2023 NBA Playoff Predictions
While my NBA Playoff predictions post is a bit late (I recently moved, so I was more focused on that), I still wanted to release my predictions. All of my predictions are based on what I expected prior to the playoffs and not what happened so far in the series (if a major player has dealt with an injury, I noted how that might impact the series). For each series, I gave some general analysis and included a player to watch.
I do want to specify that if there is a year my predictions
are totally wrong, it is this year.
While I don’t think there will be a ton of surprises in the East, the
West is totally wacky. I seriously
wouldn’t be shocked if any of the top 7 teams wind up making it out of the
West, but only one can. In other words,
take this with a bit of a grain of salt and enjoy the ride.
First
Round
1 Milwaukee Bucks vs. 8 Miami Heat
I was so confident that Miami would beat Atlanta in the
Play-In that I wrote a prediction for a matchup with them as the 7 seed prior
to the Play-In…oops. That said, I still
think the Bucks match up well against the Heat. The Bucks are much better at shooting and
defending, especially since the Heat were pretty terrible from everywhere
except the free throw line. While it’s
easy to point out that the Heat have Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler
Herro, Adebayo isn’t always aggressive (especially when he is up against size),
Herro is more inconsistent than people give him credit for, and the Heat were swept
the last time they faced the Bucks in the playoffs (2021) with Butler shooting
just 29.7%. The Bucks have length and
size to neutralize their stars, and the rest of the team has struggled all
season. The Bucks usually lose a game in
a shoe-in series early, but I think they still win in 5.
Player to Watch:
Khris Middleton has only played 33 games due to injuries and is still
recovering from one. While I expect the
Bucks can win easily even with him recovering, it will be interesting to see
how the Bucks manage his minutes. It’s
worth noting that Middleton has only shot 43.6% from the field (career low) and
31.5% from 3 (lowest since 2012-13, his rookie year).
Prediction:
Milwaukee, 4-1
Note: This prediction
was made prior to the series and injuries to Giannis Antetokounmpo and Tyler
Herro. I still think the Bucks can win
this series without Giannis, but I have doubts about future series.
2 Boston Celtics vs. 7 Atlanta Hawks
I get that some people are likely going to like the Hawks
due to Trae Young, but this team really is the epitome of average. On top of that, the Celtics are great and likely
won’t have to take this series too seriously.
For all the talk of Young being an elite shooter, I have been adamant since
he was drafted that he is pretty inconsistent due to his shot selection. The Celtics don’t have a weak defender in
their starting lineup or in their rotation in general, so it will be difficult
to find someone that Young can terrorize, especially considering most of their
lineups have good size. Even when Dejounte
Murray is cooking, the Hawks go as far as Young will take them; in this series,
it won’t be far. That said, the Hawks
have some hope: the Celtics are poor at
defensive rebounding when Robert Williams is not on the court. If he struggles with injuries, they can operate
the same way they were able to beat Miami.
Player to Watch:
Not only will Derrick White be the player that Miami targets when
hunting for a basket, but I expect that they will throw their weakest defender
(aka Trae Young) at him as well due to the nature of matchups with Boston’s
roster. While he is good on both ends,
will he take advantage offensively? He
averaged 12.4 PPG while shooting career highs in 3P% (38.1%) and 2P% (54.8),
while looking good both on and off the ball.
Prediction:
Boston, 4-1
3 Philadelphia 76ers vs. 6 Brooklyn Nets
I consider the fact that Brooklyn finished 6th
after the trade deadline to be more of an indictment on how underwhelming Miami
is than how Brooklyn has been. Overall,
Brooklyn has stunk after trading Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, while looking
like a team that seemed prime to compete for a lottery spot at points. On the other hand, Philadelphia has looked
great, especially on the offensive end ever since I declared that this team
would not have success with their offensive designs (oops). They could sweep, though I expect some of
Brooklyn’s players will torch jumpers and Philly will botch their defense in
one game. Otherwise, I don’t expect this
will be a close series.
Player to Watch:
After initially struggling after the trade deadline, Nic Claxton has
figured it out and has looked so good for Brooklyn. In what will likely be Brooklyn’s lone
playoff series, he has to deal with Joel Embiid, one of the most dominant
players in the league on both ends. He
probably won’t be able to contain Embiid over the entire series (because who
can), but it would be interesting to see how he fairs on offense.
