2022 WNBA Finals Prediction

Note:  This post was originally posted on the Feeling Groupie blog page by mistake; I have moved this over here


The WNBA Finals have arrived and somehow the exact series I predicted is occurring, as the 1 seed Las Vegas Aces dominated their way to this point and the Connecticut Sun fought off a couple tough series to make it here.  While I previously gave my prediction prior to the season, I have 25 things I find interesting related to this series, organized by both teams, Las Vegas, and Connecticut.


  1. This series might be the perfect analytics matchup, as Connecticut led the way in net rating (+10.2) and Vegas was second (+7.9).  The interesting thing is that while Connecticut is 2nd in offensive rating and defensive rating, Vegas topped the league in offensive rating while finishing 6th in defensive rating.
  2. Vegas played at the fastest pace on offense during the regular season (80.6). Normally it makes sense to slow the game down since Connecticut was 6th (78.5), but they have often struggled in the half court when slowing it down.  I think they have more success if they don’t even bother worrying about what pace Vegas plays with and focus more on not allowing fast break opportunities.
  3. The difference in this series could be 3-point shooting.  In the regular season, Vegas lead the way at 36.1% with the 3rd most attempts and specifically are operating with a smaller lineup to do this.  Connecticut shot 35.4% from deep, but did so on fewer attempts, finishing 11th in the league.  If Vegas goes on a hot streak from deep (as they’ve done multiple times in the past, Connecticut might not be able to keep up.
  4. I find it interesting how the two deeper teams in the Semifinals both lost and the teams without as much depth are in the Finals.  That said, Connecticut is deeper than Vegas, especially if Dearica Hamby isn’t ready to play a full role; so far, only 6 Vegas players have averaged more than 10 MPG, all playing over 20.
  5. While I think it is easy to figure that Kelsey Plum or A’ja Wilson should take the final shot for Vegas, there isn’t one definitive player on Connecticut, though the clearest answer would be Jonquel Jones.  There are many situations where it’s nice having multiple consistent scorers, but not having one definitive player can have its downside.
  6. Something interesting to watch is that both teams get to the line a lot but neither team fouls a ton; with fewer fouls called in the playoffs, I wonder if the teams will adjust.
  7. When discussing Vegas, the first player that has to be discussed is 2022 MVP and Defensive Player of the Year A’ja Wilson.  In the past, I would say this matchup is a horrible one for her since she used to struggle against teams with multiple bigs, but she has added a 3-point shot in her arsenal now and shot 37.3% from deep during the season.  That said, she has only shot 22.2% from deep in the playoffs and will face her biggest challenge in likely having to deal with multiple bigs at the same time.  This series could be her most difficult yet, but succeeding on both ends and winning will make it difficult to argue that she isn’t the best player in the league.
  8. Kelsey Plum is the most important player for Vegas in this series.  Despite struggling from deep in the playoffs (28.2%), she is one of the best shooters in the league who can score from anywhere (42.0 3P%, 50.0 2P% in the regular season).  She led the team in points per game this past season and will need to shoot at a high clip to beat Connecticut’s paint defense.
  9. Chelsea Gray is on an unreal shooting streak, as she is averaging 24.0 PPG on 59.5 3P% and 64.8 2P%.  She is taking more attempts than normal and is shooting and a historic rate.  While it’s been a small sample size and they haven’t faced a defense quite like Connecticut’s, stopping her will be paramount if Connecticut wants to win.
  10. Something I am watching for is the number of attempts Jackie Young takes.  After earning Most Improved Player and breaking out as an All-Star this past season, her shot attempts dropped drastically once the playoffs rolled around.  Part of that is due to Chelsea Gray’s hot streak, but she is still shooting 68.8% from deep (though on 2.7 attempts per game).  She is only shooting 37.5% from 2 on many more attempts (5.3), which is something concerning to keep an eye on.
  11. The biggest question mark for Vegas is the health of Dearica Hamby.  They are a league average defense with her, and I think there’s a case to be made that she’s their best defender.  With her, they have had the opportunity to play small, have her switch on to multiple defenders, and be smart with moving and cutting off the ball.  If she’s not healthy, I don’t know how this team consistently defends.
  12. Kiah Stokes has been starting in lieu of Dearica Hamby out of necessity, but I don’t love that rotation for them.  While having an additional big might be nice to combat Connecticut’s big lineup, she is largely a nonfactor offensively and has moments where she gets into foul trouble.  Even though she’s smaller, I’d prefer playing Hamby if possible.
