2024 NBA Playoff Predictions

After an exciting and dramatic season, the NBA Playoffs have finally arrived!  While I think there are two teams that will have their way as they get to the NBA Finals, I still think each round contains some very interesting matchups that could be a lot of fun to watch.

In this post, I provide my analysis, the x-factor (a non-star player who I think will make a massive impact, though I took some liberties with “star” with the Celtics since their team is loaded) for the team I have winning the round, and my predictions.  I did not make official predictions for the Play-In Tournament since I genuinely had no idea what would happen in each game; all predictions are after the results had been determined (or when it became obvious that the Heat would be the 8-seed late in their game against the Bulls).

 

First Round

East

1 Boston Celtics vs. 8 Miami Heat

Without Jimmy Butler, you would think that Boston would torch Miami in this series; that said, I think Boston will be lax and lose 2 games they shouldn’t out of lack of effort (in particular, I would guess Games 1 and 4).  There are a few things to watch in this series that I find interesting.  The most obvious is the play of Tyler Herro on both ends; it is pretty well documented how bad he is defensively, but he is also a lot worse without Butler on the court (his eFG% is 20 points worse when Butler isn’t on the court).  Miami needs either Herro to score a lot, or other players to step up.  Next, how aggressive will Bam Adebayo be?  While his scoring comes and goes at times, he has historically been more aggressive when facing Boston.  Next, how will Boston respond to zone defense?  Over the last few seasons, Miami has brought out a zone, and Boston looks lost about how to handle it.  To Boston’s credit, it’s not a normal zone (they tend to rotate zone setups, which is a really cool thing to watch), though I have no confidence that Boston could beat that given what they’ve shown at times.  Lastly, the biggest question of all:  is Miami actually good and didn’t try hard in the regular season, or are they just an average team?  Without Butler, I’d lean towards the latter.

X-Factor:  Without Jimmy Butler playing, Miami’s leading scorer will likely be Tyler Herro…or at least that will be the plan.  Herro is a great scorer, but he can be inconsistent at point.  I expect Derrick White will be the main defender against him, which is something that will make it more difficult for Herro.  White is one of the best defensive guards in the league, which will give Herro so much trouble.  On top of that, White has been a great offensive player, which will cause trouble for Herro, who is not a good defender.

Predicted Results:  Boston, 4-2

 

2 New York Knicks vs. 7 Philadelphia 76ers

After watching Philadelphia become the 7 seed, I have one serious question:  is Joel Embiid healthy?  He still looked pretty hobbled, which isn’t surprising since he just came back, but they need him in order to win.  On top of that, it’s not surprising for smaller guards to struggle against bigger defenses in the playoffs, which defines what the Knicks are.  At that point, do you trust Tobias Harris to take up the slack?  Maybe in a game or two, but not for the whole series.  As for New York, Maxey is such a defensive liability that I would literally just put Jalen Brunson into situations where he is going right at Maxey.  New York appears to be as healthy as they will be without Julius Randle, and they look like they’ll be annoying to face on both ends.  I also think it’s worth noting that when Embiid struggles, he often looks like he checks out; if that happens, don’t be surprised if Josh Hart is out rebounding him.

X-Factor:  While his role was uncertain at the start of the season, Donte DiVincenzo has created a clear role for himself with the team and will likely be their starting shooting guard in the playoffs.  He is such an amazing and versatile defender that I would start him on Maxey and not be afraid if he gets switched onto one of their wings, despite the fact that he is 6’4.  He will be able to slow Maxey down and give him some trouble.  On the other end, he is a great shooter and finisher, so you really can’t leave him open from anywhere.  He really is the perfect role player for this team.

