2024-25 NBA Season Preview

The NBA season is here!  After an exciting and interesting offseason, the season is set to start!  In my predictions, I am discussing my standings predictions, playoff predictions, award predictions, and my analysis of each team (I put that last since I know most of you care about that a lot less than I do); in the analysis, I discussed each team and several key players, an x-factor role player from each team, and the best and worst case scenario for each team.  Enjoy!

Standings

East

1. Boston Celtics
2. New York Knicks
3. Philadelphia 76ers
4. Milwaukee Bucks
5. Cleveland Cavaliers
6. Indiana Pacers
7. Orlando Magic
8. Miami Heat
9. Atlanta Hawks
10. Toronto Raptors
11. Detroit Pistons
12. Chicago Bulls
13. Charlotte Hornets
14. Brooklyn Nets
15. Washington Wizards

 

West

1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. Minnesota Timberwolves
3. Denver Nuggets
4. Dallas Mavericks
5. Phoenix Suns
6. New Orleans Pelicans
7. Sacramento Kings
8. Houston Rockets
9. Memphis Grizzlies
10. Golden State Warriors
11. Los Angeles Lakers
12. Los Angeles Clippers
13. San Antonio Spurs
14. Utah Jazz
15. Portland Trail Blazers

 

 

Playoff Predictions

As a note, I’m predicting the 7 and 8 seeds get out of the Play-In in their same seed.  The reason I’m doing that is because it doesn’t make sense to predict a single game result at the end of the season before this season even starts.

 

First Round

1 Boston beats 8 Miami 4-1

2 New York beats 7 Orlando 4-2

3 Philadelphia beats 6 Indiana 4-2

4 Milwaukee beats 5 Cleveland 4-2

1 Oklahoma City beats 8 Houston 4-1

2 Minnesota beats 7 Sacramento 4-2

3 Denver beats 6 New Orleans 4-2

4 Dallas beats 5 Phoenix 4-3

 

Second Round

1 Boston beats 4 Milwaukee 4-1

2 New York beats 3 Philadelphia 4-3

1 Oklahoma City beats 4 Dallas 4-2

2 Minnesota beats 3 Denver 4-3

 

Conference Finals

1 Boston beats 2 New York 4-2

1 Oklahoma City beats 2 Minnesota 4-2

 

Finals

1 Boston beats 1 Oklahoma City 4-2

 

Awards

MVP

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC
2. Luka Doncic, DAL
3. Anthony Edwards, MIN
4. Nikola Jokic, DEN
5. Jayson Tatum, BOS

I feel like it’s going to be Gilgeous-Alexander or Doncic, and since there’s better odds of OKC playing better than Dallas, I’m going with Gilgeous-Alexander.  There’s been a big push to have Edwards be one of the faces of the league, so I think he’ll end up finishing high, especially if Minnesota plays well.  Jokic is going to likely be the best player in basketball again, so you really can’t count on him finishing lower than 4^th, and I expect Tatum will fair well in the voting again, especially if Boston dominates again.  Other potential candidates include Jalen Brunson, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, Donovan Mitchell, Stephen Curry, Devin Booker, LeBron James, and Jaylen Brown.

 

Rookie of the Year

1. Zach Edey, MEM
2. Bub Carrington, WAS
3. Alex Sarr, WAS

This year is weird because there are only 3 rookies who I think will be highly likely to receive starting level minutes:  Edey, Carrington, and Sarr.  I don’t believe any of these will be the best rookie (I honestly think it will be Kel’el Ware), but they’ll put up numbers.  I think Edey will struggle in transition in the NBA, but he will put up big enough numbers to win the award, especially since I expect his competition will have roller coaster years on a bad Washington team.  I also wouldn’t be surprised if other vote getters include Rob Dillingham, Zaccharie Resacher, Stephon Castle, Kel’el Ware, Tidjane Salaün, Dalton Knecht, Jared McCain, Ryan Dunn, and Yves Missi.

 

Most Improved Player

1. Josh Giddey, CHI
2. Cade Cunningham, DET
3. Jalen Johnson, ATL

I’m normally horrible at guessing this award; last year was a solid year for my top 3, where I got one of the finalists right (Tyrese Maxey), and also included Evan Mobley (who didn’t play enough games) and Obi Toppin (who lost his starting job after Indiana traded for Pascal Siakam).  In other words, take this prediction with a grain of salt.

