10 Polarizing NBA Draft Prospects + My Unofficial Big Board

The 2024 NBA Draft is likely to be a strange one, especially since there is no consensus top player in the class, and that there is a lot of varying opinions about each prospect.  This draft contains several players who are polarizing for different reasons.  In this post, I discussed 10 polarizing prospects; I chose the 10 I did to varying reasons of polarizing opinions.  I also included an unofficial top-30 big board.

 

Isaiah Collier

Collier entered his freshman season as a top prospect, but struggled mightily throughout the season.  He has upside as a playmaker, has a nice handle and is incredibly strong.  That said, there are a lot of concerns about his game.  In particular, he is an inconsistent shooter who has never shot well from the line, has poor shot selection, is a bit reckless with passes, didn’t measure great at the combine, and isn’t that great of an athlete.  I personally am not worried about the recklessness of the passes, especially since that’s not unreasonable to expect from someone his age.  I think the handle and strength are nice bonuses.  I’m rarely worried about a freshman’s shot selection since I’d rather someone that age be aggressive and there to be a need to dial it back than to have to ramp it up because they’re resistant.  I am concerned about the combination of the shot, athleticism, and size.  While he is strong, it’s tougher to expect someone to be able to immediately utilize their strength to get paint looks (I personally think he relies too much on strength rather than skill).  On top of that, the fact that he didn’t measure too impressively makes it a little more difficult once he’s in the paint against NBA athleticism and size.  The biggest swing regarding his scoring comes down to his shot; I don’t believe in his jumper since free throw shooting tends to be a better projector of shooting ability than 3-point percentage does (it’s not quite that simple, but that’s the general idea behind it).  Collier has never been a good free throw shooter and has been streaky from 3, so I question how he will score in the NBA in his first few years.  While he has been invited to the Green Room at the Draft, I currently have him 36th on my unofficial board; I think the playmaking provides upside, though I don’t think the scoring will make him good enough to be a starting guard.

 

Rob Dillingham

Dillingham had a successful freshman season and is high on several draft boards, but limitations also keep him further down on several others.  He is aggressive on both ends, has impressive scoring ability, is a good shooter, and is a very skilled playmaker and passer.  The biggest issues come down to his size; he is on the smaller end of height, but is also incredibly slender, which will always limit his upside as a defender and finisher at the rim.  In most drafts where there is a smaller guard who looks to be drafted, I tend to not be high on them since I generally consider smaller point guards to be among the most replaceable players in the league.  We have seen several teams struggle to build a great defense when they have a small guard who is a consistent target, even if they have a high-level point guard offensively (a great example is the Hawks with Trae Young).  In order for me to be convinced that a small guard is worth taking with even a lottery pick, I need to be convinced that they are an impressive offensive player (like Young; even though I wasn’t a huge fan of him in the draft, I still thought falling outside the lottery was way too extreme).  Despite my usual objections, I am very high on Dillingham; I have compared him to De’Aaron Fox with his shot creation and playmaking ability (it is also worth noting that Fox was my favorite player in the 2017 Draft, and I thought there was a clear path for him to become an All-Star).  He is currently 6th on my unofficial board; while I don’t believe he will be successful as a defender or finisher at the rim, I think his playmaking and shooting give him All-Star potential.

 

Kel’el Ware

In many drafts, there is a player who has all the tools in the world and has unbelievable upside, but there are questions about motor and work ethic; Ware is this player.  He has amazing size, is a terrific defender, a great rim protector and shot blocker, is a strong finisher, has proven to be a good shooter in stretches, and appears to be versatile for a big man.  The biggest question for him has always been his motor and work ethic; some other concerns are his shooting consistency (he was a poor free throw shooter this year, which will likely translate to struggles from deep initially), the fact that he still chases blocks (this is normal for young big men though), his overall consistency, and the fact that he is still really raw.  In most situations, I’m not worried about a player who doesn’t have the best motor if they have incredible tools and haven’t had any legal issues (Ware has not had any that I know of).  While there are situations where this doesn’t work out, two recent examples of players with these concerns who fell in the draft and panned out incredibly well are Robert Williams in 2018 and Jaden McDaniels in 2020 (it is worth noting that I viewed both of them as lottery picks in their respective drafts, even viewing Williams as a top-10 worthy player).  I currently have Ware 10th on my unofficial board; my biggest concerns are the fact that he is so raw for a sophomore (though Williams was also) and his jumper not translating, but I think the tools will translate as a defender and a finisher if he is in a situation with a good playmaker.

