Players Who Have Impressed Me, Part 1

Every year, there are several players who have impressed or intrigued me for a variety of reasons.  This year, there have been several who aren’t stars who I have been interested in and would like to talk about.  I am breaking this up into 2 parts, the first discussing players above 25 and the second discussing players 25 and below.  I included 10 players and 5 honorable mentions, focusing on players who have not been All-Stars for a couple seasons.  All stats are according to Basketball Reference and are accurate prior to the games played on 11/28.

 

LaMarcus Aldridge, BRK

While the Nets have been a storyline for players not playing or struggling, something has to be said about how well Aldridge has played in a supporting role.  He has averaged 13.8 PPG in 22.1 MPG and averaged a career-high 58.0% from the field, largely due to his 60.9 2P%.  While it would be intuitive to think he is attempting more field goals at the rim to reach his career high from inside the arc, but actually most of his shots are coming from mid-range, with his most attempted range being from 16 feet-3 point, where 29.0% of his attempts are.  The breakdown of his attempts for 0-3/3-10/10-16/16-3P are 16.6%/18.1%/23.8%/29.0%/12.4%, whereas the percentages of each are 75.0%/54.3%/58.7%/58.9%/37.5%, resulting in points per attempt from each location of 1.5/1.068/1.174/1.178/1.125.  While some would say he should attempt more 3’s if he’s already shooting that many mid-range shots, his points per attempt suggests he should attempt more mid-range shots than 3’s, though that might just be a sample size.  While I would suggest he attempt more shots closer to the rim, it is exciting to see him thrive in his role for Brooklyn, especially after looking like he would have to retire for medical reasons.

 

Grayson Allen, MIL

While I thought Allen would be the perfect fit in Milwaukee once they acquired him, he has been better than I expected.  I figured his main purpose would be to space the floor and play off the ball.  So far, he has shot 42.2% from 3 on 7.7 attempts per game, leading to a 59.9 eFG% and 14.2 PPG (all career highs).  He has focused on 3’s (72.3% of his field goals are from deep), which makes sense given the Bucks stars (especially Giannis Antetokounmpo) tend to thrive when not being stuck behind the arc, though the reason I think this is best is that he is averaging 1.226 points per attempt from behind the arc, which is substantially higher than anywhere inside the arc.  He is also shooting a whopping 64.3% from the corner and is barely turning the ball over, with 0.7 TOV and a 5.4 TOV% compared to 18.0 USG%.  The biggest thing I would like to see him improve on is defense, as he is still a net negative on that end despite being a good athlete (-1.4 DBPM); I wonder if the rest of the team becoming healthier would allow him to guard one of the weaker offensive players, helping his value on that end.  Still, his shooting ability should make him valuable for the remainder of this season.

Harrison Barnes, SAC

Now we get to the player who inspired this entire post, since Barnes has been a rare bright spot for Sacramento this season.  He is averaging 19.0 PPG, which is his highest since 2016-17 (his first year after leaving Golden State), but there is a major difference since then:  he has become a much more efficient scorer since.  His eFG% was 49.2% that season and is 55.9% this season.  The reason for this massive rise is because of his shot distribution; 45.9% of his attempts in 2016-17 were from the mid-range and 17.3% were from 3 whereas just 2.1% have been from mid-range this year and 40.4% are from 3.  While some complain that it’s ridiculous to eliminate the mid-range game from basketball, the reason it makes more sense for Barnes is because he has historically averaged substantially more points per attempt from 3 (1.131) than from 10-16 feet (0.72) or 16 FT-3P (.794).  There are some red flags:  he has turned the ball over more frequently than ever (2.1 TOV and 12.1 TOV% are among the worst of his career) and his last 8 games have been rough (14.1 PPG, 29.2 3P%, and -6.6 +/- after 22.5/43.5%/-1.1 in his first 11); I’m hoping that an injury he has been nursing has caused the slump, since I’ve been intrigued by him this year.

