Each Team's Most Likely Trade Asset
Now that trades will be allowed starting noon today (November 16th), teams will be rearing to begin trading again. In this post, I predict which assets from each team are most likely to be traded. While I omitted second round picks, I am including players, first round picks, and trade exceptions in this list. While certain trades have reportedly been agreed upon (such as Dennis Schroeder to the Lakers), I did not confirm any of these trades and did not act as if they had been confirmed.
Atlanta
Hawks
The Hawks are in an interesting place where they have 8
guaranteed spots filled, no dead money from cutting free agents, and they could
have north of $40 million in cap space.
I also don’t expect they will resign most of their free agents; it’s
possible they try for Jeff Teague (I expect he’ll have some suitors) or Damian
Jones and guarantee Brandon Goodwin’s contract for next season. They’re also at a spot where it’s probably
best to rebuild but they will probably try to make some moves to compete; some
trades would probably involve Cam Reddish, Kevin Huerter, De’Andre Hunter, John
Collins, or Bruno Fernando. It’s also
possible to see Dewayne Dedmon get traded if they opt to pursue more of a
rebuild route. I imagine they will also make
some trades to receive assets while taking on large salaries due to their cap space. I think the most likely to be traded is Collins;
they traded for Clint Capela who gives them more of a defensive presence at
center and probably won’t cost as much as Collins. Collins is up for an extension and I don’t
believe he will provide the long-term defense needed to pair with Young. He also is more easily traded before he signs
that extension if it approaches a max deal.
Most
likely: John Collins
Other possibilities:
Kevin Huerter, Dewayne Dedmon, Cam Reddish, De’Andre Hunter
Boston
Celtics
The Celtics made their third Conference Finals in four seasons
but seemed to lose their passion against the Miami Heat and lost in a six-game
series that felt like it was at most five.
They have a strong young duo in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but the
team beyond that is filled with questions.
The team will not trade Kemba Walker and I doubt they trade Marcus
Smart. Robert Williams, Grant Williams,
and Carsen Edwards aren’t locks but I bet they remain with the team. Gordon Hayward (player option) might be
traded considering he’s already received interest from Indiana, but he is a
talented player who fits well with the team.
However, he will probably receive interest from another team if he opts
out and signs a long-term deal (a team like the Hawks make sense, but don’t
rule out Detroit or New York). Enes
Kanter will probably be gone after next season, but he has a player option and might
instead opt out. Semi Ojeleye probably
won’t be back after struggling offensively again, but he has a team option so
Boston could decline that instead. A
draft pick is guaranteed to be traded considering they have 3 first rounders,
but it honestly could be any of them (or all of them). Given this uncertainty, I think the player most
likely to be traded is Vincent Poirier.
He was brought in as an option to give some starting center minutes, but
was one struggled mightily and fell out of the rotation quickly. His contract only costs $2.6 million for one
year left, so he is most likely to be thrown in as a salary matching purposes
or as potential sweetener.
Most likely:
Vincent Poirier
Other
possibilities: Enes Kanter (player option), Gordon Hayward
(player option)
Brooklyn
Nets
The Nets are counting on Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving to be
healthy next year. While their current
roster looks to pair them and DeAndre Jordan with several players largely younger
than them, they are also in a difficult position with the salary cap. Even if they decline Garrett Temple’s team
option and don’t guarantee Timothé Luwawu-Cabarrot’s contract, they still have
over $130 million reserved prior to resigning Joe Harris. I expect some combination of Caris LaVert,
Spencer Dinwiddie, Taurean Waller-Prince, and Jarrett Allen along with some of
their other young players will be traded this offseason for a stronger third
option. LaVert’s value will never be
higher due to what I expect will be an awkward fit with Durant and Irving, but
they certainly recognize his talent after his performance in the Bubble. I think Allen will almost certainly be traded. He is eligible for an extension this
offseason and giving one to him might be viewed as the organization favoring Allen
over Jordan, which will probably rub Durant and Irving the wrong way (this
seems to be more glaring after Atkinson’s tenure). Allen is a good player and can give them
something or someone in return, so expect them to make it so he doesn’t just
walk.
Most
likely: Jarrett Allen
Other
possibilities: Caris LaVert, Taurean Waller-Prince, Spencer
Dinwiddie
Charlotte
Hornets
The Hornets are one of the few teams that has cap room to
spend this offseason. I’d be surprised
if they sign an expensive free agent or make any major trades, but I expect
there to be some trades. Ultimately, I
think who they draft depends on who they select with the 3rd pick in
the draft. I wouldn’t be too surprised
to see Cody Zeller traded at some point since he only has 1 year remaining and
$15.4 million isn’t too hard to match. If
they extend Devonte’ Graham, Terry Rozier might be traded. Cody Martin could be traded if matching
salaries is needed. I think the most
likely trade target would be Malik Monk.
