2022 WNBA Playoffs Predictions
After one of the most chaotic WNBA seasons and finishes to any season I have ever seen (entering the final game, the top seed was still in play for 2 teams and the last 2 playoff spots were in play for 4 teams), the regular season has ended, and the WNBA playoffs are starting! I consider this year to be extremely exciting since I don’t believe there is one definitive frontrunner since different sources would point to different factors (Vegas ironically says Las Vegas, depth says Chicago, most analytics say Connecticut, experience gives Seattle a slight edge, and the logic of best defense goes to Washington), making it quite interesting to see what happens. In this post, I will give my prediction for each round and a player to watch. What I will say is that it I expect every series after the first round to be extremely competitive and exciting so there are a lot of directions this can go.
Standings
1. Las Vegas Aces (26-10)
2. Chicago Sky (26-10)
3. Connecticut Sun (25-11)
4. Seattle Storm (22-14)
5. Washington Mystics (22-14)
6. Dallas Wings (18-18)
7. New York Liberty (16-20)
8. Phoenix Mercury (15-21)
Predictions
Round 1
Las Vegas Aces (1) vs. Phoenix Mercury (8)
Now that Phoenix is without Brittney Griner (in Russia),
Skylar Diggins-Smith (contract suspended), and Diana Taurasi (injury), Phoenix
will be in a bit of trouble. The Mercury
will likely rely on Sophie Cunningham, one of the best shooters in the WNBA
though she is best suited to be a supporting cast member, and Diamond
DeShields, a high volume but inefficient scorer, to go against an elite
offense. As for Vegas, they have two MVP
candidates in Kelsey Plum, an elite offensive guard who can seemingly score
from anywhere, and all-around star A’ja Wilson, a versatile forward who had her
best season yet (even better than her 2020 MVP season in my opinion), as well
as breakout All-Star Jackie Young (who did struggle with scoring consistently
later in the season), 3-time All-Star and brilliant point guard Chelsea Gray,
and the criminally underrated defensive minded forward Dearica Hamby. Two things to watch with Vegas: they don’t have the depth or defense that
they have had in the past, though their starting lineup is incredible.
Player to watch:
Sophie Cunningham had a breakout year for Phoenix this season,
especially after being added to the starting lineup out of necessity; since
June 25th, she averaged 15.6 PPG on 46.2 FG%/40.9 3P%/84.8 FT%. While she is a bit streaky and struggled
mightily when facing bigger lineups (she was horrible against Connecticut), Vegas
is a league average defense (6th in defensive rating) and most
commonly uses a small ball lineup with Wilson at center. Especially if everyone else is struggling and
Vegas allows Cunningham to take a lot of shots, expect her to score a lot…and
potentially miss a lot due to exhaustion by the end of the series.
Prediction: 2-0
Las Vegas
Chicago
Sky (2) vs. New York Liberty (7)
Let me just say this first:
New York is a really weird team, since they have superstar Sabrina
Ionescu, who can seemingly create offense out of nothing, and All-Star Natasha
Howard, yet had one of the worst offenses in the game (9th in
offensive rating) and an average defense (6th in defensive rating)
despite the only defender I actually trust being Howard. Chicago makes much more sense: last year’s playoff star Kahleah Copper had
her best year yet and improved on her efficiency, Candace Parker continued her
illustrious career while being a menace defensively, Courtney Vandersloot
continued to show why she’s one of the best point guards of all time, Emma
Meesseman fit perfectly, and shooters like Allie Quigley, Azure Stevens, and
Rebekah Gardner worked off the ball and did enough defensively. Ultimately, Chicago finished in the top-4 in
both offensive and defensive rate and has the veteran team to pull this out
easily. That said, I expect New York
will win one game solely because Ionescu will go crazy.
Player to watch:
While most would say Ionescu here, I am going to say Courtney
Vandersloot could be a gamechanger for Chicago.
While her assist numbers went down a bit due to the addition of Meesseman
and the added playmaking duties for Copper and Parker, she is one of the best
players in the clutch, per WNBA’s stats site.
While playing a lot of clutch minutes, she had a net rating of 25.6, a
27.5 USG%, a 33.3 AST%, and a 55.7 eFG%.
If any game is close, she is the one to go to if you want to control the
game and to have her take the big shot.
Prediction:
2-1 Chicago
Connecticut
Sun (3) vs. Dallas Wings (6)
Without Dallas’ star and leading scorer Arike Ogunbowale
(out for the first round), this series will likely not be a particularly
exciting one. While not the most
efficient, Ogunbowale is improving as a shooter and takes a ton of shots,
something the offense is built around.
