2022 WNBA Season Predictions
The 2022 WNBA season kicks off on May 6th. While there have been reasons to be excited about the season in the past, I am extremely excited about this season due to the competitive nature of who will make the playoffs. Out of 12 teams competing for 8 playoff spots, I think that 10 have a legitimate shot to compete. In this post, I will make my predictions for what teams will make the playoffs and the winner of the championship, as well as some analysis about each team. While I have often made predictions related to which players would win each award in the past for the NBA season, I did not for the WNBA season in part because of schedule reasons and in part because I think the awards are going to be so competitive that I don’t know who will win any of them.
Regular
Season Standings
East
1. Chicago Sky
2. Connecticut Sun
3. Washington Mystics
4. New York Liberty
5. Atlanta Dream
6. Indiana Fever
West
1. Seattle Storm
2. Las Vegas Aces
3. Minnesota Lynx
4. Los Angeles Sparks
5. Phoenix Mercury
6. Dallas Wings
Playoff Seeds
1. Chicago Sky
2. Seattle Storm
3. Connecticut Sun
4. Las Vegas Aces
5. Minnesota Lynx
6. Washington Mystics
7. Los Angeles Sparks
8. Phoenix Mercury
Missing the playoffs:
· New York Liberty
· Dallas Wings
· Atlanta Dream
· Indiana Fever
Playoff
Predictions
Quarterfinals
1 Chicago beats 8 Phoenix 2-1
2 Seattle beats 7 Los Angeles 2-0
3 Connecticut beats 6 Washington 2-1
4 Las Vegas beats 5 Minnesota 2-1
Semifinals
1 Chicago beats 4 Las Vegas 3-1
2 Seattle beats 3 Connecticut 3-2
Finals
2 Seattle beats 1 Chicago 3-2
Team
Analysis
Chicago Sky
One year after winning the Championship, Chicago is looking
to prove this was not a fluke after a 16-16 record that earned them a 6 seed, something
I expect they will be able to. Signing
Candace Parker proved to be a bigger success than I would have expected, as she
fit perfectly with her elite defense, quality shooting, great rebounding,
intensity, and strong playmaking. What’s
even crazier is that there is a case to be made that Parker wasn’t their best
player last season, as that honor might go to Courtney Vandersloot, one of the
best playmakers in the game who is also a solid shooter, defender, and can be a
triple-double threat. That said, Kahleah
Copper just had a breakout playoffs, as she scored more efficiently than ever
and played better defense than normal; while I am skeptical when a player plays
there best in one year’s playoffs, she is still a good finisher and solid
rebounding wing. One season after having
the free agency signing of the year, they had another slam dunk by signing Emma
Meesseman, who is a good shooter and will be a great fit around their lineup;
while she struggled with her shot in the Wubble, she was more of a focus than
usual and had a career high in assists. Some
of their other valuable role players include Allie Quigley, an elite shooter
who can also be a secondary playmaker on occasion; Azura Stevens, a solid
finisher and quality defender who is better than most backup bigs; Ruthy Hebard,
a great defender who is also a good finisher at the rim; and Julie Allemand, an
awesome shooter. We saw what this team
could be at full strength in the playoffs, and I think they got even better.
Seattle Storm
Seattle has a good lineup this year, headlined by one of the
best big threes in the game: Breanna
Stewart, an elite player on both ends who is skilled at everything and was a
finalist for MVP despite having an off-year shooting; Sue Bird, an elite
playmaker and shooter who is one of the best WNBA players of all time; and Jewell
Loyd, an all-around talent who can score/shoot well and do a little bit of
everything and a player I consider to be among the most underrated stars in the
league. I expect Mercedes Russell, a
good defensive big, will be in the starting lineup, though they could use another
great defender in Ezi Magbegor, which leaves one wing spot in the starting
lineup. I expect this will be filled by
either Gabby Williams, an average defender and poor shooter but strong finisher
and slasher, or Briann January if they want to go smaller, an elite defender
who is the epitome of a 3-and-D player; while I expect Williams would start
more, I would start January due to her defensive chops, ability off the ball,
and low volume required. A few others
who could get playing time include Epiphanny Russell, a sharpshooting guard who
plays hard on defense, Stephanie Talbot, a sharpshooting forward who is a
talented defender, and Jantel Lavender, a solid finisher and defender on a
non-guaranteed contract looking to redeem herself after an awful season. I think this team is going to be better than
they were last season.