He hasn’t played as well as expected upon being drafted so far, but he
still has been good in glimpses. Even
though he had a career worst 3P% (28.4), he had career highs in minutes (21.3),
points (10.3), FG% (43.4), 2-point attempts (5.2), 2P% (54.2), and eFG% (49.4). While the dip in 3-point percentage might be
concerning to some, it’s clear that Monk realized he needed to find other ways
to adjust while struggling. It also
should be noted that he has shot 85% from the free throw line for his career,
so I doubt this is a permanent trend. Despite
all that, I don’t think he’s in Charlotte’s long-term plans and I believe a
change in plans would be great for him.
Most
likely: Malik Monk
Other
possibilities: Cody
Martin, Cody Zeller, Terry Rozier
Chicago
Bulls
It’s tough to predict what the Bulls will do this offseason
considering the new executives and coaching staff of the team. I don’t expect them to trade their draft
pick; while they could miss out on one of the most sought-after players in the
draft, there are several promising players expected to go after them. I don’t think they would totally tank
considering they just hired Billy Donovan (who left the Thunder when they were
looking to rebuild), but if they start struggling, we might see a rebuild. I don’t think they’ll trade players on rookie
deals like Lauri Markkanen or Wendell Carter, especially since they’d be
selling low on them at this point. I doubt
Zach LaVine would be traded unless they are given a king’s ransom for him or
are really struggling and decide he’s not the answer. While they would probably love to trade Cristiano
Felicio, I doubt any team would actually agree to it unless the Bulls attach at
least one pick (possibly more; the contract is that bad for him). I think Thaddeus Young is likely to be
traded; there was some tension between him and the previous front office and
coach, but he is still a valuable piece for other teams. Tomáš Satoranský also feels like a possibility
to be traded since he could be a valuable backup guard for several teams. Keep an eye on Luke Kornet or Ryan Arcidiacono
to also be thrown in deals.
Most
likely: Thaddeus Young
Other
possibilities: Tomáš Satoranský, Luke Kornet, Ryan Arcidiacono
Cleveland
Cavaliers
I consider the Cavs to be in a strange situation: they have a strange combination of young guys
who have looked good so far, young guys who have not looked particularly good
yet, and some veterans who are (for the most part) expensive. While that’s not a bad thing for a rebuilding
team, it makes it difficult to predict who will be traded. While I expect Tristian Thompson will resign,
I will not include him in my predictions since he is a free agent. The ideal player to trade might be Dante
Exum, but I don’t see many (if any) teams wanting him. Typically, the most talked about trade target
is Kevin Love, but I think Andre Drummond is more likely this year. I believe more teams will target big men after
watching Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo dominate during the playoffs, and a
strong rebounding Drummond might be appealing.
Larry Nance Jr. and Cedi Osman are also possibilities to be traded.
Most
likely: Andre Drummond
Other
possibilities: Cedi Osman, Kevin Love, Larry Nance Jr.
Dallas
Mavericks
The Mavericks played well and made the playoffs, forcing the
Clippers to six games. They also don’t
have many major contributors entering free agency, but also don’t have much cap
room. I expect they will try to trade
for somebody like Victor Oladipo if he becomes available or another player with
one year left who can contribute, but I don’t know who would be traded in these
cases. Dwight Powell will not be traded
due to his injury. Boban Marjanović might
be thrown into a trade but playing less than 10 minutes per game probably isn’t
particularly appealing when paying him $3.5 million. I can’t see Dallas wanting to trade Seth
Curry or Tim Hardaway Jr. if possible, but this could change if the right
player became available. If they were
trading Justin Jackson, they would be selling low on him at that point, so he
would only be included if being thrown into the trade. If Willie Cauley-Stein opts in, he might be
traded, but he’s another guy who would be filler. That leaves Delon Wright, Maxi Kleber, and Dorian
Finney-Smith. I currently think Kleber
is most likely out of those three assuming they continue using Kristaps
Porzingis at center some, giving them a lot of depth at the position in Kleber,
Powell (once he returns from injury), Cauley-Stein, and Marjanović. While Kleber might be the best of that group
outside Porzingis (pending how Powell is upon returning from injury),
Cauley-Stein should be able to contribute at least 15 minutes a game and Marjanović
around 5-10. If Powell returns and can
be solid for 15-20 minutes a game, expect Kleber to be expendable since he
could have a nice return.