Predicted Result:  Philadelphia, 4-2

 

3 Milwaukee Bucks vs. 6 Indiana Pacers

If Giannis were to be healthy to start this series, I would think this would be a very close series.  Additionally, if Tyrese Haliburton was playing like he was pre-All-Star break (and pre-injury), I would think the Pacers would smoke the Bucks in at most 5 games.  With all that said, it was announced that the Bucks were not planning on Giannis playing at the start of the series.  While there have been points where the Bucks have looked fine without Giannis this series, I don’t trust them without him in this series.  Their defense will absolutely rely on him, and Indiana has one of the best offenses in the league.  They also will play at a fast pace, which I expect will test their other reliable defensive player in Brook Lopez, who isn’t your fleet footed transition guy (for anyone asking why I left out Pat Beverley, I would invite you to look up his playoff numbers, particularly the fouls; it’s staggering how much he fouls in the playoffs).  The Pacers have a combination of a ton of shooting and a bunch of guys who play fast in transition, which will be a nightmare for Milwaukee without Giannis.  On top of that, I’m not sure who would be guarding Pascal Siakam if Giannis is hampered; he’d torch Bobby Portis and would test Lopez’s weaknesses.  I think the combo of Siakam and Myles Turner could absolutely thrive.  While Damian Lillard is an amazing scorer, there have been points where he played the worst defense of his career this season.  Who can Milwaukee hide him on?  While they obviously wouldn’t want him on Haliburton, putting him on Andrew Nembhard or Aaron Nesmith, there is a size disadvantage, as well as the fact that they could easily set screens every single time to put Siakam or Haliburton on him (at least I’d do that until Milwaukee adjusts).  Even though Haliburton hasn’t been as amazing as he was at the start of the season, he has looked better in April; it’s also worth noting that he played well in February before struggling in March.  I think Indiana would love Benedict Mathurin in this series, but should be the favorite entering it, especially with nobody knowing what is happening with Giannis.

X-Factor:  For most teams, when their superstar is on the bench, the team naturally plays worse, but that hasn’t been the case when Tyrese Haliburton has been out of the game for the last few months.  The big reason for this is because T.J. McConnell has developed into one of the best backup point guards in the game.  While he doesn’t jump off the page since he rarely takes shots outside of 16 feet and isn’t an elite athlete, he is such an efficient scorer who knows his places, and is also a smart playmaker.  In general, he understands this offense so well and is running it better than he ever has.  On top of that, he is a very good defender as well, which is an amazing benefit to have off the bench.  I think he is smart enough to give Milwaukee’s defense trouble, which will make it so they really don’t have a break defensively.

Predicted Result:  Indiana, 4-2

 

4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 5 Orlando Magic

Cleveland appeared to tank their final game of the regular season to face Orlando, which will have them facing one of the youngest teams in the NBA.  The issue is that Cleveland has been bad enough that I don’t think they’ll beat Orlando.  Since the All-Star break, they have been 12-17 while their defense has totally cratered.  In that stretch, Donovan Mitchell has dealt with an injury and has totally fallen off a cliff in that stretch while being unable to score 2’s.  Their two duos (guards Mitchell and Darius Garland, and bigs Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen) still don’t look like they know what to do with each other on the court.  They have played their best basketball when they only had one guard and one big, which is going to be problematic.  Even though Orlando is so young, their defense is so good and looks much more mature than their age would indicate.  The entire team prides itself on defense, even including players who haven’t been known for their defense throughout their career.  Their offense hasn’t been good this year, but I ultimately trust Paolo Banchero to get to the rim, even if he has struggled with efficiency this year.  Franz Wagner is also so smart offensively, despite struggling mightily from 3 this year.  I think Cleveland’s sputtering defense will have trouble defending 3’s, and while Orlando’s stars have struggled from deep, almost all of their role players are at least good shooters.  Unless I’m missing something, I don’t get why Cleveland would even want this matchup.  That said, Orlando is still young, so they’ll have a game or two where inexperience kicks in.

X-Factor:  The easiest way to slow down Cleveland is to have a great defender slowing down the hot hand out of the two guards.  Orlando has the perfect player to guard either of them in Jalen Suggs.  While his aggressiveness against opponents might be mistaken as being an irritant, his game is so much more than that.  He is such a high basketball IQ and is adept at forcing silly turnovers.  He is 6’5 and incredibly athletic, which will make it difficult for two smaller guards to be able to score on him consistently.  On top of that, he has developed his jumper, so you can’t even leave him open on defense.  I think Cleveland will be shocked by how much trouble they have against him and the rest of Orlando’s defense.