They finished 4th in offensive rating, something that I
expect they will struggle to replicate against Connecticut, who finished 2nd
in the league in defensive rating. This
is by no means an attempt to discredit the impact of Marina Mabrey and Allisha
Gray’s shooting, which is how they would need to beat Connecticut, but no
Ogunbowale and the potential of not having Satou Sabally back from an injury
puts them in a tough situation. As for
Connecticut, I expect they won’t have a ton of issues defending the paint in
this series given their dominant combination of Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner,
and Jonquel Jones in the frontcourt while Brionna Jones comes off the
bench. Even while Courtney Williams and
Natisha Hiedemann aren’t as elite as the starting frontcourt, both were good
defenders for Connecticut. The main
issue for them is that there are points where their offense will struggle since
they can get stagnant, something that might cost them a game.
Player to watch:
As much as I want to say Alyssa Thomas, Marina Mabrey has finished the
season on a tear for Dallas, as she has averaged 20.9 PPG, 5.1 APG, and 4.0 RPG
while shooting 48.2 FG%/41.5 3P%/75.0 FT% over the final 7 games. She started the season out hot before being a
bit inconsistent in the middle. While
she will have her work cut out for her against Connecticut’s defense, she will
likely be the focal point of Dallas’ offense; if her 3 is going down, that
could sway the series a bit.
Prediction:
2-0 Connecticut
Seattle
Storm (4) vs. Washington Mystics (5)
I really think this could be a competitive and exciting
series if everything goes right, but I have reservations about one team. Washington is such a well-constructed team, as
it is built around Elena Delle Donne, one of the best scorers and shooters in
WNBA history who had an amazing comeback year in her first full season since
2019, while being surrounded by Ariel Atkins, an awesome shooter and defender,
Natasha Cloud, one of the best playmakers and an improving defender, Alysha
Clark, an awesome defender and finisher despite being undersized at forward, awesome
rookie on both ends in the paint Shakira Austin, and some 3-and-D bench options
in guard Shatori Walker-Kimbrough and forward Myisha Hines-Allen, resulting in
the best defense though 7th best offensive rating (as well as
slowest pace in the league). Seattle has
several players who fit in well theoretically with superstar Breanna Stewart, legendary
point guard Sue Bird, star combo guard Jewell Lloyd, and several quality role
players in Tina Charles (who was in All-Star consideration while with Phoenix),
Ezi Magbegor, Gabby Williams, Briann January, and Stephanie Talbot. The issues that I have with this team are
that Bird has not been good in the second half of the season, Charles has been solid
but I’d prefer Magbegor play over her (which hasn’t happened a ton), Williams
can’t hit a 3, and January has been pretty bad this year. Ultimately, Stewart and Lloyd should be enough
to win one game, but I love Washington’s roster build much more than that of
Seattle for this matchup; that said, if Washington struggles with injuries, this
series will be all Seattle.
Player to watch:
There are several to keep an eye on, including Sue Bird, Shakira Austin,
Alysha Clark, Tina Charles, and the health of Elena Delle Donne, but I am
curious about how Seattle will defend Natasha Cloud. She is an amazing playmaker and good finisher
(63.0% within 3 feet of the basket), but she’s taken more shots from 3 (31.9%) and
3-10 feet (32.3%) despite being putrid in both locations. If I were Seattle, I would put my weakest
defender (probably Bird at this point) and give her a tad bit of room while
defending the players to pass to, though I’d change the scheme if Washington is
able to find the open player due to giving her room. Something to note is that she is a good free
throw shooter (82.4%, albeit on 2.7 attempts per game); if she gets some more
calls, that could help her out. The
other thing to watch is how she is after dealing with an injury on the final
game of the season.
Prediction:
2-1 Washington
Semifinals
Las Vegas Aces (1) vs. Washington Mystics (5)
If this matchup happens, we will see the best offensive team
(Las Vegas) face the best defensive team (Washington), which will be intriguing
to see. Normally I would say that the
better defense would be the one to watch, but there are enough question marks
for Washington on both ends in this matchup that makes this prediction
impossible. Vegas was one of the best
teams from deep (26.4 3PA, 36.1 3P%, ranking 3rd and 1st
respectively), while also shooting 52.0% from 2 (2nd), whereas
Washington only shot 33.8% from 3 (10th) and 49.1% from 2 (6th). Washington already has a smaller lineup, as 3
starters are shorter than 6’, with only Elena Delle Donne and Shakira Austin
being tall enough to give A’ja Wilson trouble in the paint. This lineup would give them 3 non-shooters,
and while Austin could be replaced by Shatori Walker-Kimbrough and Myisha
Hines-Allen, that would just make them smaller.
I think that Vegas has several offensive options, as Kelsey Plum and
Wilson are both superstars on both ends (with Wilson developing a 3 as well),
while Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, and Riquana Williams can shoot from seemingly
anywhere. Vegas also plays at a fast
pace while Washington plays at a slow pace, something that I think would impact
most Washington players outside of Delle Donne, who is an elite scorer. I’d be shocked if this series goes 5 games.
