2024 WNBA Season Predictions
After an exciting offseason and draft process, the 2024 WNBA season is upon us! In this post, I included predictions for the standings, playoffs, and awards, while also including an analysis of each team. In the analysis, I also included an X-Factor who is a role player who could make a big impact for the team. As a note, I discussed players who might have been waived from teams since I wrote most of these predictions and analyses prior to the final wave of cuts that occurred; my apologies about any confusion upon reading these and not seeing any players in the roster.
Standings
1. Las Vegas Aces
2. New York Liberty
3. Seattle Storm
4. Connecticut Sun
5. Atlanta Dream
6. Phoenix Mercury
7. Minnesota Lynx
8. Indiana Fever
9. Dallas Wings
10. Washington Mystic
11. Chicago Sky
12. Las Angeles Sparks
Playoffs
1st Round
1 Las Vegas Aces beats 8 Indiana Fever 2-0
2 New York Liberty beats 7 Minnesota Lynx 2-0
3 Seattle Storm beats 6 Phoenix Mercury 2-1
4 Connecticut Sun beats 5 Atlanta Dram 2-1
Semifinals
1 Las Vegas Aces beats 4 Connecticut Sun 3-0
2 New York Liberty beats 3 Seattle Storm 3-2
Finals
1 Las Vegas Aces beats 2 New York Liberty 3-1
Awards
I’ve previously commented on how I find it really stupid to
predict awards prior to the season; that said, I’ll do what I always do and
predict them while rarely revisiting my predictions or even remembering what I
predicted a month later. As a note, the only award that has voters vote for multiple players is MVP; that said, I still included a top-3 for each, though I expect Rookie of the Year won't have multiple players receive votes unless something goes wrong for the expected winner.
MVP
1. A’ja Wilson, LVA
2. Nneka Ogwumike, SEA
3. Breanna Stewart, NYL
Also possible: Kelsey
Plum, Alyssa Thomas, Sabrina Ionescu, Chelsea Gray, Rhyne Howard, Brittney Griner,
Napheesa Collier, Aliyah Boston
Rookie of the Year
1. Caitlin Clark, IND
2. Cameron Brink, LAS
3. Rickea Jackson, LAS
Also possible: Kamila
Cardoso, Jacy Sheldon, Aaliyah Edwards, Angel Reese
Defensive Player of the Year
1. Alyssa Thomas, CON
2. A’ja Wilson, LVA
3. Napheesa Collier, MIN
Also possible: Betnijah
Laney, Kiah Stokes, Natasha Cloud, Natasha Howard, DeWanna Bonner, Alysha
Clark, Aaliyah Boston, Breanna Stewart, Nneka Ogwumike, Allisha Gray, Brittney
Griner, Elizabeth Williams, Azura Stevens, Brittney Sykes, Teaira McCowan,
Cheyenne Parker, Dearica Hamby
Sixth Woman of the Year
As a note, there’s almost always one player I predict for this award who ends up being ineligible since they start too many games.
1. Alysha Clark, LVA
2. Kayla Thornton, NYL
3. Sophie Cunningham, PHO
Also possible:
Crystal Dangerfield, Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Mercedes Russell, Natisha
Hiedeman, Brianna Turner, Jordan Horston, DiJonai Carrington (I think she’ll
start, but she could end up being a finalist if she comes off the bench)
Most Improved Player
I often get this badly wrong (most notably, I declared the 2018-19 NBA season’s race would include a close race between Gary Harris and Jaylen Brown, but both regressed badly that year), so take any predictions with a grain of salt, and I apologize for jinxing any of your favorite players.
1. DiJonai Carrington, CON
2. Marina Mabrey, CHI
3. Morgan Bertsch, PHO
Also possible: Jordan
Horston, Diamond Miller, Crystal Dangerfield, Haley Jones, NaLyssa Smith, Ezi
Magbegor, Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Alanna Smith, Sug Sutton
Coach of the Year
1. Becky Hammon, LVA
2. Noelle Quinn, SEA
3. Sandy Brondello, NYL
Also possible: Tanisha
Wright, Stephanie White
Analysis
1: Las Vegas Aces
The champions again brought back their core, as their top-6
players who played in the playoffs are back.