Most
likely: Maxi Kleber
Other
possibilities: Delon Wright, Dorian Finney-Smith
Denver
Nuggets
The Nuggets made a surprise run to the Western Conference
Finals thanks in large part to Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray and are looking to
build on that. There are rumors that
they could try to target a third star (probably a shooting guard or combo
guard), but I have no idea who will be traded in this case. Michael Porter is reportedly off the table
and Jerami Grant will probably decline his player option (I do expect him to
resign, however). I think the most
likely to be traded is Gary Harris due to salary and positional purposes. Maybe Will Barton will get traded, but I don’t
think his stock is particularly high right now.
Otherwise, that leaves Monte Morris, Keita Bates-Diop, and Vlatko Čančar;
giving up Morris isn’t desirable, but he might be necessary.
Most
likely: Gary Harris
Other
possibilities: Monte Morris, Will Barton, Keita Bates-Diop, Vlatko
Čančar
Detroit
Pistons
The Pistons are one of the few teams that has a massive contract
signed for multiple years but still has cap space for this season. They have made it clear they are rebuilding
by cutting Reggie Jackson and trading Andre Drummond for next to nothing last
season, but they still haven’t parted ways with Blake Griffin or Derrick
Rose. Ideally, the three guys to trade
would be Griffin, Rose, and Tony Snell.
While Rose should be the most likely, I could see a team taking a risk
on Griffin due to how he was during the 2019 season. However, the player I think is most likely to
be traded is Luke Kennard. He was in
trade rumors during the season and is eligible for an extension. While he is only 24, I could see them not expecting
he will be a part of the team upon the completed rebuild.
Most
likely: Luke Kennard
Other
possibilities: Blake Griffin, Derrick Rose, Tony Snell
Golden
State Warriors
The Warriors are in a strange situation: it makes sense to make a big trade, but their
assets are polarizing to say the least.
Some individuals (mostly fans, but some analysts as well) act as if they
have an offer that would make the Bucks give them Giannis Antetokounmpo but saying
that’s far-fetched is an understatement. I doubt Andrew Wiggins will go anywhere this
offseason since so far, he is still the same player he was in Minnesota and
remains one of the more difficult contracts to trade. They have a trade exception which could be
useful. They also have several young
players, but I don’t know who would be valued in a trade; probably Eric
Paschall, maybe Marquese Chriss, otherwise I’m not sure. I expect the 2nd pick in the draft
will be traded. Even if they can’t get anyone
that they love for that pick, it wouldn’t surprise me if they try to trade
back. There are players who might be
able to contribute more at an immediate level while costing less later in the
draft.
Most
likely: 2nd pick in the draft
Other possibilities:
Trade Exception, Eric Paschall, Marquese Chriss, Jordan Poole
Houston
Rockets
The Rockets are in one of the stranger and more uncertain situations
entering next season: new coach, new GM,
no cap space, no draft picks, same core, and a disappointing season for a club
with championship aspirations. On top of
that, their stars are disgruntled now, making the future even more dicey. I’m not certain that James Harden will be
traded, but it wouldn’t surprise me too much at this point if he asks to
be. I think Westbrook will request a
trade, but I’m not sure who they would get in return for him. It’s possible Russell Westbrook requests a
trade, but I don’t think he’s the most likely player to be traded. This leaves trade possibilities of Eric
Gordon, Robert Covington, P.J. Tucker, and Danuel House. Gordon only gets traded if another team is
either desperate to start competing or have another contract that is
undesirable (think something like Al Horford in Philadelphia). Covington is a desirable player due to his 3-and-D
skill as well as his ability to act as a big at times. Tucker has shown that he can be a valuable
defensive presence while also being a stretch four. House is an interesting case; he was kicked
out of the bubble for bringing a guest into his room, but I think the team will
effectively forgive him by the time the season starts (look no further than Rudy
Gobert and Donovan Mitchell). House is also
the cheapest out of the four, so that makes him more desirable. It’s feeling more and more like Westbrook
will be traded. I expect Gordon is most
likely to be moved since he struggled last year and he’s the most expensive. I expect Tucker could be for salary matching
purposes. I think they’ll be hesitant to
trade Covington since they gave up a pick for him.
