Partial Season Observations

So far in the season, I have gotten to watch at least a little bit of each team, and I have some observations about each team.  While some of these were written prior to a winning/losing streak or a significant injury, they should be applicable for each entry.

 

 

Atlanta Hawks:  They might have some issues

The immediate focus of the issues in Atlanta would probably be the spat between Trae Young and coach Nate McMillan that resulted in Young not attending a game; while this doesn’t sound like an isolated situation (especially since there were reports that the team tended to side with McMillan), I’m going to focus more on playing style.  They acquired Dejounte Murray to help with defense and ease the offensive burden of Young, but their defense isn’t great and Young has the ball in his hands almost as much as ever.  Their offense has not been good, and there’s a few reasons.  The most obvious one when looking at stats is that their 3’s are not falling, causing them to shoot a ton of shots from 2 despite them shooting below average from there (though part of that is because Young, Murray, and De’Andre Hunter haven’t been good from 2 but are taking a ton of shots from inside the arc).  The most obvious source of their struggles from 3 is actually Young, who is below 30% on the season.  Something I don’t think gets talked about enough that I’ve written about in the past is that Young is actually a really streaky shooter for his reputation and will experience stretches where he can’t hit shots from deep.  Part of that is shot selection, which is something I thought would improve with Murray, but part of the reason I think it hasn’t stems from another obvious source of offensive struggles when watching their games:  I don’t believe either Young or Murray are moving enough off the ball.  While Murray moves some off the ball (though it would help to move more), Young appears to be stationary once he gives up the ball until he gets it back, making him a much easier assignment than he should be without the ball.  I’m not saying he has to run around like crazy or set a boatload of screens, but not moving is doing the defense a favor and making it so much harder on himself to score.  It wouldn’t surprise me if the Hawks decide that the best solution to their internal issues are to bring in another name, but I wouldn’t do that considering how poorly the Young-Murray pairing has been so far.

 

Boston Celtics:  This team is legitimately amazing

There appeared to be reason for concern in Boston to start the season after head coach Ime Udoka was suspended for the season and replaced by 34-year-old rookie head coach Joe Mazzulla, newly signed Danilo Gallinari tour his ACL and was ruled out for the season, and Robert Williams was announced to miss the start of the season due to knee surgery.  Instead, the Celtics have been off to a scorching start, as they have the best record, net rating, and offense in the league.  They are near the top of the league in 3P%, 2P%, and FT% while rarely turning the ball over and shooting almost as many 3’s as 2’s (normally that is absurd, but the Celtics are currently shooting so well from 3 that analytically it’s a good idea).  The biggest shock offensively might be that they are playing at a league average pace, which vastly differs from the slow pace they operated at last year.  Jayson Tatum is playing like an MVP candidate on both ends and wants to guard the best player on the other team and Jaylen Brown has been playing his way into All-NBA conversation, but their supporting cast has also made this possible.  They don’t have many (if any) bad shooters in their rotation and feature several players topping 40% from deep, including Malcolm Brogdon, Sam Hauser, Grant Williams, Derrick White, and Al Horford.  How has this happened to a team that was often stagnant last year?  First off, Mazzulla has shown that he is a brilliant offensive mind who has earned the trust of the entire team, especially his stars.  He has convinced the team to buy in on making additional passes to create the best open looks, which is part of their drastic increase in assists and assist rate from last year.  Another part of that is that Marcus Smart has improved so much as a playmaker to the point that I would consider him a good to very good point guard.  Lastly, the addition of Malcolm Brogdon has been essential since he has been such an amazing decision maker for them on offense, something they were desperately missing late in the playoffs last season.  Their defense started out rough, but it has improved since some bad luck with shots have settled a bit.  While this was the reason they were so good last year, they are missing Robert Williams, who is their best defender (with all due respect to reigning Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart).  Their rim protection should improve in that case, which hasn’t been as good as the Celtics would like.  I don’t think they’ll keep their offense up for the entire season.  The most obvious reason is that when Robert Williams returns, they won’t have 5-out lineups when he plays, which will be fine since their defense should improve if he has recovered fully.  On top of that, there will be games where they struggle and revert to some bad habits, something they have shown at points during some games.  There will be times when their shots don’t fall (especially later in the season if they get tired), they get sloppy with the ball, and they play more isolation ball.  In particular, there are a lot of times where Brown makes it clear that he is going to try to score and not pass it (which is majority of the times he has the ball).  That said, it’s been fun to watch so far and they’ve been better than everyone else despite missing one of their key players.

 

Brooklyn Nets:  Ben Simmons will need time

Look, I get it, the popular thing to do is to make fun of how much of how terrible he’s been upon coming back after the playoff collapse and to reimagine him as a terrible player, but he is an amazing player who is coming back from missing a year while trying to integrate himself into a new system that happens to be a circus at times.  Prior to the holdout in Philadelphia, Simmons was one of the best defensive players in the league (if not the best) and had ability as a playmaker and finisher (though didn’t shoot as much as I imagine most would have liked).  So far, when healthy, Simmons has had his struggles fitting in with the team:  he has been often less willing to shoot, looks uncertain at times off the ball, and has struggled to make the defense respectable with several poor defenders around him.  That said, there are glimpses of him making the right plays.  He had a 6-game run where he topped 10 points in each, including scoring 22 on an 11-13 night.  He also has not seemed as tentative shooting free throws and has still been aggressive finding the right passes (though he was overpassing early in the season).  Even his defense has gotten better as the season went on.  One play I want to highlight is a play that was against the Knicks early in the season (while he was struggling offensively).  He missed a shot on offense that he probably could have gotten prior to last season and was behind the play after momentum pushed him out of bounds.  He saw that Jalen Brunson, who had the ball, was slowing down and setting the offense up without paying attention to directly behind him, so he angled himself perfectly for a sneak steal which turned into a transition 3.  It could take a lot of the season for him to get back, but he’ll get there; he's shown enough glimpses that I’m not worried about him long term.  The good news is that the Nets have been amazing lately, so they can afford this time.

 

Charlotte Hornets:  I might have been wrong about Dennis Smith Jr.

