NCAA Tournament Predictions

March Madness is officially back!  In this post, I include my coverage related to both the Men’s and Women’s tournaments.  I include my brackets, potential Final Four teams, potential upset, and a bonus joke bracket.

 

Men’s

I’m not sure who will win because I keep second guessing myself about everyone.  I believe I have had 6 different teams winning it in my mind since the conference tournaments started, with none of them feeling particularly good at any point.  That said, my bracket is below.

My decision making largely boiled down to 5 things:  number of players who could be drafted (with a focus on upperclassmen), three-point percent, free throw percent, defensive rating, and how I expected each team would fair in the matchup.

 

My Final Four

Kansas

I don’t feel good about Kansas winning, but I happen to think that their matchups are most favorable prior to the Final Four out of everybody.  Overall, am I putting too much pressure on superstar Ochai Agbaji?  Maybe, but he is a consistent senior who has been often dominant.  They also have Christian Bruan, a solid shooter who is also a good rebounder as a guard, Jalen Wilson, a great finisher and talented athlete, David McCormack, a solid big who is smart as a team defender, Dajuan Harris, a steady playmaker, and a healthy Remy Martin, a decent shooter who plays hard on both ends.  Kansas is made up of several players who are older (none of the 6 mentioned here are freshman and the only sophomore is Wilson) and are smart team players on both ends, allowing them to be one of the top offenses and defenses in college basketball.  It also helps that they could wind up with the easiest path to get there, as Auburn has been a bit shaky recently.

 

Kentucky

This is a different Kentucky team than normal; while we may have grown used to Kentucky being a one-and-done factory, this team relies on more upperclassmen, as the only underclassman in their rotation is freshman point guard TyTy Washington, who plays a little older than his age and is not their best player.  Their star is definitively Oscar Tshiebwe, one of the most dominant players at both ends in the paint who also has an incredible basketball IQ.  They are also made up of Kellen Grady, a sharpshooting guard who is a good defender off the ball, Sahvir Wheeler, an elite playmaker, Keion Brooks, a terrific athlete who is a good defender, and bench players in Davion Mintz, a solid shooter and player off the ball, and Jacob Toppin, an elite athlete who is a strong finisher.  It should be noted that this team will not have an easy time making it to the Championship Game due to their matchups, but they are a dominant team.

 

Gonzaga

Gonzaga isn’t the team that they were last season, but it isn’t fair to necessarily rule them out immediately considering how talented they are.  Their superstar is Drew Timme, a strong offensive center who is great in the paint and hasn’t buckled as the star this season.  Their intriguing young rookie is Chet Holmgren, a 7’0” sharpshooter who is also a great rebounder and shot blocker.  Their star point guard is Andrew Nembhard, a versatile player who is a great playmaker, defender, finisher, and solid shooter.  They also have a pair of sharpshooters in Julian Strawther and Rasir Bolton, as well as some elite athletes, defenders, and finishers of the bench in forward Anton Watson and guards Nolan Hickman and Hunter Sallis.  Where I am worried about this team comes down to the fact that I think the impact of Timme and Holmgren can be muted in the right matchup.  Timme struggled last year with fouls, turnovers, and shooting confidence; while he has improved in fouling and confidence, he has gotten worse at turning the ball over and efficiency, while not particularly improving defensively.  As for Holmgren, he’s only 195 lbs. at 7’, so I think it is possible to bully him off the court with an athletic physical big.  I think Kentucky will be a nightmare matchup for them if both make it to the Final Four, so that could be their demise.

 

Arizona

Arizona is an incredible team who has a legitimate chance to win the tournament.  Bennedict Mathurin is an athletic guard who is their best scorer and is able to do everything decently.  They also have Christian Koloko, an elite player at both ends in the paint who is no longer a liability from the line, Azuolas Tubelis, a great finisher who is also a skilled and smart defender both in the paint and around the arc, Kerr Kriisa, a skilled playmaker who can also shoot some, and Dalen Terry, an athletic guard who can finish, pass, and rebound well while also being an elite defender all playing in the starting lineup.  Their bench includes two guard who are solid shooters and elite finishers in Pelle Larsson and Justin Kier and a dominant big on both ends in Oumar Ballo.  The reason I’m not sold on them winning is because they have to face a team with an easier schedule in the Final Four and the fact that they are not an elite shooting team, which could give them trouble when facing a team who is stronger in the paint.  That said, they cannot be ruled out so quickly.

 

 

Other Potential Finalists

Villanova

There are red flags about Villanova regarding their depth, playmaking, and how their defense will translate due to their athleticism.  That said, their starting lineup is made up of Collin Gillespie, an elite shooter, Justin Moore, a decent shooter who is a solid rebounder as well, Jermaine Samuels, an awesome finisher who is a decent defender, Eric Dixon, a good finisher who is a solid athlete, rebounder, and shooter, albeit on few attempts, and Brandon Slater, an elite finisher, decent shooter, and arguably their best defender.  Their only consistent bench player is Caleb Daniels, an awesome finisher and shooting wing.  Everybody is great in their role, which shouldn’t rule them out, but I don’t see how they beat a deeper Arizona team.

