2023 WNBA Predictions
The WNBA season is finally here! After a chaotic offseason with several superstars moving teams, a controversy surrounding Las Vegas trading a player who was recently pregnant (as much as I want to discuss the issues surrounding the Dearica Hamby trade, I won’t be because I really don’t feel qualified enough to do this in this situation), and several interesting storylines from the business side, the season is set to get underway for a potentially extremely exciting 2023 season! In this post, I am predicting where each team will finish, give a brief description of each team, discuss one player who could make a massive difference (I normally discuss non-stars as the x-factor, which is something I tried to do with a couple exceptions), and made my predictions for the playoffs.
1: Las Vegas Aces
While New York might feel flashier, Vegas returns a good
part of their core with some major additions. They already had what I considered a super
team consisting of reigning MVP A’ja Wilson, a dominant 2-way player who also
showed she can shoot, elite shooter and scorer Kelsey Plum, dominant combo
guard Chelsea Gray, and sharpshooter Jackie Young, all of whom were named All-Stars
within the last two seasons. Now they
have added Candace Parker, a legendary big who is still a great defender and is
a versatile offensive player, especially as a passer and shooter. I think she will fit perfectly with a team
that has amazing spacing and will be a dominant defense anchor to pair with Wilson. Losing Dearica Hamby is a tough blow, but
their depth isn’t totally shot (no pun intended); they will have returning
players in Riquna Williams, a guard with a smooth shot, and Kiah Stokes, a
strong defensive big who will give opposing benches headaches, as well as newly
acquired Alysha Clark, a smart smaller forward who is good on both ends and has
a pretty shot. Becky Hammon implemented
the perfect system for the lineup last year that resulted in a championship; it
will be tough to see this going any other way.
X-Factor: Last
year, Jackie Young got off to an amazing start, but slowed down as the season
went on, to the point where her shot attempts significantly dropped in the
playoffs. While part of that was due to
her dealing with injuries, I wonder if having Candace Parker on the roster will
make it more difficult for her to find shots.
2: New York
Liberty
This team went from being Sabrina Ionescu’s team to being a
super team almost overnight. Of course
there is still Ionescu, a triple-double machine who can dominate a possession
and make something out of nothing, but now they have 4 All-Stars. It wasn’t surprising to see Breanna Stewart,
one of the best scorers in the game while also a great defender, sign with New
York, or to see Courtney Vandersloot, one of the best point guards in the game
who can play on and off the ball while also being possibly the best passer the
league has ever seen, follow Stewart.
The bigger shock was trading for Jonquel Jones, the 2021 MVP who is
dominant on both ends and an efficient shooter on difficult shots. Suddenly having either Jones and Ionescu be their
second and third best players respectively makes this a terrifying team. Somehow their depth is also good, as they have
Kayla Thornton, a nice two-way player who is smart, Betnijah Laney, a volume
scorer who was an All-Star in 2021, Stefanie Dolson, a valuable stretch big, Marine
Johannes, one of the league’s best shooters, and Han Xu, another stretch big. I expect there will be some growing pain, but
they have the talent, depth, and shooting to make it work.
X-Factor: When
you have a big 4 and have to face a potential big 5, the best question is who player
5 will be. There are several options, I
think Kayla Thornton is the best bet due to her defensive versatility. That said, the biggest question will be how
her shooting is, as she is a streaky shooter.
3: Connecticut Sun
There is no denying that Connecticut will look different
this year, as Jonquel Jones is now in New York, several supporting cast members
are no longer there, and coach Curt Miller has moved onto L.A. They still have 3 star players, as they have
Alyssa Thomas, a dominant point forward who is an elite defender, DeWanna
Bonner, a amazing defender who can shoot some, and Brionna Jones, a talented
player on both ends in the paint. One of
the biggest additions they made was acquiring Tiffany Hayes, who should provide
an instant scoring option and an upgrade over Courtney Williams offensively,
who did fit very well. Their depth looks
reassuring too, as they have Natisha Hiedeman, a 3-and-D guard who has
developed as a playmaker, DiJonai Carrington, a talented athlete who is a
natural defensively, Rebecca Allen, a good shooter with nice size who could fit
well defensively, Tyasha Harris, a smooth backup playmaker, and Olivia Nelson-Ododa,
a solid backup big. The biggest question
I have is regarding coaching; newly hired head coach Stephanie White hasn’t had
the best track record at Vanderbilt and with the Indiana Storm, so I’m nervous
how this will go.
