Winners and Losers of the NBA Offseason

 This offseason started off to an exciting bang as trades opened on November 16^th (Monday), the Draft was on November 18^th (Wednesday), and free agency began November 20^th (Friday).  NBA fans alike were having the time of their lives being careful not to miss any Woj bomb this week because a few minutes away could result in missing a Jrue Holiday trade.  Ultimately, rosters are largely what they are going to be to start the season (barring a sudden James Harden trade), so now I will list some winners and losers of the offseason.  I have also toyed with the idea of releasing offseason grades for teams as well, but this will include some teams, players, and others.

Winner:  Los Angeles Lakers

While they lost Rajon Rondo, Danny Green, Dwight Howard, and JaVale McGee, they replaced them with Dennis Schroder, Pau Gasol, Montrezl Harrell, and Wesley Matthews.  I consider Schroder clearly better than Rondo, Gasol and Harrell better offensively (and Gasol possibly better defensively) than Howard or McGee, and Matthews an inexpensive replacement for Green.  They also extended LeBron James and Anthony Davis, who are both locked up for several more years, setting the core in place for years to come.  I can’t say I’ve heard of many situations involving extending star players and upgrading rotational players in the same offseason.

Loser:  Houston Rockets

Acquiring Christian Wood was a good signing for the Rockets, but beyond that they got rid of Robert Covington for future assets and then flipped Russell Westbrook for an oft injured John Wall who isn’t a strong player off the ball and a future pick.  They also had to replace their coach and GM and didn’t go with a coach that star James Harden was hoping for.  Adding to the fun was the Harden holdout and now you have yourself loads of questions for the short-term and long-term future of the team.

Winner:  Big Men

While the focus is on Anthony Davis signing a 5-year, $190M max deal and Bam Adebayo signing a max extension, there were several centers on the market and after Davis and Adebayo made it to the NBA Finals with their respective teams, teams looked to build up.  Other big men that signed at least $10M contracts include Christian Wood, Montrezl Harrell, Serge Ibaka, Paul Millsap, Jakob Poeltl, Aron Baynes, Tristan Thompson, Derrick Favors, JaMychal Green, Mason Plumlee, Chris Boucher, and Meyers Leonard.  I consider this major because salary was supposed to be down in the pandemic year, teams are still saving for the 2021 free agency year, and centers are supposedly a dying breed.  However, the league is a copycat league and since L.A. and Miami thrived with at least one star who is a big man, many teams will try to bulk up their size to stop them.

Loser:  Dwight Howard

Howard tweeted out how he was excited to return to L.A., only to delete that tweet not long later and not resign with L.A.  After all the big men mentioned above signed solid deals and many are making that money on potential playoff teams, Howard signed a 1-year minimum deal to back up Joel Embiid on the 76ers.  Admittedly, Howard will get playing time since it seems inevitable that somebody on the 76ers will get injured (and it feels safe to expect this from Embiid), so he will get playing time.  That said, he went from platooning the center spot with JaVale McGee on a championship team to backing up a young star on a team that is trying to make a name for themselves after disappointing.  That must feel like a little bit of a slap in the face.

 

Winner:  Gordon Hayward

After speculation regarding whether Hayward would opt into his player option worth over $30M, he shocked several by opting out of it despite dealing with multiple injuries and there being less money due to the pandemic and teams holding off until next year.  After sign-and-trade talks with the Pacers (where he was rumored to be offered just over $100M), Charlotte swooped in and offered him a 4-year, $120M deal.  Now, he is the star on Charlotte, is making around as much as he did on his last contract, and could be a hero in Charlotte if he helps them sneak into the playoffs this year.

Loser:  Klay Thompson

There has been much focus on how much the Warriors will be affected by Thompson’s injury, but there seems to be a lack of focus on two major points:  how will Thompson play after 2 years away from the game and, more importantly, how is he and his health impacted by a now second major injury?  Two major freak injuries do not bode well for anyone, and I can’t say I have much confidence in his ability to return at a strong level after missing 2 seasons.

