2022-23 NBA Predictions
These are my predictions for the 2022 NBA Season. In this post, I have my predictions for standings, playoff results, and awards, as well as my analysis of each team. These are just my projections; I care more about the general idea of how each team plays than the awards and playoff matchups because everyone tends to be wrong with these, especially me. In the analysis section, I include an x-factor per team; with these, I focused on one player who isn’t a star but can be an important player for the team.
Projected
Standings
East
1. Milwaukee Bucks
2. Philadelphia 76ers
3. Boston Celtics
4. Toronto Raptors
5. Miami Heat
6. Brooklyn Nets
7. Atlanta Hawks
8. Cleveland Cavaliers
9. New York Knicks
10. Chicago Bulls
11. Washington Wizards
12. Detroit Pistons
13. Indiana Pacers
14. Orlando Magic
15. Charlotte Hornets
West
1. Minnesota Timberwolves
2. Golden State Warriors
3. Phoenix Suns
4. Memphis Grizzlies
5. Denver Nuggets
6. Los Angeles Clippers
7. New Orleans Pelicans
8. Dallas Mavericks
9. Los Angeles Lakers
10. Sacramento Kings
11. Portland Trail Blazers
12. Oklahoma City Thunder
13. Utah Jazz
14. Houston Rockets
15. San Antonio Spurs
Playoff
Predictions
Play-In
Cleveland Cavaliers (8) beats Atlanta Hawks (7)
New York Knicks (9) beats Chicago Bulls (10)
New Orleans Pelicans (7) beats Dallas Mavericks (8)
Los Angeles Lakers (9) beats Sacramento Kings (10)
Atlanta Hawks (7) beats New York Knicks (9)
Dallas Mavericks (8) beats Los Angeles Lakers (9)
1st round
Milwaukee Bucks (1) beats Atlanta Hawks (8) 4-1
Philadelphia 76ers (2) beats Cleveland Cavaliers (7) 4-1
Boston Celtics (3) beats Brooklyn Nets (6) 4-2
Toronto Raptors (4) beats Miami Heat (5) 4-2
Minnesota Timberwolves (1) beats Dallas Mavericks (8) 4-2
Golden State Warriors (2) beats New Orleans Pelicans (7) 4-1
Phoenix Suns (3) beats Los Angeles Clippers (6) 4-3
Memphis Grizzlies (4) beats Denver Nuggets (5) 4-1
Conference Semifinals
Milwaukee Bucks (1) beats Toronto Raptors (4) 4-2
Boston Celtics (3) beats Philadelphia 76ers (2) 4-3
Memphis Grizzlies (4) beats Minnesota Timberwolves (1) 4-2
Golden State Warriors (2) beats Phoenix Suns (3) 4-1
Conference Finals
Milwaukee Bucks (1) beats Boston Celtics (3) 4-3
Memphis Grizzlies (4) beats Golden State Warriors (2) 4-3
NBA Finals
Milwaukee Bucks (1) beats Memphis Grizzlies (4) 4-1
Awards
Predictions
MVP
1. Joel Embiid, PHI
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL
3. Stephen Curry, GSW
4. Nikola Jokic, DEN
5. Luka Doncic, DAL
ROY
1. Paolo Banchero, ORL
2. Keegan Murray, SAC
3. Bennedict Mathurin, IND
4. Jabari Smith, HOU
5. Jaylin Williams, OKC
DPY
1. Rudy Gobert, MIN
2. Bam Adebayo, MIA
3. Mikal Bridges, PHO
4. Evan Mobley, CLE
5. Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL
6MY
1. Jordan Poole, GSW
2. Bobby Portis, MIL
3. Tyus Jones, MEM
4. Malcolm Brogdon, BOS
5. Derrick Rose, NYK
MIP
1. Tyrese Maxey, PHI
2. Tyrese Haliburton, IND
3. RJ Barrett, NYK
4. Desmond Bane, MEM
5. James Wiseman, GSW
COY
1. Chris Finch, MIN
2. Joe Mazzulla, BOS
3. Steve Kerr, GSW
4. Doc Rivers, PHI
5. Mike Budenholzer, MIL
Team
Analysis
Milwaukee Bucks
I will confess that
I chose Milwaukee to finish first in the East prior to learning of multiple injuries,
but we’ll get to that shortly. After
losing to Boston in the second round as a 3 seed, I expect them to try to get the
top seed; even though they previously won the championship as a 3 seed, what if
they have to go through Boston again or Philadelphia? Giannis Antetokounmpo is without a doubt one
of the best players in the league on both ends of the floor, even if he doesn’t
have a good jumper. They also have two
other stars in Jrue Holiday, one of the best defensive guards in the league who
is also an awesome offensive player as well, and Khris Middleton, who is an
awesome shooter and good playmaker on the wing.
Their role players include Brook Lopez, a nice shooter and paint
defender who is hopefully healthy again, Grayson Allen, an awesome shooter and
skilled athlete, Pat Connaughton, an awesome athlete and defender who is also a
good shooter, Bobby Portis, who will move back to his roll of big shooter of
the bench, which he has thrived at, George Hill, who is aging but is still a solid
combo guard and good shooter, Jevon Carter, a great defender and good shooter, Joe
Ingles, who can provide shooting and playmaking when he returns from injury,
Wesley Matthews, who is also aging but can shoot and defend some, Jordan Nwora,
who can shoot some, Serge Ibaka, who didn’t play much for them last year but
can still stretch the floor and defend some, and MarJon Beauchamp, a rookie who
looks like he good be an all-around good player. One thing to note is their injuries: while Joe Ingles was expected to miss
significant time, now it’s sounding like Khris Middleton and Pat Connaughton will
miss at least the first few weeks of the season. This is something to watch in the event of
their injuries being more significant.
That said, I think they’re both top heavy and deep, as well as being
potentially the best team in the NBA.
X-Factor: After a rough finish to the playoffs, there
are a surprising number of individuals question Grayson Allen. He had an atrocious series against Boston,
but shot so well against Chicago that his playoff shooting splits don’t look
too bad. All things considered, he is an
awesome shooter and a talented athlete who makes a major difference on offense
for this team. The one thing I would
hope for is for him to improve on defense since he is so athletic.
Philadelphia
76ers
While I’m scared of
trusting this team in the playoffs, this lineup and coach (Doc Rivers) make
perfect sense to predict they’ll win a lot of games and could wind up clinching
the 1 seed. Joel Embiid is an absolutely
superstar who will be in contention for the MVP and could very well win it; he
is one of the most dominant players in the game, though he has yet to top 70
games in a season. There are two options
in terms of what to do for the second option, with the more obvious hoping
James Harden can improve from his season last year and playing like the elite
playmaker and scorer that we know him as.
The other option (and one I would opt for) is having Harden be a
playmaker while Tyrese Maxey becomes the 2-option, since I believe he is a
better shooter and scorer than Harden at this time. As for the remainder of the team, they have
Tobias Harris, who a good shooter and solid on-ball, though I consistently wish
he would take more 3’s, P.J. Tucker, the physical presence Embiid wanted so
badly who can also shoot (though his shot comes and goes at times), De’Anthony
Melton, an awesome defensive guard who can also shoot, Danuel House, a solid
3-and-D wing, Georges Niang, a sharpshooting stretch-4, Matisse Thybulle, one
of the best perimeter defenders in the league albeit with no offensive contributions,
Shake Milton, a volume bench scorer who isn’t the most efficient, Furkan Korkmaz,
a solid shooter, Paul Reed, a solid defensive center, and Montrezl Harrell, a solid
scoring big in the paint. I have my
reservations during the playoffs depending on the matchup, but this is a nice
one for the regular season.
X-Factor: While the James Harden/Tyrese Maxey duo is
among the better offensive guard combos in the NBA, it could wind up being a
nightmare defensively. That is what
makes the De’Anthony Melton trade so valuable.
If there is a tough matchup, I would even go as far as considering
taking Tobias Harris out and have a 3-guard rotation since Melton is so good
defensively. He can also shoot and
should be a nice target for Harden to have on the perimeter.
Boston Celtics
Boston seemed to be
primed for another amazing season this year after an NBA Finals run, but two
things happened: head coach Ime Udoka
was suspended for the season in a situation that we still don’t know all the details
regarding but doesn’t sound like it’s good, Robert Williams had knee surgery, and
newly signed Danilo Gallinari tore his ACL.