I think that Giddey will be a finalist due to how Chicago is likely going to utilize him, though it will be interesting to see how they handle all the ball dominant players on this team.  While Cunningham improved significantly last season, Detroit struggled mightily and had very few good shooters in their rotation for Cunningham to pass to; this year, I expect Detroit will make a push for the Play-In, and they have signed several good shooters, so Cunningham will likely be more willing to pass and will probably be more efficient.  There are several players I considered for the third slot, but Johnson had a great year as Atlanta’s third option and will now be their second option, so there’s the opportunity for him to have a massive season.  I also considered Immanuel Quickley, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Williams, Jaden McDaniels, Jabari Smith Jr., Miles McBride, Jonathan Kuminga, and Evan Mobley.

 

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Victor Wembanyama, SAS
2. Bam Adebayo, MIA
3. Evan Mobley, CLE

I am predicting that Wembanyama will win Defensive Player of the Year despite not being the best defender in the league.  The narrative of him being an elite rim protector (which he is) and being a future face of the league (which I expect he will be) will drive the race so long as he is great; even after a tough first 20 games of the season last year, he still was runner-up for this award.  I think Adebayo will be the best defensive player in the game this year due to his defensive versatility and ability, which will make him a finalist.  I think the third place will either be Mobley, Anthony Davis, or Rudy Gobert; I think Cleveland will be really good defensively and there is a good chance that he will end up being the face of their defense.  Other potential candidates include Davis, Gobert, Herb Jones, Jalen Suggs, Derrick White, Alex Caruso, Jaden McDaniels, Jrue Holiday, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Chet Holmgren, Amen Thompson, and Jaren Jackson Jr.

 

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Malik Monk, SAC
2. Miles McBride, NYK
3. Naz Reid, MIN

This is always tough to predict because of who will play enough games as a sixth man (a legendary example was when I predicted Dennis Schröder would win the award and then he started for the entire season); in particular, there are certain players who could be finalists if eligible, but I don’t think they’ll play enough off the bench (for instance, I didn’t include any New Orleans players since I think they’ll deal with enough injuries).  That said, Monk was a finalist for Sixth Man of the Year last year and fits the popular mold for this award of a high-volume scorer, while also shooting well and being a good playmaker.  While it’s possible he won’t be eligible due to having to start too much, McBride is going to be a key player for New York off the bench and will score a ton for a team without a clear bench.  It’s possible that Reid won’t win this award due to the trade for Donte DiVincenzo, but the reigning Sixth Man of the Year will still play a ton and is a great shooter and finisher.  Other possibilities include Bobby Portis, Andre Drummond, Donte DiVincenzo, Grayson Allen, T.J. McConnell, Cason Wallace, Caris LeVert, Kelly Oubre, Jaden Hardy, Benedict Mathurin, and Cole Anthony.

 

Coach of the Year

1. Mark Daigneault, OKC
2. Chris Finch, MIN
3. Tom Thibodeau, NYK

This award is kind of silly to predict because the winner is almost always the coach of a team that surprises people the most, which is kind of counterintuitive to predict who will be the most surprising.  That said, I think OKC will be better than they were last year, and Daigneault is such a good coach who is highly regarded, so I don’t think it would be a surprise for him to win again.  After trading Karl-Anthony Towns, there are a lot of people who are low on Minnesota, so I think Finch will end up being a strong competitor for this award once they are good again.  The Knicks are likely to have injury concerns all season, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see Thibodeau end up getting a lot of votes this year.  Other possibilities include Joe Mazzulla, Kenny Atkinson, Ime Udoka, Jason Kidd, Nick Nurse, Michael Malone, and Mike Budenholzer.

 

All-NBA

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC
2. Luka Doncic, DAL
3. Anthony Edwards, MIN
4. Nikola Jokic, DEN
5. Jayson Tatum, BOS
6. Jalen Brunson, NYK
7. Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL
8. Kevin Durant, PHO
9. Donovan Mitchell, CLE
10. Stephen Curry, GSW
11. Devin Booker, PHO
12. LeBron James, LAL
13. Jaylen Brown, BOS
14. Karl-Anthony Towns, NYK
15. Paul George, PHI

 

