Teams to Watch at the 2023 Trade Deadline

The NBA Trade Deadline occurs on February 9th and is annually a point of excitement amongst fans.  Every year there’s the threat where it seems like everything could happen that day (i.e., the 2022 deadline), or a day where nothing happens (the 2017 major deadline deal of Nerlens Noel comes to mind).  This season could go either way due to the amount of parity in the league and the lack of one clear frontrunner in either conference, especially the West.

In this post, I will discuss teams that I think will be interesting to watch at the trade deadline.  Realistically most teams could make some move, but I am going to focus on teams that will be discussed a lot or could make big moves (for instance, I don’t see the Celtics doing anything big due to their lack of needs.  I also am not including the Timberwolves since they traded their draft capitol away).  I am going to focus on 10 teams that I think will be most intriguing to keep an eye on, in order by team I find most fascinating.

All stats/standings are per Basketball Reference and are up to date entering the games on January 12th.

 

Washington Wizards (18-24)

The Wizards have struggled mightily after a hot start, and after appearing to have found a big 3, I wouldn’t put money on this trio remaining next year.  While Bradley Beal cannot be traded this season, Kyle Kuzma and Kristaps Porzingis both have player options for next year while having great seasons while still only 27.  Kuzma has already expressed disinterest in remaining there and has already easily outplayed his player option of $13M, with 35.0 MPG, 21.3 PPG on 46.1 FG%/33.8 3P%/71.3 FT%/53.0 eFG%, 7.5 RPG, and 3.8 APG in 40 G while playing nice defense.  Given his injury history, if Porzingis continues to remain healthy as he has thus far this season (37 G), it makes sense to opt out of his option just over $36M and sign a 4-year deal, especially since he has 22.0 PPG on 47.6 FG%/33.5 3P%/81.0 FT%/53.4 eFG%, 9.0 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.5 BPG, and 1.0 SPG in 32.7 MPG while consistently looking good.  If I were the Wizards, I would try to trade both since they’re closer to top-4 lottery odds than they are to achieving the 8 seed (though they are still in the Play-In race at the moment).  I believe each could potentially net 2 first round picks (especially Kuzma), so I’d value that since I also am skeptical of Beal’s long-term future with the team.  I also think it would be interesting to see if Rui Hachimura could result in any value while they push off the decision of whether they should extend him or not (I’m not sure I would unless that were for some reason that is a breaking point for Beal); he still is shooting well for a bigger forward (36.9% from 3 on 2.6 attempts a game and 54.4 eFG%) and has 13.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, and 1.2 APG in 25 games off the bench.  While Will Barton is also an expiring contract, he’s not playing particularly well, as he has 7.7 PPG and, while shooting 36.5% from 3, is only shooting 38.6% from 2.  I could also see them doing something that I find dumb and trying to trade for a winning move now; if they do, they have a few contracts in between $5M and $15M in Barton ($14.375M), Kuzma ($13M), Monte Morris ($9.125M), Delon Wright (~$7.8M), and Hachimura (~$6.26M).  If they opt to buy, expect them to look for an off-ball wing or a point guard.

 

Chicago Bulls (19-23)

