Why the March Madness Results Weren’t as Surprising as People Think

One of the most common responses to the March Madness this year is to discuss how surprising the results were.  There absolutely were surprises in both tournaments; in the Men’s tourney, a number 1 seed lost in the first round and the highest seed to make the Final Four was a 4 seed, and in the Women’s tourney, two number 1 seeds lost in the second round (at home) and no 1 seed made the Championship game.  That said, I don’t believe that these results were as surprising as many are making it sound.  Of course, hindsight is 20-20 and it’s easy to say that these happened now.  On top of that, my brackets were not particularly accurate (especially on the men’s side, where I predicted no Final Four teams), so it seems weird saying there weren’t too many surprises.  That said, I think there were many teams that could do well (particularly in the Men’s tournament), something I don’t think I expressed as well as I wish I had prior to the tournament.  As such, I would like to discuss several of the teams that went further and how surprising (or unsurprising) each was.

 

Men’s

I’m starting with the Men’s tournament because there were more perceived surprises and because it was more open in terms of who was contending.  I predicted that Houston would win, but they lost in the Sweet Sixteen.  Some of the metrics that I use to make my predictions include number of players who could potentially be drafted (especially upperclassmen), 3-point percentage, defensive rating, and free throw percent, with the number of potential draft selections entering the tournament being the most important in my predictions.  In this portion, I will discuss the Final Four teams (which will also touch on each number 1 seed that lost prior to the Elite Eight).

 

UConn

UConn was an interesting team; they were a 4 seed with 4 players who had draft potential (including 2 juniors and a sophomore potentially in the first round), had solid-good stats in each metric that I look at, and played very well throughout the season, though they had one rough stretch that likely caused them to drop out of a top-2 seed.  While they likely dropped to a 4-seed due to them losing in the semifinals of the Big East tournament (the NCAA tends to favor the conference tournaments when seeding, something I find stupid when considering a few one-off games), I only had them making the Sweet Sixteen due to their competition and wouldn’t have had them getting to the Final Four.  I had them losing to Kansas since I had a lot of faith in Kansas’ starting lineup; that said, I did find it think the game could go either way.  That said, I had UCLA making the Elite Eight and would have had UConn losing to them (I’m not sure if I would have had them beating Gonzaga; more than likely I wouldn’t have).  I even thought that their second-round matchup against St. Mary’s wasn’t a cakewalk, though I had no qualms about them winning.  Ultimately, this team reminds me of Baylor in 2021; they were a legitimately competitive team that had a potential first round pick raise their stock to a potential lottery pick (this year was Jordan Hawkins) and a couple upperclassmen who likely rose their stock (Andre Jackson and Adama Sanogo); they also had Donovan Clingan who could have snuck into the first round, though he is returning back to college next year.  Ultimately it wasn’t a surprise to me that they won, though I wouldn’t have predicted them making the Final Four due to being in what I considered to be the toughest region.

 

San Diego State

In my opinion, this was the biggest surprise of the tournament.  I had them losing in the second round to Furman; even if I had them beating Furman, I never would have had them make it to the Elite Eight, let alone the Championship.  The biggest reason I never would have had them making the Championship game was due to the fact that they had no players who were considered possible draft picks (even after the tournament, I have nobody on my list of potentially draftable players from there at this time).  They were a solid all-around team on both ends defensively and shooting (94.8 defensive rating and 35.3 3P%), though these types of teams typically don’t fair well in the tournament.  This was a strange region since Alabama was the overall number 1 seed though I didn’t think they stood a chance of making it out of the region due to a heavy reliance on a freshman and a lot of off-court issues surrounding the team; Arizona’s loss to Princeton (who is discussed a little later in this post) made things a bit more chaotic.  That said, I thought that both Baylor (who I had making the Final Four) and Creighton (who is discussed a little later in this post) would make it out of the region instead of San Diego State.