While Candace Parker announced her retirement late, their main team is
still back. At the center of it all is
2-time MVP and 2-time reigning Defensive Player of the Year, A’ja Wilson, who
is amazing at both ends and has been an incredibly efficient scorer ever since
Becky Hammon took over and played a style that really benefits her game. Typically, their next best scorer and the
player to go with is Kelsey Plum, an amazing scorer who can shoot from anywhere
and has developed into a good playmaker and is getting more reliable as a
defender. While she’s always been
immensely underrated, Chelsea Gray is the perfect fit for them, as she is an
exceptional playmaker, great defender, and has been a reliable and good shooter
for them. The biggest swing for them has
been Jackie Young breaking out as a star, as she is a great shooter and
versatile defender who has been able to defend 3’s for them, allowing them to
play smaller lineups. They also have
Alysha Clark, the reigning 6th Woman of the Year who is the perfect
versatile 3-and-D player for this team, Kiah Stokes, an excellent defensive
big, Kierstan Bell, a versatile defensive guard, and rookies Dyaisha Fair, an
undersized guard who is an aggressive scorer, and Kate Martin, a versatile
consistent forward. Their team should be
amazing again, and I don’t see that changing unless there’s multiple freak
injuries.
X-Factor: With
Candace Parker announcing her retirement, several minutes have opened that
weren’t expected to be there. The most
logical selection to play a bigger role is Kierstan Bell. While she has struggled with efficiency
throughout her career, she has proven to be an excellent and versatile
defender. She is bigger for a wing,
which will give her more versatility when Vegas opts to play small. That said, she needs to be better at hitting
shots from everywhere; while they won’t need her to score a lot given the
number of stars and adept scorers they have, she can realistically be kept
totally open at this time.
2: New York
Liberty
After being one of the best teams in the WNBA last year, New
York returned a good chunk of their core and should be as competitive as they
were last year. Reigning MVP Breanna
Stewart is still one of the best players in the WNBA, as she is one of the best
scorers, shooters, and defenders; she is also a great rebounder and good passer
as well. The added stars helped Sabrina
Ionescu shoot better than ever from deep, and she was still a triple-double
threat while making more of an impact defensively; it is worth noting that she
was atrocious from 2 last season. After
struggling to find a role on offense all season, Jonquel Jones came into her
own during the playoffs when she shot at an unreal rate from 2 and dominated in
the paint; I expect her to be much better than she was during the regular
season. Despite just turning 35,
Courtney Vandersloot is still one of the best playmakers that the WNBA has ever
seen, and is still able to star for the team.
They also have Betnijah Laney, an elite perimeter defender who had her
most efficient scoring season ever, including from 3, Kayla Thornton, a very
good defender who has a streaky jumper, Ivana Dojkic, a great shooter on a
training camp deal who could make it on the roster, and several rookies, with
the most likely to make the roster being Marquesha Davis, an athletic guard
with defensive upside, Esmery Martinez, a versatile defensive forward, and
Jessika Carter, an efficient traditional big.
I think their bench is a bit rough, but their starting lineup is among the
best in the league.
X-Factor:
While New York’s starting lineup is excellent again, their bench is a
bit iffy, especially on offense. While
they have a bunch of rookies to be cheap options, they largely prioritized
defensive versatility, which will be an issue when their stars are faced with
tons of double teams. The easiest
solution to this is if Kayla Thornton can shoot better. While she shot well from 2 last year, she
only shot 31.3% from deep. There is some
precedent here: as between 2020-2021,
she topped 34.5% from deep in both seasons, though her career percentage is
32.1%.
3: Seattle Storm
After the first season without Breanna Stewart was a
difficult one, Seattle is hoping to return to their winning ways with a new
super team. Star guard Jewell Loyd is a
great scorer, but the addition of two new stars should make the game easier for
her and help with her efficiency. The
newly signed Nneka Ogwumike is one of the best and most underrated forwards in
the game, as she is an all-around skilled player who can do just about
everything at a fairly high level. After
missing last season due to reasons related to her pregnancy, newly signed
Skylar Diggins-Smith, an incredibly skilled ball handler, playmaker, and
scorer, is ready to start a new chapter after a rough final couple years in
Phoenix both on and off the court. Even
though many won’t focus on her and will call Seattle a big-3, Ezi Magbegor is
an amazing defensive big who had a breakout year offensively last season,
corresponding to her sudden development of a 3-pointer. Other players on their team include Sami
Whitcomb, a great shooter who thrives off the ball, Mercedes Russell, a
consistent defensive big with nice size, Jordan Horston, a versatile wing who
looked amazing defensively as a rookie, Dulcy Fankam Mendjiadeu, a solid
defensive big, and rookie Nika Mühl, a solid playmaker and competitive
defender. It is entirely possible that
this doesn’t work out, but I expect each of their stars want to win so bad that
they are willing to work together and sacrifice. There will likely be some growing pains, but
I think they’ll figure it out in the end.
