The WNBA Championship Contenders

Now that the last couple weeks are winding down in the WNBA, we are left with an interesting question that feels unique for the league after the last few seasons:  who is contending for a title?  After a few years where it was clear who the best 2-3 teams typically were (with the exception of 2021), there are 5 teams that I think have a genuine chance at a title.  While there are two teams that I consider the frontrunners, including one that I think is an easy frontrunner to win, it is exciting to see that even late in the season, nearly half of the 12 teams in the league have a chance to compete (while this isn’t necessarily a clean transition to leagues with many more teams, it is a wild fact to consider).  In this post, I will discuss each of these 5 teams and my analysis of them.

Before going into the teams that I think are legitimate contenders, I want to briefly acknowledge why I don’t think 7 teams are going to contend.  L.A. and Washington have both been about as bad as expected since they are so young and have dealt with injuries all year.  Dallas and Atlanta have both been fighting for the last playoff spot since they’ve been dealing with so many injuries (for reference, they have had 23 combined different players start between the two teams, which is insane for the WNBA); that said, both have made a bit of a push since they’ve been healthier, but there is little to no chance that they would even make it out of the first round.  Chicago has been much better than I expected since they’re rookies have been better than expected (especially Angel Reese as a rebounder and defender) and is currently in a playoff spot (I think they’ll fall out of it, but we’ll see), but they won’t win it this year.  Despite surging lately, most of Indiana’s stars are still too young to contend this year and there is still a little bit of clunkiness from youth and inexperience.  If you were to look at the names on Phoenix, you might think they would be contenders based on the names, especially if you’re more of a casual fan.  The issue is that most of the names haven’t lived up to the hype.  Kahleah Copper has been an MVP-candidate (while her defense has taken a hit, she is playing the best offense of her career), the rest of their top players haven’t been as good as they need to be; while Brittney Griner has been great, she isn’t All-WNBA level player she was prior to the Russian penal colony (which isn’t surprising since she was in a Russian penal colony for a year).  Otherwise, Diana Taurasi has been great for a 42-year-old, but probably is best served as a bench player who is starting, Natasha Cloud has taken a step back defensively, Sophie Cunningham has been incredibly inconsistent, and Rebecca Allen has dealt with injuries all year; while the rest of the team has been largely non-factors, we’ll see if signing Monique Billings helps their depth to escape the first round.

 

New York Liberty

I figured that New York would be awesome entering the year, and they have been exceptional despite some inconsistencies from 3.  While their offense has been very good, it really has been their defense that has been their calling card, which was something that it sounded like they were focused on in the offseason.  While Breanna Stewart is playing amazing and Sabrina Ionescu might be playing basketball of her career (despite both struggling from deep), the biggest story to me is Jonquel Jones.  After struggling most of last year, she was incredible in the playoffs; this year, she might be playing the best basketball of her career outside of her MVP season.  She has been dominant defensively, appears to get every rebound, and has been an efficient scorer and playmaker, which has allowed New York to thrive in a small ball system.  They are also getting great contributions from Betnijah Laney (though she has dealt with injury), Courtney Vandersloot (who is still valuable despite taking a massive step back), Kayla Thornton, and surprisingly impactful minutes from rookie wing Leonie Fiebich.  I think they should be treated as the frontrunners to win the championship, which is fun for fans of their style of play; I would predict them to win at this time, though it’s not a lock.

 

Connecticut Sun

Every year, Connecticut has annoyed me to no end with their style of play (with the exception of after Brionna Jones was injured and they played a faster paced offense with Alyssa Thomas at point guard).  The team is largely bad at shooting from just about everywhere and plays at the slowest pace in the league while also having an amazing defense; despite all that, they are somehow 3^rd in offensive rating (I have no idea how since their effective field goal percentage and free throw percentage are both atrocious) and 2^nd in both defensive rating and net rating.  Alyssa Thomas be a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year for the third straight year (and fourth straight healthy year), but she has largely been quieter on offense (though she has been more efficient as a finisher).  DeWanna Bonner (who is also Thomas’s fiancé) is having one of her best defensive years at the age of 36 and is still their go-to scorer, but is still incredibly inconsistent with her shooting and efficiency.  While Brionna Jones has taken a step back from what she was doing pre-injury, she has still been efficient and is playing the best defense of her career in stretches.  With the exception of Tyasha Harris (who is having a breakout year as a shooter and playmaker while holding her own defensively), most of their team has been made up of players who are amazing athletes and defenders who can’t score efficiently, including DiJonai Carrington (who has been exceptional defensively), Tiffany Mitchell, Olivia Nelson-Ododa, and Veronica Burton.  However, they appeared to realize that they needed some more help, and they acquired Marina Mabrey.  Mabrey is a great shooter who has always had horrible shot selection, but she has provided Connecticut with an offensive firepower they needed and consistent shooting ability; she has also been an awesome fit with her intensity.  While I wouldn’t be surprised if they lose to any other team in a series on this list due to their inconsistent offense (I’m not sure if I would predict that, but I’m leaning towards it), their defense, size, and versatility (especially with Thomas) is going to make them difficult to beat.