Since the Bulls are currently in 10th place, I don’t expect them to make a franchise altering trade unless the bottom truly falls out, but they should.  The truth for them is that they invested a lot in a big 3 that just doesn’t work together in DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Nikola Vucevic.  The only way it was truly effective was when they had Lonzo Ball, but he hasn’t played in around a year after multiple knee surgeries apparently gone wrong, resulting in questions about the future of his NBA career (I so hope he plays again at the level he was playing prior to his injury; he’s such a talented and exciting player on both ends of the court).  In order for things to go right without him, a lot of things have to go right, which includes DeRozan playing amazing (check), LaVine playing at a near career best ability on both ends (not happening, especially on defense), Nikola Vucevic having an All-Star type season (nope), Patrick Williams being more consistent (nope), Alex Caruso being more of an offensive focal point (he’s about as far from that as it gets; can we also discuss the fact that he somehow has slid on the fact that he never shoots while P.J. Tucker has been torched?), and several other role players making a big jump (I think Ayo Dosunmu has looked pretty good, but the rest have been a bit disappointing).  The biggest issue they face is that they owe their pick to the Magic, though it is top-4 protected (some argue they should tank to get that pick, but I think they should count it as a sunk cost due to the number of teams that looked like they would stink this year and have lived up to it).  There are three options to split up their core:  trade everyone, trade the older stars, or trade the younger stars.  I don’t see them trading their entire core trio during the season since they just built it, but I expect they will do one of the other options.  It might seem logical to trade DeRozan and Vucevic while building around LaVine, I would not do that.  I for one would trade LaVine and built this season around DeRozan and Vucevic.  LaVine is only 27 (compared to the 33-year-old DeRozan and 32-year-old Vucevic), but he has had knee issues in his career, doesn’t try at all on defense, never impacted winning until DeRozan got to Chicago, has already had multiple knee surgeries, and is signed through 2027 (while there’s a player option, I don’t expect his knees to sustain long enough for him to opt out of it).  Despite all that, he can net the most in return out of the 3 since he is the youngest, signed to a longer-term contract, a freak athlete, good scorer and shooter (23.8 PPG with 47.0 FG%/39.9 3P%/83.1 FT%/55.6 eFG%), and has a reputation for being a star player amongst enough people in the front office to make it work.  Two teams I have heard thrown around as having some interest in him are Dallas (I don’t get it but sure) and New York (they could bite after not trading for Donovan Mitchell).  While Vucevic could be traded since his contract is expiring, I don’t think his return would be great since he has struggled to find a role on offense (though it should be noted that he is now up to 16.9 PPG and 38.0 3P% on 4.5 attempts, after passing up open looks early in the year while on a slump).  The other player to watch out for in a trade is Caruso; he’s making $9.03M this year and has $28.38M total over 3 years, which is a good bargain for a competitive team considering how good of a wing defender he is.

 

Toronto Raptors (18-23)

Toronto might be the biggest mystery of all since they have without a doubt struggled compared to expectations (I for one thought there was a chance they could sneak into finishing first in the East…oops).  Ultimately, their offense has been average (114.0 Offensive Rating, 14th in the NBA) while playing at a slow pace (97.2, 27th), which isn’t too surprising with Nick Nurse as the coach and a starting lineup that doesn’t scream elite offense (Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent Jr., Scottie Barnes, Pascal Siakam, and OG Anunoby).  The bigger issue is that this team, which seems primed to be an amazing defense, has been average (113.7 Defensive Rating, 15th).  While I think their offense has had some bad luck shooting and that this doesn’t feel like what their defense will be, the sample size seems a bit too big to not raise red flags, especially on defense.  On top of that, Otto Porter is out for the year, Precious Achiuwa has struggled, and neither Chris Boucher nor Juancho Hernangomez can hit 3’s off the bench (I’m especially surprised about the latter).  Despite dealing with a sophomore slump in shooting, decision making, effort, and defense, Barnes is not going to be traded due to his upside.  While Siakam makes sense if they want to totally rebuild, I think they’ll view some tweaks as smarter moves.  Despite being in the last year of his contract and struggling mightily from 3 this year (32.8%), I don’t expect VanVleet will be traded unless they get a good point guard back in another trade.  That leaves Trent and Anunoby out of their starters.  Trent is a nice wing player who has profiled more than the 3-and-D guy that I thought was his ceiling; he has 18.5 PPG on 44.3 FG%/36.7 3P%/82.1 FT%/53.3 eFG%, 2.3 RPG, 1.5 APG, and 1.6 SPG in 34 games and 32.3 MPG.  He’s been a good shooter, finisher, defender, and has shown potential on the ball at points.  The 23-year-old is making ~$17.5M this year and has a player option for ~$18.8M next year (something that I don’t believe enough people are talking about).  Anunoby is only 25, is one of their most versatile defenders, and has potential to provide more on offense if given the chance; he has 18.3 PPG on 46.9 FG%/36.8 3P%/83.6 FT%/53.5 eFG%, 5.9 RPG, 2.1 APG, 2.2 SPG, and 0.8 BPG. He is making ~$17.4M this year and is signed through next year with a player option in 2025.  If they make a major trade, it sounds like Anunoby is the one to watch out for, and there would be a lot of bidders.

