A Pair of Conundrums

The offseason always seems to result in questions and major decisions for teams whether it’s from the draft, free agency, trades, or extensions.  This year, while there have been rumors related to several superstars, there are two players who I think are fascinating:  Ben Simmons, whose trade rumors are been widely discussed, and Kyrie Irving, whose eligibility for a contract extension has been barely discussed.  In post, I discuss the conundrum related to each and what I think the right decision is.

 

Should the 76ers trade Ben Simmons?

Everyone seems to be saying that Simmons should have been traded long ago, but I think this situation should be treated more delicately, which is also the approach Darryl Morey appears to be taking.

I think the case for the Simmons/Joel Embiid pairing not working is something that shouldn’t be as clunky as it is at times if they had better shooters (it seemed to work better the year they had JJ Redick, Robert Covington, and Dario Saric).  That said, there are still some red flags.  Per nba.com, Ben Simmons averaged 0.73 points per possession (PPP) as the lead ball handler last season, which places him 23^rd percentile in that stat.  Even worse with that is that his turnover frequency (24.2%) super high, which is something I thought would be great for him; I think he struggles in the pick and roll due to teams playing so off him due to his lack of shooting.  I think he would be better in more of a Giannis Antetokounmpo role of being a lead ball handler in transition and being more of a screener/secondary ball handler in transition, but there seems to be one big issue there:  he seems to be too unselfish in transition.  His PPP in transition is also under the 30^th percentile, which is something he needs to change since he’s such a great athlete that he will be one of the first people up the court.  Still, I think it is doable to convince him to be more aggressive to a certain extent, but there’s a caveat to that.

In the playoffs, Simmons had a notable moment where he passed up a wide-open dunk to pass to Matisse Thybulle in the closing minutes of Game 7 against the Hawks.  While many have made fun and questioned his judgement (including myself for the latter), I think one thing is clear regarding why this happened:  he doesn’t have that kind of confidence in himself in these situations.  While he didn’t have many shots in the 4^th quarters of this series (or any point throughout the series), his clutch minutes were the same way; according to nba.com, he had fewer attempts per game in clutch minutes than Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, and Danny Green, while being tied with Seth Curry and Shake Milton.  In other words, this isn’t something that’s unusual from him, though he did score and shoot less against the Hawks than against the Wizards (9.9 PPG on 6.4 FGA vs. 14.8 PPG on 10 FGA); he also only shot 34.2% from the free throw line in the playoffs, which might have played a role in this lack of confidence.

I don’t think Philadelphia is the right place for him to rediscover this confidence.  Doc Rivers has already expressed his concerns publicly and Joel Embiid subtly implied his frustration regarding Simmons’ struggles.  He has already shown a lack of confidence in shooting anywhere outside the paint, and I think playing in a major market highlights his negative attributes (as somebody who deals with a lot of anxiety and doubting of myself, I feel so bad for him in that regard because he can do so much at an elite level, but nobody seems to talk about anything other than his lack of shooting).  I think being traded to a smaller market team would be a great place for him to improve on his game and encourage him to not worry as much about issues with his shot, especially if he’s surrounded by shooters (I love the idea of him somewhere like Portland, Indiana, or even San Antonio.  That said, Morey should continue to do what he’s done and not settle for less than a massive return for Simmons, especially considering his value. 

 

 

Should the Nets offer a max extension to Kyrie Irving?

This is a question where I consider the answer to be obvious, but the counterargument stems a different discussion that needs to be held.

The case against this extension is that he is injury prone and erratic.  The injury concern is legitimate:  he has only played at least 70 games in 3 seasons out of his 10, and the last time he missed fewer than 15 games in the regular season was 2016-17 (though he also has missed multiple playoff games/series).  That said, with the exception of last season, Kevin Durant and James Harden have been largely healthy throughout their careers, so it’s worth the risk that they will be better and that it was a fluke.  Now that Durant has another year back from his major injury, he probably will be able to play more.  Harden also wasn’t in his best shape coming into last season, so I’m guessing he’ll be in better shape and less likely to be injured this season.  If those two are healthy, you should be able to survive if Irving misses 20-25 games.  The bigger question is if he’ll be healthy in the playoffs though, since he has missed time in 4 of his 7 playoff series and 3 of his last 4 (though one of them was in the Bubble which he didn’t attend and wasn’t supportive of).

As for his behavior, there have been several issues that have emerged throughout his career, his most recent to draw controversy being his 7-game stretch of stepping away from basketball.  After much thought, I believe that we could learn a lesson from how everybody treated the player formerly known as Ron Artest and currently known as Metta Sandiford-Artest.  Artest had several notable controversies and eccentricities, but was also open about the fact that he had a therapist who came with him all the time due to his mental health issues.  In the wake of Jermaine O’Neal’s documentary about Malice at the Palace, I think people are starting to realize that Artest was not treated fairly considering what we’ve learned about mental health.  I have come to the conclusion that we are starting to do the same thing to Irving, which is totally unfair.  While there are things that he can handle better, I think there are certain things that we are too hard on him about and that we will look back and start to regret how cruel we have been to him.

The biggest case to extend him is how talented of a player he is.  In the last 5 seasons, he averaged 25.2 PPG, 6.0 APG, 4.2 RPG, 48.7 FG%, 40.2 3P%, 55.6 eFG%, 89.9 FT%, and just 2.5 TOV in 33.8 MPG.  He also had 37.4 WS, 5.8 BPM, 18.1 VORP, and 24.2 PER over that same span.  He’s an elite player who can thrive both on and off the ball, shoot at a high level, and rarely turns the ball over.  He’s also somebody who is consistently active with the community and in community service.  He is also someone who is popular among some fans (outside of Boston) and has his share of supporters in the NBA.  Basically, he’s an excellent player who has followers and isn’t unanimously hated; that’s absolutely valuable.

Ultimately, the reason I consider resigning him the most obvious reason is because the Nets would not have the salary cap room to sign another free agent with an even close to comparable talent level to Irving.  Irving is an elite guard and, even with question marks, is somebody I think the Nets could benefit from in the long term.  Ultimately, if owner Joe Tsai is willing to pay the luxury tax for several years (it’ll be a while), then extending Irving is a no-brainer.

 

What do you think about how these situations should be treated this offseason?  Let me know in the comments!