2021 NBA Mock Draft Volume 3

This is my third and final Mock Draft of the 2021 NBA Draft.  This is a mock draft prior to the draft.  These selections are based on a combination where players are expected to be drafted, team needs, and some players who have been scouted by teams.  The draft order is according to Tankathon.

In this draft, I discussed what I think the best comparison is for each player in the draft.  I also discussed the new additions, those who dropped, biggest risers, biggest fallers, 20 who weren’t selected but are possible, the international players to watch, and several storylines I am watching.

I have changed my mindset of what this mock draft is meant to represent.  Previously, I made it to predict where everybody will be drafted.  While I feel good about picks 1-5, 9, 10, and 14, as well as decent about picks 6-8, I have no idea about any of the picks past that.  With this, the expectation that several teams will try to make moves with picks, and several players rising and falling rapidly, this draft (especially outside the lottery) will be more of a representation of where everybody is as of now.  This will change throughout the day and the draft, but I am using this as a representation compared to my previous draft about what might happen.  By stating this, I can feel better about myself if I get several picks wrong (I still will take credit if I get picks right though because of course I would).

 

 

Storylines to watch:

The Lottery

If there are no trades (more on that in a bit), a good portion of the lottery looks fairly set; I expect we will have Detroit taking Cade Cunningham 1st, Houston taking Jalen Green 2nd (they seem to favor him), Cleveland taking Evan Mobley 3rd (they seem to favor him), Toronto taking Jalen Suggs 4th, Orlando taking Scottie Barnes 5th (sounds like they love him), Oklahoma City either taking Jonathan Kuminga or James Bouknight 6th, Golden State taking the player with the most upside 7th (sounding like they favor Bouknight), Orlando taking either the player with the highest offensive upside remaining or Kuminga at 8th, Sacramento taking Franz Wagner 9th (they gave him a soft promise), Memphis taking Josh Giddey 10th (sounds like they’re obsessed with him), and Golden State taking an NBA ready talent 14th (while they brought in four to compete for that spot, Chris Duarte sounds like the frontrunner).  Outside of that, it’s a mystery.

Top Pick Trades

It isn’t sounding like Orlando or Golden State will try to use their picks to trade up, which leaves the question everyone is wondering:  will Oklahoma City try to?  This is why they acquired so many picks, but who agrees to it?  I wouldn’t put money on Detroit or Houston and Cleveland probably wouldn’t be as convinced.  Would Toronto do it?  I expect they would if they can get a third team involved to get an All-Star back, which brings up one question:  does Oklahoma City value Jalen Suggs enough to pull the trigger on this trade?

Jonathan Kuminga’s Late Fall

For a while, this draft was touted as having 5 elite players in it, then to 4 with Kuminga being the 5th, then to wondering if Kuminga would be a top 10 pick.  I have cooled off a bit on Kuminga because I don’t think he has as good a feel for the game now as I initially thought, but he’s athletic enough that I wouldn’t pass on him if I were a team like Oklahoma City drafting 6th.  That said, while I have him going 6th, OKC might draft James Bouknight instead (more on him shortly), which then depends on how much Golden State and Orlando want him.  There are teams wondering if they could get him in the early teens, so keep an eye on him.

James Bouknight’s Meteoric Rise

Bouknight had been steadily rising, but now is suddenly looking like a top 7 pick.  He started low after the tournament due to struggling with a shoulder injury, but he rose after thriving in the combine, workouts, and interviews.  It doesn’t sound like he’ll be a top 5 pick, but Oklahoma City seems to be debating between him and Jonathan Kuminga if they don’t trade the 6th pick.  If OKC takes Kuminga, it sounds like Golden State loves Bouknight and would take him 7th if he is available.  If they pass on him for whatever reason, I expect Orlando would take him 8th.

International Players

In a sudden twist in events, there were only 8 international players who declared for the draft (last year in Covid, there were 13).  Normally, teams will draft international players as draft-and-stash selections, where they own the rights to the players while they play overseas; last year, there were 8 international players selected (not including Justinian Jessup, who signed an international contract after college).  With only 8 (not counting Filip Petrusev, who left Gonzaga to play professionally), could all of them be drafted this year?  I have 6 being selected in my mock draft and another just missing out at 67; Biriam Faye is the longest shot, as I have him at 115.