 

Al Horford, BOS

It makes little sense to be impressed by what Horford has done if you look solely at some offensive numbers this year, but there’s a few things to keep in mind here.  First, I had no idea what a 35-year-old Horford would provide after looking out of place in Philadelphia and then with Oklahoma City resorting to not playing him by the end of the season in their tank job.  Second, a big part of his game was defense, which doesn’t typically age well.  That said, Horford has looked much younger than his age, especially on the defensive end, where he is averaging career highs with 1.7 BPM and 2.1 DBPM, as well as putting up 8.2 RPG (his highest since 2013-14) and 12 dunks (already surpassing last season’s number in 11 fewer games and halfway to his 2019-20 numbers in 50 fewer games).  The big red flag in his game has been shooting; he is shooting just 29.2% from 3 (his lowest while attempting more than 0.1 a game), which is especially concerning since 41.9% of his attempts have been from there (only trailing last season’s 42.2%, when he played just 28 games).  His field goal percent has been saved by shooting 88.2% within 3 feet of the rim, but he has only attempted 19.8% of his attempts there.  While his shot selection has been a bit surprising, just watching him play shows he is playing closer to the Al Horford in his initial Celtics run than that of Philadelphia of OKC.

Kyle Kuzma, WAS

There have been several players who have impressed thus far for the Wizards in their surprising start, but Kuzma has impressed me quite a bit.  The biggest reason I have been a bit blown away by him is his improved rebounding.  He is averaging career highs in RPG (9.2) and TRB% (15.0%), around than 3 higher than his previous in each.  The biggest reason he has been able to exceed his career highs with ease is due to his rebounding on the defensive end, as he has 8.2 DRB (his career high is 5.1) and 25.3 DRB% (previous career high was 17.7% last season).  He is also now a net positive on defense for the first time in his career, with a 0.2 DBPM.  The biggest red flag to me is that his 2P% has dropped to a career low 49.1%, but this can be explained by his shot selection within 10 feet, as he went from 24.0% of his field goals being from 0-3 feet and 12.4% being from 3-10 feet last year to 13.2% and 22.6% respectively this year.  If he can revert back to what he did last season, that would be beneficial to him and the team, as he is shooting 80.6% from 0-3 and 37.7% from 3-10.

 

Georges Niang, PHI

Philadelphia’s season has really shown how essential a deep bench can be, and I believe Niang is one of the players who represents the epitome of this.  In his first season with the team, he has averaged career highs in MPG (25.5), resulting in highs in PPG/RPG/APG (11.4/2.8/1.8).  While his shooting numbers have dropped a bit, he is still shooting 39.3% from deep and has a 55.1% for eFG%.  One thing I find interesting is that he is shooting more 2’s than he has in the last couple years, which I don’t mind since most are within 10 feet of the rim and he is shooting 73.9% within 3 feet of the rim, though he is attempting more from the 3-10 feet range and is only shooting 46.2% from that range.  I think the shift in this is due to the increase in role he has been forced to take on with the injuries/illnesses the team has dealt with.  One thing to note is that in the 12-game stretch between his first game with at least 30 minutes and his last, he averaged 13.3 PPG but only shot 36.4% from deep in 29.5 MPG (he shot 46.4% in 17.9 MPG in the 6 games prior to this run).  He is best suited as a stretch-4 off the bench, but he showed he could still contribute in a bigger role in stints if desperate.

 

Cedi Osman, CLE

While Cleveland got off to a better start than I expected, one of the biggest surprises was Osman going from a minus on both ends who was largely untradeable to playing like a perfect 3-and-D player this year.  He is shooting a career-high 43.0% from deep while attempting 5.9 3’s per game and is also shooting 55.3% from 2’s in limited attempts, resulting in a career high 61.6% eFG%.  He has largely changed his shot attempts, so he has shot almost exclusively from behind the arc or from within 3 feet (where he is shooting 70.4%), which is good for him since that is where he is maximizing his points per attempt and where the offense seems to be at its best.  I’m not sure what is resulting in this massive jump from 3; he is shooting a few more 3’s of the dribble than before rather than off the pass (though I don’t think this is making a big difference) and is shooting 50% from the corners (though doesn’t shoot a ton from there), though I don’t think either of these are what’s doing it.  I think he’s currently in a hot stretch, so I hope he continues to remain in it, despite shooting 34.7% for his career going into this season.  As for defense, he has a 0.6 DBPM and 0.4 DWS (which is already his 3^rd highest total for his career in just 17 games).  I think this has been a combination of looking comfortable playing alongside stronger defenders, being excited to win, and just buying into defense more than he ever has.  His transformation has been fun to see for him, since I thought he could be a quality wing player.

