WNBA Playoff Predictions

After an exciting season with several storylines, surprises, and exciting games, the WNBA Playoffs are here!  While I am excited to watch the games, I think most people expect the first two rounds to be predictable.  While I don’t necessarily disagree with this, there are still some interesting things to watch, especially with adjustments.

In this post, I have my general analysis for each series, a prediction, and an X-Factor player who is not a star player for that team.  I defined this by someone who was not an All-Star or in a starring role for the team for the majority of the season.  This leaves some room for interpretation, especially when someone was a star recently but isn’t exactly in a starring role for a team (this comes up with a former MVP who recently changed teams and played a role that wasn’t a starring role).  I leaned more towards what their current role was when determining this.

 

 

First Round

1 Las Vegas Aces vs. 8 Chicago Sky

I have a long answer to this analysis and a short answer.  The long answer is this:  Vegas is certainly not invincible, as they only run 7 deep with Candace Parker injured and Riquna Williams away from the team following her arrest (though domestic charges were dropped against her), most of their players being guards, and 2 of them being not particularly effective on offense.  That said, they had the best offense and defense in the league and were still amazing after losing Parker.  I think that Chicago will struggle to stop Candace Parker in particular (though Elizabeth Williams will likely put up a noble effort at times), though Chicago’s below average defense will also likely have trouble against their All-Star guard tandem of Chelsea Plum/Chelsea Gray/Jackie Young.  Chicago’s best bets to win is to get multiple bigs/wings in foul trouble (easier said than done), have bigs and wings that can attack (they don’t have that), or drill a lot of 3’s to try to outpace Vegas.  The good news is that Chicago is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the league.  The bad news is that they don’t shoot them much; their 3 best shooters (Courtney Williams, Kahleah Copper, and Marina Mabrey) all favor the 2 instead and are inefficient in the range.  The short answer is this:  seriously?  This is a section we need to have?  Isn’t it obvious?

X-Factor:  Something that isn’t getting enough attention is that Chicago does have one interesting advantage in their favor:  with Vegas’ current lack of depth, they only have 2 bigs (Candace Parker and Kiah Stokes) and 1 wing (Alysha Clark).  This is so important because I think that a wing is best to limit two of their more potent offensive weapons, Kahleah Copper and Marina Mabrey.  While they have favored starting both bigs, I think it is in Vegas’ best interest to start Clark in this matchup and put her on Copper, who is Chicago’s definitive first option.  Clark’s addition would also give them a nice shooting element in the lineup, which would open the floor even more for Parker.  The risk with this is that this leaves Stokes and Kierstan Bell as their two reliable bench offense, neither of whom are effective offensive players.  I think Vegas can take a chance with putting Young on Mabrey because she doesn’t have good shot selection, but I think there is more flexibility with Clark in the game.

Prediction:  Las Vegas, 2-0

 

2 New York Liberty vs. 7 Washington Mystics

Going into the season, I was high on Washington, and it looked legit when Elena Delle Donne was healthy, as they were 8-6 when she played prior to her injury and 13-10 when she played overall.  The problem is that they were 6-11 without her.  While Brittney Sykes did her best to keep them in it (I didn’t think she could replicate her breakout year last year, but she surpassed it), Washington had so many injuries that it should be celebrated that they made the playoffs.  On the other hand, New York has been a force all season, looking even better in the second half.  Their starting/closing lineup is amazing, and their depth is great too.  While Washington has some good defenders, including Sykes, Natasha Cloud, and Delle Donne, I’m not sure how they stop a lineup that includes Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, Courtney Vandersloot, Jonquel Jones, and Betnijah Laney multiple times in a series.  The biggest issue for Washington is that I think New York is bigger than them while clearly being better at shooting and offense.  I think this might be the worst matchup for Washington, though they could end up winning a game.

X-Factor:  I’m not sure who is the better option to defend Elena Della Donne between Jonquel Jones and Breanna Stewart.  I’m guessing that New York will go with Stewart, but I would probably go with Jones instead.  While Jones was an MVP in Connecticut, she struggled to create a role for herself in New York until she embraced a complimentary role that involved a lot of defense and playing center.  That said, Washington’s bigs are not much bigger than Stewart and aren’t particularly strong offensively.  Stewart is the best offensive player on New York, so having Jones guarding Delle Donne will give Stewart a break on that end to conserve energy (though Stewart is an excellent defender).  Jones’ physicality and strength will make Delle Donne not have an easy time.  I think Delle Donne will still go off in one game because she is such a dominant force, but I think that is the easiest path to victory for New York

Prediction:  New York, 2-1

 

