2023-24 NBA Season Predictions

After an offseason with an interesting combination of stories, chaos, and intrigue (some of which isn’t even resolved yet) paired with an enthralling WNBA season during the offseason, the NBA season is here!  As I do with most seasons (which I think is kind of standard for anyone covering anything with a sports league), I have my predictions for the standings, championship, and awards, as well as analysis on each team.

In most seasons, there is a sense that there are a couple teams that are better than everyone, or even several obvious teams that could make the playoffs.  This is not one of those years.  While I think the top 3 teams are most likely (2 in the East, 1 in the West), even those teams have their weaknesses.  My champion prediction represents the team that I feel most confident about with their weaknesses.  In the East, I think teams 3-5 will make the playoffs (mainly since I don’t know what else to do with Philadelphia and feel like I can’t drop them out yet) and that teams 6-12 will at least try to.  In the West, I feel like it’s a tossup for teams 2-11 (yes, the team I am predicting finishing 2^nd can legitimately miss the Play-In), while team 12 is actively trying to win (possibly ill-advised) and team 13 would be a playoff team in most years.  In short, there’s a ton of parity, so this could be an interesting season.

 

Standings

East

1.       Boston Celtics

2.       Milwaukee Bucks

3.       Cleveland Cavaliers

4.       New York Knicks

5.       Philadelphia 76ers

6.       Indiana Pacers

7.       Miami Heat

8.       Atlanta Hawks

9.       Orlando Magic

10.   Brooklyn Nets

11.   Toronto Raptors

12.   Chicago Bulls

13.   Charlotte Hornets

14.   Detroit Pistons

15.   Washington Wizards

West

1.       Denver Nuggets

2.       Oklahoma City Thunder

3.       Los Angeles Lakers

4.       Phoenix Suns

5.       Sacramento Kings

6.       Golden State Warriors

7.       Memphis Grizzlies

8.       Los Angeles Clippers

9.       Dallas Mavericks

10.   Minnesota Timberwolves

11.   New Orleans Pelicans

12.   Houston Rockets

13.   Utah Jazz

14.   San Antonio Spurs

15.   Portland Trail Blazers

 

Championship:  Denver beats Boston (I don’t know how many games at this point; pick any number out of a hat and run with it)

 

Award Predictions

There really isn’t a point in predicting awards at this point, but it can be fun to do.  Here are my finalists as of now.  Don’t expect that they will remain my finalists at the end of the season.

MVP

1.       Nikola Jokic, DEN

2.       Jayson Tatum, BOS

3.       Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC

4.       Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL

5.       Damian Lillard, MIL

As of now, I expect it will be either Jokic or Tatum.  Already there are people questioning whether the wrong player was selected last year and if Jokic should have been MVP, which often helps out a player’s case the next year.  If Boston ends up with the most wins in the NBA, I expect Tatum will end up getting it.  If OKC ends up being as good as I expect, don’t be shocked if Shai ends up high in the voting.  While having 2 finalists from the same team is more of a baseball thing, I could see it in Milwaukee if they compliment each other so well and if the expected candidates’ teams end up struggling.

Some other players to watch include (in no particular order) Devin Booker, Joel Embiid, Luka Doncic, Donovan Mitchell, Jalen Brunson, De’Aaron Fox, Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Jaylen Brown, Anthony Edwards, and Tyrese Haliburton.

 

Rookie of the Year

1.       Victor Wembenyama, SAS

2.       Scoot Henderson, POR

3.       Chet Holmgren, OKC

First off, yes, Holmgren is eligible because he didn’t play a game last year.  Historically, the winner of this award is someone who puts up high numbers on a bad team, which makes Wembenyama and Henderson the natural options for this award.  That said, key players for competitive teams have also faired well in the last 5 years or so, which is why Holmgren has a good shot.  I will say though that I think Wembenyama will win due to the hype, but I think Holmgren will be better and Henderson will put up a lot more points.

Some other possibilities include (in no particular order) Brandon Miller, Bilal Coulibaly, Jarace Walker, Keyonte George, Ausar Thompson, Anthony Black, Kris Murray, Olivier-Maxence Prosper, and Jordan Hawkins.

 

Defensive Player of the Year

1.       Evan Mobley, CLE

2.       Bam Adebayo, MIA

3.       Myles Turner, IND

There are a few players that make sense for the award this season, but Mobley was a finalist in his second season while not having an exceptional defensive season.  I also feel like it’s only a matter of time before Bam ends up being a finalist.  The other one I would keep in mind is Turner; he’s an elite shot blocker who will likely finally play the right amount of games since Indiana should be better.

Other possibilities include (in no particular order) include Jaren Jackson, Anthony Davis, Rudy Gobert, Herb Jones, Walker Kessler, Brook Lopez, Jaden McDaniels, OG Anunoby, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, and Aaron Gordon.

 

Sixth Man of the Year

1.       Malik Monk

2.       Bobby Portis

3.       Norm Powell

The caveat that I always give with this award is that I often don’t know who will start or come of the bench.  There have been multiple seasons where I predicted a player to win the award who ended up starting too many games (in some cases I have even predicted players who ended up being starters).  That said, it’s typically the top scoring bench players who get the vote (though there’s sometimes a finalist who is a do-it-all kind of player).  Here’s 3; take your pick.

Other possibilities (assuming they’re eligible) include (in no particular order) Immanuel Quickley, Kyle Anderson, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Bruce Brown, De’Anthony Melton, Rui Hachimura, Christian Braun, Caris LeVert, Josh Hart, Cam Thomas, Ziaire Williams, and Cole Anthony.  While some would question where any Boston player is, I don’t believe any key ones will play enough games off the bench.

 

Most Improved Players

1.       Evan Mobley

2.       Obi Toppin

3.       Tyrese Maxey

Take my predictions here with a grain of salt, as I often predicted players that ended up playing worse until the last year or two (the worst one came in 2018-19 pre-blog when I predicted it would be a close race with Gary Harris edging out Jaylen Brown, and both players regressed in a major way that season; y’all would have had fun with that).  That said, it’s typically either a third-year player, a player who is in a new system or has new opportunities, or a player who played well in the second half of the season and does the same, but a bunch of people didn’t notice it the year prior (I could see Mikal Bridges or Austin Reaves getting votes due to that).  While there are several players that are possible, I think Mobley will make a big jump on both ends to the court this year, Toppin should have more opportunities in a cleaner fit for him in Indiana, and Maxey should get a lot of chances as long as James Harden isn’t playing.

Other possibilities include (in no particular order) Mikal Bridges, Franz Wagner, Jalen Green, Cade Cunningham, R.J. Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Markelle Fultz, Cam Johnson, Jalen Johnson, Ziaire Williams, Herb Jones, Austin Reaves, Quentin Grimes, Josh Giddey, Duncan Robinson, Patrick Williams, and Jabari Smith (while second year players often don’t win, having a good point guard in Fred VanVleet could make it possible for him).

 

Coach of the Year

1.       Mark Daigneault, OKC

2.       Michael Malone, DEN

3.       J. B. Bickerstaff, CLE

While it is ridiculous to predict most awards prior to the season, I think it is outright dumb to predict this award since it is usually a combination of rewarding teams that are surprising or teams with a good record.  As such, I don’t think there’s much to say other than the fact that my predictions reflect this, though it is illogical to think I could predict who I’d be surprised by.

Other possibilities include (in no particular order) include Darvin Ham, Frank Vogel, Joe Mazula, Rick Carlisle, Erik Spoelstra, Tom Thibodeau, and Adrian Griffin.

Analysis

This is my favorite part of the post, though I understand it’s most people’s least favorite.  As such, we each made a compromise:  it’s still in here, but it’s at the bottom.

East

1:  Boston Celtics

Even after making multiple moves during the offseason, I don’t think we can deny that this team is so good.  Jayson Tatum is an all-around superstar who has a legitimate case to be named MVP; he’s also almost always healthy.  Despite his struggles with the ball in his hand, he is a star player who can score and defend at such a rate that justifies the massive contract he just signed.  Despite having a tough playoffs, Jrue Holiday is still a great defender who has a lot of skill as a scorer and playmaker on offense.  I’m not in love with the Kristaps Porzingis trade; while he is a solid rim protector with a smooth jump shot and amazing offensive game, he has never proven to be healthy or about winning (though part of that comes down to the fact that the only competitive team he has played on starred Luka Doncic, who isn’t the easiest to play with if you ever want the ball for more than 3 seconds).  Beyond them, they have Derrick White (a nice defensive combo guard who had his best season on both ends last year), Al Horford (a veteran big who is still effective defensively and has a nice 3), Sam Hauser (a wing with a beautiful shot), Payton Pritchard (a guard who plays hard and has a great jumper), Luke Kornet (a solid backup big, though he needs to quit it with the “Kornet Contest” and start closing out on people if needed), Oshae Brissett (a solid combo forward), and Jordan Walsh (a great defensive wing who I think can shoot better now that he’s out of an archaic system.  While I imagine most would focus on the loss of their outspoken tough guys in Marcus Smart and Robert Williams or their coaching struggles in the playoffs last year, I think both are overstated; I thought Smart and Williams had worn their welcome a bit and it was time to go, and I think that naturally Mazula would make a bit of a jump due to being a second year coach.  The thing I am worried about is their will to win and interest in it.  I have brought it up to some people last season and they found it ridiculous, but they often cared more about their own stats or not doing the dirty work during games, making me wonder if the players and coaches even cared about winning; the fact that they were able to make it as far as they did while often playing with no sense of urgency really shows how talented the team is.