 

Nikola Topic

Unfortunately, there almost always seems to be one player who is injury prone who enters the draft and ends up falling; this year, Topic could be that player.  He is admittedly my favorite player in this draft (note that this is sometimes different than who I think is the best player in the draft, such as last year, when I thought Victor Wembenyama was the best player in the draft and Amen Thompson was my favorite player), so I tend to favor him high.  He has amazing size for a point guard (which is my favorite skillset to build around), is a talented playmaker, is a better athlete than he is given credit for, is aggressive at getting downhill, and has great vision.  The biggest concern is that he is dealing with an ACL injury; he will likely miss most, if not all, of his rookie year.  The other biggest concern I have is defense, which could improve with effort, though I think part of it is some weaker fundamentals.  His jumper is the swing skill, as he is currently a poor shooter; that said, his free throw percentage is so high and his current shot selection isn’t always the best, so I think he will become a league average shooter.  In general, I tend to be more liberal with being willing to draft players with injuries.  I think the best example is Michael Porter Jr. in 2018; when he fell to 14th, I thought it was insane since I had said that I would have considered taking him as early as 4th.  In particular, when he went one pick after Jerome Robinson (who I was very low on), I came up with what I consider to be the best way to describe my view of injuries with draft picks:  would you rather have a player who might give you 100 games under contract due to injuries, or a player who might give you 100 games under contract because they are not good enough to make the NBA.  Topic is still 1st on my unofficial board (it is worth noting that he has “fallen”, as he went from being an obvious player in a tier of his own to being grouped with the other players in the top-4); I believe his jumper will develop to be close to league average, so I buy his vision, size, and downhill ability translating.  I also think he has the highest upside in this draft.

 

Matas Buzelis

There are often forwards or wings that are described by many as ‘skilled players’, which is a way I’ve heard Buzelis described.  He has a high IQ, is a solid athlete, has upside as a passer and playmaker, and has upside on the defensive end, with the potential for him to be versatile on that end.  That said, he is inconsistent, has a very low floor, doesn’t have a go-to skill on offense, and has not proven shooting upside in most years (despite having a reputation of being a good shooter due to one year in high school).  I used to fall in love with ‘skilled players’, but now I have veered the opposite way due to what I now interpret this phrase as:  they don’t have a skill that they can lean on in the NBA.  While some players have multiple skills that they are good at that they can lean on, I honestly don’t know what Buzelis is good at right now; even if you cite his high IQ, that isn’t something that will keep him on the court.  I currently have him 26th on my unofficial board; while there is upside due to his size and potential as a passer and defender, I don’t understand what people see in him that makes him have a floor that puts him as a potential top-10 pick.

 

Johnny Furphy

I’m honestly not sure if I’ve ever seen a player in a draft who is like Furphy, and opinions of him are all over the place.  He is an amazing dunker and 3-point shooter, which is ideal since those are often the best shots for a player to take if they can hit 3’s (not always the case, but this is true on average).  That said, I don’t think he does anything else well; he’s not a good playmaker, I think his handle is sloppy, he isn’t a good defender and looks lost often on that end, he doesn’t appear to be that great of an athlete, and I think he will struggle with the ball when contested.  For me, I typically am lower when a player isn’t that amazing of an athlete; I know that there are some poor athletes who end up finding a role in the NBA, but the skillset has to be so amazing for them to overcompensate the lack of athleticism (think of Joe Ingles or Kyle Anderson).  He is super raw, so I expect there is a mindset that a team can shape him into something interesting, but I have serious concerns this will work with Furphy.  I currently have him 46th on my unofficial board; I don’t think he has the skillset to pan out in the league, though the shot could give him a chance to stick around.

 

Ryan Dunn

There have been so many instances of a player being an amazing offensive player and poor defender that a player like Dunn who is the total opposite feels like a rarity.  He could be the best defender in this class, as I think he has the length, athleticism, and versatility to end up defending any position in glimpses; he also has an amazing IQ and could end up being a contributor on that end shortly into his career, which is rare for rookies.  The issue is that he could be among the worst offensive players in this class; while he is a good finisher in transition, I don’t think he can do anything well offensively otherwise.  While there was a point where a player like this would be so valuable and have a massive role, but in recent years, defensive philosophies and IQ have risen to a point where players who are negatives offensively can often be played off the court (even in the playoffs last year, Josh Giddey, who is more skilled than Dunn, fell out of OKC’s rotation).  I currently have him 38th on my unofficial board; while the defense is undeniable, I have questions about if he can stay on the court for extended stretches.