X-Factor:
While I expect there will be several players who try for the fifth
starter spot and that multiple lineups will be used, I expect Sami Whitcomb
will get the spot. That said, I hope
Jordan Horston gets a good amount of minutes due to her defensive versatility
and size, something that will open up more interesting defensive options. While Horston struggled offensively as a
rookie, I think that she could have a better year now that she has a year under
her belt; I also think that she’ll be even better defensively.
4: Connecticut Sun
A lot of people are still really high on Connecticut since
they have their 3 star players back, but I’m lower on them since I thought
their offense was better last season after injuries occurred. Alyssa Thomas is no longer one of the most
underrated players in the WNBA after being the runner-up for MVP; she is one of
the best playmakers and defenders in the league, though I could see a lack of
spacing causing some difficulties for her.
Her fiancé, DeWanna Bonner, is an amazing defender who is also never afraid
to take a big shot (which is how she got her nickname, but she isn’t as
efficient as I’d hope). Brionna Jones is
back after missing the second half of last season with an injury; while she is
an excellent player on both ends of the court in the paint, I thought their
offense flowed better without her. They
also have DiJonai Carrington, the runner-up for 6th Woman of the
Year who is a great athlete and good defender whose jumper improved, Moriah
Jefferson, a good playmaker and shooter who I wish would shoot more 3’s,
Tiffany Mitchell, a guard who is inefficient at scoring but is a solid defense,
Rachel Banham, an excellent shooter, Olivia Nelson-Ododa, a great defensive
center who is a good finisher, Queen Egbo, a young big with defensive upside, Tyasha
Harris, a solid defender and playmaker who shot at a career best rate last
season, and rookies Taiyanna Jackson, a good traditional big, and Helena Pueyo,
who could be a solid 3-and-D player.
While I still expect them to be good, I think their offense will be much
worse; many of their key players are not good shooters, which will limit not
only their spacing, but also Thomas’s impact (incidentally, I think she’ll have
a worse season than she did last year).
Even though Jones is a good player, I thought their offense is better
without her.
X-Factor:
While Connecticut’s bench has several players who are good shooters,
their starting lineup will be largely devoid of that. While the trade for Moriah Jefferson gives
Connecticut another playmaker, and more importantly gives them a good
shooter. The issue is that Jefferson
doesn’t take many; while she has made just shy of 40% of her career 3’s, she
averaged 2 attempts a game throughout her career and had a career high last
year of just 2.7. With her struggling
from 2, she needs to take more 3’s to optimize Thomas’s playmaking, as last
season showed that Connecticut is at their best with Thomas at the point guard.
5: Atlanta Dream
This might come as a surprise to some, since many have them
lower than other teams, but Atlanta was a young playoff team last season, and I
think they’re going to be even better this season. Rhyne Howard came into the league as a high-volume
scorer, but has continued to improve as a shooter, playmaker, and defender to
the point that she could make an All-WNBA team this season. Already an amazing defender, Allisha Gray had
a breakout year offensively, and even if the 2-point percentage isn’t legit,
the shooting consistently has been.
Cheyenne Parker shocked everyone and was also named an All-Star, as she
had an exceptional season as a finisher, rebounder, and defender. While not necessarily a star, Atlanta just
acquired Jordin Canada in a sign and trade, who just had a breakout season
offensively; even if the 3 isn’t real, she is still an amazing defender and
playmaker who is so smart. They also
have Nia Coffey, a consistent 3-and-D forward, Tina Charles, a former MVP who
didn’t play last season, but is still a solid defender and talented offensive
player, Crystal Dangerfield, a former Rookie of the Year who is looking to
rediscover her way as an aggressive scorer, Aerial Powers, a solid defender
with a streaky jumper, Naz Hillmon, a solid defender with some upside as a
finisher, and Haley Jones, who is raw but showed upside on defense and as a
playmaker as a rookie. I wouldn’t be
surprised if their offense has difficulties, but I expect their defense will be
amazing. I wouldn’t even be surprised if
they end up sneaking as high as the 3 seed.