3 Connecticut Suns vs. 6 Minnesota Lynx

I find this to be an interesting combo of teams facing off, though for the fact of how their seasons were rather than the actual matchup.  Connecticut was in a new era to start the year, as they lost superstar Jonquel Jones, had a new coach in Stephanie White, and a new point guard.  They had to change their team and style again after star Brionna Jones was declared out for the remainder of the season due to injury, which allowed Alyssa Thomas to thrive as a point guard and was when I thought White really thrived with her play calling and lineup decisions (I was underwhelmed prior to that).  As for Minnesota, this was their first year without Sylvia Fowles on the team and their first Claire Duwelius as their GM; the result was a bit of inconsistency, as they went 7-5 in games decided by 5 or fewer points, 15-7 in games decided by fewer than 10 points, and 4-14 in games decided by 10 or more points.  As expected, winning close games and losing blowouts did not fare well for their analytic numbers, as they were also near the bottom of the league in both offense and defense, as they were with shooting splits.  While Connecticut is vulnerable (especially without Brionna Jones), I think it will be difficult to stop Thomas due to her playmaking abilities, where she can truly exploit a weak defense on the perimeter.  While Napheesa Collier was an All-Star and Diamond Miller had her moments (and look like they could be promising in the future), inefficient rookies like Miller don’t bode well in the playoffs, and Collier could struggle with Thomas on her.  Still, Connecticut always seems to blow one of these games…but maybe that was a thing of the past?

X-Factor:  I think this could be a really big series for Tiffany Hayes, especially if the ball is in her hands a decent amount.  I thought that she would be their end of game lead scorer due to her efficiency and shot making ability, but she has been more of a complimentary piece for Connecticut this season.  While she has done well with the role, Minnesota’s guards are not particularly good defensively.  While their better defenders have to focus on Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, Minnesota might not have a great answer if Hayes takes advantage of the opportunity.

Prediction:  Connecticut, 2-1

 

4 Dallas Wings vs. 5 Atlanta Dream

This series could end up being the most exciting matchup due to how fast both teams play on offense.  This series might also be the most entertaining if I were doing live reactions to the first round, as this series will likely infuriate me.  In this matchup, we have a great offense and bad defense in Dallas facing off against an average defense but bad offense in Atlanta…what kind of torturous plans were used here?  It’s interesting that Dallas has an amazing offense since they’re so inefficient from 3 yet so efficient from 2 (largely due to players like Teaira McCowan, Kalani Brown, and Natasha Howard shooting really well from there).  While Arike Ogunbowale gets the attention as their top scorer (despite at a bit of an erratic and inconsistent clip), Setou Sabally was healthy this year and looked to me like an MVP candidate.  It’s also worth noting that Howard was perfect for them and made their part of the Jonquel Jones trade look like a massive victory.  Atlanta is weird offensively since the only players on that team who appear to not be allergic to shoot the ball are Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray, and Cheyenne Parker, though Howard and Gray appeared to fade a bit at the end of the year (likely due to the workload).  I could see Atlanta striking lightning during one game, but I just don’t think they’re good enough to win twice in a series.

X-Factor:  Despite not being efficient at all from 2, Atlanta takes a lot from that range.  While Dallas’ guards are not particularly good defensively, their frontcourt of Natasha Howard, Setou Sabally, and Teaira McCowan is good overall.  While I consider Howard and Sabally to be at the minimum very good, McCowan is the weakest out of the 3 (though she is good defensively), but this could be her time to shine on that end.  If Atlanta is going to target the 2’s, I would suggest going right at her as much as possible, especially in the pick and roll with a mismatch (if one of the guards isn’t available to target); while it’s not a clear recipe for success, it’s the best of the 3 to have to face.  For Dallas, the goal is to have them shoot more 3’s, which would fall onto Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray (as they are their two best offensive weapons); this is ideal because their jumpers haven’t been consistent late in the season, as the jumper is often the first to go when tired.

Prediction:  Dallas, 2-1

 

 

Semifinals

1 Las Vegas Aces vs. 4 Dallas Wings

I kind of hope we get this series since it would mean the two teams that play the fastest on offense would be facing off.  That said, I think that Vegas has answers for everything that Dallas could throw at them.  I expect that Vegas would have A’ja Wilson on Satou Sabally, which is the biggest emphasis in my opinion (even though most would say it should be Arike Ogunbowale).  I could see them either putting Chelsea Gray or Jackie Young on Ogunbowale, which would make it at least a little more difficult around the perimeter.  While that leaves an opening for Natasha Howard, if you put a guard on her and start Kiah Stokes, you could get away with Stokes shifting over when she comes in (Howard isn’t a particularly good shooter, so I’m not worried about her being open).  I previously mentioned that Dallas has some weak defensive guards; imagine having them try to guard a combo of Kelsey Plum/Gray/Young.  While Howard could guard one of them (I would probably put her on Gray due to Gray’s size), that still leaves 2 All-Stars who can torch Dallas.  The biggest thing that would help Dallas win would be getting to the line.  While they do get to the line a lot, one thing that is worth noting is that Ogunbowale barely gets there despite taking a lot of 2’s.