X-Factor: While
Jonquel Jones was their star, she wasn’t a natural scorer, which was something
the team lacked. They acquired Tiffany Hayes,
who can fill in the role, and should be even more efficient given the playmaking
around her and the fact that others can take the defensive burden away. That said, the big question is if this is the
year she shakes the injury bug that shaped the last two seasons.
4: Washington
Mystics
Going into last year, I thought that Washington would go as
far as Elena Della Donne’s health went; now that she appears to be healthy,
which is massive for them. She is one of
the best scorers in the league and a solid defensive and versatile defensive
player who is a superstar. That said, I
love their depth around her. They have a
second All-Star in Ariel Atkins, a nice shooter who has developed into a good
defender, Natasha Cloud, a talented defender and point guard, Shakari Austin, a
talented young defensive big, Amanda Zahui B., a solid defense big with a
smooth jumper, Brittney Sykes, an aggressive combo guard with a penchant for
picking up steals, Kristi Tolliver, a nice shooter and playmaker, Shatori
Walker-Kimbrough, a solid 3-and-D guard, and Myisha Hines-Allen, a talented
3-and-D wing. I really like this team all
around, though it will be interesting to see how a deep team competes against
top-heavy teams.
X-Factor: I am
convinced that Natasha Cloud is one of the best defensive guards in the league,
as well as an excellent playmaker. That
said, her jumper is not good. I think
that if her jumper can get closer to league average then she could make this
team a top-3 one; while it’s possible with her free throw shooting, she is 31,
so improvement isn’t a guarantee.
5: Phoenix Mercury
After a rough season where they stumbled into the playoffs, it’s
easy to assume that they will be right back to the top of the league. That said, there are legitimate questions
related to their team. Brittney Griner is
a dominant superstar on both ends, but after being detained in Russia for a
year, it is fair to wonder what she will look like returning to professional
basketball; even is she is in amazing shape, pro basketball shape is
different. They also have two other
stars with questions, as Diana Taurasi is one of the best of all time and is an
amazing scorer, but is older and injury prone, and Skyler Diggins-Smith, one of
the best guards in the game who also seemed to not be in the best standing with
the team. Other than them, they have Brianna
Turner, a nice defensive big, Sophie Cunningham, a sharpshooting wing, Moriah
Jefferson, a nice shooter and solid playmaker, and Shey Peddy, a nice finisher
for a guard who is good at cutting. It’s
difficult to predict where they will finish; it could be top-3, it could even
be further down if nothing works.
X-Factor: I
find it kind of redundant and silly to call a team’s best player their x-factor,
but I truly believe that this season hinges on Brittney Griner. I still believe that she will still be a star,
just how dominant she is will be crucial in how this team performs on both ends
of the court. She is a game changer, but
I’m curious about what her playing style will look like, as she recently had extended
her range prior to the detainment.
6: Los Angeles Sparks
While I have settled on ranking them 6th, I really
like L.A.’s lineup and think they could crack the top-3. Their built around Nneka Ogwumike, a versatile
star on both ends who I seriously think is one of the most underrated stars in
the league (she wasn’t even an All-Star when she won MVP in 2016). They acquired Dearica Hamby, a great finisher
and defender who has such a high basketball IQ, Azura Stevens, a big who can do
a bit of everything, especially defending and shooting, and Jasmine Thomas, a
smart point guard who is an awesome defender.
They also have Katie Lou Samuelson, a great shooter, Chiney Ogwumike, a
skilled offensive player, Jordin Canada, a smart playmaker, and Lexie Brown, a
good shooter and efficient scorer. I
think it will be interesting to see what Curt Miller does in his first year as
coach, as he found success with a team with multiple stars who weren’t necessarily
scoring minded in Connecticut.
X-Factor: On a
team full of players who I think are underrated, I believe Azura Stevens might
be the most underrated player in the league.
She is a big who is an awesome shooter, great defender, is versatile,
and is willing to do all the little things.
She didn’t have a starring role in Chicago, but I think she can really
thrive in a bigger role in L.A.