The 2017 Draft was special for me because that was the first in which I paid more attention to it and attempted to scout.  It also contained some of my more accurate predictions, as I was lower on some guys than consensus who struggled (i.e., Markelle Fultz and Josh Jackson) and higher than consensus on others who played well (i.e., Donovan Mitchell, De’Aaron Fox, and Jayson Tatum).  Of course I was incorrect about some players (I was low on Bam Adebayo and held Malik Monk in the same regard I held Tatum, which was high), but I was convinced at that time that the biggest bust in the first round was going to be Dennis Smith Jr.  I felt that he wasn’t a skilled enough player to make it in the NBA and relied too heavily on his athleticism which, while elite for college, I feared was merely above average to good in the NBA.  I seemed so right about this but am willing to totally concede my skepticism about him based on this season in Charlotte.  He improved his playmaking and decision making while in Portland last year, which has kept up in Charlotte.  As for his shot selection, it has improved greatly, resulting in a career high in eFG% thus far and an improved clip from behind the line.  The way he has done this is by focusing most of his shots within 3 feet of the rim (where he is shooting a career best) or behind the arc.  Each of his baskets from behind the arc has come off an assist, which I think has helped out his percentages.  Even when he drives inside, he’s not solely focused on sprinting to the rim; rather, he has gotten better at changing his speed, using his strength to get open, and picking up a double team to kick out to a teammate.  Unfortunately, he has been injured without a timeline to return for several games now, which is typical since we can’t have nice things.  That said, I love when I’m wrong about a player that I wasn’t a big fan of in any draft, so I’m excited to see Smith play so well this year, especially since Charlotte has so little that has gone right for them.

 

Chicago Bulls:  We are still experiencing DeMar DeRozan’s prime

I can’t begin to deny that Chicago’s season has been a tad rough:  their big 3 of DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Nikola Vucevic have struggled together, Lonzo Ball has yet to play due to injury, LaVine hasn’t looked as good since his surgery (though he’s been a bit better lately), Vucevic has moments where he’s passed up open shots, and several role players don’t seem up to the role they’re in at times, there is one thing to look forward to during every Bulls game, which is DeRozan’s play.  While maybe a tiny bit worse than last season statistically, he is still putting up amazing numbers this season.  His 3 has regressed back to his normal, but his 2P% and FT% have both increased while he is getting to the line more.  His playmaking has still been good, though he’s not necessarily the primary ball handler on this team.  If you like dunking, he’s also dunking his highest rate since 2012-13.  He often scores in the 20’s, but he has had several games that topped 30, most notably a game against the Celtics on November 4th, where he scored 46 points on 13-23 from the field and 20-22 from the line.  In a game where none of his teammates could get going, he was a +10 while the team lost by 4.  That’s the type of season he’s having, one where he is filling it up and being productive for the Bulls despite the remainder of the team not playing at the same level.

 

Cleveland Cavaliers:  This team is a lot of fun

I would like to point out that this team has also been very good this season and saying that they’re fun is not implying that they are not great.  It is also weird to say that they are fun considering they operate at such a slow pace and are close to league average offensively, but there’s a lot of fun things to watch.  If you want offense, any given possession offensively you get to wonder how they will operate, especially since they play a lot of isolation with their star guards, Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland.  Mitchell has been freakishly efficient considering the shots he takes and while Garland has struggled from certain locations within the arc, he has still scored a lot and shot well from deep.  There are also many plays where you have to be ready for an Evan Mobley or Jarrett Allen dunk, something you can expect from each multiple times a game.  Even while your turn-my turn offense is not often something efficient for offenses and can cause problems with egos, so far everyone seems willing to step aside when one player is on a roll.  If you want defense, they have been amazing at that end this year, which is no surprise considering Mobley and Allen are incredible defenders, but some of their role players have been strong defensively, and even Mitchell is trying on that end and playing well, something that couldn’t often be said while he was in Utah.  If you want lineup drama, there’s still the mystery about who will be their starting or finishing small forward.  They have tried Caris LaVert (who I like more off the bench given his ball dominance and defensive struggles), Dean Wade (who I like as a big 3-and-D forward and might be the best bet in the role), Lamar Stevens (a physical defender who is an underrated athlete), and Isaac Okoro (who has been great defensively but terrible offensively, so he’s probably a no); they also have Cedi Osman, who has a case for the role if he can shoot better.  If you want a feel-good story, you can continue to root for Kevin Love as he has embraced the sixth man role and thrives as a shooting and rebounding forward.  I expect they will have their struggles at points, but even still I expect to continue to enjoy watching them.

 

Dallas Mavericks:  I’m worried about Luka Doncic

After Jalen Brunson joined the Knicks and the Mavericks didn’t replace the ball handling minutes, I started to get a bit worried since the remaining ball handlers on the Mavericks would be Luka Doncic and Spencer Dinwiddie.  The issue with this is that Doncic has the ball in his hands frequently, which is good overall since he’s good on the ball but isn’t good in regard to exhaustion.  His usage rate is a career high, which isn’t surprising to see since Brunson left.  He also came into training camp in better shape than ever after playing in the Euro tournament, which is great for the Mavericks for now.  He’s playing at an amazing level, especially when finishing inside the arc.  That said, it reminds me a bit of how James Harden played in Houston, where he had the ball in his hands the majority of the time.  The thing I’m nervous about is that Harden always faded in the playoffs, something that appeared to me like exhaustion.  Doncic has a higher usage rate than almost all of Harden’s seasons, puts in effort on defense (unlike Harden), and already looks tired at the end of some games.  This could be a rough end of season and playoffs for the Mavericks if they stand pat.