While interim head coach Joe Mazzulla has received praise with his basketball
IQ, he still is a young rookie head coach in an uncomfortable situation. That said, Jayson Tatum is an absolute
superstar who is an awesome scorer and defender who has now added some
playmaking ability to his game. Starring
alongside him is Jaylen Brown, who is a freak athlete, exceptional finisher,
and good defender who has also developed a jumper and started developing some
passing chops late in the season. They
also have a supporting cast that includes Marcus Smart, the reigning Defensive
Player of the Year who loves shooting though has a streaky jumper, Al Horford,
an awesome defender and solid shooter with some playmaking chops who brought some
necessary leadership to the team, Robert Williams, who, when healthy, is an
elite finisher and defender with some passing chops, Malcolm Brogdon, a nice
combo guard who is a good shooter off the ball and smooth playmaker, albeit
often injured, Grant Williams, a very good defender who emerged as a
sharpshooter last season, Derrick White, an awesome defensive guard whose offensive
aggressiveness can waver at points, Payton Pritchard, a sharpshooting guard who
is a nice playmaker too, Sam Hauser, a sharpshooter who looks like a discounted
version of another former Celtic, Gordon Hayward, and Blake Griffin, who can
still shoot from 2 and has some playmaking chops, though he isn’t going to play
a massive role. Despite all of this, I
think they will still be good in a loaded East.
X-Factor: Once Danilo Gallinari went down with an
injury, one question arose: who will
replace that role of bigger shooter?
While Carmelo Anthony was oft rumored, they decided the answer was on
their lineup in Sam Hauser. Hauser didn’t
play a ton as a rookie, but he shot well in both the NBA and G-League after
starring as a sharpshooter in college.
In preseason, he appeared to be more aggressive with his shot as well,
which is a good sign for him.
Ultimately, they’d probably want him to play 10-15 minutes a game consistently
while shooting well, which is something I think he can do for them.
Toronto Raptors
While I couldn’t
logically bring myself to do it in the predictions, I have a hunch and truly believe
that Toronto could finish first in the East.
Pascal Siakam is back to his All-NBA ways as a force on both ends while
incorporating a jumper and improving his playmaking. Fred VanVleet is coming off an All-Star
season where he was a great playmaker, shooter, and defender. Scottie Barnes was the Rookie of the Year last
year and looks like he’s already an awesome finisher, playmaker, and defender,
making me excited to see what his ceiling could be. They also have Gary Trent Jr., an awesome
3-and-D player who is quite the shooter, OG Anunoby, an awesome defender who is
improving his offensive game, though has dealt with injury issues, Precious
Achiuwa, a hardnosed big who has developed a jumper, Chris Boucher, a big who has
shown ability to shoot and block shots, though he is inconsistent and is
recovering from an injury, Otto Porter, who will provide them with another
3-and-D forward/wing, Thaddeus Young, who has been solid for them and shot 3’s
at an unreal rate, Malachi Flynn, a solid shooting guard who could make a jump,
Khem Birch, a solid defender and finisher at center, Dalano Banton, who looks
like he could be a nice defensive guard, and Christian Koloko, a rookie big who
looks like he could be a solid traditional big.
I love this lineup and think that it will be so much fun to watch the
possibilities with switching. I think
that they have multiple options for starting and end of game lineups as well,
which will be intriguing.
X-Factor: Over the past few seasons, Fred VanVleet has
played a boatload of minutes, which is something tough to avoid without a
definitive backup point guard. While I
would consider using Scottie Barnes in the role, one player who I think could
have a breakout year off the bench (and likely needs one) is Malachi Flynn. While he has struggled in the NBA, he had a
nice jumper and solid playmaking ability in college. His defense appears to be improving as well,
so a jump in offense could help his career in Toronto.
Miami Heat
Miami could potentially
finish atop the East, though a lot would have to go right for them; I think
that it is much more likely they finish here than they fall out into the Play-In. They have a lot of good players on their team,
a talented coach, and the right salaries to create a trade at midseason, but I’m
not sure they can top the other teams in the East. Their star is still Jimmy Butler, who is
still a competitive 2-way superstar at 33-years-old. The also have Bam Adebayo, a defensive star
who is still young and is slowly getting more aggressive offensively, Tyler
Herro, the reigning Sixth Man of the Year, Kyle Lowry, an aging but valuable
2-way guard, and several role players who have proven valuable at points in
their careers or could earn roles, including Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Caleb
Martin, Omer Yursteven, Duncan Robinson, Victor Oladipo, Dewayne Dedmon, and
rookie Nikola Jovic; they also have their newest experiment, Haywood Highsmith,
who seems to be solid so far. That said,
Butler hasn’t played 60 games in a season since he joined the Heat, Lowry is coming
off a rough season from a personal and conditioning standpoint that ended with
an atrocious playoff run, none of Oladipo, Robinson, and Dedmon were that
special last season, and there is a massive hole left at the 4 with P.J. Tucker
departing in free agency. I think it is
overstated in endgame situations (I would have Butler playing the 4 at the end
of games and add another shooter in the lineup), but I don’t want that to start
games due to size; the only power forwards listed on the lineup are currently Jovic,
a rookie, and Udonis Haslem, who is currently 42. It is also worth noting that the Heat don’t
have a good history with offering contracts to undrafted/reclamation projects
(look at Tyler Johnson, James Johnson, Hassan Whiteside, and what Robinson is
starting to turn into), though I don’t think any of Strus, Vincent, or Martin
will fall into the same category.
X-Factor: While there aren’t a ton of amazing answers
for the 4 on their roster currently, I think their best bet is to have Omer Yurtseven
at the position. He has size and, while
struggling from deep in the NBA, shot 22-44 from deep in 33 games during his
sophomore year at North Carolina State and was touted as a sharpshooting big
during his recruiting process. If he can
shoot at a decent clip, that helps a lineup with 2 stars who aren’t good
shooters and can plug the hole left by P.J. Tucker on offense.
Brooklyn Nets
Let me be totally
honest about Brooklyn: I have absolutely
no idea what is going to happen with them; it’s possible they win the East, and
it’s possible they have a totally different roster by the trade deadline. They have so many talented players who have
recent injury history, and I’m not the biggest fan of that. The good news for them is that Kevin Durant,
one of the best scorers and shooters of my lifetime, rescinded his trade offer
(for now) and is back, though he last played more than 55 games was when he was
in Golden State. After an odd situation
where nobody with cap space wanted Kyrie Irving, he is back; he is an elite
ball handler and an amazing shooter and scorer, but is a bit erratic to say the
least and is always injured; while people talk about if he’s focused on
basketball this year, he last played 70 games when he was in Cleveland and 55
or more when in Boston, so it’s not just last season where he didn’t play
much. I also wonder what Ben Simmons
will look like after a year off from basketball between a holdout and a back
injury, as well as having to play in a new role; that said, when we last saw
him, he was an elite defender and playmaker as well as a freak athlete. The remainder of the team is full of what-if’s: Joe Harris, who is an elite shooter who isn’t
a good defender (though people try to act like he is due to his size), but missed
most of last season due to injury and will opening night, Seth Curry, who is
one of the best shooters in the game but is dealing with an injury to start the
season, Patty Mills, an awesome shooter who played better than ever to start
the year last year before coming back down to earth, Royce O’Neale, who is a
nice 3-and-D forward but had a bit of an off-year last year defending,
especially in the playoffs, T.J. Warren, an awesome offensive player and
shooter who is oft injured (including right now) and played just 4 games in the
last 2 seasons, Nic Claxton, an awesome defender and finisher who has no shot, including
at the line, Markieff Morris, an aggressive and bigger forward who missed most
of last season due to injury, and a few young freak athletes with potential in
Cam Thomas, Day’Ron Sharpe, and Kessler Edwards. I also wonder how Durant’s the trade request
and ultimatum to Steve Nash and Sean Marks goes over with the team this season.
X-Factor: If several players on this team continue to
deal with injuries, Cam Thomas has an opportunity to showcase how good he
is. I thought he was a steal with the 27th
pick in 2021 and while he is raw and struggled on both ends, especially with
efficiency, he has potential as a shooter, had some nice plays from his
athleticism, is a solid finisher at the rim, has a boatload of confidence, and
won Kevin Durant over. It could take
some time with him, but he could be worth the investment even as soon as later
this year.
