10 Upperclassmen to Watch in the Men’s NCAA Tournament

Every year, people seem to gravitate towards certain teams during the tournament and often seem to choose one player to gravitate towards because they are having a great game.  This year, there will be a lot of focus on some elite younger players, but there are several upperclassmen who deserve a lot of attention.  In this post, I focus on 10 upperclassmen who could be exciting to watch or essential for their respective teams.  As a bonus, I also focused on 10 players competing for top picks in the NBA Draft, most of whom are underclassmen.

As a note, all stats are per https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/.

 

Oscar Tshiebwe, Kentucky, Jr, PF/C

Kentucky is an amazing team, and Tshiebwe is the biggest reason why.  The Sporting News Player of the Year has put up monster numbers, averaging 17.0 PPG, 15.2 RPG, 3.4 stocks per game (steals+blocks), and shot 60.2% from the field.  He is one of the most dominant players in the paint due to his basketball IQ, finishing ability, and size (6’9, 260 lbs.).  His 49.3 net rating shows how valuable he is and how dominant at both ends Kentucky is with him on the court.  The biggest questions with him come down to his ability outside the paint.  While he isn’t expected to be a playmaker or shooter for them, he is a poor free throw shooter (69.3%), so I wonder how he will respond if he gets fouled after getting the rebound when a team is trying to score in a close game.  I think a bigger thing to worry about is if they face a team with strong shooting big men.  While I wouldn’t be worried about a matchup like Gonzaga offensively, where he should be able to beat up on either Drew Timme or Chet Holmgren on offense, how would he handle a game where Holmgren is an elite shooter and Timme is able to hit a couple?  I think a team would need to shoot well in order to beat Kentucky, but what impact does Tshiebwe have if this starts happening?  Would he only be there to scare players away from the rim?

 

Drew Timme, Gonzaga, Jr, PF/C

Last year, Timme was dominant up until the Championship game, when Baylor forced him to have as many turnovers as field goals made (5).  The catch is that Baylor’s big men weren’t that good, so was it just good scheming and bad luck?  This year, Timme was still excellent, but had career lows in FG% (58.8%), 2P% (61.3%), and 3P% (28.0%), while also having a career worst 2.5 TOV and 6.3 RPG.  I think part of this has been due to his heightened presence and starring role for Gonzaga, but he also has managed to score less than last season (17.5 PPG vs. 19.0 PPG) despite attempting more field goals (11.7 vs. 11.3).  He is absolutely an elite player offensively in the paint, but I think he is still mortal and can be stopped, which limits how far Gonzaga can be, especially if they match up against Kentucky.  On the plus side, he has dropped to just 1.7 fouls, which also plagued him later in the tournament last season.

 

Jaime Jaquez, UCLA, Jr, SG/SF

While most will focus on Johnny Juzang, UCLA’s top scorer, Jaquez is a bit of an x-factor for UCLA.  He is one of their better defenders (3.3 DBPM, 96.0 DRtg), rebounders (5.8 RPG), and scorers (14.0 PPG, 53.6 2P%), so he is an essential member for their team.  While he is second on the team in assists (2.2 APG), he also operates a lot off the ball and is smart at positioning himself off the ball, which makes him more annoying to defend since he is such a smart player.  There is one big catch that makes him so important:  he only shot 29.0% from deep this year, dropping from 39.4% last season (though ironically his FT% rose from 65.5% to 76.5%).  While he has compensated for this by taking nearly 4 times as many 2’s, where he has been more efficient and is his optimal shot, him hitting 3’s could swing how far UCLA goes in the tournament.  They are a legitimately great team and, if Jaquez goes on a hot streak from deep, could seriously make the Championship Game.  Even if they struggle, I don’t think the Elite Eight is too much of a stretch for them, but his shot will change this tournament.

 

Kofi Cockburn, Illinois, Jr, C

Illinois had an excellent season but had a massive dud of a Big Ten Tournament, being shockingly upset by Indiana in their first game.  While it’s easier to point to the fact that Cockburn played well and Illinois got awful shooting performances from Alfonso Plummer (2-12), Andre Curbelo (1-7), and Trent Frazier (4-10), the truth is that sometimes bad shooting games happen, but Cockburn still has to be the most dominant player on the court.  He was one of the most offensively dominant players in the paint this season, putting up 21.1 PPG on 59.8 FG% and 10.6 RPG.  His size (7’0”, 285 lbs.) makes him practically unstoppable in the paint, which is how Illinois might need to operate if their shots aren’t falling.  There are two major flaws in his game:  his game is limited outside the paint, as he isn’t a shot creator (0.8 APG, 2.2 TOV) or shooter (0 3PA, 65.1 FT%), and he isn’t that great of a defender when he can’t rely on bullying a smaller opponent.  If he faces another physically imposing big (don’t count on a matchup against Tshiebwe since Illinois and Kentucky are on opposite sides of the bracket, as fun as that would be), a strong shooter, or a crafty big, he (and Illinois) might be in a bit of trouble.

