What is Wrong with the Boston Celtics?
Every year, there are several teams that do not meet the expectations set prior to the season. While there are several teams that fall into that realm, most notably the Atlanta Hawks, the team nearest and dearest to my heart is the Boston Celtics. I had them finishing 3rd since I thought they would be in the 3-6 range but had the highest floor out of all of them due to their defense. So far, their defense has been near the top of the league, their offense has been near the bottom, and they have stumbled their way to a 23-23 record prior to their game against the Trail Blazers on 1/21. While there are a lot of reasons fans and experts point to, I will rank and discuss the most glaring ones below. As a bonus, I also will discuss a team that has been impressive this season. All stats are courtesy of basketball-reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Their
minute distribution has been poor
I think the inconsistent minutes distribution is the biggest
issue with this team. While I thought prior
to the season that the team’s greatest strength was their depth and that there
were 14 players who could contribute 10 minutes per game on a consistent basis
(the 15th player, Bruno Fernando, was someone who I thought had the
potential to by the end of the year). Off
the bat, coach Ime Udoka played a limited roster as players who played well in
Summer League and last season such as Payton Pritchard and Aaron Nesmith
totally fell out of the rotation. There
have been several occasions where he has played starters more than 40 minutes
unnecessarily and it has impacted their shooting and defensive impact at
times. In particular, they have played 6
overtime games and are 1-5 in the games immediately following those games, with
the most glaring being the game where they blew a huge lead against the Bulls due
to all their shots clanking off the front rim (a sign of exhaustion). The most glaring impact is how poor several
starters have shot; Jayson Tatum is averaging a career high in minutes (36.7
MPG) while struggling from the field, shooting career lows with 41.5 FG% and
31.7 3P% (as a note, he also played 38.1 MPG in the first 8 games of the season
and shot just 38.3% from the field and 26.2% from 3). There have also been struggles from Marcus
Smart (career high 34.1 MPG, but shooting 30.4% from 3, his lowest since
2017-18) and Al Horford (whose 1075 minutes have already surpassed his total
from last year’s 782, but he’s shooting just 29.0% from 3, a career low in a
season where he attempted more than 5 total); even Jaylen Brown, one of the
most reliable scorers on this team, has experienced a slight dip, dropping from
48.4 FG% and 39.7 3P% last season to 45.9% and 36.0% this season. While the minute load has improved as the
season has gone on (I think Udoka’s hand was pushed a bit to trust more players
due to a Covid outbreak), he still has glimpses where he seems oblivious about
how tired his players are. The most prevalent
example was when Pritchard played over 44 minutes on December 27th
against the Timberwolves (his previous season high was around 30) and went 1-7
from 3 in the second half while playing every minute in the half and
front-rimming multiple attempts, after going 4-7 in the first half. While most of their lead playmakers were out,
I thought they could have survived by giving Pritchard 4-5 minutes off by
having a platoon of Jaylen Brown and Al Horford running the possessions, but
this feels like one example of plays that have cost the teams wins.
They need
to improve on their playmaking
While I’m torn between a couple of reasons being bigger than
the playmaking, playmaking is the reason everybody cites and there is a
point. The team is currently 22nd
in the league with 22.7 APG and is 23rd in percent of field goals
assisted (58.2%). They have played a
substantial amount of isolation ball, ranking 6th in possessions per
game, but have ranked 16th in EFG% with 44.3%; this style of play
has also contributed to their slow pace of play (96.4 possessions per 48
minutes, 25th in the NBA) and has contributed to turning the ball
over more than their opponents (14.2 per game vs. 14.1), all per NBA.com. None of their 5 leaders in assists are cut
out for the role of lead playmaker, as Marcus Smart (5.3 APG) doesn’t always
have the best judgement of plays, Dennis Schroder (4.7) tends to be more
aggressive with his shot, Jayson Tatum (3.7) is much more of a creator for
himself, Al Horford (3.6) is a center who is probably at his best off the ball,
and Jaylen Brown (3.0) often plays with tunnel vision with the ball and currently
has as many turnovers as assists (a number that was mainly helped by having 33
assists and 17 turnovers over his last 7 games). Prior to the season I thought that Smart had
improved enough to be the lead playmaker, Tatum or Brown would make a jump
(most likely Tatum), and Horford or Payton Pritchard could be used if needed, but
neither Tatum nor Brown have made as much of a jump as I expected, I misjudged Smart,
and Pritchard has never played. If they
can acquire a point guard who can help with their playmaking, it would help
this offense (I even have wondered if giving up Jaylen Brown for Ben Simmons
would be wise, and I’m starting to come around on it).