  13. Riquna Williams is like a super sub for them as she can shoot from deep consistently (36.7% in the playoffs, 36.6% in the regular season) and is smart off the ball, but something to watch is how her shooting inside the arc has cratered (dropping from 44.0% to 27.3%).  I expect this won’t be aided against Connecticut’s defense.
  14. I wonder if we will see more playing time from Iliana Rupert and Theresa Plaisance.  While the benches typically shrink by this point in a playoff run, both are solid shooters (36.8% and 34.8% from 3, respectively) whose minutes have dropped below 10 MPG in the playoffs.  I think 3-point shooting is what could change this series, so I wonder if they receive more playing time than they have received thus far.
  15. Connecticut’s success starts and ends on both ends with what I consider their 3-headed monster at forward/center with Jonquel Jones, Alyssa Thomas, and DeWanna Bonner.  All 3 are so strong, good at finishing, very skilled, and are exceptional defenders.  While Vegas typically uses a smaller lineup, I’m more intrigued how this will work defensively when keeping these 3 out of the paint.
  16. Jonquel Jones won MVP in 2021 and while her scoring is a bit down from last season, she is a force to be reckoned with on both ends.  She is awesome at finishing, especially on tough shots, can shoot, can pass some, and is an awesome defender.  She is such a complete player and is so athletic that she is one of the best players in the league.
  17. Alyssa Thomas might be my favorite player currently playing in the WNBA.  She is so strong, is physical on both ends, and is also Connecticut’s best playmaker, allowing her to practically operate as a point guard.  She is an absolute marvel to watch and now can showcase why there was a serious case she should have won Defensive Player of the Year.
  18. DeWanna Bonner is stronger than you would expect and is an awesome defender, but she is a streaky shooter (32.9% from deep in the regular season, 32.4% in the playoffs).  She has also been streaky inside the paint in the playoffs, though that can happen when facing Chicago.
  19. It has to be said that Courtney Williams is having an atrocious playoff run as a shooter; she’s only shooting 40.7% from the field on 25.0 3P% and 43.5 2P% (both down from the regular season).  There is a certain aspect of it that seems to be bad luck since she is missing several shots that are good looks for her, which I still want her taking.  That said, she still is confident, competitive, and happy the team is having success; I wouldn’t want her any other way since that is when she’s at her best.  She has also played hard on defense, where she will be needed more than ever this series.
  20. Brionna Jones just won Sixth Woman of the Year and I love her in that role.  While she is a good defender, she is so much stronger offensively and is able to focus on that while exploiting opposing bench defenses.  She is talented enough to play at the end of games if needed, but their defense is stronger with the 3-headed monster described above.  Having Jones off the bench makes it so teams cannot get away with a weak paint defense at any point and gives Connecticut’s bigs the opportunity to get additional rest Vegas is unable to grant.
  21. There is a case to be made that Natasha Hiedeman is the best shooter in the series.  I know that may seem insane considering Kelsey Plum is also there, but she is so consistent and is shooting at around the same clip that she was during the season above 41% (albeit in almost 2 fewer attempts per game).  She is a good player on the ball, but I love her off the ball so much because she is such a good shooter off-ball and is smart about where to move.
  22. For most of the season, Jasmine Thomas’ presence was missed due to losing the depth of the additional ball handler.  Late in the season, they picked up Odyssey Sims, who has fit in naturally off the bench.  While her stats and shooting splits don’t jump off the page, their biggest need was someone who could run the offense off the bench, which Sims is doing well in the playoffs.
  23. DiJonai Carrington has so much confidence for someone who isn’t an efficient scorer off the bench, but she is really smart at moving off the ball.  It seems to be paying off in the playoffs more than ever since she is shooting 61.1% from 2; if Vegas gets a bit tired from playing so many minutes, I expect she will be able to exploit it for some points.
  24. If Jasmine Thomas wasn’t injured this season, this series might be a lot different.  She is such a good point guard who is smart off the ball and always seems cool, calm, and collected.  I believe having her healthy might make this a sweep for Connecticut.
  25. I think the two most likely results are that either Vegas wins easily, or it is a contested series.  While possible Connecticut wins easily, Vegas is so good at shooting that I don’t believe they will go totally cold for 3 straight games.

 

 

Prediction:  Connecticut in 5

 

Who do you think will win the WNBA Playoffs?  Who are you looking forward to watching?  Let me know in the comments!

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