X-Factor:  At this point, I am starting to regret the rules I made here by not including current star players here (while I made an exception for Jonquel Jones given her role this year with New York, I don’t think I could make one for Chelsea Gray).  That said, Kia Stokes could have a massive impact in this series.  She and A’ja Wilson will have a difficult responsibility in guarding an efficient offensive player while also dropping back to defend the paint when someone blows by.  Given Dallas’ lineup, the best option would likely be to have Stokes guard Teaira McCowen (though I would love to see her on Natasha Howard).  I expect she’ll have to help on both Howard and Arike Ogunbowale at points as they drive inside the arc, which is something I think she can do.

Prediction:  Vegas, 3-0

 

2 New York Liberty vs. 3 Connecticut Suns

I’ll cut to the chase on this matchup:  I really don’t love Connecticut’s chances here.  While Connecticut’s offense was good, there were points where it sputtered, especially late in games; I don’t see them being able to have a ton of success against a great defensive team in New York, especially not with their tendencies to shot 2’s and having to meet good size with Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones.  Even if they do opt to shoot a lot of 3’s and space the floor, it’s worth noting that DeWanna Bonner would take many of those, but she is an inconsistent shooter.  Even if Connecticut can slow Stewart and Jones on offense by playing Bonner and Alyssa Thomas on them, I don’t know how Connecticut can stop the guard tandem of Sabrina Ionescu and Courtney Vandersloot, especially given the basketball IQ each of them have.  Both of them do have pretty deep teams, though I think that New York’s overall roster is more built to play a perimeter-oriented game; while they certainly are better with that than they were last season, when they were beat at that by Vegas in the Finals, I still don’t think they’ll be able to keep up.

X-Factor:  I think Connecticut’s best bet is to force Breanna Stewart into foul trouble, something they had success with in earlier matchups.  If they do that, New York might be forced to play Kayla Thornton more minutes for size purposes.  While she was a solid defender for them, her minutes were reduced due to struggling from 3, which accounted for an increase in her shot selection.  If she has to play big minutes, Connecticut will likely throw their weakest defender on her; she will need to take advantage of that for New York to keep up in those minutes.

Prediction:  New York, 3-1

 

 

Finals

1 Las Vegas Aces vs. 2 New York Liberty

While we would have the Finals matchup most people are hoping for, I don’t think this is going to be as exciting as billed.  While it’s entirely possible that Vegas ends up winning, I just think that the lack of depth for Vegas and how well New York has played to finish the year will make it too difficult to slow them down.  While Vegas plays fast and takes a lot of 3’s, I expect New York’s offense will do a massive number on their defense and wear them down a bit, especially on their guards, who would have to worry about both Sabrina Ionescu and Courtney Vandersloot, which makes me wonder if their endurance can last.  Further, New York is a great shooting team all-around (though Vandersloot struggled this year from 3, she is still someone you can’t leave open anywhere due to her decision making ability and IQ).  This will allow New York to really open the floor and paint if they so choose to exploit this, putting more pressure on Vegas.  Something else worth noting is that the individual matchups could be interesting from projected starting lineups.  They could have something along the lines of Ionescu and Chelsea Gray, Vandersloot and Kelsey Plum, Betnijah Laney and Jackie Young, and some combination of Breanna Stewart/Jonquel Jones and A’ja Wilson/Kia Stokes (though I would play Alysha Clark instead of Stokes) facing off.  That will be a test for New York on offense, but Stokes is a weak enough offensive player that they could realistically put anyone on her as long as they account for a way to limit rebounds (though I would put Stewart on her on several possessions to give her a bit of a break, unless Vegas realizes that and has Stokes being physical with boxing out and posting up; I would do this with Stokes even if she wasn’t going to shoot).  Sure, Vegas could win, but I just don’t see it at this time.

X-Factor:  Even though she wasn’t a firm piece in the rotation this year, I think Stephanie Dolson could play an interesting role in this series.  Assuming Kiah Stokes starts for Vegas and gets matched up on Jonquel Jones, she won’t have an easy time due to Jones’ combination of athleticism, shooting ability, and finishing ability, but I think she could limit her a bit inside the 3-point line, which is where Jones thrives.  Enter Dolson, who spends a lot of time behind the arc.  Those minutes would make it tougher for Stokes because Dolson is too good a shooter to leave open, providing more space for New York’s stars.

Prediction:  New York, 3-1

 

 

Who do you think will win the Finals?  What matchups are you looking forward to?  Let me know in the comments!