The Top 5: Evaluating the Expected Top 5 Picks in the 2021 NBA Draft

We have reached a point in the NBA season where many people constantly debate who is deserving of several awards.  I personally find doing that silly during the season since it can change so drastically based on recent performances.  That said, I want to debate and consider something, so I am focusing on a topic I find much for fun:  the 2021 NBA Draft.  This year, there are 5 highly touted players expected to go near the top:  Cade Cunningham, Jalen Suggs, Evan Mobley, Jalen Green, and Jonathan Kuminga.  I am going to discuss, analyze, evaluate them, and discuss which teams in the lottery should consider looking into them.

I do want to note that my scouting is not always 100% accurate; while this should go unsaid, people seem to retroactively criticize incorrect scouting reports and decisions and act like it is easy to predict success.  In recent history, I was incredibly high on Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum, Ja Morant, and De’Aaron Fox, all of whom have looked excellent so far, but I incorrectly was extremely high on Malik Monk and Mo Bamba (even though I still think they are just with the wrong teams and will still be good players).  Additionally, while I was extremely critical of Marvin Bagley III (which has aged well, especially considering he was drafted one pick before Doncic), I also was critical of Trae Young (even though I still have my doubts considering several weaknesses and inconsistencies of his), Anthony Edwards (though I was right for the first few months this season), and LaMelo Ball (the only things I got right with him was that he is a great playmaker and loves basketball). 

All statistics are according to https://www.sports-reference.com/.  While most draft analysts use per 36 or 40 minutes for college, I use per game since I think it gives a better perspective of what the player is at this time (I do also include the minutes per game).

I have two bonuses in this post, one brief one regarding the death of Terrence Clarke and one regarding the Derek Chauvin verdict.

 

Cade Cunningham

Info:  Oklahoma State, Freshman, 19 Years Old, Point Guard/Shooting Guard, 6’8, 220 lbs.

Stats:  27 G, 35.4 MPG, 20.1 PPG (43.8 FG%, 40.0 3P%, 84.6 FT%), 3.5 APG, 6.2 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 0.8 BPG, 4.0 TOV

Cade Cunningham has caught the attention of just about every NBA team and is, at this time, expected to be the first pick in the Draft.  He is tall for a guard (6’8), can be a solid playmaker, and can shoot, which should make him a pest to defend.  I have heard several people compare him to Ben Simmons due to both being tall point guards who can defend and rebound, but I think the comparisons stop there; Simmons is a much better defender and playmaker while Cunningham is a much better shooter.  I feel like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a closer comparison, even though I think that the best comparison would be an elevated version of Lonzo Ball.

Strengths:  He is smart with running plays and playmaking.  While he had more turnovers than assists, he is good at setting up an offense so that either someone else winds up with an assist or he scores.  Oklahoma State was a young team this year, so I believe his presence was a large part of how they played so well this year.  He has amazing size and plays hard defensively, so it is intriguing to imagine how much he will be able to switch onto other defenders.  He is smart off the ball and is a great shooter (especially on catch-and-shoot plays), so it would likely work if he were to play with another point guard.  He is a versatile player who has a lot of strengths.  He is also typically well-liked and respected by teammates and has shown ability to be a strong leader.

Weaknesses:  There really aren’t many for him, but the biggest one might be that he isn’t an elite athlete, which could cause a little bit of growing pains in terms of finishing at the rim and guarding smaller and faster guards initially.  I think he will be able to find ways to make it work so I’m not too worried about it in the long-term.  He did turn the ball over frequently in college and had a large number from bad passes, something that will take some time to improve on.  While he is excellent at several things, will he be elite at any talents in the NBA?  I think the answer will be yes for multiple traits, but it’s worth watching.  The biggest one that might be on teams’ minds:  will he be able to be the lead player on a championship team?  I think he can be eventually, but there is reason to question if there isn’t the right team around him.

Who should draft him:  Anybody.  He can play on and off the ball, can guard multiple positions, and can shoot.  I don’t believe that Houston or Detroit have a definitive star for their future yet (though both teams have complimentary pieces that could work), so Cunningham could work.  Additionally, I think he could play alongside the guards in Orlando, Oklahoma City, Minnesota, or Cleveland.  A few teams that could be massive surprises and change the game are Chicago, Indiana, and Washington.  Chicago’s pick is going to Orlando, but is top-4 protected; this could solve Chicago’s point guard issues that will not be solved by either Coby White or Zach LaVine playmaking.  Indiana has been playing better lately, but if they end up in the lottery and get lucky with the balls, they would be able to shift Malcolm Brogdon more to an off-ball player, which he is so skilled at.  As for Washington, would Cunningham be enough to convince Bradley Beal to stay?  If not, they will have their next star to try to build around.