X-Factor:
Atlanta has a lot of players who look like they will be really good, but
the biggest help would be if Crystal Dangerfield bounces back and plays like
she did as a rookie. She was the Rookie
of the Year in 2020, but has since struggled to find a role. Her usage has shrunk significantly since then
to the point that she is almost predominately an off-ball player, but she has
struggled with finding any consistency with a jumper. While she is a solid playmaker, I think she
could help Atlanta with a focus on cutting when off the ball, something I think
Atlanta’s offense can embrace.
6: Phoenix Mercury
Note: This was
written prior to the announcement of Brittney Griner’s toe injury, which will
keep her out for the start of the season.
This could drop them into the 7-9 range.
Phoenix is coming off an absolutely miserable season, but
there is optimism that they can make the playoffs again. That said, as good as their top-6 could be,
their team starts looking thin after that.
After being detained in Russia for a year, Brittney Griner looked good
last year on both ends; while there were glimpses of rust, especially with her
endurance later in games, she was still an All-Star level player, and I think
she’ll be better this year. She’s my favorite
active player in the W; when she’s in the zone, it is the most comical and
entertaining thing to watch since she can make absolutely everything and is an
elite defender. In a win-now move,
Phoenix traded for Kahleah Copper, who has been a great scorer and shooter who
thrived on Chicago’s championship team in 2021.
Diana Taurasi is a legend and will get the star treatment, but she
really has declined significantly; while she is still a good shooter and
playmaker, she’s declined defensively that I wonder if she should still be
starting (she is turning 42 this year, for crying out loud). The team also has the newly signed Natasha
Cloud, an amazing defender and playmaker, though an inefficient scorer, Sophie
Cunningham, a sharpshooter with great size, Rebecca Allen, a great shooter who
is a good defender and has great size, Sug Sutton, a good playmaker with some
shooting potential, Morgan Bertsch, a good shooter who has defensive upside,
though I wish she would shoot more, and rookie Charisma Osborne, an excellent
defender but inefficient scorer. I think
their best bet is to have Griner, Cloud, and three other guards/wings who are
good shooters, something that I think would make the most sense given their six
best players (they would likely also have Copper, Taurasi, and either
Cunningham or Allen). I think the could
make it work due to their size, but there could be struggles, especially if
they’re playing a team like New York.
Still, if one of their key players gets injured, they could be in
trouble.
X-Factor:
While I expect them to not play a traditional power forward much since
their wings are big enough that they could probably make it work alongside
Brittney Griner, the player with the clearest path to play that role is Morgan
Bertsch. She shot very well from 3 last
year, has upside defensively, and wasn’t bad at finishing inside the arc for a
rookie. That said, she appeared hesitant
to shoot at many points, resulting in her attempting fewer than 10 shots per 36
minutes. For her to get playing time,
she has to be aggressive enough to attempt the open shots, something I can’t
promise she would do now.
7: Minnesota Lynx
I honestly believe that the teams from 7-9 can go in any
order. Even though there’s risk with
Minnesota here, especially with their lack of star power after their top player
and their lack of continuity, I am banking on development from multiple younger
players and the new pieces fitting in.
Napheesa Collier is one of the best players in the WNBA, and she is an
amazing scorer, finisher, defender, rebounder, and a good playmaker. Even though she isn’t really a star at this
point, Kayla McBride quietly had one of her best seasons, as she had her second
highest eFG% due to an amazing season from 2 and had her highest scoring season
since her top-10 MVP finish in 2018, while playing amazing defense. I could see Courtney Williams having her best
scoring output since her All-Star year in Atlanta; she is a great shooter and
defender who filled into the role of being the lead playmaker in Chicago last
year very well. The biggest swing will
be how Diamond Miller plays; while she struggled with efficiency, she showed
glimpses in scoring, playmaking, and defending.
