March Madness Brackets
Every year, I create a bracket for the Men’s and Women’s March Madness. While I don’t watch enough college to truly be an expert and my Men’s bracket is often horrible (more on that in a bit), I thought it would be good to discuss what I think will happen.
Men’s
Bracket
Usually, I don’t have any rhyme or reason to my bracket; in
fact, I frequently have had teams that are even 4 or 5 seeds winning it;
needless to say, my brackets aren’t usually very good. The best year I ever had was when I had
Pittsburgh winning the tournament in 2009 and they were eliminated on a
buzzer-beater in the Elite 8 (the only time my winner ever even made it that
far). In 2019, I tried out something a
little different in small dosages: I selected
some teams based on which of their players were expected to be drafted and who
had talented upperclassmen. While my
predicted winner (Tennessee) still only reached the Sweet 16, I didn’t have Duke
winning due to the amount of freshmen they had (they were eliminated in the Elite
8), predicted the Murray State upset due to the presence of Ja Morant, and
predicted several other upsets (I usually do well with upsets, but these were
more calculated). When Virginia
won, I thought it made sense due to the number of elite upperclassmen they had.
This year, I implemented this to a larger extreme and did
this with all the teams. As such, I
wound up with some weird upsets, some strange matchups, and a Final 4 consisting
of Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, and Florida State, with Gonzaga winning it all.
My Final
Four:
Gonzaga
I hate having a team that is a 1 seed winning it and I especially
hate having the overall #1 seed winning it.
That said, I cannot find a way to have Gonzaga lose. They went undefeated in the regular season,
beating 4 top-25 teams, and their only game with less than a 10-point margin
was on December 2nd against West Virginia. This team is loaded, with 3 All-Americans, but
keep an eye on Corey Kispert, Jalen Suggs, Joel Ayayi, and Drew Timme. Kispert, a consensus First Team All-American
this year, is a senior small forward who has always been a sharpshooter for
Gonzaga but now has developed into a scorer, leading the team with 19.2 PPG
with a career high 54.4 FG% (44.4 3P%). Suggs
is a freshman point guard who, while a 5-star recruit and a projected top-5
draft pick this year, basically traded statistics to help the team win; he
still was a consensus Second Team All-American with 14.3 PPG on 51.2 FG% (35.4
3P%), 5.5 RPG, 4.5 APG and 2.0 SPG. Timme
is a sophomore center who isn’t the best defender or athlete but can dominate
in the paint, averaging 18.7 PPG on 65.6 FG% and 7.1 RPG; he also averaged 2.0
APG. He was a consensus Second Team
All-American as well. I think Ayayi is
their x-factor; the redshirt junior combo guard doesn’t score a ton or handle
the ball a lot but is able to does a lot of the little things. He is averaging 11.8 PPG with a 58.3 FG%
(68.7 2P%, 39.7 3P%), 7.0 RPG, 3.0 APG, and 1.2 SPG. There will be few teams that can beat them.
Baylor
Most people would point to one name: Jared Butler.
The junior First Team All-American guard averaged 17.1 PPG with 42.9
3P%, 4.8 APG, 3.3 RPG, and 2.0 SPG and seems like a complete player. That would discount the other members of
their dominant guard trio. Redshirt
senior Macio Teague averaged 16.1 PPG with 39.2 3P%, 4.2 RPG, and 1.7 APG; he
is a player who looks primed for the tournament. Redshirt junior Davion Mitchell averaged 14.2
PPG with 51.5 FG% and 46.2 3P%, 5.4 APG, 2.6 RPG, and 2.0 SPG; he is a complete
player and, like Butler, could be a first-round pick in the NBA Draft. The team is deep with three-point shooting,
as 3 of their regular bench players all shot over 38% from 3 this season.
Illinois
Their place in the Final 4 is heavily based on Ayo Dosunmu,
the All-American junior combo guard who averaged 20.7 PPG with 51.2 2P% and
38.8 3P%, 6.3 RPG, 5.3 APG, and 1.1 SPG; in other words, he scores like crazy
and can do it all. Their second option
is Kofi Cockburn, a Second Team All-American sophomore traditional big who averaged
17.6 PPG on 65.5 FG%, 9.6 RPG, 1.2 BPG.
Keep an eye on Trent Frazier; he only averaged 10.4 PPG, but he can
shoot (37.2 3P%, 83.1 FT%), so you can’t put both guards too heavily on
Dosunmu.
