LaMarcus Aldridge Retirement: What’s Next for the Nets?

On April 15^th, LaMarcus Aldridge announced his retirement from the NBA due to a heart condition.  He opted to retire due to some health concerns stemming from an irregular heartbeat two weeks after making his Nets debut.  In his career, he was a 7 time All-Star, 5 time All-NBA, and was one of the best midrange-shooting big men I remember watching play, shooting 41.8% from the 10-16 feet range and 42.4% from the 16 feet-3PT range throughout his career while consistently shooting above 40%.  He averaged 19.4 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.1 BPG, and shot 81.1% from the free throw line.  While his FG% dropped a bit in the playoffs (49.8% to 45.5%), he still averaged 20.8 PPG and had 8.5 RPG.  While he was never an elite defensive player, I always felt like he was closer to average than a lot of people gave him credit for throughout most of his career (especially in Portland).  He had the misfortune of having the game change in the middle of his prime but remained an All-Star and highly coveted offensive player even while the league shifted to more 3-point shooting.  He showed he could shoot some as well, shooting 33.8% from deep with the Spurs.  I’m admittedly not sure if he’ll be a Hall of Famer (Basketball-Reference gives him a Hall of Fame Probability of 50.9%), but I think the shift in playing style will likely make him wait at least a few years.  That said, I hope he gets in because I don’t think he should be penalized for not taking 3’s while still being an All-NBA talent and making the playoffs.  Of course, best wishes to him while focuses on his health and that he fully recovers with no setbacks.

 

Replacing Aldridge

The next question is what the Nets should do with this newly open roster spot.  While Aldridge fit better than I anticipated he would in those games, I’m not sure what the fit would have been long-term.  I really don’t know what the Nets are thinking to do for filling this spot, but I have broken down their options into different groups.  I did not include every player who is a free agent, but I focused on some notable names who would likely be available.

 

The Bigs

• Amir Johnson, C
• Ian Mahinmi, C
• Kenneth Faried, PF
• Greg Monroe, C

If they want to replace Aldridge’s role directly, there aren’t a ton of options available in that regard.  I think the closest option is Johnson, who isn’t the scorer Aldridge was but is a better defender and can shoot some.  The downside of this is that he barely played for the G-League Ignite team this year and hasn’t played in the NBA since 2019.  Mahinmi is a good defensive fit if they are looking for that route and isn’t somebody who would try to outplay his role, which would make him an easy fit from a chemistry perspective; I’m just not sure he’s better than some of these other players.  Faried might be able to do some of the same things that Aldridge did and played well in China this year, but he isn’t anywhere near the shooter or scorer Aldridge is; he is an aggressive rebounder though.  I don’t expect them to go with Monroe; while he has been a good rebounder and crafty scorer in the paint, he has become unplayable in his last few stops due to his poor defense.

 

The Shooters

• Gerald Green, SG/SF
• Quinn Cook, PG
• Allen Crabbe, SF
• Jonas Jerebko, PF
• Kyle Korver, SG

While the Nets are loaded with scoring and shooting already, it certainly wouldn’t hurt to try to obtain more floor spacing.  While most wouldn’t consider Green an elite shooter, he showed he could play well with James Harden in Houston, shooting 36.0% from 3 there and averaging 10.2 PPG in 115 games.  It wouldn’t surprise me if he could shoot higher when pairing him with Harden, their two other superstars in Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, and an elite shooter with Joe Harris.  Cook is a player who doesn’t play much (14.1 MPG career, 6.8 this season), but he can shoot (40.8% 3P% career, 42.3% this season).  He’s also a 2-time champion, once with the Warriors and once with the Lakers.  Crabbe hasn’t played this season and only shot 30.3% from 3 last year, but the 29-year-old has a 38.7% 3P% for his career and was the guy the Trail Blazers felt inclined to match for 4 years, $75 million after having one season with at least 10 PPG.  Jerebko has played in Russia the last two seasons and shot well there (40.4% from 3 this season), and can get the occasional rebound, but that’s really all to expect from him.  While I don’t expect the Nets to go for him, he is a 6-10 player who can shoot, which is enticing.  Korver might be 40 and hasn’t played this season, but this is still the guy who is a 42.9% career 3-point shooter and shot 41.8% from 3 last year; if he wants a comeback, don’t rule him out.