 

Denver Nuggets:  It’ll take most of the season for them to look like their prime

This might be shocking to say this considering they are near the top in the West, but I don’t believe they are playing at what their ceiling can be.  The most obvious issue for them right now is the fact that their defense is not good.  I can’t say this is too surprising since arguably their best 3 players (Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr.) are not known as great defenders, ranging from solid (Jokic) to outright horrible (Porter).  Porter has moments where he appears to try, but having him on the court for significant stretches will be detrimental to their offense, leading to a nice catch-22 since his offense is so valuable.  Jamal Murray appears to still be getting used to playing in the NBA again, which is to be expected after missing a season and a half due to injury; he still has his struggles with finishing and recognizing the matchups he can succeed at, but I expect he will continue to improve in both aspects as the season progresses.  Porter has also dealt with some injuries, limiting his minutes, but he’s still been shooting very well.  Jokic has been struggling from 3, but is scoring at an insane rate from everywhere else and is having another MVP-type season; I think the 3 could improve as Murray improves, as his best season from 3 occurred as Murray and Porter were hitting their stride (prior to Murray’s injury).  It is also worth noting that Aaron Gordon is having the best efficiency season of his career, which I think is sustainable since he is the 4th option for the first time in his career and has such nice spacing around him, as well as one of the best big playmakers of all time in Jokic.  Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope also appear to be perfect fits for this team, as both are shooting well and are nice players to have defending in switches.  Neither player appears to have an ego with how much the ball should be in their hands on offense and are able to make it work off the ball.  This team has looked so good, but I think they could (and will) look better later in the season.

 

Detroit Pistons:  This team is very young and inexperienced

There was a lot of hope about this team being reminiscent of Memphis entering the year and making a big jump, but they’ve been pretty bad.  Their defense is atrocious, and their offense isn’t much better, resulting in them being one of the worst teams this year.  Their offense is largely due to some poor shooting, but I think a big part of that is due to Cade Cunningham’s season ending surgery after just 12 games.  As for the team individually, Cunningham struggled shooting and was inconsistent defensively, but he’s only 21.  Jaden Ivey hasn’t been efficient and has had struggles adjusting to the NBA, but he’s only 20.  Saddiq Bey has struggled mightily with his shot and has occasionally looked lost defensively, but he’s only 23.  Isaiah Stewart has developed a jumper but has been a bit underwhelming defensively and is struggling with the ball in his hands, but he’s only 21.  Jalen Duren has been a great finisher but looks like a rookie, but he’s only 19.  A few other players who might have potential but are young and inconsistent include Killian Hayes (21), Isaiah Livers (24), Marvin Bagley (23), Kevin Knox (23), and Hamidou Diallo (24).  I wouldn’t be surprised if they go all in on trying to get one of the top picks in this draft and trade some veterans that could net a return.  Bojan Bogdanovic is the most obvious to be traded, but I also could see them exploring options for Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel, and Cory Joseph.  I think this team could be better next year with Cunningham back and everyone a year older, but it is also possible that several players don’t develop linearly.  That said, I expect this year will continue to be rough for them.

 

Golden State Warriors:  Their bench is not good

Golden State certainly got off to an atrocious start and now Steph Curry is injured and out for at least a few weeks, which suggests a rough ride might be ahead for them.  That said, I wanted to discuss the issues related to their bench prior to this injury update.  When healthy, their starting lineup of Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney has been amazing on both ends despite lesser results than used to from Thompson and Green.  Some of their bench veterans were not resigned due to the expectation that their younger players could make a jump, something that I thought was fair at that time.  Well, I think it’s safe to say that they were wrong (as was I), as their bench has been a major weak point for this team.  I will first say that Donte DiVincenzo has had inconsistencies finishing but has fit really well on both ends, and Anthony Lamb is one of their best bench players while on a 2-Way deal.  Jordan Poole has been better while in the starting lineup, which is concerning since they were banking on him providing an offensive punch off the bench, where he has struggled with consistency and shot selection.  Their major veteran free agent signing this offseason, JaMychal Green, has been okay fit wise, but has been pretty terrible shooting and not great defensively.  They haven’t gotten a big jump from Jonathan Kuminga, who has moments of greatness and other moments of being totally lost, Moses Moody, who I think has been better than Kuminga but hasn’t received the trust of the coaching staff, and James Wiseman, who is clearly incredibly raw and not ready to play for a winning team.  I’m not sure at this point what I would do if I were in their shoes, but I think the next few weeks will be telling without Curry.

 

Houston Rockets:  They will need a point guard for the future

While certainly young, raw, and inconsistent, I love a lot of what Houston has done with their young team.  They have a potential star in Jalen Green, an athletic and aggressive 2-guard with a scoring mindset.  A few other players who good be key pieces of their future (if all goes well and they’re not stars) are rookie Jabari Smith, who looks like he has potential as a bigger shooting and defending forward, Alperen Sengun, a big who appears to have a really nice passing stroke, and Kevin Porter, an athletic and aggressive scorer who has had off-court issues in his young career.  They also have some other nice younger players, including Tari Eason, a good defender and solid shooter, Jae’Sean Tate, a smart player on both ends, Kenyon Martin Jr., an athletic forward who is already a solid contributor on offense, and Garrison Matthews, a nice shooter.  Some younger guys with potential on the team include guards TyTy Washington, Daishen Nix, and Josh Christopher, and bigs Usman Garuba and Bruno Fernando.  There is one big question with their current future:  do they have a point guard to run the show in the future?  They’ve tried to have Porter be their guard since he has passing potential, but he is reckless, not the best decision maker, and often favors his own shots over offensive flow.  Currently, I think their best bet is hoping Washington pans out, but waiting could hinder the development of their young players; I expect Green and Porter could develop bad habits with the ball in their hands so much while Smith likely won’t get the touches to showcase how skilled he is in the catch-and-shoot.  If they can get a veteran backup-level point guard who is a good playmaker in a trade involving Eric Gordon, I would accept it since that is best for the development of their young players.

 

Indiana Pacers:  I’m not certain I would trade Myles Turner or Buddy Hield

I want to note that this could change as the trade deadline approaches, especially since they’re around .500 and are playing a tad bit better than their net rating would indicate.  That said, this team is a lot of fun and I honestly have some second thoughts about being willing to get rid of Myles Turner or Buddy Hield for less than a very good package.  They have around a league average offense and defense, yet they play at a fast pace and take a ton of 3’s (though they turn the ball over a lot).  The two biggest reasons for this excitement are Tyrese Haliburton and Bennedict Mathurin.  Haliburton is looking like an All-Star point guard who can shoot at a high clip and be an exceptional playmaker who wants to help others score.  Mathurin is a freak athlete wing who is oozing with confidence, finishing crazy plays, and has a nice shot.  They also have so many young players that make sense for the future, including Andrew Nembhard, a rookie combo guard who looks really good on both ends, Aaron Nesmith, a really athletic shooter who seems to be coming to his own now that he’s getting the playing time he wasn’t in Boston, Jalen Smith, a forward whose jumper isn’t falling as expected this year but is still a solid big forward, Chris Duarte, who has struggled since coming back from injury but is a nice shooting wing, and Isaiah Jackson, who is young and raw with a long way to go, but could be an awesome rim running athletic big.  Even with all their youth, Turner and Hield fit perfectly with their playing style.  Turner is playing the best offense of his career and is a big who can finish and shoot on offense while being an elite rim protector on defense; it is also worth noting that he is only 26 and is not that much older than their young core.  Hield is a bit older (30) but is one of the best shooters in the league, which is the type of player that fits perfectly with the playmaking of Haliburton.  While Turner’s contract expires after this year and he has expressed a desire to leave, I wonder if playing with guys as exciting as Haliburton and Mathurin (and as talented a playmaker as Haliburton is) could make him want to stay and resign instead.

