2024 March Madness Predictions – Women’s

For years, there has been a perception that one team in the Women’s March Madness tournament will dominate.  For many years, there was some truth to this, as dynasties formed, with teams like Louisiana Tech, USC, Tennessee, Stanford, UConn, Baylor, and South Carolina all won multiple championships within a short window of their primes.  South Carolina appeared to be the newest, but fell to Iowa in the Final Four.  This opened the opportunity for LSU to win and continue a unique era in Women’s college basketball, resulting in the 5th unique winner in 5 tournaments.

While there are several talented teams that could go far in the tournament, I cannot stray from predicting an undefeated South Carolina team.  Dawn Staley is one of the best coaches in college basketball, the team is again amazing, and they appear to have addressed their concerns from last seasons.  I have them beating Iowa 81-75.  Still, it won’t be an easy team for either team to go all the way, which is especially true for Iowa.

As a note, there are three metrics that I consider on the women’s side (there are slightly different metrics on the Women’s side):  3-point percentage, free throw percentage (both of these indicate shooting), and defensive rating (indicating defense).  While 2-point percentage has also been viewed as important, I have not found this to directly correlate with championship success in recent years.

 

 

My Final Four

South Carolina

Gee, a 32-0 South Carolina team doesn’t feel like that crazy of a pick to have winning.  The catch is that they are just so dominant.  With my metrics, they are 1st in defensive rating, 3rd in three-point percentage, and 63rd in free throw percentage (that could be a concern).  After a couple seasons where they struggled from deep, they have been dominant this year.  They also appear to be better defensively against 3’s, which is what I thought you had to do to beat them last year (they are also still unreal at defending 2’s).  Their team includes players like Kamilla Cardosa (senior, a dominant force on both ends in the paint), Raven Johnson (sophomore, an aggressive guard who is smart on both ends), Te-Hina Paopao (senior, a versatile sharpshooting wing), Ashlyn Watkins (sophomore, a versatile sparkplug off the bench), Bree Hall (junior, a sharpshooting off-ball guard), Chloe Kitts (sophomore, a talented big on both ends), MiLaysia Fulwiley (freshman, an aggressive guard on both ends with a nice handle who looked mature for a freshman in the conference tournament), and Tessa Johnson (freshman, a sharpshooting guard).  Are they immortal?  Maybe not by the definition of what mortal actually means in human sense, but they are better than every other team in the tournament.

 

Iowa

I get that everyone is going to look at Iowa and say “of course, Caitlin Clark is there”, and that’s true to a certain extent.  Iowa has built their offense to have Clark star, dominate both ends, and make so many right decisions.  Everyone talks about how amazing of a scorer Clark is (which she is an amazing scorer and shooter), but this has honestly made her playmaking ability and basketball IQ become underrated, both of which are elite.  Their offense is amazing, though their defense is atrocious; they are 5th in three-point percentage, 5th in free throw percentage, and 64th in defensive rating.  Outside of Clark, their team is made up of Kate Martin (redshirt senior, a skilled guard who is a great scorer), Gabbie Marshall (redshirt senior, a versatile guard who excels of the ball), Hannah Stuelke (sophomore, a versatile forward who is an amazing finisher), Molly Davis (redshirt senior, an amazing scorer who is also a good playmaker), and Sydney Affolter (junior, an efficient scorer from anywhere who is also a good rebounder).  They do have a tough road to get to the championship and will struggle defensively, but they’re so amazing at offense that I honestly believe it’ll be tough for them not to easily outscore most of their opponents.

 

UConn

While a lot of casual fans will have them going far due to their history, this pick is a serious risk given how injured they have been this year (to show how beat up they’ve been, they had redshirt freshman Ice Brady, who is averaging 17.5 MPG and has started 3 games this year, play all 40 minutes in the Big East finals since they ran out of bigs).  That said, they still fared so well with each metric, as they were 6th in defensive rating, 14th in three-point percentage, and 21st in free throw percentage.  The biggest thing for them is that Paige Bueckers is back and is better than ever, especially both as a scorer and defender (while she’s a good playmaker, she is more of a natural scorer).  Their other “healthy” (the first player listed is going to be wearing a mask due to a nose injury) players include Aaliyah Edwards (senior, a big who is amazing at both ends and continues to be immensely underrated), Nika Muhl (senior, a skilled guard who is an amazing scorer and playmaker), Ashlynn Shade (freshman, an incredibly skilled scorer and shooter), KK Arnold (freshman, a skilled guard who is smart on both ends and can play either on or off the ball), and the aforementioned Brady (redshirt freshman, a big who is skilled defensively).  It won’t be easy to get out of their region, but if Edwards is healthy, they could end up going far.