 

UCLA

UCLA might be a 4 seed, but they are a legit team.  Their best player is Johnny Juzang, a good shooter and scorer on the ball (as well as solid off), but they also have sharpshooters in Tyger Campbell and David Singleton and elite athletes and solid rebounders or finishers in Jaime Jazquez, Jules Bernard, Jaylen Clark, Cody Riley, and Myles Johnson.  While I would not consider any of them elite individual defenders, several are exceptional team defenders, resulting in them having an awesome defense.  That region is a tougher one, as they would likely have to beat Baylor and Kentucky, but this team could do it.

 

Notable Upsets

As a note, I do not consider 9 beating 8 to be an upset.  While I don’t consider 10 beating 7 an upset either, I will treat it like one in this post

 

First Round

The truth is that this year I could see any team losing in the first round with how weird it is.  That said, these 4 results are the upsets I am expecting.

 

13 South Dakota State beating 4 Providence

This one is simple:  South Dakota State is the best shooting team in the tournament, and I don’t consider Providence to be an elite team, though they are absolutely a talented one.  This game is not a lock, as you can’t totally sleep on Providence, but elite shooting often results in early success.

 

12 UAB beating 5 Houston

Both of these teams are great defensive teams, but there is one major difference between the two in my opinion:  Houston is not a team that is reliable behind the arc or at the line, whereas UAB is, which will make a world of difference against a team allowing limited options.

 

12 Indiana beating 5 Saint Mary’s

This is weird since Saint Mary’s is better at the line, behind the arc, and defensively than Indiana, which makes this an unusual pick.  That said, often a higher seeded team with no players expected to be drafted loses to a team that has at least one, and Indiana’s Trayce Jackson-Davis is expected to be a late second rounder at this time.

 

10 San Francisco beating 7 Murray State

This could go either way here, since these two teams are almost identical in free throw percent, three-point percent, and defensive rating, as well as each having one player who could be drafted.  Ultimately, I like San Francisco in this matchup due to the presence of an experienced senior guard in Jamaree Bouyee.

 

Second Round

6 Alabama beating 3 Texas Tech

Alabama is a poor shooting team, but I think they are a good team overall with a lot of experience and good defense.  On the other hand, Texas Tech is an elite defensive team who is among the most unreliable offensive teams in college basketball.  Ultimately, I’m trusting the team that can provide any sort of offense on a given day.

 

6 LSU beating 3 Wisconsin

This isn’t so much because LSU is a great team, but more so because I think Wisconsin is a pretty bad one.  I initially had Colgate beating Wisconsin, but I seriously don’t see how they go far unless star Johnny Davis is more efficient and active defensively than ever.

 

Third Round

6 Alabama beating 2 Duke

I think this is more because Duke just confuses me this year.  They have the potential to win the tournament, but I wouldn’t bat an eye if they lose in the first round.  Alabama is not a good shooting team, but is deep, has several reliable upperclassmen, and is a good defensive team, something I cannot guarantee with Duke’s fairly young team.

 

4 UCLA beating 1 Baylor

This one is easy for me:  Baylor has not been that good in the second half of the season and is dealing with injuries, while I think UCLA is a legit team who could compete.  I think Baylor is the number 1 seed most likely to lose early, and it doesn’t help that they are in the same region as UCLA and Kentucky, who are both excellent, as well as Purdue, who could give them a hard time.

 

Potential Upsets

I won’t discuss each of these games, but these are several other first and second round matchups to watch for a potential upset.

 

First Round

·         2 Auburn vs. 15 Jacksonville State

·         3 Wisconsin vs. 14 Colgate

·         3 Tennessee vs. 14 Longwood

·         4 Arkansas vs. 13 Vermont

·         4 Illinois vs. 13 Chattanooga

·         5 Iowa vs. 12 Richmond

·         6 Texas vs. 11 Virginia Tech

·         6 LSU vs. 11 Iowa State

·         7 Michigan State vs. 10 Davidson

·         7 Ohio State vs. 10 Loyola Chicago

 

Second Round (dependent on first round)

·         1 Baylor vs. 8 North Carolina

·         2 Duke vs. 7 Michigan State

·         4 Illinois vs. 12 UAB

·         5 Iowa vs. 13 South Dakota State

 

Women’s

I didn’t do quite the analysis for the women’s side that I did for the men’s side, which was part because I haven’t made WNBA Draft predictions (though I am seriously considering it in the future) and a bigger part because a lot of analytics haven’t made the same jump into women’s college basketball as men’s.  There still is a bigger focus on what teams and individual players are better, which can be subjective in some ways.  As such, I based my predictions on the skill of their players, their coaches, record against top-25 teams, net rating, individual matchup, and where they are playing.  There typically aren’t massive upsets due to the top teams typically getting home court advantage (something that doesn’t happen in men’s basketball), so I didn’t detail the upsets I selected.

