My Playoff Predictions
We have finally reached the point where the NBA Playoffs are here! This year, I honestly am not sure who will win it all; there are probably 8 teams who have a chance. That said, I will make my predictions for each round for the Playoffs. If I don’t do well, I will blame the difficulties in the matchups and uncertainty of injuries. That said, here are my official playoff predictions for 2021.
Standings
East
1. Philadelphia 76ers
2. Brooklyn Nets
3. Milwaukee Bucks
4. New York Knicks
5. Atlanta Hawks
6. Miami Heat
7. Boston Celtics
8. Washington Wizards
9. Indiana Pacers
10. Charlotte Hornets
West
1. Utah Jazz
2. Phoenix Suns
3. Denver Nuggets
4. Los Angeles Clippers
5. Dallas Mavericks
6. Portland Trail Blazers
7. Los Angeles Lakers
8. Golden State Warriors
9. Memphis Grizzlies
10. San Antonio Spurs
My
Predictions
Play-In
Tournament
East 7 vs. 8: 8
Washington Wizards at 7 Boston Celtics: Wizards
win
If Jaylen Brown was there, Boston would win this one. The best way to stop them is to heavily guard
Bradley Beal, prevent Russell Westbrook from getting close to the paint, and
block all of Westbrook’s passing lanes. The
issue is that they don’t have the defense to do that outside of Marcus Smart
and they don’t have the offense without Brown to outscore them.
East 9 vs. 10: 10
Charlotte Hornets at 9 Indiana Pacers: Hornets
win
This could go either way, but I’m not looking the way the
injury report has been going recently for the Pacers. Malcolm Brogdon, Myles Turner, and Caris
LeVert all possibly dealing with injuries?
Even without Gordon Hayward, the Hornets are feisty enough that Domantas
Sabonis will come up just short.
East for 8 seed:
10 Charlotte Hornets at 7 Boston Celtics: Celtics win
I do not trust the Hornets and their general lack of playoff
experience in this kind of matchup when Gordon Hayward is injured. I also think that the Celtics might realize
they actually have to play hard to not be eliminated.
West 7 vs. 8: 8
Golden State Warriors at 7 Los Angeles Lakers:
Lakers win
While some would point out that the Lakers have to stop
Steph Curry, my bigger question is who do the Warriors have that will stop Anthony
Davis and LeBron James? Draymond Green
can only guard one of them at a time and I don’t think Juan-Toscano is big
enough to stop James. Now that both look
healthy, it will be too much for the Warriors in this game. That said, never count out Curry or Green for
one game.
West 9 vs. 10: 10
San Antonio Spurs at 9 Memphis Grizzlies:
Grizzlies win
This could go either way, but the Spurs have been abysmal
lately and the Grizzlies are hungry to make the playoffs after just missing
last season. The outcome could change if
Grayson Allen is still out due to injury.
Either way, I think this will be a close game.
West for 8 seed: 9
Memphis Grizzlies at 8 Golden State Warriors:
Warriors win
I think their final game of the season is a preview for what
to expect in the play-in game: even if
you put one player on Steph Curry who can stop him for a half, good luck when
he switches off him or is ready after adjusting for the next half.
1st
Round
East 1 vs. 8: 1
Philadelphia 76ers vs. 8 Boston Celtics:
76ers win 4-1
The good news for Boston is that they don’t have to play a
Nets team I think they have no chance of stopping. The bad news is that I don’t think they stand
a chance against the 76ers. While
neither team has a bench that I am particularly fond of, the 76ers will have
guys who can reliably score off the bench such as Shake Milton and Furkan
Korkmaz. The 76ers will likely put Ben
Simmons on Jayson Tatum and once other players struggle, he will try to do
everything himself which is kind of impossible with Simmons on you. They likely don’t have the personal to
properly match up against either Joel Embiid or Tobias Harris defensively, so
this will be rough. I think the only way
Boston even has a chance of winning is if prime Larry Bird walked through the
door, but he might be too angry at them after a couple games to bother continuing
with this team. The 76ers are simply
better and it will show in this series.