Florida
State
I just have them here because of the matchups my bracket had
them up against: I don’t expect them to
have trouble with UNC Greensboro, Georgetown, LSU, or UCLA, so they waltz their
way into the Final 4 due to the matchups that other teams have to face. That said, they do have a deep team, with 5
players averaging more than 9 PPG. Redshirt
junior shooting guard M.J. Walker led the team with 13.0 PPG while shooting 44.0
3P% and averaged 2.6 RPG and 2.4 APG. Junior
power forward RaiQuan Gray averaged 12.0 PPG with 56.1 FG%, 6.5 RPG, 2.2 APG,
1.4 SPG, and 0.8 BPG. Their starting
lineup is strong defensively, but they also have likely top-10 NBA Draft pick
freshman Scottie Barnes coming off the bench while averaging 11.0 PPG with 55.2
2P%, 4.3 RPG, 4.2 APG, and 1.5 SPG (they play him similar to how they played Patrick
Williams last year). If an upset I have
doesn’t work out, this probably won’t happen.
Other Teams
I’m Eyeing
These two teams are others that could make the Final 4.
Iowa
Iowa is the only team that I think has a shot of beating
Gonzaga. The biggest reason is because Luka
Garza is an elite offensive player; the First Team All-American senior center
averaged 23.7 PPG on 54.7 FG% and 40.7 3P%, 8.8 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.7 BPG, and 0.6
SPG; his shooting ability could give a player like Gonzaga center Drew Timme
fits. They also have Joe Wieskamp, a wing
who averaged 14.7 PPG with a 47.3 3P%, 6.6 RPG, 1.5 APG, and 1.0 SPG. If those two get covered, they can go to redshirt
senior guard Jordan Bohannon, who averaged 10.9 PPG while shooting 38.9% from 3
on a team high 6.8 attempts per game; he also averaged 4.5 APG and 3.1
RPG. What if he gets covered as
well? Sophomore guard CJ Fredrick
averaged a team high 49.3 3P%.
West Virginia
West Virginia is a sneaky team that could go far. Their top player this season was likely
either sophomore guard Miles McBride or junior forward Derek Culver. McBride averaged 15.4 PPG with 39.2 3P%, 4.7
APG, 3.8 RPG, and 1.8 SPG; Culver averaged 14.6 PPG with 9.8 RPG, 1.1 APG, 0.8
SPG, and 0.7 BPG. On top of that, they
have some good shooters as well; Taz Sherman shot 36.6% from 3 and averaged
13.6 PPG, Sean McNeil shot 37.9% from 3 and averaged 11.8 PPG, and Jalen
Bridges shot 47.9% from 3.
Notable
Upsets
1st
Round
15 Oral
Roberts beating 2 Ohio State
This would likely be the most shocking upset for many
people, but I think it is easily the most likely of the 2 seeds falling. My logic comes down to 2 reasons: Ohio State doesn’t have any players that have
been frequently mentioned as potential draft candidates and (probably more
importantly for me), Oral Roberts is an elite shooting team. It reminds me of when 16 seed UMBC, an elite
shooting team, beat 1 seed Virginia in 2018 (then again, the only person I know
who predicted that was my mom, and she only did it because she went to Virginia
Tech and hates UVA).
13 North Texas beating 4 Purdue
I don’t feel great about this prediction, but I’m not high
enough of Purdue to have them go far and then I decided that I also wasn’t high
enough to have them beating North Texas.
That said, don’t be surprised if this upset prediction is incorrect.
12 Georgetown over 5 Colorado
Georgetown is a popular upset selection after they won the
Big East tournament, but it makes a lot of sense; they really clicked at the
end of the season. After easily beating
Marquette, they snuck past Villanova (a 5 seed in the tournament), beat Seton
Hall, and won the championship against Creighton (another 5 seed in the
tournament). Colorado could absolutely
win, but I could see Georgetown continuing their hot streak.
11 Syracuse beating 6 San Diego State
This was a case of relying more on a strong/deep team or a
couple good players. I chose the players
since I believe Alan Griffin and Quincy Guerrier can do wonders for Syracuse in
this tournament. That said, San Diego
State is always a strong team and a scary one to bet against in the early
rounds.
