March Madness Results
Now that March Madness is over and I finally have some time to write a blog post, I want to discuss March Madness. In particular, I think it is more interesting to discuss the games that I got incorrect and the upsets than to discuss the games the games that several discussed at depth. As such, I will focus on those.
Overall, my bracket was decent. I did not predict the winner correctly (as
Baylor beat Gonzaga), but this was the first time that my champion even made it
to the Final Four, something that resulted in more stress than previous years leading
up to the game. I accurately predicted
several upsets (including the biggest first round upset in the tournament), but
I still had several inaccuracies in rounds.
I got the two finalists right and finished 4th in my work’s pool
(if Gonzaga had won I would have finished first and if I had UCLA in the Final
Four, which I initially had before having them lose in the Elite Eight, I would
have been the runner up, but that’s life).
The rounds after the first round still proof to be a kryptonite of mine
at times though.
All games are listed in order by lowest seed winning by
round. All statistics are from https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/.
Round 1
15 Oral
Roberts beats 2 Ohio State 75-72
This was the biggest upset I predicted and everyone I told thought
I was insane for making this prediction.
My thought process with it really came down to Oral Roberts strong
offense, with 81.1 PPG (14th in the NCAA), 11.1 3P (1st),
38.0% from 3 (16th), and 82.1 FT% (1st), though they didn’t
take many free throws (17.1 FTA, 234th in the NCAA). I thought a strong offense would be what it
would take to have this kind of upset, similar to how UMBC beat Virginia as a
16 seed. I also didn’t think the team
was notable enough and didn’t have anyone I expect to be drafted (with all due
respect to Duane Washington and E.J. Liddell).
Interestingly enough, they only shot 31.4% from 3, but Ohio State faired
worse, shooting 5-23 from 3 (21.7%) and 9-18 from the line (50%). Ultimately, Oral Roberts was helped by Kevin
Obanor and Max Abmas, who scored a combined 59 points in the game.
14 Abilene
Christian beats 3 Texas 53-52 (Incorrect prediction)
I considered having Abilene Christian winning this one since
they have a strong defense, leading the NCAA by forcing 578 turnovers (19.9 per
game) and the fact that the Texas has multiple reliable players who were
younger, which doesn’t translate to tournament success. Ultimately, I went with Texas since I didn’t
trust Abilene Christian enough offensively, as they shot 44.9% from the field
(120th) and 34.4% from 3 (145th). That said, I wasn’t expecting Texas to have
more turnovers than field goals made (22 and 18 respectively) and Texas’s Greg
Brown, an expected first round pick, to play just 6 minutes.
13 Ohio
beats 4 Virginia 62-58 (Incorrect prediction)
This was a matchup I was eyeing but did not select; I was
tempted to choose Ohio because of the uncertainty given UVA’s Covid situation and
presence of Ohio’s Jason Preston, a guard who can seemingly do everything. I mainly went with UVA because I figured at
least one of Jay Huff, Sam Hauser, and Trey Murphy would pull out a victory. That said, I wasn’t expecting UVA to shoot
25.8% from deep (8-31), Preston to be 2 assists away from a triple double (11
points on 4-7 shooting, 13 rebounds, and 8 assists), and Huff, Hauser, and
Murphy to combine for 12-36 from the field (33.3%).
13 North
Texas beats 4 Purdue 78-69
I accurately chose this game and I wish I could honestly say
that I did some sort of intense analysis for this game that led me to a
confident decision; I just did it because I wasn’t particularly impressed with
anyone on Purdue. Would I have imagined
that North Texas would blow out Purdue in FG% (47.5% vs. 36.2%) and 3P% (42.9%
vs. 30.0%). North Texas also had 3
players with at least 16 points and another with 13 while Purdue only had 2
with more than 10. That said, Purdue’s
Jaden Ivey likely got some draft buzz after scoring 26 points; that said, he
only went 10-24 (41.7%).
12 Oregon
State beats 5 Tennessee 70-56 (Incorrect prediction)
I would be lying if I said I even gave this result any
consideration; Tennessee senior Yves Pons is the leader that would help
sophomore Josiah-Jordan and freshmen Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer (both of
whom could be first round picks) with adjusting to their first tournament. What I wasn’t expecting was for Tennessee to
only score 19 in the first half. Basically,
Oregon State was consistent from the field (48.2%) and had 6 players shooting
more than 40% while Tennessee was consistently bad from the field (33.3%) with
only 2 players shooting more than 40% (the only of the four aforementioned in
that group was Springer).