 

Minnesota Lynx

I absolutely love Minnesota’s playing style as they take a lot of 3’s and have a ton of playmaking and defensive versatility, but there is one major difference from the team I expected to see coming into the year:  most of their role players are having career years from deep out of nowhere.  I would seriously consider Napheesa Collier for MVP if I had a vote and she has been having an incredible season in almost every aspect of the game (while her 3 hasn’t been that efficient, she is shooting at a career high clip from deep).  I think the most important jump is that Kayla McBride, who went from being an All-Star sharpshooter to also becoming a respectable defender and playmaker while shooting at the highest clip of her career.  The other starters all are perfect fits, as Alanna Smith’s breakout season last year as a solid 2-way versatile forward has continued as she has topped 40% from deep while never previously reaching 30%, Courtney Williams, whose playmaking that emerged last season has made her the perfect fit for this team, and Bridget Carleton, whose breakout as a defender and shooter has made her a great complementary piece for this team, as well as making me wonder if she could end up winning Most Improved Player.  Their bench is full of solid players who fit as defenders and potential threats from deep, including Dorka Juhasz, Natisha Hiedeman, and the newly acquired Myisha Hines-Allen; while they haven’t played a ton, Cecilia Zandalasini and Diamond Miller have also shown glimpses.  While I would probably predict New York to win, I honestly think this team is primed to make the Finals; I think their defensive versatility is something that could really make them a difficult matchup against each of the teams here, especially if they’re facing a team like New York that also doesn’t have a traditional big.

 

Seattle Storm

Seattle is a little confusing since their top-4 players are exceptional, but the rest of the team is a bit underwhelming.  They are a weird team since they operate at a fast pace, cannot hit 3’s, and are close to average on both ends of the court; it’s especially strange since several established players are shooting dramatically worse from deep.  The most prominent holdover from their previous title contenders is Jewell Loyd, who is a high-volume score first guard who is a good defender and poor shooter from 2, but this year she also can’t seem to hit 3’s, resulting in possibly her most inefficient season.  My hope for Seattle going into the year was that the newly acquired Nneka Ogwumike would be their best player, and she has been on both ends; I have continued to argue that she is the most underrated star in the league since she is great at everything on the court yet doesn’t appear to get the respect she deserves.  While Skyler Diggins-Smith has been solid, especially as a playmaker, her efficiency and aggressiveness as a scorer have appeared to be totally gone; while I expected her scoring numbers might take a step back due to her joining other stars, as well as giving birth, but this is the least efficient she has been as a scorer in 8 seasons, when she was coming back from a torn ACL.  While most of the focus was on those three, the real key is the other star in their big-4, the criminally underrated Ezi Magbegor, a great rebounder who could end up winning Defensive Player of the Year.  The issue is that they’re in trouble after that; while they have Gabby Williams joining them since the Olympics ended, who is an amazing defender, but largely a minus offensively due to how inefficient she is as a scorer.  The rest of the team’s rotation contains players who are good defenders but major minuses offenses, including Jordan Horston, Sami Whitcomb (who suddenly cannot hit a 3 after being a great shooter), Mercedes Russell, and Victoria Vivians (whose minutes I see being reduced the most after Williams has become fully acclimated).  I just don’t know what to expect with this team; there are so many variables with this team.  If their stars are on their peak and the role players are playing well, they could go far; the issue is that I don’t trust the team to consistently do this.

 

Las Vegas Aces

Las Vegas is weird this year, as their offense has been great, but several of their players have struggled compared to usual trying to carry a different load.  While I had been blaming Chelsea Gray’s injury for a while, I think their inconsistencies have remained even after she came back.  Still, A’ja Wilson might be having the best season of her career, which is insane for a two-time MVP and two-time Defensive Player of the Year; if they were a top-3 team, she would be the clear MVP.  While she is having another great season, it is worth noting that Kelsey Plum’s efficiency has decreased significantly, which I think might be related to Gray’s injuries.  Similarly, Jackie Young has been respectable in the point guard role, but her efficiency has also taken a massive impact while filling in for Gray.  The biggest question is about what Gray will be, as she has struggled since returning from injury, although the team has played better; I believe she’ll be exposed against a lot of good teams in the playoffs if she continues to play has she has, especially on offense.  They really have a thin rotation after that, as Alysha Clark and Tiffany Hayes are great bench players and stop starters, and Kiah Stokes has been good defensively, though pretty bad offensively (worth noting that she’s shooting more 3’s than 2’s, despite shooting less than 20% from 3 and more than 50% from 2, which makes no sense to do); otherwise, they have gotten some minutes from Kate Martin, Megan Gustafson, and Sydney Colson, though I don’t expect any will get many minutes in the playoffs.  They have the potential to win the Championship if their stars are all playing well, but I could also see them struggling in several matchups; if they have to face New York or Minnesota, I think it would be difficult for them to end up winning their third straight championship.

 

 

Who do you think will win the WNBA Championship?  Any teams you find interesting?  Let me know in the comments!