Prediction:
Philadelphia, 4-1
4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 5 New York Knicks
I will confess that I like Cleveland’s lineup much more than
New York’s, but that’s not the only reason I like Cleveland more in this
matchup. I think that a big part of New
York’s success this year was due to a jump in percentage of their midrange
shots, especially given Julius Randle’s jump in that range; while part of that
can be accredited to the looks that Jalen Brunson has created, there is an
element of luck. 2-pointers will be
tough to come against a dominant defense that Cleveland trots out, lead by Evan
Mobley and Jarrett Allen clocking up anything inside the arc, and also includes
Donovan Mitchell and Isaac Okoro (if healthy) making it tougher to reach their
two bigs. Normally New York would have
an advantage in depth, but Julius Randle’s injury doesn’t help their case.
Player to Watch:
The only clear path I see for New York to win would be through their
bench, which means that they need Sixth Man of the Year candidate Immanuel
Quickly to thrive. I think he is up for
the role, since he is an efficient (53.7 eFG%) and willing (11.6 FGA, 4th
on the team and 1st out of players not named Randle, Brunson, or
Barrett) shooter. He also is a plus
defender; while he isn’t going to be able to stop Donovan Mitchell or Darius
Garland, he can at least make it a little more difficult while not being an
easy out. He can be impactful both on
and off the ball, which is what I think the Knicks need.
Prediction:
Cleveland, 4-2
1 Denver Nuggets vs. 8 Minnesota Timberwolves
Can I be the first to say that I was shocked when Minnesota
won? I thought the turmoil from Rudy
Gobert punching Kyle Anderson would be season-ending and prevent them from
making the playoffs, but evidently not.
That said, Denver has been clicking so well this season, except for a
brief hiccup after it was obvious that they would be the one-seed. I honestly have wondered recently if four of
the top-five players in this series play for Denver (with all due respect to
Karl-Anthony Towns, who has been injured this year and has a pretty bad
postseason track record), with Anthony Edwards being the lone Timberwolf
alongside Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, and Michael Porter. On top of that, Naz Reid and Jalen McDaniels
are both injured, which really puts a damper on Minnesota’s chances. If I were coaching Denver, I would keep
throwing Aaron Gordon on Anthony Edwards until Edwards can figure out how to
beat out the athleticism and length that Gordon brings.
Player to Watch:
If I were coaching Minnesota and this series was played prior to this
year, I would keep setting screens until Anthony Edwards was matched up against
Michael Porter Jr. That said, Porter’s
defense has significantly improved to the point where I thought he was around
league average in the second half of the season. Denver needed him to step up, since Murray isn’t
the best defender and Jokic wasn’t as good defensively as he was in the past
(the advanced metrics often favor big men who can get some steals; they also
love Nikola Vucevic, who I would consider a minus defender). It will be interesting to see how he fairs
against the likely starting lineup featuring athleticism (Edwards), size (Rudy
Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns), and craftiness (Mike Conley and Kyle Anderson)
Prediction:
Denver, 4-0
2 Memphis Grizzlies vs. 7 Los Angeles Lakers
As much as I get that the Lakers have been good since the
Trade Deadline, the Grizzlies have been amazing for most of the year. On top of that, the Lakers have had an easier
schedule in that stretch, which allowed them to beat up on easier teams. It cannot be overstated that their depth is
suddenly really good alongside LeBron James and Antony Davis, though I like
Memphis’ depth even with injuries to Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke. They also have a legitimate big 3 in Ja
Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Dillon Brooks, who are skilled players who can
take over a series. It is entirely
possible that the Lakers win, since their team is so good after the moves made
at the trade deadline; what is most remarkable is that they appear to have
fixed every issue they had.
Player to Watch:
As much as I think it is overstated to discuss Jaren Jackson’s foul
troubles (especially when his teammate Dillon Brooks isn’t too far behind him),
it is essential that he doesn’t end up in foul trouble in this series, as they
need him against Anthony Davis. Jackson
is an absurd shot blocker from anywhere and is a frontrunner for Defensive
Player of the Year, though he can get baited into a foul, which has limited his
minutes at times. Without Steven Adams
out there, they’ll need him as much as he possibly can play to make it
difficult for Davis.
Prediction:
Memphis, 4-2
Note: This was
written before Ja Morant’s injury. If Morant
is significantly injured, I don’t see a way that Memphis makes it out of this
round.
