How to Value Alyssa Thomas

While there are always role players that are valuable in the NBA, there have been certain players who are legends despite not being the traditional high-scoring stars.  Usually, these types of players are defensive superstars (such as Ben Wallace or Dikembe Mutombo), elite playmakers (Rajon Rondo), are able to do a variety of things while helping the IQ of a team (Andre Iguodala), or have mastered one particular skillset (Dennis Rodman with rebounding).  Occasionally there is a player who falls under several of these (with all due respect to Rondo, I think he was an overrated defender who got lucky with steals); Draymond Green is a great example of this, but even he is rarely better than the third best player on a championship level team.  Historically, these types of players are not the best on a competitive team.

In the WNBA, efficiency has also not been as much a priority as it has been in the NBA in recent years.  While there have been several players who were not efficient while being stars, including Skyler Diggins-Smith and A’ja Wilson earlier in her career, I think the epitome of this discrepancy is Arike Ogunbowale, a high-volume scorer who has been inefficient in most areas of the court.  Similarly, analytics and trends have been a bit slower to be prevalent in the WNBA than in the NBA.  As such, a player who can do a lot on both ends without scoring a lot of points might not be viewed in the same light as a player who scores a lot, even if inefficiently.  Further, while a trend I have been watching for a while is the ideology of building around a bigger player (either forward or center) who is also a good playmaker, this trend in the NBA has been ignored by most teams in the WNBA.

This brings up the interesting situation that Alyssa Thomas is in with the Connecticut Sun.  Thomas is the best player for Connecticut while being an elite defender and being in the top-10 in assists (8.1, 2^nd), rebounds (9.7, 3^rd), and steals (2.1, 2^nd) as a bigger forward.  The biggest weakness for her this year is her scoring, which has never been her greatest strength; she is averaging 15.1 PPG on just 47.4 FG% (I think part of the low efficiency is due to lack of offensive options on the team).  On top of that, Connecticut has been a top-3 team for most of the season, as they have been dominant against every team other than Las Vegas and New York.  While Connecticut fans have consistently showered Thomas in rightful praise for her ability to do a lot, she doesn’t get the same attention across the league.  This leads me to the question that spawned this post:  how should we value her in the WNBA?

When watching Thomas with either analytics or team basketball in mind, it becomes obvious that she has been Connecticut’s best player for possibly two seasons.  She is the point guard for the team and their best defender who can guard any position while consistently making the right plays.  That said, she doesn’t fill the mold of a traditional star who scores a lot.  While she has taken more shots than normal this season, that is more out of necessity than anything else, as they lost a couple top scoring options in Jonquel Jones and Courtney Williams.  In a similar way to how it might be difficult to view someone like Draymond Green as a superstar in the NBA, Thomas is not the player you would expect to be the leading scorer on a team, which might make it tough to view her in such a high regard.  That said, Thomas is one of the best defenders in the league (I’d argue best) and one of the best playmakers in the league (it’s tough to take the title away from Courtney Vandersloot, who is such a brilliant decision maker, but there’s a case to be made).

All of this brings up the debate of whether Thomas could be the MVP of the league.  Historically, the MVP has been one of the top scorers in the league, but Thomas isn’t too far off averaging a triple-double while making a Defensive Player of the Year case again.  In the All-Star voting results, she finished 4^th among forwards in the overall in the media vote, finishing behind Breanna Stewart, A’ja Wilson, and Satou Sabally (who I don’t believe has been as good as Thomas while playing for a worse team, though she is scoring a little more).  She wasn’t selected as a starter because she finished 7^th in the player vote (behind starters Stewart, Wilson, Brittney Griner, Sabally, Nneka Ogwumike, and Aliyah Boston) and 10^th in the fan vote (behind Wilson, Stewart, Griner, Boston, Sabally, Ogwumike, Elena Delle Donne, Candace Parker (who wasn’t selected), and Napheesa Collier).  It’s also worth noting that she was drafted 14^th overall in the All-Star draft and 6^th among non-starters, as she followed Courtney Vandersloot (Stewart’s teammate), Kelsey Plum (Wilson’s teammate), Sabrina Ionescu (Stewart’s teammate), Allisha Gray (who is scoring a little more, but that’s it), and Ezi Magbegor (despite her paint dominance and defensive skill, I don’t understand that selection at all).  While some players that finished ahead of her are clearly having worse seasons in my opinion (such as Boston), the media vote is what counts for the awards.  I still think that Wilson and Stewart have the edge, but it’s worth keeping a close eye on.

Ultimately, I think there are three things that could happen that could make Thomas the MVP.  The clearest is if Connecticut ended up finishing first.  Typically, the MVP of the league is the best player on the best team.  That said, Las Vegas is 3.5 games ahead of Connecticut, so that might be tougher.  The second possibility is if Thomas finishes with a triple-double for the season.  Nobody has finished an entire season with a triple-double mark, and as we saw from a historical rarity in Russell Westbrook’s MVP year in 2016-17 (when he became the second player in history to average a triple-double after Oscar Robertson), it could be possible.  That said, I don’t think it’s too likely that she pulls it off, especially since I don’t think she’s trying to do that.  The third and most likely possibility is that narratives take shape.  Connecticut is still playing well despite losing Jonquel Jones in a trade to New York, losing coach Curt Miller, and now losing Briona Jones to injury.  If they continue playing well and pass New York, that could give Thomas an edge, even while DeWanna Bonner is leading the team in scoring.  Even if she is not named MVP, Connecticut fans and hardcore WNBA fans will still recognize her value and impact on both ends of the court.