7: Dallas Wings
This team honestly confuses me so much. I feel like they could be one of the top
teams based on talent alone, especially since so many of their key players are
younger, but they are built around several inefficient scorers who like to
shoot. Their star is Arike Ogunbowale,
who is a high volume scorer and isn’t the most efficient from 2 (she has a good
jumper so I think it’s more shot selection), but has shown she can drag a team
into the playoffs with her offense and intensity. Satou Sabally is a young talent who already
has an All-Star appearance to her name, but she is inefficient at scoring and
is almost always injured. They just acquired
Natasha Howard, a nice defender and finisher who has multiple championships to
her name. Besides them, they have
Crystal Dangerfield, an aggressive scorer who thrived as a rookie in 2020 but
hasn’t rediscovered it yet, Diamond DeShields, a solid defender who takes a lot
of shots, though is inefficient, and Teaira McCowan, a talented defensive big
who is also a nice finisher. They will
likely rely on two rookies as well, including Maddy Siegrist, a great scorer
who is a skilled all-around player, and Lou Lopez Senechal, a sharpshooter who is
smart off the ball. If all goes right
and one or two players break out, this could be a top-3 or top-4 team; that
said, it is also possible they miss out on the playoffs.
X-Factor: It
is not particularly common that a rookie is essential for a team that just made
the playoffs, but I believe this is the case with Lou Lopez Senechal. She seemed to be a bit of a reach with the 5th
pick in the Draft, but one thing is for certain: she is an elite shooter. She is older (she just turned 25), but she showed
that she can adjust to any situation, as she went from a superstar role at Fairfield
to an off-ball role at UConn, thriving in both.
Dallas needs shooters, so they need Senechal.
8: Atlanta Dream
This team has a lot of youth, but I think they could make
the playoffs. They are led by star guard
and reigning Rookie of the Year Rhyne Howard, who struggled with efficiency
inside the arc, but is a good shooter, aggressive scorer, and smart
defender. I believe she could make a
jump, especially in her efficiency with a year under her belt. They have a pretty deep team as well, as they
have Cheyenne Parker, a great defender and finisher, Allisha Gray, a great
shooter and solid defender, Danielle Robinson, a steady and smart point guard, Nia
Coffey, a solid defender and rebounder, Aari McDonald, a great defender and
quality shooter, Monique Billings, a quality defender and rebounder, rookie
Hayley Jones, a quality player who makes smart plays on both ends, Naz Hillmon,
who looked awesome defensively as a rookie, AD Durr, a sharpshooter, and rookie
Laeticia Amihere, a solid defender with some finishing potential. It’s not a lock that they make the playoffs,
but I like their chances of sneaking in.
X-Factor: My
biggest question about this team is who is going to be their lead playmaker. While Danielle Robinson is the most ready for
the role, I wonder if Aari McDonald could develop into it. While she has thrived as a shooter and
on-ball scorer, she has shown potential as a playmaker in her young WNBA career
and college. While I’d start with
Robinson, I would try to develop McDonald for the role too.
9: Chicago Sky
With a good chunk of their core leaving, Chicago went from
championship contender who won it all in 2021 to a team that I wouldn’t bet on
to make the playoffs this year. Their
only returning starter is All-Star Kahleah Copper, who is a good defender and
aggressive scorer who has significantly improved her efficiency and shooting stroke;
that said, I am a bit nervous about what she’ll be like when she is clearly the
top option on the team (I always envisioned her as the perfect second or third
option on a team). They have brought in Courtney
Williams, an aggressive scorer with a nice shooting touch, playmaking ability,
and solid defense, and Marina Mabrey, a smooth shooter who is also improving on
the ball. Some of their other players
include Isabella Harrison, a solid defender, rebounder, and finisher, Rebekah
Gardner, who showed amazing shooting and finishing ability as an older rookie, Elizabeth
Williams, a solid defensive big with some finishing potential, and Dana Evans,
who is raw but is a good athlete with some potential on both ends. I’m a little confused with this team and
where they might finish, but I still think they’ll perform better than the next
3 teams.
X-Factor: When
Courtney Williams was Atlanta’s top option in 2021, they were not particularly good
and wound up with the top pick in the draft.
When Williams was Connecticut’s 4th or 5th option
in 2022 (depending on who was on the court), they finished 3rd and
made it to the Finals. How will Chicago
be with her as a 2nd or 3rd option? It’s worth noting that she brings quality
defense even if her shot is off.
10: Minnesota Lynx
I honestly would be lying to you if I told you that I had
any idea what to expect with this team now that Sylvia Fowles has retired. Their star, Napheesa Collier, an aggressive
scorer and talented defender, will be back after missing most of last year due
to having a baby (who is absolutely adorable).