East 2 vs. 7: 2
Brooklyn Nets vs. 7 Washington Wizards:
Nets win 4-2
I think it is clear that Brooklyn is the better team, but
when two offensive teams face each other, it often comes down to who gets the last
bucket, which can change by the game. I
think that at least one game the Wizards win will be close and at least two
(maybe three) games that the Nets win will be blowouts. You can’t rule out a sweep when two teams are
playing for a shootout; I think the Wizards will simply score more in two
games, but even with Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook, you really think I can
simply dismiss Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving? The Nets are also a deeper team, which works
against the Wizards for the series.
East 3 vs. 6: 3
Milwaukee Bucks vs. 6 Miami Heat: Bucks
win 4-2
Expect many Heat fan to talk about how Miami is set for a
Finals run here. This is entirely
possible, but can you really rely on their role players? Jimmy Butler has had an exceptional year and
Bam Adebayo has played well, but the team has been hampered by injuries and
inconsistencies. I don’t feel as though I
can trust Tyler Herro to thrive in this series given I couldn’t trust him to
make open 3’s at times. While Kendrick
Nunn has improved in decision making, will he play like he’s more focused on
his numbers? Even while players like
Trevor Ariza have played well, I think it will be difficult to match up against
the Bucks. I think the Heat will
struggle to find the proper match ups against the Giannis Antetokounmpo at
center lineups; while you could argue to have Adebayo on Antetokounmpo and Butler
on either Khris Middleton or Jrue Holiday, you still have the other to deal
with, and I think both would blow Trevor Ariza out. Ultimately, the Bucks have better players to oppose
the Heat.
East 4 vs. 5: 4
New York Knicks vs. 5 Atlanta Hawks:
Knicks win 4-2
While the presence of Mitchell Robinson would be essential
in this matchup, New York has Nerlens Noel who can do one thing that is needed
to beat the Hawks: take away the
paint. I know that many would point to
the fact that they have several players who can shoot, but limiting paint shots
limits the role Clint Capela can play and eliminates one location where Trae
Young can be effective. While the Hawks
have multiple players who can shoot, the Knicks have multiple players who can
defend: Reggie Bullock is a good wing
defender, Julius Randle has improved to the point where I think he can give
John Collins at least a bit of a challenge behind the arc, Alec Burks has
improved as a wing defender, and Elfrid Payton could at least challenge some of
their guards. The biggest question I
have is who the Knicks would put on Young; further, they might have the players
to defend everyone else, so would that force Young to take questionable
shots? He only shot 43.9% from the floor
and 34.3% from 3, so it could work. Also,
I think the Knicks offense in the midrange will be too much for the Hawks
defense.
West 1 vs. 8: 1 Utah
Jazz vs. 8 Golden State Warriors: Jazz
win 4-2
I would be shocked if this series was a sweep. You can expect there to be a game or two (or
six) where Steph Curry goes insane, but ultimately two can tango from deep; Utah
finished first in 3’s made and attempted while finishing top 5 in made and
leading the league in rebounds. They
also have Rudy Gobert out there who will take away most of the shots in the
paint by their largely inexperienced bench.
The Warriors might be able to slow down some players through Draymond
Green and Juan Toscono-Anderson, but I question how they can stop Mike Conley
or Bojan Bogdanovic when the focus on Donovan Mitchell. I also expect that the Jazz will vastly
outscore the Warriors when Curry sits, given that the Jazz’s bench is loaded. The thing to watch in this series is how Utah’s
health will be; while they might be able to get by if Conley is still nursing
an injury, but not Mitchell.
West 2 vs. 7: 2
Phoenix Suns vs. 7 Los Angeles Lakers:
Lakers win 4-3
The first major upset of the tournament is here, and really
it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise.
I think this will be a hard-fought matchup by both sides, but ultimately
I think that, if healthy, the Lakers have the two best players in the
series. The reason I think it will be so
close is because the Suns are a stronger shooting team and I like Phoenix’s
depth more than L.A.’s (though I do think their depth is highly
underrated). Phoenix has 9 or 10 players
I would feel comfortable giving 20 minutes a game to in the right situation,
and Chris Paul and Devin Booker are both incredible while Mikal Bridges and Jae
Crowder are strong 3-and-D players. That
said, Dennis Schroder will likely give one of those guard fits, and I’m not
sure anybody on this team can slow down LeBron James enough to matter or
Anthony Davis at all. That said, the
Suns are nothing to scoff at and will be competitive.