They are
horrible at shooting and have bad shot selection
While part of this is predicated on their lack of playmaking
and emphasis on isolation basketball, they still have not made good decisions
with shots. They are currently shooting
33.8% from 3 (23rd in the league), but are still attempting 35.9
attempts (13th), making up for 41% of their field goals (14th). Jayson Tatum has shot almost 100 attempts
more than anyone else on the team (344), but is shooting just 31.7% (though he
has improved recently). They have 8
players who have attempted at least 100 3’s, and there are more that are
shooting under 32% (Tatum, Marcus Smart, and Al Horford) than are shooting above
40% (Grant Williams, Josh Richardson), and all three of Tatum, Smart, and
Horford have at least 16 more attempts than Williams. Further, they are 2nd in FT%
(81.8%), but are going to the line 21 times a game (15th), have
0.196 FT/FGA (8th), and have attempted 2’s (where fouls are more
likely) on 59% of their shots (17th). When not taking a 3, I think part of this is
due to several players taking midrange shots where they aren’t as efficient;
the biggest culprits of these kind of shots are Tatum, Dennis Schroder, Josh
Richardson, and (to a lesser extent) Jaylen Brown. Further, several players have settled for the
3-10 feet range over the 0-3 feet range (which is typically a better shot),
including Marcus Smart, Brown (who goes from elite in the 0-3 range to below
average in the 3-10), Schroder, Richardson, Williams, and Horford. Their best shots tend to occur when the ball
is moving and their driving into the hoop, but the Celtics often seem to
actively avoid playing this manner and ultimately cost themselves victories.
Several
players appear to be playing for their own stats
This one isn’t something I can use data to back up, because even
creating assists can become a greedy statistic in a certain way. This could be a case of players just playing
isolation basketball, but I have difficulty justifying this when teams obviously
realize on the final shot of a game they can double or triple team Jayson Tatum
and feel 99.999% certain that he will not pass the ball to anybody. At different points, I feel like Tatum, Jaylen
Brown, Dennis Schroder, and at times Josh Richardson and Marcus Smart appear to
care about putting up their own numbers on offense by taking stupid shots while
ignoring their teammates for a better play.
While Tatum and Brown likely get the bulk of the blame for this, I have
heard some reporters discuss that Schroder’s play this year has not warranted a
big contract in several front offices’ minds, something I think is a result of
this.
Ime Udoka
has lost the team
I had fears about this within a few games and I’m not
totally convinced they have gone away. During
the preseason Udoka benched Grant Williams in one game because he complained
about a call rather than running back on defense, saying that the players not
to worry about arguing since he would.
Since then, he has allowed several players to argue anytime they desire,
most notably allowing Jayson Tatum to argue on any given call while jogging
back on defense, giving way for more fast break points. Additionally, Udoka hasn’t held true with his
promise to argue, rarely saying anything to the refs for the majority of the
season and infrequently asking for explanations (he has done it a little more,
but still is more infrequent than how his comments would suggest). As such, Marcus Smart has picked up multiple
technical from the bench that could have been avoided had the coach held true
to his word. Further, Udoka said that
the team would emphasize playmaking more than they did last year; technically
this is true, but as mentioned before, their playmaking is atrocious and their
continued emphasize on isolation ball is likely not what he had in mind. Even when he calls out the team, they cannot
consistently play in this style for a week, let alone a single game. I wouldn’t be shocked if he doesn’t make it
through the season at this rate.
They are
awful in the 4th quarter
While they have made headlines for falling apart at the end
of games multiple times, but their 4th quarter stats (according to
NBA.com) for the season are glaring. They have the 4th worst net rating with
-5.5 (that number has improved over the last few weeks, which really shows how
terrible they were to start the season).