Predicted Result:  Orlando, 4-3

 

West

1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 8 New Orleans Pelicans

It’s possible that this series could have been different had Zion Williamson been healthy, though I still think the result is the same.  For a team that is so good on defense, New Orleans has multiple players who are poor defensive players, including C.J. McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas.  While McCollum and Brandon Ingram are both amazing scorers, I think both have their weaknesses and can be slowed down by the OKC.  I expect they will lose a couple of games that they should win due to their youth, but they can win this series easily.  The thing that I want to bring up is that this team is also more mature than most young teams; while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the young guy with playoff experience, everybody appears to know their role so well and wants to win.  Speaking of Shai, I expect he, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren will thrive offensively (Holmgren might have difficulties against Valanciunas) since they are the players on OKC who typically target inside the arc.  I think it could be an interesting matchup, though OKC is much better in my opinion.

X-Factor:  A major part of this series depends on if Josh Giddey can make 3’s.  While he has shot well since the All-Star break, a big part of that is due to shooting 41.4% in March; in April, he was down to 23.5%.  While there is a lot he can do on the ball, that skillset doesn’t fit with the Thunder.  If he is unplayable offensively, that drastically changes what OKC can do on defense with their length.

Predicted Result:  Oklahoma City, 4-2

 

2 Denver Nuggets vs. 7 Los Angeles Lakers

Do I really have to write a preview on this?  I get that the Lakers had 47 wins this year, but they really are average in terms of stats like net rating (+0.6).  Even if Anthony Davis and LeBron James are both healthy and both D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reeves are amazing, I don’t see how they topple Denver.  Denver has the length to pester the Lakers (who have good size as well).  On top of that, who guards Jamal Murray?  I think he’ll torch Russell, and I don’t think Reeves is good enough to slow him down.  Denver has also been amazing defensively, especially as everyone appears to be so much better on that end.  While Denver’s bench has been criticized in basketball circles, which Lakers bench players can be trusted on both ends of the court?  There are some bench players I don’t trust on either end (Spencer Dinwiddie is one of them).  Of course, I didn’t even mention Nikola Jokic, who the best way to stop is to win the lottery.  James and Davis are good enough that they’ll stumble into a win early in the series, but that’s it.

X-Factor:  To get out of the West, Denver will need their length to be utilized, especially off the bench.  When playing the Lakers, they need both length and experience, which is why Christian Braun will need to play at his best.  While a lot has been made about how Braun didn’t make the jump that many expected, he is still a versatile 2-way player.  He is 6’6 and can switch onto both wings and guards, which will allow him to be thrown onto several players for at least one possession (I specify it this way since I don’t trust him guarding LeBron for most of the game).  He also is a good shooter, which will help out their already hilariously impressive spacing.  He can be so valuable for Denver in this series, especially since he can be annoying against several one-way players off the Lakers’ bench.

Predicted Result:  Denver, 4-1

 

3 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. 6 Phoenix Suns

I think this series could be the most exciting of the first round.  Phoenix is likely favored by most due to the star power, but Minnesota has proven to be a success story by virtue of continuity.  Anthony Edwards has emerged as a 2-way superstar who clearly wants to be one of the best players in the game.  After a cold season together last year, he has amazing chemistry with Rudy Gobert and has praised him on several occasions; Gobert has also been the best defender in the game this season, which is a far cry from where I thought he was after last year.  Karl-Anthony Towns is a poor defender (the lone player I would consider bad defensively), but he has found his places offensively so well that he can’t be ignored.  They have an amazing core that complements them, including guys like Mike Conley, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Nickeil Alexander-Walker (a statement I never thought I would say, but I’m thrilled I am saying), and Kyle Anderson.  Phoenix has dealt with so many injuries that I’m not sure if the fit will work.  I get that a Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal combo should work offensively, but how about defensively?  I question what Grayson Allen, Jusuf Nurkic, and Eric Gordon can do defensively at this point.  I think Minnesota has more chemistry and a better lineup overall, so I think they will win.  That said, a dominant offense will stumble into a win or two even if their defense is atrocious.