11 UCLA beating 6 BYU
Another case of going with a team or a player. BYU is a great team, but UCLA senior forward
Chris Smith is a great player. Ultimately,
BYU blowing an 18-point lead to Gonzaga to lose by 10 (I know it’s Gonzaga, but
still) makes me a little less confident.
2nd
round
8 LSU
beating 1 Michigan
If Isaiah Livers wasn’t injured, I’d feel comfortable having
Michigan go far in the tournament.
However, the senior forward is injured and expected to miss much of the
tournament. While I expect Franz Wagner
to dominate in his absence, I’m not confident that the rest of their team will
be able to step up enough to make up for that loss.
11 UCLA beating 3 Texas
Honestly, I just think Texas has several younger players
with no tournament experience that they’re relying on who aren’t good enough to
be dominant in these games. They might
win here, but they’ll struggle against teams with upper classmen.
7 UConn beating 2 Alabama
On this one, I’m really relying on James Bouknight to score
like crazy. Otherwise, Alabama will
likely make it to the Final 4 behind Herbert Jones and John Petty, but I can
see Bouknight going for a big scoring game here.
6 Texas Tech beating 3 Arkansas
I don’t even consider this much of an upset. While Arkansas is a great team, do I want to
rely on a great freshman in Moses Moody or three talented players in sophomore
Terrence Shannon Jr., junior Mac McClung, and freshman Nimari Burnett? I’ll take the latter option, which means I’m taking
Texas Tech.
Women’s Bracket
Like what I found with the men’s bracket, I didn’t watch a
lot of college basketball this year, so I didn’t do many predictions based on
what I watched. I focused on two
things: in the first round, I largely
predicted based on recent team success.
After that, I looked at it largely based on record versus top-25
teams. I haven’t noticed as many upsets
in the women’s side, so I figured that was likely the best way to go with this
year. My bracket has been much more
accurate in the women’s side in the past, but that was boosted by UConn being
the safe prediction for several years.
This year, I don’t think there’s a guarantee winner; I expect any of the
1 seeds and some others have a shot.
My Final
Four
South
Carolina
There is so much to like about South Carolina in any matchup
they face. While they don’t have any traditional centers, they play a smaller
style that works well for them, have several players who can score (probably
led by sophomores Zia Cooke and Aaliyah Boston), have a team that can play well
together and is competitive, played half of their games against top 25 teams
(and went 9-4 in them), and is coached by Dawn Stanley, who is rapidly making a
name for herself as one of the best coaches in the NCAA. The biggest thing working against them is
that UConn beat them when they faced in the regular season. That said, that game went to overtime and South
Carolina beat Tennessee in the SEC Tournament after losing to them earlier this
year.
UConn
It really came down to 2 questions whether UConn should win
or not: do I want to bet against Paige
Bueckers? Now that she seems more
confident in her shooting ability than she did at times early on, I can’t say I
do. The bigger question is how will Geno
Auriemma’s absence due to Covid-19 impact the team? Chris Dailey is replacing them, and I trust
her a lot; I truly believe she would be a top-10 head coach in the NCAA had she
opted to take that route rather than stick by Geno’s side for decades. That said, South Carolina is a different kind
of beast and while I think UConn is a better team, South Carolina will be more
tested throughout the season and in the tournament.
Stanford
Do I want to bet against Tara VanDerveer in the
tournament? Not really; the last time
Stanford missed the Sweet 16 was 2007 and she led them to 5 Final Fours last
decade. That said, the last time they
made the Finals was 2010 and the last time they won was 1992. That said, don’t sleep on them; this team is
a strong one all-around.
Texas A&M
Texas A&M had an amazing season, only losing 2 games and
going 9-1 against top-25 teams. They
seemed primed to win the tournament, but lost to Georgia in the semifinals of
the SEC Tournament. As much as it pains
me to have them beating NC State, I think they will; they are a better
team. That said, I expect that they will
have some trouble against UConn. That said,
it doesn’t feel too good to bet against coach Gary Blair.
Bonus: Joke Bracket
Every year, I create a joke Men’s bracket that is determined
by flipping a coin. I like seeing how my
selections would be compared to a random selection; so far, the random one has
always been much worse (I expect the trend to continue this year). I included this bracket here for
entertainment. Let’s just say if this happens,
it would be a historic year and hysterically bad result.
Who do you have winning the tournament this year? Any matchups or upsets you are excited for? Let me know in the comments!
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