What’s Going Right for the Boston Celtics?

On January 23^rd, I published a post prior to the Celtics’ game discussing what is wrong with them and why I lost hope in them.  At that time, they were 23-24 and just blew a game against the Trail Blazers (who had the worst defense in the NBA at that point) where they didn’t score a field goal in the final 7:21.  Since then, the team went 28-7 in the remainder of the regular season to finish 51-31 and swept the Nets in the first round of the playoffs.  Further, in 22 games since the All-Star break, they went 22-5 with a league best 12.7 Net Rating per ESPN.  Now that we’ve analyzed what has gone wrong for them to start the season, I think it’s only fair to redeem myself and evaluate what has gone right for them since.  All stats are per basketball-reference.com unless otherwise noted.

 

Their defense has been elite

A lot has been made by many writers and analysts about how good their defense has been this season.  While most have focused on how amazing their defense has been since January 1^st (which has been elite), it is still worth noting that their defense has been great all season.  Even in the midst of their early struggles, they were still great, finishing with a defensive rating of 106.9 (2^nd in the NBA).  This team had several excellent defenders, including Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart, expected All-Defensive Team member Robert Williams, Al Horford, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Grant Williams, and Daniel Theis (in the right matchups).  Their starting lineup of Smart, Brown, Tatum, Horford, and Rob Williams includes 5 players who can switch seamlessly and defend just about anybody.  It has reached the point where there’s a case to be made that Smart wasn’t even the best defender on their team despite winning Defensive Player of the Year.  Their defense was especially evident when neutralizing Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in the first round, as Durant shot just 33.3% from the field and Irving shot 44.4% (including just 37.2% after Game 1).  While there has been a focus on Tatum’s defense on Durant and Smart’s defense on Irving, several players guarded each at a high level.

 

They improved at playmaking and shooting

At the time of my prior post regarding the Celtics, I criticized their poor playmaking and shooting, which has since improved substantially.  I think the biggest part of this is due to the improved playmaking, which was a goal of Ime Udoka.  Upon trading Dennis Schröder, the team settled into a combination of having the lead playmakers of Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown.  While all of them improved their playmaking, Smart wound up with 5.9 APG compared to 2.2 TOV on the season and, more importantly, seems to have substantially improved his IQ in terms of playmaking and determining position on the court.  Per ESPN, they went from an assist rate of 59.5% prior to the All-Star break (16^th) to one of 64.4% after (6^th).  You can watch the team and see them willing to pass the ball more and also pick up what are called by some (at least in certain markets) “hockey assists” (passing to someone who gets the assist).  This has opened up the court and improved their shooting substantially.  The team jumped from shooting 34.4% pre-All-Star break (21^st) to 39.0% post-All-Star break (4^th).  After early struggles, Jayson Tatum, Marcus Smart, Al Horford, and Payton Pritchard all improved their shooting substantially, which I think was possible due to the efforts at playmaking.

 

Players have bought into Ime Udoka’s system

In my prior blog post discussing what was wrong with the team, I discussed how I thought rookie head coach Ime Udoka had lost the team.  I think it is safe to say that I was a bit harsh and impatient with that assessment, especially considering this was his first season as a head coach.  He made some decisions that seemed questionable and unpopular at that point, but ultimately, I think he won the team over by compromising a little bit, instilling the big picture, and having confidence in them.  The defensive intensity was the first to be evident, but then the offensive style (as discussed previously) aligned with what Udoka had promised prior to the season.  I also believe that the players they acquired in the trade market were more willing to buy-in than the players they gave up, which helped as well.  While I speculated whether he would finish the year with the team in my last post, I now feel as though I did prior to the season about him:  Udoka was the perfect hire for this team.

 

They made the right moves at the deadline

Prior to the season, I praised the Celtics for their depth, as I thought that there were 14 players I would trust with at least 10-15 MPG.  However, by the trade deadline, it became clear that several players were not the right fit with this team.  Dennis Schröder seemed to care more about his stats and having the ball in his hands too much, Josh Richardson wasn’t willing to make quick decisions off the ball, Enes Freedom was an atrocious defender, Romeo Langford was solid defensively (when healthy) but awful offensively, and Juancho Hernangomez (along with several others) never played.  At the trade deadline, they turned Schröder, Richardson, Langford, Freedom, Bruno Fernando, and some picks into Derrick White and Daniel Theis.  White has been an excellent fit with the team despite shooting struggles because he is decisive off the ball (which helps with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown playing so much on the ball) and is an excellent defender.  Theis plays hard and is a solid defender in spurts but has been known as a better teammate than someone like Schröder.  These moves also afforded Payton Pritchard more playing time, where he thrived from deep once in a rhythm.  Ultimately, the rotations they were able to create after the deadline were more consistent, reliable, and on-brand for Udoka’s system.

 

A big streak against some lesser opponents

While they were excellent after the All-Star break, their massive run started with a 9-game win-streak against lesser opponents.  The teams they beat in the streak included New Orleans (they were 18-31 at the time), Miami (without Jimmy Butler or Kyle Lowry), Detroit, Orlando, Brooklyn (without Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, or James Harden prior to his trade), and Atlanta (they were 26-30 at the time).  While these games were ones Boston should win, the truth is that they weren’t winning those games consistently earlier in the season, so winning 9 straight was a huge deal even if it included 6 easy opponents.  Had this streak not occurred, I’m not sure their season would have turned around.

 

Other things to note:

·         Late in the season, Robert Williams suffered a minor meniscus tear.  While he has returned and the team was able to survive without him, there is a major difference between surviving a clutch injury as the season winds down and in the first round than there is in the last couple rounds.  I don’t think their depth is good enough to sustain a major injury from here on.