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta made a big
move in the offseason by trading for young former Spurs All-Star guard Dejounte
Murray, who is a great defender, nice playmaker, and amazing athlete, though he
isn’t the best shooter, which brings into question how he will fit with this
team. He will pair up with star guard
Trae Young, who is a great scorer, good shooter (though can be streaky at times),
and picks up a ton of assists. While
Murray will shield some of Young’s weaknesses defensively, I question how the
offense will be; Murray isn’t a great shooter and Young hasn’t shown any
willingness to play off the ball and has times where he appears to care more
about his stats (including picking up assists).
It will be quite the experiment that might not pan out, though they didn’t
give up most of their core in making that trade and added a few pieces. They have John Collins, who is perpetually in
trade rumors but an awesome shooter and finisher, though he isn’t always healthy,
De’Andre Hunter, an improving shooter and good athlete who looks like he’s
improving as a defender, albeit often injured, Bogdan Bogdanovic, an oft
injured wing who is a good shooter and efficient scorer (he is out to start the
season), Clint Capela, an athletic rim runner who is a decent rim protector,
Justin Holiday, a nice shooter who can defend some wings, Onyeka Okongwu, an
awesome defensive big who seems to be morphing into a Bam Adebayo protégé when
healthy, Aaron Holiday, a competitive guard who is a nice shooter and plays better
defense than expected for his size, Frank Kaminsky, who will a stretch 5 when
needed, and AJ Griffin, an oft-injured rookie who is raw but has a nice
shooting stroke. One thing to watch with
Atlanta is how much patience they have with head coach Nate McMillan if they
start to struggle.
X-Factor: When Okongwu was drafted in 2020, I was a big
fan of him and praised the selection since he reminded me of Bam Adebayo as an
athletic defensive big who had passing ability and often did what was best for
the team. His minutes increased last
year and he looked amazing when he played, especially on the defensive end and
in the paint, setting up a debate of whether he or Clint Capela should get more
minutes. If Okongwu can improve the
passing we saw when entering the draft, the job is probably best suited for
him.
Cleveland
Cavaliers
Cleveland might
have made the splashiest move of the offseason by trading for Donovan Mitchell,
a move that now gives them 4 young stars.
Mitchell gives them another high scoring option offensively who can create
his own shots and play off the ball, though he hasn’t tried at all on defense
for the last few years. While there
might be questions about the initial fit between him and Darius Garland at the
guard positions, I think that they will both succeed since they’re both good
off the ball, though neither might not score as much as they did last
season. While there are questions about
what that will mean defensively, they also have two amazing defenders behind
them. Evan Mobley looks like an All-NBA
type defensive player after just one season who also has some offensive skills. He pairs with Jarrett Allen, an elite lob
threat and defender in the paint who is so athletic. While there are questions about who should
earn the final starting spot or finish games with this lineup, the team also
features Kevin Love, who embraced a bench role better than I expected and was a
valuable shooter off the bench, Isaac Okoro, an awesome defender who is a
streaky shooter that is often hesitant to take shots, Caris LeVert, a high
volume scorer who doesn’t shoot efficiently and is suddenly in limbo after he
didn’t play particularly well for them last year, Cedi Osman, who has suddenly
emerged as a really nice 3-and-D option after being a below average defender
prior to last season, Ricky Rubio, who is recovering from an injury but is a
great point guard, Dean Wade, a decent shooting and finishing stretch forward
who wasn’t bad defensively last year, Raul Neto, a steady backup point guard,
and Lamar Stevens, an athletic forward.
While I think they are better than they were last year, I question if there
is enough internal improvement to make them take the jump necessary in a loaded
East.
X-Factor: There has been a lot of talk about who will
be the starting/closing 3 for this team, and I think the highest upside would
come if Isaac Okoro can take a leap offensively. He is an awesome defender who should fit
right in due to his ability to guard both guards and forwards, but he is barely
a factor on offense. Teams are often
able to give him open 3’s since he is inconsistent with them and often scared
to take them. If he is more willing to
take them and is slightly better at them, this could open up their offense a
bit more.
New York Knicks
I don’t feel good
having any sort of trust in this team since I don’t believe Tom Thibodeau is
the right coach of this team and many players are so inconsistent, but I
believe the Jalen Brunson signing will do wonders for this team. Brunson is a good shooter, efficient scorer,
and an incredibly smart playmaker and decision maker, which is something New
York has been longing for quite some time.
I think his presence will elevate RJ Barrett's game, who has been a good
shooter despite poor shot selection and finishing ability. If they want to improve their position, the
easiest way to do so is by Julius Randle improving; after a masterful All-NBA
season in 2020-21, he reverted back to some awful habits last season involving
shooting, shot selection, defense, and decision making as a whole. If 2 seasons ago is what he truly is and not
a fluke, they could be in the playoffs again.
As for the remainder of the team, they have a lot of players who might
do something, including Derrick Rose, who has embraced the backup point guard
role and become a good shooter, Mitchell Robinson, who is theoretically a great
fit due to his defense and finishing, but has been inconsistent with effort at
times, Obi Toppin, an awesome finisher and athlete who is improving as a
defender and always seems to make the right plays, Immanuel Quickley, a nice shooter
who is improving as a playmaker, Quentin Grimes, an awesome shooter who also
has potential as a defender, Isaiah Hartenstein, a nice backup center with
ability as a playmaker, defender, and some shooting potential, Evan Fournier,
who shouldn’t get as much playing time as he does but can at least shoot some,
Jericho Sims, an awesome athlete and finisher, Miles McBride, who has some potential
as a shooter and ball handler, and Cam Reddish, who I’m not a fan of but is an
awesome athlete with upside. While they
have nice depth, I expect older players will get most of the minutes as Thibs
continue to recognize that playing the young guys isn’t only a strategy for the
future but is likely better in the short term as well since they’re that good.
X-Factor: Since Tom Thibodeau is stubborn and seems to
almost always believe that old players are better than young players, Knicks
fans have been stuck watching Evan Fournier play more minutes than he probably
should. I personally would want Quentin
Grimes receiving more of those minutes because I think he’s better than
Fournier. As a rookie last year, he
looked like a really good shooter and has potential as a defender as well. I’m not sure what it it’ll take for Thibs to cave,
but I think Grimes has already proven his value while Fournier has proven a lot
less.
Chicago Bulls
Honestly, part of
me wants to love this team and be high on them since they have so many players
that I love. I’ve been super supportive
of DeMar DeRozan for most of his career since he has made up for his struggles
from 3 with a nice mid-range game, exceptional finishing, and strong free throw
shooting while also developing into a great playmaker. I also have been higher on Zach LaVine than many
since I love his development as a shooter to pair with his elite
athleticism. They also have Nikola Vucevic,
who is a good offensive player with a jumper at times, Lonzo Ball, an awesome
transition guard who has developed into a great 3-and-D player when healthy
(more on that in a bit), Patrick Williams, a 21-year-old mystery man who has
boatload of potential as a shooter and defender albeit is raw and missed most
of last season with an injury, Alex Caruso, an amazing perimeter defender with
a streaky jumper, Colby White, an aggressive score-first guard with a nice
jumper, Ayo Dosunmu, a combo guard who could be a nice shooter, passer, and
potentially defender, Andre Drummond, who has embraced the role of an elite
rebounding backup center and is awesome at it, Derrick Jones, a great finisher
and solid defender, and Dalen Terry, a rookie who has potential as a quality
role player who can shoot, pass, and defend.
Now for the worst possible news:
Lonzo Ball had surgery and will miss the start of the season. The Bulls were horrible without him last
season and I don’t expect it to improve this season. On top of that, Vucevic had a horrible season
last year, LaVine has had multiple knee surgeries, and DeRozan had a career year
last year and might not duplicate it. A
lot has to go right for them to beat this position.
X-Factor: While I expect Coby White or Alex Caruso to
replace Lonzo Ball in the starting lineup while out, I would take a look at Ayo
Dosunmu. He’s an intriguing player who
has shown potential as a playmaker and shooter while defending fairly well for
a rookie. It should be noted that he was
a 22-year-old rookie who I thought would be NBA ready and go in the 1st
round, but he is a smart player who I think could slide into the role Ball
played at a better level than Caruso or White could.