 

Miami

I was not surprised by Miami making the Final Four and probably would have had them making it had it not been for one factor:  I had Houston beating them and winning the championship.  I will confess that I thought the region was fairly easy outside of those two teams and that I likely would have had Miami making the Final Four had I thought they would win this matchup.  That’s not to say that Miami had a cakewalk by any means (I thought that Indiana could be a tough opponent), though I felt that Texas and Xavier were two of the weakest 2 and 3 seeds respectively (Texas has some competition with a team from the next region, though their offense was atrocious).  I was mostly confident in Miami due to two upperclassmen wings:  Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller, two players who could sneak into the second round.  They had several other nice supporting cast players around them, but the two of them were the ones who I thought would lead the team.  It was weird since their offense was what would bring them there, though their shooting was nonexistent at times and their defense was effective.  That said, I thought their tournament run should not be regarded as a surprise at all; I only didn’t have them going further due to one matchup.

 

Florida Atlantic

Florida Atlantic University was the team that was cited as the biggest surprise in this tournament…except for the fact that I wasn’t too shocked by them going far.  I know it sounds ridiculous to say that in retrospect, especially since I had them losing in the first round, but in my bracket, the team that I had beating them (Memphis) made it to the Elite Eight despite me not trusting them.  I had Memphis beating them due to the fact that FAU didn’t have any potential draft picks (and still doesn’t on my board), but I probably would have had them going far.  Despite an easier schedule than many teams, they had a high 3-point percent (37.2%) and good defensive rating (93.5), both of which fair well in the tournament when facing underwhelming teams that are overhyped.  I think this is important to emphasize because I thought something wacky would happen in this region since I thought it was the weakest region.  Ultimately, I thought this region made a case for weakest 1 seed in Purdue (while I wouldn’t have had them losing in the first round, I wasn’t shocked and thought there was little chance they made it to the Sweet Sixteen), 2 seed in Marquette (I think Texas was worse, but there’s a case), 4 seed in Tennessee (their defense was great, but offense was atrocious), and 5 seed in Duke (the team was too young in my mind).  I had Kansas State making it out of the region by default, but I got skeptical once Keyontae Johnson’s shot was inconsistent.  While I doubt that I would have predicted them making it to the Final Four (I think I would have had Kansas State making it out in majority of situations), this shouldn’t be treated as a shock solely because of their seed; it shouldn’t be a treated as a surprise when the NCAA botched the seeding and included 4 teams that I thought were too highly seeded all as top-5 seeds in the region.  That said, this shouldn’t take away from what FAU did during the tournament; they were amazing and rose to the occasion in each game, something that is easier said than done.

 

 

Other teams I’d like to discuss

In addition to the teams that made the Final Four, there are a few other teams that I would like to discuss.  I felt like there was one team that wasn’t a surprise that was treated as a surprise, 3 surprise teams I found interesting (including one nobody seemed to think was a surprise due to their seeding), and one matchup that I thought was intriguing and the most difficult to predict entering the tournament.

 

Creighton

Creighton was an interesting team since they were inconsistent this season and were a 6-seed (which might have been justified), though they faired well in each of my measurements.  They had 4 non-freshmen who were potential draft picks, including senior Baylor Scheierman (who didn’t declare), junior Ryan Kalkbrenner (who didn’t declare), and sophomores Trey Alexander (who is looking like a second rounder at the time of writing) and Arthur Kaluma (someone who was thought to be a potential first round pick entering this year, though he struggled at points).  They also shot 36% from 3, 76.7% from the line, and had a defensive rating of 97.9.  Prior to the bracket being announced, I thought this would be an interesting team to watch.  That said, there was one issue after it was announced:  they would have to face Baylor in the second round, another team I found intriguing.  Ultimately, I went with Baylor, though I wasn’t shocked to see Creighton reach the Elite Eight (had I had Creighton winning that matchup, I think it is possible I would have predicted them making the Final Four).