X-Factor:  After falling out of the rotation at points last season due to guard depth, Payton Pritchard should have a much more sizeable role off the bench this year.  Pritchard has a great jumper, which will provide value with any rotation he plays with, especially given how much Joe Mazula likes offense and having the team shoot 3’s.  He proved to be a good player previously, and I think the fact that Derrick White and Jrue Holiday are the only ones ahead of him will help his cause.

Best Case Scenario:   Porzingis buys in and everything that plagued Boston in the playoffs last year is resolved, resulting in them winning the Championship.

Worst Case Scenario:  The team continues to be lax about winning, Joe Mazula continues too cool for school and won’t make changes, Porzingis doesn’t buy into the role, nobody is willing to come off the bench, and nobody takes a leadership role, resulting on them being a 4-6 seed and being swept in the first round while casting doubt about their future.

 

2:  Milwaukee Bucks

Lose in Eastern Conference Finals to Boston

I originally had them 1^st, but changed it last minute after Terry Stotts resigned (I think a first time head coach could benefit from having an experienced coach, which Adrian Griffin now loses).  That said, I really like the fit of Damian Lillard with this team; he is a superstar who is one of the greatest shooters and scorers of all time, with his clutch ability fulfilling a massive need.  He joins superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is one of the best players in the league whose only weakness is shooting.  I expect this will also make life easier for Khris Middleton, a great scorer who will likely have a lot less attention on him.  The rest of the team is made up by Brooks Lopez (a great shooter and better defender, though he is getting older), Malik Beasley (an amazing shooter though rough defender), Bobby Portis (an awesome scoring big off the bench), Pat Connaughton (an insane athletic guards who is efficient), Cam Payne (an aggressive scoring backup guard who is improving as a playmaker), Jae Crowder (a nice defensive forward looking to rebound from a tough season), MarJon Beauchamp (a talented athlete and aggressive player with defensive upside), and Andre Jackson (a rookie who can do a bit of everything except shoot).  My one major question is about how their defense will work.  I question how much Antetokounmpo can roam and Lopez can drop back without Jrue Holiday out there, which could cause them to struggle at points on that end.  Still, I expect they’ll be great.

X-Factor:  While there are rumors that Malik Beasley would be the starter, to say I was puzzled is an understatement.  While a great offensive option, pairing him defensively with Damian Lillard might be a bit of a nightmare.  He needs to improve to even a league-average defender, otherwise their backcourt defense will be a nightmare.

Best Case Scenario:  The pairing of Lillard and Antetokounmpo is amazing and father time holds off injuries to their core for a season, resulting in them easily winning the championship.

Worst Case Scenario:  The fit doesn’t work between Lillard and Antetokounmpo, which, paired with injuries, results in another first round exit in the playoffs.

 

3:  Cleveland Cavaliers

Lose in 2^nd round to Milwaukee

I really love this Cleveland team, though it is a bit of a must-win season due to contract situations.  They still have Donovan Mitchell, who is coming off an All-NBA season which was his best year yet.  I expect that Evan Mobley will make a massive jump; he already had an amazing defensive year and is a nice finisher.  They have a couple other All-Stars in Darius Garland (a talented scoring guard who has also developed into a skilled playmaker) and Jarrett Allen (a great finisher and defensive big who pairs so well with the other players on this team, though he is injured to start the year).  While they’re all pretty young and fit so well together, contract extensions are going to start playing a role in what can be done, especially since there are questions if Mitchell will resign, especially since there are limitations regarding extensions to Mobley given Mitchell and Garland’s contracts (long story short, there are limits on the number of guys that can be on a team signed to maximum rookie extensions).  They also have several nice role players, including Max Strus (an active wing with a nice jumper), Caris LeVert (a high volume wing/guard, though I’m not as high on him due to a lack of efficiency), Isaac Okoro (a great defensive wing who needs to be more willing to shoot open shots), Georges Niang (a bigger forward with an excellent jumper), and Dean Wade (a big with a smooth jumper and some rebounding ability).  I think the biggest thing to keep in mind with them is how Ricky Rubio’s absence will impact them (he stepped away from basketball for mental health reasons); I thought that he would be a solid backup and crucial veteran leader if nothing else.

X-Factor:  While I expect Max Strus will start because they will likely want to improve their offense, I love Strus coming off the bench and favoring Isaac Okoro in the starting lineup.  Cleveland had the best defense in the league in part due to coaching (J. B. Bickerstaff has done well with this team) and schemes, but also in part because there were very few weak links.  The issue with starting Okoro is that he is often hesitant to shoot even when open, which clogs the floor on offense.  While Strus makes sense to bring them to another level offensively, I think Okoro would work well if he was willing to shoot more open 3’s and hit them at a decent rate.

Best Case Scenario:  They end up with the top seed as Boston and Milwaukee don’t take the regular season as seriously and, riding on a great defense and improved offense, they make it to the NBA Finals and pull off the win.

Worst Case Scenario:  Their improvement in offense doesn’t make up for their downgrades in defense, and the team is a bit too young to end up competing.  I don’t see them being lower than the 9 or 10 seed, but that would be the disaster case while also dealing with Mitchell refusing an extension.

 

4:  New York Knicks

Lose in 2^nd round to Boston

Last season, New York was a 5 seed and made it to the second round, and I don’t think that was a fluke.  Tom Thibodeau hasn’t been the right fit in every situation or with all players, but he has been a slam dunk perfect fit with New York and their roster.  I was excited about the Jalen Brunson fit on this team, and it has been the perfect fit given his scoring ability and his ease at controlling the game on offense, two things that they desperately needed.  As much as Julius Randle drives me crazy with his shot selection at times, he is a skilled shooter and scorer with a great handle as a forward.  They also have R.J. Barrett, who is an aggressive scorer, though he needs to improve his efficiency and shot selection if he wants to be the best player he can be.  Beyond that, they have Immanuel Quickley (an aggressive scoring guard who was runner up for Sixth Man of the Year last year), Quentin Grimes (a 3-and-D wing who is rapidly developing into a key player), Josh Hart (a nice defensive and rebounding guard who shot well in New York), Mitchell Robinson (a great finisher and defensive big), Donte DiVincenzo (a versatile and efficient combo guard), Isaiah Hartenstein (a versatile backup big), and Jericho Sims (an athletic strong finisher).  I’m not sure what their ceiling is, but I expect they will be a very good team this year.

X-Factor:  Given the shooting inconsistencies that plague many of their starters, Quentin Grimes is the perfect wing starter for them.  He is a very good defender and excellent shooter; after Thibodeau didn’t appear to trust him at first, he has found a place in the rotation.  With their other starters needing the ball or not being good shooters, he is great for spacing the floor and might have an even better season this year.

Best Case Scenario:  More of the same from last year, but better:  they end up sneaking into a top-2 seed and have a chance to win the championship.

Worst Case Scenario:  They struggle and end up being a lower seed in the Play-In tournament after Randle and Barrett have atrocious shot selection.

 

5:  Philadelphia 76ers

Lose in 1^st round to New York

I have no idea what is going to happen with this team considering that the James Harden situation has gotten messy.  At this point, I have no idea what is going to happen, so I can only imagine how this will sit with the rest of the team, especially their superstar, Joel Embiid.  Embiid is a dominant force on both ends who has led the league in scoring each of the last two seasons.  I could also see Tyrese Maxey making a big jump by filling into the role of point guard, especially if Harden is not going to end up playing.  They also have Tobias Harris (a forward who will get to showcase a lot more of his game he showed in the past than just the shooting he’s been limited to showing since getting to Philadelphia), P.J. Tucker (a great defender who was a massive liability offensively last season), De’Anthony Melton (an amazing defensive guard who also has a nice jumper), Danuel House (a solid 3-and-D wing), Pat Beverley (an aggressive guard on defense, though I’m not as high on him since I think he hurts his team with his fouls), Paul Reed, a solid backup big, and Kelly Oubre (an athletic forward who is aggressive with his shot).  They did just hire Nick Nurse, who is a better coach than Doc Rivers, but I don’t think Nurse is a good offensive coach, which could hurt them a bit, especially if they don’t know what to do with Tucker.  With all of this, it is critical that they perform well and not appear incompetent to make sure Embiid doesn’t request a trade (they’re not off to a good start).