Polarizing Prospects

There are several expected first round picks who seem to have teams obsessed with them or hate them.  While some of these players haven’t dropped much in the process (like Josh Giddey or Alperen Sengun), we are seeing several falling late, which isn’t surprising.  Keon Johnson (16), Jalen Johnson (18), Ziaire Williams (20), Cam Thomas (23), and Jaden Springer (29) are all ones who have fallen recently and could continue to fall.  While this isn’t surprising to see, there are multiple players who are willing playmakers (including Jalen Johnson and Springer) and most play hard on defense, but each are really raw and have questions about other skills (a popular one is shooting).

Fall Greg Brown and Daishon Nix

Two players I am watching intently are Brown and Nix.  Brown came in as a 5-star and arguably top-10 player entering college, but he showed he is a freak athlete but isn’t anywhere near NBA ready with skills.  Nix was also a 5-star recruit and arguably a top-15 or 20 player when joining the G-League, but didn’t show much outside of playmaking.  Neither helped out their case at the combine, as both did well in the physical aspects but struggled in the scrimmages.  I currently have Brown selected 46th and Nix 52nd, but I could see Brown falling into the mid-50’s and Nix going undrafted due to concerns about what their floor could be, despite potential All-Star ceilings.  The remind me of Nico Mannion in 2020, who was a 5-star recruit that struggled horribly in college and fell to 48th.

Jared Butler

While Butler was initially falling due to questions about if he would be eligible to play with a health issue, he has been cleared.  As such, I currently expect he will be drafted somewhere between late teens and late 20’s, with teams who are looking to compete likely favoring him as an NBA-ready prospect.

Rise of Freak Athletes

Normally, several players who are freak athletes and have skills tend to rise after the combine, but several are still rising now.  At the top of the draft, Jalen Green has shifted to 2nd and Scottie Barnes has snuck into the top 5 (though his was more based on being a beloved teammate and nailing the interviews).  Other incredible athletes that have been rising are Kai Jones (12), Joshua Primo (26), Nah’Shon Hyland (28), J.T. Thor (32), BJ Boston (36), Herbert Jones (40), Juhann Begarin (50), and Jericho Sims (54).  While other athletes have fallen, several of these are also skilled.

Rise of the Defenders

While shooting is a priority in most years (as it is this year), there are several highly touted players who aren’t renowned shooters but seem to be excellent defenders.  This starts with Scottie Barnes, who is now in the top-5 after Orlando is obsessed.  Other players that at least some teams are high that show strong defensive ability include on include Moses Moody (8), Kai Jones (12), Davion Mitchell (13), Keon Johnson (16), Usman Garuba (17), Trey Murphy (19), Ziaire Williams (20), Jared Butler (22), Miles McBride (27), and Jaden Springer (29).  Others who have shown ability include Franz Wagner (9), Chris Duarte (14), Corey Kispert (15), Isaiah Jackson (21), and Day’Ron Sharpe (30).  There are also players who will slip until the 2nd round who are strong defensively.



The Draft

1.       DET:  Cade Cunningham

a.       Oklahoma State, PG/SG, Freshman

b.       Comp:  Luka Doncic on sale; better defensively, but worse on offense

c.       Previous rank:  1

2.       HOU:  Jalen Green

a.       G-League Ignite, SG

b.       Comp:  Zach LaVine

c.       Previous rank:  3

3.       CLE:  Evan Mobley

a.       USC, PF/C, Freshman

b.       Comp:  Between skinnier Chris Bosh and more skilled Christian Wood

c.       Previous rank:  2

4.       TOR:  Jalen Suggs

a.       Gonzaga, PG, Freshman

b.       Comp:  Chauncy Billups with early career Jamal Murray’s jumper

c.       Previous rank:  4

5.       ORL:  Scottie Barnes

a.       Florida State, SF/PF, Freshman

b.       Comp:  Friendlier Draymond Green

c.       Previous rank:  6

6.       OKC:  Jonathan Kuminga

a.       G-League Ignite, SF/PF

b.       Comp:  Very raw Jaylen Brown

c.       Previous rank:  5

7.       GSW (from MIN):  James Bouknight

a.       UConn, SG, Sophomore

b.       Comp:  Jordan Clarkson with a touch of George Gervin in him

c.       Previous rank:  10

8.       ORL (from CHI):  Moses Moody

a.       Arkansas, SG, Freshman

b.       Comp:  OG Anunoby if he took a couple steps in on offense

c.       Previous rank:  13

9.       SAC:  Franz Wagner

a.       Michigan, SG/SF, Sophomore

b.       Comp:  Discount Gordon Hayward with less athleticism

c.       Previous rank:  9

10.   MEM (from NOP):  Josh Giddey

a.       Adelaide (Australia), PG

b.       Comp:  Raw Joe Ingles without the jumper

c.       Previous rank:  11

11.   CHO:  Alperen Sengun

a.       Besiktas (Turkey), C

b.       Comp:  Either worse shooting Domantas Sabonis or better passing Enes Kanter

