2021 NBA All-Stars

Yesterday (2/23) the reserves were named for the All-Star game.  Ultimately, my predictions I made were perfect for the West (7/7) but were a bit off in the East (4/7).  That said, that didn’t change the fact there were surprises, snubs, and plenty of questions regarding predictions.  In this post, I will list the All-Star teams before going through notable surprises and snubs.  As a note, I did not discuss any players who played fewer than 20 games (i.e. Jimmy Butler, C.J. McCollum, Ja Morant).

 

2021 NBA All Star Teams

East

Starters

  • Bradley Beal, WAS, G
  • Kyrie Irving, BRK, G
  • Kevin Durant, BRK, F (Captain)
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL, F
  • Joel Embiid, PHI, C

Reserves

  • Jaylen Brown, BOS, G
  • James Harden, BRK, G
  • Zach LaVine, CHI, G
  • Julius Randle, NYK, F
  • Ben Simmons, G
  • Jayson Tatum, BOS, F
  • Nikola Vucevic, ORL, C

West

Starters

  • Stephen Curry, GSW, G
  • Luka Doncic, DAL, G
  • LeBron James, LAL, F (Captain)
  • Nikola Jokic, DEN, C
  • Kawhi Leonard, LAC, F

Reserves

  • Anthony Davis, F
  • Paul George, F
  • Rudy Gobert, C
  • Damian Lillard, G
  • Donovan Mitchell, G
  • Chris Paul, G
  • Zion Williamson, F


Surprises

The following players were surprises to me, many in the basketball community, or both.

Nikola Vucevic, ORL, C

While I thought that Vucevic was deserving, I never expected he would be named an All-Star.  In particular, the team is only 13-19 and Vucevic wasn’t expected to be named an All-Star by many (especially not me).  That said, he is averaging a career high 23.9 PPG on 39.9 3P% and 54.2 eFG%, 11.7 RPG, 3.7 APG, and 1.1 SPG.  Additionally, Orlando has so many notable players dealing with injuries (including Jonathan Isaac, Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, Markelle Fultz, and Cole Anthony) that basically the only players I consistently trust offensively are Nikola Vucevic and Terrence Ross (I trust Vucevic much more).  However, there’s a case to be made that it should have been Domantas Sabonis, Bam Adebayo, Gordon Hayward, Khris Middleton, or Tobias Harris instead.

 

Julius Randle, NYK, F

I was hoping Randle would be named an All-Star due to how complete his game has been and how he has been able to help New York to a much better season than many predicted (especially than I expected), but I didn’t expect him to be named one due to the competition and the fact that he’s on the Knicks.  That said, the Knicks are in 7th with a 15-17 record and has career highs in PPG (23.3), 3P% (41.4%), RPG (10.9), APG (5.5), and FT% (81.1%).  I thought he deserved it, but I would not have predicted him being named one.

 

Chris Paul, PHO, G

I was not surprised by Paul’s selection, but many people were; I predicted it as he is averaging 16.6 PPG while shooting 39.5% from 3 and has a 54.5 eFG%, 8.5 APG, 4.5 RPG, 1.2 SPG, and has a league-leading 97.2 FT%, is still loved by advanced metrics, and is the leader of a 20-10 Suns team in 4th place.  Many thought that Devin Booker should have been named one instead, but I wasn’t surprised given the coaches rewarded his leadership of the Thunder last year despite being third on the teams in PPG.

 

Zach LaVine, CHI, G

This was not much of a surprise to many people, but I did not expect LaVine would be named an All-Star.  Despite the recent surges of the Bulls and LaVine, he has had a reputation of being a player who does not impact winning for the last few seasons (a reputation I would argue is unfair).  While many pointed out the fact that his field goal percentage was below league average, this was due to his high volume of both 2’s and 3’s; his eFG% was around league average the last couple years.  That said, this year he is shooting 51.8% from the field, 43.4% from 3, and 57.6% from 2, has a 60.7% eFG%, and is averaging 28.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 5.1 APG, and 1.1 SPG, most of which are career highs.  The Bulls are tied for 8th with a 14-16 record, better than they have been the last few years.

 

Snubs

The following are players who built a strong case for being named All-Stars but missed out.

Devin Booker, PHO, G*

The rest of the world seems up in arms about the fact that Booker wasn’t an All-Star.  I didn’t predict he would be one and that Chris Paul would be one instead since Paul has better advanced stats than Booker and Phoenix wasn’t likely to have two All-Stars.  That said, he is averaging 24.7 PPG with career highs in FG% (50.1%), 2P% (55.6%, and eFG% (56.1%) while shooting 38.1 3P%, 4.3 APG, and 3.8 RPG.  His career best efficiency might also be able to be traced back to Paul.

*Note:  Booker was named the replacement for Anthony Davis on 2/24.

 

Khris Middleton, MIL, F

There was a surprising number of experts that did not predict Middleton, but I felt confident about he would be named one.  While the Bucks have not been as dominant this year as they had been previously, Middleton is again close to a 50-40-90 season, shooting 49.8%-43.4%-89.5% (the FG% and 3P% have both been career highs).  Additionally, he is averaging 20.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 5.7 APG, and 1.2 SPG while also having a 57.6 eFG%.  His numbers this season are higher than his numbers the last two years when he was named an All-Star and he’s been excellent, so I thought he felt safe to be selected.