Most likely:
Russell Westbrook
Other
possibilities. Eric Gordon, James Harden, P.J. Tucker,
Danuel House, Robert Covington
Indiana
Pacers
The Pacers have been one of the more consistent teams over
the last few years, consistently finishing in the 4th or 5th
seed while being eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. There is a chance that they finish lower given
how some other teams are supposed to play, but I still think we could see them
as a top 4 team again depending on the moves they make. Trade rumors regarding Victor Oladipo and
Myles Turner have heated up substantially.
For Oladipo, negotiations for an extension broke down last year, but he
struggled upon returning from his injury.
Turner feels more likely due to his shooting ability, defensive ability,
and Sabonis seemingly being a better fit at center, but finding the perfect
trade partner might not be as easy as some might seem due to cap space. I expect Turner is more likely to be
traded. Also keep an eye out for players
to add to a deal for salary cap purposes such as Jeremy Lamb and Doug
McDermott.
Most
likely: Myles Turner
Other
possibilities: Victor Oladipo, Doug McDermott, Jeremy Lamb,
T.J. Leaf
Los
Angeles Clippers
After potentially winning the offseason last year by signing
Kawhi Leonard and trading for Paul George, to say their second round departure
was a disappointment is an understatement; after being plagued with chemistry
issues, injuries, players attending to family matters outside the Bubble, some
chicken wings, and overall underwhelming play, coach Doc Rivers was fired and trade
rumors involving their stars began. Now
with Tyrone Lue hired, the truth is that they’re not trading Leonard and they
can’t trade George since Leonard will likely demand a trade. I don’t see Ivaca Zubac being traded and they
won’t get the return necessary to trade Patrick Beverly or Lou Williams. I think the most likely player to be traded
is Landry Shamet; he’s young, a great shooter, and wasn’t somebody that was
trusted as much in games. There will be
a team that would love to acquire him since I think he could fit in with a competitive
team or a rebuilding team. I could also
see them trying to trade Rodney McGruder, Mfiondu Kabengele, and Terance Mann
to make salaries match.
Most
likely: Landry Shamet
Other
possibilities: Mfiondu Kabengele, Terance Mann, Rodney
McGruder
Los
Angeles Lakers
The 2020 Champions will be in good shape once they resign
Anthony Davis (I don’t expect they’ll let him walk) to bring him back alongside
LeBron James. Despite that, there isn’t
a clear front-runner for next year and with the potential for Rajon Rondo and Kentavious
Caldwell-Pope to leave in free agency, they will more than likely need to add
at least one more piece. Danny Green is
probably the most likely due to salary reasons and is likely the most
expendable. I also expect Kyle Kuzma
will be traded due to his awkward fit.
Unless they expect an NBA ready player at 28 in the draft, expect that to
be traded as well. After a lack of
minutes last season, Talen Horton-Tucker is a trade possibility as well. Ultimately, who gets traded depends on what
value the return is.
Most likely:
Danny Green
Other
possibilities: Kyle Kuzma, 28th pick in the Draft,
Talen Horton-Tucker
Memphis
Grizzlies
The Grizzlies were a few years ahead of schedule when they
wound up playing in the play-in game and finishing 9th. That said, I’m not sure exactly what the team
will try to do this offseason or season.
I think the most obvious trade piece is Gorgui Dieng; despite being a talented
defender who would be useful to the team, he is in the last year of his deal
and is a solid defensive center, a skill that could be coveted this
offseason. He also improved his 3-point
shooting, which could help his trade value.
If they resign Josh Jackson, Justise Winslow could become expendable. I’m not sure they do that considering he has
yet to play a game for Memphis. If they
resign De’Anthony Melton, Tyus Jones might be viewed as expendable, but he and
Winslow could depend on each other due to their skills as ball handlers. Kyle Anderson might be a desirable player to
trade after an off year, but I don’t know that there will be anybody willing to
take him on. I think what they do will
really depend on the fate of Melton and Jackson in free agency.
Most
likely: Gorgui Dieng
Other
possibilities: Justise Winslow, Tyus Jones, Kyle Anderson
Miami Heat
Miami thrived in the Bubble and surprised the world to make
it to the Finals. They are certainly not
going to risk their cap space for the 2021 offseason since Giannis
Antetokounmpo will be a free agent by that time, but they could still make some
trades. I think the most likely players
that could be traded are Andre Iguodala and Kelly Olynyk. While Olynyk will always have value as a big
who can shoot while being solid defensively, Iguodala still has the defensive
acumen and the reputation that will net more value in a trade. We could also see Chris Silva or possibly KZ
Okpala if they opt to include them for salary purposes. I think the only way we see Tyler Herro,
Duncan Robinson, or Kendrick Nunn is if it is a big-name player.