 

The 3-and-D Players

• DeMarre Carroll, PF
• Iman Shumpert, SG
• Wilson Chandler, SF/PF
• Courtney Lee, SG

In an ideal world, a 3-and-D player is the type of guy to go with; I just don’t think there are any players in this category who are good enough to make a reasonable case.  Carroll barely played last year, so signing him would be relying on him to rediscover what he did during his prior stint in Brooklyn; in 2019 (his final season there), he averaged 11.1 PPG, shot 34.2% from 3, and had 5.2 RPG.  That said, he has had a negative DBPM since 2017, a trend that’s unlikely to change.  Shumpert was previously signed with the Nets twice (once on a 10-day contract), but only played 11 minutes.  He only played 15 games between this season and last season, but he’s only 30 and has always been a solid defender while showing glimpses that he could shoot (career 33.7% from deep).  Chandler has shown glimpses of being able to defend during his career, but hasn’t been consistently good.  He is a decent shooter for his career (34.1% 3P%), but only shot 30.6% from 3 last year with the Nets.  The hope is that he’s closer to his 2019 total (37.3%) or his total in 3 games in China (34.8%).  I don’t expect them to go with Lee, but he is worth a look.  He’s an underrated defender and a career 38.8% 3-point shooter.  Last season, he was a plus defender while shooting 44.7% from deep in 14.4 MPG across 24 games.  He won’t be playing big minutes, but they don’t need anyone to do that in most situations.

 

The Wing Defenders

• Lance Stephenson, SF
• Patrick McCaw, SF
• Luc Mbah a Moute, SF/PF
• Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, PF

Ideally, I would say this category is the one to go with, but there aren’t many that are worthy of serious consideration.  I like Stephenson in this category; he has always been a very good defender who could guard multiple positions and can get into players’ heads (if they meet Lakers in the Finals…).  That said, he hasn’t played in the NBA since 2019 and is a career 31.5% 3-point shooter.  Might his 37.1% 3P% in 2019 be a fluke?  Probably, since he shot 30.0% from deep in China last season (he was a star there though, averaging 26.7 PPG).  McCaw isn’t a guy who will shoot a lot (7.4 FGA per 36 minutes) or score a lot (8.1 points per 36 minutes), but he is an underrated defender.  He has a career +0.8 DBPM and 3.8 DWS in 199 games.  There’s a reason he played in 71 games as a 21-year-old rookie for the 2017 champion Warriors (and played in 57 more for the 2018 champion Warriors and 26 for the 2019 champion Raptors after they signed him in January 2019).  I don’t expect Mbah a Moute to be signed by the Nets considering he has played just 7 games in the last 2 seasons, but he has a career +0.7 DBPM, is a guy who will play his role, and is 3 years away from showing he could shoot, attempting 2.8 3PA and shooting 36.4% from them.  I’d be shocked if Kidd-Gilchrist was signed by them, as he was horrible by the time he was waived by the Hornets and somehow managed to be even worse for the Mavericks last year.  Still, he is just 27, is a career plus defender, and could guard multiple positions (possibly even center in certain matchups).

 

The Point Guards

• Jarrett Jack, PG
• Shabazz Napier, PG
• Yogi Ferrell, PG
• Emmanuel Mudiay, PG

They likely will not sign a point guard given the number of ball handlers they have on the team, but it’s worth considering here.  Jack hasn’t played in the NBA since 2018 so I wouldn’t expect him to be signed, but he is a good leader and shot decently from 3 with the G-League Ignite this year (35.7%).  His presence as a leader and supporting cast member for multiple high-profile recruits cemented his potential fit in Brooklyn.  While I like Napier as a player, I’m not totally sold on his fit here.  He can score (14.6 points per 36 for his career, 11.6 PPG in 24.6 MPG during 20 games with Washington last year), but is a streaky shooter (34.5% from 3 for his career).  He can be a playmaker at times (5.2 APG in 36 games in Minnesota prior to being traded last year), but hasn’t consistently shown that for his career (5.1 assists per 36).  He’s a plus defender (+0.2 DBPM for his career) and has shown glimpses of being better (2.0 DWS in 74 games in Portland in 2018), which would be nice, but I think they would look for a more consistent shooter.  One that I think would be a better fit is Ferrell, a player who I have been high on since his rookie year in Dallas.  He can play on or off the ball, as he has a career 4.1 assists per 36 and has shot 36.7% from 3.  While he has a -0.2 DBPM, excluding his numbers for a couple below average Sacramento teams brings it to a positive number.  The biggest downside with him might be that he’s only 6’0 so he’s too small to realistically be a shooting guard in big minutes but isn’t the playmaker to be a point guard.  I’d be shocked if they go with Mudiay here; he has had a roller coaster of a career, going from highly touted young player to solid young player to losing minutes to late-career Jameer Nelson to being exiled to the Knicks to being a quality role player with the Jazz to not being signed this year.  He’s always been a minus defender, but he improved his DBPM to -0.1 last year (not sure how much that was impacted by Rudy Gobert though).  He boosted his 3P% to 34.5% and 2P% to 50.4%, both career highs.  While the 3P% is lower than other players, there is reason to believe it could be higher given the Nets’ construct.  While he has shown glimpses of being a good playmaker, I wouldn’t consider him great.