West 3 vs. 6: 3
Denver Nuggets vs. 6 Portland Trail Blazers:
Nuggets win 4-3
If Denver had Jamal Murray, this series would not go to 7
games, but I think this would still go to 6.
Both teams have offenses that are potent and each team has a superstar,
with Denver having probably MVP Nikola Jokic and Portland having Damian Lillard. While Portland’s defense has improved a bit
once Jusuf Nurkic returned from injury, I’m still not sure how they’ll do
against Denver. I think that while Nurkic
will give Jokic some trouble, it wouldn’t surprise me if Jokic strives to force
Nurkic into early foul trouble. While I
think Portland having Norman Powell guard Michael Porter Jr. is a better fit
than having Robert Covington and putting Covington on Aaron Gordon, Powell is 7
inches shorter than Porter, which will make it difficult to contest his
shots. While the Nuggets might not have
options for guarding the dominant guard due of Lillard and C.J. McCollum (maybe
Gordon on one of them in select doses could work), they might be able to make
it work by guarding everybody else.
While Portland’s bench is probably stronger offensively, I think Denver’s
bench is strong enough defensively that they might try to force it where Carmelo
Anthony is taking the majority of the shots and taking very difficult
shots. It could be a high scoring series,
but ultimately the stronger defense will prevail. That said, I could still see Portland and
their offense pulling out a win here.
West 4 vs. 5: 4
Los Angeles Clippers vs. 5 Dallas Mavericks:
Clippers win 4-2
It is going to be difficult to stop Luka Doncic, so I think
the best way to stop him is by stopping everybody else on the team. I think this year will prove more difficult
as the Mavericks have several players who have played well alongside Doncic,
including Tim Hardaway Jr., Jalen Brunson, and even Kristaps Porzingis. Ultimately, I think that there is an issue for
the Mavericks with guarding several players on the team due to their
difficulties defensively. I don’t
believe that the Mavericks have the defense to handle Kawhi Leonard or Paul
George consistently throughout 7 games, but Doncic’s presence will get the Mavericks
a couple games and some continued optimism for the future.
2nd
Round
East 1 vs. 4: 1
Philadelphia 76ers vs. 4 New York Knicks:
76ers win 4-1
Plain and simple, I think the 76ers are a better team
overall and have an additional edge due to playoff experience. While New York has Julius Randle, Philadelphia
has the best player in the series in Joel Embiid and three of the best four
players in Embiid, Ben Simmons, and Tobias Harris. That said, there could be some interesting
things to watch in this one. I am
excited to see how the Embiid-Nerlens Noel matchup goes since Noel is an incredible
defensive player and Embiid is an obvious superstar. The Knicks have a more consistent and deeper
bench with players such as Derrick Rose and Alec Burks, but Doc Rivers has frequently
played Tobias Harris with bench players, which is gives them an edge on
scoring. The Knicks are a tough team and
won’t make it easy, but ultimately the 76ers are just better.
East 2 vs. 3: 2
Brooklyn Nets vs. 3 Milwaukee Bucks: Bucks
win 4-3
I’m really not sure about this series and think it could go either
way. Most expect the Nets to win due to
the offensive power that they have; in addition to the super team of Kevin
Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving, they have Joe Harris, Blake Griffin,
Jeff Green, and Landry Shamet, who are all at least reliable. There are three concerns many have been quick
to point regarding the Nets: health,
chemistry, and defense. I’m not worried
about the health since the team is so deep and are set as long as they have at
least two of Durant, Harden, and Irving.