Washington
Wizards
I am once again
puzzled by this team; they have some interesting individual players, but their
defense is bad, and I could see their offense not being as good as
expected. They resigned Bradley Beal, who
is an amazing offensive player despite coming off a bad season by his standards
(though many would be thrilled to have that season), though I’m not sure what
the ceiling is of a team led by Beal in a loaded Eastern Conference. They bought low on a potential star in
Kristaps Porzingis; while I have low expectations for him at this point to play
well or stay healthy, but he shot and defended well after being traded to
Washington. Kyle Kuzma had probably his
best season to date last year, as he looks like an efficient scorer, solid
shooter, and quality all-around player. As
for the remainder of the team, Monte Morris will be an upgrade offensively at
point guard as a scorer and playmaker, though I prefer him as a bench player
due to his poor defense, Will Barton hunts for his shot and is a fairly
efficient scorer, Rui Hachimura is an improving shooter and efficient scorer albeit
inconsistent as a whole, Deni Avdija has looked like a nice defender with some
other skills, Delon Wright is a nice combo guard on and off the ball, Daniel
Gafford is an awesome finishing and defending big, Corey Kispert looks like an
awesome shooter and efficient scorer, though he will be injured to start the
season, Johnny Davis has received a lot of hype as a rookie for his scoring
ability and size, though I’m not a fan of his since I think he is an inefficient
scorer who takes some bad shots, and Taj Gibson, who is somehow still a good
defender at the age of 37. There are
some who are high on Washington and believe that last season was a worst-case
scenario; my response to that is that they could be much worse considering how
bad their defense is and inconsistent many of their players are. I just don’t believe in them.
X-Factor: When Deni Avdija was drafted in 2020, I
thought he was a skilled player across the board who would struggle defensively
for a few years. Last season, his
greatest strength was defense, and now there’s a case to be made that he is the
best defender on the team. While his
offensive game hasn’t been up to the same level yet, he has a nice-looking
jumper and has shown glimpses of playmaking.
If he can take a step forward offensively, he could be a key player for
this team.
Detroit Pistons
I like a lot of
what Detroit has done over the past few seasons, though I don’t think they’ll
be ready to make the playoffs yet. Cade
Cunningham looks like an awesome player and a cornerstone to their future
development as a big playmaker who can also shoot; I think he could have an
amazing season. They also have Sadiiq
Bey, who’s a great shooter, and Isaiah Stewart, who I think is going to be a
good defending and shooting center, as definitive pieces in their core. They acquired Bojan Bogdanovic, who is a
great shooter and scorer and will be a natural fit off the ball. I expect Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren will be
valuable pieces for them in the future, but I’m not optimistic that they’ll
have great rookie seasons (in particular, I think Ivey could struggle this
season). To fill out their roster, they
have solid veteran players in Nerlens Noel, Cory Joseph, and Alec Burks, as
well as other young guys who have shown potential in Isaiah Livers, Marvin
Bagley III (though he will likely miss a few weeks with an injury), and Hamidou
Diallo. One thing to note is that
Bogdanovic is essentially replacing Jerami Grant; while Bogdanovic will fit
better than Grant, Grant is a better player, so I think there could be a bit of
a transition period needed. If things go
wrong for a couple teams, then I expect this team will make the Play-In, but I
don’t see them making the playoffs unless a lot of internal improvement occurs.
X-Factor: Killian Hayes was drafted with the 7th
pick in 2020 and hasn’t shown much of anything offensively, struggling from the field and on
many occasions struggling to run plays while at the point. There’s a good chance he doesn’t become the
star they hoped when drafting him, but his defense has looked a lot better,
which is promising, considering his size.
While it might be easy to compare him to Frank Ntilikina and figure
he’ll fall out of the rotation, they can maximize his potential by developing
him in a manner that Marcus Smart was, by focusing so much on his defense and
allowing the rest of the game to develop slower. That said, if he makes a jump this year, this
team could improve drastically.
Indiana Pacers
The place Indiana ends
up in the standings will depend on how long until they trade Myles Turner, a shot
blocking center who can also shoot some, and Buddy Hield, an awesome
shooter. If these two are traded
earlier, they will be close to a lock to finish last. Their key piece that they’re building around
now is Tyrese Haliburton, an awesome passer and great shooter with nice size,
though he is on the skinny side and a poor defender. They just drafted Bennedict Mathuran, who is
an explosive athlete and nice shooter who will likely pair well with
Haliburton. They have several other
young players and are hoping some click, including Chris Duarte, an awesome
shooting wing with nice size, a stretch 4 who might be a good finisher, Isaiah
Jackson, a young shot blocking and rim running elite athlete who is still
incredibly raw, Aaron Nesmith, who has shown potential as a shooter and
defender though has been inconsistent in limited playing time, Goga Bitadze,
who has some potential as a finisher in the paint, Oshae Brissett, a solid shooting
wing, Andrew Nembhard, a rookie combo guard who can do a bit of everything, and
Terry Taylor, an amazing finisher. Once
Turner and Hield are traded, their remaining veterans likely won’t cause them
to win too much, as those include T.J. McConnell, James Johnson, and Daniel Theis,
none of whom are going to be a massive impact player on a competitive
team. They are near the beginning of their
rebuild, but they have some intriguing pieces already.
X-Factor: One under the radar player who could have an
impact is Aaron Nesmith. He was a
sharpshooter in college and while he showed what he could do as a shooter and
defender in the second half of his rookie season, he didn’t get much playing
time last year for Boston and struggled with his shot. He has the potential to earn more playing
time, especially once Buddy Hield is traded, where he can showcase not only his
shooting stroke but also his athleticism which he has utilized to be a decent
defender early in his career.
Orlando Magic
Orlando is a team
where I love what they’re doing but do not expect them to be particularly
good. They had the first pick in the
draft and selected Paolo Banchero, who looks like he is going to be an offensive
force and appears to be ready for a Rookie of the Year run. Franz Wagner had an amazing Euro Championship
to follow his great rookie season and looks like he could be a nice
shooting/playmaking complementary piece.
Wendell Carter also looks like he will be a core piece as a great
defensive big with nice finishing ability.
The team has several other young players as well, including Cole
Anthony, a score first guard who is improving as a playmaker as well, Jalen Suggs,
an athletic guard who had a tough rookie year but has potential as a playmaker
and scorer, Chuma Okeke, an aggressive forward who is a talented athlete and
awesome defender, Mo Bamba, a big who has a jumper and shot blocking potential,
Bol Bol, who is raw and injury-prone, but has potential as a shot blocker and
shooter, R.J. Hampton, a great athlete who is raw but has potential as a 2-way
guard, and rookie Caleb Houstan, a sharpshooting rookie who had a rough year in
college. It is also worth noting that
they have a few quality players dealing with injuries, including Gary Harris
with a torn meniscus, Markelle Fultz, who has been oft injured in the last
couple years, and Jonathan Isaac, who has yet to play since the Bubble and
still is dealing with injuries. They
also have Terrence Ross, an athletic veteran bench scorer who might finally be
moved, and Mo Wagner, a bench center who might do something. They might outperform this seeding, but they will
be rough defensively and will go through their young mistakes. That said, I’ve been eyeing this team for a
while and I love what they have done.
X-Factor: Jalen Suggs had a tough rookie year last
season, but he was a highly touted prospect who thrived at Gonzaga. He is an awesome athlete who has shown that
he can shoot some, be a solid finisher, defend aggressively, and be a great
decision-maker. At Gonzaga, he showed he
was willing to allow others to star if it helped win (something rare for a
prospect that touted at that age) and already looks like such a decision
maker. Prior to the 2020 Draft, I
compared him to Jamal Murray, Chauncey Billups, and Kyle Lowry at different
points, all of whom also struggled as rookies; if he improves, this team could
be more competitive than expected.