 

Stanford

I honestly believe that the only reason Stanford is a 2 seed instead of a 1 seed is because of the NCAA’s obsession with conference tournament results.  Even then, their metrics are not stellar, as they are 10th in free throw percentage, 25th in three-point percentage, and 31st in defensive rating (though they are elite at defending inside the arc).  Ultimately, I strayed from the models since I believe Cameron Brink is either the second or third best player in the tournament, depending on whether you think she’s better than Paige Bueckers.  Brink is a force on both ends of the court in the paint, is one of the best shot blockers in college, and has developed a solid passing game out of the post.  In addition to her, Stanford has Kiki Iriafen (junior, a breakout bigger forward who is great at finishing, rebounding, and help defense), Hannah Jump (redshirt senior, an excellent shooter off the ball), Talana Lepolo (sophomore, an efficient scorer who is a solid playmaker), Brooke Demetre (junior a versatile forward who has a smooth jumper), and Elena Bosgana (junior, a streaky shooter who had a breakout year as a defender).  I feel confident that they can go far because of their star power, chemistry, and paint defense.  While this will help them fare well against Texas, my fear is if they have to face Gonzaga, who is dominant from deep.

 

 

Other possible teams

USC

A lot of people will choose them, especially since they are a great team, but one issue not enough people discuss:  they are led by freshman star JuJu Watkins, who is a high-volume scorer, but is inefficient.  How often does this combination lead to a championship?  The answer is that it isn’t as often as people like to admit.  They are 19th in three-point percentage, 23rd in free throw percentage, and 39th in defensive rating.  In addition to Watkins, keep an eye out for McKenzie Forbes (redshirt senior), Rayah Marshall (junior), and Kayla Padilla (redshirt senior)

Gonzaga

The truth is that Gonzaga probably won’t make it all the way to the Elite Eight (where I have them), but I initially had them going to the Final Four.  The truth is that I think that they are probably a 3 seed who got penalized because the NCAA continues to act like conference tournaments the most important.  Effectively, they surrounded star big Yvonne Ejim with shooters who are elite (which is what makes me differ from my opinion about Purdue men’s program).  They are 2nd in three-point percentage, 3rd in free throw percentage, and 38th in defensive rating.  In addition to Ejim, keep an eye on Bryanna Maxwell (redshirt senior), Kayleigh Truong (redshirt senior), Kaylynne Truong (redshirt senior), and Eliza Hollingsworth (senior)

Texas

I’m not quite sure why I don’t believe in Texas, especially since they fared well in multiple metrics.  I think the aspect I am most concerned about with them is the fact that they are built around an inefficient freshman in Madison Booker (though she is a great defender).  They rank 12th in defensive rating, 13th in three-point percentage, and 52nd in free throw percentage.  Other players to watch include Aaliyah Moore (junior), Taylor Jones (redshirt senior), Shaylee Gonzales (redshirt senior), Shay Holle (senior), DeYona Gaston (senior), and Amina Muhammad (sophomore)

Notre Dame

Notre Dame is a good team, but they have an incredibly tough road ahead, especially being in the same region as South Carolina.  The other thing working against them is that their star, Hannah Hidalgo, is a freshman, which often doesn’t fare well for tournament success (though it is worth noting that she is more efficient than most freshman with that scoring load).  They are 13th in defensive rating, 13th in free throw percentage, and 23rd in three-point percentage.  Other players to watch include Maddy Westbeld (senior), Sonia Citron (junior), Anna DeWolfe (redshirt senior), Kylee Watson (senior), and KK Bransford (sophomore)

UCLA

While they have a lot of good players, there are two reasons I am concerned about UCLA:  they were not spectacular in the metrics, and they really struggled in the second half of the season after a hot start.  They rank 24th in defensive rating, 27th in free throw percentage, and 36th in three-point percentage, all of which are average to slightly above average, but none are spectacular.  Keep an eye out for Charisma Osborne (redshirt senior), Kiki Rice (sophomore), Lauren Betts (sophomore), and Londynn Jones (sophomore).