X-Factor:  Even though I think he’s an amazing player who is an All-Defense candidate, Jaden McDaniels is not considered a star by most.  The only reason he is not the best defensive player on this team is because he happens to be a teammate of one of the best defenders in the game in Gobert; on many teams, he would be their best defender.  He is a really big wing and has the athleticism to guard just about anybody.  I would have him guard Kevin Durant if possible, but if they have to do something with Towns, I would trust him on Devin Booker.  If they really wanted to go crazy, they could keep switching and have him and Anthony Edwards rotate between guarding Booker and Bradley Beal.  Either way, whoever he's guarding will probably struggle.

Predicted Result:  Minnesota, 4-3

 

4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. 5 Dallas Mavericks

If we knew if Kawhi Leonard was healthy, I would say this could be a tossup.  That said, it’s worth remembering that the last time he was injured and questionable in a series was last year, when he tore his meniscus and never announced until after the playoffs; prior, in 2021, he tore his ACL and never announced it until after the series.  My point with bringing this up is that it is not out of the realm of possibility that he is dealing with a major injury.  While it’s possible that Paul George and James Harden can do damage, their track record has been a bit spotty in the playoffs in recent years.  I just don’t see how they can possibly replace Kawhi in this situation; Norman Powell is the cleanest fit offensively, but I don’t see it being clean.  On the other hand, both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have been on another planet this year, with Doncic especially being on a tear over the last couple months.  While there isn’t a definitive trio that are certain to start alongside them, they have like 6 or 7 players who make sense and can play when healthy.  I think their depth is a little better than that of L.A., and if Kawhi isn’t there, it’s possible that Dallas has the two best players in the series.  That said, if Kawhi is able to play, this all changes.

X-Factor:  Ever since he first got playing time in Miami in 2018-19, Derrick Jones Jr. has been an amazing finisher and defender.  While only 6’5, he is strong enough and athletic enough to switch onto players of variety sizes; while he is best on wings and forwards, he can also switch onto a guard or big if needed during a possession.  I also believe that he has continued to improve as a cutter over the past few seasons, which has caused him to warrant a role despite being a poor shooter.  However, this year his shooting has changed:  he is shooting a career high 34.3% on 3 attempts per game.  He will still be treated as a non-shooter, but taking the additional 3’s is a big development in his game.  I expect he will start and defend Paul George.

Predicted Result:  Dallas, 4-2

 

 

Second Round

East

1 Boston Celtics vs. 5 Orlando Magic

I don’t think there’s that much to say about this series other than that Boston should win easily.  Orlando is a good team, but they don’t have the experience or offense to win.  Boston has made a habit of playing down to opponents, so I expect that Orlando will still win a game or two, but Boston should sweep this series.

X-Factor:  Orlando gave up a good number of 3’s, and that’s how the Celtics live.  I would argue that their most consistent shooter is Sam Hauser, who shot 42.4% from deep on 5.9 attempts per game.  While he doesn’t shoot a ton at the rim, he is also smart at cutting, which makes it difficult when you’re beat.  On top of that, he’s not a great defender, but he has great size, so he is at least okay by default.  When he gets going, it opens up so much space and creates utter chaos; the best part of him being on the court is that he almost never consistently misses his 3’s.

Predicted Result:  Boston, 4-1

 

2 New York Knicks vs. 6 Indiana Pacers

I genuinely believe that this is not a good matchup for Indiana.  While Indiana has some versatile offensive players, I feel like New York has an option to match up against each player.  This is also the matchup where I think Jalen Brunson, who isn’t a horrible defender, but is their weakest on that end, can be hidden the best by putting him on either Andrew Nembhard or Aaron Nesmith (neither of whom are bad defenders, but neither are world beaters).  I think OG Anunoby will especially be valuable in this series since I think he could defend either Pascal Siakam (who I expect will be his primary target) and Myles Turner.  I think Siakam will need to be the best Indiana player in the series for them to win since I expect it will be a challenge for Tyrese Haliburton against the size and athleticism of the Knicks.

X-Factor:  With the size and skill of Siakam and Turner and the injuries Mitchell Robinson has dealt with, Isaiah Hartenstein will have to be incredibly valuable.  He has looked amazing on both ends this season and is probably better at defending outside the paint than Robinson is, which will help New York in defending a bit on switches.  He is a great finisher and is also a decent passer as a big.  I’m not sure how many minutes he will get, but he provides a level of versatility in this matchup that could be very valuable.