Charlotte
Hornets
On first glimpse,
this might be a bit shocking and a bad selection, so let’s see if I’m
overreacting. First and foremost, Miles
Bridges is no longer with the team due to an arrest where he is charged with
domestic violence; while I am glad that he is no longer with the team since it
sounds like a serious situation, Charlotte replaced his roster spot with…nobody,
to be honest, which will be rough on the court since he was their second-best
player last year. They do have LaMelo
Ball, who is looking like an amazing point guard already and is especially good
at a fast pace…oh look, he has an ankle sprain and is set to miss the beginning
of the season. As for the remainder of
the team, Terry Rozier is a nice shooter and scorer, though him at point doesn’t
lead to a lot of wins, Gordon Hayward is good but always injured and regressed
some last season, P.J. Washington, who is one of the two defensive player on
this team I trust consistently and has improved a bit offensively, Mason
Plumlee, the other solid defender who can rebound and pass some but somehow
forgot how to shoot free throws, Kelly Oubre, an explosive player who I like as
a bench player for them, and a couple guys who shoot and don’t do much else in
Cody Martin and Jalen McDaniels. They
also have several young players who are talented but haven’t gotten the playing
time needed to develop into quality players, including Nick Richards, the last
remaining answer at center in the 2020 Draft, Kai Jones, the answer at center
in the 2021 Draft, JT Thor, a big with great athleticism and potential though
is raw and needs more playing time, and James Bouknight, an aggressive scorer
and quality shooter who probably deserved more minutes last year. They also have their answer at center in the
2022 Draft, Mark Williams. They have
struggled mightily to develop draft picks in the last few years, with the
exception of Ball, Bridges, Washington (all three of whom were difficult to
mess up), and Martin to a certain extent, something I’ve been saying since they
couldn’t figure out how to use Malik Monk.
Add on the fact that they hired Steve Clifford as a head coach, who
plays at a slow pace (good luck on that with Ball and this roster), likes
defensive effort (good luck with most of this lineup), and doesn’t like playing
younger guys (so how many veterans does he play the whole game?). In other words, get ready to grow weary with Plumlee
and Hayward while young quality players don’t get the minutes they could
use. But it’s ok, they have a great
backup point guard option of…Dennis Smith Jr.?
Get your bags packing, Rozier, Hayward, and Plumlee, and get ready to tank,
Charlotte.
X-Factor: While LaMelo Ball is injured, James Bouknight
has an opportunity for more minutes. He
is a score-first 2-guard with nice size and is a good athlete. He has looked like a good shooter as well,
which will give him more opportunities to make baskets. He also has nice size, which bodes well for
his potential as a defender. The thing
that could work against him is that he tends to be a bit trigger happy, which
won’t pair well with new coach Steve Clifford.
That said, if Ball, Terry Rozier, or Gordon Hayward have the ball in
their hands more than Bouknight, he could develop into a nice off-ball player
as well.
West
Minnesota
Timberwolves
I know this
placement sounds absolutely ludicrous, but there is a lot to like. While there are some talking points that I’ll
get to soon, there are so many individuals on this team out to prove something
that can all co-exist: Karl-Anthony
Towns wants to prove he is an NBA star, Rudy Gobert wants to prove his presence
was the most important component of Utah’s construction, Anthony Edwards wants
to prove he is ready for stardom, D’Angelo Russell wants to prove he is worthy
of another big contract, Jaden McDaniels wants to prove he is a legitimate NBA
starter, Chris Finch wants to prove he can coach this team to a boatload of
wins, and the executives on this team want to prove that they weren’t insane
when they paid a pretty penny to acquire Gobert. I think it will work for a number of
reasons. Their offense was amazing last
season and inserting Gobert offensively will largely replace Jared Vanderbilt,
which I think can improve their offense; Gobert fixes a lot for them
defensively while McDaniels is a good defender and Edwards is improving
drastically and wants to be great. Towns
is one of the best shooting bigs in the game, Russell will have a big to pass
to which will let him play to his strengths, Kyle Anderson will be a nice point
forward off the bench, and a bench mob that could also contain Taurean Prince,
Austin Rivers, Bryn Forbes, rookie Wendell Moore, Jordan McLaughlin, Naz Reid,
and Jaylen Nowell, which will provide them a nice blend of shooting and
playmaking. I think Minnesota is trying
to create what Utah had the past few seasons, and I honestly believe it can be
better on both ends.
X-Factor: I expect Jaden McDaniels will be one of their
starters, which is something I would do as well. While this is easily the best move
defensively, his jumper has been inconsistent.
While I think it will improve this season, it needs to in order to
maximize this team’s offensive potential.
Golden State
Warriors
Prior to some recent
preseason developments, I felt really good about the team at this spot with
potential to finish first; that said, I think this team will still be
good. Steph Curry is still one of the
best players in the game and is the best shooter the world has ever seen. There’s a case to be made that Klay Thompson
is second best, though it is worth noting that his defense was not as good as
it was prior to his injury. Draymond
Green is still an excellent defender, but…more on that in a second. Andrew Wiggins had arguably his best season
yet last year as he has now emerged as not only an awesome shooter for them but
a very good defender; he really is the perfect fit for this team. Jordan Poole is an awesome scorer with Sixth
Man of the Year potential, Kevon Looney is an awesome defender who might have
learned some playmaking as well, Donte DiVincenzo is a solid 3-and-D guard, JaMychal
Green, a nice finisher and okay defender, 37-year-old in January Andre Iguodala
might have a bit of defense left in the tank, and the younger studs of James
Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga, and Moses Moody have all shown glimpses of how
talented they could be and will likely play a role in the team’s success this
year. That said, the most talked about NBA
moment of the last several days is likely the fact that Green punched Poole in
the face during a practice. While I normally
wouldn’t dwell much on it, there are a couple questions I have: how aggressive will Green be during the
season, and how will the fact that Golden State opted to extend Poole and
Wiggins (seemingly) over Green sit with him and the remainder of the team? We saw what Green without some edge was
during the disastrous 2019-20 season; they need him to be competitive.
X-Factor: Since I’ve eliminated Draymond Green since he’s
too essential of a player, Kevon Looney is an unorthodox one but is someone I
would watch. I have heard several people
citing Looney as a potential replacement for Green, and now that he has some
playmaking and passing ability too, I think it makes sense. If he wants to prove he can be a cheap man’s
Draymond, he will need to have a great season this year to put the team at ease
prior to Green’s contract is up.
Phoenix Suns
There was a lot of
buzz this offseason related to the Robert Sarver investigation and the
seemingly chilly relationship between coach Monty Williams and Deandre Ayton,
but I don’t think either will cause the team to totally implode. I think they will be a very good team
again. Devin Booker looks like a
legitimate superstar in the league and is such an incredible scorer from
anywhere on the court; he has also emerged as a nice leader for this team,
something that will become valuable once Chris Paul retires. Speaking of Paul, he has still defied age
again, but I still think we need to keep an eye on his durability and role with
the team this year; I would consider limiting Paul’s minutes during the regular
season and hope that these injuries he always seems to get are not
inevitable. No matter what’s going on
with Ayton, he has turned into an efficient scorer and a very good defender,
though he does have moments I wish he would be more aggressive. Their starting lineup will be filled out with
Mikal Bridges, an incredible defender and nice offensive player who could be an
All-Star in the next few years, and Cam Johnson, who is an awesome shooter and
could provide some talent on both ends.
That said, their bench is a bit thin, now that Jae Crowder didn’t attend
training camp and appears to have played his final games with the
organization. Their bench is made up of
players including Torrey Craig (who I like for them, though he might not do a
ton offensively), Landry Shamet (who is a nice scorer though inconsistent),
Dario Saric (coming off a year-long injury), Cam Payne (who is aggressive
offensively but can also be inconsistent), Josh Okogie (a nice defender with no
offensive game), Damian Lee (who can provide something for them at times), and
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (who is currently 27 and I’m still not sure how good he
is). While there is the potential to
have things go wrong, I think they’ll win a lot in the regular season.
X-Factor: If Jae Crowder doesn’t opt to rescind his
trade request, Torrey Craig makes the most sense to fill this role. He isn’t the defender Crowder is, but if last
year’s shooting was a fluke, then he is a better shooter. He could really do wonders for their depth.