Most
likely: Andre Iguodala
Other
possibilities: Kelly Olynyk, Chris Silva, KZ Okpala
Milwaukee
Bucks
After a disappointing playoff to follow the best regular
season record in the NBA, it makes sense that the Bucks will be making some
moves. This is Giannis Antetokounmpo’s
last year under contract and, unless he signs a super-max extension, the team
is desperate to try to win to entice him to stay. The most obvious players to not be traded are
Giannis (that would be counterintuitive) and Khris Middleton (his contract is probably
too big to be moved and he is an ideal player for the Bucks to keep). The most obvious trade piece is Eric Bledsoe,
a guard who has consistently played well in the regular season and consistently
struggled in the playoffs. There’s bound
to be a team that would see the value of his regular season success. Some other stronger possibilities are George
Hill, Ersan Illyasova (non-guaranteed contract), and D.J. Wilson, while some
less likely ones include Brook Lopez and Robin Lopez (player option). I doubt they trade the 24th pick;
there’s not much in terms of veterans that pick would be able to net.
Most
likely: Eric Bledsoe
Other
possibilities: George Hill, Ersan Illyasova, D.J. Wilson
Minnesota
Timberwolves
The Timberwolves of next season could be one of the most
polarizing teams: they have two strong
offensive players in Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell, but those players
are a disaster defensively (Russell isn’t a good defender and Towns doesn’t
consistently try on that end). I believe
that they really need a player like Robert Covington, but they traded him to
the Rockets at the last deadline. They
did luck out in the lottery with the number 1 pick, but there are rumors that
they could explore trading this pick. In
particular, out of the three players often considered the top 3 (Anthony
Edwards, LaMelo Ball, and Jacob Wiseman), Edwards isn’t always focused on
defense, Ball doesn’t look like he’s worked a day on defense in his life, and
there are questions about how Towns and Wiseman can coexist. I believe that it’s most likely that they
trade this pick to trade down in the draft, where there are some players who
might fight better with their stars. If
James Johnson opts into his player option, he could also be traded. I don’t think they should trade any of their
players on rookie contracts, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Omari Spellman, Jacob
Evans, or even Jarrett Culver get traded.
Most likely:
1st pick in the draft
Other
possibilities: James Johnson (player option), Jarrett Culver,
Omari Spellman, Jacob Evans
New
Orleans Pelicans
After missing the playoffs and hiring Stan Van Gundy as
their new coach, the Pelicans appear to be competing for the playoffs next
year, but I’m not sure that’s necessarily the best strategy given their
competition in the West. There are
several factors that can be accounted for to determine if they will make the
playoffs: what kind of shooting will
Lonzo Ball bring, what kind of defense will Brandon Ingram (restricted free
agent) bring, what roster moves do they make, how do more raw talents like
Jaxson Hayes and Nickeil Alexander-Walker develop. However, their success starts and ends with
what shape Zion Williamson is in; they struggled when he was injured during the
season and were abysmal when he was out of shape during the Bubble. That said, there aren’t any moves that scream
out to me for this teams. There are
rumors to trade Jrue Holiday, but I don’t think they make that trade unless
they are struggling around the trade deadline.
Nicolò Melli is a possibility to be traded, but I think they recognize
his value if Hayes isn’t ready for a bigger role. There is a universe where we could see Hayes,
Alexander-Walker, or Josh Hart traded, but I think they would need a bigger
name player in order to pull the trigger.
While there’s been speculation surrounding J.J. Redick, it’s sounding
like he was part of why Van Gundy signed on to coach there, so he won’t be
traded unless they struggle mightily.
Most likely:
Jrue Holiday
Other
possibilities: Nicolò Melli, Nickeil Alexander-Walker
New York Knicks
The Knicks have been in a constant state of being in a bad
situation for the better part of the last decade, but I think they are actually
in a good situation for this offseason.
The biggest reason is that I have grown on the idea of Tom Thibodeau as
the head coach of the Knicks. I
originally was hoping they would hire Kenny Atkinson for his development of the
Nets younger players, but Thibs is an amazing coach for developing young talent
and will also be good if they are more competitive in the next few years. The idea of him working with Mitchell
Robinson and Frank Ntilikina defensively is something I look forward to
seeing. Additionally, they have a few options
they could take this offseason. They offered
the contracts they did last offseason in order to have a substantial amount of
cap space for next offseason, meaning that Bobby Portis, Taj Gibson, and Wayne
Ellington have team options for this year, Elfrid Payton and Wayne Ellington
have nonguaranteed contracts (partially in Ellington’s case), and Julius Randle
has a partially guaranteed contract for next season. With that, they could bring them all back and
keep largely the same lineup, bring them back and trade them if the market is
there, or clear enough space to make a massive offer to free agents like
Brandon Ingram (restricted) and Fred VanVleet.