X-Factor:  P.J. Tucker is an awesome physical defender and was known as a 3-and-D forward prior to last season, but he was horrible offensively last year.  He seemed allergic to taking any shots and was so bad that I honestly thought that Philadelphia was better without him on the court for most of the season.  I would say that he needs to at least take open shots to remain on the court, but I don’t expect them to take him out, even with a new coach.

Best Case Scenario:  Harden comes back, Embiid is a superstar again, and several players are amazing, which results in a championship.

Worst Case Scenario:  The Harden situation is a flop and they end up being a lower seed (or Play-In team even), they end up losing quickly in the playoffs, and Embiid is so discouraged by the situation that he requests a trade.

 

6:  Indiana Pacers

Lose in 1^st round to Cleveland

I’m really high on Indiana and think they are ready to make a jump.  While there are multiple teams that are more likely to win in the playoffs, I think Indiana is going to try very hard in the regular season.  Tyrese Haliburton is a legitimate star point guard who can create his own shots and make others better with ease.  After years of speculating where he would to be traded to, Myles Turner is now the perfect fit with this team as a rim protector, finisher, shooter, and screen shooter.  They have so much talent that I could see contributing at some point this year, including Bennedict Mathurin (an athletic scoring 2-guard), Buddy Hield (one of the best sharpshooters in history; note that there are rumors of him being traded), Bruce Brown (a versatile forward on both ends who can do a lot of everything), Andrew Nembhard (a steady combo guard who can do a lot at both guard positions and appears to be smart beyond his years), Obi Toppin (an athletic forward who should fit well with this team in transition), Jarace Walker (an athletic forward who is willing to do whatever it takes to win), Aaron Nesmith (a great shooter who is a great athlete), T.J. McConnel (a steady point guard), Jordan Nwora (an aggressive scorer with a nice shot), Isaiah Jackson (an athletic big with upside), and Jalen Smith (a big with a smooth jumper).  I think they’ll go fast and focus on offense, which could have its downside, but I think they will still be competitive.

X-Factor:  Obi Toppin is going to be a perfect fit with this team on offense.  He is an amazing athlete who is a great finisher and solid shooter.  He is going to be a great finisher in transition with this rotation (imagine Tyrese Haliburton having Toppin and Bennedict Mathurin to pass to ahead).  He isn’t the best defender though and there is a lot of competition at the forward positions, so I think it’ll be interesting to see how he goes.

Best Case Scenario:  They sneak into a top-4 seed and end up in the second round.

Worst Case Scenario:  They miss the Play-In and have multiple players regress a bit, most notably Haliburton.

 

7:  Miami Heat

Lose in 1^st round to Milwaukee (why do we keep ending up with them in the playoffs?)

Opinions on Miami have been all over the place; I’d be shocked if they miss the Play-In or playoffs outright, though I could also see them cracking the top-6 (I’m higher on Indiana for the regular season).  The difficult thing to predict with them is that I am genuinely not certain that Miami cares at all about the regular season (over the last 4 seasons, they were in the top-4 once when they were the 1-seed).  They do have the best coach in the NBA in Erik Spoelstra, so you can never rule them out.  Jimmy Butler is an absolutely amazing 2-way player who tends to miss some games during the season, but he is even better during the playoffs.  Bam Adebayo is one of the best defensive players in the game, and while there have been criticisms about his lack of aggression at times, he has slowly taken more shots; he’s also a great passer for a big man.  While most people act like Tyler Herro had a bad year last season, he scored at the highest efficiency of his career and is still an amazing scorer; while he struggled defensively, I expect he’ll be out in full force this year after being in trade rumors.  They also have some established players in Caleb Martin (a nice shooter and underrated defender who broke out during last year’s playoffs), Josh Richardson (a nice 3-and-D wing/guard who has really embrace this role in his last couple stops), Duncan Robinson (who I think will improve after rediscovering his shot in the playoffs), Kyle Lowry (an aging guard who can still shoot and run the offense), Haywood Highsmith (a forward who has developed a nice jumper), Thomas Bryant (a solid offensive backup big), and Kevin Love (a nice shooter and rebounder).  As for their players who didn’t play much last year or are new players (which Miami always seems to capitalize on), take your choice of the non-2-Way options of Nikola Jovic, Jaime Jaquez, Orlando Robinson, and Cole Swider.  I have no idea what they’ll do in the regular season, but I expect that they won’t be an easy out in the playoffs no matter what happens.

X-Factor:  I genuinely have no idea what their starting lineup outside of Jimmy butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro would be.  I believe that Caleb Martin makes a lot of sense there due to his 2-way ability, but I think their best bet would be to play another wing instead of Kyle Lowry unless a rookie proves themselves a worthy fit.  Josh Richardson is the best bet due to his ability at both ends and a change in focus after wanting the ball in his hands more at his previous stops in Boston, Dallas, Philadelphia, and the first time in Miami.  Will he revert back to this?  If he does, I think that they need to remove him from the starting lineup and try something else that might not be their best lineup.

Best Case Scenario:  They make it back to the Finals and win.  Doesn’t matter what seed, they could be the 10 seed going into the Play-In and it would work.

Worst Case Scenario:  They manage to lose in the Play-In.  I don’t expect they will fall lower than the 10 seed, but they’re not a lock to make the playoffs when having to go through the Play-In.

 

8:  Atlanta Hawks

Lose in 1^st round to Boston

It should be noted that I have made it no secret that I am not as high on Trae Young as a winning player because I believe that nobody has ever held him accountable for prioritizing winning over individual stats (Atlanta especially has done a poor job with this).  That said, he is an aggressive scorer, a good shooter (though he has poor shot selection), a great passer, and now has the best coach he has ever had in Quin Snyder.  They have Dejounte Murray back; while I’m not sure that the fit between him and Young will work, I am very high on him due to his combination of offensive aggressiveness, playmaking ability, and defense on guards.  They have some other nice players as well, including Bogdan Bogdanovic (an awesome wing shooter and scorer who might have some playmaking potential if Young will give up the ball), Clint Capela (an awesome lob catcher and paint defender), De’Andre Hunter (a solid combo forward who still has a lot to prove on both ends), Saddiq Bey (a wing with a pretty jumper), Onyeka Okongwu (a young guy who reminds me a lot of Bam Adebayo with his skillset), Jalen Johnson (an athletic young forward who I expect will slide into the starting lineup), AJ Griffin (an amazing shooting wing who is great off the ball), and Kobe Bufkin (a guard with nice size and a pretty shot).  It’s possible that they end up higher than this, but I don’t trust how Atlanta has operated over the last few years.  One that would be interesting to watch is if they keep Trae Young if they struggle; if they move him, it would be a massive shift in playing style.

X-Factor:  I’m sure that you all remember all the hype that surrounded Jalen Johnson prior to being drafted…ok, he was a 5-star recruit entering college who had a tough year at Duke prior to falling to the 20^th pick in the draft.  That said, with John Collins gone, I think that he makes the most sense to slide into the starting role given his size and defensive ability.  My only fear is that the Hawks try to put him in a role where they have him doing what they did with John Collins and have him chill in the corner since Johnson hasn’t been a good shooter.

Best Case Scenario:  Snyder fixes the team, the Young/Murray combo works, and their young players take a step forward to give them a higher seed and help them go far in the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario:  The same kind of stuff happens, but worse:  they end up missing the playoffs, their offense is pretty bad, and they opt to give up on Young, bringing into questions regarding their future.

 

9:  Orlando Magic

Lose in Play-In to Atlanta

While Orlando is still pretty young, it is possible that they make a bit of a jump.  They have a nice big 3 that includes Paolo Banchero (an amazing scorer who has a great body and I expect will be more efficient this year), Franz Wagner (a skilled all-around forward who could make a big jump this season), and Wendell Carter Jr. (an awesome shooting and finishing big who looks like he will be a nice defender as well).  They also have a collection of talent that looks good with both young and older players, including Markelle Fultz (who has become a great point guard who is steady, though he has nice upside as well), Cole Anthony (a score-first guard who is improving with his efficiency), Anthony Black (a rookie point guard with amazing size and playmaking ability who should be better in the NBA while playing with an offense that isn’t archaic), Joe Ingles (a great shooter and playmaker who can also provide veteran leadership and a new level of competitiveness), Gary Harris (a nice 3-and-D shooting guard who has a lot of experience and polish), Jalen Suggs (a young guard who has struggled on offense, but has looked very good defensively), Mo Wagner (a solid backup 5 who can shoot some and is competitive), Jett Howard (an awesome shooting rookie), and Caleb Houston (an awesome young shooter who I think could make a jump in the next couple years).  They also have Jonathan Isaac, who I always hope will be healthy, though you can’t bank on it; he was a potential defensive player of the year player when healthy.  Even if they don’t end up doing a ton this year, they’re going to be so good in the next couple.