 

Domantas Sabonis, IND, F/C

I did not predict Sabonis to be named an All-Star and would not have selected him this year (as much as it pains me), but he seemed to be the first snub mentioned in the East by several commentators.  He has averaged 21.5 PPG with a 52.8 FG%, 35.8 3P%, 56.5 2P%, and 56.0 eFG%, 11.6 RPG, 5.7 APG, and 1.0 SPG.  I think the biggest reason he wasn’t named one is because of the group effort behind the 15-14 Pacers with (among others) Malcolm Brogdon averaging 21.6 PPG and 6.6 APG and Myles Turner with 13.2 PPG and a league-leading 3.5 BPG.  That said, Sabonis is the best player on that team.

 

Bam Adebayo, MIA, C/F

I predicted Adebayo would be an All-Star and while I didn’t feel great about the prediction, I felt decent about the selection.  His offensive game has improved substantially, as he is averaging 19.6 PPG with a 57.0 FG% while shooting 57.3% from 2’s and 84.4% from the free throw line, 9.5 RPG, 5.5 APG, 1.0 BPG, and 0.9 SPG.  That said, the Heat have struggled this year, going 14-17 and are currently in 10th.  On top of that, while not substantially worse, Adebayo’s defense isn’t quite as good as it was last season, which probably didn’t help his case either.

 

DeMar DeRozan, SAS, F

I did not expect DeRozan to be named an All-Star and many omitted him from their fictional ballots, but I thought he should have been selected.  He has transformed his game from high scorer with a lot of attempts on the Raptors to leader, efficient scorer, and lead playmaker on the Spurs.  He is leading the 16-11 Spurs with 19.8 PPG and 6.9 APG.  He is also averaging 5.0 RPG and only 1.6 TOV.  He is shooting 48.8% from the floor, 51.4% from 2, and even 33.3% from 3, much better than his 28.4% career average.  Add the fact that he is playing league average defense and the Spurs are in 5th and I think he is a snub.

 

Gordon Hayward, CHA, F

The only things working against Hayward in my opinion are that his team is only in 8th with a 14-16 record, he is only averaging 3.7 APG, he is playing in Charlotte, and there are other players playing better.  I’m not worried about the record of the Hornets since almost nobody has a .500 record in the strange East.  The assists are low because while he was a secondary ball handler in Boston, he’s often sharing the court with Terry Rozier, LaMelo Ball, and Devonte’ Graham.  I don’t care about the fact that he’s in a small market so being in Charlotte won’t work against him in my book.  As for the players playing better, I actually selected him in my choices.  He is averaging 21.9 PPG on 42.4 3P% and 55.6 eFG%, 5.4 RPG, the aforementioned 3.7 RPG, and 1.2 SPG.  He is probably the best defender in the Charlotte starting lineup and I think has been a major reason they are as good as they are this year.

 

Trae Young, ATL, G

I would not have selected Young as an All-Star and, while I predicted he would be named one, was not absolutely shocked he wasn’t named one.  He is averaging 27.0 PPG with a 37.0 3P%, 9.6 APG, and 4.0 RPG.  That said, he is still horrible defensively, has had remarkably bad cold stretches, and seems lost or frustrated when he doesn’t have the ball in his hands.  In retrospect, there are three things that I think worked against him most, two I had considered, one I did not initially.  First, the Hawks are only 13-18 and in 11th.  Second, there is an argument that he often plays for stats more than wins (it might be a bit unfair to go that far but still).  Third, many coaches are frustrated by his playing style; I hadn’t considered that the coaches selecting the lineups might hold that against him.  Still, he is the top offensive player on a team fighting for the playoffs.

 

Mike Conley, UTA, G

Conley’s raw numbers might not scream All-Star, as he is averaging 16.4 PPG with a 41.2 3P% and 55.9 eFG%, 5.6 APG, 3.4 APG, and 1.4 SPG.  First off, he is on the best team in the NBA, as the Jazz are 25-6 and surging.  Name an advanced stat and he’s doing well.  Basketball Reference’s Box Plus-Minus?  He currently ranks 25th.  ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus?  He ranks 10th.  FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR WAR stat?  He is 8th.  Basketball Reference’s WS/48?  He ranks 14th.  Basketball Reference’s STL%?  He ranks 9th.  He even ranks 42nd overall in PER and 11th out of players listed at point guard (the only non-All-Star ahead of him is Jrue Holiday), and this included LeBron James as a point guard.  It really depends on whether you like winning and advance stats or counting stats more.

 

Tobias Harris, PHI, F

I didn’t expect Harris would be named an All-Star, but he is thriving for the 1st place 21-11 76ers.  He is averaging 20.7 PPG with 51.7 FG%, 41.5 3P%, and 57.4 eFG%, 7.7 RPG, 3.4 APG, 0.9 BPG, and 0.8 SPG.  New 76ers coach Doc Rivers has unlocked a new gear in Harris by having him play with the bench unit for large minutes, where he has been frequently leading the offense.  He has also been a solid defender for them as well, looking more comfortable as a power forward than the small forward position he played last year.  Probably hasn’t played quite well enough to be named to the All-Star game, but he at least deserves a mention for it.

 

Other Notable Omissions

Players here are listed in alphabetical order

  • Malik Beasley, MIN, G
  • Malcolm Brogdon, IND, G
  • De’Aaron Fox, SAC, G
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC, G
  • Jerami Grant, DET, F
  • Jrue Holiday, MIL, G
  • Brandon Ingram, NOP, F
  • Kyle Lowry, TOR, G
  • Terry Rozier, CHA, G
  • Collin Sexton, CLE, G
  • Pascal Siakam, TOR, F
  • Fred VanVleet, TOR, G

 

 

What do you think about this year’s All-Stars?  Were you surprised certain players made it or missed it?  Let me know in the comments!

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