While their offensive totals haven’t been great (their 106.8 offensive
rating is 20th in the NBA and 49.4 eFG% is 25th), their
defensive rating is 112.3 (which is 25th in the league and a far cry
from their 107.8 overall, which ranks 5th). Part of this comes down to the fact that
their defended FG% (45.7%, 22nd) is higher than their overall allowed
FG% (45.4%, 21st), but that is still pretty bad. I think part of that is that the Celtics deal
with exhaustion, but I think there is something to be said about play calling
from the coaching and the players making the right decisions on the court.
Jayson
Tatum and Jaylen Brown are not the right winning combination
Of course, many are saying this is the biggest issue, despite
the fact that we saw them lead the Celtics to a couple of Eastern Conference
Finals appearances, though they had a good point guard in those runs. Something I was concerned about last year was
their habits to seemingly try for their own shots rather than look for the best
shot on offense, leading me to compare them to Paul Pierce and Antoine Walker
(a combo that put up amazing numbers but never led the Celtics to a
championship while together). As we see
the same kind of trends this season, I think the most appropriate question is
how long we should wait before either of them adjusts? Both Pierce and Walker largely didn’t play a
sort of winning basketball until they each one a championship. Walker won his championship in 2006 as a role
player with Miami and Pierce won his as one of 3 stars in Boston in 2008…both
10 years after they were drafted. While
it might not be fair to expect the same trends from each player, it is worth
noting that Brown was drafted in 2016 and Tatum in 2017, so I’m not too
optimistic about change coming soon.
Some other notes:
· It is expected that the Celtics will be active at the trade deadline, but I’m not sure what they would get that would help them. It’s sounding like Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Robert Williams are all of the table, but can they get a playmaker who can help the team with what’s remaining? I’m not sure who’s on the table and wouldn’t result in overpaying.
· Considering how the team has been playing, at most 1 Celtic will make it to the All-Star Game, and I expect that will be Tatum. Brown has a bonus in his contract for making the All-Star Game, so if he doesn’t make it, might he look for his own shots rather than what’s in the flow of the offense even more?
· Dennis Schroder feels likely to be traded at this point and Josh Richardson feels likely to be traded as well. Both are players who have joined the exclusive club of cracking Ime Udoka’s minutes, something that seems to be harder than it should be. Will any players they get in return be able to crack the rotation? I’m not sure he and Brad Stevens are always on the same page in terms of roster constructions.
· A lot of people have said that they can be good team if they just pass better, shoot better, or play faster (among other notes). The catch with that is that they are inconsistent at just about everything offensively, often being unable to even keep their habits steady for a whole quarter. I’m not certain that we can expect them to improve their consistency.
· While their defense has been good overall, I worry if their effort will drop as their results continue being the epitome of mediocre. This could result in a major slump.
Bonus: What is Going
Right for the Cleveland Cavaliers?
As disappointed as I am with the Celtics this season, there
are teams performing better than expected, which is something I am almost
always excited about for those teams. While
there are several teams I predicted would be better than the Cavs and have
outperformed my expectations, I have especially been surprised about the
Cavs. I predicted the Cavs would finish
13th and had them in a tier by themselves as a team that isn’t
competitive but thought they were; instead, they are 27-19 and in 6th prior to their game on 1/22. Here are several reasons I think
they are performing as well as they are.