11 UCLA
beats 6 BYU 73-62
I accurately predicted this matchup and I felt pretty good
about it. BYU was the better team
throughout the season, but they blew an 18-point lead to Gonzaga in their
conference finals and UCLA had Juzang, who can score when he’s hot. Ultimately, Juzang was hot throughout the tourney
and helped UCLA easily win with 27 points on a 10-16 night (3-7 from 3).
11 Syracuse
beats 6 San Diego State 78-62
While I predicted this result correctly, I was torn on this
one for a bit. This game was the epitome
of do I trust the better team (San Diego State) or the team with more talented
players (Syracuse). Ultimately, I went
with Syracuse to win behind Alan Griffin and Quincy Guerrier, but I was nervous
about San Diego State’s Matt Mitchell. While
I can’t say I was expecting this blowout, I also wasn’t expecting Griffin and
Guerrier to combine for 2 points while Buddy Boeheim scored 30 while shooting
7-10 from 3.
10 Maryland
beats 7 UConn 63-54 (Incorrect prediction)
Look, I had UConn incorrectly going to the Sweet 16 for one
reason and one reason only: I put too
much stock in James Bouknight in his first tournament. While I didn’t feel great betting against
Aaron Wiggins or Eric Ayala (more so Wiggins), Bouknight was a mess, only going
6-16 with 15 points. Then again, it is
kind of tough to win while shooting 32.3% from the floor and only scoring 22 in
the first half.
10 Rutgers
beats 7 Clemson 60-56 (Incorrect prediction)
If I were to tell you I didn’t look at this matchup and
write Clemson in pen instantly in my bracket, I would be lying. The reason I chose Clemson is because they
have Aamir Simms, a senior who is one of the most complete players who could go
undrafted, and I couldn’t tell you anything about any Rutgers player. While I still can’t tell you much about
Rutgers this season, I could tell you that Aamir Simms oddly couldn’t score while
only shooting 5-14 from the field for 35.7% (compared to 53.2% during the
season) and 5-13 (38.5%) from 2 (57.3% during the season).
9 Wisconsin
beat 8 North Carolina 85-62 (Incorrect prediction)
I seriously didn’t know on this one, as neither team was
spectacular this season. I went with UNC
since they had Garrison Brooks and Walker Kessler, both of whom have a slim
chance of being drafted (I don’t expect either to be though). Ultimately, those two combined for 12 points
on 5-15 shooting (33.3%, all from 2), while Wisconsin’s Brad Davison and D’Mitrik
Trice combined for 50 points and shot 8-15 from 3 (53.3%). Yup, Wisconsin torched them.
8 Oklahoma
beats 9 Missouri 72-68 (Incorrect prediction)
I originally had Oklahoma winning this game because I
thought the teams were close to equal, but I trusted Oklahoma redshirt senior
Austin Reaves more than Missouri junior Xavier Pinson. However, I changed my mind after I heard De’Vion
Harmon, Oklahoma’s second leading scorer behind Reaves, was out for the first
two rounds with Covid since I wasn’t sure somebody would fill the void. Ultimately, Reaves scored 23 (albeit on 6-16
shooting), Brady Manek scored 19 (6-13), and Elijah Harkless scored 16 (6-10) to
combine for 58 of Oklahoma’s 72 points.
As for Pinson, he struggled mightily, finishing with 2 points on 1-7
shooting; Missouri was lucky that Dru Smith scored 20 points on 6-11 from deep
and Jeremiah Tilmon scored 16 on 6-11 from the field to even give them a chance.
5 Colorado
beats 12 Georgetown 96-73 (Incorrect prediction)
My method of looking at potential draftable players said to
go with Colorado, but I went with Georgetown since they were hot off a Big East
win, it felt fun, and I wasn’t giving enough respect to McKinley Wright IV. Ultimately, it showed Colorado was the better
team, as they could score with ease (60.7% from the field, 64.0% from 3) and Georgetown
could not (39.7% from the field, 33.3% from deep). That said, I wasn’t expecting Jabari Walker
to score 24 points in 20 minutes and go 9-10 from the field and 5-5 from 3;
that was certainly an exciting surprise for him (his average for the season was
7.6 PPG, but he did shoot 52.3% from deep).
Round 2
15 Oral
Robert beats 7 Florida 81-78 (Incorrect prediction)
There were four reasons I said Florida would win here: I thought they had a balanced and deep team led
by Tre Mann and Scottie Lewis, I didn’t think missing Keyontae Johnson presence
on the court enough to cause them to lose this game, I fooled myself into
thinking Florida wouldn’t lose to Oral Roberts, and I underestimated the abilities
of Max Abmas and Kevin Obanor. While
Florida had a balanced effort with 4 players scoring in double figures, Obanor
and Abmas were the games top two scorers and combined for 54 points. With Johnson, I think Florida would have won.