 

Los Angeles Clippers:  Their offense is rough

Before I start this observation, it is worth noting that their offense has looked better recently as they have increased their ball movement and coach Ty Lue has implemented some plays that fit the roster.  It also should be noted that their defense has been amazing this year even while trying and they are still getting Kawhi Leonard back, so maybe all of this is for naught.  That said, their playmaking is pretty bad, so their offense is clunky.  John Wall is the only playmaker I trust on this team (no, I don’t trust Leonard, Paul George, or Reggie Jackson to create good looks for others consistently), and even he has always been more scoring motivated than people like to admit (not that there’s anything wrong with that).  They also play at an infuriatingly slow pace, but I’m not too shocked by that.  As such, an annoyingly large part of their game is made up of post-ups, even in situations where there isn’t a mismatch.  It’s one thing to have Leonard or George posting up since Leonard is elite at it and George is good enough, but the rest of their team shouldn’t be doing that often.  There was one game earlier in the season where in a few minute span, Marcus Morris, Norman Powell, and John Wall all posted up on the guy who was defending them, none of them being a mismatch.  The issue isn’t that nobody should do post-ups, but rather that it isn’t the most efficient shot for many players and that by moving around or passing the offense could generate a much better attempt.  I turned off the game a few minutes later after Reggie Jackson tried posting up a guy bigger than him.

 

Los Angeles Lakers:  They’re…something?  Who knows with them

I think there are two words that best describe the state of this team:  weird and confusing.  They started out the season at a historically bad shooting rate and couldn’t win, then went on a hot streak to get up close to .500, then dealt with injuries and are now near the bottom again.  Losing Anthony Davis to injuries for a month is a massive blow, especially since he was playing so well.  When he is healthy though, what are they, the team that was one of the worst offenses in the NBA or a coherent playoff team?  It depends; while on this tear, Anthony Davis was playing among the best basketball of his career and was looking like an MVP candidate, which is needed for them to make the playoffs.  If he plays like that and LeBron James also is playing like a top-10 player (even at 38 is reasonable), then they can be a playoff level team, though their ceiling is limited in my view.  As for the rest of the lineup, it’s a grab bag of intriguing players that I don’t love, but Darvin Ham has seemed to figure out some things related to them.  The biggest is that he was given the freedom to have Russell Westbrook come of the bench, which has allowed him to play on the ball more; while he is largely playing like Russell Westbrook (ball in his hands a lot, shooting inefficiently, getting a lot of assists, etc.), there are some bright spots, including his defensive effort, movement being better when playing with LeBron, and his passing being absolutely incredible.  Lonnie Walker, Troy Brown, and Austin Reaves are all shooting career bests from 3, and while I’m not sure how real Walker’s numbers are, the others seem legit; Thomas Bryant is also shooting at an unreal clip from 3 on a small sample size, which definitely seems fluky.  Dennis Schröder in LA round 2 also seem to be working better than the first time around, so we’ll see how long it lasts.  I don’t see them making a massive trade during the season, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them trade Patrick Beverly, as the fit is weird with him and he has struggled mightily.  Prior to Davis being injured, I was starting to believe they could make the playoffs; with Davis injured long-term, I don’t see it.

 

Memphis Grizzlies:  Despite bad luck, I feel super confident about them

Going into the season, I had them finishing 4th due to uncertainty regarding how long Jaren Jackson would be out, but had them making it to the NBA Championship (had Jackson been healthy from the start, I likely would have had them finishing first in the West during the regular season).  So far, the expected starting lineup has played 0 minutes together and their big 3 of Ja Morant, Jackson, and Desmond Bane hasn’t shared the court due to injuries, yet they are still dominating this season both offensively and defensively.  While he hasn’t been that good inside the arc compared to usual, Morant has been awesome as a scorer, playmaker, and rebounder and has been solid at shooting.  Upon returning from injury, Jackson has been amazing on both ends of the floor and is showing why scouts were so excited about him as a shooting/finishing big man who thrived on defense.  Prior to his injury, Bane was looking like a star player who was hitting every shot imaginable; if he continues to shoot at the rate he did prior to his injury, he will be valuable no matter what upon returning.  Even their role players haven’t been spared from injury, as Ziaire Williams, who looks an awesome young athlete developing with amazing potential, was out for a good chunk of the season to start the year, while I thought he was ready to play bigger minutes this year.  This team appears to be so deep with players that fit with this team, including Dillon Brooks, a pesky defender who is shooting at an okay rate this year (though I’d prefer he didn’t shoot as much as he does), Tyus Jones, who is possibly the best backup point guards in the game who is also great off the ball, Brandon Clarke, a nice 2-way forward in the paint who fits nicely with Jackson, Steven Adams, one of the strongest players in basketball who is a nice defender and screen setter, a nice shooter who is looking like a good defender as well, Santi Aldama, a big who looks like a really good finisher, solid shooter, and quality defender, rookie Jake LaRavia, a solid shooter and decent defender for a rookie, and David Roddy, a rookie who has his struggles on both ends, but is a decent finisher, smart, and looks like he fits on an NBA court, something I wasn’t certain about.  Overall, this team meshes so well and makes me feel even better about them making it to the NBA Finals.