 

Kelly Oubre Jr., CHO

I’ve been a fan of Oubre for several years, but I am surprised by his season this year, which might not make sense considering his numbers seem to be similar.  How is it that I can be impressed with someone whose scoring dropped from last season (when it was already an off year?  In terms of statistics, he has career highs in 3P% (37.0%) and 2P% (53.0%), resulting in a huge career high with 54.4% eFG%.  His increase in 3P% has also resulted in him taking a career high in attempts from deep (7.0) and shooting from the average furthest distance of his career (16.5 feet).  I think the biggest reason for this change is due to him feeling more comfortable in the Hornets style of play than that of the Warriors, considering he is playing similarly in terms of on the ball and off the ball; I also think he clicks more with LaMelo Ball and Stephen Curry with his playing style.  I wouldn’t put money on him shooting this well throughout the entire season considering he is a career 33.0% from deep, but Ball’s passing ability should give him opportunities in fast breaks and at the rim.

Gary Payton II, GSW

Payton has always been an elite defender (not too surprising given his name), but has always struggled with consistency offensively (which is a little surprising given his name); while he has been a decent finisher in 71 games prior to this year (53.1% from 2), he has struggled from deep (26.7%) and the line (50.0%) while not operating on the ball a lot (15.0 AST%) while only being 6’3, limiting his playing time to 11.4 MPG.  This year, he is still only playing 14.2 MPG (though on a Warriors team that has several players who have received minutes), but his offensive game has seemingly improved, as he is averaging career highs with 6.4 PPG and 42.9 3P%.  What might be causing this?  Playing alongside a superstar in Steph Curry and an elite passer in Draymond Green, as well as players who have taken on more of the offensive load in Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole, certainly doesn’t hurt, though I think a big focus should be placed on his shot selection.  While he is shooting well from deep, he is also shooting 83.7% from 2, where he is also taking 67.2% of his attempts (almost all of which have been within 10 feet of the rim).  I think this is important since he has been a streaky shooter and is only shooting 63.0% from the line, so there is reason to believe these numbers aren’t a trend.  That said, even if he struggles offensively, his defense has been so elite (4.3 DBPM and 4.5 STL%) that he has earned a spot in this rotation.

Dwight Powell, DAL

Powell’s presence on this list is likely the biggest surprise considering his struggles, especially at the defensive end this season, but I have been more blown away by something looking at his numbers than I have been actually watching him play.  He has always had a high eFG% (this season with one of 61.8%), and a big part of that has been almost exclusively shooting within 3 feet of the rim (and often dunking).  This season, he is shooting 40.0% from 3 (easily a career-high), to go along with his 65.2% from the 0-3 feet range (which is a bit lower than usual, but I think a big part of that is playing a lot with Kristaps Porzingis) and 53.3% from 3-10 feet.  This season, he has attempted 60.5% of his shots from 0-3 feet, 19.7% from 3-10, and 19.7 from 3 points range, which is close to maximizing his points per attempt (his points per attempt are 1.304 from 0-3, 1.066 from 3-10, and 1.2 from behind the arc).  He hasn’t attempted any midrange (largely due to team construction), but he has struggled from that range, so I think this is right for him.  I’ve just been fascinated to see this from him and find it so cool, especially since it is less common than I’d expect.

 

Honorable Mentions

1.       Andre Drummond, PHI:  For how seamlessly the transition to backup center was for him.

2.       Taj Gibson, NYK:  For the defensive intensity and ability he has played at despite being 36.

3.       Reggie Jackson, LAC:  For how he has kept his offensive level from the playoffs.

4.       Ricky Rubio, CLE:  For how he has been more aggressive offensively and better at shooting.

5.       Dennis Schroder, BOS:  For how he has been one of Boston’s most consistent scorers.

Who are some players who you have been impressed with this year?  Let me know in the comments!