12 Oregon
State beats 4 Oklahoma State 80-70
While I had Tennessee winning and then beating Oklahoma State,
I expected Oregon State to win this matchup.
Oklahoma State was relying on too many underclassmen to make me feel
comfortable predicting them; the only player who played more than 20 MPG on the
team who was not a freshman or sophomore was junior guard Isaac Likekele, who
was the team’s 4th leading scorer.
Don’t get me wrong, Cade Cunningham is a fantastic player and I expect
will be the top pick in the draft (I would target either him or Jalen Suggs in
the draft this year), but I get nervous with predicting freshmen will lead
their teams. Ultimately, Cunningham
struggled from the field (24 points but 6-24 from the field) as did the rest of
the team (27.7% from the field, 27.6% from 3, and a putrid 27.8% from 2), which
makes it almost impossible to win; the fact that they only lost by 10 is a miracle.
11 Syracuse
beats 3 West Virginia 75-72 (Incorrect prediction)
I didn’t consider this result because I thought West
Virginia had a shot of making it to the Final Four behind the strong play of Miles
McBride and Derek Culver. There was a
lot that I wasn’t expecting: Emmitt
Matthews Jr. to lead the team in field goal attempts while only going 6-16, McBride,
Culver, and Matthews to combine for 9-29 (31.0%) from 2, Syracuse’s Buddy Boeheim
to score 25 points and go 6-13 (46.2%) from 3, West Virginia to have a higher
percentage from 3 (42.3%) than 2 (34.1%) while attempting 44 2’s and 26 3’s,
and West Virginia to lose despite 18 more attempts from the field than Syracuse
(70 vs. 52). This stat sums up West
Virginia’s game: they had 17 offensive
rebounds and lost.
8 Loyola
Chicago beats 1 Illinois 71-58 (Incorrect prediction)
I had Illinois in the Final Four largely based on potential
first-round pick Ayo Dosunmu and potential second round pick Kofi Cockburn. I think what happened in this game is best
summed up by how Dan Le Batard explained on The Dan Le Batard Show with
Stugotz in how Illinois played against Loyola’s Cameron Krutwig, by
effectively describing the game plan as ignoring the scouting report and
deciding to consistently run at him and not take him seriously after looking at
him. The center thrived, with 19 points
on 9-18 shooting, 12 rebounds, 5 assists, and 4 steals. For what it’s worth, Cockburn played well with
a game high 21 points on 7-12 shooting and 9 rebounds, but Dosunmu had more
turnovers (6) than field goals made (4) or assists (2).
7 Oregon
beats 2 Iowa 95-80 (Incorrect prediction)
I thought Iowa would make it to the Elite Eight and was the
team most likely to beat Gonzaga due to a strong shooting team and the dominant
Luka Garza. While Garza thrived, scoring
36 points on 14-20 (70%) shooting and pickup up 9 rebounds (including 4 on the
offensive end), the rest of the team was dreadful, going 17-48 (35.4%) from the
field. Joe Wieskamp was the only other
player who finished with multiple 3’s, but even he only went 7-17 (41.2%) from
the field and 3-8 (37.5%) from 3 after shooting 46.2% from deep during the
season. It didn’t help that Oregon had 4
players with 17 or more points while shooting 55.9% from the field and 44.0%
from 3.
6 USC beats
3 Kansas 85-51 (Incorrect prediction)
Despite the strong and deep team that Kansas had, I thought
it was possible for USC to win considering their deep team as well, led by the
Mobley brothers (I had Kansas winning this game though). I wasn’t expecting this as a result; my
analysis of this game could be summed up as nobody on Kansas could score (29.0%
from the field, 24.0% from 3) and almost everybody could for USC (57.1% from
the field, 61.1% from 3). Kansas even
forced more turnovers than USC (13 USC turnovers while Kansas had 8 steals, 7
turnovers for Kansas on 3 USC steals), but they couldn’t stop USC from scoring while
being unable to score on their own. It
was pretty much over when USC was up 40-21 at the half.