 

Collin Gillespie, Villanova, Sr, PG

There are several people that seem high on Villanova and others that are not; I tend to be in the former due to the depth of their starting lineup, which starts with Gillespie.  The 2-time Big East Player of the Year shot a career high 42.2% from 3 and 89.4% from the line while also compiling career highs in PPG (15.9), RPG (3.8), and 3PA (7.0).  Still, there are questions about him and this team, especially with defense and ball movement.  Nobody on this team is an elite athlete or defensive player, so I’m not sure how they will fair against a team that is strong offensively.  For all the talk about great guard play in the tournament that tends to be regurgitated by any talking head, there actually is concern with that with Villanova:  they only averaged 12.1 APG and Gillespie led the way with just 3.3; if they need a bucket at the end of the game, who will create the shot?  Gillespie will need to be a better playmaker than he was this season if Villanova wants to have a shot, but this team can be surprising.

 

James Akinjo, Baylor, Sr, PG

Baylor might be a number one seed, but due to injuries and late season struggles, they are far from a favorite to win the tournament.  I think Akinjo is a big factor in what they can do this series, as just his shooting alone might point to a bit of a turning point for them.  In the first 15 games, where they went 15-0, he shot 47.5% from 2 and 41.4% from 3 for 14.4 PPG; in their last 15, where they went 9-6, he shot 40.0% from 2 and 20.3% from 3 for just 12.5 PPG.  While this wasn’t the only factor for their second half struggles, his efficiency will be crucial in them advancing far in the tournament.  Even if he isn’t efficient, don’t think he will be useless for the team; he is still an awesome playmaker (5.7 APG) and defender (2.1) who is a smart player on both ends and will make his teammates better.

 

Hyun-jung Lee, Davidson, Jr, SG/SF

This season, Davidson shot 38.6% from deep, and one player who could be drafted is another great shooter for them, Hyun-jung Lee.  Before we get started, he is not Stephen Curry since he is bigger and plays more off the ball.  Now that it’s out of the way, he had a rough season shooting for his standards and still shot 37.7% from deep, 59.4% from 2, and 77.7% from the line enroute to 16.0 PPG.  He also put up 6.0 RPG and was especially aggressive on the defensive boards.  While the team has many excellent shooters, Lee is essential from deep, especially if he can shoot closer to his 44.2% from 2020-21; if this happens, they could be an upset favorite and wind up going further in the tournament than anyone expects.  It’s also worth watching his defense, as he isn’t the best defender and often doesn’t work as hard on that end.

 

Terrence Shannon, Texas Tech, Jr, SG/SF

I’ll confess that I’m not at all high on Texas Tech and think they are a team that will be eliminated early.  I believe the player that will need to prove me wrong in this case is Shannon.  While he took a backseat offensively compared to last season (he only had 10.4 PPG on 7.7 FGA), he shot 37.2% from 3 and 51.0% from 2, both of which were improvements.  While he isn’t the best defender on a team centered around elite defense, he is a freak athlete and a strong defender who never fouls, especially when he’s locked in off the ball.  That said, he has shown limits to his game as a playmaker (2.0 APG vs. 2.1 TOV) and took a step back in rebounds (2.8).  I think that if he is more aggressive offensively, he can be a contributor to a team that is better than I expect, especially if he can get to the line more (79.7% on 2.8 FTA).

 

Jamaree Bouyee, San Francisco, Sr, PG

The matchup that I’m least certain about is actually San Francisco against Murray State, since both teams are so similar.  One major difference is that eventually it helps to have an excellent point guard taking over the game at the end, which is what you get from Bouyee.  He is a great scorer (16.7 PPG) who is efficient (53.9 2P%, 37.0 3P%), a good playmaker (4.0 APG, 2.3 TOV), strong rebounder (5.1 RPG), and defender (2.6 stocks, 94.8 DRtg, 3.7 DBPM).  The 5^th year senior provides a valuable level of leadership, experience, poise, and athleticism, in addition to the fact that he has insane endurance (35.9 MPG).  In a matchup that could be as close as this first round matchup might be, all eyes should be on Bouyee and how he elevates the team on both ends of the floor.

