10 Men’s & Women’s Teams to Watch in the NCAA Tournament
Every year, there are some teams that are intriguing to watch in the tournament that might not be 1 seeds or make the Final Four, both of which tend to be the focus. In this post, I am focusing on 10 teams that are not 1 seeds and that I don’t have making it to the Final Four, with 5 from the Men’s Tournament and 5 from the Women’s Tournament.
Men’s
Marquette (2)
Something I’ve noticed is that there are several situations
in which a higher seeded team that doesn’t have a ton of much older top-heavy talent
yet has a smart and tactical coach doesn’t make it far in the tournament. On the other hand, teams that are deep with
multiple upperclassmen who could garner some draft attention tend to fair well
in the tournament. What about a team with
upperclassmen depth and a tactical coach?
This will be a great test case for that.
I consider Shaka Smart to be one of the best tactical coaches in college
basketball, and he especially thrives at non-Power 4 schools (while
inconsistent at Texas, he thrived at VCU and is picking up that pace at
Marquette). While the players with the most
draft buzz are dominant two-way athletic redshirt sophomore forward Oso Ighodaro
and the aggressive finishing junior wing Olivier-Maxence Prosper, they also get
contributions from several other quality players, mostly juniors and
sophomores. If everyone stays (not
always a lock given the transfer portal), this team will be dominant next year
if they aren’t this year.
UConn (4)
This team is the epitome of what I look for when predicting
a winner in terms of veteran talent, but they are so inconsistent that I’m not
sure what will happen with them. In
particular, I am absolutely enamored by sophomore sharpshooter Jordan Hawkins,
junior two-way force Adama Sanogo, and elite defending junior Andrew Jackson,
making it difficult for me to quit them.
That said, while they finished 24-8, I am still scared about what
happens if they struggle as badly as they did during their 1-5 skid in late
December-early January. That said, it is
worth noting that they were 10-3 after that stretch and 14-0 before, so maybe
the 24-3 is more like what the team is.
Miami (5)
This team has been so consistent this season and has been
insanely productive and efficient offensively, which will make them a threat throughout
the tournament. Jim Larranaga has shown
that he is an excellent coach while seniors Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller (5th
year) are both the real deal and could wind up being drafted this year. There are two things that I am keeping an eye
on with them. The first is their defense
being a bit inconsistent later in the season; while there’s a case to be made
that was bad luck or schedule, their schedule isn’t getting easier from
here. The second is if Norchad Omier is
healthy, since he is currently questionable with an ankle injury; this is especially
crucial for a team that doesn’t use a deep bench to begin with.
Creighton (6)
Creighton might be one of the strangest teams in the
tournament, since they rank very well in my traditional prediction ways, though
are so inconsistent. They live and die
by the 3 (though are very good at it) and have 4 players with at least some
draft potential, including sharpshooters in sophomore Trey Alexander and junior
Baylor Scheierman, dominant paint force Ryan Kalkbrenner (a junior), and Arthur
Kaluma, an athletic forward who dictates how far they go. The sophomore garnered some draft buzz after
his freshman year, but returned to school and has been incredibly
inconsistent. If he is playing up to his
ceiling that was expected previously, this team could outplay their seed. That said, he has proven to be a dangerous
player to bet on.
Furman (13)
Typically, a team that has one of the top players in the region
advances to at least the second round. Even
on a 12 seed, Ja Morant was able to do this for Murray State in 2019, advancing
to the next round. This year, Furman’s
star Jalen Slawson will test this idea for the 13-seed in the South. The 5th year senior is an
impressive player all around, with efficient scoring ability (15.7 PPG on 61.4
eFG% and 39.4 3P%), strong defense (team leading 2.8 DBPM, 1.6 SPG, and 1.6 BPG),
some playmaking (3.2 APG vs. 2.5 TOV with 17.3 TOV%), a willingness to have the
ball in his hands (23.9 USG%), and nice size to match up against forwards and
wings (6’7, 210 lbs.). They have a solid
team that is full of players who are sophomore and older, which is another good
indicator for success; they could be one to watch for a couple rounds.
Women’s
UConn (2)
While typically a powerhouse and recently a lock to make the
Final Four, the big question with this team is health. While the team has been hampered with injuries
all season, star sophomore Azzi Fudd is back and has been cleared to play after
just 12 games this season. While several
players have stepped up and shone this year, most notably Aaliyah Edwards and
graduate transfer Lou Lopez Senechal, their fate depends on Fudd’s health. If she is healthy, they can make it as far as
the Championship game. If she has any
setbacks, it will be tough for them to make it past the Sweet 16.
LSU (3)
LSU is one of the most interesting teams in the tournament
since they are 28-2 yet there is uncertainty regarding how good they are. Of course Kim Mulkey is an outstanding coach
and they have several stars, including Angel Reese, who posted 23.4 PPG and
15.5 RPG. Their offense has been one of
the best in the country and their defensive metrics are outstanding as well,
but there’s one major issue: their
schedule has been so easy. They tended
to struggle more in conference, though part of that stemmed from an 88-64 beating
from undefeated South Carolina. That
said, they did lose in the SEC tournament to an inconsistent 23-11
Tennessee. I’m not quite sure how far
they go since I have no idea how good this team is.
Creighton (6)
Look, this team might not go too far, but they’re an
absolute blast if you like shooting. They
shot 36.5% from deep (18th) on 25.7 attempts a game (17th),
while almost everyone in their rotation shot well from deep. They also had 17.2 APG (15th)
despite the fact that nobody on the team had more than 3.5. They often operated as a fun motion offense while
doing 5-out, all while done at a sluggish pace, which could really throw off
weaker defenses in the tournament. I
expect a better defense or bad shooting game will prevent them from winning
before they get too far, but they are an entertaining one to watch.
Florida Gulf Coast University (12)
Normally a team that is a 12 seed with an easier schedule
isn’t the safest bet in the tournament, especially considering FGCU’s leading
scorer is a 5’3 guard. That said, this
team went 32-3 and torched opponents from deep.
The lead the league in 3-pointers per game (11.8) and 3-pointers
attempted per game (31.4), shooting a whopping 37.6% (9th). As an oddity, they also attempted more 3’s
than 2’s (27.9), which allowed guards Tishara Morehouse (5’3) and Sha Carter (6’0)
to get into the paint more and perform well inside the arc. Even if a player was bad from 3, the team
still had them focus on being behind the arc; while that didn’t always work
great for some players, it made the spacing so good. While I think their defense was more a product
of their schedule, I think their offense is legit and that they are the most likely
upset team.
Sacramento State (13)
When looking for a potential upset in the early rounds, the
best bet is to look for a team that can shoot from a high clip for 3. Despite being a 13 seed, Sacramento State fits
this bill, as they shot 38.5% from deep (6th in the NCAA) on 23.4
attempts per game (56th), something that has also allowed them to
shoot a whopping 53.5% from 2 (11th), though on only 29.4 attempts a
game. The only players in their rotation
who don’t shoot at least 35% from deep are Isnelle Natabou (who didn’t attempt
any, but tends to dominate the paint), Benthe Versteeg (who shot 9.7% on 1
attempt a game), and Jordan Olivares (who shot 33.8% on 2.1 attempts a game,
which is certainly something they can live with). They’re so good at creating open looks and
hitting them with regularity that they can’t be treated as an easy early out.
Who are you excited about in the Tournament? Let me know in the comments!
Comments
Post a Comment