 

Winner:  Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks swiped Bogdan Bogdanovic as a restricted free agent, who will fit nicely alongside Trae Young as a strong shooter and scorer who can defend some.  Additionally, they added Danilo Gallinari (a volume scoring forward who has willingly agreed to come off the bench behind John Collins), Kris Dunn (one of the best defensive guards in the league), Rajon Rondo (a strong leader who really shines in the playoffs), and Solomon Hill (a quality leader and guy who can play multiple positions in small doses) in free agency.  In the draft, they obtained Onyeka Okongwu, a strong defender who projects to be a playmaker (and was one of my favorite prospects in the draft) and has earned comparisons to Bam Adebayo, and Skylar Mays (signed to a two-way contract), a guard who can shoot and play off the ball.  They are also adding Clint Capela, who they acquired in a trade at the deadline last season but didn’t play for them due to injury, who I expect to fit well alongside their team.  Ultimately, they have a team that should be able to mesh and grow together while competing for the playoffs this year.

 

Loser:  Cleveland Cavaliers

Very few people seem to be discussing the Cavs’ offseason and there is a reason for that.  After drafting Isaac Okoro, their next biggest move might have been trading for JaVale McGee; while I like him, this is a team that was rumored to be trying to find new homes for Kevin Love and Andre Drummond.  Instead, they opted to trade for McGee to seemingly compensate for the fact that they let Tristian Thompson walk.

Winner:  Phoenix Suns

They were able to retain most of the players that played during their 8-0 stretch in the Bubble and they signed Jae Crowder, who will help as a 3-and-D player while bringing a hard-nosed attitude that will be appreciated by this team.  That doesn’t even mention the move of the offseason:  acquiring Chris Paul for Kelly Oubre Jr. (who is great but didn’t play in the Bubble), Ricky Rubio, two players who didn’t do much for Phoenix (Jalen Lecque and Ty Jerome), and a 2022 1^st round pick.  He gave his approval to be traded there and should make the team better, especially Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton.

 

Loser:  Detroit Pistons

They gave away Andre Drummond for next to nothing last year, seeming to indicate that they were ready to start a rebuild.  They proved this true by acquiring three first round picks in the draft and trading Luke Kennard and Tony Snell…then they signed a 3 year, $60M deal with Jerami Grant and a 3 year, $27M a year deal with Mason Plumlee.  They also let Christian Wood walk away after the Rockets offered him 3 years, $41M.  While I am always in favor of teams who deciding they want to compete for 8^th instead of finish last, I don’t think this team has a plan; if they did, they probably would still have either Wood or Drummond.

Winner:  Russell Westbrook

After Houston had an inconsistent season, Westbrook will have more of an opportunity to play like he did in OKC with the Wizards.  While Bradley Beal has emerged as a star, I could see him playing a similar role to that of Paul George in OKC.  Westbrook is joining a team that was elite during the regular season on offense and putrid at defense; while Westbrook won’t help on the defensive end, I could see them being even more explosive given what he did in Oklahoma City.

Loser:  John Wall

Sure, being healthy and the change in scenery might wind up being a victory for Wall.  However, the truth is that if James Harden stays in Houston, Wall will play off the ball a lot, which is not his strength.  If Harden is traded, Houston is likely not going to be competing so now Wall will not be on a winning team.  There really doesn’t seem to be a winning option for Wall unless he has substantially improved his shooting and ability off-ball.

Winner:  Portland Trail Blazers

They now have Robert Covington, who is a perfect alongside Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, and Jusuf Nurkic.  In addition to Nurkic returning from injury, Rodney Hood will be back, and Zach Collins will likely return in January.  Additionally, they resigned Carmelo Anthony and are bringing in Derrick Jones Jr., Enes Kanter, and Harry Giles.  After an injury-riddled season last year, they have a competitive that is also deep; the depth of teams could be tested this season with Covid-19, so that is important to have.