All-Rookie

1. Zach Edey, MEM
2. Bub Carrington, WAS
3. Alex Sarr, WAS
4. Rob Dillingham, MIN
5. Zaccharie Risacher, ATL
6. Stephon Castle, SAS
7. Kel’el Ware, MIA
8. Tidjane Salaün, CHO
9. Dalton Knecht, LAL
10. Jared McCain, PHI

 

All-Defense

1. Victor Wembanyama, SAS
2. Bam Adebayo, MIA
3. Evan Mobley, CLE
4. Anthony Davis, LAL
5. Rudy Gobert, MIN
6. Herb Jones, NOP
7. Jalen Suggs, ORL
8. Derrick White, BOS
9. Alex Caruso, OKC
10. Jaden McDaniels, MIN

 

All-Stars

East

1. Jalen Brunson, NYK
2. Tyrese Haliburton, IND
3. Joel Embiid, PHI
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL
5. Jayson Tatum, BOS
6. Donovan Mitchell, CLE
7. Damian Lillard, MIL
8. Jaylen Brown, BOS
9. Karl Anthony-Towns, NYK
10. Scottie Barnes, TOR
11. Cade Cunningham, DET
12. Paul George, PHI

West

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC
2. Stephen Curry, GSW
3. Nikola Jokic, DEN
4. LeBron James, LAL
5. Kevin Durant, PHO
6. Luka Doncic, DAL
7. Devin Booker, PHO
8. Victor Wembanyama, SAS
9. Domantas Sabonis, SAC
10. Jalen Williams, OKC
11. Zion Williamson, NOP
12. Ja Morant, MEM

Analysis

East

1:  Boston Celtics

After dominating the league last year and cruising their way to the championship, there are still a lot of people who doubt them because they didn’t have the most difficult path (even though no path to the championship is easy).  That said, while it’s possible that they don’t try as hard during the regular season, they seem more motivated than most teams going for a repeat.  Jayson Tatum receives a lot of flack for what he cannot do and focus about him not being one of the top-5 players in the league, but he is an excellent scorer, rebounder, and defender with great size who is also an underrated playmaker; he has clearly shown that he can be a number 1 on a great team.  Jaylen Brown is an elite scorer, finisher, defender, and great shooter who is so talented at making contested shot (especially when in the zone) and is improving as a passer (I think Kristaps Porzingis’ presence helped that out a bit).  Kristaps Porzingis proved to be the perfect fit as a third option for this team due to his shooting, finishing, and shot blocking, while his weaknesses when being beat at the rim at times were minimized due to the defensive players surrounding him (not that he is a bad defender; he is good, though he has weaknesses that were on display at previous stops); the biggest question is his injuries, especially since he already had foot surgery.  When Boston traded for Derrick White in 2022, I never imaged he would be one of their best players, but he is a superstar role player as he is a good playmaker, shooter, defender, mover on and off the ball, and shot blocker for a guard; the most important thing for him is how much confidence he now has in his game and his shot.  They also have Jrue Holiday (one of the best defensive guards in the game who is also a great shooter, underrated playmaker, brilliant mover, and beloved teammate), Al Horford (a beloved and versatile big who is so smart on both ends and an excellent shooter), Sam Hauser (an automatic shooter with amazing size), Payton Pritchard (a competitive guard who is a great shooter and has a knack for hitting buzzer beating deep shots), Luke Kornet (a steady backup big who is a good defender and finisher, though I wish he would stop his stupid “Kornet Contest”), Xavier Tillman (a physical big who can do a lot with his craftiness), Neemias Queta (a raw big who is a good finisher and is improving on defense), and Baylor Scheierman (a rookie who is a do-it-all type guard/wing).  While they might not finish first in the East in the regular season, they should be a title contender unless everyone gets injured.

X-Factor:  While he fell out of the rotation last year due to his struggles as a shooter from deep, Xavier Tillman is a player who provides an interesting skillset, especially with Kristaps Porzingis injured and Al Horford’s minutes being managed due to his age.  Tillman is a bit of a bruiser who also is a crafty finisher due to some smooth footwork.  I also think there is more ability than he has shown as a cutter and finisher.  While he’s not a great passer, I think that having a 4-out lineup with him at the 5 would be really interesting since I think he could be a good enough passer to recognize the open man if a double collapses onto him, which would result in Boston almost guaranteed to hit the open shot.  In general, I think he just provides a lot, though I don’t expect Joe Mazzulla to play him if he can’t hit 3’s.