 

Miami Heat:  This is not the Miami Heat we have been accustomed to

This is an interesting Miami Heat team since they’re worse than last year, though the biggest difference in personnel is losing P.J. Tucker.  That said, Tucker is not what would cause the team to go from a top-10 offense to a bottom-10 offense.  This year, despite an MVP-type season from Jimmy Butler and recent improvements from Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro after slow starts, their offense is clunky.  When Butler is off the court and both Herro and Adebayo are on the court (which usually happens when Butler isn’t on the court and is available that game), their offense uses the same few plays involving those two, often rotating which one has the ball.  When Adebayo has the ball, he takes it at the top of the key and there are some off-ball screens while the paint is cleared (most of the time), with the result being either Adebayo drives to the rim, takes a midrange shot, passes to an open shooter, or gives it to Herro.  If Herro has the ball, typically Adebayo sets a screen for Herro to the left of the top of the arc and Herro either shoots of the screen, plays one-on-one with the mismatch, or gives it back to Adebayo, who often doesn’t roll to the rim and instead goes to the key (often on the right side).  While they are good defensively, they appear to make more mistakes than most Miami teams I am used to.  While the team plays tough at times on that end, I’ve seen many situations where they appear to be confused on defensive switches and lose their man more than I am accustomed to.  While this could be chalked up to it being early, there have also been instances where there is a lack of accountability; on one play in a Celtics game, the guy Kyle Lowry was guarding scored on a fast break opportunity and he yelled at his two teammates trailing the play, appearing to take issue with the fact that they didn’t get back even though they were sprinting back and Lowry gave poor defensive effort.

 

Milwaukee Bucks:  This team is amazing

While the Celtics have been amazing due to their offense and have been closer to average defensively, Milwaukee has been the opposite, as they have the league’s best defense with an average offense.  I’ll start by saying that a big part of the dip in offense was due to Khris Middleton’s absence to start the year; once he gets more time back from injury, I expect both he and Milwaukee’s offense will improve.  As for their defense, the combination of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, and Brook Lopez has been absolutely dominant defensively.  Antetokounmpo is an amazing both individual and team defender; he is often used as a floater and focusing on specific players when necessary.  I believe coach Mike Budenholzer cracked the code with Lopez by having him drop into the paint and protect the rim, which he is elite at; since Antetokounmpo and Holiday, who are both so athletic, are on the team, they can switch onto a defender that Lopez left open if needed and for the best.  Holiday is such an athletic, physical, and smart defender, which makes it so difficult to get past him as he knows how to be physical and when he can get away with it.  From a team standpoint, the Bucks have gotten more competitive with defending the 3, as they went from allowing near the most in the league per game to allowing a bottom-10 number of attempts; this has also been indicative of how Antetokounmpo has played defense, as they have had him guard perimeter players more than they have in the past.  Since Lopez is back and is an elite rim protector, I think this is okay to do, though I would consider adjusting this for different teams.  As for the remainder of the team, they really just need competence defensively, which for the most part they have gotten, as Jevon Carter has been great and Grayson Allen, Bobby Portis, George Hill, Wes Matthews, and MarJon Beauchamp have all been at least competent on defense.

 

Minnesota Timberwolves:  I think I was wrong about this team

I was very high on this team for the regular season prior to the season since I thought so many players on this team had so much to prove, yet for whatever reason almost nobody has been able to.  First, I thought Anthony Edwards was ready to prove that he is a great player, but instead showed up to camp heavier and has spent more time complaining about the lane being clogged than dunking (I don’t think it’s only the lack of spacing that is impacting his dunking).  Next, Karl-Anthony Towns said he wanted to win, but appears to be disengaged or apathetic to winning plays on both ends.  I thought D’Angelo Russell would be ready to prove his value since he’s in his contract year, but I’m not sure he’s proven he’s more than a mid-level exception player if a quality team is even interested in (though he has been more efficient as of late).  In general, I thought that Towns and Russell need to be taking more 3’s than 2’s, and neither are doing so; in fact, Russell is shooting a lower percentage of 3’s attempted this year than last season.  If you have Edwards (who has made it clear he prefers open lanes to the rim), Jaden McDaniels (who has shot well from 3 but is better closer to the rim), and Rudy Gobert (who you don’t want shooting), Towns and Russell need to shoot more 3’s, which is a big part of why I thought the Gobert-Towns duo would work.  Instead, they’ve played at a fast pace but haven’t been good at scoring.  That said, their rim protection has been better, but their defense isn’t great because Edwards has been unreliable on that end while Russell and Towns have been their normal underwhelming selves.  Even with Towns out, Gobert hasn’t seized the moment and looks useless at points offensively, even on a mismatch in the paint.  They’ve been using Kyle Anderson in the lineup, which might be the right call if you’re looking for an additional playmaker and shooter, though I’d also love to see them play Jordan McLaughlin at points instead and operate with a faster lineup.  So far, the results have been mixed on both ends, which included some losses against weaker teams.  Their team has a ceiling of Edwards 2-way play, especially at the defensive end.  So far they’re average; maybe they figure it out later in the year, but I think they need a more consistent point guard and an additional 2-way shooter.

 

New Orleans Pelicans:  They got really good really fast

I know this may sound a bit ridiculous to say considering the fact that we’d expect progression to occur after a team has been competing for the playoffs over their last few seasons and has their star player back, but come on, this good?  Last year, the Pelicans 1-12 over their first 13, 8-21 over their first 29, and were still 23-36 at the All-Star break before finishing the season 36-46 to snag the 8 seed in the West.  At the time of writing, they’re in first in the West and have improved on offense thanks to the addition of Zion Williamson, who has dominated the paint and in transition on offense; that said, I think their offense will get better as CJ McCollum improves his shot (I figure that will happen) and their team gets more used to each other.  On that end, they also have Brandon Ingram, who has shown he is a star, Jonas Valanciunas, who is a good finisher, but I don’t love on this team with his penchant for post-ups and fade aways, clogging the paint/midrange, and a lineup full of great shooters (such as Trey Murphy, Devonte’ Graham, and Jose Alvarado) and finishers (such as Larry Nance Jr. and Dyson Daniels).  The biggest shock and reason for the massive jump is their defense.  They went from having a below average defense over the last few seasons to having one of the best in the league this season.  The key cog of their defense is Herb Jones, who is skilled, physical, and smart defender who has the size to guard bigger players and athleticism and speed to guard smaller players as well; he has looked like an All-Defense Team player so far this year.  Alvarado is known for his gimmicky sneak steal plays, but he is a pesky defender who also has underrated speed.  Some of their other plus defenders include Nance, an awesome athlete who knows how to use his athleticism, Murphy, a 3-and-D player who looks really good at defending wings, Daniels, a rookie with a long wingspan who appears to have a knowledge of the game that exceeds his age of 19, Naji Marshall, a versatile wing who is nice on switches, and even Ingram, who plays hard and has grown knowledgeable about positioning and utilizing his size.  I think Williamson has been coasting a bit on defense so far, but I’m willing to give some leeway since he missed all of last year.  All in all, this team is awesome, and Willie Green has been the perfect coach for them.