I personally would do the last one, but the issue is that I have no idea
what their approach for next year is. I
have also heard of them trying to trade for a player like Chris Paul, but I
think those rumors have tamed a bit. It’s
sounding like they would be willing to take on large salaries as well. They could also trade some of their young
players that they haven’t been as impressed with, such as Kevin Knox, Dennis
Smith Jr., or Ntilikina. As such, I
think the most likely piece that’s traded is their 8th pick in the
draft. This pick is a good piece to
trade because there are several teams looking to trade up or trade back; the
Knicks have the opportunity to do whichever they thing is better if they move
this pick.
Most likely:
8th pick in the draft
Other
possibilities: Julius Randle, Dennis Smith Jr., Bobby Portis
(team option)
Oklahoma
City Thunder
The Thunder had a surprise year last year; I predicted they
would finish 14th last year and they finished in 4th
(probably the furthest off I’ve ever been for a team). However, rumors have been swirling about them
focusing more on rebuilding for long term success and seemed to be confirmed
when coach Billy Donovan left due to wanting to coach a competitive team. After the year they had last year, Chris Paul
is now viewed as a positive trade asset; given that and the winning culture he
instilled in the younger players, I expect he will be traded and support that
decision. I also expect they will trade
Dennis Schröder and try to trade Steven Adams (easier said than done with that
contract). Also, don’t be surprised if
they look to dump Terrance Ferguson given his recent lawsuits regarding an
alleged rape.
Most
likely: Chris Paul
Other possibilities:
Dennis Schröder, Terrance Ferguson, Steven Adams
Orlando
Magic
While the Magic have snuck into the playoffs each of the
last two seasons, this season could be more difficult due to the injury of
Jonathan Isaac. With Isaac set to miss
the entire season due to an ACL injury, it’s not guaranteed that they will make
it. Further, the heavily speculated
trade of Aaron Gordon might not occur until next offseason. I wouldn’t be surprised if Gordon gets traded
during the season, but I would wait until after the season if I were the Magic;
doing so could maximize his trade value, incorporate teams that might not care
about cap space for 2021 anymore, and give the team a better idea about Isaac’s
status. If the team starts struggling,
we could see Evan Fournier (player option), Terrance Ross, Al-Farouq Aminu, or
potentially (but not as likely) Nikola Vučević on the trade block. Given Isaac’s injury, I think the most likely
player to be traded is Mo Bamba. He’s
stuck behind Vučević at the center position and probably won’t be able to
develop much more as long as that’s the case.
Bamba is no longer the sought-after big man that Boston GM Danny Ainge
considered giving up the 27th pick and Jaylen Brown to trade up for
him (he kept the pick and selected Robert Williams with it), but he is still an
athletic 21 year old who has shown potential on the defensive end and is
developing a three-pointer. There are
certainly rebuilding teams that could be interested in taking a chance on that
while they can buy low.
Most likely: Mo Bamba
Other possibilities:
Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier (player option), Terrence Ross
Philadelphia
76ers
The 76ers had championship aspirations entering last season
and finishing 6th and not advancing past the first round was
certainly a disappointment. They currently
have just shy of $130 million committed between Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Tobias
Harris, Al Horford, and Josh Richardson, but don’t expect them to keep this
starting lineup. Neither Embiid nor Simmons
will be traded next year; they are both stars and have shown they can succeed
with the right lineup around them. Since
it is safe to assume this was not the right lineup, expect them to try to move each
of the other starters. Harris might have
had the best season out of the three, but he also is entering year 2 of a 5-year,
$180 million deal; in short, it’ll be tough to find a suitor willing to pay so
much. Also, he played well under Doc
Rivers in Los Angeles, so Rivers might like to keep him. Richardson only is only owed $10.8 million
next year and has a player option, but he might not bring back as much as
Philadelphia would hope for. Horford is
owed $27.5 million next year and $27 million the following year, but the final
year of his deal is only partially guaranteed (it’s still $14.5 million, but some
teams will ignore that part); he also had arguably the worst year out of the three. I think that out of the three, Horford is
most likely to be traded despite the off year because there are a few other disgruntled
players in similar price ranges that he could be traded for or included in a
trade for (see Sacramento Kings). Unless
a team gets desperate, I don’t see Harris getting traded; of course, you never
know when a team like the Knicks could be lurking (just kidding…partially). Zhaire Smith might be thrown into a trade as
well.