Best Case Scenario:  They are amazing again and repeat as champions.

Worst Case Scenario:  They can’t overcome several injuries and multiple key players regress, resulting in a mid-playoff seed and a first-round exit.

 

2:  New York Knicks

The Knicks made some massive swings this offseason, but despite taking several risks, they have championship level team.  Jalen Brunson is a clear star in the league, as he is an efficient scorer from anywhere, is a good playmaker, and has a great handle; while I’ve questioned if he can be the top player on a championship team at points, he is an exceptional player.  The Knicks just made a trade for Karl-Anthony Towns, which is a risk given his injuries over the past few years, but it raises New York’s ceiling; Towns is a great shooter and has moments where he looks like one of the most dominant offensive bigs I’ve seen, but he is a poor defender in switches and has moments where he is atrocious on the court.  I still think him as a second-best player for New York will be interesting with the offensive machinations.  New York also traded for Mikal Bridges this offseason, who is a great 2-way player who has a reputation as more of a 3-and-D wing, though he has shown in Brooklyn that he is also good working off the dribble; he probably isn’t a top-2 player on a championship team, but he will be an exceptional 3^rd or 4^th option in New York.  While their depth is a bit suspect, they still do have OG Anunoby (one of the best defenders in the game who is also a stronger scorer and offensive player than he gets credit for, though he is often injured), Josh Hart (a competitive player who is a great defender and one of the best rebounding wings in the game), Miles McBride (an amazing scorer who is incredibly efficient from the field), Mitchell Robinson (an amazing finisher and defensive big who is almost never healthy, including to start the season), Precious Achiuwa (a competitive and aggressive big who has some nice defensive ability), Cam Payne (a solid backup guard who is an amazing shooter), Landry Shamet (an aggressive scorer and good shooter), and Jericho Sims (a raw but athletic young big who can finish and defend well).  It’s entirely possible that several key players get injured and the season gets ruined; that said, it’s also possible we see them holding the trophy.

X-Factor:  New York going to have some difficulties with depth; while the ideal scenario would be to have a wing who can come in and play a bunch, I think Cam Payne will be able to find a bigger role in the midst of injuries.  He is a poor defender, can’t guard wings, is more of a scorer than a playmaker, and isn’t that efficient from 2, but there is one thing he is great at:  he can shoot.  He has shown ability to shoot both on and off the ball, which is a combination that not enough fans realize is so valuable, especially for a bench player.  He’s not going to be a guy who plays 25 MPG, but he can provide 15 strong minutes without worry nightly and can jump up to 20-25 in a pinch.

Best Case Scenario:  They win the Championship.  While they made several risks with transactions in the offseason, this team has this level of upside.

Worst Case Scenario:  Injuries occur.  New York is not deep, so several injury prone players all getting hurt could end up resulting in this team falling into the Play-In.

 

3:  Philadelphia 76ers

While there is still an element of what Joel Embiid’s health, the additions this team has made now makes this team a contender.  That said, it is worth noting that a lot of the team is new, so there could be a learning curve for a little while.  Media day comments make it sound like Joel Embiid will not play enough games to be in the running for awards in effort to be healthy for the playoffs; he is one of the best players in the game and is probably the most dominant active player when healthy, so it really stinks that he is so injury prone.  Philadelphia signed the biggest free agent of the offseason in Paul George, who is an incredibly efficient scorer and great defender; while many will focus on his playoff woes, it’s also worth mentioning that he hasn’t had the most success playing along a costar as the number two option, though he was better at it this past year.  While there was a lot of focus on Tyrese Maxey’s breakout as a scorer and efficiency at such a high volume, I also think it is important to observe just how much of a better playmaker he was; he is so much fun to watch, especially in transition given his speed.  Their other players include Caleb Martin (a solid wing who is a solid defender and is an efficient scorer), Kelly Oubre (an athletic scorer and finisher who played well alongside Maxey, though he has a streaky shot), Kyle Lowry (a veteran guard who is nearing the end of his career but is still a valuable presence with a good jumper and nice playmaking ability), Andre Drummond (an elite rebounder who is one of the best backup bigs in the league), Eric Gordon (a veteran wing who is still such an impressive scorer and shooter), Reggie Jackson (a score first guard who makes sense with the team in a bench role), KJ Martin (a raw athletic wing who has shown glimpses, especially defensively), Jared McCain (an impressive shooting rookie), and Guerschon Yabusele (an interesting forward who is trying to find his way back into the league.  There’s a lot of interest surrounding this team, and while I think they will be good, there is a path for them to disappoint.