They also added Diamond Miller, the second pick of the draft, who is an
aggressive scorer and has nice size for a guard, though I expect will struggle
with efficiency. Otherwise, the team has
Kayla McBride, a nice shooter who also is a solid defender, Aerial Powers, an
aggressive player who is a good defender, Jessica Shephard, a skilled defender
and finisher, Rachel Banham, a great shooter, Damiris Dantas, a good defender
with a bit of a shooting touch, Natalie Achonwa, a nice finisher, Bridget Carleton,
a nice shooter, and Tiffany Mitchell, an aggressive scorer. I think a lot will have to go right for them
to make the playoffs, but they have some interesting pieces.
X-Factor: If
this team wants to make the playoffs, one of their players other than Napheesa
Collier has to play at an All-Star level.
While she hasn’t played the role of high-volume scorer recently, Kayla
McBride is a 3-time All-Star who is a talented shooter. I think she could be efficient in a larger
role, especially if Collier and rookie Diamond Miller command a lot of
attention.
11: Seattle Storm
I think this team is about to enter some new territory given
that Breanna Stewart left and Sue Bird retired.
While they will likely be rebuilding, it is worth noting that they still
have star 2-way combo guard Jewell Lloyd, who is likely to see a massive jump
in workload given the status of the team.
They don’t have anyone else who feels highly likely to be a star, but
some other players they have include Ezi Magbegor, an awesome defensive big who
can shoot and finish efficiently, Kia Nurse, a smart defender who is coming
back from missing a year due to injury, Sami Whitcomb, a smooth shooter and
efficient finisher, Theresa Plaisance, a nice shooter, Merdedes Russell, a
quality backup big, Jordan Houston, a rookie who is athletic, though doesn’t
have the best efficiency. They might
have fun moments, but I wouldn’t bet on them at any point.
X-Factor: It
doesn’t feel like an understatement to say that there isn’t a clear-cut second star
on this team. That said, I would see
what Ezi Magbegor can do in a larger offensive role. While she’s shown that she can defend well
and hit shots, I seriously wonder what she could do if attempting 10-15 field
goals a game. It probably won’t lead to
a ton of wins, but I think she’s ready for the task.
12: Indiana Fever
This is a team that I look at and would predict would be
very good in 3-5 years from now given the upside on this roster. The issue in this case is that they have so
many players who are either going to be playing their first or second season in
the league. The good news in terms of
veterans is that they have Kelsey Mitchell, one of the better scorers in the
league who has also developed as a playmaker.
They have two rookies who were drafted with first round picks in top
pick Aaliyah Boston, a dominant force in the paint who is also has a high
basketball IQ on defense, and 7th pick Grace Berger, a good
playmaker and shooter with nice size for a guard. They also have several second year players
with NaLyssa Smith, a good defender and aggressive scorer who shot better than
I expected, Queen Egbo, who already looks like a great defender and impressive
finisher, Kristy Wallace, who has a nice jumper, and Lexie Hull, who struggled
last year, but has nice shooting potential.
Some of their veterans include Victoria Vivians, an athletic guard with
some defensive ability, Erica Wheeler, a solid offensive guard who was an
All-Star in her previous tenure in Indiana, and Emma Gannon, who is an
efficient scorer. They’re not there yet
with their rebuild, but they have a lot of young talent; they shouldn’t be out
of the playoff race for too much longer.
X-Factor:
While she struggled with efficiency inside the paint, I thought NaLyssa
Smith showed a lot of potential as a rookie.
She looked like a good defender for a rookie, was incredibly confident,
and shot better from deep than I expected.
If she can improve the efficiency inside the arc and continue to build
on what she had, this team could make a nice jump.
Playoff
Predictions:
First Round
1 Las Vegas vs. 8 Atlanta Dream: Las Vegas, 2-0
2 New York vs. 7 Dallas Sparks: New York, 2-0
3 Connecticut vs. 6 Los Angeles: Connecticut, 2-1
4 Washington vs. 5 Phoenix:
Washington, 2-1
Semifinals
1 Las Vegas vs. 4 Washington: Las Vegas 3-0
2 New York vs. 3 Connecticut: New York 3-1
Finals
1 Las Vegas vs. 2 New York:
Las Vegas, 3-1
Who are you excited to see this year? What teams do you think will perform
best? Let me know in the comments!
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