 

Utah Jazz (21-23)

After starting hot, Utah has fallen back to earth and has been a fringe playoff team, which brings up the biggest 2 questions at the deadline:  who does Utah think they are and what is the worst they want to be without blowing it up.  I don’t expect Lauri Markkanen will be traded since he has played so well for them (24.5 PPG on 52.4 FG%/41.1 3P%/87.5 FT%/61.5 eFG% and 8.5 RPG) while on a nice contract (~16.48M this year, signed with partial guarantee through 2025).  I also don’t expect Collin Sexton will be traded since I don’t see him getting enough interest.  After them, there’s a lot of players to watch.  Jordan Clarkson is a great scorer (20.7 PPG on 45.1 FG%/35.9 3P%/81.2 FT%/53.4 eFG%) who profiles perfectly as a high-volume 6th man and is making just $13.34M this year as a 30-year-old (he has a player option for $14.26M next year).  Mike Conley is a solid point guard whose efficiency has taken a bit of a dip (47.9 eFG% due to 41.9 2P%) but is still a nice playmaker (7.5 APG to 1.7 TOV) and can be a good enough defender; he is 35 and makes $22.68M this year (he has over $14M guaranteed next year).  Malik Beasley is a really nice shooter (36.1% from 3 on 8.6 attempts) and scorer (14.0 PPG with 53.0 eFG%) who is only 26 and makes ~$15.56M this year (he also has a team option for ~$16.52M, which I would consider a bit of a bargain for him).  Kelly Olynyk is a dream stretch-5, as he can shoot (50.3 FG%/41.3 3P%/83.1 FT%/59.5 eFG%) on a bargain contract for his ability (~$12.8M this year, only $3M of his ~$12.2M guaranteed next year) while 31.  If they want to clear the center position for Walker Kessler to play more (he does look better than I expected so far), they could trade Jarred Vanderbilt, who is a bit undersized but is an awesome defender, rebounder (8.1 RPG), finisher (61.4 2P%), and is starting to shoot some (33.3% from deep…on 1.1 attempt, but it’s better than it used to be) while just 23 and ~$4.37M this year and an almost entirely non-guaranteed ~$4.7M next year (though whatever team has him would be smart to guarantee it anyways, unless they’re signing him to a new deal).  Three other guys that I don’t expect will have a market but are worth watching include Talen Horton-Tucker ($10.26M this year, $11.02M player option next year, but is only 22), Rudy Gay (~$6.18M this year, ~$6.5M player option next year, though is 36), and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (~$5M this year, could be a restricted free agent next year and is only 24, but hasn’t shown much thus far).  At the time of writing, they have been linked to John Collins for Atlanta in exchange for Vanderbilt and Beasley.

 

Atlanta Hawks (19-22)

Atlanta is weird; they made the Conference Finals in 2021, finished 8th last year, traded for Dejounte Murray, and yet are probably worse this season.  The most obvious issue is that the ball is still in Trae Young’s hand a ton (33.7 USG%), despite that being the reason the Hawks traded for Murray, and Young cannot hit a shot (31.4% from 3, 47.8% from 2, both of which are approaching or are career lows).  I’ve been saying for a few years that nobody talks about the fact that Young is actually a streaky shooter (career 35.0% from deep, ranging from 31.4% to 38.2%), but has a reputation of being elite because he makes some deep ones he takes despite having horrible shot selection.  While I think their best strategy long-term is to trade Young and build around Murray instead, I think they could receive more for Young by waiting until the offseason.  In the meantime, the most obvious trade piece is John Collins, who has been rumored to be traded since before he signed his current deal.  The 25-year-old offensive minded forward is athletic and has 8.1 RPG, 13.3 PPG, and is good at finishing (62.8% from 2), though it should also be noted that he is averaging 16.2 PPG for his career and, while struggling from 3 this year, has shot 35.8% from 3 across his career; I think he is not in the right role with this team and won’t thrive with Young since he’s not solely a catch-and-shoot guy or lob finisher.  He’s making $23.5M this year and is signed through 2026 (player option).  The next most obvious trade target is Bogdan Bogdanovic (not to be mixed up with the other Bogdanovic, who will be discussed in a few teams).  He makes sense on paper with Atlanta since he can shoot (37.9% from 3 on 8.1 attempts) and is smart off the ball, but he doesn’t make sense because Young won’t give up the ball (I’m not actually that bitter about it, I just think it’s clear that he’s not doing what’s best for the team, which was a concern I had about him prior to being drafted).  Bogdanovic has a nice handle and can make a lot of smart plays on the ball, which is probably the best way to unlock his full potential offensively.  The 30-year-old (which was shocking to me, since I’ve thought he was 27 for the last 5 years) is making $18M this year and has a player option for the same amount next season.  The other logical trades would be Clint Capela (28, ~$18.71M this year, ~$61.59 remaining over 3 years) if they think that Onyeka Okongwu can take on more responsibility (I’m rooting for it), or Justin Holiday (33, $6.29M expiring contract) if they think that some of their younger players like AJ Griffin and Jalen Johnson are ready for a role in the playoffs (as much as I love them, especially Griffin, I’m not sure about it).  One other player to note is that I don’t see De’Andre Hunter being traded this year due to the poison pill restriction regarding rookie extensions; he won’t be considered until next offseason at the earliest.  As mentioned with the Jazz, it is also worth noting that at the time of writing, Atlanta has been in talks with Utah regarding a deal centered around flipping Collins for Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt.