Connecticut Sun
The Sun are such a top-heavy team this season, but their
talent at the top is absurd. Their superstar,
2021 MVP Jonquel Jones, has resigned with the team, which gives them an efficient
scorer, very good shooter, elite defender, aggressive player on both ends, and is
now a solid playmaker. The team also had
two other All-Stars last season in DeWanna Bonner, an elite wing defender who can
switch well, rebound, be a playmaker, and score in high volume, though she had
trouble with efficiency last year, and Brionna Jones, an elite defender who
emerged as a talented scorer at a higher volume. A major addition for them is Alyssa Thomas
returning from injury, since she is an elite defender, great finisher,
excellent passer, and willing to do all the dirty work while playing work. A couple other returning role players for
them include Jasmine Thomas, a good playmaker who can also shoot and defend,
and Natisha Hiedeman, and undersized off-ball guard who can shoot and defend at
a high level. Their biggest addition was
Courtney Williams, a high-volume scoring guard who is good shooter from deep
and solid playmaker coming off a career year; I think she would be awesome for
them off the bench due to her shooting aggressiveness and defensive
liabilities. While these 7 should be
elite, they likely will need one of their younger players they have to fill in
as a valuable role player, especially if someone struggles or gets hurt.
Las Vegas Aces
The Aces are in a pretty good position in terms of chemistry. Most of the team has returned, as the only
player in their 8-person rotation that is gone is Liz Cambage. They still have 2020 MVP A’ja Wison, a high
volume scorer who is a skilled rebounder, passer, and defender; Chelsea Gray, their
point guard who is a talented playmaker and shooter, as well as a solid
defender; Kelsea Plum, the reigning Sixth Woman of the Year who is a great
shooter and high volume scorer; Jackie Young, a solid combo guard who is efficient
at the rim and a solid playmaker and rebounder, though she has been a poor
shooter; Dearica Hamby, a skilled scorer and rebounder who is aggressive
defensively, though she did have a rough season shooting; Riquna Williams, an
undersized combo guard who is strong off the ball and an excellent shooter; and
Kiah Stokes, an awesome defensive center, despite being a bit undersized. That said, losing Cambage is huge, as she is
a big who can dominate on both ends with her size and has a nice shooting
stroke. The fit with the team was always
a bit awkward and clunky so it wasn’t a surprise to see her leave in free
agency, but they still have to replace her minutes. I expect Stokes will replace her since the
team did this when Cambage had Covid, though they could also opt for Theresa
Plaisance, a solid shooter and playmaker but poor defender, or go small with
Hamby in the lineup. Since Stokes is a
non-factor on offense, I expect they would finish games with Hamby instead,
though I’m curious what a 4-guard lineup of Gray/Plum/Young/Williams would look
like paired with Wilson. Without
Cambage, expect Wilson to have a dominant year and Gray and Plum to improve
their scoring totals, but I expect their ceiling will come down to how Young
and Hamby play.
Minnesota Lynx
There are probably 5 features that define the Lynx: depth, defense, shooting, experience, and
options. While the team dealt with
several injuries last season, they still have several players who earned a role
on this team. Their two biggest stars
are Napheesa Collier, who struggled with efficiency last season but still scored
and rebounded a lot while playing excellent defense, and Sylvia Fowles, one of
the greatest WNBA players of all time who is the reigning Defensive Player of
Year while scoring and rebounding a ton.
They also have an awesome third best player in Kayla McBride, an awesome
shooter who is a solid defensive guard. They
have a lot of depth in shooting and defense, as they have quality shooters in Damiris
Dantas, Aerial Powers, Bridget Carleton, Rachel Banham, and possibly Angel
McCoughtry, and quality defenders in McCoughtry, Natalie Achonwa, Dantas,
Powers, Carleton, and Jessica Shephard.
I think the two biggest x-factors for this team are McCoughtry and
Odyssey Sims. McCoughtry is an excellent
defender and high-volume scorer who had a breakout shooting season in 2020 but missed
almost all of 2019 and 2021 due to injuries, which isn’t the best sign
considering she is 35 this year. Sims is
likely going to fill in the role of starting point guard that is available with
the release of Layshia Clarendon; while she is a good playmaker, she is an
inefficient scorer and a below average defender. In order for the team to top the West, both of
these players will need to be healthy and playing at their peak.
Washington Mystics
In an alternative universe where injuries are not a thing, this
team would be a lock to make the playoffs and be a lock of a team. The biggest question comes from Elena Delle
Donne; there is no doubt that she is one of the most dominant scorers and
shooters basketball has ever seen, but she also has only played 3 games in the
last 2 seasons after sitting out of the Wubble due to health concerns and dealing
with injuries last season. That said, I
think that she should be the be healthier this year. Despite Tina Charles not getting to suit up
with Delle Done for more than a few games, the Mystics might have found a great
sidekick in Ariel Atkins, another great shooter who seems more suited to take
on the role of being a second or third option.