 

Jalen Suggs

Info:  Gonzaga, Freshman, 19 Years Old, Point Guard, 6’4, 205 lbs.

Stats:  30 G, 28.9 MPG, 14.4 PPG (50.3 FG%, 33.7 3P%, 76.1 FT%), 4.5 APG, 5.3 RPG, 1.9 SPG, 0.3 BPG, 2.9 TOV

I know it became popular to love Jalen Suggs after his deep bucket to knock UCLA out during the Final Four, but Suggs has been my favorite out of these five for one massive reason:  he effectively got to Gonzaga and played like he didn’t care about his own stats anywhere near as much as winning yet still thrived statistically.  He is a smart playmaker and decision maker, great defender, great athlete, and strong finisher.  I have heard comparisons to Chauncy Billups, which is fair, but I don’t feel quite safe assuming he’ll reach that level, yet he’s not as bad a shooter as someone like De’Aaron Fox was to start; if there’s a guard who fits the bill somewhere between there for shooting ability (maybe early career Jamal Murray?).  I have likened him to Kyle Lowry at times due to his ability to try to win however he can while still looking like a star player.

Strengths:  As I mentioned, he wants to win; he will make the right plays as a result even if it means he doesn’t get a stat to help his numbers.  He also is really mature; I watch him and have always felt like the decisions he makes were those that would be made by a 10-year NBA veteran and not a 19-year-old in college.  He is also very athletic, which helped him get into the paint and defend well in college.  He plays hard defensively and so smart about the plays to make.  He is a good passer and rebounder for his size.  He also is able to play off the ball at times because he is good at moving and making plays off the ball. Overall, he does a lot well and is well-balanced.  He is NBA-ready already.

Weakness:  There are very few weaknesses of his because he is good at so much.  While he has potential to be a good shooter, he can be streaky at times now.  It wouldn’t surprise me if he shoots under 32% from 3 as a rookie and doesn’t top 34% in his next two seasons.  He might have difficulties playing alongside another point guard as a result, especially if the other guard is not a good shooter.  While he is a good athlete, he might struggle at the rim at times in his rookie year.  The biggest question is what his ceiling could be; while I think he will be a multiple time All-Star and possible All-NBA player, there is a chance he has the lowest ceiling out of the top 5.

Who should draft him:  As much as I would love to say that anybody should due to how much of a fan I am of his, I think a better answer might be a team that has the room for another point guard.  I absolutely love the fit of him in Houston long-term; I think he and Christian Wood could be a dream pick-and-roll/pop combination.  I also love the fit of him in Oklahoma City; he and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander would be an elite guard tandem.  I could also see him being a good fit on teams like Chicago, New Orleans, Toronto, and Washington if any of them get lucky in the lottery.  While it could be a clunky fit at first in Detroit with Killian Hayes, they need a superstar and if Suggs is the best available, he’s the one.  I would love to see him in Minnesota because I think he could help create a winning culture and make Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns even better, but the presence of D’Angelo Russell is in the way (and he’s a bit untradeable right now).

 

Evan Mobley

Info:  USC, Freshman, 19 Years Old, Center, 7’0, 215 lbs.

Stats:  33 G, 33.9 MPG, 16.4 PPG (57.8 FG%, 30.0 3P%, 69.4 FT%), 2.4 APG, 8.7 RPG, 0.8 SPG, 2.9 BPG, 2.2 TOV

Evan Mobley is a big man who has the potential to have a massive impact on both ends of the floor.  He has especially shown ability to finish, defend, and shoot a little bit, making him an enticing player.  The most common comparison that is made is to Chris Bosh due to his potential to space the floor, defend, and score at a high level.  Even if he doesn’t reach that point, he could be something like Christian Wood at absolute worst with glimpses of playmaking that will be reminiscent of Bam Adebayo.

Strengths:  He is an excellent on-ball defender in the paint; he blocks shots at a high rate (2.9) while barely fouling (1.8).  He also is smart about reading different defensive plays which will likely help him acclimate faster defensively than most rookies are able to.  He is an elite finisher in the paint and is smart about when to set picks and then roll/pop.  He has shown potential as a shooter off the pass.  He is also a good passer for a big man and is willing to make the right play.

Weaknesses:  While he is smart defensively, he is skinnier and light for his size; he will likely struggle in his first couple seasons against more talented big men.  While there’s potential for him to shoot (30.0 3P%), he struggled from the free throw line (69.4%) which is normally an indicator of initial struggles from deep.  I think it is essential for him to improve his shot to make a big jump considering how skinny he is.  He does turn the ball over a decent amount (2.2), but part of that might have been due to a high usage rate.  One of the biggest questions I’ve heard about him is whether he can be the top player on a competitive team given his style of play and the current style; I think it is a possibility.