Memphis
Grizzlies
I could honestly
see Memphis winning the West, but there is one massive thing: Jaren Jackson is expected to be out for a few
months after surgery. He is an awesome
defender who has shown glimpses of a jumper (albeit inconsistent), so this will
be a massive loss during the regular season for them. That said, they still have Ja Morant who is a
definitive superstar and could be an MVP candidate; he is an elite scorer and
playmaker whose shot seems to be improving as well, though he has struggled as
a defender. Desmond Bane has also taken
a jump and looks to be a core piece for them long term, as he looks like an
awesome shooter and defender who is ready to take on a massive role. Other key players they have include Dillon
Brooks, an aggressive and pesky defender who can be a bit inconsistent with his
offensive game, Tyus Jones, probably the best backup point guard in the league
who is a nice playmaker, shooter, and defender with a high basketball IQ, Brandon
Clarke, an athletic 4 who is a great finisher and nice defender, Steven Adams,
one of the strongest players in the league who is nice on both ends of the court,
Xavier Tillman, a nice defensive big who can finish some, Ziaire Williams, an
elite athlete and finisher who I believe has some shooting potential as well,
and John Konchar, who is a nice shooter.
Memphis also always seems to have some role players who are ready to
make a jump; some who could play a role this year include Killian Tille, a big with
some shooting potential (I’d bet on him), Santi Almada, a big with a lot of skill,
Jake LaRavia, a skilled rookie who at worst should be a nice shooter, David
Roddy, a skilled rookie with an aggressive game (note that I’m not that high on
him due to his inconsistent free throw shooting, size, and jump from playing at
Colorado State last year), and Kennedy Chandler, a small but athletic rookie guard. Once Jackson returns from injury, I think
this team will play better, making them a scary playoff team to watch.
X-Factor: Every year, the Grizzlies can afford to dump
a player on the verge of getting paid because they have someone who can replace
them; the next player who could make a jump is Ziaire Williams. He is an elite athlete who struggled with his
jumper but finished at an elite level.
His competitiveness and intensity have made him a natural fit with this
team, but so has his ability to defend at a higher level than I expected him to
as a rookie. He’s young and will still
have his mistakes, but I think he will make a major jump this year. One other thing to watch: he was better at the free throw line than I
expected, making me wonder if he has some shooting potential.
Denver Nuggets
If I were to ignore
injuries, I might have this team near the top of the conference; that said, I
tend to be nervous when evaluating players coming off serious/season-long
injuries. The injuries to Jamal Murray,
an awesome scorer and perfect combo guard for this team, and Michael Porter
Jr., an awesome shooting forward with great size, make me nervous since, while
both seem to have recovered, they played a combined 9 games this past
season. That said, it would be tough for
them to fall any lower since they have reigning 2-time MVP Nikola Jokic, one of
the most complete offensive bigs in the game who now looks like a decent
defender as well. I love the supporting
cast members they have on this team, which include Aaron Gordon, who has
embraced and excelled at his role as a defender, finisher, and cutter, Kentavious
Caldwell-Pope, a skilled 3-and-D wing, Bruce Brown, an awesome defender who can
guard any position, Jeff Green, who has suddenly become consistently good on
both ends after a career marred by inconsistency, Bones Hyland, an aggressive scoring
guard with a nice jumper, Ish Smith, one of the most steady and consistent
backup point guards in the game, Zeke Nnaji, a backup big with a nice jumper, Christian
Braun, a nice shooter and athlete who might be a solid 3-and-D player as a
rookie, and, if all else fails, De’Andre Jordan who…is apparently still in the
league? (At worst, Jordan has been
touted as a teammate). If everyone is
healthy, this team is going to be awesome.
X-Factor: While the health of their stars is truly the
x-factor for Denver, I love the Bruce Brown acquisition and am going to declare
him the x-factor instead. He is an
incredible defender who at 6’4 seems to be able to defend any position. He is going to take a massive load off Aaron
Gordon, their main defender last year, and the newly acquired Kentavious
Caldwell-Pope. They have multiple forwards/wings
who can switch defensively, which Brown will be able to have no problem with.
Los Angeles
Clippers
This might seem incredibly
low for the Clippers, but this is yet another case where I get nervous
regarding players coming off major injuries.
Superstar Kawhi Leonard is one of the best players in the league on both
ends when healthy, but he missed all last season and last topped 60 games in
2016-17. Their other superstar, Paul
George, has also been a star on both ends as well, but he last played 60 or
more games in 2018-19, while playing in just 31 games last season. George has also had his difficulties playing
off Leonard in certain situations, as he has struggled with efficiency at times
when both were on the court. Beyond
them, they might have the deepest team in the league, especially when looking
at the number of wings they have who could do something, making it possible to
still succeed without Leonard or George.
This team includes Marcus Morris, a bigger aggressive forward who is a
good shooter, Norman Powell, a talented scorer who has a nice jumper, though
undersized for a wing, Reggie Jackson, a score first guard who can compile a
lot of points, albeit inefficiently, Robert Covington, an awesome team defender
who can guard forwards and centers well, John Wall, who has upside to be a
great playmaker, athlete, and solid defender, though he has barely played since
2016-17 and missed his second season in 3 years last season, Terance Mann, a
nice 3-and-D wing who is also a good finisher, Luke Kennard, NBA’s leader in
3-point percent last season, Nicolas Batum, who has rejuvenated his career as a
quality shooting forward who can defend some, Ivaca Zubac, a traditional big
who can rebound, finish, and defend fairly well, Amir Coffey, who has a nice
jumper, and BJ Boston, a young awesome athlete with some potential. Ultimately, their ceiling comes down to the
health of Leonard and George, but they have the depth to survive when they’re
out.
X-Factor: I honestly believe that Norman Powell could
be the third option on this team that has a drop-off after Kawhi Leonard and
Paul George. Powell has topped 16 PPG in
each of the last 3 seasons while improving his total each year and consistently
shooting at a high clip. With the number
of strong defenders they have, he wouldn’t be as responsible for defense, which
is a weakness of his. While many are
focusing on the return of John Wall, Powell could have a bigger impact in the
role of 3rd option.
New Orleans
Pelicans
I think this is
closer to the floor of where this team will finish, but I tend to be nervous
when players return from year-long injuries.
If Zion Williamson is back and is 90% of what he was 2 seasons ago, they
will likely avoid the Play-In since he is a dominant force in the paint on
offense and in the fast break, though he needs to improve defensively. Even if he’s out, Brandon Ingram looks like a
star and has such a nice jumper and is improving defensively. C.J. McCollum has fit perfectly with this
team as a scoring guard who can shoot well while also act as a playmaker. They also have role players in Jonas
Valanciunas, who has always looked natural in the paint but now has added a 3
to his game, Herb Jones, who looked like an amazing defender as a rookie and
might be a better shooter than I expected, Devonte’ Graham, who’s a good shooter,
Larry Nance Jr., who’s an amazing athlete, defender, and finisher, Jose Alvarado,
who was a good defender as well while also showing some playmaking chops, Trey
Murphy, who was an awesome shooter as a rookie, Kira Lewis, who was injured
most of last year but has potential as a playmaker, Jaxson Hayes, who has shown
potential as a shot-blocking stretch 5, Dyson Daniels, a rookie who has nice
measurements and playmaking chops, and Willy Hernangomez, who can be a decent
backup center if needed. I am curious to
see how this team meshes with Williamson.
Williamson, Ingram, McCollum, and Valanciunas all prefer not shooting it
beyond the arc, with Ingram and McCollum favoring midrange shots a lot and
Valanciunas favoring post-ups, so I’m curious how clogged the lane gets. I also am curious what value Graham will
provide now that they acquired McCollum to fill the role that I thought Graham
was brought in for as a shooting-based point guard, especially since he had a
rougher season from deep last year. Most
importantly, the injuries: while Hayes is
out and will be re-evaluated in a couple weeks, Williamson is listed as
day-to-day, which is how he was listed last season, where he missed the
season. At worst, they have the assets
to acquire a bigger name (I like the idea of how Myles Turner would fit), so
that’s worth keeping an eye on.
X-Factor: If Zion Williamson is healthy, their best bet
offensively is to surround him with shooters, making Trey Murphy suddenly an
essential piece in what they’re building.
He was an elite shooter in college and didn’t disappoint from that end as
a rookie, though he didn’t do much else last season. If he could improve a bit as a defender, he
could be a big reason of them improving a spot in the standings.