As for chemistry, there will probably be some issues, but it should be
fine at this point given their playing styles (I think Durant can play with
anyone and Harden is a great playmaker who will make sure everybody eats). The defense is the thing that I’m more worried
about, but not quite for the reason everybody implies; for me, it will depend
on the matchup, and the Bucks will be difficult. The Bucks have several good defenders, so it
is a dangerous strategy to try to outscore them, but the Nets defense will be
difficult to stop multiple players. On
top of that, many defensive players for the Nets will likely receive reduced
minutes as players get more healthy; I’m not sure how much Nic Claxton or
DeAndre Jordan will be playing for them, and Bruce Brown might be difficult to
match up in this series. The best way to
guard Giannis Antetokounmpo is to play team defense and prevent him from
getting to the paint, but now they have several shooters who have improved
(think Brook Lopez, Pat Connaughton, and the addition of Bryn Forbes) and the
addition of Jrue Holiday. Ultimately, I
think the Bucks have the players who can matchup against these players enough while
the Nets frequently don’t. That said, I
expect it to be close.
West 1 vs. 4: 1
Utah Jazz vs. 4 Los Angeles Clippers:
Jazz win 4-3
It wouldn’t surprise me if the Clippers win this series, but
I think Utah is the worst possible matchup for this team. While some would argue that they can play
Rudy Gobert off the court, I truly don’t believe that this will happen. If they play Ivaca Zubac or Serge Ibaka at
center, I don’t believe either are good enough shooters to make Gobert avoid
the paint (Ibaka only attempted 2.8 per game and shot 33.9% while Zubac rarely
shot any). There is an argument to be
made that Marcus Morris or Nicolas Batum at center could torch them, but I have
two things I could counter: either they
can move Royce O’Neale to center and bring in Joe Ingles, or, if it isn’t
damaging them their defense much, keep attacking the paint. Gobert thriving would remove the paint for a
large part of the game; if that happens, do you really want to assume that O’Neale
and Mike Conley won’t be able to slow down one Clipper each? Further, the vast differences in the crowd
could also play a role, especially given the inconsistencies multiple Clippers
players have in the playoffs previously (not just Paul George). The Jazz have 6 players I trust to score any
given night, playoffs or not; while the Clippers have the two best players in
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George (if he plays like he has this season), I believe
the Jazz have 3-9 in my opinion. If they
can limit George a bit, the Jazz will be able to shut down the Clippers.
West 3 vs. 7: 3
Denver Nuggets vs. 7 Los Angeles Lakers:
Lakers win 4-2
If Jamal Murray were healthy, I believe the Nuggets would
win, but this is going to be difficult for them. Nikola Jokic is a superstar and Michael
Porter Jr. is great, but a healthy Lakers team will give them trouble. If the Lakers are not healthy, then forget
this prediction, but their defense will match up will against the Nuggets. While Jokic has improved immensely
defensively, it will be nasty to give them to give him the challenge to guard
some rotation of Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond, and Montrezl Harrell. On top of that, if they have Anthony Davis
play the 4 and a center in the lineup, this will expose Michael Porter Jr. In that case, I would have Aaron Gordon guarding
LeBron James and Jokic probably guarding Davis, but who do you put Porter
on? I wouldn’t trust him against either
James or Davis, but do you really want to try him guarding someone like
Drummond? Porter will be eaten alive
defensively and he has improved defensively.
On top of that, the Nuggets have other players other than Murray
injured; who knows what will happen with Will Barton and Monte Morris. As good as Denver’s offense has been at
points, I’m not sure their offense will top L.A.’s defense without Murray.
Conference
Finals:
East: 1
Philadelphia 76ers vs. 3 Milwaukee Bucks:
Bucks win 4-2
Both teams are top heavy which will make for some exciting
matchups and intriguing defensive assignments (will the 76ers put Ben Simmons
on Giannis Antetokounmpo at points, how will Jrue Holiday guard Simmons, the
idea of an Antetokounmpo-Joel Simmons matchup bringing excitement). I do believe that when the starting lineups
are in there will be some exciting physical and defensive matchups. Ultimately, this comes down to the role
players for me. Seth Curry has been a
quality player for the 76ers and Danny Green has been strong defensively (I
haven’t been particularly impressed with him offensively but beside that
point), but then the questions raise.