 

Final Four

South Carolina

I predicted South Carolina prior to the season and they dominated, so I am sticking with them.  They went 11-0 against top-25 teams, always looking ready to play against tougher opponents.  Coach Dawn Staley has rapidly become one of the best coaches in college, and winning this tournament might convince me to have her number 1.  Their biggest offensive threats are Aliyah Boston, a dominant force in the paint, and Destanni Henderson, a sharpshooter who is a good playmaker.  They are one of the top defenses in college and have several elite individual and team defenders, which makes them difficult to score on.  There is one major catch:  while they are solid inside the arc, they are a poor shooting team, which could make it difficult if they aren’t hitting 2’s.  That said, they are so elite defensively that teams hit fewer than a third of their shots against them, so I don’t think this is an issue.

 

UConn

This year was a tough year for UConn due to injuries, as both young stars Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd missed substantial time.  That said, both are back and should be healthier by the time they reach later rounds, which will be scary to face on both ends.  Despite that, they still had one of the highest scoring margins in the league, have one of the best coaches in college history in Geno Auriemma, and have the best associate coach to never be a head coach in Chris Dailey, a coach who I think would be a top coach had she opted to become one.  You also can’t rule out Christyn Williams, a strong offensive player who can shoot, and the finishing ability of Olivia Nelson-Ododa and Aaliyah Edwards.  You also can’t omit the fact that they have an excellent defense and several players with a high IQ on that end.  The most important reason I think they beat NC State in the Elite Eight is because the game is in Bridgeport.

 

Stanford

Look, anytime Tara VanDerveer is coaching, you have to expect Stanford will make it far in the tournament.  Further, their offense was awesome and defense was very good, so they had one of the higher net ratings in the league.  While they didn’t have one or two elite scorers, they deep offense, which included sharpshooters Lexie Hull, Hannah Jump, and Lacie Hull, elite finishers, Cameron Brink and Francesca Belibi, and several players who could be playmakers.  I have my doubts about how they will fair in the tournament due to not having a player I expect will thrive in crunch time, but they are talented enough to make reaching the Final Four be a reasonable expectation.

 

Baylor

Now we reach an interesting one, since Louisville is so talented that some might expect they’d be a shoo-in.  That said, you cannot rule out Baylor at all, as first time NCAA head coach Nicki Collen, who previously coached the Atlanta Dream for 3 seasons, has led this team to a phenomenal offense and good defense, resulting in a great net rating.  They have two awesome shooters and playmakers in Jordan Lewis and Sarah Andrews, their superstar and elite finisher NaLyssa Smith, and elite defenders in Smith and Queen Egbo.  This team is a legitimately good team and could seriously make a run at a championship.

 

Other Potential Finalists

NC State

As always, NC State has an awesome offense, a great defense, an unreal net rating, a deep team that knows their role, and a great coach in Wes Moore (not to be mixed up with the author, entrepreneur, and Maryland gubernatorial candidate of the same name who published The Other Wes Moore, one of my favorite non-fiction books of all time).  They have several great shooters, including Elissa Cunane, Jakia Brown-Turner, Kayla Jones, Raina Perez, and Kai Crutchfield, some great finishers in Cunane, Jones, and Jada Boyd, and a couple awesome playmakers in Perez and Diamond Johnson.  Two things to watch for them:  they have no elite scorers and have the bad luck of facing UConn in Bridgeport.

 

Louisville

Louisville has an amazing defense, offense, net rating, 3P%, record against top-25 teams (8-3), team, and coach (Jeff Walz).  They have several talented players, including solid shooters such as Hailey Van Lith, Kianna Smith, Emily Engstler, Olivia Cochran, and Payton Verhulst, some elite defense led by Engstler, and some quality playmakers led by Smith.  Why don’t I have them winning in that case?  Well, the biggest reason would be that they don’t have one player who is their definitive finisher, but honestly I could see them beating Baylor.

 

LSU

Well, the biggest reason I’m scared to rule out LSU is because Kim Mulkey’s intensity is not something to go against and makes me slightly terrified of her (of course she is an amazing coach, but still).  They are also 6-1 against top-25 teams and had a sizeable net rating.  Also, you have Khayla Pointer, a talented player who is their best playmaker, scorer, and possibly defender, and Alexis Morris, a talented scorer, finisher, playmaker, and finisher.  The reason I don’t have them going far is because they cannot shoot well, struggle from the line, and would have to get past Stanford.

 

Bonus:  Coin Flip Men’s Bracket

Every year, I do a joke bracket that is determined by flipping a coin.  This year, I got some results that I don’t think have much of a shot of happening, but if it does then let’s just say some fans from Texas and fans of defense might be excited about this result.

 

Who do you think will win the tournament for men’s and women’s?  Let me know in the comments!