Dallas Mavericks
This might be a
tough projection to grasp since Dallas just made it to the Western Conference
Finals, but they did lose Jalen Brunson in free agency, who was their second-best
player last season. That said, they
still have Luka Doncic, one of the best offensive players in the game, who
makes falling lower than here difficult to justify. The two biggest question marks are what they
get from Spencer Dinwiddie, who shot at a career best clip across the field,
and Christian Wood, who has yet to show he can play winning basketball or be
consistent and will have to embrace a bench role to start the season, which is their
best bet to improve in the standings. As
for the remainder of the team, they have Tim Hardaway Jr., a good shooter and
scorer who is returning from injury, Dorian Finney-Smith, an awesome defensive
forward who now has also become a good shooter, Reggie Bullock, a quality
3-and-D wing, JaVale McGee, an awesome defensive center and finisher, Maxi
Kleber, a stretch-4 who is also a solid defender, Dwight Powell, a solid defensive
big and elite finisher, Josh Green, a wing who appears to be emerging as a
3-and-D player, Davis Bertans, a good shooter, Frank Ntilikina, a great defender
who appears to be improving as a shooter, and Jaden Hardy, a rookie who was a
highly touted prospect and elite athlete before falling a bit in the
draft. While they have the perfect
supporting cast around Doncic in terms of guys who can shoot, I fear that they
don’t have the playmaking ability or second star; I also am curious if their
elite defense was a fluke.
X-Factor: Most would choose Christian Wood here, but I
am going to choose Spencer Dinwiddie. He
was awesome in Dallas, being an additional playmaker, defending at a better
level than ever, and shooting his best clip.
That said, I fear that this was a bit of a fluke, especially since the
shooting percentage rose nearly 10 percentage point from his numbers with Washington
and that I think the defense was due in part to the team playing such good
defense. Without Jalen Brunson on the
team, Dinwiddie is their second ball handler and could be exposed more easily;
if he can rise to the level Brunson played at last year, the team could avoid
the Play-In.
Los Angeles
Lakers
I’ve given up
trying to figure out what will happen with team, which is good when I’m just
watching basketball, though difficult for when I have to make predictions about
how they will do in the season. If all
goes right, I guess they could be the 5 or 6 seed, though I could also see them
dropping as low as 12th.
While both still immensely talented, I do not like trusting the health of
LeBron James and Anthony Davis since neither has topped 60 games while with the
Lakers other than during their Championship season. That said, LeBron had an exceptional season
when healthy and Davis has got to be ready to prove people wrong this
season. Russell Westbrook was a pretty
terrible fit with that team since he cannot shoot and is best when he has the
ball in his hand constantly; it’s sounding like they’ll experiment with him
coming off the bench, which I think is smart so he can have minutes without
LeBron or Davis. Admittedly, I’m not too
impressed with their depth, though they have some nice players. They have Patrick Beverley, who I think is a
bit overhyped, but he is a good defender (when not committing stupid fouls) and
a solid shooter, Juan Toscano-Anderson, who is a good wing defender, Damian
Jones, who is a nice finisher and defender at center, Austin Reaves, who was
solid for them and could be nice off the bench, Thomas Bryant, an offensive-minded
center who is a great finisher and has shooting potential, Kendrick Nunn, a
good shooter who is coming off an injury and often plays out of the offense, and
Dennis Schroder, who gives them an additional ball handler though he is
starting off the season injured. They
also are hoping that someone can give them something out of the group of Lonnie
Walker, Wenyen Gabriel, Troy Brown, and rookie Max Christie. If LeBron or Davis are injured (which you can’t
rule out), good luck, since this could be a rough one.
X-Factor: At this point, I don’t believe they’re
getting anything from Russell Westbrook and their best bet is to trade him for
a contributor. That said, if they
cannot, he needs to realize he has to accept a lesser role or a bench role,
otherwise his career could be on the line.
This might sound like hyperbole, but I honestly am not sure what team
would want to sign him if he cannot accept the fact that he isn’t a superstar
anymore.
Sacramento Kings
I am honestly so excited
to see this team compete so hard to squeak into the playoffs. They appear to be going all in on offense,
which is going to start with their stars, De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. While Fox has struggled as a shooter and
defender, he is an excellent athlete with great speed, a talented finisher, and
is a solid playmaker. While Sabonis also
cannot shoot or defend, he is also an incredible finisher and playmaker. They have surrounded these two with a
boatload of shooting, including Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk, and Trey Lyles, who
will probably specialize behind the arc for them. They also have a couple likely starting
forwards who can shoot and defend some in Harrison Barnes, who is reportedly an
amazing teammate and appears to be perfect for this team, and rookie Keegan
Murray, who tore it up in summer league and looks to me like he will be Aaron
Gordon with a jumper. Some other role
players on the team include Richaun Holmes, who might be among the best backup
centers in the game, Chimezie Metu, another backup big that I really like,
Terence Davis, a decent 3-and-D player, and Davion Mitchell, a defensive point
guard who showed some playmaking chops though struggled defensively
(ironically) and with his jumper, making me wonder how he will fit with the
team if the jumper his junior year of college was a fluke (as I fear it might
have been). They got a new coach in Mike
Brown, who has been known for his defensive prowess. While I don’t expect him to make this a great
defensive squad, I could see him implementing plays to make them not horrible;
if he can make them a top-20 team defensively while living up to their
offensive potential, then I think they will outpace this prediction and make
the playoffs.
X-Factor: While Malik Monk might seem like an unusual
choice as the x-factor for this team, I believe he is just what they needed on
the offensive end. He had a breakout
season for the Lakers last year and now has shown he can shoot from anywhere
while being a good ball handler as well, which is why he was one of my favorite
players entering the 2017 Draft (on par with Jayson Tatum and behind De’Aaron
Fox, ironically). Sacramento needed
someone who could shoot when Fox, Davion Mitchell, or Domantas Sabonis are on
the court and also handle the ball while playmaking some if needed. Monk is the perfect person for that role and
could be a Sixth Man of the Year candidate.
What I’m curious about is what he could be defensively with coach Mike
Brown; he is a nice athlete, so I wonder what could happen.
Portland Trail
Blazers
I’m kind of torn on
this lineup; while they made some moves that will make this team better, I’m
not particularly optimistic about this team, especially from a defensive
standpoint. That said, Damian Lillard,
one of the best scoring guards and shooters in the NBA, is back from injury; if
he can shoot at a level he was at pre-injury, the Blazers would be ecstatic. They acquired Jerami Grant this offseason,
who is a good defender and solid scorer when not a top option, but I fear
Portland will treat him as a 2nd or 3rd option whereas I
would want him as a 4th or 5th honestly. A lot of fans would probably consider Jusuf
Nurkic their 3rd best player, but he hasn’t been healthy in the last
3 seasons and when playing has often looked like a shell of himself, frequently
a couple steps behind everyone. They
have a collection of players who have had stretches of at least solid play,
including Anfernee Simons, a smaller shooting guard who is a nice scorer and
elite shooter, Josh Hart, a good rebounder for his size, solid shooter, and
decent team defender, Gary Payton II, an elite defender and efficient scorer
(though he will be out for at least a couple weeks with injury), Nassir Little,
an awesome athlete and finisher who I think could be a good defender, Justise
Winslow, an awesome athlete who is an okay defender and playmaker, and Drew
Eubanks, who looked like a solid center for them during their tankathon to
finish the year. They made an
interesting decision in the draft by selecting Shaedon Sharpe in the draft, as
he is an incredible athlete who is raw and coming straight from high school; I
don’t see him contributing much this year.
They are also banking on contributions from some athletic young players,
including Keon Johnson (whose shot improved as the year went on), Greg Brown,
and Trendon Watford. Ultimately, I think
this team will again be bad at defense, despite their additions, and will make
it difficult to get into the playoffs.
X-Factor: While Drew Eubanks will start the year as
their backup center, staring center Jusuf Nurkic has struggled with injuries
and sluggish play the last couple years, so Eubanks could play more minutes than
expected. He looked really good as a
finisher and rebounder to end the season, which will make him a nice fit alongside
the other members of the team. I don’t
think he’ll be a good defender, but he has shown glimpses of being a shooter,
which could be an interesting addition to his game.