3 Sacramento Kings vs. 6 Golden State Warriors
I have gone back and forth with this series ever since it
looked like this would be the matchup. It’s
strange since I genuinely believe the Kings are as good as they have been this
season and that the Warriors are as…mixed, for lack of a better term, as they
have been this season. That said, this
is the one matchup I think the Warriors have a serious shot for one main
reason: their road disadvantage is a
little different during this series. It
is no secret that the Warriors are horrible on the road, but Sacramento is
close enough to San Francisco where it will be about as close to a home game as
they can get. On top of that, the Kings
have been better on the road than at home, which gives the Warriors some breathing
room. It is worth noting that this Kings
team is legitimately good, led by De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, who are
perfect together, as well as an amazing supporting cast. I wouldn’t be shocked either way; as much as
I want to say “light the beam”, I can’t quite bring myself to do it.
Player to Watch:
Sacramento’s playoff experience is extremely limited, which usually
doesn’t bode well with playoff success. The
rotation player with the most playoff experience is Harrison Barnes, as he
actually won a championship playing alongside the Warriors’ big 3. He is a key 3rd/4th
best player on a team, and while he is more off ball than their stars, he can
absolutely make an impact on both ends, as well as with leadership. They need him to play well in order to win.
Prediction: Golden
State, 4-3
Note: This was
written before Draymond Green’s suspension was announced and Domantas Sabonis
got stepped on in the chest. If Sabonis
is healthy, light the beam. Otherwise,
probably not.
4 Phoenix Suns vs. 5 Los Angeles Clippers
If you’ve read several of my previous posts, you are
probably aware of my fears about betting on injured players. This really bodes well for predicting this
series, as both teams have injury-prone stars.
On top of that, you get two of the biggest experiments in the
league: a team that just traded for a
superstar and have barely played together, and a team who didn’t care about the
regular season while constantly toying with their lineups. Ultimately, I think the Suns’ experiment will
be cleaner since Kevin Durant is an easy player to fit into any roster due to
his skillset. Additionally, Paul
George’s injury doesn’t help matters.
Player to Watch:
At this point, I believe Chris Paul is more suited to play the role of a
playmaker while sometimes scoring, though I would seriously look into having
him as a 4th scoring option on offense. He is also a target on defense, which will be
interesting when considering that the Clippers have so many wings on their
roster, as well as an athletic and frenetic point guard in Russell Westbrook. While Paul should be a target on defense due
to his age and size, how do they approach this?
My fear with the Clippers is that they target him only to revert to
posting him up, which is fine if it’s Kawhi Leonard, but not as much if it’s
one of their supporting cast members.
Prediction:
Phoenix, 4-2
Note: This was
written prior to Kawhi Leonard being announced out for Game 3. If this is a lingering injury that causes him
to miss more games, I’d be shocked if the Clippers won.
Conference
Semifinals
1 Milwaukee Bucks vs. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers
I honestly love Cleveland’s roster construction and think
that they’re a fascinating team to watch over the next couple years. I think they are on to something with the
combination of Evan Mobley, Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen, and Darius Garland;
if either Isaac Okoro can consistently be confident or if they find another
solid wing (though I do like Cedi Osman, I think he’s better suited as a bench
player due to some defensive issues). However,
Milwaukee is better at this time. Even
if they can figure out how to slow down Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Cavs would
still have to figure out what to do with Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, something
I think they could struggle with. I
believe Holiday is the perfect answer to a cooking Mitchell or Garland. They also have Brook Lopez to make it more
difficult for Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley in the dunker spot, considering how
excellent he is in the paint. Beyond
that, I believe the Bucks are significantly deeper and have more playoff
experience, while Cleveland’s experience is much more limited given the youth
of their core roster.
Player to Watch:
I think it is an understatement to say that the Bucks do not have many weak
defenders, which will make it difficult for the Cavs to target anyone. That said, as long as Grayson Allen is on the
court, he will be the target of a star, especially Donovan Mitchell. Allen’s presence is essential given his
sharpshooting and ability off the ball, but he has proven to be an inconsistent
defender at times. While most would
focus on his dirty plays, I would focus on the fact that many of these occurred
after he had already been beaten to a spot.
Can he shake off the woes of the Boston series from last year? He couldn’t be much worse than that, but I still
wonder how he will handle Mitchell or Darius Garland charging at him.
Prediction:
Milwaukee, 4-2
2 Boston Celtics vs. 3 Philadelphia 76ers
Even though Philadelphia struggled against Boston in the
regular season, it is worth noting that this is not always an indication of
postseason success; for instance, in the WNBA season last year, Chicago swept
their season series against Connecticut, but lost their playoff series in 5 games
(something I predicted oddly accurately…don’t bank on these predictions being
that accurate). That said, Boston
matches up against them so well on both ends.