 

Keon Ellis, Alabama, Sr, SG

Alabama struggled in the regular season and SEC Tournament, but I think they are a better team than there 19-13 record indicates.  While I expect there will be more of a spotlight on their top 2 scorers (Jaden Shackelford and Jahvon Quinerly) and their big-name freshman (JD Davison, despite his struggles this season), Ellis should thrive under the radar for them.  He put up 12.0 PPG on 8.3 FGA while shooting 58.9% from 2 and 35.6% from 3 (43.4% overall), as well as 6.0 RPG, 1.8 APG, 2.5 stocks per game, and just 1.6 TOV in 30.7 MPG.  He operates a lot off the ball but is an awesome cutter and mover so he should be able to take away a defender from the play.  If a team opts to put a weaker defender on him, he should be able to torch them due to his size and athleticism, while a better defender on him would take away from a player like Shackelford.  He is also a strong defender both on and off the ball, and I think he could hold his own against several great scorers (he reminds me a bit of De’Andre Hunter for the Virginia team that won the Championship in 2019).  I seriously think Alabama could be the luckiest team in their matchups and have a chance to go far; Ellis will help them make it.

 

 

Bonus:  10 Potential Lottery Picks to Watch

The following 10 players are competing for higher spots in the NBA Draft in 2022 (I expect all will declare).  Their tournament performance could determine how there team plays as well as their draft stock.

 

Chet Holmgren, Gonzaga, Fr, PF/C

Everyone has been obsessing over Holmgren as a 7’ center who has shot 41.2% from deep and 73.4% from 2 while averaging 9.6 rebounds and 3.6 blocks per game (26.9 MPG).  Overall, he has an unreal net rating of 49.8 and has been elite on both ends.  There are two things I’m curious about:  he turns the ball over a decent amount (a minor concern since he’s not responsible for running the offense) and his frame (the bigger concern).  He is listed at just 195 pounds, which is concerning if Gonzaga ever faces a team where they have multiple big men and one can bully him.  How will he respond to being tossed around?  This could not only dictate his draft place but also be what determines Gonzaga’s finish.

 

Jabari Smith, Auburn, Fr, PF

Smith is currently my choice for top player in this year’s draft, as he is an elite shooter and scorer who has very few weaknesses.  While he isn’t that great of a playmaker and has some limitations due to not having great acceleration compared to others, Auburn is designed in a way where he can operate more off the ball and transition on offense, which has catered to some of his strengths.  He also has a defensive rating of 90.3 and has thrived on both ends, with 42.8 3P%, 81.6 FT% and has averaged 17.1 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 2.2 stocks (steals+blocks) per game (28.4 MPG).  His shooting will make him essential in the tournament, as Auburn shot just 32.0% from 3; if they want to go far, they will need to shoot better when they’re facing another elite defense.

 

Paolo Banchero, Duke, Fr, PF

Duke confuses me a bit this year, and Banchero might be the epitome of what confuses me.  He is an awesome finisher, shooting 53.0% from 2 and leading the team with 17.0 PPG, but shot just 30.6% from 3 and was average from the line (72.9%).  He has put up good defensive numbers defensively, with 2.3 DBPM and 2.0 stocks per game (32.4 MPG), but has largely relied on athleticism and honestly doesn’t look like that good of a defensive player.  All this is to say that I have no idea how Banchero will play if Duke goes further in the tournament, but they will need him to be amazing in a region with several strong teams.

 

Jaden Ivey, Purdue, So, SG

Ivey is a solid all-around player, as he is a good scorer (17.4 PPG), finisher (53.3 2P%), playmaker (3.2 APG), rebounder (4.9 RPG), and a solid shooter (35.6 3P%, 73.5 FT%).  He is a talented athlete who can drive players crazy on both ends when locked in, and he often is locked in on offense.  The issue is that he has taken a bit of a backseat on defense at times this season, which I think correlates to his increased scoring load.  He has the potential and has been a plus defender overall, but I question how much of that is him just relying on his athleticism or teammates.  Purdue is a legitimately competitive team who can go far but will need Ivey to be ready at all times defensively; I think he will do it.

 

Johnny Davis, Wisconsin, So, SG

Davis is another player who confuses me a bit since he is such a talented athlete yet inconsistent player this year, despite being named Big Ten Player of the Year.  He put up 19.7 PPG and 8.2 RPG, but was an inefficient scorer, shooting just 31.7% from 3 and 43.4% from the field, turned the ball over more than he picked up assists (2.3 TOV vs. 2.2 APG), and seemed to be at best lackadaisical on defense at points.  Despite that, he got to the line a ton (6.2 FTA, 78.3 FT%) and still was a plus defender since he thrived when locked in.  I’m not sold on Wisconsin this year and figure that they could make it to the Final Four or lose in the first round; I think Davis’s performance and effort will dictate their outcome.