X-Factor:  Last year, Kelly Oubre started the year by having the most efficient shooting splits of his career and playing the best defense he ever has until his injury.  After his injury, he regressed on both ends of the court and reverted back to a more inconsistent style that has plagued his career.  I expect he will come off the bench this year, which will probably be good for him as he can get into a groove against bench players instead of starters.  I love the fit of him and Maxey in transition, and I hope Philly can exploit that a lot this year.

Best Case Scenario:  The team is healthy and wins the championship.  This team is built to win a championship, though they will need to be careful to keep everyone healthy.

Worst Case Scenario:  Turns out health and chemistry do matter, as they fall into the Play-In yet again and cannot escape the first round of the playoffs, leaving Embiid wary about the team’s future.

 

4:  Milwaukee Bucks

Milwaukee is in one of the most difficult situations out of contending teams, as they are still good enough to win a championship when healthy, though they are often injured and many of their better players are on the wrong side of 30 and are starting to decline.  That said, as long as they still have Giannis Antetokounmpo, they are competing, as Giannis is one of the best all-around players in the game (if you ignore his jumper as a skill to evaluate there).  Despite a decline last season, Damian Lillard is still an All-Star level player who will probably be more comfortable this year; he is still an excellent scorer and shooter.  The biggest question is how healthy Khris Middleton will be, especially after double ankle surgery; while he is still an excellent offensive player when healthy, he often misses time and has also declined on the defensive end.  The team also includes Brook Lopez (a great rim protector and shooter, though he is starting to age), Bobby Portis (a versatile scoring big who is also a good rebounder), Gary Trent Jr. (a great shooter who has shown glimpses of being a solid perimeter defender), Pat Connaughton (a solid wing defender and finisher who has taken a step back due to injuries), Taurean Prince (a good shooting wing with nice size), Delon Wright (a solid combo guard with nice defensive ability), MarJon Beauchamp (a versatile young wing with potential), and Andre Jackson Jr. (a young, versatile wing with an interesting skillset).  The other thing worth noting with this team is that Doc Rivers will now have a preseason with them, which is underrated.  I don’t know exactly how this team will do; they could finish at the top of the East or fighting their way out of the Play-In, though I wouldn’t be shocked if they finish around here.

X-Factor:  A weakness of Milwaukee at this point is a lack of athleticism and speed due to health and age outside of Giannis Antetokounmpo.  While there are two young wings in Andre Jackson Jr. and MarJon Beauchamp who can fill this void, I am interested in how Beauchamp plays this year.  He has shown glimpses of shooting and defensive versatility in limited minutes, but his finishing ability makes him more than just a 3-and-D player.  He is still raw, but he is already 24 in his third season in the league, which might put him on a shorter leash despite still being young.  If he plays well and earns Doc Rivers’ trust, he could end the year as a starter.

Best Case Scenario:  They’re healthy and talented enough to win the championship.  While I’m not optimistic about their health, winning a championship is a reasonable enough goal for them.

Worst Case Scenario:  Injuries and age work against the team, resulting in another first round exit in the playoffs.  On top of that, Giannis requests a trade, calling into question what this team is.

 

5:  Cleveland Cavaliers

After a couple years of falling flat due to a combination of injuries and clunky roster construction, they’re back at it…with the same team (on the plus side, they made an upgrade in coaching with Kenny Atkinson).  Donovan Mitchell is still their best player and has been an incredible scorer while also improving as a playmaker; the two issues for him are that he has often dealt with various injuries (though often minor) and that his defensive intensity can wane.  While there was a big deal about Mitchell signing an extension this offseason, this feels kind of like the Paul George signing with OKC to me, where he was extended to get more money and then traded the following year to a destination of his choice.  While he has shown a lot of promise, the Cavs need Evan Mobley to be the one of the two best players on the court; he is an excellent defender and has shown skill as a finisher, playmaker, and shooter, though the current roster construction has made it difficult to showcase all his skills.  Jarrett Allen is one of the most underrated players in the game right now and has probably been Cleveland’s second-best player over the last two years; he is an excellent finisher and defender who is also a great rebounder.  While Darius Garland had a difficult year last season due to injuries, he is still an awesome scorer and shooter who is an underrated playmaker, though he is a liability defensively.  Beyond them, Cleveland has Caris LeVert (a high-volume but inefficient scoring wing whose playmaking unlocked a lot off their bench offensively), Max Strus (a steady 3-and-D wing who also is a better playmaker than I previously thought), Isaac Okoro (an excellent defensive wing who appears to be improving with his shot when he’s willing to take it), Georges Niang (a sharpshooting big forward who is so consistent), Dean Wade (a sharpshooting forward who is a better defender and athlete than he gets credit for), Sam Merrill (a sharpshooter who can’t seem to miss at points), Jaylon Tyson (a rookie wing who projects to be versatile off the ball while also having some on-ball abilities), and Craig Porter (an awesome finisher and defender at the guard position).  I’m not sure where to have them here; I could see them racking up wings during the regular season, but I still think they’re not a high-level contender.

