2024 WNBA Playoff Preview

After a fun and exciting season, the WNBA Playoffs have arrived!  In this post, I predict how I think the playoffs will go; for each series, I have an x-factor, who is a role player on the winning team that I think could have a major impact on the series.

 

First Round

1 New York Liberty vs. 8 Atlanta Dream

I don’t have a ton of analysis on this series other than New York should steamroll Atlanta.  Atlanta struggled due to injuries, inconsistencies, and a horrible offense, while New York was excellent all season.  Sometimes you don’t have to dive into something closer than that to realize that Atlanta probably won’t win a game.

X-Factor:  What is Courtney Vandersloot’s role at this point?  The fit was clear last season when Sabrina Ionescu could have a little less pressure on her by playing off-ball, but she’s been dominant on the ball this year.  On top of that Vandersloot has struggled with her jumper and has regressed a bit defensively, limiting her to her lowest minutes per game, as well as the fewest minutes out of all starters.  She is still an elite playmaker and a great off-ball mover/cutter, but I’m not even sure if a starting role makes sense for the team.  This series will give her a little bit of a breather and an opportunity to see if she can improve her shot during the playoffs.

Prediction:  New York, 2-0

 

2 Minnesota Lynx vs. 7 Phoenix Mercury

I expect that most of the focus will be on the fact that Minnesota has been amazing since the Olympics and that Phoenix has been atrocious and stumbled their way to this point, but the truth is that Minnesota has looked like a Finals contender long before then while Phoenix doesn’t look like a team that can escape the first round.   Napheesa Collier is legitimately one of the best players in the WNBA and is a threat on both ends of the court, which will make her such a difficult matchup, especially with only Kaleah Copper looking like she’s in her prime on Phoenix’s side.  I think Collier and Kayla McBride will be too difficult to stop for Phoenix, who has multiple players that I would encourage opponents to target on offense.  The 3-point shooting will also be too difficult to tame, even if Alanna Smith’s shot continues to be as bad as it was after the Olympic break.  I don’t see how Phoenix wins a game.

X-Factor:  While Courtney Williams has been an amazing playmaker for Minnesota, her shot has been a bit errant at points, and she has also been unwilling to attempt 3’s at points.  Phoenix has a bunch of guards and wings who either will take up a lot of offensive responsibilities (such as Kaleah Copper) or are not consistent defenders (like the rest of their starters), but Britney Griner is still a great rim protector.  I expect she will settle into the midrange game that she has consistently favored, but I would implore her take the open 3’s that she can easily generate against poor defenders.  This will make it less likely for Griner to be able to defend her.  That said, even having her take a midrange shot will likely be far enough away from Griner for it to not be too contested.  Either way, she could have a massive series depending on her scoring ability.

Prediction:  Minnesota, 2-0

 

3 Connecticut Sun vs. 6 Indiana Fever

I expect most people will have Indiana beating Connecticut because Caitlin Clark is on Indiana, though non-WNBA experts (including many sports talking heads who just arrived to the sport) might try to cite what some experts will bring up, which is their offense and their play since the Olympic break.  That said, I think it should be considered a sizeable upset if Indiana wins due to Indiana’s youth, defense, and Connecticut’s size/defense.  In general, Clark’s prototype of a player tends to struggle against big, physical teams, and Clark has struggled against Connecticut mightily, where she went a combined 20-51 from the field (39.2%) and 12-35 from deep (34.3%) while having 15 assists to 25 turnovers.  While I think Tiffany Mitchell will play well, I also think Aaliyah Boston will struggle against the big trio of Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner, and Brionna Jones.  I expect Indiana will win one game since young, fast teams typically pull off one win in any given series (I’d predict it will be Game 1), but it genuinely should be viewed as a big upset if Indiana wins the series.

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X-Factor:  One thing that has given Connecticut trouble all season is their efficiency on offense, which makes their in-season trade for Marina Mabrey a perfect fit.  While she has always been a good shooter who was a bit too willing to shoot (causing her efficiency to be underwhelming), she has been shooting at an unreal clip since the trade.  Her ability to create shots both on and off the ball has been an exciting thing to watch, especially as she is paired with the best playmaking teammate of her career in Alyssa Thomas.  On top of it all, she has also played harder than ever on defense, making it tougher to take her off the court.  Against a team with a lot of offense in Indiana, Connecticut needs Mabrey to have a great series.

Prediction:  Connecticut, 2-1

 

4 Las Vegas Aces vs. 5 Seattle Storm

This series could be very interesting if both teams play up to their potential due to their stars’ names, but I’m not as optimistic about Seattle.  It could be interesting to see how Seattle defends A’ja Wilson between Nneka Ogwumike and Ezi Magbegor (I would have the pair either rotate or do a double team since I’m comfortable leaving Kiah Stokes open, though I expect Seattle will have Ogwumike play most of her minutes guarding Wilson).  While the rest of their stars have been inconsistent this year compared to usual (largely due to Chelsea Gray’s struggle), Vegas still has a strong, deep team.  Seattle’s top-4 are talented, but after that, there is a massive drop off (though the addition of Gabby Williams has been massive defensively), and I genuinely don’t trust anyone outside their top-4 offensively; even there, Magbegor is limited offensively, and both Skylar Diggins-Smith and Jewell Lloyd have struggled with efficiency.  I think Vegas will end up winning in 3 with Game 3 being a blowout.

