My 2023 Men’s & Women’s NCAA Tournament Brackets
The NCAA Tournament starts on Thursday, so I have my brackets. I typically do research and run some numbers related to each. I have typically had more success with the women’s brackets than the men’s brackets, but last year I got both winners right (though I also had the matchup and margin of victory correct in the women’s Championship Game).
The numbers I deem most important for the Men’s tournament are
number of prospects who have a chance of being drafted (especially upper
classmen), three-point percent, defensive rating, and free throw percent (to a
lesser extend). The numbers I deem most
important for predicting Women’s tournament winners are record against top-25
teams, three-point percent, defensive rating, and pace (to a lesser extent).
Men’s
Final
Four
Houston
In my opinion, Houston should have been the overall number
one seed even without winning their conference tournament; they’re that
good. Despite being a smaller team, they
are one of the most dominant defensive teams, allowing a top-5 lowest 2P% and
3P%. The two players who are the stars on
this team are Marcus Sasser, a skilled combo guard (operating more as the 2
guard at Houston) who is talented all-around and so smart, and Jarace Walker, a
skilled freshman who can handle the ball and defend at a high rate (he is also
one of the top freshmen in college this year in my opinion). They also have some other interesting players
in Jamal Shead, a steady point guard who is a smart playmaker, J’Wan Roberts,
an aggressive 2-way forward who can dominate the paint, Tramon Mark, an
intriguing 3-and-D wing who is versatile, Terrance Arceneaux, a bigger freshman
guard who has struggled offensively but has been great defensively, and Emanuel
Sharp, who has shown scoring and defensive potential off the bench. I think their schemes and athleticism will
counter bigger teams. The biggest
question mark is if Sasser will be at all hampered by his recent injury.
Baylor
Normally teams that have a freshman as a star don’t fair
well in the tournament. On top of that,
they aren’t elite on offense or defense, and stumbled into the tournament by
going 2-4 in their last 6 games. That
said, their depth and roster construction make me easily overlook these
weaknesses, especially when looking at their matchups leading up to the Championship
game. Star freshman Keyonte George is
just the type of player who can thrive in the tournament, as his aggressiveness,
shooting ability, and defensive intensity can outweigh his shot selection and recklessness
with the ball. They also have a
sharpshooting guard combo in Adam Flagler (who is also a solid playmaker) and
LJ Cryer, a strong finishing/defending forward in Jalen Bridges, Flo Thamba, an
awesome defender, Langston Love, a nice scorer/shooter off the bench, Dale
Bonner, a great defender who can shoot some, and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua,
an athletic forward who has looked solid coming back from a year-long
injury. While I have my concerns with
them on both ends, I think their veteran presence outside of George makes it
hard to pass on them.
Kansas
While they’re not a deep team, Kansas could end up repeating
as champions. Kansas has been good
offensively and very good defensively, while they have a starting lineup that make
it enticing to watch. Jalen Wilson was
good last year, but now looks even better as he has developed a solid
jumper. Grady Dick is an elite shooter
with a high basketball IQ (especially on especially on offense), which should
make him the perfect co-star in the tournament, even as a freshman. Their starting lineup is filled out by Kevin
McCullar, an elite defensive wing who can also finish and rebound, KJ Adams, a
nice finishing and defensive forward, and Dajuan Harris, a steady guard who is
so smart on both ends. Outside of
Harris, each starter is at least 6’6, which will be a pain for teams without a
lot of length to have to deal with. I
just fear that they don’t have any additional options if any player gets
injured, especially since Dick and McCullar were both recently dealing with
some.
Kansas State
This is a team that is an odd choice to make the Final Four
but makes a lot of sense in a weaker region that fairs well in several of my methods
of predicting. While they’re fine offensively,
they look pretty good defensively, especially at defending the 3. Their star is Keyontae Johnson, an athletic forward
who has barely played over the past two seasons for medical reasons yet is in
the midst of his best season yet on both ends.
