James Harden Trade
After much speculation, drama, and negotiation, a shocking
and convoluted blockbuster trade has occurred with many unexpected steps. Victor Oladipo to the Rockets? Caris LeVert to the Pacers? Jarret Allen to the Cavs? James Harden to the Nets? Well, that seems to be the one part that was
expected. Ultimately, the Nets got what
they wanted in a superstar, the Rockets got what they wanted with a star player
and a lot of draft picks, the Pacers got a player who could replace Oladipo and
would be there longer than next year, and the Cavs snuck in to get a couple
players that will improve them in the short-term and long-term. In this post, I will break down the trade and
then give my analysis and grades for each team.
All statistics and team records are according to Basketball-Reference
and are updated as of the time of the trade (the afternoon of the 13th).
Brooklyn Nets:
James Harden
Houston Rockets:
Victor Oladipo, Rodions Kurucs, Dante Exum, 4 unprotected first-round
draft picks (Brooklyn 2022, 2024, and 2026, Milwaukee 2022), and 4 unprotected
first-round pick swaps (Brooklyn 2021, 2023, 2025, 2027)
Indiana Pacers:
Caris LeVert, 1 second-round pick (Houston 2023)
Cleveland Cavaliers:
Jarrett Allen, Taurean Prince
Nets
· Received: Harden
· Gave Up: Kurucs, 3 first-round picks, 4 pick swaps, Caris LeVert, Jarrett Allen, Taurean Prince
After starting 6-6 through 12 games and dealing with a
season ending injury to Spencer Dinwiddie and Kyrie Irving vanishing unannounced
due to personal reasons, the Nets decided they were in a bit of a bind and needed
to find a way to win. Not surprisingly,
they decided that a superstar in Harden was the right move. He will help if Irving deals with any sort of
injuries (he often does) or if Kevin Durant has any sort of durability issues later
this year coming off his prior injury (so far, he looks good, but to be safe);
Harden has only played fewer than 70 games twice in his career (once was last
season and he still played 68) and has averaged 37 MPG in Houston. Over his last 3 years, he averaged 33.7 PPG,
7.9 APG, 6.2 RPG, 36.3 3P%, 54.1 eFG%, and 86.8 FT% (on 10.9 attempts per game)
while playing 218 games. While those
scoring numbers will likely drop playing with 2 stars, he still put up
incredible numbers playing with Chris Paul the first of those two years and
Russell Westbrook the other, so I’m guessing the assists will remain consistent. After Dinwiddie went down, they needed
another ballhandler, which Harden gives them.
While I wasn’t particularly worried about how Durant and
Irving would mesh (given their volatility), I am nervous about inserting Harden
into the mix after how he has handled this season so far. Off the court, he has been used to being told
“yes” to everything, is not known for his timeliness, and is known for his
partying habits. If they start
struggling, could that rub Durant or Irving the wrong way? Will Irving, who is effectively AWOL from the
team at this moment, be willing to suddenly be the third option? On the court, Harden often looks lost off the
ball, is inconsistent about defensive effort, seemed adamant to handle the ball
all the time in Houston, and has had moments where he appears to care more
about his stats than playing the best way to win a championship. This will likely be a clunky fit alongside
the two other stars. Their starting
lineup will likely contain Irving, Harden, Joe Harris, Durant, and DeAndre
Jordan. I am not confident in their
defense; while Durant has been solid defensively, Jordan can be good, and
Harris isn’t horrible, Irving and Harden will likely be dreadful defensively
against any good guard duo. While they
started out looking solid defensively (thanks to poor shooting percentages),
they are already up to giving up over 113 PPG, which ranks 22nd in
the NBA. While they are 3rd
in PPG with 118.8 PPG, they are in trouble if one of their stars is out and
another struggles. Additionally, they
already have given up the most 2-pointers per game, and the only traditional
center remaining is Jordan; this will be an issue that will likely cause the 2-point
FG% to increase substantially.
Their depth is also an issue now. Outside of Durant, Irving, Harden, Harris,
and Jordan, their other players who have played most of their games are Timothe
Luwawu-Cabarrot, Jeff Green, Landry Shamet, and Bruce Brown. Luwawu-Cabarrot has been great offensively but
I’m not sure if he’s consistent enough to be a reliable 6th
man. Green has shot well, but I’m not
sure he has played well enough to earn more minutes; he’ll likely have to play
backup center for the time being. Brown
has often been the only reliable defensive player off the bench, but he has
struggled offensively. Shamet has been
horrible so far and needs to improve if the team wants to win more. We will likely see more minutes from Chris
Chiozza, Tyler Johnson, and Reggie Perry, but the team is down to 10 healthy players
on their roster currently (Nic Claxton is still on the team and will be back at
some point). I expect at least one free
agent big man and one defensive wing to be signed. That said, they lost their best big man and
paint protector (Allen), a guy they could trust to lead the bench in scoring at
times (LeVert), and a wing who could defend and shoot (Prince), not to mention
effectively 7 years worth of draft picks if this implodes. If this works, the big three could be a juggernaut. I’m not sold on Harden buying into playing
off the ball more, Irving being third fiddle, and Durant remaining sane dealing
with the two of them. I think the Nets
were better off taking back a player like Oladipo who could help defensively and
can naturally slide into the role of the third star offensively. Grade:
C-
Rockets
· Received: Oladipo, Kurucs, Exum, 4 first-round picks, 4 pick swaps
· Gave up: Harden, 1 second-round pick
I have seen some penalizing the Rockets for not getting Ben
Simmons; I will not do that because I am not sure Simmons was seriously being
considered. It was no secret or surprise
that Harden was interested in being traded, that Brooklyn was his top
destination choice, and that multiple teams had pulled out of the competition,
but Houston still managed to get effectively 8 picks and Oladipo as a
result. The earlier Brooklyn pick and Milwaukee’s
2022 pick will likely be a later pick, but the Nets picks can get bad by 2027
when Durant is 39 and Harden is 38 (if both are still on the team or playing basketball). The short-term picks might not be as valuable
(I would guess the first 3 might not be great).