Defensively, they have multiple guard/wing options against Philadelphia
whether they go smaller or bigger, all of whom can limit everyone outside of
Joel Embiid. Even when Embiid has been a
superstar, they have struggled against Boston (even in their lone win against
Boston this year, it took Embiid having a 55-point game and P.J. Tucker
magically not being afraid to shoot for part of the game). On offense, Philadelphia doesn’t have a good
option to guard both of their top options (Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown),
while also not having the best options with their other rotation guys. I’d be surprised if Boston struggled in this series.
Player to Watch:
The Celtics have shown in the past that they can beat the 76ers while
allowing Joel Embiid to score at will (for instance, look at Embiid’s scoring
stats in the first round of the 2020 Playoffs).
As such he needs help. Since
James Harden has often struggled in past playoffs and Tobias Harris isn’t
consistently going to serve as a go-to scorer, Tyrese Maxey is the next logical
step. Maxey is a good shooter, solid
playmaker, aggressive scorer, and explosive athlete, especially in
transition. With Boston’s defense being
as good as it is (especially with guards and wings), I think the 76ers’ best
bet is to have Maxey go for a lot of transition looks.
Prediction:
Boston, 4-1
1 Denver Nuggets vs. 4 Phoenix Suns
In most situations, I would shy away from the injury-prone
team because I’m nervous about injuries.
I have often operated in that mindset when making any predictions in
this blog’s existence. As such, I feel
slightly terrified straying away from this and predicting Phoenix, especially
since their depth outside their four top players is a bit suspect. That said, I don’t trust Denver’s
defense. I know that their defensive
numbers in the clutch were better, but they’re an average defense, which almost
never fairs well in the playoffs. On top
of that, they would need either Nikola Jokic Michael Porter Jr. to be the third
best defender on their team behind Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
and guard a talented offensive player in order to succeed, which I wouldn’t
count on. That said, their path to
success is by riding their amazing offense, exploiting Phoenix’s lack of
chemistry, and focusing on the lack of depth of their opponents.
Player to Watch:
Denver’s entire offense runs through Nikola Jokic, who is one of the
best players in the NBA. How will Deandre
Ayton handle that? Ayton has improved
defensively over his career to the point where I would consider him a good
defender. That said, he needs to be elite
to give Jokic a difficult time. On the
other end, Jokic is not a good rim protector; as such, his best bet is to
target Jokic in the paint and not to revert back to fade away shots away from
the rim, which seems to be his comfort shot.
His presence in the series is essential and can totally change the
course of their ceiling.
Prediction: Phoenix,
4-3
2 Memphis Grizzlies vs. 6 Golden State Warriors
I get that people will look at this series and say that
Golden State should be favored due to foul trouble of some players (although it
is worth noting that the two teams as a whole are close to equal in fouls
committed) and experience. An obvious counterpoint
is that is that Golden State would need to win a road game, which is something
that I don’t disagree with. My biggest
reason for thinking Memphis will win is defense. For Memphis, it certainly won’t be easy, but Jaren
Jackson Jr. is an amazing rim protector who can limit attempts in the paint and
midrange and Dillon Brooks is a nice irritant who has had some success limiting
Steph Curry; they also have several players who are solid defenders. As for Golden State, there is a case to be
made that they weren’t trying as hard defensively during the regular season. That said, this often doesn’t work in the
playoffs, and I have worries on paper.
In particular, who will defend Ja Morant and Desmond Bane? Bane has an easier answer, but I have
concerns (see the Player to Watch section for more on that).
Player to Watch:
Similar to my discussion above, Golden State will need defense,
especially when guarding Ja Morant and Desmond Bane. I think their best bet is to consider Morant
a lost cause in 1-on-1 and is best contented by having one of their bigs help
in the paint and take their chances.
Bane on the other hand is interesting; Klay Thompson is not the defender
he is prior to the injuries, which leaves Andrew Wiggins as their best
bet. Wiggins is such an important 2-way
player for the Warriors, but he missed a significant amount of time when
tending to the health of his father.
While I think it is amazing he was able to do that and I applaud him for
it, I just don’t know what kind of NBA shape he is in (as a note, I’m not
assuming he’s out of shape. For
instance, when I ran cross country and track in high school, there were several
occasions where someone would come into a cross country season in great shape
overall, but not proper shape to run a 5k.
I’m looking at this for in-game shape).
I expect there will be rust for obvious reasons; is he able to shake
enough off to guard Bane and be effective offensively?