 

Princeton

There is no universe in which I would have had 15 seed Princeton beating 2 seed Arizona; the only of my metrics that favored Princeton was defensive rating, but that only favored them by 1 point per 100 possessions.  Even the game itself was odd; normally an upset happens when a team shoots well from 3, but Princeton went 4-25 from deep.  It certainly helped that Arizona, who was an elite shooting team, only shot 3-16 from deep and didn’t get to the line a lot (though neither did Princeton).  Princeton also handled Missouri pretty easily in the second round before falling to Creighton.  I think the biggest thing is that I (as apparently several publications did as well) undervalued how talented Tosan Evbuomwan is.  After the tournament, he has climbed up draft boards to the point where I expect he will wind up being a second-round pick (it is worth noting I don’t have him there in my upcoming mock draft, though I think he will climb more).

 

Arkansas

I will admit that I probably would not have had Arkansas beating Illinois in the first round.  I was also floored when they beat Kansas, since I thought neither Arkansas nor Illinois had any chance against Kansas.  I thought that Arkansas was just too young and that both of their top freshmen (Anthony Black and Nick Smith) would struggle in the tournament; I also thought their lack of shooting would hurt them.  It is worth noting that Illinois was also pretty bad at shooting and that Kansas had struggled with injuries to their starting lineup and were thin after, though Arkansas deserves their credit.  While Smith struggled mightily at points in the tournament, Black rose to the occasion and made me even higher on him than I was entering the tournament.  Another freshman, Jordan Walsh, also played well and likely played himself into draft position.  I also think it’s worth noting that I was too hard on junior Ricky Council, who I expect will be drafted as well.

 

Texas

I think it is safe to say that I was not high on Texas entering this tournament.  While they had several seniors who were award winners during the season, none of them were in draft conversations, which is usually not the best indicator of success in the tournament (which is something I always found strange).  As for their potentially draftable players, they have Dillon Mitchell, a freshman who had an inconsistent year and I currently have as a second-round pick, and Tyrese Hunter, a sophomore who I have very far from being drafted.  Part of the reason I predicted them losing in the second round was due to them facing a Penn State team that was elite from deep, which didn’t happen; from there, I didn’t find it shocking that they would beat Xavier, who I thought was one of the weaker 3 seeds.  That said, I probably wouldn’t have had them making the Elite Eight, no matter how reasonable it was to imagine.

 

Gonzaga/UCLA

If everyone was healthy, I believe this might have been the most exciting matchup of the tournament.  Unfortunately, it was announced shortly before the tournament that UCLA’s Jaylen Clark would be injured.  If that were not the case, I might have had UCLA winning the entire tournament (I think I would have had them in the Final Four easily).  I ultimately had UCLA beating Gonzaga, but that was the most excruciating decision in my opinion.  Both teams faired very well in multiple aspects, but I still had no idea how the injury would impact this matchup.  Ultimately Gonzaga won, which I didn’t find surprising, but I thought it still could have gone either way.

 

 

Women’s

Throughout the history of the Women’s Tournament, there have been very few upsets throughout the tournament, with the better seeds often winning early and one of the top seeds typically winning the entire tournament.  While many have cited the fact that there are a few dominant programs (there is truth to it, but not as much as people say in my opinion), a bigger reason is because the top 4 seeds in each region play their first two games at home.  As such, I consider the biggest surprise of either tournament to be that two 1-seeds lost in the second round at home.  Further, no 1-seed made it to the Championship game, which is almost as strange.  Overall, I didn’t consider most of the other games to be too shocking in the tournament, so I am focusing on how surprising the loss of each 1-seed was, going from the last to be eliminated to the first.  With all that said, I think the games showed that each 1 seed was more mortal than expected.