Loser:  Billy Donovan

Donovan left the coaching job in Oklahoma City because they didn’t want to commit to competing this season at the time.  Ultimately, he took the job in Chicago, which didn’t seem like a horrible choice at the time due to there not being a unanimous candidate for the 8^th seed.  However, Atlanta, Washington, and Charlotte all improved during the offseason and I am not certain that Chicago did.  While Chicago has some players that can be interesting, I’m not sure Donovan left for a horribly competitive team.

Winner:  The Ball family (outside Lonzo)

LaMelo was drafted 3^rd in the NBA Draft by the Charlotte Hornets, and they opted to keep him rather than trade for a big man (which would fulfill a bigger need).  He is the most likely of their young players to be a star and could be the face of the franchise if he hits his expected ceiling.  LiAngelo signed a non-guaranteed 1-year Exhibit 10 contract with the Detroit Pistons, which should be a rebuilding team and can use all the young help they can get.  It sounds like both are in the right situation.

 

Loser:  Lonzo Ball

Ball is eligible for an extension, but I expect the Pelicans to play it out with him.  While the Pelicans agreeing to trade Jrue Holiday could be viewed on first glimpse as a vote of confidence, the return included Eric Bledsoe, a guard who will command minutes.  Further, they selected Kira Lewis Jr. in the draft, who probably isn’t big enough to play the 2 and might not be quite the shooter to fit swimmingly alongside Ball.  Ball has said he is expecting a breakout year and considers himself a triple-double threat; he needs to have that if he expects to remain a major part of the Pelicans next season.

 

Winner:  The Players

It might sound strange to declare the players among the winners considering there’s a short offseason than they proposed, there is a more condensed schedule, and there was less money going around in free agency.  That said, there were 3 deals signed worth at least $100M, 6 for at least $20M a year, 19 for at least $10M a year, and 40 for at least $10M total.  This is less than many years, but this was in a year where Covid-19 and a weaker free agency class were supposed to limit salaries.  On top of that, the league has suspended marijuana testing for this year and are going to be more lenient with load management on non-televised games (the league will be stricter with nationally televised games however).  Ultimately, the biggest win might come by next offseason, when it will be in the summer again and back to a normal schedule.

Loser:  Trevor Ariza

In a five-day span, Ariza went from being a quality role player on the Trail Blazers to being traded to the Rockets, the Pistons, and then the Thunder.  In case it wasn’t bad enough for his peace of mind, the Thunder might be the worst team out of all of the teams he was briefly on (not that the Pistons will be good, and the Rockets are still up in the air).  It also might not be consolation to say that if he plays well, he will likely be traded to a better team by the deadline.

 

Winner:  NBA fans

Even if fans aren’t able to be in arenas by the end of the season (it could be possible in some markets), the fans are in for an exciting season.  In the West, the Lakers, Trailblazers and Suns got stronger, the Clippers are out for revenge, the Nuggets are trying to prove the playoffs weren’t a fluke, the Jazz are out to improve, Houston still has James Harden, Dallas and New Orleans have players who have another year of experience, the Warriors have Steph Curry again, and other teams have the opportunity to sneak in.  In the East, there seems to be 6 teams that could each win the conference:  The Bucks, Heat, Celtics, Raptors, 76ers, and Nets.  Add in enough going right for the Pacers, Hawks, Wizards, Bulls, or Hornets and this could turn out to be an interesting season.  All of this is coming on the heels of a wild week in the offseason with trades, the Draft, and free agency all starting or occurring within a 5 day span.

Loser:  Those expecting accurate playoff predictions

I am intentionally holding off as close to the season as possible to make my predictions to see if a James Harden trade shocks the world; I have lost hope in the preseason trade, but I expect him to be moved at the trade deadline.  Of course, this makes my predictions difficult; last year, I had the Thunder in 14^th since I had Chris Paul, Danilo Gallinari, and Steven Adams all being traded by the deadline (they finished 4^th instead and traded none of them at that time).  There will be things that I can’t predict:  where Harden goes, how will the Warriors be without Klay Thompson, how will guys returning from major injuries look, does a revenge tour mean Kawhi Leonard will take off fewer games, what other trades occur.  However, the biggest question of all is who gets hit by Covid-19 first during the season.