 

New York Knicks:  Jalen Brunson is the perfect point guard for them

Last season, the Knicks had an atrocious offense, played at among the slowest pace in the NBA, had the fewest assists, and weren’t at all efficient.  This year, they have improved in each of those stats and have one of the best offenses in the NBA.  There are several factors that play a role here, including an increase in offensive rebounding and Tom Thibodeau’s reluctance to finally play some younger players.  That said, the most important element to this is the addition of Jalen Brunson.  Brunson is steady with the ball in his hands, a good scorer, and a nice playmaker.  On a team that includes players who struggle with shot selection and (at times) turnovers in Julius Randle and RJ Barrett, they needed somebody to be their go-to point guard to improve the offense.  They didn’t have an answer last year as Derrick Rose was okay and every other option they tried wasn’t going to get it done as the starter.  The addition of Brunson has given them somebody who can operate the offense in a more efficient way, whether by making sure others are in the right place or by scoring himself.  Their eFG% is still not that good, but that will happen when Randle and Barrett are among the team leaders in field goals attempted.  I think a better indicator on an individual level is how Quentin Grimes and Obi Toppin are shooting from the field.  I think there is a serious All-Star case for Brunson, especially since the Knicks are on a run.

 

Oklahoma City Thunder:  They’re closer to competing than they want to be

Oklahoma City has made it no secret that they have been tanking for a couple years, as they have acquired a shocking number of picks and have tried to get the top players in any given draft.  This year appeared to be the crown jewel of prospects that they have been waiting for, as Victor Wembanyama is expected to be drafted first and is one of the most hyped prospects of my lifetime, while players such as Scoot Henderson and the Thompson twins (among many others) are incredible consolation prizes.  However, there is a slight issue to that plan:  the team is too good to be the worst in the NBA.  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has emerged as a superstar this year, as he is scoring so efficiently and so much while being a nice playmaker and defender.  Josh Giddey looks to be improving his weaknesses (shooting and defending), which will be scarier for him since he already is a big playmaker.  They also have Lu Dort, who, while he has taken a step back in shooting, is still a solid 2-way wing, Jalen Williams, a rookie who has been better on both ends than expected (except with his jumper), Aleksej Pokusevski, who is no longer a strange experiment and now appears to be a good basketball player on both ends, Kenrich Williams, an awesome shooter and efficient scorer who has shown some defensive chops as well, Jerome Robinson-Earl, a big who can stretch the floor with ease, and Aaron Wiggins, who is a nice shooter.  They have also gotten contributions at points from Tre Mann, Darius Bazley, and Ousmane Dieng, who are all raw but have potential.  I think that not having Chet Holmgren helps them win this year since I thought he would struggle as a rookie (which instead might be interesting to watch next year).  I don’t expect they will make the playoffs this year, but they could end up later in the lottery.  They’re defense is average, and offense is poor (in large part since their shooting isn’t great), but they play at such a fast pace that they score a lot (though they give up a lot as a result).  The good news for the Thunder is that even if they miss out on the number 1 pick, there are still options available for them.  One is the fact that this draft is so loaded that even ending up in the late-lottery could be equivalent to a top-7 pick in most drafts.  The other is that they still have an obscene number of draft picks and some players who could be traded; if they can entice a team with the number 1 pick in the draft to take most of the picks they have available, we could see them still end up with the selection of their dreams.

 

Orlando Magic:  I love what they have going for their future

I will preface this by saying that isn’t a team that will win a lot of games this year, so when I say I love anything about this team, it is more focused long-term than short-term.  In the meantime, they are bad on both ends of the court and play at such a slow pace that doesn’t make sense to me with this team given their weaknesses, but I digress.  They took Paolo Banchero number 1 last year in the draft, and it appears to have been the right selection; he has been a good scorer and rebounder with potential as a playmaker as well.  On top of that, his defense (which was my biggest concern about him entering the draft) has been better than I expected, and his size makes him look like the perfect fit in the NBA already as a rookie at age 20.  Franz Wagner has also been really good, as he has shown improvement at both ends and looks like he can at least be good at scoring, finishing, shooting, playmaking, passing, and defending around the perimeter.  Wendell Carter Jr. was compared to Al Horford by many entering the 2018 Draft and has been showing why when healthy, as he has shown glimpses (at the minimum) of finishing, defending, shooting, rebounding, and passing.  I think Orlando has found a big 3 with these three, which is amazing they are 20, 21, and 23 respectively, and they also gained another pick when acquiring Carter.  They also have several other players who I like, including Jalen Suggs, who I loved entering last year’s draft and has shown improvement as a finisher, playmaker, and defender (though is dealing with an injury), Bol Bol, who has showcased his shot blocking and shooting (though not as often as many make it out to be for the latter) while also showcasing some brilliant finishing and rebounding, Cole Anthony, who looks like a good shooter and a score first guard, but can be reckless, Markelle Fultz, who when healthy looks like a point guard that Orlando needs in setting the offense up, R.J. Hampton, a nice athlete who is improving as a shooter, Caleb Houstan, a young shooter who can be a sharpshooter, Mo Bamba, one of the most infuriating players when off who can shot block and shoot incredibly well when on, Mo Wagner, who looks like a nice backup, and Chuma Okeke, a nice defender who probably shoots too many 3’s.  They’ll need a young guy to incorporate who can shoot, but they have a great core.