X-Factor:  One of the bigger surprises of the offseason was that Cleveland decided to bring back Isaac Okoro after waiting so long with him in restricted free agency before they opted to give him a contract (it wasn’t a bad contract for him at 3-years, $38M).  It was surprising to see them bring him back given the number of wings they have off their bench, but he is still super valuable.  He is a versatile defender who you can trust on a variety of players, especially many players in the 1-4 positional range.  The question continues to be his shot; while he jumped to 39.1% from 3 last year, he often remains hesitant to take the shots; that said, it is worth noting that he 4.1 per 36 minutes, which is his highest rate to date.  A little more confidence with the jumper and continued development for the 24-year-old will help Cleveland significantly.

Best Case Scenario:  They end up being the 1-seed as others around them struggle throughout the season and they make it to at least the Conference Finals (if things break right, maybe even the NBA Finals).

Worst Case Scenario:  Turns out that a team where the four best players include two pairs isn’t a winning formula.  They end up in the Play-In game and get wiped in the first round, several players request trades, and Evan Mobley doesn’t make the jump needed to build around him.

 

6:  Indiana Pacers

While Indiana made the Eastern Conference Finals last season, there are a lot of people who don’t have them finishing in the top 6.  While I thought they played like a top 4 team after the trade deadline, I still only have them 6^th because there are teams in the top 7 competing who will be lower than expected; that said, it’s possible they end up in the top 3.  When healthy, Tyrese Haliburton is one of the best playmakers in the league and is also a great shooter and scorer, though he has been injury prone the last couple years and is a poor defender; he is already one of the better offensive guards in the NBA.  Pascal Siakam proved to be an awesome fit in Indiana, as he is an excellent scorer, solid defender, and underrated playmaker who can thrive in transition and shot better than ever from 3.  Myles Turner is a great shooting big who is also an efficient finisher; while he is a great rim protector, it is worth noting that he was not that good defensively last season, though I think having Siakam made it a little easier for him.  They have a lot of quality players or players who could prove something, including Aaron Nesmith (a great shooter who has parlayed his athleticism into impressive defensive and finishing chops), Andrew Nembhard (a versatile offensive guard who can be successful on and off the ball), T.J. McConnell (a methodical point guard who is great at scoring inside the arc and a good playmaker, making him one of the best backup point guards in the league), Obi Toppin (an athletic finisher who has also developed a jumper), Benedict Mathurin (an explosive scorer who is a good shooter), Ben Sheppard (a wing with nice size and upside on both ends), Isaiah Jackson (a raw but athletic big with upside as a shot blocker and finisher), James Wiseman (a raw big man who has upside, though he might be on his last stint as an NBA role player for the time being), and Jarace Walker (a raw bigger forward who has an interesting skillset and upside on both ends).  While I don’t think they are worse than last year, they have the bad luck of having other teams improving; it will all depend on their health and that of other teams.

X-Factor:  In the second half of last season, T.J. McConnell made a case for Sixth Man of the Year due to his reliability.  He is such a steady and methodical point guard who really is perfect to be a high minute backup guard.  He is a solid defender due to his peskiness, but his offense is so calculated, as he is so clever about how to get to his spots and make the correct passes.  While there are several young bench players who could benefit the team if they prove themselves, McConnell is crucial for whenever Haliburton is off the court, let alone when injured.

Best Case Scenario:  Last year was not a fluke, as they are an even better seed and make it back to the Eastern Conference Finals while being more competitive in the series.