Another massive return for them would be Alysha Clark, one of the best
shooters in the game who was also emerging as a dominant 3-and-D player prior
to her foot injury; it is sounding like she is making substantial progress. I think the biggest x-factor for this team is
Myisha Hines-Allen, who was an All-WNBA player for them in 2020, but had a
rough year in efficiency last season; I wonder if she can return to her numbers
from the Wubble if she isn’t as much of a focus. Some other valuable role players for them
include Natasha Cloud, an awesome playmaker and defender; Elizabeth Williams, a
solid finisher and defender; Shatori Walker-Kimbrough, an incredible finisher
and slasher for a guard; and Shakira Austin, a rookie who had stretches of
dominance in the paint. If everything
goes right, this team could be playing late in the playoffs; if Delle Done is
injured or not fully recovered, this team will likely miss the playoffs again.
Los Angeles Sparks
This team went from last in the Western Conference to
competing this year. In general, I
cannot express how excited I am about watching Nneka Ogwumike and Liz Cambage
together; both are forces in the paint and strong in the midrange, can shoot from
deep (though neither takes a lot), are awesome defenders in the paint, are
great rebounders, and are both good playmakers for bigs (especially Ogwumike). On top of that, the fit between the two
should be better than that of Cambage and A’ja Wilson since Ogwumike takes
fewer shots (and is more efficient at the looks she gets). Kristi Toliver was an All-Star in 2019, but the
35-year-old had a rough year last year; that said, she still provides value as
a playmaker and occasional shooter. Brittney
Sykes is one of the best defenders in the league and is also a solid finisher,
but I’m not sure how much room there will be in the paint with the addition of
Cambage. Beyond that, Amanda Zahui B. is
an excellent defender and finisher who will likely move to the bench, Katie Lou
Samuelson is rapidly improving into an efficient scorer who can also defend,
and Jordin Canada is a great playmaker. There
are also some other players who have higher upside though also have lowers
floors: Chiney Ogwumike is a 2-time All-Star
who dominates both end in the paint when healthy but has dealt with injuries throughout
her career; Jasmine Walker tore her ACL last year 2 games into her rookie year
after being the 7th pick; and Chennedy Carter is a high-volume
scorer who didn’t play a ton of defense and struggle with efficiency at
points. If everything works out, they
could make a run, but I’m not totally sold they have it all unless someone
improves substantially.
Phoenix Mercury
After several notable moves in the offseason, it is possible
that this season could be known for what could have been for Phoenix, as two
players are not expected to start the season with the team. While Britney Griner’s arrest in Russia has
been well-publicized, Kia Nurse’s injury cannot go understated. If they don’t get Griner back, they will lose
a dominant force on both ends in the paint who can also pass out of the post
and shoot. Nurse is a quality role
player who has developed a jumper and is a good team defender. It also should be noted that the legendary
Diana Taurasi has also dealt with injuries in the last few seasons, something
to watch for the 40-year-old, though she is still a great scorer, among the
more aggressive, elite at getting to and finishing at the line, and incredibly
smart (something I don’t think she gets enough credit for). They will bring back Skylar Diggins-Smith, an
excellent point guard who never gets injured and fits perfectly with the
offense due to her ability to play on or off the ball, and Brianna Turner, an
elite defensive forward who can be trusted in switches and has a high IQ on
defense. Two additions they have are
Tina Charles, an elite offensive center who is coming off a career year
offensively and has added a jumper to her arsenal, though her defense hasn’t
been great the last few years, and Diamond DeShields, an aggressive scorer and
solid defender. While I would love to
have DeShields off the bench due to her inefficient shooting numbers and her
habits of looking for her own shot, I think they will start her out of
necessity. The team beyond that is pretty
thin; while Sophie Cunningham is an awesome shooter and Shey Peddy can provide
some solid minutes, this team’s ceiling is capped pretty hard without Griner. I can’t say this is something I wish on
rookie coach Vanessa Nygaard.
New York Liberty
Last year, the Liberty snuck into the playoffs, something
that they are striving to do this year. Young
star Sabrina Ionescu had an exciting as a triple-double threat who was able to
make players around her better, though she was dealing with some ankle injuries;
being healthy should result in some improvements in shooting and defense. While there was a drop-off in efficiency from
the Wubble, Betnijah Laney had an All-Star season and showed that she can be a
high-volume scorer and awesome playmaker, making it more difficult when the
ball is out of Ionescu’s hands. While Natasha
Howard was limited to just 13 games last season, she was an efficient scorer
and continued to prove that she is a good defender. They have several great shooters who can be utilized
by the strong playmaking of their stars, including Rebecca Allen, Sami Whitcomb,
Jocelyn Willoughby, and Stefanie Dolson.