Who should draft him:  Any team that could use at least one more big man.  I think he would be able to play alongside other big men (especially if they can shoot), so a pairing of him with Wendell Carter Jr. in Orlando or Cristian Wood in Houston could work.  He might be able to make it work in Detroit with Isaiah Stewart or Cleveland with Jarrett Allen.  A team like Oklahoma City or Sacramento should also consider him; he would play really well in Sacramento due to how a pick and roll would work with him and De’Aaron Fox. 

 

Jalen Green

Info:  G-League Ignite, 19 Years Old, Shooting Guard, 6’5, 165 lbs.

Stats:  15 G, 32.0 MPG, 17.9 PPG (46.1 FG%, 36.5 3P%, 82.9 FT%), 2.8 APG, 4.1 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 0.3 BPG, 2.7 TOV

Jalen Green is probably the best example of the G-League Ignite program working, as he gave scouts an idea of just how explosive he is.  He is a great athlete and has shown that he looks polished as a finisher and a shooter at times.  He certainly is going to put on a show with his ability to create highlight plays if nothing else.  Probably the cleanest comparison is Zach LaVine; there are a lot of things that LaVine did upon first entering the league that I expect Green to do as well.

Strengths:  He is an excellent athlete; if it wasn’t for Kuminga, Green would without a doubt be the best athlete in this class.  He has elite ability finishing, can catch alley-oops (even if they are off bad passes), and will likely find a way to the rim if a sliver of daylight is available; if he’s not a Slam Dunk Contest champion by the time he retires, we’re doing something wrong.  He’s a good ball handler and has shown that he can pass, but he likely won’t be the lead ball handler at any point.  While I was nervous about his shooting ability prior to the G-League season, he shot decently from 3 (36.5%) and very well from the line (82.9%).  He has potential to be a solid defender and improved during the G-League Bubble.

Weaknesses:  He is not a particularly good defender at this time; he has a lot of lapses in focus and is skinner.  While I expect him to be fine eventually, it will be a rough first few years from the defensive end.  While he showed glimpses of playmaking ability, he still has a high number of turnovers; these could probably be decreased if he is smarter with his passing when he can’t get a bucket.  He has struggled some in the half court, but I figure he’ll improve on this within a few seasons.  The biggest question I expect to prevail is whether he can be the top player on a competitive team (similar to those that have reigned with LaVine).  If he can improve his defense, Green might be able to.

Who should draft him:  Anybody who could use another wing, especially those who could use a star.  In particular, expect Detroit, Houston, Orlando, and Oklahoma City to do their due diligence on him.  He might also be able to fit in Cleveland from an offensive standpoint, but they would really be setting themselves up for a poor defense for a few years.  Could he fit with Sacramento?  That could really be a fast-paced and fun offense with him and De’Aaron Fox.

 

Jonathan Kuminga

Info:  G-League Ignite, 18 Years Old, Small Forward, 6’8, 220 lbs.

Stats:  13 G, 32.8 MPG, 15.8 PPG (38.7 FG%, 24.6 3P%, 62.5 FT%), 2.7 SPG, 7.2 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 0.8 BPG, 2.6 TOV

Another benefactor of the G-League Ignite, Jonathan Kuminga is a freak athlete who can be exciting to watch.  While he is raw and is a few years away from being a starter on a quality team, there is a lot he can do well now, which makes for a good foundation for somebody so young.  His ceiling is a bit of a mystery due to how raw he is; if he improves his jumper, he could be similar to Paul George, but I would expect something closer to Luol Deng or even Andre Iguodala (maybe some more similarities to Danny Granger could evolve if he improves his shot selection).

Strengths:  He is an elite athlete.  As athletic as Green is, I would consider Kuminga the best athlete in this class; I also think he’s a better athlete than anybody drafted last year.  While he is raw, he has a strong base in a lot of aspects, which makes his ceiling enticing and his floor manageable enough for a top 5 pick.  He is a strong finisher at the rim and has shown glimpses of being able to shoot some inside the arc.  He is a surprisingly good ball handler and playmaker for his size and playing style and has shown that he can make good decisions with passes.  He has shown defensive ability in select doses and doesn’t foul a ton.  He crashes the boards hard, especially at the defensive end, and is often successful at boxing guys out.  He is also only 18, which gives him more time to grow.