Their other two best players are Markquis Nowell, an undersized guard
who is a great playmaker and solid shooter, and Nae’Qwan Tomlin, an elite
athletic forward who is a great finisher and defender (fun fact about him: he didn’t play basketball in high school and
started at community college). They also
have role players such as David N’Guessan, an elite finisher and great
defender, and Camryn Carter and Desi Sills, two awesome defensive guard. It is worth noting that they finished 8-8
after starting 15-1, which is something I am extremely worried about.
Others
possible
UCLA
I might have had UCLA winning the tournament since they are
deep and have amazing top-end talent. There
is one major issue: star junior guard
and their best defensive player Jaylen Clark is injured. They can still make some noise.
Alabama
While they are deep and have a lot of top-end talent, I
think the combination of having a freshman being their superstar (Brandon Miller)
and the controversy surrounding Brandon Miller will eventually be too much for
this team to handle.
Gonzaga
They have a lot of upper classmen and talented players, but
I believe they have the bad luck of being in a difficult region where several
teams can match up well against them.
Upsets
1st
Round
13 Furman beating 4 Virginia
In the first round, the team with the best player typically
wins. As I discussed in my last post, Jalen
Slawson is the best player on the court (though there is a case to be made for
Reece Beekman). I also think Furman has
a sneaky good team.
12 Oral Roberts beating 5 Duke
While Oral Roberts has a strong offense, again led by Max
Abmas, this is more about me not trusting Duke.
They have a young team overall, which usually results in early defeats
in the tournament. It is worth noting
that the last few times I had Duke losing early, they ended up going far, so
you’re welcome, everybody who chose Duke winning.
11 Pittsburgh beating 6 Iowa State
While Pitt has an interesting team, Iowa State senior Caleb Grill
was kicked off the team late in the season.
Since he was a key player on their team, I think it will be difficult to
adjust to that loss in the tournament.
11 ASU/Nevada beating 6 TCU
Note: This game has
not been played at the time of writing
TCU doesn’t have a ton of players that are massive standout
players, while Arizona State does. On
the other hand, they are also terrible at shooting, whereas Nevada is great at
it. As such, I think either beats TCU.
10 USC beating 7 Michigan State
I don’t consider 10 beating 7 an upset, but some do. I think both teams are actually misranked and
should be switched.
10 Penn State beating 7 Texas A&M
Penn State has an awesome shooting team, which typically
bodes well for the tournament.
10 Boise State beating 7 Northwestern
This could go either way.
Don’t read too much into my predicting Boise State here.
2nd
Round
13 Furman beating 5 San Diego State
While I find San Diego State’s team to be more balanced, I
tend to bet on the team that has the top player in the matchup during the tournament;
in other words, watch Jalen Slawson.
12 Oral Roberts beating 4 Tennessee
I’m not high on Tennessee.
They have a horrible offense and stumbled their way into the tournament
by the end of the season. I think either
Duke or Oral Roberts will beat them in this matchup.
10 Penn State beating 2 Texas
As mentioned before, Penn State is awesome at shooting. Texas is not to say the least. On top of that, Texas is going to be relying
on multiple young players, a recipe for disaster in the tourney.
8 Memphis beating 1 Purdue
This could come back to bite me, but I think a Purdue team
centered around Zach Edey, a 7’4, 285 lbs. big man will have difficulties
against a Memphis team that loves transition basketball. That said, I don’t trust Memphis, so I don’t
feel incredible about it.
Other games
to watch:
- 2 Texas vs. 15 Colgate
- 4 Tennessee vs. 13 Louisiana
- 5 San Diego State vs. 12 Charleston
- 5 Miami vs. 12 Drake
- 5 St. Mary’s vs. 12 VCU
- 6 Creighton vs. 11 NC State
Women’s
Final
Four
South Carolina
I don’t think I need to justify the placement of a 32-0
juggernaut, but I have to admire this team.