Most
likely: Al Horford
Other
possibilities: Josh Richardson, Zhaire Smith, Tobias Harris
Phoenix
Suns
The Suns are coming off an exciting 8-0 Bubble performance
where they narrowly missed the play-in game but are still competing in a
competitive Western Conference. That
said, there is optimism that they can at least remain a threat for a playoff spot. Depending on how they treat free agency, they
can range from having a decent amount of cap space to having none. Since they’ve been linked to targeting Fred
VanVleet, they might have to create some cap space in order to acquire
him. They also are rumored as a Chris
Paul suitor. I think the most likely
trade they would make is trading Kelly Oubre.
He didn’t play during the Bubble due to surgery, only has 1 year
remaining on his deal, and had a career high 18.7 PPG. Another option is Ricky Rubio, who had a
career high 36.1 3P% while also dishing 8.8 APG, but he does have an additional
year remaining; he was previously linked to Indiana prior to the season, so I’m
curious if Phoenix dangles him and some others to try and get Oladipo if they
can’t get Paul. Two other options are
Frank Kaminsky (team option) and Ty Jerome.
Most
likely: Kelly Oubre
Other
possibilities: Ricky Rubio, Ty Jerome, Frank Kaminsky
Portland
Trail Blazers
The Trail Blazers were saddled with injuries this year,
causing the 2019 Western Conference runner-up to limp into the playoffs and
last 5 games. They won’t have much (if
any) cap space, but there are limitations as to what trades they would
make. For starters, Damian Lillard is
obviously off-limits, and I don’t see C.J. McCollum or Jusuf Nurkić being
traded either. They will probably need
more wing players to team up with that combo.
I would not be surprised if they try to trade Trevor Ariza to get younger
and potentially cheaper wing players. If
they make a trade, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Rodney Hood or Zach
Collins. If a bigger name becomes available,
they have several intriguing young players they can offer, including Collins,
Gary Trent Jr, Nassir Little, and Anfernee Simons. If they are forced to target a smaller name,
don’t be surprised if Simons gets traded.
While he had his moments, he was a little underwhelming shooting (39.9
FG%, 32.2 3P%, 46.9 eFG%), more underwhelming playmaking (1.4 APG, also dropped
from 3.3 to 2.4 assists per 36 minutes), and horrible defensively (negative in
just about every advanced stat you look at).
Despite that, he’s only 21, showed he can be great when he can get to
the rim, had moments where he could make clutch shots, and was a good free
throw shooter (82.6%). As long as
Lillard and McCollum are the two best players and Simons remains at his size,
he will just be a backup, and I think the Trail Blazers can get more for him
now due to his upside. Also, keep on eye
on them for potentially trading up in the draft for someone like Isaac Okoro.
Most
likely: Anfernee Simons
Other
possibilities: 16th pick in the draft, Zach
Collins, Rodney Hood, Trevor Ariza
Sacramento
Kings
Barring any trades, the Kings could have a lot of money
locked into a few players: Harrison
Barnes just finished year 1 of a 4-year, $85 million deal, Buddy Hield is
entering year 1 of his 4-year, $86 million extension, Corey Joseph is entering
year 2 of a 3-year, $37.2 million (year 3 is partially guaranteed), Bogdan Bogdanović
is a restricted free agent, and De’Aaron Fox is eligible for an extension. However, Hield is reportedly so unhappy with
the team that he’s stopped responding to coach Luke Walton’s texts, so I expect
he will be traded. While he’s expensive,
there are teams that are looking for shooting (most notably Philadelphia). Harrison Barnes and Corey Joseph are also
possibilities to be traded. We could
also see Nemanja Bjelica be traded if his contract is guaranteed. I expect Jabari Parker to opt in and while
Sacramento would probably like to trade him, I don’t think they’ll find an
offer.
Most
likely: Buddy Hield
Other
possibilities: Harrison Barnes, Corey Joseph, Nemanja
Bjelica
San
Antonio Spurs
Now that the Spurs’ playoff streak is finally over, it makes
sense to believe the Spurs will trade away a few of their veterans and start
the rebuilding process. However, Gregg
Popovich is 72, so he might want to try to compete for the playoffs and sneak
into the Finals. That said, I don’t
believe that the Spurs would trade any of their notable younger players in an attempt
to make the playoffs. There are four
players in their thirties who could be traded:
DeMar DeRozan (player option), LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Gay, and Patty
Mills. I don’t think they will trade
Mills; even if the team is rebuilding, he will prove to be too valuable to lose
his presence. I expect DeRozan and Aldridge
will have a certain appeal from teams, but Gay is substantially cheaper. While Gay isn’t as good as the other two, he
is a better shooter, can be strong in the starting lineup or off the bench, and
showed that he can even play center in certain situations. I think he is the most likely to be traded.