·         In the past, the team had issues with extended periods of isolation ball despite struggling at it.  While they have improved substantially at team basketball, there have been instances where they revert to bad habits.

·         Jayson Tatum spent a lot of time guarding Kevin Durant in the first round; he will likely guard Khris Middleton (if he’s back, though that's not sounding promising now) and occasionally Giannis Antetokounmpo in the second round and then Jimmy Butler in the Conference Finals (since I expect the Heat will make it that far).  That is a heavy burden in addition to being the top offensive option; I hope there won’t be too much exhaustion.

·         The Celtics play at an incredibly slow pace, with 96.6 possessions per 48 minutes (24^th in the league).  This style matches that of some past defensive juggernauts (it reminds me a bit of a faster version of the mid-2000’s Pistons in a way), but might result in exhaustion if they face a fast-paced team later (like Memphis in the Finals, who is 3^rd in pace with a pace of 100.3).

·         The worst-case scenario for the Celtics to get out of the East would be facing Miami after already definitively facing Brooklyn and Milwaukee.  If they can make it out, they might be at a disadvantage against whatever team makes it out of the West.

 

 

 Bonus:  Can We Stop Talking About the Lakers?

There is a team that has probably received more attention this season than they should have that seems to be dealing with every issue imaginable.  This team has dealt with key players dealing with injuries, several role players not meeting expectations, one of their most notable players not playing at the end of games, off-court issues, their coach being on the hot seat, and missing the playoffs with a thud.  The team that I am describing here is the Houston Rockets, which suggests my greater point that the Lakers are not a special team and shouldn’t be discussed now that they’ve missed the playoffs.

Before we continue, I understand why several analysists, commentators, pundits, etc. want to continue to discuss the Lakers.  The biggest reason is because there are massive names and personalities involved with this team, as you have an advertised big 3 of LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook, as well as several veterans as role players, most the most notable being Carmelo Anthony.  On top of that, it is both humorous and juicy when a team touted as a star team ends up being disappointing and will absolutely result in more attention and clicks for that entity.  Whenever a team struggles, it gets more attention, especially if it is a team with notable players or a team in a major market, which is why so many media entities will focus on those situations (think about when the Celtics were struggling and it was fun for everyone to discuss, but suddenly very few media entities did after that).  That said, I am both bored of the discussion and don’t think it benefits the league in any way to continue this rhetoric.

I will confess that I did find it kind of funny to see the Lakers struggle for a while; part of this was due to me being a Celtics fan, part due to a team that acted arrogantly struggling, and part because it did answer the question for me if they were any good.  Now, I feel like no takes related to the Lakers have any originality because we have heard everything imaginable about them.  They are a team that went all-in with a lineup that everyone with current basketball knowledge other than names of stars (or former stars) thought was at best risky and at worst a moronic decision, and now they are stuck.  I will say that it wasn’t like this was something that was a huge shock (while I had the Lakers finishing 3^rd prior to the season, that was more due to me having no idea where they would finish and keeping consistent with a prior blog post where I said they could be one of 3 teams in the West contending than me having any faith in them; I thought prior to the season that they could finish anywhere from 1^st through 9^th or 10^th).  I know there are some writers and analysts that feel the same way about this, but the league would benefit from not making this a focus.

In recent history, especially since the pandemic, the NBA has had difficulties with viewership and filling the seats.  While there is an argument to be made that this is due to bringing “politics” into NBA, the NFL has not had a big drop off by including their obviously phony attempt to make certain people happy message of “End Racism” on the field.  The biggest thing that the NBA can benefit from is storylines of teams that are competitive and playing well, not just the struggling teams.  While there has been so much focus on the Lakers, who are eliminated from the playoffs, and the Nets, who I don’t think will make it past the first round, this will hurt their viewership when a different team wins, like how the viewership was not good when the Bucks beat the Suns in the Finals, an interesting basketball matchup.  There are several star players to watch with teams still in contention, including Phoenix’s Devin Booker and Chris Paul, Memphis’ Ja Morant, Golden State’s Steph Curry, Miami’s Jimmy Butler, Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo, Boston’s Jayson Tatum, Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid and James Harden, Dallas’ Luka Doncic, Denver’s Nikola Jokic, and Utah’s Donovan Mitchell.  Additionally, there are intriguing storylines for each team still in the playoffs.  Just to name a few:  can Chris Paul win a championship, will Golden State get healthy and figure it out, can Ja Morant lead a young team, can Milwaukee win again, who can step up for Miami at the end of games, what will vaccines requirements result against Toronto, will James Harden implode, what can Boston be if Rob Williams isn’t back from injury, and is this the last stand for Utah.  It would be beneficial for league partners to discuss these but leave it to the NBA to be a league that doesn’t recognize the way to improve their playoff viewership.

We will continue to hear about the Lakers throughout the playoffs as rumors will swirl about their future and their next coach, as well as James continuing to remain in the news cycle throughout the playoffs, but I’m done with it.  In my opinion, this is a team that isn’t in a good situation in the present and is in a horrible one for the future.  While I’m obviously not qualified for either position, I wouldn’t take a job as a coach or GM for this team due to my lack in confidence in them, yet we will continue to rave about them.  All I’m asking for is to just treat them like other teams in similar positions until the end of the playoffs:  a team that was eliminated.

 

Have you been impressed with how the Celtics have played recently?  Are you also sick of hearing about the Lakers?  Let me know in the comments!