2022 Playoff Predictions

Now that the NBA regular season has ended, we have arrived at the Play-In and Playoffs!  In this post, I have made my predictions for who will win each series.  As a note, I am assuming that Covid-19 is not a major factor, though that can dictate some series considering rising Covid numbers.

 

Play-In Games

East

Brooklyn Nets (7) beats Cleveland Cavaliers (8), clinch 7 seed

While the Cavs are certainly not a team to sleep on in most situations, it will be more difficult for them to win if Jarrett Allen is unable to play (as I expect).  With that, you get a great offense and a poor defense facing a good defense (though great if healthy) and underwhelming offense.  I think the Nets will have difficulties matchup up against both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving (though Irving has struggled since returning full-time), though this isn’t a lock.

 

Atlanta Hawks (9) beats Charlotte Hornets (10)

This game could wind up being very close, as the two teams are both great offensive teams but poor defensive teams.  Both teams have one of their better players injured, with Atlanta’s John Collins and Charlotte’s Gordon Hayward likely out, but the two All-Star guards of Trae Young and LaMelo Ball will play.  Both teams have great depth, though Charlotte plays so much faster than Atlanta.  Ultimately, Atlanta is a better shooting team and I don’t think Charlotte has a defensive answer to Clint Capela, who has improved as of late, so I am going with Atlanta, but Charlotte could outrun them and change this.

 

Atlanta Hawks (9) beats Cleveland Cavaliers (8), clinch 8 seed

Due to injuries, the Cavs have played much worse than the Hawks lately, which gives me reason to be concerned.  While the Cavs have been incredible defensively, I think they will have their difficulties stopping Trae Young without Jarrett Allen’s presence in the paint (though don’t overlook Evan Mobley’s presence) and a clear-cut option to slow him down (I like their defensive options off-ball more).  While the Hawks have been poor defensively, the fit still isn’t quite there with Caris LeVert yet, and I’m not sure who else is aggressive enough and efficient to take advantage of this other than Darius Garland.  On top of that, Clint Capela has been stronger defensively lately, which adds a wrinkle.  I want to see the Cavs in the playoffs since I like their team when healthy, but I can’t bring myself to predict it.

 

West

Minnesota Timberwolves (7) beats Los Angeles Clippers (8), clinch 7 seed

The presence of Paul George, who missed 51 games this season, makes this a little bit tougher to predict since I expect that would boost the Clipper’s poor defense.  Still, throughout the season, the Timberwolves were an average defense and strong offense, whereas the Clippers struggled offensively despite a stronger defense.  Ultimately, I have trouble figuring out how the Clippers will defend all of Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, and D’Angelo Russell.

 

New Orleans Pelicans (9) beats San Antonio Spurs (10)

It’s weird how similar these two teams are as average teams on both ends who play slow and are poor shooting teams.  Ultimately, I think one of CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, and Jonas Valanciunas will be difficult to stop (though don’t sleep on Jakob Poeltl slowing down Valanciunas) and I don’t feel great betting on Dejounte Murray after he missed a few games with an illness.  On top of that, the Spurs have such a young team that might need another year before cracking the playoffs.

 

Los Angeles Clippers (8) beats New Orleans Pelicans (9), clinch 8 seed

Even while missing two stars for this matchup in Kawhi Leonard and Zion Williamson, this could be a fun one to watch, as both teams have looked better than I would have expected at points this season.  Ultimately, I feel safer about the Clippers for several reasons.  The Clippers are a good defensive team and with players like Paul George, Terance Mann, Robert Covington, Isaiah Hartenstein, Nicolas Batum, and Ivaca Zubac might have the defense necessary to slow down some combination of CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, and Jonas Valanciunas enough.  On the flip side, the Pelicans are a poor defensive team and their best option to defend George is Herb Jones (while a great defender, a tall task for a rookie).  The Clippers are a great shooting team who should be able to pile it on since they have several excellent shooters.  A little fun fact I didn’t realize:  the Pelicans only shot 33.2% from deep this year, with Brandon Ingram, Devonte’ Graham, and Garrett Temple all shooting below their normal clips (though the team has shot better since the trade deadline).