3 Arkansas
beats 6 Texas Tech 68-66 (Incorrect prediction)
I said that Texas Tech would beat Arkansas and that wasn’t a
tough debate in my prediction post, but I think in retrospect that this was
unfair to Justin Smith. He showed I misjudged
this in the game, scoring 20 points on 9-11 shooting and obtaining 6
rebounds. I think that had I given him
the credit he’d deserve and thought he could be the lead scorer in lieu of any
struggles from Moses Moody (who still played well, scoring 15 points on 6-11
shooting) then this result would have surprised me. That said, it was weird that Texas Tech was
brutal on 2’s (29.3%) while thriving from 3 (50.0%) and Arkansas was decent
from 2 (48.9%) while horrible from 3 (23.5%).
1 Michigan
beats 8 LSU 86-78 (Incorrect prediction)
I predicted LSU would win this game because of Isaiah Livers’
injury. Had he been healthy, I probably
would have had them making the Elite Eight (maybe even Final Four), but I was
skeptical about this outcome here. While
I absolutely trust Franz Wagner and Hunter Dickinson for Michigan, I feel
comfortable with Cam Thomas, Trendon Watford, Javonte Smart, and Darius Days
out there for LSU, so I had LSU winning.
Needless to say, I wasn’t expecting Michigan’s leading scorer to be Eli
Brooks, who scored 21 points on 7-11 shooting and 5-9 from 3 (for reference, he
averaged 9.5 PPG during the season).
Once you have that, even the 57 points from Thomas and Smart might not
be enough to win.
Sweet 16
12 Oregon
State beats 8 Loyola Chicago 65-58
I didn’t have an official prediction who would win this
matchup (I had Illinois beating Tennessee in this game), but I thought Loyola
might be able to win. Basically, my
analysis of this game came down to three things. First, I never realized just how good of a
playmaker Loyola’s Cameron Krutwig was; he had 4 assists that game and 3.0 APG
during the season, but watching him makes you realize just how smart of a
player he is. Second, Oregon State’s Ethan
Thompson was really good at getting to the line (8-8 for FT); he struggled from
2 (4-10), but it looked like there were many plays where he was trying to make
plays to get to the line. Lastly, if Loyola’s
Lucas Williamson had been able to make in a shot (3-11 from the field, 2-8 from
3), I believe they would have won; he shot 35.9% from 3 on 4.1 attempts per
game during the season, so this one was a fluke that they relied on him so much
and he missed so much.
11 UCLA
beats 2 Alabama 88-78
I had UCLA beating UConn in this game, so I was a bit nervous
since I thought Alabama would either lose in the second round or go to the
Final Four. Ultimately, UCLA forced
Alabama’s stars to struggle as John Petty scored 16 points while only going
5-15 and 2-7 from 3 while Herbert Jones scored just 8 points while attempting
just 6 shots (he made 3 of them, but he didn’t shoot much). They forced Jahvon Quinerly to attempt 22
shots and he only wound up going 8-22 (he scored 20 points, but was still
inefficient). UCLA attempted more shots
(74 vs. 69), forced more turnovers (14 vs. 7), and shot much better from the
line (20-25 vs. 11-25) to make up for a putrid game from Johnny Juzang (13
points on 5-18 from the field).
1 Michigan
beats 4 Florida State 76-58 (Incorrect prediction)
Look, I had Florida State winning because I thought they
would be playing LSU. Oddly, while I had
LSU beating Michigan, I thought Michigan would beat Florida State since FSU
doesn’t have the top heavy talent I thought they would need to top Michigan
(even with Isaiah Livers injured).
Ultimately, that was the case; Florida State only had 2 players who
scored 10 points while Michigan had 4 and, despite Michigan’s struggles from
the line (15-23, 65.2%), they still ran away with it.
Elite 8
11 UCLA
beats 1 Michigan 51-49
I wasn’t surprised that UCLA beat Michigan; I figured if Johnny
Juzang was hot, they could win. Previously,
the team had been able to win without him struggling as shown when they beat
Alabama in the previous round. I
originally had UCLA making the Final Four since I had them beating LSU, but
then changed my mind and though Florida State would beat LSU and then
UCLA. Ultimately, both teams struggled
offensively, as Michigan only shot 20-51 (39.2%) and when a UCLA player outside
of Juzang shot, they went 10-35 (28.6%).