First off, Dawn Staley is one of the best coaches in college basketball
(if not the best), and is especially brilliant with defensive schemes. Everyone on this team is dominant on defense,
which will make it difficult to target individual matchups. Their two best offensive players are Aliyah
Boston, a dominant senior big who is likely to be the top pick in the WNBA
Draft, and Zia Cooke, a senior guard who likes to smart and is smart at
it. The only players who topped 20 MPG
are Boston, Cooke, and Brea Beal, though I think part of that is due to how
much they blew everyone out by. The
biggest red flag is that they aren’t great at shooting, but I don’t think that’s
a huge concern.
Indiana
This team is so efficient on offense that it can overshadow
how skilled they are on the defensive end.
They have a smaller spaced lineup, as they have star forward MacKenzie Holmes
and point guard Grace Berger (who can also shoot, though she favors inside the
arc) surrounded by versatile off-ball guards Sydney Parrish, Yarden Garzon,
Sara Scalia, and Chloe Moore-McNeil. Despite
being small, their defense is versatile due to their athleticism and
scheming. The big issue is that they are
only 6 deep for the most part, which could be an issue if foul trouble or
injuries strike.
Virginia Tech
Like Indiana, Virginia Tech is a top-heavy team, though
their style is totally different. While
they have an efficient offense, they tend to play at a much slower pace and
focus more on the defensive end, where they are both versatile and brilliant. Their star is Elizabeth Kitley, a big who is
an absolute force on both ends, especially in the paint. They also have sharpshooter/playmaker Georgia
Amoore, 2-way versatile forward Taylor Soule, combo guard Kayana Taylor,
sharpshooting bigger guard Cayla King, and defensive star D’asia Gregg, who can
also score efficiently. While they aren’t
that deep, Ashley Owusu hasn’t played recently despite being healthy, so it is
possible she is inserted.
Iowa
While it’s tempting to focus on Caitlin Clark, a triple-double
threat who is also an efficient scorer, good defender, and scores at such a
high volume, I absolutely love the roster construction of this team. Clark is paired in the starting lineup with
Monika Czinano, a 2-way big who is great inside the arc, McKenna Warnock, a
valuable 3-and-D player who can also finish efficiently inside the arc, Kate
Martin, a sharpshooter who can also be a secondary ball handler, and Gabbie
Marshall, a great shooter and aggressive defender, as well as having Molly Davis
off the bench, who has been valuable defensively. Their starting lineup consists of 4 players
who are at least 6’, which makes them extremely versatile, especially when
playing against smaller teams.
Others possible
Stanford
I don’t want to bet against Tara VanDerveer, a talented
squad, and an elite defense, but they have to play Iowa. That said, I wouldn’t be shocked if they make
it to the Final Four.
UConn
Their hopes this tournament start and end with the help of
Azzi Fudd; while several players stepped up in her absence, I’d be shocked if
they make it past the Sweet 16 without her.
Upsets
1st
round
12 Florida Gulf Coast beating 5 Washington State
Florida Gulf Coast is one of the best shooting teams in the
league. They even have players who can’t
shoot well still stay behind the arc to totally open the paint. I could see this throwing off a talented team
early in the tourney.
10 Princeton beating 7 NC State
NC State stumbled their way into the tournament, finishing
their final 10 games 4-6. I don’t love
their odds.
2nd
round
12 Florida Gulf Coast beating 4 Villanova
Same reason as above with them winning the first round; I
think it will be difficult to plan against them if they are clicking on their
shots with their playing style.
6 Creighton beating 3 Notre Dame
This could go either way, but I love Creighton’s slow,
spaced out motion offense so much. This
is probably more of what I hope for than anything else.
6 Colorado beating 3 Duke
I think this will be a close matchup. I didn’t feel like I had enough upsets and
went with this one since I think it could be close.
Other
games to watch:
4 UCLA vs. 13 Sacramento State
4 Villanova vs. 13 Cleveland State
4 Tennessee vs. 13 St. Louis
Bonus: Coin Flip Bracket
Every year, I do one men’s bracket where each game is
determined by the flip of a coin (I opt for only a men’s bracket since the men’s
tournament tends to be more random than the women’s tournament). This year, we get a 14 seed beating a 12 seed…that
I can’t imagine the NCAA would enjoy seeing for ratings purposes.
Who do you think will win the tournament? Let me know in the comments!
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