Otherwise, this team can expect contributions from Natisha Hiedeman, a
great 3-and-D player who can also be a playmaker at times, Alanna Smith, who
had a massive breakout year last year as a defender, finisher, and rebounder,
Dorka Juhasz, a great finisher, defender, and rebounder with the size to play
the 5, Bridget Carleton, a solid shooter, and rookie Alissa Pili, who has
proven to be an efficient scorer from anywhere on the court. It’s entirely possible that they flame out,
but I think the team makes so much sense together.
X-Factor: One
of the biggest questions I have for this team is wondering who Alanna Smith
is. Is she the player who led the league
in 2P% last season while defending at a high level and rebounding well, or is
she the player who never topped 16 MPG while never finding a consistent role,
and focusing more on 3’s than 2’s? Last
year was easily her lowest 3-point rate, which is likely a major part of why
her FG% and eFG% were so high (she is an atrocious 3-point shooter, yet often
attempts for 3’s than 2’s). Even if the
2-point shooting is unsustainable, I would expect the defense would be,
especially alongside a great defender in Collier.
8: Indiana Fever
I feel like the potential results for this team could be all
over the place; I feel like their range could easily be anywhere from 3rd
to 9th, but there are a lot of questions on this team. After her rookie year, Aliyah Boston has
proven that she is going to be the best player on the team; she was an incredibly
efficient scorer and exceptional defender already. This is an unpopular opinion, but I believe
their second-best player this year will be Kelsey Mitchell; she is an amazing
shooter and scorer who has also developed as a solid playmaker as needed. The biggest questions of how this season will
go have to be revolving around Caitlin Clark; while she is an amazing shooter,
scorer, and playmaker, she is an atrocious defender, hasn’t played with another
star, and might need time to adjust to the league, all of which could play a
role in the first month, at least. They
also have NaLyssa Smith, a talented forward who looked good at points last year,
Katie Lou Samuelson, an amazing shooter who is back this season after having a
baby, Erica Wheeler, an incredibly steady playmaker and good defender, Kristy
Wallace, a good shooter with some defensive upside, Lexie Hull, who is still
raw but has shown glimpses defensively and is improving on offense, Grace
Berger, a good shooter with nice size for a guard, and rookie Celeste Taylor,
an excellent perimeter defender who I expect will struggle as a rookie. We’ll see what happens with this team, though
I expect they’ll squeak into the playoffs.
X-Factor: People
will not like me saying this, but there will be points where Caitlyn Clark will
struggle (this happens with just about every rookie), which makes Erica Wheeler’s
presence so valuable. While she is an
inefficient scorer, she is a consistent playmaker and reliable defender. Given Indiana’s lineup and Wheeler’s shooting
limitations, I expect she will come of the bench, but I would be interested in
also playing her with Clark to help Clark improve her game off the ball as
well, which could make her even more dangerous.
9: Dallas Wings
After an amazing year last season, things were looking so
bright for Dallas, but then it was announced that Satou Sabally will be out for
a good chunk of the season (potentially until the Olympic break). This really is a game changer for them since
she had a breakout year as an incredibly efficient scorer who was versatile on
both ends; I would argue that she was easily their best player last year. Their top scorer will still likely be Arike Ogunbowale,
who is an impressive high-volume scorer who is improving as a playmaker and
defender, though she is still incredibly inefficient. Natasha Howard was someone who I thought fit
very well last year, as she thrived as a defender and finisher, though her shot
(which is streaky) wasn’t falling from deep; they will need her to take on an
even bigger role without a healthy Sabally.
They also have Teaira McCowan, a big who is great at finishing at the
rim and defending, Kalani Brown, an amazing scoring big off the bench, and a
bunch of largely unproven young players; we’ll see if any of Jacy Sheldon, Maddy
Siegrist, Stephanie Soares, Lou Lopez-Senechal, and Veronica Burton can hit (what
stinks for Soares and Lopez-Senechal is that they were both injured and missed what
would have been their rookie years, so that would have helped Dallas out). Sabally’s injury just opens up so many
questions for a team that really wasn’t that deep to begin with, and now they’ll
rely on several unproven players to have to play a starting role, which is
something I’m not sure if they’re equipped for.
