2023 NBA Finals Prediction

We have reached the NBA Finals, and we have just the series that everybody predicted from the start…just kidding.  While I didn’t predict either team to make it to the Finals, I thought Denver had a chance to make it and thought they would beat the Lakers entering the Conference Finals (I thought Denver would win in 6 games, though they ultimately swept the series), and I unofficially (as in not publishing this prediction on the blog) thought that Miami would beat Boston in 6 games in the Eastern Conference Finals (it took them 7) after they beat the Knicks (that said, I wouldn’t have predicted them beating Milwaukee).  Even though Miami stunk in the regular season, I am excited that we have these teams in the Finals since we have two competitive teams who are consistently talented and have amazing coaches, three characteristics that weren’t always consistently the case for any other team in the playoffs this year.

On paper, this series should be a no-brainer for Denver to win, even based on how both teams are playing this series.  From a percentage and analytics standpoint during the playoffs, Denver has the edge in offensive (121.0 vs. 116.3), net rating (+8.6 vs. +4.4), free throw rate (.249 vs. .243), TS% (.595 vs. .583), eFG% (.559 vs. .548), TOV% (10.4 vs. 11.5), ORB% (25.6 vs. 21.8), DRB% (81.1 vs. 74.6), FT/FGA (.203 vs. .195), 2P% (54.8 vs. 52.4), and FT% (81.5 vs. 80.4), while Miami has the edge on defensive rating (111.9 vs. 112.4), 3P% (39.0 vs. 38.6), 3Pr (.389 vs. .356), and some defensive metrics.  On top of that, Denver has more length, likely a better top-2 pairing with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, the best coach that Miami has faced this entire series, a difficult matchup for Bam Adebayo on both ends (while Jokic is fine but not stellar defensively, Adebayo’s recent track record of being scared to go up against Derrick White doesn’t bode well on that end), and is much better attacking the zone than any other team Miami has faced.  I consider Denver to be the most consistent team in the playoffs and is easily the best team Miami has faced thus far, which will be more challenging for Miami coming off a long series.  That said, I’ve pretty much given up thinking about what things mean on paper with Miami.

There were a few reasons I thought Miami would beat Boston going into the Conference Finals; while the biggest reason is one that I don’t think applies to Denver (which is related to focus and desire to win), there are still some things that make me scared.  The most obvious two are that Jimmy Butler is a superstar who magically looks like one of the best players ever during the playoffs yet again and Erik Spoelstra is one of the best coaches of all time and is possibly the best coach currently in the league.  During their series against Boston, Caleb Martin was a star, Duncan Robinson appeared to regain confidence, and Max Struss and Gabe Vincent appeared to be as hot as they’ve been all playoffs.  There is also hope that Adebayo will be more aggressive this series against a lesser defender in Jokic.

With all that said, I think the biggest game changer will come down to the size of the lineups.  Miami’s best lineup so far in my opinion has been a small ball lineup containing 6’3 Vincent, 6’5 Strus, 6’5 Martin, 6’7 Butler, and 6’9 Adebayo.  They will face difficulties on both ends against a Denver 8-man rotation that includes 6’11 Jokic, 6’4 Murray, 6’10 Michael Porter Jr., 6’8 Aaron Gordon, 6’5 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, 6’4 Bruce Brown, 6’8 Jeff Green, and 6’7 Christian Braun.  Considering how good Denver is scoring within 10 feet and that Adebayo is not a traditional rim protector (though he is an amazing defender), I question how they will go about stopping them, especially since Denver is awesome at adjusting to zone.  While they might be able to get away with throwing a smaller defender on Gordon at times, he’s a smart enough cutter that it will eventually backfire.  Miami’s two most feasible bigger options are playing Kevin Love, who is a massive (no pun intended) defensive liability, and Cody Zeller, who will get torn to shreds by Jokic. 

On offense, I think Miami will have trouble against them on individual matchups.  I would have Caldwell-Pope on Butler and Gordon on Adebayo in many situations; even though that might be strange for Jokic, Miami attacks using the Butler-Adebayo pick-and-roll a significant amount, which they absolutely would use to target Jokic.  Even with that, Porter is suddenly playing much better defensively, which will especially make him valuable against Miami’s smaller options.  While Jokic is not a horrible defender, I personally think this will be a difficult series for him defensively.  If he’s on Adebayo, he will likely end up being a target in picks; otherwise, he will be guarding a good shooter if he’s thrown on one of the 3 smaller players; he’ll also have to be careful to not get into foul trouble, which could change the series.  Even though Murray isn’t the best defender, he competes, and his size is comparable to that of 3 of Miami’s best options, as well as that of Kyle Lowry off the bench, which would make him a bit easier to hide.  I think 6’7 Duncan Robinson will be essential for Miami in this series, as he provides a shooting threat and a bigger body than most of the team.

While Denver could sweep this series, we naturally have to account for the fact that Miami will have at least one game where they appear unstoppable and do everything right, accounting for a win.  Since I’ve given up on trying to figure out what to expect with Miami, I’ll also give them another win.  While it could go to 7 or even be a Miami series win, I think Denver is just too good, and their defense has improved enough to the point that I’m not too worried about it.

Prediction:  Denver wins, 4-2

 

 

Who do you think will win the Finals?  Let me know in the comments!