c.       Previous rank:  11

12.   SAS:  Kai Jones

a.       Texas, C, Sophomore

b.       Comp:  Better shooting and more skilled JaVale McGee

c.       Previous rank:  16

13.   IND:  Davion Mitchell

a.       Baylor, PG, Junior

b.       Comp:  Fred VanVleet with Jrue Holiday defensive mindset

c.       Previous rank:  7

14.   GSW:  Chris Duarte

a.       Oregon, PG/SG, Senior

b.       Comp:  Bigger Payton Pritchard with a more consistent shot

c.       Previous rank:  19

15.   WAS:  Corey Kispert

a.       Gonzaga, SF, Senior

b.       Comp:  Bojan Bogdanovic

c.       Previous rank:  14

16.   OKC (from BOS):  Keon Johnson

a.       Tennessee, SG/SF, Freshman

b.       Comp:  Early career Kentavious Caldwell-Pope with Kyle Lowry intensity defensively

c.       Previous rank:  8

17.   NOP (from MEM):  Usman Garuba

d.       Real Madrid (Spain), PF/C

e.       Comp:  Al Horford with a raw offensive game and without the shooting stroke

f.        Previous rank:  17

18.   OKC (from MIA):  Jalen Johnson

a.       Duke, SF, Freshman

b.       Comp:  Miami Heat Justice Winslow with slightly worse decision making

c.       Previous rank:  15

19.   NYK:  Trey Murphy

a.       Virginia, SG/SF, Jr

b.       Comp:  More on-ball version of OG Anunoby or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

c.       Previous rank:  22

20.   ATL:  Ziaire Williams

a.       Stanford, SG/SF, Freshman

b.       Comp:  Somewhere between early career and current Brandon Ingram

c.       Previous rank:  18

21.   NYK (from DAL):  Isaiah Jackson

a.       Kentucky, C, Freshman

b.       Comp:  Somewhere between raw Nerlens Noel and very raw DeAndre Jordan

c.       Previous rank:  20

22.   LAL:  Jared Butler

a.       Baylor, PG/SG, Junior

b.       Comp:  Avery Bradley if he were more of a point guard

c.       Previous rank:  26

23.   HOU (from POR):  Cam Thomas

a.       LSU, PG, Freshman

b.       Comp:  Jamal Crawford with a more promising jumper

c.       Previous rank:  21

24.   HOU (from MIL):  Sharife Cooper

a.       Auburn, PG, Freshman

b.       Comp:  Bargain Rajon Rondo

c.       Previous rank:  23

25.   LAC:  Tre Mann

a.       Florida, PG, Sophomore

b.       Comp:  Better/smarter shooting D’Angelo Russell

c.       Previous rank:  27

26.   DEN:  Joshua Primo

a.       Alabama, SG, Freshman

b.       Comp:  De’Andre Hunter with a better jumper and with less playmaking ability

c.       Previous rank:  34

27.   BRK:  Miles McBride

a.       West Virginia, PG, Sophomore

b.       Comp:  Discount/smaller Jrue Holiday

c.       Previous rank:  28

28.   PHI:  Nah’Shon Hyland

a.       VCU, PG, Sophomore

b.       Comp:  Longer and better shooting Jamal Crawford

c.       Previous rank:  35

29.   PHO:  Jaden Springer

a.       Tennessee, SG, Freshman

b.       Comp:  More chaotic Avery Bradley

c.       Previous rank:  24

30.   UTA:  Day’Ron Sharpe

a.       UNC, C, Freshman

b.       Comp:  Robert Williams

c.       Previous rank:  30

31.   MIL (from HOU):  Ayo Dosunmu

a.       Illinois, PG/SG, Junior

b.       Comp:  Rich man’s Delon Wright

c.       Previous rank:  31

32.   NYK (from DET):  J.T. Thor

a.       Auburn, PF, Freshman

b.       Comp:  Al-Farouq Aminu

c.       Previous rank:  33

33.   ORL:  Josh Christopher

a.       Arizona State, SG, Freshman

b.       Comp:  Raw Jamal Crawford with inconsistent jumper but defensive upside

c.       Previous rank:  29

34.   NOP (from CLE):  Isaiah Todd

a.       G-League Ignite, PF

b.       Comp:  Michael Beasley’s body with Ryan Anderson’s playing style

c.       Previous rank:  42

35.   OKC:  Quentin Grimes

a.       Houston, SG, Junior

b.       Comp:  Danny Green

c.       Previous rank:  41

36.   OKC (from MIN):  B.J. Boston

a.       Kentucky, SG, Freshman

b.       Comp:  Young Brandon Ingram who shoots like DeMar DeRozan (but has the potential)