 

First Round

East

Miami Heat (1) beats Atlanta Hawks (8), 4-1

Ready for a slow one?  Both teams rank near the bottom in pace but are still strong offenses overall.  The biggest difference is that the Heat have one of the top defenses while the Hawks have one of the worst.  I expect there will be one game where the Heat can’t seem to make any baskets (which is possible if Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, or Kyle Lowry struggle and Bam Adebayo isn’t aggressive), but ultimately the Heat should be able to smother the Hawks.  I think Lowry will drive Trae Young crazy and force him into making risky decisions, which the Heat should be able to capitalize on.  While I like both teams’ depth, I like Miami’s more and I think they have at least 3 of the top-4 players in the series (with the possibility of Tyler Herro being ranked above Clint Capela as well).

 

Boston Celtics (2) beats Brooklyn Nets (7), 4-2

If Robert Williams was healthy, this might be a sweep, but the lack of depth the Celtic’s have will make this appear like more of a competitive series.  Ultimately, Boston has an elite defense, has been better offensively since the trade deadline, has two exceptional scorers in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and has several players who have been shooting well lately, including Al Horford, Marcus Smart, Grant Williams, and Payton Pritchard.  I know that the Nets have Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, which is why so many teams fear them, but they’re not that good of a team.  Irving has dealt with inconsistencies when playing on fewer than rest of 2 days off and has only shot 43.3% since becoming a full-time player again.  They have so many players that are dealing with injuries and it is uncertain if Seth Curry will be back yet; if he’s not, there’s a chance their third best offensive player is either Patty Mills, LaMarcus Aldridge, Andre Drummond, or Bruce Brown.  Add in the fact that their defense should be a mess and I don’t see them pulling off a series win.

 

Milwaukee Bucks (3) beats Chicago Bulls (6), 4-0

I feel pretty bad for the Bulls; they were so good for much of the season, but dealt with injuries and struggles and were just 8-15 after the All-Star break.  Their defense has been a mess without Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso and with Caruso still inconsistent since returning from injury and Ball out for the playoffs, I don’t see them being able to stop anyone.  Add in the fact that the Bucks have Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday, who are all at least great offensively, as well as Bobby Portis, Grayson Allen, Brook Lopez, and Pat Connaughton and I’m not sure how the Bulls can stop them.  They don’t have one player who even makes sense to match up against Antetokounmpo, which will make it a nightmare of a series.  Still, I don’t want to rule out DeMar DeRozan after an exceptional season, but I think the Bucks have someone who can match up well against every player the Bulls have.

 

Toronto Raptors (5) beats Philadelphia 76ers (4), 4-2

First, I’ll start with the reasons the 76ers are not a team to write off immediately:  Joel Embiid is a superstar who is near impossible to stop; several players have shot well, including Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, Georges Niang, and Danny Green; Maxey is a fantastic offensive player who is not easy to stop; and Embiid and Matisse Thybulle are both fantastic defensive players.  That said, I feel pretty confident that the Raptors will win this series.  Their starting lineup has no weak spots defensively, as a lineup of 6’1 Fred VanVleet, 6’5 Gary Trent Jr., 6’7 OG Anunoby, 6’9 Scottie Barnes, and 6’9 Pascal Siakam are all talented defenders who can guard multiple positions, which could minimize the impact of players like Maxey and Harris.  On top of that, all are efficient scorers, with an eFG% of over 50%, which means that poor defenders like Maxey, Harden, and Harris would have difficulties being hidden.  While the Raptors will likely have difficulties slowing down Embiid consistently, their big rotation of Precious Achiuwa, Chris Boucher, and Khem Birch could at least throw some size, athleticism, and aggression out there when Toronto goes with a big lineup.  As talented as Toronto is, there are two red flags from Philadelphia’s end that should prevent this from going to 7 games:  Harden has been extremely inefficient in Philly (40.2 FG%, 32.6 3P%), and Thybulle is unvaccinated, meaning Danny Green would likely be the replacement for Thybulle in games in Toronto, which will be a drop off defensively.

 

West

Phoenix Suns (1) beats Los Angeles Clippers (8), 4-1

Can’t I just simplify it down to Phoenix is dominant and L.A. is not?  No?  Realistically, Phoenix is better on both ends of the court and I think will have an answer for anyone that the Clippers throw at them (yes, Mikal Bridges can at least force Paul George to have difficulties with efficiency, especially since George hasn’t been back from his injury for a long time).  I think that the Suns have the upper hand in almost every matchup, are much stronger offensively, and have the best player in the series (I’ll go there and say Devin Booker is better than Paul George in this matchup for this series at this time).  I can’t think of a way the Clippers can advance, let alone win 3 games.