X-Factor: Veronica
Burton has struggled thus far to find a role in the league since she has been
an inefficient scorer and has had to play largely off ball after being used to
an on-ball role in college. This is her
third season, and this really has to be the time where the former 7th
pick in the draft can make it in the league.
The good news for her is that there is a clear path for her to earn a
role, especially since Dallas’s bench is pretty devoid of experience. The good thing for her is that she has shown
glimpses of good defensive play, so consistency on that end could at least give
her playing time.
10: Washington
Wizards
In a surprising twist this offseason, Elena Delle Donne
announced that she was stepping away from the WNBA for this season, which
leaves Washington without their star player; on top of that, they were
atrocious in the stretch where Delle Donne was out last year, which sets them
up poorly. They also are without their
former starting guard Natasha Cloud, which will be difficult. They still do have Ariel Atkins, who is an
excellent defender and has consistently been one of the best perimeter
defenders in the league; she is also an excellent shooter. Brittney Sykes has always been an amazing
defender, but she also had a breakout year as a scorer last year. They also have Shakira Austin, a talented big
on both ends who could have an improved season this year, Myisha Hines-Allen, a
skilled 3-and-D forward who is coming off a bad season offensively, Karlie
Samuelson, who had a breakout year as a shooter, scorer, and defender, Shatori
Walker-Kimbrough, an talented 3-and-D guard, Stefanie Dolson, a talented
shooter who can score efficiently from anywhere, Didi Richards, who looked good
on both ends two seasons ago as a rookie and is trying to rediscover that, and
two rookies in Aaliyah Edwards, a smart and competitive forward who can make an
impact instantly and Kaylynne Truong, a really impressive shooter and good
playmaker. While it’s possible they fall
further, I expect they’ll miss out on one of the bottom 2 seeds due to them
having more experience than some other teams lower. I’d be shocked if they ended up making the
playoffs; something seriously bad would have to happen to two other teams for
that to occur.
X-Factor: Was
Karlie Samuelson’s season last year an oddity, or is that the new norm? She easily had her best 3P%, 2P%, and defensive
season, while also easily playing a career high 888 minutes (her previous
career high was 206). I’m not sure the
2P% is sustainable, but she doesn’t shoot that many of them anyways. The promising thing about her jumper is that
she shot 38.7% from deep in 2021 and was an amazing shooter in college, so I
don’t think that her topping 40% from deep out of nowhere was as much of a
fluke as it might appear, even if it took her a long time into her career to
find the minutes.
11: Chicago Sky
Note: This was
written prior to Cardoso’s injury was announced, which could cause her to miss
4-6 weeks. I don’t see this making a big
difference in the standings.
Now just 3 seasons removed from their surprise championship
run in 2021, it is clear that Chicago is now at the start of a rebuild. While they lost several players from the team
that limped their way into the playoffs last season, the biggest one was
trading Kahleah Copper away for the third pick in the draft. Their main remaining contributor from last
year is Marina Mabrey, who is a great shooter and an improving defender and
playmaker; while she likely won’t be a superstar, she is still only 27 and could
be a quality player by the time they’re rebuilding, while also likely having a
big year this year. The biggest focus
will be their two first round rookies in Kamilla Cardoso and Angel Reese. Cardoso is an amazing finisher on offense in
the paint and a good paint defender who will probably have a solid rookie year;
while I think there will be limitations wither her play at the end of games, she’s
a good enough player that this isn’t the worst problem to have and build
around. While I think Reese could have a
tougher season offensively, I think her basketball IQ is so unbelievably high
that she will be able to play a role defensively immediately; even if Cardoso
has struggles defensively, I think Reese will be able to make up for some of
those. They also have other players who
will play a role, including Elizabeth Williams, an amazing defender who has
shown glimpses as a good finisher, Brianna Turner, a versatile defender who is
a great finisher when she shoots (incidentally, 4 of their 5 best players could
be bigs, either centers or power forwards), Isabelle Harrison, a versatile
defender who is a solid forward, Diamond DeShields, a high volume scorer who has
struggled the last couple years that she was healthy, Lindsay Allen, a consistent
playmaker who is good at finding bigs, Dana Evans, an improving guard who was a
finalist for 6th Woman of the Year, Michaela Onyenwere, a forward
who has some potential on both ends, and rookie Brynna Maxwell, who is a really
good shooter. This year should be all
about development; if a team gets desperate and needs a big, it wouldn’t
surprise me if they move one of their veterans during the year, but they’ll
also allow their bigs to develop as slowly as they need. This will be a rough year, but there is at
least a framework for where to start.