 

Los Angeles Lakers (19-22)

I’ll get this out of the way:  no, I do not believe the Lakers are going to trade Russell Westbrook.  While the trade has been a disaster, he has been good enough for them off the bench due to his playmaking (he really has been making some of the smartest plays of his career) and the cost of giving him up (they will lose the flexibility of the draft picks and would almost certainly lose cap space flexibility for next year).  It should be noted that many of the players on smaller contracts have worked out well given the cap hit; in particular, Lonnie Walker IV, Thomas Bryant, Dennis Schröder, Austin Reaves, Troy Brown Jr., Wenyen Gabriel, Max Christie, and Juan Toscano-Anderson have all done at least what was expected of them with some vastly outperforming expectations (including Walker, Bryant, Schröder, and Reaves).  That doesn’t leave much room for trades, but I think the Lakers will at least eye a trade that involves either Patrick Beverley or Kendrick Nunn.  While Beverley’s efficiency has dropped significantly (33.3% from 3, 49.7 eFG%), it is worth mentioning that he has never been known for his offensive abilities, but more for his vocal attitude and irritant defensive mindset.  The issue is that he’s shown that he just doesn’t fit with this team and hasn’t been the difference maker in holding the team accountable that some thought he would be.  He’s on a $13M expiring deal, so the Lakers would probably prefer to get back someone on an expiring deal as well to preserve cap flexibility for next year.  As for Nunn, he’s slowly falling out of the rotation since he cannot hit a shot to save his life (31.3 3P%, 45.3 2P%, 46.0 eFG%) and doesn’t contribute much else on either end.  I don’t see him garnering much attention on his own, but coupling his expiring $5.25M contract with Beverley’s contract could bring them to another level of player that they could acquire.

 

Charlotte Hornets (11-31)