X-Factor:  While some who haven’t watched Orlando in the last few years would laugh at this statement, I think it is obvious that Markelle Fultz is Orlando’s fourth best player.  Despite struggles with his jumper, he has improved significantly as a finisher, in the midrange, with his decision making, and his defense; he has gotten so good that I believe he would be a starting guard on most of the teams in the NBA.  I think he could be even better for them as their other players improve.  While Orlando was bad from 3 last year, they have multiple good shooters who have come in.  On top of that, I expect their young big 3 of Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Wendell Carter Jr. will all be better from 3, which will open up the court even more for Fultz.  It’s also worth noting that Fultz has slowly gotten better with his jumper as well.  With all of that, I think Fultz will have his best year yet.

Best Case Scenario:  Orlando makes the playoffs while avoiding the Play-In and puts up a competitive first round series.

Worst Case Scenario:  With this lineup, the worst is that players take a step back and look worse.  What would be even worse is if they decide to make a win now trade that makes no sense with this timeline (I don’t think they’d try for James Harden at least, but still).

 

10:  Brooklyn Nets

Lose in Play-In to Orlando

There are a wide range of outcomes for the Nets season, and I am genuinely not sure what we will see.  They have Mikal Bridges for a full season, who is a great player off the ball who has succeeded when thrown into on-ball situations.  They also have Cam Johnson, who has emerged as a talented scorer.  The biggest question is about Ben Simmons and what he can do; if he improves on both ends, this team could rise a few spots.  They also have Nic Claxton (an awesome finisher and defender), Royce O’Neale (a steady 3-and-D wing), Spencer Dinwiddie (a high volume scoring guard, though I’m not as high on him), Dorian Finney-Smith (a solid 3-and-D forward whose jumper is a bit streaky), Cam Thomas (a high-volume guard who is improving with his efficiency), Lonnie Walker (a score first guard coming off his most efficient season), Dennis Smith Jr. (an efficient scorer who has emerged as a steady playmaker and decision maker), Dariq Whitehead (a rookie who is an awesome jumper and has more to prove in his game), Day’Ron Sharpe (an intriguing athletic big), and Noah Clowney (an athletic rookie big).  I don’t think Brooklyn will be a top-4 team, but they could end up in the Playoffs; they could also wind up being a bottom-3 team.

X-Factor:  After a couple strange years for Ben Simmons that involved a holdout and serious injury, he appears healthy and can get back into the swing of things without the spotlight on him now.  Prior to his injury, he was one of the best defenders in the game and a great point forward; even if the scoring aggressiveness isn’t there, getting back to what he was with the other skills will be a massive milestone.

Best Case Scenario:  The end up playing better than expected across the board and are an amazing defense.  They end up being a 5 seed and making to the second round.

Worst Case Scenario:  They’re not that good and miss the playoffs.  On top of that, Bridges takes a step back and Simmons struggles mightily.

 

11:  Toronto Raptors

Miss Playoffs

How often does a team decide to resolve an issue regarding around shooting struggles replace their point guard with someone significantly worse and then improve?  That is what Toronto is trying to do; while I think there was a lot of bad luck shooting last year, I believe they are indisputably worse at playmaking.  On top of that, there’s some controversy that Masai Ujiri discussed some players eligible for extensions weren’t getting them done for not playing basketball the right way (fun fact:  not the best way to approach that if you want to have leverage after missing the playoffs when an All-NBA player is one of those players).  They still have Pascal Siakam, a legit All-NBA forward who is a great finisher with a great handle.  Former Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes had a rough second season, but he still has potential to rebound due to his playmaking and defensive ability (though I’ve never been a believer in the jumper).  Now for the part I don’t get:  why on earth did they decide Dennis Schröder was the right point guard for them?  The only times he has shown he can contribute to winning basketball include a spot as a 6^th man in OKC and a run last year that involved one of his least efficient seasons; if he is their starting point guard by game 60, I would be floored if they are in contention for a playoff spot.  As for the rest of the team, they have OG Anunoby (an awesome 3-and-D forward who is coming off his best defensive season), Gary Trent Jr. (an awesome shooter who is improving defensively), Jakob Poeltl (an awesome defensive big who is a nice finisher), Jalen McDaniels (an awesome shooter), Otto Porter Jr. (a solid 3-and-D forward coming back from injury), and Gradey Dick (a sharpshooting rookie).  It would also help for Toronto to receive a jump from Precious Achiuwa (he had a rough season, but has shown potential), Chirs Boucher, Malachi Flynn, Christian Koloko.  I just don’t see them playing particularly well this year, especially after losing VanVleet, but I guess anything is possible.

X-Factor:  I have made it clear that I don’t think that Dennis Schröder is Toronto’s best bet to be their starting point guard.  While there are some options on the trade market, a jump from Malachi Flynn would make it easier on them.  Flynn reminds me a lot of the recently departed Fred VanVleet due to his size, shooting touch, and struggles inside the arc, though he hasn’t shown he can be the playmaker that VanVleet is.  Considering there are multiple players who can handle the ball in the starting lineup (most notably Pascal Siakam), I don’t think he necessarily needs to be VanVleet, but rather a suitable replacement.

Best Case Scenario:  They’re better than I think and win a round in the playoffs, resulting in Siakam and Anunoby getting extensions, while Barnes makes a massive jump.

Worst Case Scenario:  Turns out Ujiri’s comments didn’t help and Schröder isn’t a winning starting point guard, resulting in them missing the playoffs.  Further, neither Siakam nor Anunoby get an extension and both leave in free agency, bringing into question what Toronto has around Barnes for the next few years.  Worst of all, Barnes doesn’t get better while the other top-4 picks from the 2021 Draft thrive.

 

12:  Chicago Bulls

Miss Playoffs

In many Christian denominations (notably Catholicism), there is the idea that in addition to the most known heaven and hell in the afterlife, there is also purgatory, which is a place in order to be purified in order to reach heaven.  While you can still get to heaven from purgatory, it is preached that you still want to strive for heaven instead.  This is the closest comparison I can think of with Chicago, as they appear to be a team that doesn’t want to try to reach the top or the bottom of the standings, especially with Lonzo Ball not playing at all this year.  DeMar DeRozan is still their best player and is a great scorer and amazing playmaking forward at this point, likely elongating his prime.  I think it is their best bet to try to trade Zach Lavine (an athletic high-volume scorer who has not shown that he can play on a winning team) and Nikola Vucevic (a great rebounder and finisher with an underrated passing touch and an overrated jumper who cannot defend) as soon as they are able to, though I don’t think they will do that.  Their other players include Alex Caruso (an elite defensive guard who can also shoot some), Patrick Williams (who has developed into a nice 3-and-D player, though I bet they’re hoping he can do a little more), Ayo Dosunmu (a talented and smart combo guard), Torrey Craig (a versatile 3-and-D forward), Jevon Carter (a 3-and-D guard who is a bit smaller than most off-ball guards), Coby White (an aggressive score first guard), and Andre Drummond (who is still one of the best rebounders off the bench).  It’s possible that I am too critical, but I genuinely just don’t understand most of this team.

X-Factor:  While there are few pathways to progress with this team, the clearest is for a jump from Patrick Williams.  When he was drafted 4^th in 2020, there was an intrigue about his upside due to a lot of untapped potential, though I wasn’t as high on him at the time.  Since then, he has been a very good defender and shooter, but that’s largely it; he hasn’t been able to do much on the ball, rebound, or move a ton off the ball.  I’m waiting to see if he can do literally any of these to improve both his stock and that of the team.

Best Case Scenario:  They somehow stumble their way into the 6 seed and put up a competitive series.

Worst Case Scenario:  This.  Seriously, they’re not a playoff team and are incapable of taking a look at what their short-term or long-term goals are.

 

13:  Charlotte Hornets

Miss Playoffs

While there is the idea that Charlotte will be better than they were last year, I think their hopes were harmed by the latest legal issues surrounding Miles Bridges and uncertainty about what will happen with him.  They get LaMelo Ball back, who is a nice shooter and great passer, though he is still reckless with his decisions in most situations.  They drafted Brandon Miller with the 2^nd pick this year, and while he has potential as a shooter and defender, he likely won’t help as a defender this year and his 3 was poor against teams that weren’t good.  They also have P.J. Washington (a solid shooter and scorer), Mark Williams (an awesome finisher and defender), Terry Rozier (a high-volume scoring vet, though I still question how he impacts winning), Gordon Hayward (who is still a solid wing, though his injuries have caused him to struggle and fade pretty quickly), Cody Martin (a nice shooter who is returning from injury), Nick Richards (a quality backup big), Nick Smith (a highly touted prospect who struggled with injury in college, though he is a natural scorer who is very aggressive), and JT Thor (a freak athlete looking to add to his game).  They have a of athleticism, which could be fun, though I don’t see them winning much yet again.