 

The Volume Scorers

• Austin Rivers, SG/PG
• Glenn Robinson III, SF/SG
• Michael Beasley, SF/PF
• Brandon Knight, PG/SG
• Shabazz Muhammad, SG
• Isaiah Thomas, PG
• Jamal Crawford, SG

I don’t expect they would even consider most of the players here.  Austin Rivers can shoot (36.4% 3P% this year) as can Robinson (36.4% 3P% this year), but I’m not sure how they will be as catch-and-shoot players when you have any of their stars on the court; if anything, they could provide some scoring when any rest.  I don’t mind the fit of Beasley, but I’m not sure they go for him.  He hasn’t played in the NBA since 2019 and he has a streaky shooter at times.  That said, they initially signed him for the Bubble prior to him testing positive for Covid and looked better defensively in 2019 with the Lakers.  There is always the possibility of him reclaiming what he did in 2018 with the Knicks, when he averaged 13.2 PPG, had 5.6 RPG, and shot 39.5% from 3.  I don’t expect them to go with Knight, but if they are looking at his 9 games with Detroit last year, he averaged 11.6 PPG while shooting 38.8% from 3.  He certainly hasn’t been the same since his injury that caused him to miss the 2017-18 season and was a bit streaky before that even; I don’t love the fit, but they might take a chance on him on a 10 day contract.  Muhammad has largely underwhelmed in his NBA career, but he averaged 28.5 PPG in 2 seasons in China, which is enticing.  That said, he hasn’t played in the NBA since 2018.  I’d be shocked if they signed Thomas; he’s struggled from the field since his injury in the 2017 playoffs, shooting 38.4% from the field and 34.3% from 3 in 87 games since then and averaged 12.6 PPG (previously had a 44.3% FG% and 36.7 3P% averaging 19.1 PPG).  In 3 games with New Orleans this year, he scored 23 points (7.7 PPG), went 9-27 (33.3%) from the field and 3-12 (25.0%) from 3.  The biggest red flag is that he is going to the rim half as much as he did in 2016-17 and his percentages have dropped since.  Don’t expect they will sign Crawford; he played 1 game last season because the Nets were desperate to get anyone who was healthy to play in the Bubble.  Now, they are more likely to look elsewhere than the now 41-year-old guard who has been a fairly streaky shooter.

 

Who Should They Go With?

I don’t think there’s an easy answer there and that it really depends on what they’re looking for.  I don’t think they should go with a big to act as a direct replacement for Aldridge.  I think anything Ian Mahinmi would bring in 10-15 MPG is already established by De’Andre Jordan and the matchups I think Johnson would be most useful in during the playoffs (Nikola Vucevic in Chicago, Myles Turner in Indiana, Julius Randle in New York, and maybe Pascal Siakam in Toronto if they make it there) are against teams Brooklyn can beat or throw in a guy like Jeff Green into instead.  I don’t think any other centers are worth going after beyond those two.  I likely wouldn’t go volume scorer, but Austin Rivers, Glenn Robinson III, and Michael Beasley can also shoot and have decent size for their positions so they could fit.  If they would go point guard, I would say Yogi Ferrell is a good fit from a shooting standpoint.  Napier and Mudiay are worth consideration as well, but they’re too streaky for my liking.  The only guy I mentioned in 3-and-D players that I would go after is Courntey Lee since he’s the most consistent shooter, but I might go with a guy who could play more minutes instead.  Out of the shooters, I’d probably be willing to try Quinn Cook out for the remainder of the season.  I’d also be willing to try Gerald Green, Allen Crabbe, or Jonas Jerebko on a 10-day deal to see where they are at.  While Lance Stephenson is a strong defensive player, he can be a lot at times so I would be more inclined to go with Patrick McCaw instead.