Multiple
young players coming into their own
There are several players under the age of 30 who have made
a huge jump this season. The most
notable is Jarrett Allen, who is playing at a potential All-Star level on both
ends, putting up career numbers in PPG (16.3), 2P% (70.8), eFG% (69.7%), FG% (69.5%),
RPG (10.9), BPM (4.4), OBPM (2.8), DPBM (1.6), and VORP (2.1). Darius Garland is also getting some All-Star
consideration and has improved as their point guard, with career highs in PPG
(19.8), APG (8.0), RPG (3.4), SPG (1.3), 2P% (54.8%), eFG% (54.8%), BPM (2.6),
OBPM (3.1), DBPM (-0.4), WS (3.8), and VORP (1.6). While Isaac Okoro showed some glimpses of
what he could be as a rookie last year, he has improved as a finisher and
defender this year, with improved numbers in 2P% (54.8%), eFG% (51.1%), and
DBPM (0.6). While Lauri Markkanen’s
offensive numbers have taken a little bit of a dip due to his decreased role,
he has starting in lineups that also include Allen and Evan Mobley (giving them
3 big men on the court), forcing Markkanen to play the 3, and his defense has
been better than ever, with a career high 0.3 DBPM (as well as a career high in
BPM with 0.4). Last year, Cedi Osman was
an unreliable shooter (though he had been a good one in the past) who you didn’t
want playing defense; this year, he has become a reliable 3-and-D guy who might
be their best wing defender, as he’s shooting 36.3% from deep and has a career
high 1.3 DBPM and 1.1 DWS. With so many young
key players improving, it’s no wonder they have improved substantially.
Evan
Mobley impressing as a rookie
When Mobley was drafted by the Cavs, I thought it was a good
selection since I thought he had the highest upside out of everybody remaining in
the draft, though I thought he had the lowest floor out of the top-5 and feared
he would struggle as a rookie due to his size and inconsistent shooting
stroke. I think it’s safe to say that I
was wrong, as he has looked possibly the most NBA ready out of a really
talented draft class. He has put up 15.0
PPG, 51.1% FG%, 53.9% 2P% (thanks in large part to his 75.5% clip within 3 feet
of the rim), 7.8 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.7 BPG, 0.8 SPG, 1.9 DBPM, and 1.1 VORP. He has still struggled from 3 (29.6%), but he
has thrived in his role so far. I think
a big part of his ability to thrive on defense stems from having Jarrett Allen
alongside him, a move I think was intended to cover up his weaknesses but has
instead allowed them to challenge and elevate each other. I wasn’t sure they won the draft at the time,
but they’re making a solid case for it so far.
Their
defense improving drastically
Last season, the Cavs had a defensive rating of 114.4 (25th
in the NBA), but this year it has improved to 106.2 (3rd). How did they pull that off? From a statistical standpoint, opponents are
shooting just 50.5% from 2 (5th), 34.2% from 3 (9th), and
have an eFG% of 50.8% (5th).
From a personnel standpoint, the two most obvious contributors are
Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, who have DBPM of 1.6 and 1.9 respectively,
though Cedi Osman (1.3), Ricky Rubio (1.2), Isaac Okoro (0.6), Kevin Love (0.5),
Lauri Markkanen (0.3), Dean Wade (1.0), and Lamar Stevens (0.5) have all played
at least 15 MPG and have a positive DBPM.
While this isn’t the perfect defensive stat, I think the biggest thing
is that the entire team has bought in on the defensive end, which will be key
for them to be competitive.
Everyone
is embracing their role
This might sound like common sense, but in order for a team
to be successful, everybody has to understand their role and play to their best
ability in it. While he is still one of
the best scorers on the team (this year leading the team with 19.8 PPG), Darius
Garland has also improved at distributing this year, leading the team with 8.0
APG (which is incredible considering he was a score first guard when he entered
the league). Jarrett Allen has been a
strong finisher at the rim and the defensive cog, while Evan Mobley has
embraced the task of being a second or third banana on both ends while playing
hard on defense. Lauri Markkanen has accepted
a supporting role that involves him playing harder at the defensive end while
often guarding players smaller (and faster) than him on the perimeter. Isaac Okoro has willingly taken on the role
of putting all his effort onto the defense end and often not having the ball in
his hands on offense. Cedi Osman
recognized the importance of defense and has become probably their most important
3-and-D player. Prior to his injury,
Ricky Rubio embraced the role of getting his teammates in the right positions
and their best shot while also working hard on defense (I think they hope that
the newly acquired Rajon Rondo slides into this role). Kevin Love has played harder than ever on
defense while being one of the top bench scorers on the team. Even Dean Wade and Lamar Stevens have
contributed in minor ways offensively but played hard on the other end,
resulting in them being plus defenders.
This kind of situation where everyone gladly does what the team needs is
terrifying for the rest of the league and often helps any situation.