Most
likely: Rudy Gay
Other
possibilities: DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge
Toronto
Raptors
I can’t imagine the Raptors will trade many players, but I
also didn’t expect them to trade DeMar DeRozan for Kawhi Leonard, so I say that
tepidly. That said, I expect that Pascal
Siakam is off the table and Kyle Lowry and OG Anunoby are only available if it
nets them a superstar. It’s possible
that they guarantee and trade Terrance Davis and Matt Thomas, but I doubt that’s
their ideal choice; I doubt they would guarantee Dewan Hernandez’s contract, so
don’t expect him to be traded. That
leaves Norman Powell, Patrick McCaw, and Stanley Johnson (player option). Johnson and McCaw wouldn’t have a strong
return unless they’re used in a larger deal for salary purposes. Powell had a career year this past year and
his salary is fairly reasonable; if a team isn’t trying to have cap space for
the summer of 2021, they might jump on board for him. I think he is most likely to be traded this
season by far, but he was valuable last year due to the team’s injuries
Most likely:
Norman Powell
Other possibilities:
Patrick McCaw, Stanley Johnson (Player Option)
Utah Jazz
The Jazz are in a situation that is difficult to predict
what their offseason will look like:
they don’t have much cap space, only have one free agent, don’t have
many contracts that would necessarily make sense to trade, and finished 6th
while losing in the first round. In
short, it feels like they would make a trade, but I’m not sure any player
screams out as an obvious choice. Adding
to that is the fact that the Jazz were just sold to a 42-year-old Ryan Smith, a
lifelong Jazz superfan. This adds some
intrigue to it because Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell are eligible for extensions
this offseason, with Gobert being eligible for a super-max deal. It’s easy to figure that Gobert shouldn’t be
given a super-max deal despite his elite defensive ability, but Smith’s presence
as an owner could be something reminiscent of Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban,
who values winning in addition to success and seems willing to open his checkbook. Additionally, the team had a 3-1 lead against
the Nuggets (they blew it but ignoring that) without Bojan Bogdanović and had
the season they did despite a rough season from Mike Conley. All this adds up to the fact that I don’t think
it’s totally unfeasible for the Jazz to offer a large extension to Gobert, especially
with Conley’s contract in the last year.
I expect the other moves would be cost-cutting moves; I could see Ed
Davis be dumped after a tough year while only being owed $5 million for 1 year and
also the team trading down if a player they like is still available. I only see Gobert being traded if there is a
massive dispute in negotiations.
Most
likely: Ed Davis
Other
possibilities: 23rd pick in the draft, Rudy
Gobert
Washington
Wizards
The Wizards were invited to the Bubble in what I considered
to make it look like there was some competition for playoff spots in the
East. Ultimately, they won one game
against the Maine Red Claws…I mean Boston Celtics without their key
players. Of course, Bradley Beal and Dāvis
Bertāns also sat out, making it clearer that their presence was partially to let
more teams in the East in, partially for comedic sake, and partially for
development sake. The team is hoping to
resign Bertāns, but beyond that won’t have much cap space. Despite all the trade rumors, they won’t
trade Beal in the offseason; with John Wall looking healthy they’ll look to try
that pairing one last time. I don’t
necessarily oppose that mindset, but Beal’s trade value is incredibly high
right now. There is the chance they
trade him during the regular season if they struggle. Unless they make major changes, I don’t
expect this team to make the playoffs; I don’t think their defense will be good
enough and I have my doubts about how Wall will be after close to two years
away from the NBA. Even if he plays well,
I’d be surprised if they do better than 8th unless they make a major
change that I don’t foresee. I think the
only other moves that I possibly see are if they trade Ish Smith to cut back on
salary (unlikely) or trade their draft pick (I only see this if they have a
player in mind). I think they might run
it back with a similar team to see how John Wall can be with the current
team. Ultimately, I think Beal is the
most likely to be traded if he requests a trade midseason, but I don’t think it
happens.
Most
likely: Bradley Beal
Other
possibilities: 9th pick in the draft, Ish Smith
What possible trades are you looking forward to seeing? Be sure to comment!
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