 

Philadelphia 76ers:  They are not going to do anything offensively as currently coached

I would like to preface this that I came up with this point prior to them playing better, but I still believe the point holds.  While they have been good defensively, I think part of that is due to better defensive lineups being used due to injuries and will be worse at full strength, ironically enough.  I also believe that, when healthy, there are flaws with how the offense is run, especially with the starting lineup.  They operate at such a slow pace, which is expected when James Harden and Joel Embiid, but Tyrese Maxey is athletic and fast enough that I think they can gain some more points by having him run out on the break some.  I don’t love Harden having the ball in his hands as much as he does; while his usage rate is lower than it’s been in a full season since he was in Oklahoma City, he still has a fairly high usage rate that is higher than his during his stint with Philadelphia last year.  I expect the order of ball control will be Embiid, Harden, and Maxey, though I would switch Harden and Maxey at this point.  Harden has suddenly taken so many midrange shots compared to normal since he no longer can get to the rim consistently.  I think Maxey getting the ball more than Harden will be better for their offense.  I also don’t love how Tobias Harris has been relegated to being effectively a corner 3-point shooter when he is also a solid player on the ball and an underrated cutter.  Lastly, I’d take P.J. Tucker out of the starting lineup and replace him with Danuel House.  I get that they brought in Tucker to be a physical defender who can rebound and shoot, but he hasn’t rebounded well and isn’t even taking shots; teams are best suited double-teaming Embiid and leaving Tucker wide open.  I can’t understand why they’ve kept him in the starting lineup while the offense continues to be average.

 

Phoenix Suns:  Something smells a bit fishy…might a surprise move occur?

It must be said that it is admirable that the Suns have played as well as they have despite injuries from Cam Johnson and Chris Paul and an odd holdout from Jae Crowder.  Overall, their offense has been great (in large part due to an MVP-caliber season from Devin Booker, who is now out for 4 weeks, and an awesome year from Mikal Bridges) and defense has been pretty good.  They’ve gotten some surprise performances from Torrey Craig and Jock Landale, who were thrust into important positions at points.  That said, there’s something missing in depth, especially at forward.  While Craig has filled in the role of starting 4 very well, they could use help with their injuries.  Crowder is the obvious player to trade, as multiple contenders have expressed interest in him at different points.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they also looked into the market for Landry Shamet since he is an awkward fit with this team and a good shooter.  The one that I am curious about is what happens with Deandre Ayton.  I feel like this is not a long-term marriage for reasons other than issues from last season or the offseason.  There is an interesting combination of Ayton seeming disengaged or disinterested in his role with the team, him playing fewer minutes, him abruptly not playing a ton of minutes in certain games, and the fact that I don’t believe they view him as a core piece.  I expect he will be more likely to be traded in the offseason since Indiana can’t trade for him this year (as much as I would love an Ayton-Myles Turner trade for both teams) and the fact that there aren’t a ton of teams looking for a starting center (maybe Charlotte?), but it is still worth keeping an eye on.

 

Portland Trail Blazers:  They’re fun, but I have my reservations

Portland has been an absolute blast to watch, especially on offense.  Damian Lillard healthy again is one of the greatest gifts that basketball can provide since he is such an amazing scorer and shooter while oozing with confidence.  They have a nice core around Lillard, as Anfernee Simons scores at a high rate efficiently, Jerami Grant has fit perfectly on both ends, Jusuf Nurkic has looked better than he has the last few years, Josh Hart has been such a good fit as a shooter, defender, and rebounder, Justice Winslow is a nice finisher and playmaker, and Shaedon Sharpe is entertaining enough with his athleticism and potential while he learns the NBA game.  That said, I don’t have high hopes that they will keep their early success up.  For one, Nurkic hasn’t played 60 games since prior to the Bubble season, and while Drew Eubanks has looked good for them, I think they will miss Nurkic if he misses significant time.  Also, their defense still isn’t all that good, which isn’t surprising considering the fact that they have several young players as well as a more offensive minded guard combo in Lillard and Simons (a bit reminiscent of Lillard and C.J. McCollum).  Additionally, Grant and Nurkic have been shooting well above their career numbers at the time of writing, something that I don’t count on continuing.  Lastly, Sharpe didn’t play college ball, so I expect he could hit a massive rookie wall, especially since he didn’t play in college.  I hope that I’m wrong since they are fun to watch, but I don’t feel confident that this run remains.

 

Sacramento Kings:  They’ve figured it out…on offense

I will say that I expected Sacramento to have an amazing offense, but wow, this team’s offense is prettier than I imagined!  Their stats also blow my mind a bit:  they take a ton of 3’s and shoot them at a decent clip, shoot an average amount of 2’s and score them at an insane rate yet also get to the line a ton.  I have been saying since De’Aaron Fox’s rookie year that the way to optimize him offensively is to have a high paced offense since he is so fast and is good at finding teammates in transition; the Kings have finally optimized this and operate at one of the fastest paces in the league.  Fox and Domantas Sabonis have a beautiful 2-man game since both are crafty and good passers, though a big thing for them was that the perfect players around them are great shooters.  Sacramento has done that with several players, including Kevin Huerter, an elite shooter from everywhere on the court, Keegan Murray, a rookie forward who has been a valuable role player offensively, Harrison Barnes, who while struggling from 3 has thrived with cutting, midrange, and finishing without getting in the way, and Malik Monk, a great 6th man for them who can succeed on and off the ball.  In limited minutes, Terence Davis has been a nice 3-and-D wing and Trey Lyles has found success as a stretch big.  While their defense hasn’t been great, it’s been closer to average than I expected, especially since Barnes and Murray have been solid defenders.  I think the easiest way to replace defense would be having a defensive-minded wing in the lineup, but that would likely replace Huerter, who has been amazing on offense to the point that I wouldn’t want to replace him.  It is worth watching to see if they can find a trade partner for Richaun Holmes, a quality big who fell out of the rotation, or try to trade Davion Mitchell, an older second year guard who has been okay defensively but terrible defensively.