Player to watch:
I think seeing how A’ja Wilson reacts to Washington is going to be
incredibly exciting. Washington has a
pretty small lineup and is taller than most of their regular rotation players
except Delle Donne and Austin. While
Austin is an awesome defender, she is a rookie and will likely have her
struggles at times guarding one of the league’s best players, especially if Wilson
steps out a bunch. They could always try
Delle Donne on Wilson and move Austin to Dearica Hamby, something that might
make sense given Delle Donne’s defensive skill and Hamby’s strengths closer to
the paint, but I’m still not in love with this idea either. Ultimately, Washington’s best bet might be to
focus on everyone else and pray when Wilson has the ball, which would allow her
to score a lot.
Prediction:
3-1 Las Vegas
Chicago
Sky (2) vs. Connecticut Sun (3)
In a rematch of last season’s semifinals, Chicago comes in
as the deepest team in the league and Connecticut enters as a top-heavy team
with a sneaky amount of depth. Chicago
led the WNBA in 2P% (54.2%) while Connecticut finished 3rd (50.0%),
which will be interesting to see since both teams are good at defending the
paint. Further, neither team took a ton
of 3’s, though Connecticut scored from a higher clip at a lower rate (35.4% vs.
34.5%). Ultimately, what winning this
series will come down to is who can defend the paint, especially since neither
team is consistent enough from deep and both teams have several players who can
score there. For Connecticut, I consider
their starting frontcourt to be one of the best defensive units in the game, as
you have Alyssa Thomas, Jonquel Jones, and DeWanna Bonner, three exceptional
athletes who are incredible defenders; they also have Brionna Jones who can
defend off the bench and starting guards who are solid in Courtney Williams and
Natisha Hiedeman. For Chicago, Candace
Parker is still one of the best defenders in the game and Emma Meesseman is
seriously underrated at that end, but the rest of their starting lineup isn’t
quite as good; Kahleah Copper is solid defensively but has inconsistencies,
Courtney Vandersloot is decent, and Allie Quigley isn’t stellar (though it is
worth noting that they have 2 good bench defenders in Azura Stevens and Rebekah
Gardner). I think this will be a close
series, but I trust the defensive depth of Connecticut more at the end of a
game.
Player to watch:
I expect this series will be a bit of a defensive slugfest, making this
the perfect series for Alyssa Thomas to make her mark. There is a serious case for her as the
Defensive Player of the Year, especially since she led the league with 2.7 DWS. I personally would start her on either Copper
or Meesseman since I think they would have the biggest impact offensively, but
I would also consider putting her on Candace Parker in a game where she is
playing well. Connecticut has a good
enough defense that they can easily switch and have Thomas thrive without being
in a mismatch. What happens if they
switch enough where Thomas is guarding Vandersloot and Chicago cannot score on several
possessions like this? Game over.
Prediction:
3-2 Connecticut
Finals
Las Vegas Aces (1) vs. Connecticut Sun (3)
Let me start out by saying this: I do not like having the team I root for winning
the Championship since I become a bit neurotic for no reason. This will be an interesting series because
both teams had incredible net ratings (Connecticut led the way with +10.2,
Vegas was 2nd with +7.9) and have a lot of playoff experience. While Vegas has an amazing offense that
cannot be messed with, I have said it before and will say it again: Connecticut’s front court defense is like
nothing I have ever seen (it also is worth noting that Jonquel Jones, Alyssa
Thomas, and DeWanna Bonner are also all incredibly skilled offensive players as
well). I think their defense should give
A’ja Wilson some trouble now that Vegas is going with their smallest starting
lineup in years with Wilson at the 5.
While Wilson has gotten better against bigger players now that she has
added a 3 into her game, it will be a long series for her. In their starting lineup, I also expect
Dearica Hamby to struggle at points in the paint, leaving superstar Kelsey
Plum, Jackie Young (who has been a bit inconsistent in the second half), and Chelsea
Gray (though she also is at her best inside the arc) to carry a lot of the load
at the end of games. The craziest part
is that these 3 are still potentially good enough to win a championship. The thing to watch Connecticut is how good
they are offensively in the paint, since Jones, Thomas, Bonner, and backup
center Brionna Jones are all awesome. Something
I am interested in is how Courtney Williams will do, especially since she is
better at mismatches, especially with smaller lineups. I don’t want to predict Connecticut will win
since that’s who I root for, but if they played in Miami, for instance, I would
predict them.
Player to watch:
In order for Vegas to beat Connecticut, they will have to outshoot them
and beat their defense by nailing a bunch of 3’s, meaning their key to winning
starts with Kelsey Plum. She shot 42.0%
from 3 on 7.5 attempts per game and can shoot them from anywhere. She also shot 50% from 2, meaning you can’t
allow her to get past you if you’re a defender, making it more challenging. Plum can score off the dribble and is a smart
off-ball mover, which makes her a priority to watch. She has also improved substantially as a
playmaker (5.1 APG). While there are
several amazing offensive players on Vegas, Plum always has to be on your mind
if you want to win.
Prediction:
3-2 Connecticut
Who do you think will win the Finals? What matchups are you excited for? Let me know in the comments!
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