 

Jalen Duren, Memphis, Fr, C

Duren is another freak athlete big man who can do a lot, but he is raw and a bit erratic, especially on offense.  He shot 62.9% from 2 while putting up 12.2 PPG, 8.1 RPG, and 2.2 BPG in just 25.3 MPG.  He is another physically imposing big man, as he is 6’11” and 250 lbs. and has the athleticism to make him even scarier.  That said, he turned the ball over a ton (2.3 TOV), ran into foul trouble at times (2.7 PF), seemed to extend himself greater than he should have at times, sometimes making passes he should not have, and didn’t have the best feel for the game yet, often chasing after blocks rather than making smart defensive plays (a behavior that is common for young athletic big men).  Memphis didn’t have a terrific season and was a 9 seed, so the expectations for the team shouldn’t be high, especially since a first-round win would likely pit them against Gonzaga.  Still, if he can put up a strong fight in the first two rounds, he will likely cement his status as a lottery pick.

 

Bennedict Mathurin, Arizona, So, SG

Arizona is a team that is likely to go far in the tournament, and Mathurin will play a big part of their success.  He has been a good all-around player for the team, putting up 17.4 PPG, 37.6 3P%, 53.0 2P%, 76.4 FT%, 5.6 RPG, 2.6 APG, and a 95.8 DRtg.  There might be some concerns about his efficiency, but I think those are more due to his increased load on offense.  His defensive focus has been spotty at times, which isn’t too surprising for a player that is younger and is the focus on offense.  The reason this should be a bit of a bigger issue for him compared to others is that this team is so competitive that I’m not sure they can have anyone not have the focus.  I think Mathurin will be able to focus more often than not, especially once they win the first couple rounds and he is inspired by how well they are playing.  He is a competitive player who is also a freak athlete, so I think he can continue to play well.

 

Keegan Murray, Iowa, So, PF

Iowa might have been given the worst luck out of any top-5 team in their seeding, but Murray could help them power through this.  He is an awesome all-around off-ball player, putting up 23.6 PPG, 40.5 3P%, 62.0 2P%, 8.6 RPG, and 3.3 stocks.  He is such an efficient scorer and unreal defender, though he isn’t a good playmaker or creator for others, which could cause some limitations to his game.  If they wind up going further in the tournament and face some bigger defender, Murray could have his way with them by stretching the floor, and could torch smaller defenders by finishing over them.  He is a smart player who almost always seems to be in the perfect spot.  The bad luck for them is that they have to face Richmond in the first round, who is surprisingly good, and the winner of Providence and South Dakota State in the second, neither of whom are pushovers, all before the potential of facing Kansas.  Murray is what will bring this team past the first couple rounds.

 

TyTy Washington, Kentucky, Fr, PG

Washington is an interesting player because there are a lot of things he does well, though he isn’t the best player on Kentucky by any means.  He put up 12.8 PPG, 50.9 2P%, 34.7 3P%, 4.0 APG, 3.5 RPG, 1.6 TOV, and 97.6 DRtg in 29.1 MPG.  He has good athleticism overall and has a good feel for where his teammates are on the court, especially for a freshman.  He did have some shooting struggles at the end of the year, which sounds like might have been partially the result of some lingering injuries.  While this shouldn’t be the biggest deal in the Draft if the injuries are minor, I wonder how his shot will be impacted by them.  While a comparison might be made to James Bouknight, who struggled in the tournament while dealing with multiple injuries and resulted in UConn struggling, Washington isn’t the best player on the team and is more of a playmaker and less of a scorer than Bouknight, which might not impact Kentucky as much.

 

Ochai Agbaji, Kansas, Sr, SG

Almost every year there is at least one upperclassman who makes his way into talks about being a lottery pick, and Agbaji is currently the guy.  He is an elite scorer, putting up 19.7 PPG, 40.5 3P%, and 54.2 2P%.  He is also an athletic player who seems to be so smart about shot selection.  He didn’t put as much effort into defense, which might change if Kansas goes further, or creating for others (1.6 APG vs. 2.1 TOV), but Kansas isn’t designed for him to be one of the top playmakers.  The catch is that a lot of the scoring and shooting comes from him with Kansas, as several other players are inconsistent from deep or the line, suggesting Agbaji cannot afford to have a bad game this tournament.  That said, he has played in two tournaments and has had moments where he thrived, so I think he is more ready than almost anybody to take the spotlight.

 

What players or teams are you excited to watch for in the tournament?  Let me know in the comments!