X-Factor:  After years of drafting centers who underwhelmed, Mark Williams looks like that guy for Charlotte.  He is a great player in the paint on both ends, which has made him a smooth pairing with LaMelo Ball).  He can catch lobs, make it difficult to score, and finish with ease at the rim.  While other questions exist, I think they have finally resolved this question.

Best Case Scenario:  The combination of young athletes and players stepping forward allows Charlotte to be in the Play-In.

Worst Case Scenario:  Short of more injuries, it would be that Ball struggles upon coming back and several players are bad enough to be out of it pretty quickly while also ending up with the 6^th pick.

 

14:  Detroit Pistons

Miss Playoffs

While it is possible that they end up making a bigger jump, I don’t see them doing so with their lineup.  That said, they have basically combined young athleticism with shooting to create this lineup.  Cade Cunningham was reportedly awesome for the U.S. Select Team this year, resulting in speculation that he will make a massive leap, which is possible.  Detroit also has a few young players who look like they are already key pieces in their rebuild, including Jaden Ivey (who had a nice year as an aggressive scorer), Jalen Duran (an awesome finishing big who is really athletic), and Isaiah Stewart (a physical big who might be able to shoot some).  They also have a couple rookies who I am not high on but might have potential in Ausar Thompson (a freak athlete who is a good defender and might be able to be a point guard, though he is raw) and Marcus Sasser (a solid scoring combo guard who is undersized and might be better suited for college).  They have a lot of great shooters and scorers in Bogdan Bogdanovic, Joe Harris, Monte Morris, Alec Burks, and Isaiah Livers (while younger than the others listed in this sentence, he is already 25 and is older than most of their other players in the rebuild).  In order to make a step forward, they could also use some help from at least one of James Wiseman, Marcus Bagley, and Killian Hayes (don’t hold your breath though).  With the athleticism they have on the team, pretty much anything is possible, though I expect them to struggle.

X-Factor:  While they already have two talented young big men with Jalen Duran and Isaiah Stewart, they also have a couple former number-2 picks with Marvin Bagley and James Wiseman.  I always felt like Wiseman had the higher upside out of the two and has shown glimpses of what he can do on both ends.  He was raw entering the NBA after only playing 3 games in college and getting injured didn’t help.  If he can get the reps needed, he could develop into something special, though it is starting to be difficult since he is still so raw after 3 seasons since being drafted.

Best Case Scenario:  Cunningham is a star and at least one of their younger players makes a massive jump as well, resulting in them sneaking into the Play-In.

Worst Case Scenario:  Cade Cunningham doesn’t make a jump, most of the younger guys remain the same, and they miss out on one of the top few picks while their future remains murky.

 

15:  Washington Wizards

Miss Playoffs

I’m not even going to try to mince my words with Washington:  this is going to be rough.  Now that they have finally traded Bradley Beal (a few years later than they should have) and also dumped Kristaps Porzingis (let’s face it, the value they got back was limited), it’s time for a rebuild in a year that is one year after the loaded draft.  They have a really strange combination of veterans and young players who will likely not contribute to enough wins to make them worth paying attention to this year.  I expect Kyle Kuzma will have another awesome year this year, though it wouldn’t surprise me if his efficiency takes a hit without Beal and Porzingis.  They brought in Tyus Jones, who I think is such a steady point guard who will at least keep things more in control than some other options; he can also defend and shoot.  I personally am a fan of Bilal Coulibaly, who they traded up to draft with the 7^th pick in the draft; while he is raw, I think his size and scoring potential in several aspects of the floor will make him an exciting prospect in the long-term, though it could be a struggle at first.  They also now have acquired a few chuckers in Jordan Poole and Landry Shamet.  They have several young players who might be something if they make a bit of a jump, including Deni Avdija (who has been very good defensively but a negative offensively), Corey Kispert (an elite shooter and smart offensive player who is still a negative defensively), and Daniel Gafford (a theoretically solid defensive big and finisher, though he is inconsistent and was often disappointing last year, especially defensively).  They also have some steady veterans who should be nice leaders both on and off the court, including Taj Gibson, Danilo Gallinari, Mike Muscala, and Delon Wright.  They’re just starting a rebuild, so it’ll be a few years of this.

X-Factor:  While I’m not sure it’ll ever happen, I have some hope for Deni Avdija to show improvements as an offensive player.  While he has been a very good defender, the offense has not developed.  The one thing I keep pointing to is that one of his strengths entering the draft was his handle and playmaking potential, though Washington largely has had the ball out of his hands.  This is the year to take a chance given how bad they will be, though I don’t expect them to try it given how bad Washington has been at developing prospects over the last several years.

Best Case Scenario:  They’ll be bad either way, but they have bright spots with Coulibaly looking like he could develop into a top-3 player on a competitive team, one or two young players take a step forward, either Poole or Shamet repair their trade value, and Kuzma and Jones look like they will net massive returns either at the trade deadline or next offseason.

Worst Case Scenario:  They’re terrible and end up with the 5^th pick in the draft.  On top of that, Coulibaly looks worse than expected, none of their young players look good, Kuzma takes a step back, Poole and Shamet are too inefficient, and Jones and all the veterans wonder what kind of hell they have been subjected to.

 

 

West

1:  Denver Nuggets

Win Championship

After winning the championship last year, Denver seems poised to repeat as they have their entire starting lineup back.  They still have Nikola Jokic (one of the best players in the NBA who is definitely the best passing big in NBA history), Jamal Murray (a superstar in the playoffs with some regular season inconsistencies who is primed to be good this season), Aaron Gordon (a great defensive forward whose cutting ability make him the perfect fit on offense), Michael Porter Jr. (an amazing shooter who is improving defensively), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (a great 3-and-D wing who fits perfectly with this team).  They don’t have much depth off their bench from last year, as the only player in their 9-man rotation remaining and healthy is Christian Braun (a nice shooter and defender who makes a lot of aggressive smaller plays).  Peyton Watson makes the most sense to play a bigger role given his size and upside on both ends, especially his finishing ability he displayed.  While they’ll probably try playing Reggie Jackson and Justin Holiday at points, their best bet is that some of Zeke Nnaji, Julian Strawther, Jalen Pickett, and Hunter Tyson make a jump.  While I think they will be amazing this year, it is worth monitoring how they do following their championship and if Calvin Booth’s strange comments that were a bit too honest will go with the team.

X-Factor:  The logical question is who will fill in the Bruce Brown role off the bench.  While I’m not sure they have that, I could see Christian Braun being something similar to Brown in Brooklyn.  He is a nice shooter, smart cutter, and great defender who is versatile.  I think he can play a big role at multiple positions for them and be clutch as he improves on the ball.

Best Case Scenario:  They thrive again, their depth proves doubters wrong, and they win another championship.

Worst Case Scenario:  The Championship hangover is a bit too legitimate and they don’t take the season seriously, their bench isn’t good, and Calvin Booth’s ill-advised comments way too heavily on the mind, resulting in a first round exit.

 

2:  Oklahoma City Thunder

Lose in 2^nd Round to the Lakers

I get it, 2^nd might seem like such a big jump, especially since they are so young.  That said, this team reminds me of Memphis when they made their massive jump to the 2-seed, and I think they have the fewest questions out of the teams 2-11 while also trying to win as many regular season games as they can.  They have an amazing core-4 in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (one of the best guards in the game and one of my favorite players in the game; geez, I am so glad I was so wrong about him in the 2018 Draft when I thought he would be a bust along with Marvin Bagley, Kevin Knox, and Jerome Robinson), Jalen Williams (an amazing 2-way wing with a nice jumper and playmaking ability), Josh Giddey (a massive playmaker who can defend forwards and is improving as a shooter), and Chet Holmgren (an awesome shooter and defender in the paint, though it is worth monitoring his size and health).  They have so many other good players, including Lu Dort (an awesome wing defender, though not a good shooter), Kenrich Williams (a consistent 3-and-D forward who loves playing in OKC), Aaron Wiggins (a nice shooting wing), Isaiah Joe (a nice shooting guard with a smooth jumper), Jaylin Wiliams (a backup big who does all the dirty work), Tre Mann (a solid shooter), and Cason Wallace (a rookie combo guard who might not do much for a winning team yet, but I think he will be best in a Jrue Holiday type role).  It’s worth noting that some would point out that they have Ousmane Dieng and Aleksej Pokusevski (who is injured), though both are likely too raw to contribute.  I think they are such a good team and will make a jump.  The biggest thing I have fears about is what Holmgren will be like as a rookie; had Holmgren been able to play last year, I think they would be the clear 2-seed this year.