X-Factor:  Last year, Alysha Clark was so valuable due to her ability to provide amazing minutes off the bench.  This year, with Chelsea Gray injured at the start of the year and struggling upon return, Tiffany Hayes became crucial to still have a key bench player.  She willingly took on a lesser role offensively after thriving in it last year in Connecticut, and she is having one of her most efficient years.  She has a knack for hitting shots from anywhere on the court and is a brilliant player both on and off the ball.  On top of that, while her usage is the lowest it has been in her career, but her turnover rate is insanely low as well.  She also has been consistent with her passing when she does have the ball.  I think Hayes will be a massive help in this series since Seattle doesn’t have any depth like this.

Prediction:  Las Vegas, 2-1

 

 

Semifinals

1 New York Liberty vs. 4 Las Vegas Aces

If everyone is playing up to their potential, this could be an amazing series.  That said, the biggest questions have to start with what Chelsea Gray is at this point; if she’s not a high-level starter in this series, Vegas is toast.  I expect New York will end up playing Kiah Stokes off the court in this series which will mean that Vegas will be forced to play a smaller lineup that has played a lot of minutes over the last two seasons but will likely get outrebounded.  When you’re facing New York, every little advantage is important.  I think Jonquel Jones will have a massive series in offensive rebounding.  Once Stokes is off the court, expect Breanna Stewart to have an amazing series as well.  The one I’m wondering as well is who Kesley Plum is guarding; I’d throw her on Courtney Vandersloot as much as possible, though I think switches will be difficult.  On top of that, what happens when Vandersloot is off the court?  She will likely be targeted a lot.  Wilson’s dominance is enough to win at least one game, though I don’t see Vegas pulling an upset off.

X-Factor:  I expect that the first round will be a cakewalk for New York, but the second round could feel like a Finals series given the fact that there are 5 teams who I think could contend (though I don’t think Seattle is as legitimate of a threat compared to the other 4).  After missing a significant portion of the season due to injury, Betnijah Laney has returned to mixed results, though she has looked more comfortable as the season went on.  While she can just feel it out in the first round, New York will need her performing at her peak in the latter rounds.  I think she is so valuable due to her ability to be a playmaker, ball handler, and on-ball threat as a whole despite having a reputation at this point of being more of a 3-and-D player.  She is so talented and completes the team when she is healthy.

Prediction:  New York, 3-1

 

2 Minnesota Lynx vs. 3 Connecticut Sun

I honestly think this is just a really bad matchup for Connecticut.  Minnesota is a great 3-point shooting team who can also match up with Connecticut defensively, which is the worst of both ends for Connecticut.  Minnesota has a bunch of versatile forwards/wings, which is something that is interesting to throw at Alyssa Thomas, who is effectively a guard in a forward’s body who looks like she’s a linebacker out there.  The biggest question is if Minnesota has the size to go against Connecticut, especially if their shot isn’t falling consistently; as much as I have criticized Connecticut’s playing style, they still do have 3 either bigs or big forwards in their starting lineup, which isn’t easy to face for a team that doesn’t have as much size.  Ultimately, I thought Minnesota would have the upper hand in this matchup when they had a worse record than Connecticut, and I think the same is true now.

X-Factor:  After she suddenly was an elite shooter from 3 after being an atrocious shooter previously, Alanna Smith couldn’t hit 3’s after the Olympic break.  It was the strangest thing I have ever seen, though she still has so much value that it makes sense to play her big minutes.  Even while she couldn’t hit 3’s, Minnesota went on an absolute tear.  That said, if she can hit a lot of her 3’s, they have another weapon from deep to pair with two of the league’s best shooters in Kayla McBride and Bridget Carleton; good luck defending this trio from deep.

Prediction:  Minnesota, 3-1

 

 

Finals

1 New York Liberty vs. 2 Minnesota Lynx

If you were to look at the names, I get it if you’d imagine that New York will steamroll their way through this series, but I genuinely think this series could be incredibly close; I wouldn’t be shocked if multiple games went to overtime.  I know that New York has more stars, but I love how well put together Minnesota’s team is, especially how versatile the team is.  I honestly believe this matchup will be an exciting series that takes 5 games, but New York is deeper than Minnesota.  New York’s top-4 is better than that of Minnesota, and New York also has a stronger bench.  The thing I’m most excited about in this matchup is seeing two teams without a traditional big in their starting lineup, which is something I advocate for if there is not one among their top players.  Both teams have multiple forwards who are great rebounders, so they have one playing the center and another playing the 4, though both teams are versatile with their forwards.  I’ll predict New York in 5 right now, though I reserve the ability to change my mind for my Finals prediction based on how each team plays in the playoffs.  I really hope this matchup happens from a playing style standpoint; I’m really excited about this matchup from a theoretical perspective.

X-Factor:  Minnesota will shoot a lot of 3’s, so the biggest question is how Kayla Thornton’s shot is during the series.  She is so valuable defensively and has shot better than ever this year, but she has been inconsistent with her shot throughout her career.  If this is a moment where she isn’t nailing 3’s, what is her role offensively?  She is largely off-ball offensively and doesn’t take a lot of shots inside the arc, so you might be able to leave her open if she isn’t hitting her shots.  She will be able to do a lot defensively so they really need to play her, but can they afford to if she isn’t hitting shots and Minnesota just leaves her open?

Prediction:  New York, 3-2

 

 

Who do you think will win the Finals?  Any matchups you’re looking forward to?  Let me know in the comments!