 

Memphis Grizzlies (2) beats Minnesota Timberwolves (7), 4-1

There was the question about what Ja Morant’s health meant here, but he returned in their second to last game, so I think he should be okay.  As such, Memphis should have a much better offense and defense than Minnesota, which will make it difficult for them to come out on top.  I think several defenders should be able to limit Minnesota’s big 3 of Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, and D’Angelo Russell, including Jaren Jackson Jr., Dillon Brooks, De’Anthony Melton, and Desmond Bane.  I don’t believe Minnesota has the defenders needed to slow town Memphis; while Patrick Beverley will likely be on Morant, he has struggled with foul trouble in the past, so I wouldn’t put money on that being the perfect solution.  Even if it is a blowout of a series, there are two major things to watch:  this will likely be a fast-paced series and will contain a lot of trash talk.

 

Golden State Warriors (3) beats Denver Nuggets (6), 4-2

Theoretically, the Warriors should beat the Nuggets easily since the Nuggets are still without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.  That said, the catch is that we don’t know if Steph Curry will be healthy by then.  I don’t think the Warriors have a definitive answer to Nikola Jokic, though Draymond Green might be able to do some damage, so that should result in a couple wins for Denver.  That said, Green and Klay Thompson have looked like themselves again, and Jordan Poole has been playing better again lately.  It will come down to how Curry looks, Andrew Wiggins plays, and what Denver’s role players can do (keep an eye out on Aaron Gordon, Will Barton, Monte Morris, and Bones Hyland).

 

Dallas Mavericks (4) beats Utah Jazz (5), 4-2

I will start this section with the following caveat:  Luka Doncic was injured recently and if he is going to miss time, don’t expect the Mavericks to win this series (last I heard was that the team was hoping he could play Game 1).  On paper, it would make sense to think Utah should win easily since they are elite offensively and a top-10 defense in defensive rating, but the catch is that their defense is heavily reliant on Rudy Gobert.  When the Mavericks send out their 3 best offensive players in Doncic, Jalen Brunson, and Spencer Dinwiddie, I’m not sure how the Jazz defend them; Royce O’Neal would likely go on one of them, but he is better at guarding wings than guards.  On the other end, I think that it will be easier for Dallas to hide weaker offensive players than it would be for Utah to, which will make it a tougher matchup.  Outside of their starting 5, I’m not confident in anyone scoring efficiently for Utah; if it reaches the point where Danuel House is your pillar of efficiency off the bench (who I love and thought was a good match with the team), your bench is probably not in the best condition.

 

 

Conference Semifinals

East

Miami Heat (1) beats Toronto Raptors (5), 4-3

This matchup is going to be a slow-moving offensive battle with a lot of switching and I cannot wait for this!  I think Toronto’s offense will actually be better since I trust the combination of Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, and Gary Trent more than anyone Miami has on a consistent basis (that might be controversial because Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro are both awesome offensively, but they have their stretches where they don’t score consistently).  That said, I think the Heat have so many options on defense that make me wonder how the Raptors will consistently score.  Bam Adebayo, Butler, Kyle Lowry, and P.J. Tucker are all elite defenders, and even Max Strus has improved defensively recently as well.  While an elite offense can often beat an elite defense in a series, I don’t want to bet an average offense against an elite defense.

 

Milwaukee Bucks (3) beats Boston Celtics (2), 4-3

If I knew Robert Williams was going to be healthy for this series, I would have Boston winning this in 6 or 7.  Without him, the Celtics’ depth will be tested, which will be problematic if Giannis Antetokounmpo forces them into foul trouble.  The Celtics have one of the best defenses in the NBA and would trust any of Marcus Smart, Al Horford, Williams (if healthy), Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, and Grant Williams defending and switching, which could make life hard on several strong offensive players that they have.  The bigger question mark comes from their offense, since that has been known to come and go at times.  Their two role players who I consistently trust shooting are Grant Williams and Payton Pritchard, which won’t help if Tatum or Brown have a rough scoring game.  As for the Bucks, I figure that at least one of Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday would be able to have a good game, in addition to strong offensive role players like Bobby Portis and Grayson Allen.