 

South Carolina

Given the fact that South Carolina was among the most dominant teams I have ever seen, South Carolina felt like a safe prediction to win the tournament.  While I likely would not have ever had Iowa beating them (I had that matchup in the Final Four and predicted South Carolina would win), that was a team that I was a tad nervous about (though not over the top worried).  The way I figured Iowa would have to win would from shooting; Iowa was one of the better shooting teams in the NCAA and South Carolina struggled shooting while also not being the best defending it.  I also figured that someone from Iowa other than star Caitlin Clark would have to shoot well from behind the arc.  I can’t say I expected what happened:  Clark couldn’t hit a 3 (5-17) and the rest of the team went 2-6 from deep.  Clark attempted 31 shots while nobody else attempted more than 8, and the only other player in double digits was Monika Czinano, who scored 18 while going 6-8.  I thought South Carolina could slow her down inside, but she went 10-14 from 2.  Another shocker was that Aaliyah Boston struggled mightily; she went 2-9 from the field for 8 points and got into foul trouble early, limiting her to just 26 minutes.  South Carolina appeared in shambles throughout while trying anyone on their bench they could, but nothing worked.  While they lost, it is worth noting that it took a lot for Indiana to squeak out a 4-point victory.

 

Virginia Tech

While Virginia Tech had a loaded starting lineup, there was one thing I was worried about:  their bench was thin.  After they stopped playing Ashley Owusu upon her return from injury for some reason (they really could have used her in the Final Four), they played 6 players.  Once Taylor Soule got into foul trouble early, I knew they were in trouble, and my fears came true later in the game (if I sound biased, it is worth noting that I am a Virginia Tech fan and was hoping they would win the tournament); with about 8 minutes left in the game, I said that LSU was going to win.  At that point, Virginia Tech was missing every 3 they took (particularly Georgia Amoore, who went just 4-15 from deep), which is typically an indication of exhaustion.  Further, LSU had their way on the offensive glass by the end of the game since it looked Virginia Tech was just too tired to box out effectively; in particular, star big Elizabeth Kitley, who had an amazing game throughout, played all 40 minutes and couldn’t contain Angel Reese by the end of the game (as a sidebar, could we marvel at Reese’s athleticism to play 38 minutes and still look dominant by the end of the game?  That was quite a feat to watch).  Ultimately, Virginia Tech had an amazing year and nobody can take that away; unfortunately for them, LSU had a bit more juice.

 

Indiana

I think it’s safe to say that I was in total shock that Indiana lost in the second round.  I had Indiana making the Championship game and thought them making the Final Four was a pretty safe prediction.  Ultimately, Miami squeaked past them by just 2 points.  I think there are 3 major factors, one on defense and two on offense, all related to shot making.  On defense, they had trouble stopping Miami from 3, as they went 8-14 (57.1%), while they held opponents to just 31.0% during the season.  There weren’t a ton of 3’s shot, but ultimately a couple players from Miami went 3-4 from deep, which is tough to contain.  On offense, they struggled a tad from 3, going 5-15 (33.3%), compared to 36.9% for the season; Yarden Garzon came out, going 3-5, but the rest of the team struggled.  The biggest difference was their 2-point percent was just 43.5% in this game, down from 55.9% during the season.  While it is safe to assume that MacKenzie Holmes would experience a bit of a drop during the tournament from a scorching 69.1% from 2 (she went 10-18 for 55.6%), the bigger issue was Grace Berger.  While she wasn’t that efficient during the season from 2 (49.3%), she kept at it and Miami led her in there; she went just 5-15 from 2.  Beyond those, Indiana largely played how they did all season, but it took each of those for Miami to squeak past Indiana.  While we have to recognize how well Miami did, there’s only so much you can say about Indiana’s loss since they almost pulled it out while struggling shooting.

 

Stanford

When Stanford lost, I was a little bit surprised, especially given how talented and deep the team was.  The game itself was a bit of a slugfest, as both teams struggled from the field, especially inside the arc; this was especially weird for Stanford since they absolutely dominated inside during the season.  I believe one stat painted the clearest picture as to how Mississippi won:  Cameron Brink, Stanford’s star big, shot 5-13 from 2 in this game, after shooting 52.8% during the season.  There were reports that came out leading up to the tournament that Brink was dealing with an illness, but I didn’t expect that would make a difference in this round.  The other major difference in a game where nobody could finish inside the arc:  Stanford went just 2-7 from 3, while Mississippi went 5-11, en route to a 5-point victory.

 

 

What were some things you found surprising about the tournament?  Let me know in the comments!