That said, I have some doubts about their defense, as the only defenders
I feel confident trusting at this point and have seen perform at a high level
at points are Howard, Allen, and Whitcomb.
Two x-factors on this team are seeing the growth that Michaela Onyenwere
can provide in her second season and how Asia Durr (AD) looks in their first
season since 2019 after dealing with effects from Covid. While they collapsed late in the season, new
coach Sandy Brondello will likely be able to keep that from happening again;
the question is what they will be leading up to the end of the season. Even if they miss the playoffs, they are
going in the right direction.
Dallas Wings
Dallas made the playoffs for the first time since 2018 and
they will at least compete to end up back there. Their most notable star is Arike Ogunbowale,
a high-volume scorer who went from being pretty efficient in college to being
pretty inefficient in the WNBA; that said, her 3-point shooting has improved though
while her low 2-point shooting might have been a fluke. Satou Sabally was also an All-Star last year,
as she is a solid all-around offensive player who is improving as a shooter. They have several role players who range from
decent to elite shooters, including Allisha Gray, Isabelle Harrison, Kayla
Thornton, Marina Mabrey, Moriah Jefferson, Tyasha Harris, and rookie Veronica
Burton, which will help Ogunbowale’s game.
The biggest issue with this team will likely be their defense, as the
defenders I somewhat trust on this team are Harrison and the newly acquired Teaira
McCowan. I think a big x-factor on this
team could be Charli Collier; she was the number one pick in the 2021 Draft but
struggled at points during her rookie season.
There were glimpses of her skills as a rebounder and defender in the
paint, but I expect she could take a leap this year considering how athletic she
is. This team has so many young players
that are improving and are great athletes, so this team should be fun to watch. That said, multiple teams will likely
improve, which could force them to deal with their struggles early, something
that will be tougher for a young team.
Atlanta Dream
I don’t know how to best sugarcoat this other than by saying
that the Atlanta Dream are one of the two teams that will likely not be
competing for the playoffs to start the season.
There are still reasons to be excited about them, with most of them involving
Rhyne Howard. Howard is an elite scorer
who can also shoot, though she is also an incredible defender and solid
playmaker. She might have some struggles
adjusting initially, but she is a smart player as well, so I think she can overcome
shooting woes. Some players who could
make this team be better than I expect include Tiffany Hayes, an aggressive scorer
coming off a career year from deep; Erica Wheeler, a solid shooter and good
playmaker who was an All-Star in 2019; Nia Coffey, an elite shooter who can
defend some; Cheyenne Parker, a good scorer who is a solid defender; and Monique
Billings, a solid finisher who plays the glass hard. As one would expect from a rebuilding team,
they are also have some former 1st round picks who have potential,
including Aari McDonald (3rd pick in 2021) and Megan Walker (9th
pick in 2020), as well as rookies Naz Hillmon and Kristy Wallace. While they are still rebuilding, I think that
this season could show their foundation is a solid start.
Indiana Fever
I think there is one way to explain the Fever’s current
status: while some teams will not have
any rookies, Indiana could have 5, including 4 first round picks. These rookies include NaLyssa Smith, the 2nd
pick out of Baylor who is dominant at both ends in the paint and has potential
to develop a jumper; Emily Engstler, the 4th pick out of Syracuse
who is an awesome defensive forward with some ability as a shooter and passer; Lexie
Hull, the 6th pick out of Stanford, a solid off-ball guard who can
shoot, defend, and rebound some; Queen Egbo, the 10th pick out of
Baylor who is a freak athlete who can dominate the paint on defense; and Destanni
Henderson, the 20th pick out of South Carolina who is a smart point
guard and playmaker who can also shoot. If
you want established players, the two for you to watch on this team would be Kelsey
Mitchell, a solid shooter and aggressive scorer, and Danielle Robinson, an
aggressive scorer who is the only player on this roster currently above the age
of 30. Besides them, maybe Tiffany Mitchell
can make a jump and become a more efficient scorer, and possibly one of Alaina
Coates, Alanna Smith, or Victoria Vivians can live up to their draft potential,
but that feels like a stretch.
Ultimately, this feels like an early part of a rebuild.
What are you looking forward to this WNBA season? Who do you think will win it all? Let me know in the comments!
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