 

San Antonio Spurs:  They’re back to the tanking team I expected they would be

A 5-2 start for the Spurs had NBA Twitter wondering what was going on…until a 1-16 stretch occurred for the team, which was more in line with what was expected.  They’re horrible on offense, somehow even worse on defense, and yet have managed to outperform expectations at the time of writing considering what their net rating is.  It was expected that they would try to bottom out for Victor Wembenyama, so it’s not surprising to see them not winning.  The good news for them is that they have several young players that look like they could be something.  I think that Devin Vassell, a nice shooting wing with defensive and playmaking potential, and Keldon Johnson, an athletic forward with a solid jumper, both could be versatile stars in the future and are potentially the 2nd and 3rd best players on a competitive team respectively in the future.  Some other players I think they have something in include Jeremy Sochan, an athletic forward with defensive and playmaking potential, Tre Jones, who looks like a very smart playmaker at a young age, Malachi Branham, an athletic forward with finishing ability, and Zach Collins, an injury-prone big who is an efficient scorer and shooter that naturally fits in with any offense.  I expect Jakob Poeltl will be traded (I wouldn’t bat an eye if he netted a first), but if they resign him then they have an amazing rim protector to pair with a young lineup with immense potential.  Even prior to adding a top pick in this year’s draft, I love this team for the future; that said, there will be a lot of losses leading up to it, a trend that could worsen as the season goes on.

 

Toronto Raptors:  They’re better than their record indicates

This might be a tougher one to justify since they have struggled this year compared to many people’s expectations (especially my own).  First, they’ve been so unlucky with injuries, as several core players have missed time at different parts.  On top of that, both Scottie Barnes and Precious Achiuwa (prior to being injured) have taken a step back, especially on the defensive end.  They also have several players who suddenly can’t seem to hit a 3; the most notable is Fred VanVleet, who is shooting a career low from 3 and near a low on eFG%, but Chris Boucher, Thaddeus Young, and Juan Hernangomez also have plummeting 3P%.  Most importantly is that while they are under .500 at the time of writing, their net rating indicates that they are actually around or slightly better than league average.  I think the biggest thing they can do to improve is pick up the pace a bit; they force the most turnovers in the NBA and rarely turn the ball over yet are among the slowest in pace.  They have several talented athletes who can absolutely excel in the open space, so I think that could bump them up a little.  That said, I think I might have been a bit too bullish on them this summer; with their roster, the Play-In or the 6th seed might be more realistic.  It is also worth monitoring this team during the trade season.

 

Utah Jazz:  They’ve started to fall back to earth, but aren’t as bad as initially expected

Prior to the season, Utah was one of the more popular teams to finish near the bottom of the West; I for one had them 13th.  They got off to a roaring start and appeared to be proving everyone wrong, but then dipped down to around .500.  Since then, they have stuck around .500 for the most part, and this feels legit.  Their net rating is around league average due to an elite offense and poor defense, so as long as their offense is clicking, they’ll probably be around this range.  It is worth noting that all of this can change if Danny Ainge brings out Trader Danny again, which I would never rule out, but for now they’re not horrible.  How did I get this so wrong prior to the season?  The biggest reason I did was because the lineup didn’t seem to make any sense with each other.  This is a ragtag type of team that seemed to make no sense alongside each other with the amount of score first players on the team, but they’ve made it work.  Look at their starting lineup, which includes Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Lauri Markkanen, Jared Vanderbilt, and Kelly Olynyk; Conley has been very good as a playmaker for this offense and Clarkson has improved as a playmaker.  I think Markkanen works better with this team than in Cleveland since Olynyk is able to space the floor, allowing for one less big in the paint if he wants to shoot the midrange (this also helps Vanderbilt); it also helps that he appears to be making everything.  They also have Malik Beasley, who has developed into a really nice shooter, Collin Sexton, a volume scorer who appears to be good again now that he’s recovered from injury, and Walker Kessler, who looks like a nice defender already as a rookie.  I could see a trade being made (Vanderbilt feels most likely if one occurs), which then could allow for more playing time from guys like Talen Horton-Tucker, who could prove something.  Overall, this team is not an awful team and could compete for a playoff spot.

 

Washington Wizards:  This team doesn’t feel destined for success either short- or long-term

Originally, my observation with them was that I don’t think they’re a good team after they got off to a hot start; they didn’t feel legit on either end at that time, which has been proven right.  Now that they are on an atrocious stretch after a 10-7 start, I would like to double down on this and also argue that they are in trouble in the long-term as well.  Their big 3 of Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis, and Kyle Kuzma have been playing well on an individual standpoint (though Beal has dealt with injuries), but the rest of the team has been underwhelming.  Their other most frequent starters are Monte Morris, who is good offensively but better suited as a backup point guard, and Deni Avdija, who has been amazing defensively but has been a minus offensive player.  Delon Wright has been injured most of this year, which is a big loss for them and would be so nice as a backup guard.  They have gotten nice production out of 2-Way player Jordan Goodwin from 3 and some good offensive production from Corey Kispert, albeit at the expense of defense.  As for the rest of the team, Will Barton has looked off the whole year, Rui Hachimura has been disappointing on both ends and doesn’t appear to have taken the jump the team hoped, Daniel Gafford has been pretty bad, and several young players of theirs have not been good enough to crack their rotation, including rookie Johnny Davis, who they selected 10th in the Draft.  As for the future, I expect Kyle Kuzma will opt out of his player option after this season (if he isn’t traded prior to then), something that Porzingis might also wind up doing if he stays healthy, a combo which would be virtually impossible to replace.  If Beal requests a trade, the start of his massive deal would make it difficult to get a justifiable haul in exchange for him; he is signed for the next 4 seasons after this year, though the contract gets expensive for what he provides by the end.  The other contracts that are expiring after this year are Will Barton (who I doubt will be resigned), Rui Hachimura (I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t even offer him a qualifying offer, though it’s possible), and Taj Gibson (he’s on a minimum deal and doesn’t play a ton).  The players they will have for next year if Porzingis and Kuzma opt out are Beal, Deni Avdija (who is extension eligible this offseason), Monte Morris, Delon Wright, Corey Kispert, Daniel Gafford (who will be tough to trade with his contract), Johnny Davis, Anthony Gill, Isaiah Todd, and Vernon Carey.  This team doesn’t leave a ton to be excited about for the future; I really like Avdija and think Kispert is nice offensively but haven’t been too excited about their draft picks over the past few seasons.  I will say that I think they found a nice player in Jordan Goodwin on a 2-Way deal; I would try to convert him to a standard contract.

 

 

What teams have you enjoyed watching this season?  Is there anything you’ve noticed about any teams?  Let me know in the comments!

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