X-Factor:  Kenrich Williams is an awesome shooter and 2-way player who is the type of player role player you want to have on the team.  What’s even better for them is that he loves OKC and has expressed an interest in playing there for his entire career.  I think his versatility will allow them to use so many different lineups around him, which makes him such a key player.

Best Case Scenario:  They make a massive jump and also go far in the playoffs, even competing for a Finals appearance.

Worst Case Scenario:  They aren’t ready for the jump that I predict they will make, especially with Chet Holmgren having struggles as a rookie, and they just miss the Play-In.

 

3:  Los Angeles Lakers

Lose in Western Conference Finals to Denver

I think there is a lot of variability regarding what this team is and could be; while they could be a competitive contender, there also are the questions about health and if last season was a fluke.  LeBron James is still one of the best players in the league when healthy, though he’s missed a lot of games over the past few years.  Anthony Davis has also dealt with injuries throughout his career, but he is one of the most talented bigs in the league on both ends when healthy.  I think Austin Reaves looks like a good 3^rd option for this team given his shooting, defense, and playmaking ability.  Other players that could help include Jarred Vanderbilt (a nice finisher with defensive ability as a big), D’Angelo Russell (a great scorer and shooter, though he continues to have poor shot selection), Rui Hachimura (a strong forward and finisher who fit well with the team), Taurean Prince (a nice shooting wing who is good enough defensively), Gabe Vincent (a solid guard who is aggressive on both ends), and Max Christie (an awesome shooter who I think has potential to do more).  They also have Christian Wood, Jaxson Hayes, and Cam Reddish, though I question why they’re even planning on having any in the rotation.  I think what happened after the trade deadline was legitimate and can repeat itself; will their health?

X-Factor:  Anthony Davis is dead set on playing power forward for some reason, and the Lakers would rather cater to his requests than win a championship by doing what is obviously better for them.  Their options with bigs are Jarred Vanderbilt (who can’t shoot), Christian Wood (who can’t defend), and Jaxson Hayes (who has been inconsistent in his young career).  While it has been a rocky road, Hayes would be the perfect fit if he can discover the shooting potential and rim protection ability that he has shown at points.  If he can’t, then the Lakers have no excuse when starting Davis in a position that doesn’t help them win in big games.

Best Case Scenario:  The team is healthy and last season wasn’t a fluke, allowing them to win their 18^th championship.

Worst Case Scenario:  Injuries pile up and players regress a bit, forcing them back into the Play-In and then an unfavorable first round matchup.

 

4:  Phoenix Suns

Lose in 2^nd round to Denver

There is a lot of variability of what we can see from this team, as they can easily win the championship, or they can struggle with injuries and end up with a poor seed.  Still, a trio of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal sounds like an absolutely insane trio that will be difficult to stop…so long as they stay healthy (since the start of the 2019-20 season, Durant has never topped 55 games, Booker has reached 70 games once, and Beal has reached 60 games once.  I also don’t get trading Deandre Ayton for Jusuf Nurkic (though they did get a couple nice role players), especially since Nurkic has been plagued with the same bad injury luck in that span, as well as being a worse defender than Ayton; I think Phoenix was the biggest loser in that trade and I question if they even watched Nurkic play over the last few years.  The rest of their core looks like it could be better, as they have Grayson Allen (an excellent shooter), Josh Okogie (an awesome defensive wing), Eric Gordon (an excellent shooter and scorer), Nassir Little (who looks like a great 3-and-D player), Yuta Watanabe (a solid shooting wing who plays hard), Drew Eubanks (a solid backup big), and Keita Bates-Diop (an athletic forward whose shot is developing).  They have a championship ceiling, but there’s a lot of risk with both their starting lineup and their bench (many of whom are on minimum signings for a reason).

X-Factor:  Phoenix has 4 starters set in stone with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Jusuf Nurkic.  While the final spot will likely go to Josh Okogie or Grayson Allen, I would like to see Nassir Little get there by the end of the season.  He has developed into a skilled 2-way player, though he is still young and might not be ready yet.  If he is ready by the playoffs, I think his size will make him the best option as the fifth guy in the rotation.

Best Case Scenario:  They’re healthy enough and their bench is good, resulting in them easily riding to a championship.

Worst Case Scenario:  Injuries add up and their bench shows why most of them were minimum signings, resulting in them being in the Play-In and not making it far.

 

5:  Sacramento Kings

Lose in 1^st round to Phoenix

I don’t think Sacramento will regress significantly, though it is possible given their defense will still be not great, and there’s questions about injury luck last year.  Still, their two stars of De’Aaron Fox (who has developed into an amazing and clutch offensive player, vindicated my opinion that he was my favorite player entering the 2017 Draft) and Domantas Sabonis (a talented offensive big man whose playmaking as a big is second to only Jokic).  Some of their role players that I think have potential to do something include Harrison Barnes (a beloved teammate and efficient scorer), Keegan Murray (a 3-and-D player who could expand on his ball skills from his rookie year), Kevin Huerter (an amazing shooter who is a great mover and has some playmaking touch), Malik Monk (an efficient bench scorer with a knack of creating shots for himself), Trey Lyles (a big with a pretty shooting stroke), Davion Mitchell (a smooth defensive guard),  and Chris Duarte (a solid shooter with a nice jumper).  Even if they regress a bit, I don’t see them being worse than a solid team who is at least competing for a Play-In sport.

X-Factor:  It’s no secret that Sacramento is starved for defense.  While guys like Keegan Murray and Harrison Barnes are solid at defending wings and forwards and they tried to bring in JaVale McGee (though he is later in his career), they need Davion Mitchell to step up offensively to stay on the court.  Mitchell has proven to be a talented defender, though he is an offensive liability who might not be able to stay on the court; if he can stay out there, he will be a key defensively.

Best Case Scenario:  Not only do they repeat as a great regular season team, but their elite offense and good enough offense result in some playoff success as well.

Worst Case Scenario:  Last year was a fluke and once defensive issues and injury issues catch up to them, they miss the Play-In.

 

6:  Golden State Warriors

Lose in 1^st round to the Lakers

I get it, nobody wants to be the first to give up on a dynasty.  That said, I don’t actually think they’re a bad team; in fact, it is possible they finish 2^nd in the West, though the conference has so many competitive teams.  Steph Curry is still one of the best offensive players in the game and has a game that has aged so well due to his scoring and playmaking.  Draymond Green has his weaknesses offensively, but he is still an amazing defender who is also one of the smartest players in the league on both ends (it’s worth monitoring his current injury).  While their main core has gotten a little older, Andrew Wiggins has paired perfectly with the team as a great defender who has gotten so good with his shot selection, which was a far cry from his time in Minnesota.  While he has had his inconsistencies since coming back from his injuries (especially defensively), Klay Thompson is still one of the best shooters in the league who is still so valuable.  With all of that, I think the biggest question is how they handle Chris Paul; Paul wants to start since he has never come off the bench, but I don’t think he makes any sense to pair with this lineup.  Their other role players include Kevon Looney (an amazing defender who also is such a smart player on both ends, almost like a prodigy of Green), Gary Payton II (one of the better defensive guards in the guards), Jonathan Kuminga (an amazing athlete who is still pretty raw), Dario Saric (a nice shooter who has a quality offensive game), and Moses Moody (a quality young player with upside as a scorer).  I think their experience will bring them far, but their younger players need to take a jump.

X-Factor:  I think the x-factor is less of a player and more of a roster decision:  Looney needs to start with this roster.  While Chris Paul is still a good player, their defense will suffer mightily.  Looney has already shown how perfectly he fits with this team, and why fix something that isn’t broken?

Best Case Scenario:  Paul buys into a bench role, and they play as well as they’ve been doing over the past several years all the way to another championship.

Worst Case Scenario:  They decide to appease Paul and keep him in the starting lineup, the older players take a step back, the younger players don’t do what they need to, and they end up being a Play-In casualty; worse yet, no extension comes for Thompson and there are questions about the future.