Not surprisingly, Charlotte stinks this year (wow, my slightly bold prediction that they’d finish last has panned out better than I honestly anticipated), so let’s look at veterans and players on expiring contracts since someone will reach out about them.  Terry Rozier is 28, making ~$21.49M this year and ~$96.26M through 2026 while his scoring numbers are still what they are when he introduced Scary Terry to the world (21.0 PPG), but his efficiency numbers have dropped to that point (32.4 3P%, 46.8 2P%, 47.6 eFG%), and he’s been what he’s always been as a score first guard who can be a playmaker sometimes (5.3 APG, 2.5 TOV).  I think there could be a market for him since teams will realize that he has been more efficient when he hasn’t been the only ball handler for parts of the season (with LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward, and Dennis Smith Jr. all dealing with injuries).  Kelly Oubre Jr. is 27 and on a nice expiring contract (12.6M) while putting up amazing numbers as a finisher (20.2 PPG and 50.3% from 2), but he shoots way too many 3’s (30.8% on 7.4 a game).  I think teams will realize that he will be better when doesn’t have the ball in his hands so much or as much freedom to let it fly and will have a market.  Mason Plumlee is 32, signed to an expiring ~$9.08M contract, and slots as a smooth backup and occasional starting center.  He’s a nice finisher (65.5 2P%), rebounder (9.5 RPG), passer for a big (3.7 APG), defender, and is improving his free throw percentage (up to 59.9%...yes, I said up to).  If there are any teams interested in an additional big (I’m not sure what the market for that is at the moment), then there will likely be some teams calling about him.  They probably hope to trade Hayward, but he’s struggled with injuries again, is 32, still owed $61.575M through next year, and has declined mightily on both ends.  He’s struggled with efficiency (30.0 3P%, 48.0 2P%, 47.0 eFG%), has looked a step slow defensively, hasn’t been as efficient of a playmaker (3.9 APG vs. 2.1 TOV), and has just looked lost at times off the ball.  The only way I see him being traded is if the Lakers decide they are desperate enough to trade Russell Westbrook, though Westbrook has easily outplayed Hayward this year in my opinion.  While he’s only 27, is making $7M this year and is signed through 2026 (final year isn’t guaranteed), Cody Martin has struggled mightily since returning from injury, but I don’t see them dumping him.  There are reports that some teams have reached out about Jalen McDaniels, who has nice size as a forward, is a decent shooter (34.5% from 3 this year, 35.3% for his career), and is a good all-around player, especially off the ball, who is having a career year at 24 while making just ~$1.93M on an expiring deal.  P.J. Washington is also expiring…no Charlotte, please don’t do that.

 

Detroit Pistons (12-23)

Detroit is struggling and has lost Cade Cunningham for the year, so now it’s about seeing what they have in young players and what they can get for veterans.  The reason they’re even on this list is because probably the most discussed player at the deadline is Bojan Bogdanovic (not to be confused with Bogdan Bogdanovic, who was discussed during the section about Atlanta).  He is a big forward who can shoot efficiently (42.2 3P% on 5.8 attempts, 57.2 eFG%, 89.2 FT%), score (21.2 PPG), can operate enough on and off the ball, and has finally begun to show some playmaking ability (2.8 APG…though he has committed 2.3 TOV).  The 33-year-old’s contract is also reasonable, as he is owed $19.55M this year, $20M next year, and has fully nonguaranteed ~$19.03M amount the following year.  Since he has shown in many spots that he can operate on or off the ball at a high level (including Utah and Indiana previously), he makes a lot of sense as a trade target, especially as a player who could be a third or fourth option for a very competitive team without being worried that he would need too many touches that would take away from the top 2 options.  I’ll also run through their other veterans for the sake of this post.  Alec Burks (31, ~$10.01M this year, team option for ~$10.49 next year) is a nice shooter (45.0% from 3):  he will likely have a market.  Nerlens Noel (28, $9.24 this year, $9.68 team option next year) has barely played because the Pistons have so many young big men, but is a really good defender:  he might not have a market since another defensive big will be a priority for most teams (he’s coming up in the next team).  Cory Joseph (31, ~$5.16M expiring deal) is a decent backup point guard who really can’t shoot at this point:  I just don’t see many teams interested.  Rodney McGruder is on a minimum deal, is 31, has played 17 games, and is more known at this point for Draymond Green ranting about “Rodney”:  I just included him because he’s a veteran, not because he’ll have a market.  One younger player on an expiring deal to keep an eye on is Hamidou Diallo; he’s a 24-year-old forward who is a freak athlete, great finisher (57.9% from 2), and solid defender, though his game is limited elsewhere.  Since some teams are likely looking for a power forward, if they miss out on Bogdanovic…

 

San Antonio Spurs (13-29)

Similar to the last Pistons, the Spurs are struggling yet are only on here for one player:  Jakob Poeltl.  Any team that has been linked to a center seems to immediately be linked to him for good reason.  He is an excellent defensive center who can finish (63.7% from 2), rebound (9.5 RPG, as well as 3.5 ORB), and is suddenly showing a little more of a passing touch than I expected or realized he had (2.9 APG, 2.0 TOV).  He doesn’t do much outside the arc offensively, but his defensive abilities could be valuable to a competitive team looking for a guy to contribute at least 20 MPG as a big (he’s currently averaging 26.4 MPG).  He is 27 and is on an expiring contract worth ~$9.4M, which is easily worth what he provides.  I expect San Antonio will try to move him since Zach Collins has seemed to revive his career this season now that he’s been healthy, and Poeltl will likely contribute to more wins than the Spurs want to receive this season.  While Bojan Bogdanovic is the most talked about player in the trade market, Poeltl feels like he’s likely to be moved as well.  The only other players I see being moved are Doug McDermott (31, $13.75M each this year and next year), an elite shooter as a bigger forward, and Josh Richardson (29, ~$12.2M expiring deal), who is a fine role player who can shoot some and play solid defense, though it is worth noting that he didn’t seem to fit with the previous 3 teams he played for (Boston, Dallas, and Philadelphia).  While his contract is expiring and he’s been a bit of a mixed bag, I don’t see the 23-year-old Romeo Langford being traded this year unless something weird happens or he’s included in another trade.