Worst Case Scenario:  Last year was a fluke and Tyrese Haliburton gets injured, causing them to fall into the Play-In and falter early in the playoffs.

 

7:  Orlando Magic

I’m in a strange situation with this team, as I think last year was legitimate and that they are better than last year on paper, but there are 7 teams who are competing, and Orlando didn’t improve their biggest weakness (the point guard position).  Still, their present and future have to be bright when they’re built around star Paolo Banchero; while he isn’t that efficient yet, he is still an aggressive scorer and is improving as a playmaker and defender.  Despite a difficult year from deep, Franz Wagner is a talented all-around player who can do so much on both ends of the court; I’m not certain if he is a top-2 guy on a contending team (though I think it’s possible), but he can definitely be a top-3 player, which is huge for Orlando.  They also brought back a very deep team, as they have Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (an excellent 3-and-D wing who also has a better handle than he is given credit for), Wendell Carter Jr. (a versatile big who is a good shooter, defender, and rebounder, though he is often hurt), Jalen Suggs (the player who I believe is the best defensive guard in the league who also took a massive jump as a shooter), Cole Anthony (a high-volume scoring guard off the bench who has also developed into a very good defender), Gary Harris (a competitive wing who has embrace and thrived at the role of a 3-and-D guard/wing), Jonathan Isaac (one of the best defensive players in the game, though he is often hurt), Mo Wagner (a competitive big who is valuable as a backup with his defense and versatility), Goga Bitadze (an amazing backup big who is a great finisher and defender), Anthony Black (an excellent defensive guard who was more efficient at scoring on a small volume than I expected), Caleb Houstan (a raw wing who has great size and is a good shooter), Tristan Da Silva (a versatile older rookie with a smooth jumper), and Jett Howard (a raw young forward with a nice jumper).  It’s entirely possible that this team ends up finishing higher (even as high as third) if one of their guards develops as a lead point guard; the issue is that one of the 7 competitive teams in the East has to make the Play-In.

X-Factor:  While Jalen Suggs is better than most of the players I would include in this section, his development is how this team will make a jump.  While he has always been a great defender, he developed into one of the best defensive guards in the league (if I had a vote for the awards, I would have voted Suggs third in Defensive Player of the Year behind Rudy Gobert and Bam Adebayo).  The massive jump that he made this year though is the jumper; after being a below average or poor shooter from deep throughout his career, he was excellent from deep last year.  This year, Orlando is banking on him improving as a playmaker to be a starting point guard instead of a combo guard.  While he was good at it in college and showed glimpses in his rookie year, they really need a massive jump if they want to be as good as they were last year since the East got better.

Best Case Scenario:  They end up being a higher seed and make it to the Eastern Conference Finals.  From there, the Finals isn’t that much of a pipe dream.

Worst Case Scenario:  They end up being a lower seed in the Play-In game and find themselves out of the playoffs.  On top of that, Franz Wagner struggles and several players don’t develop.

 

8:  Miami Heat

Miami is often a weird team; while there are many who won’t rule them out since they have had playoff success, their regular season seed since signing Jimmy Butler have been 5, 6, 1, 8, and 8, so I think the year they were the 1-seed might be the outlier.  The biggest question they have during the regular season is how much Butler will play; he is an excellent all-around player on both ends when he plays, but he has only played more than 60 games once since joining Miami, which doesn’t bode well for the Heat considering that he is now 35 (it is worth monitoring how his contract situation and cap space next summer dictate his play as well).  We’re at a point where Bam Adebayo will probably not win Defensive Player of the Year since Victor Wembanyama will likely win it, but I think there’s a serious case that Adebayo could be most deserving of it; he’s underrated since people want more than 20 PPG, but he is a versatile defender who also has some nice passing chops.  The rest of the team feels pretty weird; there are a lot of guys who I could see doing some things when healthy, but I largely feel underwhelmed with the rest of the roster despite their depth.  The rest of the team includes Tyler Herro (a great shooter and underrated playmaker who is a horrible defender and is always hurt), Terry Rozier (a good player who is competitive as a scorer and is an underrated playmaker and can defend if focused, though his shot selection can be wacky), Jaime Jaquez (a competitive forward/wing who looked good as a rookie, though his shot has always been streaky), Nikola Jovic (a competitive forward who improved his efficiency and defense significantly last season), Duncan Robinson (a great shooter who has rediscovered his confidence and has improved his game offensively), Haywood Highsmith (a competitive forward who is a good defender and has improved his jumper), Josh Richardson (a quality 3-and-D wing who has finally embraced his role, though he is recovering from injury), Kevin Love (an experienced veteran who is still an amazing shooter and rebounder), Kel’el Ware (an athletic rookie big who I am really high on due to his defensive potential; he has also shown glimpses as a shooter, though I’m not as high on his jumper), Alec Burks (a reliable shooter who can be plugged in during an emergency), Thomas Bryant (a solid backup big who is a great finisher), and Nassir Little (a raw, athletic wing who I still think has upside).  I don’t see this team going far in the playoffs, but I think they’re good enough that they shouldn’t finish much lower than this (maybe 9^th, but I’d be shocked if they finished lower than that).