Oklahoma City
Thunder
Oklahoma City will
actively try to lose a lot again, but don’t be surprised if they wind up not
finishing in last place again despite their best efforts. When looking at this team, I’m going to
outright skip the veterans above the age of 25 since they likely won’t get a
ton of playing time (sorry Mike Muscala, Kenrich Williams, etc.). The first major note is that I don’t think
their win total will be drastically impacted by Chet Holmgren’s injury; I
thought he would have his struggles to start the season at the minimum; where I
think it will impact them is next season, since I thought that this team with
him in his second season could be a Play-In team. If he is healthy/not being held out of games
due to helping win too much, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is an amazing and aggressive
scorer and an underrated passer and defender; I really like him and hope he’s
healthy. They also have two other
potential staples who will play this season in Josh Giddey, a big guard who is
an awesome passer and rebounder, and (unless he’s traded to help create more losses)
Lu Dort, a solid defender and aggressive scorer whose shot is streaky but
improving. They have so many young
players with potential, including Darius Bazley, an awesome finisher and
defender though terrible shooter, Aleksej Pokusevski, an intriguing skilled big
who is still raw and reckless, Ousmane Dieng, a big playmaker who cannot shoot,
Jalen Williams, an athletic wing who is a good shooter and will probably be a
solid 3-and-D player, Tre Mann, a score first guard with a solid jumper,
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, an okay big who has been better than I expected, Aaron
Wiggins, a strong finishing wing with potential as a shooter, and Jaylin Williams,
an aggressive big who is willing to do the dirty work. The only reason I could see them finishing
this high is that I think they’ll stumble into a bunch of wins despite their
best efforts, especially compared to the remaining 3 Western Conference teams.
X-Factor: The correct answer is nobody as an x-factor
since they won’t try to win, but on a team full of wings and guards, Jeremiah
Robinson-Earl could suddenly be a valuable player for this team. As a big, his two biggest skills were being a
solid shooter and a decent defender for a rookie last year. He showed potential as a rebounder, so I am
intrigued to see if he can improve at that end and how that helps the team.
Utah Jazz
Utah has just
entered a rebuild at what might wind up being the perfect time to do so
(although ironically just before the season they will be hosting the All-Star
Game). I currently have them not in last
because they have a few veterans that might wind up resulting in too many wins
still on their roster. On second
thought, “a few veterans” can largely be boiled down to Mike Conley, who I hope
for his sake ends up being traded soon since he is still a good player. Some other veterans who might want to live in
a suitcase include Kelly Olynyk, Malik Beasley, Jordan Clarkson, and Rudy Gay
(if hell freezes over on that one…or if he can play better than last
season). In the meantime, they seem to
just be collecting anyone possible, so their roster is full of younger players
who are score first options or just outright big. Some of the more experienced young players include
Collin Sexton coming off an injury, who is a good scorer and will probably
score a boatload of points, Lauri Markkanen, who will probably play his more
natural position at the 4 and have more opportunities to showcase his shooting
and rebounding, Jarred Vanderbilt, an awesome athlete, finisher, and defender, and
Talen Horton-Tucker, a great athlete, solid defender, and decent finisher who
is coming off a tough season. Utah also
has Nickeil Alexander-Walker, an aggressive scorer who is inefficient, Ochai
Agbaji, a rookie who should be a quality 3-and-D player, Walker Kessler, a big
rookie with nice rim protection skills, Leandro Bolmaro, who had a pretty bad
rookie year last year but is a skilled player with shooting potential, and
Udoka Azubuike, who could be an interesting old-school center. It’ll be rough this year, but if they still
have some veterans it might not be rough enough to clinch a top pick.
X-Factor: I totally understand being pessimistic towards
what this team will be, but one player I love on the roster is Jarred
Vanderbilt. He is an elite athlete and
has utilized this athleticism to be a menace in the paint on offense and to
pester opponents on defense. He
absolutely has weaknesses: he can’t
shoot, he’s not a good passer, and he isn’t a good rim protector. That said, he is improving as a rebounder and
seems to be improving his basketball IQ, so he could wind up making a
difference if he continues to improve.
Houston Rockets
Let’s make no
mistake about it: this team is more than
likely not going to be good this season just because they are so young and probably
won’t be great defensively, but I love what they have done and am so excited
for their future. While some would argue
they should have picked Evan Mobley last year, I wouldn’t be too mad about
getting Jalen Green since he looks like a bona fide star already; his playing
style reminds me of Anthony Edwards or Zach LaVine and had an awesome finish to
the season, making me so excited about what he will be. I loved the selection of Jabari Smith since I
think he is one of the best shooters in this draft class and could be one of the
best defenders from it (not to mention that he was my favorite player in the
draft); he might not put up the same numbers as Paolo Banchero this season, but
I think he is a perfect supporting cast member.
As for the remainder of the team, they have so many young players who
might do something and are worth keeping an eye on. These players include Kevin Porter, a nice
athlete who has changed from score-first guard with an iffy jumper to a decent
playmaker with a good jumper, though he has had off court issues, Alperen
Sengun, a center who analytics love the potential of due to his playmaking
ability, Kenyon Martin Jr., who is an awesome athlete and better shooter than I
expected, though he might not remain with the team long-term, Tari Eason, a
nice shooting rookie who looks like he might be better than I expected to start
defensively, Usman Garuba, a young but athletic forward with defensive
potential, Josh Christopher, a great athlete with potential as a shooter, Ty-Ty
Washington, a raw young point guard who I think could be a good playmaker and
solid shooter, Bruno Fernando, who is an awesome athlete but incredibly raw,
and Daishen Nix, a raw young player with upside due to size and athleticism. They also have some quality veterans in Jae’Sean
Tate, a great finisher and defender, Garrison Matthews, a sharpshooter, Eric
Gordon, a nice scorer and shooter who might finally be saved from this team during
this season, and Boban Marjanovic, who is big, fun, and looks like a superstar
if you look at his per-36 numbers and ignore the fact he plays 5-10 minutes a
game. In short, there are a ton of
exceptional athletes on this team that are all really young; I think the
shooting could be better than it was last season and there’s potential the defense
is a tad better, but they’re young, they’ll make tons of mistakes. This season is more about who will be on the
team in the future and what they could provide.
X-Factor: I don’t think there is anyone who will be the
x-factor because the team won’t be good enough to have one, but if this team is
better than expected, I imagine Alperen Sengun will be a big reason why. He looks like he is already a good playmaker
(though a bit reckless), was better defensively than I expected (albeit against
mostly backups), and shot from a better percent from the line than I expected,
making me wonder if he can shoot. If he
can shoot or defend better than I expect him to this season, they could be
closer to the Play-In games than not.
San Antonio
Spurs
This is going to be
rough to watch since San Antonio won’t even be trying to win, but there are
still some bright things to watch. Keldon
Johnson looks like he is going to be really good, as he is an efficient scorer,
good shooter, and skilled in multiple facets on offense. Devin Vassell also looked good and is a
player I expect will be a talented 3-and-D player. For the remaining players, let’s first focus
on the veterans who might be traded, which include Jakob Poeltl, an awesome rim
protector and finisher, Doug McDermott, an elite shooter, Josh Richardson, a
solid defender and decent shooter, and Gorgui Dieng, a backup big who can shoot
and defend some. The remaining young
players on the team include Tre Jones, a steady solid point guard, Zach
Collins, a stretch big with a boatload of potential who can’t stay healthy,
Jeremy Sochan, a raw rookie who has potential as a defender and playmaker, Josh
Primo, an athletic young player who has a boatload of potential, Malaki
Branham, a rookie who is a great shooter, Romeo Langford, who has potential as
a finisher and defender, Isaiah Roby, who seems to be a solid shooter and
finisher, Blake Wesley, a rookie score first guard who is raw and not quite
efficient yet, and Keita Bates-Diop, an awesome athlete and finisher with
defensive potential. While possible Gregg
Popovich might pull out his hair, there will be a lot of development and hopes
that they end up with a top pick in the draft.
X-Factor: While Tre Jones will be the starting point
guard, there are rumors that they are intrigued by the idea of Josh Primo at
point guard. While young and raw as a
rookie, he showed glimpses of ball handling skills occasional playmaking skills
that caught me off guard a bit. He is an
exceptional athlete and has potential as a shooter as well; improving his playmaking
and filling the role of point guard could not only make him more interesting
but also make the team tougher to guard for smaller guards.
Who do you think will win this season? What are you looking forward to? Let me know in the comments!
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