 

Cleveland Cavaliers (26-16)

Cleveland is on here because I found that I had 7 teams I was extremely interested in and 2 teams where I was interested in one player.  Since I wanted to make it 10 teams, I decided to discuss the Cavs due to the recurring question about what they are going to do at the 3.  While normally it might not be the biggest deal, they look like a legitimate contender in the East this year, and I think they should try to capitalize on this.  They have Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland as guards and Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen as their bigs, all of whom have been great and appear to fit perfectly together.  They have been experimenting all season with the final starting slot.  Caris LeVert has been used most often (20 GS) and has been efficient by his standards (36.4 3P%, 48.6 eFG%, 12.6 PPG), but I think he is better with the ball in his hands as a bench scorer.  Prior to being injured, they seemed to have found the guy in Dean Wade, as a bigger forward who is a solid defender and good shooter (41.1% from 3).  They’ve also have Isaac Okoro, an amazing defender who doesn’t do much offensively and is afraid to shoot, Lamar Stevens, a solid finisher (50.5 2P%) and bigger forward who isn’t a good shooter, Cedi Osman, a solid 3-and-D guy who they seem to prefer off the bench, and Kevin Love, who is still a good shooter and rebounder, but he is likely best off the bench due to his defensive limitations.  There are a few wings on the market who would fit nice, and the contracts they have that make sense to be traded (excluding minimum deals) include Caris LeVert (28, ~$18.8M expiring deal), Cedi Osman (27, ~$7.43M deal and nonguaranteed ~$6.72M next year), and Isaac Okoro (21, ~$7.04M this year, ~$8.92M next year).  I don’t see them doing this, but I’d offer Dylan Windler and 2 second rounders to the Hornets for Jalen McDaniels, someone who makes sense due to his size, shooting touch, and theoretical ability to fit along stars.  I have also heard that they are among the teams who have reached out to the Suns about Jae Crowder.

 

 

Some rapid-fire teams to watch:

  • I’m not sure how Dallas (23-19) would buy and doubt they would sell, but keep an eye on them, especially if contract talks with Christian Wood stall.
  • Golden State (20-21) is weird; do they view this year as one final run at it?  If so, watch for at least one role player trade from them.
  • Houston (10-31) has struggled mightily, and Eric Gordon (who is 34) seems to be done with them.
  • Indiana (23-19) is a team to watch now that Tyrese Haliburton is injured and out for 2 weeks.
  • The L.A. Clippers (22-21) have the contracts to make a bigger move if they want, though I’m not sure that they will.
  • Miami (22-20) has clearly long wanted to fill the power forward hole that P.J. Tucker left, so they’re worth watching (especially since I doubt Dewayne Dedmon has made a ton of friends after throwing a massage gun on the court, though that might be tolerable in Miami).
  • Milwaukee (27-14) has missed Khris Middleton for almost the entire season and their offense has suffered.  Are they at all worried?
  • There are still a couple veterans in Orlando (16-26) who can still play some; anyone want Terrence Ross or Gary Harris?
  • I previously discussed that I think things seem fishy in Phoenix (21-22); Jae Crowder is good as gone, but I wonder if they get desperate.
  • I don’t see Sacramento (22-18) making any major moves, but they do still have Richaun Holmes on their team, who can contribute to a team but makes no sense for them and is out of their rotation.

 

What teams/players are you watching at the trade deadline?  Let me know in the comments!

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

2025 WNBA Mock Draft

2025 WNBA Draft Grades

2025 NBA Mock Draft 1