Ohio State

I think a lot of people will be lower on them because they were upset early in their conference tournament, but I don’t fully believe in them due to their metrics, and the fact that they were outrebounded this season.  They rank 21st in three-point percentage, 30th in defensive rating, and 45th in free throw percentage.  Keep an eye out for Jacy Sheldon (redshirt senior), Cotie McMahon (sophomore), Celeste Taylor (redshirt senior), Taylor Thierry (junior), and Rebeka Mikulasikova (redshirt senior).

LSU

I think most people will have LSU here because they won last year, but they’re not that efficient scoring, especially from 3; eventually, a champion has to be a reliable shooting team, which helped them in the tournament last year.  They rank 11th in defensive rating, 21st in free throw percentage, and 46th in three-point percentage.  Keep an eye out for Angel Reese (senior), Aneesah Morrow (junior), Flau'jae Johnson (sophomore), Mikaylah Williams (freshman), and Hailey Van Lith (senior).

 

 

Potential Upsets

In the past, I have given in-depth analysis about each of these.  I will not do this because most of them are going to involve a team that has struggled lately or is not good either offensively or defensively.  In general, I tend to trust hot shooting teams a lot more than I probably should since role player shooting travels better than role player defense among younger players.  I didn’t list other potential upsets, but keep an eye on Virginia Tech in the first round, as they could lose (more on them in the bonus).

1st Round Upsets

12 FGCU vs. 5 Oklahoma

11 Green Bay vs. 6. Tennessee

11 Middle Tennessee vs. 6 Louisville

10 UNLV vs. 7 Creighton

10 Richmond vs. 7 Duke

 

Metrics

These are the leaders in each metric.  I also included the teams in the First Four games.

FT%

  1. Creighton
  2. Richmond
  3. Gonzaga
  4. Green Bay
  5. Iowa
  6. Chattanooga
  7. UNLV
  8. Middle Tennessee
  9. Tennessee-Martin
  10. Stanford
  11. Florida State
  12. Virginia Tech
  13. Notre Dame
  14. Maryland
  15. Drake
  16. Marquette
  17. Rice
  18. Duke
  19. Eastern Washington
  20. Arizona
  21. Connecticut
  22. Louisiana State
  23. Southern California
  24. Louisville
  25. Maine
  26. Tennessee
  27. UCLA
  28. Utah
  29. California Baptist
  30. Syracuse
  31. NC State
  32. Holy Cross
  33. Michigan State
  34. Indiana
  35. Iowa State
  36. Norfolk State
  37. Nebraska
  38. Drexel
  39. Colorado
  40. Michigan
  41. Vanderbilt
  42. UC Irvine
  43. Kent State
  44. Oregon State
  45. Ohio State
  46. Kansas
  47. Columbia
  48. Florida Gulf Coast
  49. South Dakota State
  50. Alabama
  51. Princeton
  52. Texas
  53. Jackson State
  54. Auburn
  55. Baylor
  56. Oklahoma
  57. Fairfield
  58. West Virginia
  59. Portland
  60. Kansas State
  61. Mississippi
  62. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
  63. South Carolina
  64. Sacred Heart
  65. Texas A&M
  66. Marshall
  67. Presbyterian
  68. North Carolina

 