X-Factor: Michaela
Onyenwere was the 2021 Rookie of the Year in a pretty weak rookie class (at this
point, the best players in this class might be her, DiJonai Carrington, and her
teammate Dana Evans, the latter two of whom were second round picks). Since then, she’s bounced around the league
and has had her inconsistencies, especially as a scorer. While I still think she has upside as a
shooter, she has consistently only shot between 30-33% from 3 and 42.5-47.5%
from 2 every year, topping at 32.7% from 3 and 47.4% from 2 in her rookie year.
While there have been glimpses
defensively, she has never been able to find any sort of consistency on that
end either. I think this could be a
really big year for her to prove whether or not she can find a role as a very
good consistent player in the league and what her contract could be.
12: Los Angeles
Sparks
I often joke that a team that is not trying to win and is
playing players that nobody has heard of is using a “who’s who of…who?” A lot of casual fans will have no idea what on
earth L.A. is doing this year, especially now that the Ogwumike sisters are no
longer under contract (it was a fun run, especially with Nneka starring for
them). The focus of them will have to be
developing their two top-4 picks, Cameron Brink and Rickea Jackson. Brink is an amazing shot blocker and improving
passer who also has upside as a shooter, though she is an impressive finisher
in the paint; the biggest question will be if she can figure out how to not
foul as much, especially silly fouls, something I’m not as optimistic
about. Jackson is an impressive scorer
who is a great finisher and I think will be better as a shooter and defender in
the W. I think both will have their struggles,
but they both have upside. I have
intentionally discussed a star or potential star veteran on each team; it
really is slim pickings here, so I’ll discuss their best role player
instead. Azura Stevens is a talented
3-and-D player who had a tough year offensively last year because she couldn’t
hit shots from either 2 or 3, but she is normally an incredibly efficient
scorer while one of the more versatile defenders in the league; it wouldn’t
surprise me if she still struggles with efficiency, but she should be an
amazing defender. The team also has
Dearica Hamby, who struggled offensively last year after having a baby, but she
is an efficient scorer who is still an amazing defender, Layshia Clarendon, a steady
guard coming off of their best season from an efficiency standpoint, Kia Nurse,
a solid off-ball guard who struggled last year coming back from injury, Lexie
Brown, a good shooter and efficient scorer, Stephanie Talbot, a good shooter
and efficient scorer with size, Aari McDonald, a streaky shooter who is an
improving playmaker, Monique Billings, a good defender who has struggled
finishing the last couple years, and Julie Allemand, a good shooter who is struggled
last year and lost minutes. Overall,
L.A. has a bunch of players who are solid players that competitive teams would
love to have as their 5th-7th best players. The issue is that L.A. doesn’t have anyone who
would be a top-3 player on any team (other than the other bad teams). I expect it’ll be a few tough years, but they
at least have two players in Brink and Jackson who they could start their
rebuild with.
X-Factor: For
most of her career, Layshia Clarendon was a poor shooter and inefficient finisher,
yet was still an All-Star in 2017 when they (as a note, Clarendon used she/her,
they/them, and he/him as pronouns as recently as 2020, when they came out as
non-binary, but other publications over the last few years have used they/them
as pronouns, so I will use the same) abruptly averaged 6.6 APG (her next most
prior to 2020 was 3.5). Suddenly, they
hit 34.1% of their 3’s in 2020 and topped 50% from 2 for the first time at the
age of 29. The following year, they again
topped 50% eFG%, something they also did in 2023. It might be tough to be efficient this year
given the lack of natural scorers who aren’t rookies, but their biggest impact
might be setting everyone up, especially the younger players. In 2021, they averaged 5.4 APG, and averaged
3.4 last season when there weren’t a ton of options who could score last
year. At the age of 33, I think
Clarendon could play among the best basketball of their career.
Who do you think will be good this year? Any teams/players you’re looking forward to? Let me know in the comments!
Comments
Post a Comment