Weaknesses:  If there is one word that will likely sum him up at this point, it is raw; I expect there to be at least a couple years of fans criticizing the selection before there is a chance that it pays off.  He often has trouble with decision making in a lot of aspects of the game.  He turns the ball over a decent amount because he gets flustered in coverage and he often takes poor shots, which is something he will need to improve on if he wants to be more on the offensive than somebody trying to imitate Jerry Stackhouse but without the touch that Stackhouse had.  He also is a poor shooter at this point; while there have been glimpses of him being able to hit shots, he only shot 62.5% from free throws and 24.6% from 3.  While it is tempting to say he can improve, how many top-10 picks in the draft who were poor shooters to start their career finished as competent ones?  He also often looks lost defensively on several rotations.  In general, drafting him means that a team realizes it will take time and effort to get the ideal payoff.

Who should draft him:  Anybody who is willing to put in the time and effort and has the time to wait.  Detroit and Oklahoma City are the two teams that I think are best for him while Orlando could also work.  Beyond that, it really comes down to whoever has the 5^th pick in the draft.  If nothing else, there will likely be a team that could give up a lot for him.  That said, he is an intriguing prospect due to his potential and how strong he is in some essential areas.

 

 

Bonus 1:  Terrence Clarke

On April 22^nd, 19-year-old Terrence Clarke, who played for Kentucky this past season, died in a car accident.  He collided with another car who was waiting to turn, hit a street pole, and then hit a brick wall.  He declared for the 2021 NBA Draft and was in the process of training for the Draft (prior to the combine, I was expecting him to be drafted somewhere in the second round). 

All accounts I have read portrayed him as an individual who people loved and was able to make everyone smile.  I have heard several suggest either a team drafts him with a late second round pick or add an additional honorary pick to remember Clarke.  I hope that there is an honorary pick since it sounds like he touched the lives of everyone involved in his life.

My thoughts, prayers, and condolences go to his family, friends, and loved ones.  It’s so sad to hear him losing his life so young and missing out on the remained of his life.  Rest in peace, Terrence.

 

 

Bonus 2:  Derek Chauvin Verdict

On April 20^th, Dereck Chauvin was found guilty of all three charges against him (second-degree murder, third-degree murder, and second-degree murder) for the murder of George Floyd, and is awaiting sentencing on June 16^th.

While a lot of individuals were quick to react to the verdict, I held off for a couple reasons.  While I partly wanted to see how people responded, I also did not think my voice (from a white male who has not has not witnessed anything like this in person before) was what was needed on the 20^th.  That said, I would like to give my thoughts regarding the verdict, especially since I have some views that aren’t as commonly discussed.

Even though I had heard many experts discussing that the quick decision by the jury likely would result in being found guilty of all charges, I was still nervous that there would be a verdict that resulted in at least one charge (maybe even all of them) coming back as not guilty considering how difficult it is to prove guilt beyond reasonable doubt and the fact that there were still a surprisingly high number of individuals supporting Chauvin.  I was relieved when I heard the guilty verdicts because I thought it was the most obvious ruling, but at this point nothing is given, not even an obvious murder.  That said, I heard a lot of discussions regarding how this conviction was a sign of progress, which is something that concerns me a bit.

This verdict result is not progress.  On paper, it is progress for a white police officer who murders an unarmed black individual to receive justice, but we cannot look at this situation in a vacuum.  During the trial, several witnesses testified that Chauvin did not follow proper procedures and used excessive force, that Floyd almost certainly did not die from drug overdose, and often implied that this could have been avoided.  In my opinion, this means that the verdict is justice being fulfilled, but not progress; this was an obvious case of an officer unjustly murdering an unarmed individual.  This doesn’t change police reform because Minneapolis’s police department themselves said his actions were not justifiable.

This cannot be considered progress if we are to truly make progress in society.  What is progress is people coming together and protesting when somebody is unjustly murdered.  Progress is when people who have not dealt with anything like this try to educate themselves and see what they can do to help.  Progress is when those with the power to make change realize that it is time to change.  I do not consider it progress when the initial police report filed blatantly lied about the situation and only was discovered when the video went viral.  I don’t consider progress when an officer unjustly uses force for an irrational extended period of time on someone unarmed who is not fighting back.

While it sadly might be a surprise to see this result in a verdict, we as a society cannot allow this to define progress.  If we do, then we have stooped to a point where we have lower standards about what is considered a step forward; this is like taking a step back along with that step forward in my mind.  If this is progress, then there is a lower standard for what individuals who want to prevent progress will accept; in that case, those who are opposed to equality will be even more opposed because they think equality is less.  We cannot let this happen, so this cannot and is not progress.

While it is good that justice was served, Floyd’s family still has to live with the fact that he was murdered at the hands of those who agreed to protect us.  I understand that it’s easy to write anytime a cop does something horrible like this as one bad apple, but continuously writing off situations is the same as accepting his death as something that can happen.  No amount of justice will ever cure the pain left on his family and losing a life because a police officer did something he wasn’t supposed to do anyways is not progress.  This was a case of murder and the jury seeing it for what it was.