Ricky
Rubio is a player who can get the best out of others
When I was excited about the trade for Rubio since I thought
it would help Darius Garland (and maybe Collin Sexton) improve as playmakers,
but he has played a much bigger impact than I anticipated. He has largely played off the bench and he
has been a large part of why other bench has played better. He has 13.1 PPG, 6.6 APG, 1.4 SPG, and is
shooting 33.9% from 3 in 28.5 MPG. His
1.2 DBPM is his highest since 2017-18 and his impact is evident in the energy
on both ends and how Garland has improved his playmaking and decision making on
the court. The biggest catch with this is
that Rubio is out for the season with a torn ACL; they acquired Rajon Rondo,
but I’m not sure he will have quite the same impact as Rubio has.
Kevin
Love has bought in
Something that seemed impossible after LeBron James left was
that Love would be excited to play in Cleveland, and he certainly hasn’t been
due to several issues on the court.
However, this season has been totally different. Sure, we could point to his 14.0 PPG, 40.3%
3P% (highest since 2017-18), 0.5 DBPM (highest since 2013-14), and 6.9 BPM (highest
since 2013-14). I think the clearer
indicator is that he looks happy and is cheering on his teammates; this is a
far cry from how he had acted the last few seasons. It’s clear that he wanted to win, and he was
willing to move to the bench and thrive in that role to make it happen.
Collin
Sexton isn’t starting anymore due to injury
I hate saying that the reason a team has been playing better
is because a player is injured, and in an alternative universe, it wouldn’t
have taken this. All I’m saying by this
is that I believe the team is more effective with Sexton not in the starting
lineup. While he has a torn meniscus and
is expected to be out for the season, I believe that Sexton is more suited for
a 6th man type role like Lou Williams. While he has put up a lot of points (20.0 PPG
for his career), Sexton is not a good defender or passer, which suggests that
he probably would be better in the role where he is tasked with scoring buckets
off the bench. In fact, he actually is
the same height as Williams (6’1), is around the same level as a free throw
shooter, is a crumby defender as well, and as almost identical assist numbers;
the biggest differences is that Sexton is 15 pounds heavier, is stronger, is a slightly
better shooter, and might be a slightly better athlete. While the combo of Sexton and Kevin Love
never worked over the last 3 seasons, I think that a Cleveland bench that
features Sexton would be the best option going forward.
Some other notes:
· Ricky Rubio’s injury could be a huge issue in the playoffs, but I think Sexton’s injury cannot be overlooked either. While I don’t think he should be in the starting lineup for a competitive team, he has value in his aggressiveness in scoring, ability to finish, and potential to shoot well.
· Every team will typically deal with their share of adversity, something that a younger team often has difficulty with. I worry how they will play during this stretch without Ricky Rubio able to help; can Kevin Love step into the leadership role in that case?
· I keep hearing them being included in trade talks, though I’m not sure who would be included in a deal. Evan Mobley is definitively off the table, and I expect Darius Garland will be too. If Jarrett Allen is named an All-Star, would he be off the table? He really provides a large value in his role which will be tough to replicate. Who else could be included?
· They traded for Rajon Rondo, which I assume was a way to replace Rubio. How much will he do in the regular season? He has dogged it for a few years in the regular season and ramped it up in the playoffs, but their injuries might require him to be used more in the regular season than ever before.
· Based on how they’re playing so far, I wouldn’t want to face them in the playoffs. That said, how will all the younger players hold up in the playoffs? Will Isaac Okoro be exposed offensively? Will they wind up with a matchup that is brutal for Mobley? How all the role players play in their roles? I wouldn’t be too worried about them since they understand their role and have played to their best abilities, which is a testament to how perfect of a coach J.B. Bickerstaff is for this team. I could see them being like last year’s Hawks in the playoffs.
· Most coaches would see them having several big men on a team and avoid playing them together, but Bickerstaff continues to embrace it with success. I have thought having Mobley play the 4 alongside Allen was a good idea, but I didn’t anticipate just how good defensively they would be together. Lauri Markkanen alongside the duo has been comically effective.
What do you think about the Celtics and Cavs? Are there any teams you have been excited
about or disappointed in? Let me know in
the comments!
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