 

7:  Memphis Grizzlies

Lose in 1^st round to Oklahoma City

I initially had Memphjs as a top-4 team until a massive news story came out the day that I am writing this preview:  Steven Adams is going to miss the entire season due to injury; when he was out, they were atrocious at rebounder (which isn’t helped by Brandon Clarke’s injury as well).  While Morant is going to be suspended for the first 25 games, he is still an incredible playmaker and explosive scorer who makes a massive difference for this team on the court.  I expect Jaren Jackson and Desmond Bane will continue to improve offensively, even as Jackson continues to be a superstar defensively.  Jaren Jackson is someone I would expect to do more offensively, which he had taken a step forward while he won Defensive Player of the Year; that said, he needs to be better at rebounding and not fouling.  I also expect that Desmond Bane will take a jump forward, especially as he has continued to improve as a scorer, shooter, and playmaker.  The rest of the team is made up of Marcus Smart (the newly acquired combo guard who is a great defender and a now very good playmaker), Luke Kennard (one of the best off-ball shooters in the league, though he has moments he seems hesitant to shoot), Xavier Tillman (a talented backup big who will likely be their starting center this year), Ziaire Williams (an aggressive scorer who looked so good as a rookie but was injured most of last year), Santi Aldama (a solid big who has also improved as a shooter), John Konchar (a solid shooting and scoring wing), David Roddy (a forward who matched the NBA’s athleticism better than I expected he would as a rookie), and Jake LaRavia (a competitive forward with a nice jumper).  While they have all this talent, I honestly think that unless someone can get a rebound without Adams, this might all be for naught.

X-Factor:  While most would likely say that their bigs are essential here, I also think it’s worth noting that their bench is thinner after effectively replacing Dillon Brooks (who they wisely let walk) and Tyus Jones (who they actually traded) for Marcus Smart.  Last year, I expected Ziaire Williams would make a big jump, but he was injured most of last year.  I think he can make a massive impact as a scorer off the bench, which Memphis will absolutely need all they can get until Morant returns from the suspension.

Best Case Scenario:  Morant comes back and doesn’t miss a beat, several players take leaps forward, and one of their bigs is able to embrace the rebounding role, resulting in them making the Western Conference Finals (and possibly NBA Finals).

Worst Case Scenario:  Short of Morant having another off-court incident, I would say that none of the role players take a leap forward, the same weaknesses still prevail, and Smart ends up being more like Dillon Brooks than himself, resulting in the team struggling to make the Play-In Tournament and losing quickly.

 

8:  Los Angeles Clippers

Lose in 1^st Round to Denver

It may seem weird to have the Clippers so low, but I have reservations about their health and depth.  Kawhi Leonard are both stars, though both have struggled with injuries over the last several years, especially since joining the Clippers (it’s also worth noting that George has been inconsistent as the second-best player on a team throughout his career, especially with Leonard).  The rotation has a lot of guys who can play, though I fear that they will favor names over talent, something they have consistently done while also being rumored to be chasing James Harden.  That said, their bench has Terance Mann (a talented wing/guard who is great on both ends and is improving as a playmaker), Ivaca Zubac (an effective 2-way traditional big who can do so much on the court), Norman Powell (an efficient scorer and shooter who has been amazing off the bench for them), Mason Plumlee (another great 2-way big who is also a quality passer), Russell Westbrook (a great playmaker who has transitioned from the role of superstar to a point guard), Nicolas Batum (the perfect role player for this team as a 3-and-D versatile forward), Kenyon Martin Jr. (a talented and athletic forward who has upside further than his scoring that he’s shown), and Bones Hyland (a high volume scoring guard).  I think there are several role players who are on the decline; while it is still possible to win with these types of players (think of the Big 3 era in Miami), the Clippers appear to be in denial and think these players are in their primes.  If injuries aren’t the death of this team, it could be this factor if they don’t go far in the playoffs.

X-Factor:  While the Clippers recent successes overshadow decades of failure under Donald Sterling, they still have one massive flaw in my mind:  they care more about names than fit and talent.  While the most recent examples of this have included them going after guys like Russell Westbrook, John Wall, Eric Gordon, and most recently James Harden.  That said, they have a player who is clearly their third best player:  Terance Mann.  He is a great 2-way player who can defend, shoot, and handle the ball at a good rate.  While they continue to be compared to the Lakers, it is worth noting that the Lakers weren’t afraid to put Austin Reaves in that role; I don’t expect the Clippers will be willing to try to trust someone who isn’t a massive name in the role.

Best Case Scenario:  Their health cooperates, the supporting cast plays well, and they win the championship fairly easily.

Worst Case Scenario:  Their injury luck is rotten, the supporting cast looks as weak as I fear it might, they think names is the answer and not skill, and they miss the Play-In

 

9:  Dallas Mavericks

Lose in Play-In to the Clippers

I get it, many people will look at this and say that this is too low, but I still have my questions despite making improvements.  While we’ll see what their chemistry is this year, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are both offensive talents on their own, though both have dealt with injuries and defensive indifference, while Doncic is often lost off the ball and Irving has dealt with public off-court issues as well.  That said, I do believe the chemistry between them will be much better, especially at the end of games.  The rest of their core is pretty good, as they have Grant Williams (a versatile forward who has been a good 3-and-D forward), Seth Curry (an amazing shooter who is one of the better shooters in the league), Josh Green (a great defensive wing and solid shooter…when he shoots), Dwight Powell (a solid finisher and okay defender who continues to get the starting job), Tim Hardaway Jr. (an awesome offensive player who can score both on and off the ball), Maxi Kleber (a solid stretch big who plays well off the ball), Dereck Lively (an extremely athletic rookie big with awesome defensive potential, though he is raw), and Jaden Hardy (a great scorer who also showed more efficiency from deep in his rookie year than expected).  I still doubt if Dallas is better than most of the teams in the West; they have a high variability of outcomes.

X-Factor:  In my opinion, Dallas would be best suited with their wing starters if they had Josh Green start considering his ability defensively and shot ability.  That said, he has sometimes been unwilling to shoot when open.  Their offense needs him to shoot when he has the opportunity if they want to reach their peak potential.

Best Case Scenario:  The Doncic-Irving pairing fits beautifully, the rest of the team fits swimmingly, they are a championship contender, and Doncic is excited to stay in Dallas long term.

Worst Case Scenario:  Some combination of the Doncic-Irving pairing still lacking chemistry, major injuries, Irving being involved with more off-court chemistry issues, and the rest of the team struggling results in Dallas missing the Play-In again, making Doncic seriously question Dallas’s dedication to winning.

 

10:  Minnesota Timberwolves

Lose in Play-In to Dallas

This team appears to be among the most polarizing teams in the league, as many experts say that this team should make a jump, though I genuinely see how they’ll pull this off.  I could see Anthony Edwards making yet another jump to superstardom; he is an amazing player and athlete (I am thrilled that I was wrong entering his draft in thinking he wasn’t that amazing).  They also have Towns back from injury, who is one of the best offensive bigs in the league, but we’ll have to see how the pairing with Rudy Gobert goes, especially as I fear Gobert might take a step back.  That said, I still love some other guys on their team for this season, including Mike Conley (a very good point guard who can create his own shots while also being so steady), Jaden McDaniels (an awesome defender who has been a nice offensive scorer as well, especially from 3), Kyle Anderson (a great playmaker and shooting forward who has a high IQ and controls the game at his own pace, which is slowly), and Naz Reid (one of the best backup bigs in the league due to his versatility on offense).  While I don’t think this team will figure out the Towns and Gobert pairing, it is possible for Minnesota to be an all-around good team, especially if some of their later bench players pop.

X-Factor:  With Gobert starting to slow down defensively, Towns not being a good defender, and Conley having limitations at his current age, I think Jaden McDaniels becomes an essential player for this team.  He has proven to be an amazing defender and looks to be at the minimum a great 3-and-D guy.  I expect he will have more to do defensively this year.

Best Case Scenario:  Gobert and Towns figure out how to play together, Edwards plays like a top-10 player, several bench players play well to make them insanely deep, and Conley continues to perform well, resulting in a playoff birth with the potential to advance a round.

Worst Case Scenario:  Egos get in the way of this team, Towns and Gobert can’t figure it out, Gobert takes another step back, and everything is too clogged for Edwards, resulting in them missing the playoffs and the serious consideration of trading Towns.

 

11:  New Orleans Pelicans

Miss Playoffs

I think most people would find this to be a surprise by having New Orleans so low, but a loaded Western Conference and questions regarding injuries will continue to remain, as will defensive issues.  The good news is that it is expected that their core of Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and C.J. McCollum should be healthy (though they’ve barely played together, so we’ll see how long this lasts).  While all have question marks defensively, all are amazing offensively, though Williamson has topped 30 games once in his career and Ingram is often injured as well.  I like several pieces of their core surrounding them, including Jonas Valanciunas (an awesome offensive big), Herb Jones (an elite defender), Larry Nance Jr. (a freak athlete and great defender), Dyson Daniels (an amazing defender with playmaking potential), and Jose Alvarado (an irritant defensively who is improving offensively).  It is also a red flag that they already are dealing with injuries to Trey Murphy (an awesome 3-and-D player who I thought was going to be so valuable this year) and Naji Marshall (an athletic wing who is a good defender).  Even if they are healthy, I honestly wonder if they can be a good enough defense to compete in the West.  That said, I tend to be cautious with teams that are injury prone.