 

West

Phoenix Suns (1) beats Dallas Mavericks (4), 4-1

While Dallas has been amazing this season defensively, especially in the second half, Phoenix should be able to feast on an average, slow offense.  While Luka Doncic might be the best player in the series, the Suns can do two things to impact him:  Mikal Bridges is the perfect player to defend his size and versatility, and they have the lineup to limit the rest of their offense.  They have a starting lineup of Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Bridges, Jae Crowder, and Deandre Ayton, meaning that Booker is their weakest defender despite being at worst an average defender who tries at that end.  On top of that, I’m not sure how the Mavericks will defend the combo of Paul and Booker; maybe Jalen Brunson on Paul and Reggie Bullock on Booker?  Either way, the Suns should find some mismatches that they can exploit.

 

Memphis Grizzlies (2) beats Golden State Warriors (3), 4-3

I’m not sure in this matchup since I have no idea if Steph Curry is healthy or not and, if healthy, what he would look like.  If Curry is out, Memphis could sweep them, especially since Andrew Wiggins has been a bit rocky since the All-Star break.  I think it will be tough for Golden State to stop Ja Morant and the only two things that could stop him would be a streaky shooting night or Draymond Green switching.  If Green switches, the damage on Golden State would come down to if Jaren Jackson Jr. can hit shots (he shot 31.9% from deep this year, but has shot 34.5% since the All-Star break and 35.1% for his career).  The Grizzlies won’t be able to hide Morant defensively unless someone has an off-night (even putting him on Green wouldn’t work since he’s so smart).  While Golden State’s depth is nice, as I think Curry, Green, Klay Thompson, Wiggins, Jordan Poole, Kevon Looney, Otto Porter Jr., Andre Iguodala, Gary Payton II, Nemanja Bjelica, Juan Toscano-Anderson, and Jonathan Kuminga could all have a role, I absolutely love the depth of Memphis.  In addition to Morant, the team has Desmond Bane, Jackson, Dillon Brooks, Steven Adams, De’Anthony Melton, Kyle Anderson, Tyus Jones, and Brandon Clarke can all provide big minutes for this team.  Even if Curry is healthy, I think Memphis can beat them.

 

 

Conference Finals

Milwaukee Bucks (3) beats Miami Heat (1), 4-2

As I’ve discussed earlier, both teams are super deep, and I expect Miami to be much better on defense while Milwaukee should have the advantage offensively.  The issue with Milwaukee for their defense is that Brook Lopez was out for most of the season, and I’m honestly not sure how he will be this playoffs.  Ultimately, the reason I have Milwaukee winning is because I think they are more primed to win in the playoffs than the Heat.  While Miami is super deep, I’m not in love with any of Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, or Kyle Lowry being the offensive leader at the end of game consistently, while I love Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, as well as Jrue Holiday in select bites.

 

Phoenix Suns (1) beats Memphis Grizzlies (2), 4-2

I have discussed how much I love Memphis’ depth, but Phoenix has so many great players as well, including Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Mikal Bridges, Deandre Ayton, Jae Crowder, Cam Johnson, Cam Payne, Landry Shamet, Torrey Craig, JaVale McGee, Bismack Biyombo, and Aaron Holiday are all players who can at least contribute.  On top of that, I don’t think Memphis will stop Phoenix; Phoenix is so strong offensively that I’m not sure how Memphis hides Ja Morant.  Even if they put Morant on Crowder, I think Crowder is smart enough to make Morant a liability.  While both teams are well-coached, Monty Williams has to be one of the best coaches in the league right now.

 

 

NBA Finals

Phoenix Suns beats Milwaukee Bucks, 4-2

As I’ve discussed several things that I like about each teams in the past sections, I will focus on why I think Phoenix will in in this matchup.  Milwaukee beat Phoenix last year, but there are four major changes.  The one I think is most important is that the Suns’ players are a year older and wiser, as I think Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, and Cam Johnson are all going to be better with the additional experience, meaning they might not need to be as reliant on Chris Paul.  One that’s almost as important is that they now have more depth in big guys.  Last year, Ayton got into foul trouble at times, but the minutes with Frank Kaminsky will now be filled by JaVale McGee and Bismack Biyombo, who should give Giannis Antetokounmpo more trouble.  The third reason is that the Bucks could really use a defender who can guard forwards and centers while switching well…in other words, they will really miss P.J. Tucker in this series.  The final reason is that the Bucks were dogging it defensively for a good chunk of the season, which hasn’t actually panned out for most teams despite a narrative that this will be fine.

 

Who do you think will win the Finals?  What are you excited to watch?  Let me know in the comments!