 

Kyle Filipowski

Filipowski might have the widest range of players who have been invited to the Draft, and I think it all depends on views of the jumper.  He is a nice passer, has a solid handle, and plays hard on both ends.  That said, he isn’t a good athlete, doesn’t appear that mobile, is an atrocious defender, is often bullied against bigger defenders, and struggles finishing against bigs.  While his supporters believe how he’ll translate, the biggest question is the shot; I’ve been torn on it, but I’m not certain I fully believe it.  Even if it translate, I have concerns about how much of a liability he’ll be on the defensive end; while some might point to playmaking bigs who struggle defensively like Alperen Sengun or even Domantas Sabonis as a roadmap to success, both of them are much stronger than Filipowski, so they can at least survive at times.  I do love a good playmaking big, but I also don’t love his mobility on either end.  I currently have him 51st on my unofficial board; I don’t think he will pan out in the NBA on a consistent basis, but he’s skilled enough that it might be worth a spot on a G-League roster or a 2-way deal to see if he improves his defense.

 

Bronny James

While there are often children of former NBA players, very few end up getting drafted due to their name; some would argue that this could happen with Bronny James.  Opinions of James are all over the place, as there are scouts who claim he’s underrated and others who say that there is no reason that he should be drafted.  He is a skilled player who is a great athlete, has a high basketball IQ, has playmaking upside, and projects to be a great defender.  That said, he cannot shoot, is an inefficient scorer, and ended up measuring shorter than expected at the Combine.  I think that his game will translate better to an NBA game than many have said if he pans out, but I have questions about his size and scoring.  I think he would end up being a combo guard for at least his first couple seasons in the NBA.  In particular, he measured at 6’1.5 with a 6’7.25 wingspan, which is solid when considering the wingspan, but he will easily end up against guys who are 6’5 with 6’9 wingspans (or around that), which is massive compared to him; as such, I think he will struggle to do anything offensively against these types of players.  I currently have him 57th on my unofficial board; while he could be a role player in the NBA, I tend to shy away from players who are inefficient everywhere on the court and don’t project to be good shooters, not to mention my concerns about his size.

 

Zach Edey

Despite having an immensely successful college career, Edey might end up being the epitome of an incredible college player who doesn’t pan out in the NBA.  Edey is an impressive scorer in the paint who has also shown glimpses of passing and screening.  That said, he is pretty bad outside the paint on both ends, especially defensively, where I think he will struggle with in the NBA; while agile, he isn’t fast, which will cause him to struggle in up-tempo systems.  The biggest question is how his paint defense will be; while he was a smart drop defender in college due to positioning, size, and IQ, NBA athletes are a different breed, as is the coaching.  I have often considered big men who can’t do much outside the paint to be players who should not be drafted since this type of player is often easily replicable, but I think Edey is different due to his ability to dominate in stretches as well as his passing upside.  I don’t fully buy the defense translating, so I think he will be best suited as a third big man who can dominate 15 minutes per game.  I currently have him 44th on my unofficial board; while I think there is a role for him, I tend to favor upside more than floor.  That said, there’s a very good chance he ends up in the top-20 in this draft.

 

My Unofficial Top-30

In the past, I have alluded to who I thought the top players were, but I have never released my list.  The reason for this is because I don’t do this full time, so I felt like it wasn’t necessary to add my opinion.  That said, I have seen so many people say things about this draft being a weak draft that I want to list some players I am excited for.  On top of that, hearing so much focus be on Bronny James (who I have as a late second round pick, as mentioned in the previous section) or finding that many people (including some “experts”) consider Zach Edey to be one of the best players in this draft when he doesn’t fit the modern style of the NBA made me realize that it might not be a bad thing for me to include this.  This is an unofficial list and is always subject to change (I literally changed the order while writing this, so it’s never totally static).  In this section, I will only list players and not discuss what I like/dislike about them because I have discussed most of these players at some point during the process, and, assuming each of them get drafted (which isn’t a lock), I will write a little bit about each of them at that time as well.

As is the norm with most lists of top players, my rankings tend to be a reflection of what traits I tend to favor in a player.  My favorite trait to target is having a big playmaker, whether it is someone who is a big point guard, a wing with nice size who has playmaking ability, or a big who has passing potential (though I favor the first two in the list); I would argue that this is a more important skill to build a team around than shooting.  I also tend to be irrationally high on freakishly athletic raw big men; I can point to many examples where this worked out (Jarrett Allen and Rob Williams) and many where it didn’t (Mo Bamba is the most notable), but you end up with a lot of makes and misses when you’re a volume shooter who tends to love almost all of them.  I also value athleticism, defensive versatility/upside, size, IQ, shooting, willingness to shoot, finishing ability, and scoring efficiency (not necessarily in that order).

Something worth noting is that there are a few players late in the first round that I project will be role players or bench players who likely won't be finishing games.  While some would hear that and try to use that as evidence that this is a weak draft, this often happens with drafts; if you were to do a redraft of almost any draft, the end of the first round often contains players who had a couple solid seasons but mostly have limitations.  I'm sure there will be at least one player who I'm wrong about, whether it's someone I didn't list here or someone I have too low, but that's part of the fun of this process; I hope that I'm too low with many players because that means that they have successful careers and are more fun to watch.