X-Factor:  While health is the biggest area of concern with this team, I don’t think enough people have questioned if New Orleans will be a good enough defense.  There are a few players who I think are very good to great defenders, but I think the best is Herb Jones.  While his offensive upside might be limited, I seriously believe he has All-Defensive team potential this season, and even Defensive Player of the Year potential within 5 seasons.

Best Case Scenario:  They are finally relatively healthy, and their stars thrive together, allowing them to be a top-3 team in the West while making it to the Conference Finals (and possibly NBA Finals).

Worst Case Scenario:  Well, this is easy:  they are hampered by several injuries all season (the normal trend) and cannot find any level of consistency or any defensive identity, resulting in them not only finishing outside the top-10, but also slipping into 12^th or lower.

 

12:  Houston Rockets

Miss Playoffs

I consider Houston to be in one of the strangest situations in the league:  while they have an intriguing young core and a new coach (Ime Udoka), there is obvious pressure to win now, but I don’t think the moves they made will help them win enough.  I think their 3 most clear young core players are Jalen Green (an amazing athlete and scorer, though he struggled with efficiency last season), Alperen Sengun (an amazing offensive big who is a great playmaker, though he is not a good defender), and Jabari Smith (who struggled early as a rookie, but looked so good as a shooter and showed some on-ball ability in Summer League).  They brought in a few veterans as well, with the most notable being Fred VanVleet (a steady point guard who should provide stability and help other players improve their shooting efficiency, especially Smith and Green, though he isn’t a good finisher from 2) and Dillon Brooks (an irritant defensively who has received praise for his aggressiveness, though he is a poor offensive player due to shot selection and ability and is often reckless on both ends, especially with fouling).  They have several young players as well, with my favorite 3 being Amen Thompson (a rookie who is a big playmaker with amazing athleticism who I had as the second best player in the draft, though he is raw), Tari Eason (a nice two-way forward who should improve), and Cam Whitmore (a rookie with great explosiveness who I had as the 5^th best rookie).  While it’s possible they make a jump (I expect several young players on their team will), I don’t think they’ll be good enough to make the Play-In.

X-Factor:  After trading Kevin Porter Jr. following domestic assault charges, there were reports that Houston was interested in another guard.  While more opportunities will be open for Amen Thompson as a guard, I wonder if they would be willing to give Aaron Holiday an opportunity.  While smaller and not a great playmaker, he is a great shooter and isn’t a bad defender.  I think he could play alongside other players who play with the ball in their hands more, which might make trading for someone like Malcolm Brogdon less urgent if he succeeds in the role.

Best Case Scenario:  The combination of Udoka and the veterans help teach the younger players what it takes to win, and many of the younger players buy in while making a jump, resulting in a first-round appearance in the playoffs and one of their younger players being in All-Star discussions.

Worst Case Scenario:  Udoka doesn’t have the same level of respect after his season-long suspension, the younger guys don’t fully buy in, many younger players regress, Brooks is immature and spends a lot of time being unplayable on both ends while fighting the record for most technical fouls in a season, and ownership doesn’t recognize that maybe this team wasn’t ready to win in a competitive Western Conference.

 

13:  Utah Jazz

Miss Playoffs

A lot of people are high on Utah, and I honestly get it; they have a lot of talented players and a great coach in Will Hardy.  That said, their offense was lost at points after they traded Mike Conley, and I believe they will still struggle without someone good at setting the offense.  That said, they have some interesting talent, headlined by their 3 guys who were off limits in trades:  Lauri Markkanen (an awesome offensive player and shooter), Walker Kessler (a natural fit in the NBA who is an awesome defender and much more athletic than I thought he was entering the 2022 Draft), and Ochai Agbaji (who looks like a key 3-and-D player who should be a major contributor after a slow start to his rookie year).  They also drafted 3 rookies in the first round with Taylor Hendricks going 9^th (a player who projects to be a very good and versatile 3-and-D player, though I have concerns), Keyontae George with the 16^th pick (a high volume scorer who I was very high on entering the draft), and Brice Sensabaugh with the 27^th pick (a popular prospect in the online draft circles due to his scoring and shooting ability, though he is a poor defender and has been dealing with injuries); while I expect they each will have their struggles this year, I think they could be contributors long term.  They have other interesting players, most notably John Collins, Collin Sexton, and Jordan Clarkson.  It’s possible that they make the playoffs, but I think it will be difficult with such a loaded Western Conference.  That said, they have some talented players.

X-Factor:  While I’d be shocked if Utah started Kris Dunn at point guard, I think it isn’t the worst idea.  He has shown increased playmaking ability over the last two years and scored better than he ever has in 22 games in Utah last season.  If the scoring and playmaking is legit, he would probably be their best bet at point guard since he is such an elite defender.

Best Case Scenario:  The Markkanen, Kessler, and Agbaji trio are all amazing, Collins rebuilds his value, at least one rookie is a major contributor (while most would project Hendricks, don’t sleep on George), their bench is awesome, someone emerges as a lead playmaker, and they make the playoffs while winning a couple games in the first round.

Worst Case Scenario:  None of their rookies play well, Markkanen, Kessler, Agbaji, and Collins take a step back, and nobody outside of Clarkson and Olynyk (who always appear to be reliable) show any level of consistency.

 

14:  San Antonio Spurs

Miss Playoffs

While San Antonio had some intriguing talent prior to the offseason, they made headlines by getting the top pick in the draft and selecting Victor Wembenyama, a 7’4 forward who has shooting potential, a decent handle for his size, amazing shot blocking ability, and IQ; that said, he is still extremely raw, has atrocious shot selection, and doesn’t seem to recognize his weaknesses with his handle, so his presence likely won’t result in a ton of wins immediately.  They do have a couple other young players who seem to be obvious parts of their future in Devin Vassell, a young player who has evolved past his initial expected ceiling of 3-and-D wing and now has more on-ball ability, and Jeremy Sochan, an awesome defender who looks like he will be a great point forward, though he cannot shoot.  I also really like their younger players in Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, and Zach Collins, all of whom should compete for starting roles.  They also have several other young players who could have potential, but they have a nice core ready.  I don’t think they’re ready to compete for the playoffs at all, but they’re making progress with their rebuild.

X-Factor:  Tre Jones is a steady point guard who I think will be a good starter (like his brother, Tyus).  There is one massive difference between the two brothers:  Tre has not shown that he can shoot.  He has shown upside with his shot in both college and the NBA with the form and free throw ability; if he gets there sooner, San Antonio’s offense could open up even more quicker.

Best Case Scenario:  All their young players mesh and look really good together, Wembanyama looks like a great player as a rookie, and they sneak their way into a Play-In game.

Worst Case Scenario:  The worst-case scenario realistically is having several injuries.  That said, if Wembanyama is a disaster and is nowhere near as good as expected (which honestly is a possibility), then the outlook on San Antonio’s rebuild has to come into question.

 

15:  Portland Trail Blazers

Miss Playoffs

Now that Damian Lillard is gone, it would normally be time for a rebuild, but Portland got lucky and ended up with the 3^rd pick in a loaded draft this past season.  Now they can pair Scoot Henderson with Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons, each of whom are scorers with so much potential, as well as the newly acquired Deandre Ayton, who should clean up all the misses.  Kris Murray and Rob Williams good also have a nice impact for this team.  They have several interesting players who could be intriguing down the road (as well as some players who will probably net a return). The biggest question revolves around Jerami Grant; Portland gave him a massive new contract prior to trading Damian Lillard, and while he is a great 2-way player when the 3^rd or 4^th best player on the team, the ceiling is limited when he is a top-2 player.  Still, for a rebuilding team, they are off to a slam dunk to start their rebuild now that they have a potential top option (Henderson), a potential second option (Sharpe), and several nice young players.

X-Factor:  For most of his career, Matisse Thybulle has been one of the best defensive wings in the league, though an atrocious offensive player who you could leave open.  After Portland traded for him, he shot 38.8% on 3.9 attempts per game, both of which were massive improvements for him.  My first question is whether this was a fluke, and my second is how much Damian Lillard helped take away other players.  If he can replicate this, he could end up being a key starter over the next few seasons.

Best Case Scenario:  Honestly, their best bet is to stink but their young players look good.  If the Henderson, Sharpe, and Simons combo works, that is a massive development.  From there, Ayton plays well and fixes any mistakes on both ends that the young players make, multiple young players look good, Robert Williams is healthy, Malcolm Brogdon nets a return, and Grant looks good enough to net a sizeable return in the offseason.

Worst Case Scenario:  They end up with the 5^th pick or worse and their future looks lost.  The combination of Henderson, Sharpe, and Simons doesn’t fit, Grant struggles and doesn’t net a worthwhile trade return, Ayton is just there, and Robert Williams and Malcolm Brogdon both get hurt and ruin their trade values.

 

What are you looking forward to this season?  Any predictions for the year?  Let me know in the comments!