Predicted Result:  New York, 4-1

 

West

1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 5 Dallas Mavericks

I expect a lot of people will favor Dallas in this matchup, and I expect that they will put up a great matchup, but I feel like OKC will win this one.  The most obvious thing to point to with Dallas is that I don’t think they have a consistent lineup that makes sense against OKC; while Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are locks, is P.J. Washington, Derrick Jones Jr., and one of the bigs really their best option?  In this lineup, they might be able to leave everyone except Doncic and Irivng open when shooting 3’s.  This connects to my other concern about them:  outside of their rim running bigs, they pretty much live and die on the 3 and are great at shooting it…when it’s Luka or Kyrie.  The two of them alone shot nearly 40% of their 3’s and shot 39.2%, while the rest of the team shot around 35.4%, as several of their players had streaky shooting seasons, including Washington and Tim Hardaway Jr.  If Doncic runs out of gas with his jumper at the end of this series, that will make it almost impossible to win with their style of offense.  While OKC is balanced, they are efficient from just about anywhere.  While I could see Chet Holmgren having some struggles against their size, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams have been torching everyone from 2, and I don’t think Dallas’ rim protectors will be able to do anything about it.  That said, I still think this will be a close series.

X-Factor:  Something most people don’t talk about is that OKC is that their best wing defender, Lu Dort, is a bit smaller than you’d expect.  While he is a great defender and one of their best ones (though Shai has created a case for himself in that regard), I wonder if he would be able to guard Luka consistently.  Luka will tower over him, but Dort is an amazing athlete who is also extremely physical.  Will Dort be able to prevent Luka’s drives to the rim?  If so, he is their best option on Luka.

Predicted Result:  Oklahoma City, 4-3

 

2 Denver Nuggets vs. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves

I think this matchup could be a very interesting one, especially if both teams make it out of the first round pretty quickly.  This is the one team that I would say Rudy Gobert could not be played off the floor; even if Nikola Jokic is torching him, I’d still be okay putting him on Aaron Gordon and keeping him in the paint for when Gordon was ready to drive (something worth watching is how uncomfortable Gordon appears to take 3’s, which he appeared to shake off a couple seasons ago).  That said, I think Minnesota’s offense is going to totally sputter against Denver.  I think Denver’s defense has answers against Anthony Edwards and Mike Conley, especially with the size and length that they have (I still think Edwards will do pretty well in games, but he’ll be too focused on scoring in some games he’s struggling).  Offensively, it’s impossible to stop Jokic, and I expect Jamal Murry will target Conley as much as he possibly can (who’s not a bad defender, but is one of their weakest links at this point).  That said, I am curious who Karl-Anthony Towns will guard; I’d just throw him on Jaden McDaniels, but I also think there’s a case to be made that they should just throw their worst defender on Jokic since he won’t struggle with anybody on him.

X-Factor:  While he’s not a starter, I would try to have Peyton Watson guard Anthony Edwards whenever they share the court.  Watson is still young and raw, but he has amazing size, is a freak athlete, and has proven to be a good defender already.  He will still get beat since he’s still getting comfortable with the NBA game, but he has been able to catch up and block a shot or cause a miss that you wouldn’t expect that he’d be able to do.  I think Edwards will still score against him, but Watson would at least make it difficult to score.

Predicted Result:  Denver, 4-2

 

Conference Finals

East

1 Boston Celtics vs. 2 New York Knicks

I think this will be Boston’s biggest challenge in the Eastern Conference…which means they will end up smoking them.  I think Boston’s length will be a bit too much for New York.  That said, New York does have a lot of similarities to them in terms of having a deep team with several versatile players.  I expect that Boston will target Jalen Brunson on many possession, but I think they’ll be confident enough in their offense that they would go at anyone (maybe even OG Anunoby).  I would expect Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to do amazing since Anunoby can only guard one of them at a time.  Don’t be surprised if Boston plays around with a 2-big lineup, especially if Horford is guarding Anonoby or Bojan Bogdanovic.