 

  1. Nikola Topic, Crvena Zvezda (Serbia), 18, PG, 6’5.75, 203 lbs., 6’5.5 Wing
  2. Stephon Castle, UConn, Freshman, 19, PG/SG, 6’4.5, 193 lbs., 6’9 Wing
  3. Alexandre Sarr, Perth Wildcats (Australia), 19, PF/C, 6’11.75, 224.2 lbs., 7’4.25 Wing
  4. Ron Holland, G-League Ignite, 18, SF, 6’6.5, 196.8 lbs., 6’10.75 Wing
  5. Reed Sheppard, Kentucky, Fr, 20, PG/SG, 6’1.75, 181.6 lbs., 6’3.25 Wing
  6. Rob Dillingham, Kentucky, Freshman, 19, PG, 6’1, 164.2 lbs., 6’3 Wing
  7. Zaccharie Risacher, LNB Pro A (France), 19, SF, 6’8.5, 194.6 lbs., 6’9.5 Wing
  8. Dalton Knecht, Tennessee, RS Sr, 23, SG, 6’5.25, 212.2 lbs., 6’9 Wing
  9. Jaylon Tyson, California, Jr, 21, SF, 6’5.5, 218.2 lbs., 6’8 Wing
  10. Kel’el Ware, Indiana, So, 20, C, 6’11.75, 230 lbs., 7’4.25 Wing
  11. Donovan Clingan, UConn, Sophomore, 20, C, 7’1.75, 282 lbs., 7’6.75 Wing
  12. Yves Missi, Baylor, Fr, 20, C, 6’10.25, 229.4 lbs., 7’2 Wing
  13. Tidjane Salaun, LNB Pro A (France), 18, PF, 6’8.75, 217.4 lbs., 7’1.5 Wing
  14. Carlton Carrington, Pittsburgh, Fr, 18, PG, 6’3.75, 194.8 lbs., 6’8 Wing
  15. Ja’Kobe Walter, Baylor, Fr, 19, SG, 6’4.25, 197.6 lbs., 6’10 Wing
  16. Jared McCain, Duke, Fr, 20, PG, 6’2, 203.2 lbs., 6’3.5 Wing
  17. Harrison Ingram, North Carolina, Jr, 21, SG, 6’5.25, 233.6 lbs., 7’0.25 Wing
  18. Kyshawn George, Miami, Fr, 20, SG, 6’7, 208.8 lbs., 6’10.25 Wing
  19. Baylor Scheierman, Creighton, RS Sr, 23, SG, 6’6.25, 201.6 lbs., 6’8.25 Wing
  20. Bobi Klintman, Cairns Taipans (Australia), 21, PF, 6’8.5, 212.2 lbs., 6’11 Wing
  21. Tristan da Silva, Colorado, Sr, 23, PF, 6’8.25, 216.8 lbs., 6’10.25 Wing
  22. Cody Williams, Colorado, Fr, 19, SF/PF, 6’6.5, 178.4 lbs., 7’1 Wing
  23. Oso Ighodaro, Marquette, RS Jr, 21, PF, 6’9.5, 222 lbs., 6’11 Wing
  24. Devin Carter, Providence, Jr, 22, SG, 6’2.25, 193 lbs., 6’8.25 Wing
  25. Tyler Smith, G-League Ignite, 19, PF, 6’8.75, 223.8 lbs., 7’1 Wing
  26. Matas Buzelis, G-League Ignite, 19, SF/PF, 6’8,75, 197 lbs., 6’10 Wing
  27. Justin Edwards, Kentucky, Fr, 20, SF, 6’6, 209.4 lbs., 6’10 Wing
  28. Jalen Bridges, Baylor, RS Sr, 23, SF, 6’6.75, 213.4 lbs., 6’10 Wing
  29. Trey Alexander, Creighton, Junior, 21, PG, 6’3.25, 187 lbs., 6’10.5 Wing
  30. Tyler Kolek, Marquette, Sr, 23, PG, 6’1.25, 196.6 lbs., 6’2.75 Wing

 

There were 13 players that were in consideration for the last 2 spots; in order, the other 11 players in consideration were Pacome Dadiet, Melvin Ajinca, Cam Christie, DaRon Holmes, Kevin McCullar, Isaiah Collier, Ulrich Chomche, Ryan Dunn, Juan Nunez, Ariel Hukporti, and Nikola Djurisic.

 

 

Who are some of your players in this draft?  Do you disagree with me about any prospects?  Let me know in the comments!

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