c.       Previous rank:  37

37.   DET (from TOR):  Joel Ayayi

a.       Gonzaga, PG/SG, Junior

b.       Comp:  More skilled Wesley Matthews

c.       Previous rank:  31

38.   NOP:  Jason Preston

a.       Ohio, PG, Junior

b.       Comp:  Early career Lonzo Ball with a better half-court game and worse shot creation

c.       Previous rank:  52

39.   SAC:  Charles Bassey

a.       Western Kentucky, C, Redshirt Sophomore

b.       Comp:  Richaun Holmes

c.       Previous rank:  38

40.   CHI:  Herbert Jones

a.       Alabama, SG/SF, Senior

b.       Comp:  Andre Roberson

c.       Previous rank:  45

41.   SAS:  Jeremiah Robinson-Earl

a.       Houston, SG, Junior

b.       Comp:  Grant Williams

c.       Previous rank:  39

 42.   DET (from CHA):  Rokas Jokubaitis

a.       Zalgiris Kaunas (Lithuania), PG

b.       Comp:  Tomas Satoransky

c.       Previous rank:  40

 43.   NOP (from WAS):  Greg Brown

a.       Texas, SF/PF, Freshman

b.       Comp:  Kelly Oubre at times, track star who’s never played basketball at other times

c.       Previous rank:  36

 44.   BRK (from IND):  Joe Wieskamp

a.       Iowa, SF, Junior

b.       Comp:  Something between Luke Kennard and Joe Harris

c.       Previous rank:  48

 45.   BOS:  Kessler Edwards

a.       Pepperdine, SF, Junior

b.       Comp:  Discount Robert Covington

c.       Previous rank:  46

 46.   TOR (from MEM):  Filip Petrusev

a.       Mega Bemax (Serbia), C

b.       Comp:  Skinny Greg Monroe with a jumper

c.       Previous rank:  43

 47.   TOR (from GSW):  Austin Reaves

a.       Oklahoma, SG, Redshirt Senior

b.       Comp:  On-ball Grayson Allen

c.       Previous rank:  50

 48.   ATL (from MIA):  Aaron Henry

a.       Michigan, SG/SF, Junior

b.       Comp:  More aggressive early career Justise Winslow

c.       Previous rank:  44

 49.   BRK (from ATL):  David Johnson

a.       Louisville, PG/SG, Sophomore

b.       Comp:  Early career Kentavious Caldwell-Pope with better playmaking

c.       Previous rank:  47

 50.   PHI (from NYK):  Juhann Begarin

a.       Paris (France), SG

b.       Comp:  Reckless and raw Cole Anthony in Lonnie Walker’s body

c.       Previous rank:  51

 51.   MEM (from POR):  Neemias Queta

a.       Utah State, C, Junior

b.       Comp:  Shorter Mark Eaton

c.       Previous rank:  55

 52.   DET (from LAL):  Daishon Nix

a.       G-League Ignite, PG

b.       Comp:  More reckless Rajon Rondo with less defensive ability

c.       Previous rank:  49

 53.   NOP (from DAL):  Isaiah Livers

a.       Michigan, SF/PF, Senior

b.       Comp:  Duncan Robinson

c.       Previous rank:  57

 54.   IND (from MIL):  Jericho Simms

a.       Texas, PF, Senior

b.       Comp:  Discount DeAndre Jordan

c.       Previous rank:  59

 55.   OKC (from DEN):  Vrenz Bleijenbergh

a.       Utah State, C, Junior

b.       Comp:  Less athletic Aleksej Pokusevski

c.       Previous rank:  Undrafted

 56.   CHO (from LAC):  RaiQuan Gray

a.       Florida State, PF, Redshirt Junior

b.       Comp:  Paul Millsap with Zion Williamson’s body (but not as athletic)

c.       Previous rank:  54

 57.   CHO (from BRK):  Luka Garza

a.       Iowa, C, Senior

b.       Comp:  Less athletic Enes Kanter with a jump shot

c.       Previous rank:  56

 58.   NYK (from PHI):  Aaron Wiggins

a.       Maryland, SG, Junior

b.       Comp:  Pat Connaughton

c.       Previous rank:  60

 59.   BRK (from PHO):  Matthew Hurt

a.       Duke, PF, Sophomore

b.       Comp:  Ryan Anderson on a good day, T.J. Leaf on others

c.       Previous rank:  58

 60.   IND (from UTA):  Sandro Mamukelashvili

a.       Seton Hall, PF, Senior

b.       Comp:  Discount Ben Simmons without the defense or the athleticism

c.       Previous rank:  Undrafted

 