Furkan Korkmaz has been a good player for them, but he has averaged
fewer than 20 MPG. Shake Milton has looked
like the perfect 6th man at times, but he has also been
inconsistent. Dwight Howard is a good
player, but he is mainly there to backup Embiid. Matisse Thybulle has been solid defensively
but often lost offensively. George Hill
has been a little underwhelming since coming back from an injury, but he could
be useful for them. As for the Bucks,
Donte DiVincenzo has looked good in his role, Brook Lopez has slightly improved
his jumper while still focusing on the paint, Pat Connaughton has looked good
for them off the bench, Bobby Portis struggled defensively but thrived
offensively, P.J. Tucker has been good defensively, and Bryn Forbes can shoot
for anywhere. I trust many of Milwaukee’s
supporting cast more than Philadelphia’s on a consistent basis, so I think the
Bucks have the edge.
West: 1 Utah Jazz
vs. 7 Los Angeles Lakers: Jazz win 4-2
I know that the Lakers are the favorite in these matchups,
but there are factors that have me worried about predicting the Lakers
here. First off, how does LeBron James’
injury hold up with more games? He
looked better upon returning, but will more games played impact the injury in a
negative way? Even if healthy, the Lakers only shot 31.2 3’s
a game (24th in the NBA) while shooting 35.4% on them (21st). Even if playing Anthony Davis at center, he
isn’t a world-class shooter who will bring Rudy Gobert out of the paint (31.2
3P% for his career, 26.0% this season).
For a team that does a lot in the paint, how will guys like Dennis
Schroder, Montrezl Harrell, Talen Horton-Tucker, or Alex Caruso handle Gobert
next to the rim? On the other hand, the
Jazz attempted 43 a game while shooting 38.9% from 3; even when they miss, Rudy
Gobert led the league in total rebounds and was fourth in rebound percentage,
so it’s not easy to box him out. As for
their defense, I expect they will have Royce O’Neale on James (LeBron will
still have a great game, but it will make him work for it), Bojan Bogdanovic on
Davis (that might be bad), Rudy Gobert on whoever is playing center, and Mike
Conley on Dennis Schroder, which would take care of most of their top offensive
players. As far as limiting the Jazz, it
comes down to the 3: Donovan Mitchell
shot 38.6% from deep, Bogdanovic shot 39.0%, Conley shot 41.2%, O’Neale shot
38.5%, Joe Ingles shot 45.1%, and Georges Niang shot 42.5%. Will L.A. be able to stop a sharpshooting Jazz
team? I honestly don’t think they will
be able to.
Finals:
1 Utah Jazz vs. 3 Milwaukee Bucks: Jazz win 4-3
Now for the series that everyone is clearly predicting…just
kidding. I think this matchup will feature
some hard-nosed defense. In this case, I
would probably favor the Jazz, but both are elite defensively. For the Jazz, you have a strong team defense
as well as Rudy Gobert, Royce O’Neale, Mike Conley, Joe Ingles, Georges Niang,
and Derrick Favors, while the Bucks have Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, P.J.
Tucker, Brook Lopez, Donte DiVincenzo, and Pat Connaughton. I think both teams will match up incredibly
well from that end, but I think the Jazz are better at switches (despite
Milwaukee’s progress at that end).
Offensively, I think both teams will be tired by the end of this series
due to the hard paths each team has to take, so expect more 3’s, which will be
a slight edge to the Jazz; both are top 5 in percentage and both are top 10 in
attempts, but the Jazz have more rotation players who shoot above 36%. That said, expect several shots to go short
as their legs get tired, so you want strong rebounding…okay, I’ll consider this
a tie because I don’t know who will be better at rebounding between Rudy Gobert
and Giannis Antetokounmpo here.
Ultimately, I think the key for Milwaukee will be to limit Utah’s
shooting while the key for Utah is to limit Giannis Antetokounmpo’s impact in
the paint. I think neither will be easy,
but the Jazz have a task that is more doable in a 7-game series, which is how
long it will take for either team to come away with the win.
My prediction is the Jazz will beat the Bucks in 7. What do you think will happen in the
playoffs? Lett me know in the
comments! Enjoy the games!
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