The key difference offensively was Juzang, who scored 28 points and 11-19
(57.9%) from the field and was the reason UCLA was able to pull out this win. It also helped that Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson
and Mike Smith went a combined 1-6 from the free throw line, which was a game changer
there.
Championship
Game
1 Baylor
beats 1 Gonzaga 86-70 (Incorrect prediction)
I went with Gonzaga because they were so top heavy that I
thought there was no way that they were likely to pull out with the win unless several
players struggled and would beat Baylor’s depth. Ultimately, several Gonzaga players did
struggle, as they shot just 5-17 (29.4%) from 3 and the only player in their
top 4 that I thought consistently played well was Jalen Suggs, who still
struggled early and still finished with 3 turnovers. Baylor’s guard trio thrived, as Jared Butler
finished with 22 points and 7 assists, MaCio Teague finished with 19 points, and
Davion Mitchell had 15 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists. Adam Flagler played 22 minutes off the bench
but finished with 13 points and went 3-4 from 3, Mark Vital had 11 rebounds,
and Flo Thamba limited Drew Timme to 7 field goal attempts while forcing him to
commit 5 turnovers and 4 fouls.
Ultimately, it was a better effort for Baylor and their depth, shooting,
and defensive ability came through to make them the champions.
Bonus: Jalen Hill
Jalen Hill, a redshirt junior at UCLA who left the team
during the season for personal reasons, has announced his retirement from basketball
on April 6. Since, he has discussed in
more depth about the mental health reasons for him leaving the game. While more information can be found here, he
discussed that he experienced depression, anxiety, and panic attacks for many
years, but it worsened in college to the point where he would go to games and
return to his apartment to drink some to ease the pain. After he stepped away from the season, he
realized how much of a difference this and discussing it with others was able
to make in his life and his progress towards recovery.
I am thrilled to see that we are at a point in society where
people seem to be accepting of his decision to do this and are pleased for him
and/or offering support. In contrast,
when Larry Sanders announced he was stepping away from the NBA in 2015 to check
into a hospital and be treated for mental health disorders including
depression, anxiety, and mood disorders, there was a large portion of the sports
population that criticized him for leaving the game and for why he wasn’t happy
while being paid millions, a mindset that some people still express in sports
(a la Skip Bayless while previously discussing Dak Prescott). I hope that we are changing to atmosphere
where more people are able to feel comfortable with discussing their health
issues and will not be ashamed of them.
I also am glad to read what he discussed because I can
relate to a sizeable portion of this, of course omitting the basketball
part. I have dealt with several similar
mental health issues since high school and, like Hill, have been largely
reluctant to discuss them. While Hill
has said that it was difficult to discuss it with people outside his roommate and
therapist, I have been at times resistant to even discuss with my therapist
since I often feel like discussing my mental health issues with others is often
burdening them with my life and that I don’t matter enough to put that onto
them. Even after being hospitalized in
late October 2018, I still have these same kinds of feelings and know I have a
lot of work before reaching the point where I feel comfortable discussing more
openly what I experience with anyone, even medical professionals. I am fortunate that I have reached a point
where I am aware of when I am experiencing an anxiety attack, mental breakdown,
or depressive episode, but I still know I have a long way to go with dealing
with it. I know that I still cannot
bring myself to do anything when I am experiencing this. I know that I tend to not eat when I get
really depressed and often get disgusted by the thought of food at times. I know that I still do have doubts about my self-worth
at this point and even contemplate what my life would even be like without me,
even though I don’t partake in any self-harm or suicidal habits at this
point. I know that I am often too hard
on myself and I need to work on being more accepting of who I am and even being
pleased with what I am able to accomplish at times. I know I have a lot that I need to work on
but still need to remind myself that I have come a long way with my own journey
and struggles with mental health issues.
I need to continue to remind myself not to be ashamed of myself.
I want to finish off with one quote that Hill said regarding
his change in approach in his journey towards recovery.
“Focus on the good things, because when you get into a
situation where you are anxious or you are going through mental health
problems, you tend to focus on only that and that’s pretty much the only thing
that you’re going to get because that’s the only thing that your mind is
focused on. So, instead, try to focus on
the small things and you don’t have to lie to yourself, just be aware of the
fact that what you’re going through is what you’re going through, but saying
that the next day is going to be better and that’s not a lie at all — but
instead of just saying it, knowing it, knowing that the next day is going to be
better, knowing that whichever opportunity you’re going to get next is going to
be a successful one.”
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