Newly added

1.       Vrenz Bleijenbergh, Utah State (55)

Bleijenbergh’s playmaking ability as a big man has made him rise a bit in the draft, though he isn’t the best athlete.

2.       Sandro Mamukelashvili, Seton Hall (60)

Mamukelashvili is a great playmaker for his size, especially in the fast break, which makes him appealing, but his lack of athleticism, defense, and below average shooting will limit his draft night ceiling.

 

Newly removed

1.       Roko Prkacin, Cibona (Croatia) (previously 32)

Prkacin withdrew from the draft at the international withdrawal deadline.

2.       Ariel Hukporti, Nevėžis Kėdainiai (Lithuania) (previously 53)

Hukporti withdrew from the draft at the international withdrawal deadline.

 

Biggest risers

1.       Jason Preston, Ohio (38 to 52, up 14 spots)

2.       Joshua Primo, Alabama (34 to 26, up 8 spots)

3.       Isaiah Todd, G-League Ignite (42 to 34, up 8 spots)

4.       Nah’Shon Hyland, VCU (35 to 28, up 7 spots)

5.       Quentin Grimes, Houston (41 to 35, up 6 spots)

6.       Moses Moody, Arkansas (13 to 8, up 5 spots)

7.       Chris Duarte, Oregon (19 to 14, up 5 spots)

8.       Herbert Jones, Alabama (45 to 40, up 5 spots)

9.       Jericho Sims, Texas (59 to 54, up 5 spots)

 

Biggest fallers

1.       Keon Johnson, Tennessee (8 to 16, down 8 spots)

2.       Greg Brown, Texas (36 to 43, down 7 spots)

3.       Davion Mitchell, Baylor (7 to 13, down 6 spots)

4.       Ayo Dosunmu, Illinois (25 to 31, down 6 spots)

5.       Joel Ayayi, Gonzaga (31 to 37, down 6 spots)

6.       Jaden Spring, Tennessee (24 to 29, down 5 spots)

 

20 others to watch

These players are not selected according to this mock draft, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they are.

1.       Santi Aldama, Loyola (Maryland)

2.       A.J. Lawson, South Carolina

3.       Sam Hauser, Virginia

4.       David Duke, Providence

5.       Justin Champagnie, Pittsburgh

6.       Duane Washington, Ohio State

7.       Amar Sylla, Oostende (Belgium)

8.       McKinley Wright IV, Colorado

9.       Dalano Banton, Nebraska

10.   EJ Onu, Shawnee State (Ohio)

11.   DJ Steward, Duke (not to be mixed up with D. J. Stewart from Mississippi State)

12.   Moses Wright, Georgia Tech

13.   Jose Alvarado, Georgia Tech

14.   Chris Smith, UCLA

15.   Carlik Jones, Louisville

16.   Marcus Garrett, Kansas

17.   Yves Pons, Tennessee

18.   D.J. Carton, Marquette

19.   Chaundee Brown, Michigan

20.   D. J. Stewart, Mississippi State (not to be mixed up with DJ Stewart from Duke)

 

The international players

With so few international players in the draft, keep an eye on all 8 of them:

1.       Josh Giddey, Adelaide (Australia) (10)

2.       Alperen Sengun, Besiktas (Turkey) (11)

3.       Usman Garuba, Real Madrid (Spain) (17)

4.       Rokas Jokabaitis, Zalgiris (Lithuania) (42)

5.       Juhann Begarin, Paris (France) (50)

6.       Vrenz Bleijenbergh, Antwerp (Belgium) (55)

7.       Amar Sylla, Oostende (Belgium) (Undrafted)

8.       Biram Faye, Girona (Spain) (Undrafted)

Note:  While Filip Petrusev isn’t technically considered “international” in terms of the draft due to playing in college before playing internationally, expect teams to target him, especially if he agrees to be a draft-and-stash player.

 

 

What do you think about the Draft for this year?  Any surprises so far?  Any players you are excited for?  Let me know in the comments!

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