Oladipo has had his rough moments defensively since returning from his injury,
but he’s averaging 20 PPG, 36.2% 3PG, and 4.2 APG, which should help pair him with
Wall. A healthy Oladipo and Wall will
give them one of the more athletic backcourts in the league, but after missing
time for injuries, there could be durability issues. I expect one player to get waived between
Kurucs, who has struggled the last couple years, and Exum, had had his moments
defensively but has struggled offensively; I would waive Kurucs out of the
two. That said, I don’t think getting
Oladipo will propel them into the playoffs and he will be a free agent after
this year, a move that is somewhat questionable. That said, I expect he will be traded for more
assets near the trade deadline. Grade: B+
Pacers
· Received: LeVert, 2nd round pick
· Gave up: Oladipo
Indiana gave up a guy who didn’t want to extend with them in
exchange for a guy who’s a couple years younger and signed through 2023 while
gaining a draft pick in the process; this isn’t supposed to happen. LeVert is averaging 18.5 PPG, 6.0 APG (career
high so far), 4.3 RPG (career high), and 34.9 3P%. There are some issues with LeVert: he has only topped 70 games once, has not
been the star of a competitive team (while Oladipo has), is much worse at
defense than Oladipo, and has had inconsistencies. That said, he had more assists than Oladipo
so far, can score in bunches, can be effective with bench players, and isn’t
needed to be a star on this team. If he can
develop as a defender similar to how TJ Warren did, then they’ll be in great
shape. They will need LeVert to fit in
quickly as a third option behind Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon considering
TJ Warren is out, Myles Turner struggling outside of the paint, Aaron Holiday
struggling offensively, Justin Holiday playing well offensively but not playing
as well defensively as usual, and Doug McDermott thriving offensively but isn’t
good enough defensively to consistently trust in clutch minutes. One thing I like is that LeVert has improved
as a playmaker this year, which will be a nice addition alongside Brogdon and
Sabonis in particular. While Brogdon is
a quality playmaker, he is so strong off the ball (82.8% of his 3s were
assisted in Milwaukee, where he put up his best 3-point percentages, compared
to 45.3% last year, where his 3P% dipped to 32.6%. He’s up to 50% assisted and 45.3 3P%). He reminds me of a player like Jamal Murray
or CJ McCollum; he is a good playmaker who can make the right plays (7.1 APG
and 2.4 TOV last season, 7.5 APG and 1.6 TOV this season), but he’s such a good
shooter off the ball and on catch and shoot that I love him as a secondary ballhandler
at times. While Sabonis allowed for this
some (5.8 APG this season, 5.0 last year), LeVert should give him more
opportunities than Oladipo did if he can remain healthy and keep his playmaking
up. Grade: A-
Cavaliers
· Received: Allen, Taurean Prince
· Gave up: Exum, 1st round pick
The first thing I have seen a lot of people point out is how
many big men this team has, as Allen joins Andre Drummond, Kevin Love
(currently injured), JaVale McGee, and Larry Nance Jr. as big men who will get
substantial minutes. That said, Allen and
Nance are the most likely candidates to be long-term options, which should be
Cleveland’s goal given their recent struggles and current roster. Allen is a strong interior defender, good at
setting screens, and a strong finisher at the rim, which will help him pair
with Darius Garland and Collin Sexton while they continue their development. Prince struggled overall in Brooklyn, but is
shooting 35.1% from 3 so far this year.
In his final two years in Atlanta, he put up 13.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 38.7
3P%, and 52.7 eFG%. He will be valuable
for them in stretching the floor; I expect he will play more 3 to start the
year, which could also help Isaac Okoro develop a little more. The fact that all they had to give up was
Milwaukee’s 2022 1st round pick, which will likely be near the end
of the round, and Exum, who wasn’t particularly good for them offensively. They also waived Thon Maker and Yogi Ferrell;
I like Ferrell, but he likely wasn’t going to do as much once Sexton returns
from his injury. Overall, I think Cleveland
realized the best move to shake things up in the short-term and build a more
effective team in the long-term. Grade: A
Who do you think won this deal? How did you react as more players were
announced as included? Let me know in
the comments!
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