Prediction:
Memphis, 4-2
Conference
Finals
1 Milwaukee Bucks vs. 2 Boston Celtics
I seriously believe this could be one of the more competitive
playoff series in recent memory. Both teams
are built for success on both ends, especially on defense, and are super deep
and talented at the top end. There are
also a lot of similarities between the two teams, as they focus on shots from
deep and have key players dealing with injuries. Ultimately, I trust the Celtics more for a
few reasons. First off, while Milwaukee
has tried harder at defending 3’s after they were humiliated the last time they
faced Boston, I don’t think they are as equipped to face a team that is great
at shooting. Second, Milwaukee has guys
that Boston can target (I think Grayson Allen and Joe Ingles are able to be
targeted at this point), whereas Boston doesn’t (even guys like Malcolm Brogdon,
Sam Houser, and Payton Pritchard are at least close to average defenders). I think the most important thing is that
Milwaukee needs a go-to scorer at the end of games. Khris Middleton struggled with injuries for
the entire season and never looked like himself; is he ready to be that
guy? Boston has two in Jayson Tatum and
Jaylen Brown.
Player to Watch:
I believe that the series changing factor is the health of Robert
Williams. He is a dominant paint
defender in particular who can also switch onto guys outside the paint with
success. That said, he has been hampered
by injuries this season, only playing 35 games (though he has looked amazing
when healthy). If he is healthy, I
believe that the Celtics win. That said,
if he is not, I think the Bucks win.
Prediction:
Celtic, 4-3
2 Memphis Grizzlies vs. 4 Phoenix Suns
While Phoenix is the intuitive selection in this series due
to their star power, I think that Memphis will match up better. The biggest reason for this is because
Memphis has so much depth while Phoenix gets pretty thin fast after the top 4. While the playoffs typically rely more on
star power, Memphis can just keep throwing fresh bodies out there; they had 9
players with at least 20 MPG and 11 who topped 16 MPG (though these totals
account for Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke, who are both injured and will
likely miss the playoffs). I also think
that Memphis has a better idea of what they have; while there was a lot of
focus on Phoenix’s stars not playing a lot together, I think it is worth noting
that they brought in several bench players and haven’t figured out who to play
off the bench yet. As dangerous as the
Suns look, sometimes consistency and the status quo work. On top of that, I think Jaren Jackson could
act as a roamer and make Phoenix have to stay out of the midrange, an area they
like to occupy.
Player to Watch:
With Phoenix having indisputably better top-end talent on their roster,
Memphis will have to beat them with their depth, which is significantly greater
than that of Phoenix. One game changing
bench player for Memphis is Luke Kennard.
Kennard is one of the best shooters in the league, but he will go
through stretches where he doesn’t appear confident in his shot. Prior to Memphis trading for him, he attempted
just 3.8 3’s a game, but attempted 5.7 after the trade (while shooting a whopping
54% from deep in that span). Even after
the trade, he has moments where he seems to second guess his shot. Which version of Kennard do they get this
series? The more aggressive one opens
the defense so much, especially since he has led the league in 3-point
percentage each of the last two seasons.
Prediction: Memphis,
4-2
NBA
Finals
2 Boston Celtics vs. 2 Memphis Grizzlies
The statement I am about to make might be the most obvious
possible statement I could ever say, but I think it is true here: injuries really stink. I think this could go to 7 games if both
Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke were healthy, and it might be even more fun if
we knew Robert Williams would be healthy.
Unfortunately, that’s not how life works. On top of that, I think that the length that
Boston has will limit both Ja Morant and Desmond Bane. That said, I am curious to see how someone
like Jayson Tatum, who likes jumpers from anywhere though he is a bit streaky,
will fair against Jaren Jackson. I think
Brown won’t be bothered inside the arc by him, but I’m curious if Jackson can
bait Tatum into forcing his shot. I also
think that Morant will be a liability on defense against Boston’s guards and
can also be a target for their star wings to switch onto. One thing that is fascinating is their depth;
both teams are incredibly deep and have very few weak spots.
Player to Watch: I’m
cheating here and naming 2 players to watch since they tie in together. Both Boston and Memphis are interesting
because they have two of the best backups in the league, as Boston has Malcolm
Brogdon and Memphis has Tyus Jones. No
matter how healthy both teams are, they will each be essential for their
respective teams for different reasons. Brogdon
is essential as someone who comes in to provide more scoring, attack the
defense, look for shots, create plays, and cause chaos as needed. Jones has this knack for slowing the game
down, making the right reads, and making any play necessary. Both are able to play on and off the ball, are
at least average defensively, and are essential to how their teams
operate. I think watching how each of
them play will be interesting to see.
Prediction:
Boston, 4-2
Who do you think will win the Championship? Any series you’re excited for? Let me know in the comments!
Comments
Post a Comment