While I have long said they needed to go with a defensive player, I am starting to be of the mindset that having enough shooting might offset multiple bad shooting nights.  The issue with that is that I don’t know if there are many players I would trust to be great shooters.  Lee, Cook, Ferrell, and Jerebko are players I would likely feel comfortable trusting from deep, but I’m not sure if any of them quite fit cleanly.  A guy like McCaw would likely be utilized in a Bruce Brown type role guarding multiple positions, but his offensive limitations and the lack of appeal in acquiring another player who can’t shoot particularly well might not be the most enticing.  Robinson might wind up being just the player they needed, but will he be a good enough defender in the playoffs?  Rivers is also an enticing player to keep in mind during all of this given how he’s solid on and off the ball, but there are better shooters.  Ultimately, I’m not quite sure who the right fit is, but there are several players who could work.  I would probably sign either Patrick McCaw or Courtney Lee if I had to choose, but I would also consider Ferrell, Stephenson, Rivers, Robinson, Cook, Green, Michael Beasley, or Jerebko.

 

Bonus:  Is the Play-In Tournament a Good Idea?

After the success of the Play-In Game in the Bubble last year, which resulted in two exciting matchups between the Trail Blazers and the Grizzlies, the NBA has decided to implement a tournament version of it to finish the season.  The way this is going to work (since I previously discussed it incorrectly in this blog) is the 7 seed and 8 seed of each conference will play, and the winner gets the 7 seed.  The 9 and 10 seed will play where the loser is eliminated and the winner will play the loser of the 7 and 8 seed, where the winner will receive the 8 seed.

After receiving a unanimous vote from the Board of Governors and getting some support from players, including Steph Curry due to the competition down the stretch, it has recently received some criticism from various individuals for several reasons, including Luka Doncic (who doesn’t see the point of it during a condensed season), Draymond Green (who doesn’t consider it enough of a motivation), and Mark Cuban (who has expressed concern over the impact of the regular season).  This has led to the frequent debate:  is the Play-In Tournament a good idea? 

One frequent counterpoint is that it the Play-In Tournament will make the regular season not count.  My quick rebuttal to this is that is not true at all because 4 teams in each conference make it:  the 7 through 10 seeds.  If a team does well enough in the regular season to finish as a top 6 seed, they can make the playoffs without playing in it and if a team is bad enough that they finish as a bottom 5 seed, they miss the playoffs as they would normally.  As popular as I hear the slippery slope fallacious argument that is something along the lines of “why don’t you let everyone in” (I know I keep criticizing logical fallacies in my blog post, but seriously, if you want to have a coherent argument, please know how to argue and don’t fall back on illogical ideas or fallacies), the NBA is not reaching that point.  I think it makes sense for this season to implement in a vacuum due to the fact that there are 10 fewer games this season than usual and Covid outbreaks could cause a team to fall (see the Toronto Raptors).  Also, as a quick note to those complaining about two-thirds of the teams having a shot for the playoffs:  As recently as the 1960-61 season, three-quarters of the teams (6/8) made the playoffs, which led to the Baltimore Bullets making the playoffs in 1953 with a 16-54 (.229) making the playoffs and being swept.

The bigger concern that I didn’t initially consider is related to the condensed schedule.  While there are 72 games, it is a shorter time span to cram those in.  One example to consider is the Celtics.  They have to play 72 games in 144 days, an average of a game every other day (when the All-Star break and the time they missed for Covid is considered); to compare to the 2018-19 season, they had 175 days to play 82 games (an average of just under 0.47 games per day, or under a game every 2 days when the All-Star break is included).  To add to that, this season the Celtics are playing 15 back-to-backs (this is boosted because of missing 3 games due to Covid, but it was scheduled to be at least 12 initially), which means 30 of their 72 games (around 41.7%) come on a back-to-back, while in 2018-19 they had 9, which means 18 of their 82 games (just under 22%) were involved in back-to-back games.   This was expected due to the condensed schedule to avoid the Olympics, but there was also a shortened offseason.  While I don’t know enough about health and medicine to say with certainty that there is a correlation between the number of injuries and the shortened season, there will likely be more wear by the playoffs and the end of the season.  Adding in potentially two additional games is a risky move for teams who likely already have a difficult schedule to play. I know some people write this kind of argument off as being entitled since the players make a lot of money and should do their job, but it impacts performance in the short term and could impact health in the long term.

While the Play-In Games were a lot of fun in the Bubble, I am now of the mindset that it is not in the best interest for the players on the teams that will be involved.  Despite making sense with 10 fewer games, the condensed season makes it difficult to justify it when considering that there is likely a heightened risk for exhaustion and wear-and-tear, which could both also lead to increased probability for injuries.  While it could cause an increase in viewership and revenue for the NBA, I don’t consider it worth it at this point when considering the heightened risk of injuries from it.  That said, if the season was a little more spread out, I would consider it a good idea.

 

What do you remember about LaMarcus Aldridge’s playing career or remember seeing from him?  What do you think the Nets should do if they replace him?  Do you think the Play-In Tournament is a good idea?  Let me know what you think about any of them in the comments!