X-Factor:  While there are multiple players who will be used to defend Jalen Brunson, I think Jrue Holiday is going to be the most important in this situation.  Derrick White will be guarding him for a lot of the game, but they could easily switch Holiday onto him.  This is a massive swing because it will make it so Brunson can never get a break.  Holiday is able to absolutely smother players that are smaller than him, which is part of what makes him such an elite defender.  Another aspect of his game that has been new this year:  he has been one of the best from the corner 3 this season, which now means you can’t even think about leaving him open.  While he often struggled from the field in the playoffs due to taking on the toughest defensive assignment, he will likely be better this year since he won’t have to do that.

Predicted Result:  Boston, 4-1

 

West

1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 2 Denver Nuggets

I honestly believe this is the most difficult matchup for OKC that they could possibly face in the West.  No matter who you have on the court, I think Jokic will have an absolute field day, especially since I think Chet Holmgren does not match up well against him.  While I think Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will play well, I think he will have his struggles at points against Denver’s length.  OKC’s best odds of winning would be to have Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams attack Jamal Murray and then go right to the midrange upon beating him (this is a strategy that will be natural since it doesn’t stray too far from their offensive style).  That said, for OKC to win, Josh Giddey will either need to his shots or be removed for someone who can; when he’s not shooting well, he is a horrible fit for this team since they don’t need his ball handling given who he’s playing with.  For Denver to win, all I think they need to do is stick with their game plan, and dominate the paint.  That said, I could see it going 6 or 7 games; both teams are so good.

X-Factor:  The biggest swing factor on Denver throughout the entire playoffs is Michael Porter Jr., and I think his defense will be the biggest factor here.  While he has improved his defense significantly (he was so horrible defensively when he started that even being a below average defender would be huge improvement), he is still inconsistent on that end.  He is incredibly long and athletic, which will give a lot of players trouble against him.  As for the starting lineup, who would he be guarding?  The natural answer would be Josh Giddey since he isn’t that good of a shooter, but I also think you could throw him on Lu Dort if you want Nikola Jokic more in the paint (I would put Jokic on Giddey and Aaron Gordon on Chet Holmgren).  Porter is significantly larger than Dort, so he should be okay if Porter can stay with him.

Predicted Result:  Denver, 4-2

 

 

NBA Finals

1 Boston Celtics vs. 2 Denver Nuggets

I hate that I am predicting Boston in this series.  That said, they usually play better against opponents who they don’t view as below them, so ironically, they might play much better in this series.  Their shooting and defense has been so consistent this year.  Boston lives and dies on the 3, as almost half of their field goal attempts are from deep, so you would normally think that is risky; that said, they have so many great shooters that there aren’t many games that they have several players who can’t hit shots.  That said, Denver is one of the few teams that have the length to keep up with them.  I think that Michael Porter Jr. is a massive swing piece depending on how he plays defensively; if he does a good job on defense, he might be able to get away with guarding Jaylen Brown, which would allow Aaron Gordon to focus on Jayson Tatum, which could be a wild matchup.  If he struggles, I’m not even sure what the best matchup would be for Porter; maybe Jrue Holiday is the best one, though I don’t love it.  I honestly expect Denver’s matchups to change by the day depending on who is up to the task, which could be interesting to see.  Denver is also an excellent offensive team, so I’m also excited to see how they matchup against Boston’s length, especially Jamal Murray.  I think the biggest thing for Boston is seeing how they handle Jokic’s defense; I expect they will try to stretch him out or exploit picks where he drops.  Expect a lot of picks with Tatum and Brown as the ball handler where they take the midrange shot on a Jokic drop.  I hope this series happens and is as interesting as I think it will be.

X-Factor:  There is no realistic way to slow down Nikola Jokic.  As such, I would normally say not to even bother trying to stop him and to instead slow down Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.  That said, Boston has an irritant to face him off the bench in Al Horford.  Horford certainly isn’t what he once was due to age, but he is still a versatile defender who pairs well against a player of Jokic’s skillset.  He is also an amazing shooter, which will give Jokic no breaks when Porzingis, another great shooter, is on the bench.

Predicted Result:  Boston, 4-2

 

 

Who do you think will win the championship?  Let me know in the comments!