3P%

  1. Indiana
  2. Gonzaga
  3. South Carolina
  4. South Dakota State
  5. Iowa
  6. Richmond
  7. Chattanooga
  8. Iowa State
  9. Michigan State
  10. Marquette
  11. Tennessee-Martin
  12. Utah
  13. Texas
  14. Connecticut
  15. Oregon State
  16. UNLV
  17. Colorado
  18. Maryland
  19. Southern California
  20. Michigan
  21. Creighton
  22. Ohio State
  23. Middle Tennessee
  24. Notre Dame
  25. Stanford
  26. Alabama
  27. Virginia Tech
  28. Green Bay
  29. Marshall
  30. Nebraska
  31. Drake
  32. Baylor
  33. Fairfield
  34. Princeton
  35. Holy Cross
  36. Eastern Washington
  37. UCLA
  38. California Baptist
  39. Kansas
  40. Columbia
  41. Vanderbilt
  42. West Virginia
  43. Louisville
  44. NC State
  45. Norfolk State
  46. Louisiana State
  47. Syracuse
  48. Tennessee
  49. Duke
  50. Kent State
  51. Oklahoma
  52. Rice
  53. Arizona
  54. Florida Gulf Coast
  55. Florida State
  56. Kansas State
  57. Portland
  58. North Carolina
  59. Maine
  60. Presbyterian
  61. Drexel
  62. Auburn
  63. Sacred Heart
  64. Jackson State
  65. Texas A&M
  66. Mississippi
  67. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
  68. UC Irvine

 

Defensive Rating

  1. South Carolina
  2. Norfolk State
  3. Fairfield
  4. West Virginia
  5. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
  6. Connecticut
  7. Jackson State
  8. Florida Gulf Coast
  9. Kansas State
  10. Auburn
  11. Louisiana State
  12. Texas
  13. Notre Dame
  14. Baylor
  15. Eastern Washington
  16. UC Irvine
  17. Middle Tennessee
  18. Duke
  19. Texas A&M
  20. UNLV
  21. NC State
  22. Sacred Heart
  23. Mississippi
  24. UCLA
  25. Marquette
  26. Princeton
  27. Chattanooga
  28. Holy Cross
  29. Portland
  30. Ohio State
  31. Stanford
  32. Green Bay
  33. South Dakota State
  34. Presbyterian
  35. Drexel
  36. Alabama
  37. Maine
  38. Gonzaga
  39. Oregon State
  40. Southern California
  41. North Carolina
  42. Kent State
  43. Vanderbilt
  44. Marshall
  45. Rice
  46. Richmond
  47. Utah
  48. Louisville
  49. Colorado
  50. California Baptist
  51. Oklahoma
  52. Indiana
  53. Virginia Tech
  54. Columbia
  55. Drake
  56. Michigan State
  57. Syracuse
  58. Nebraska
  59. Arizona
  60. Michigan
  61. Florida State
  62. Creighton
  63. Kansas
  64. Iowa
  65. Tennessee-Martin
  66. Tennessee
  67. Iowa State
  68. Maryland

 

Bonus:  What to do with Virginia Tech

Last season, Virginia Tech was a 1 seed in the tournament and made it to their first ever Final Four, before running out of gas against LSU (I still remember watching that game and knowing they had lost it when they were up by 10 with 7 minutes left but were slowing down).  The issue they ran into at the end of the season is that they only had a 6-player rotation, and Taylor Soule got into foul trouble almost immediately, resulting in some difficult substitution patterns.  This year, they have 9 players who averaged at least 10 MPG with 6 averaging at least 15, which is a much more balanced distribution.  Their offense is largely centered around Elizabeth Kitley and Georgia Amoore, both of whom are talented scorers.  It was looking like they would be promising again, but then Kitley got injured and is now out for the tournament with a torn ACL.

While they stumbled into a victory against Miami, they blew a lead against Virginia and got crushed by Notre Dame.  They still have Amoore, who will likely put up other worldly scoring numbers, but there is one catch to that:  her shot selection is not the best, making her inefficient at times.  If she’s the lone target for defenses, I expect that she will have her struggles.  They will need somebody to step up in a big way, but that’s not how their offense has operated throughout the season.  Will they be able to win a round?  I would guess that they will.  Do they have what it takes to go further than that?  Honestly, I’m skeptical.  It really stinks since they looked so good for the whole season (I’m also a Tech fan so I’m biased), but unfortunately that might be how Kitley’s legendary college career ends.

 

 

Who do you think will win the tournament?  Let me know in the comments!



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