X-Factor:  Often, Miami operates in a manner where their breakout players are undrafted players or G-League players who breakout.  That said, I think the true breakout player this year could be a 21-year-old who started a significant number of games last year in Nikola Jovic.  He has developed his jumper quicker than I expected and is a very efficient finisher already.  His defense has also developed quicker than I expected, as he wasn’t that amazing of an athlete, but his IQ and competitiveness on that end make him already reliable.  While he has shown glimpses of passing, I think there is more that can be enhanced of this skillset of his.  While I don’t believe he will be a star, he is already a solid role player who deserves the starting spot; if he makes a jump, this team will likely finish higher than 8^th.

Best Case:  They sneak their way into the playoffs while avoiding the Play-In (likely as a 4-6 seed) and end up on another magical run deep in the playoffs.

Worst Case:  It will be hard for Miami to totally miss the Play-In given just how bad the bottom-6 teams could be in the East, but if they are a 9- or 10-seed and lose in the first game, chaos will ensue, with Jimmy Butler leaving and the rest of the team in limbo for next year.

 

9:  Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta is such a confusing team; on paper, they have several guys who could play a role, but a lot of these players seem to not be as good as I would hope for.  Their best player is still Trae Young, who is an aggressive scorer and passer, though he is an atrocious defender, has bad shot selection, and passes more for assists than for a good play.  Prior to getting hurt on a bad luck foul, Jalen Johnson emerged as an amazing 2-way player who versatility, finishing ability, and a bit of a shooting stroke; if Atlanta is going to make the playoffs, it is because he has another great season (and maybe plays better).  Outside of that, they have Bogdan Bogdanovic (a talented and skilled scorer who has nice size and is a great bench player), De’Andre Hunter (a solid forward who is versatile and has a nice jumper, though he has left a bit to be desired, especially on his contract), Larry Nance Jr. (a great athlete who is an awesome finisher and a versatile defender), Zaccharie Risacher (the top pick in the draft who projects to be a solid 3-and-D player, though I think he’s a bit more raw than people make him out to be), Clint Capela (a good rebounder and finisher who is still a solid defender, though he looks like he might be fading a little), Onyeka Okongwu (a talented big who hasn’t gotten the attention that he deserves due to being stuck behind Capela), Dyson Daniels (a big, young point guard with 2-way upside), Garrison Mathews (an excellent shooting wing), David Roddy (a crafty forward who is shorter but big and has shown upside in Memphis), Vit Krejci (a big guard who showed upside in glimpses), and Kobe Bufkin (a young aggressive scoring guard who was the 15^th pick last year).  I don’t expect this team to make the playoffs, though they should definitely be a Play-In team; I just question what a Trae Young-led team will ever be.

X-Factor:  After trading Dejounte Murray, there isn’t an obvious backup point guard behind Trae Young, as most of their guards are younger.  I think there is a clear path for Dyson Daniels to fill that role initially, especially since he was arguably the prize of this trade.  Daniels is big (6’8), looks like a good defender, is a strong finisher, and while not a good shooter, might be slightly better than I thought he would be.  There will be growing pains since he is only 21, but he has upside and can switch onto wings.

Best Case Scenario:  Jalen Johnson becomes a star, a few other players take a step, and they make the playoffs while making another magical run further than expected.

Worst Case Scenario:  Johnson either is hurt or regresses, several young players don’t play well, Atlanta misses the playoffs, and there is a divide between Atlanta and Trae Young’s camp about what to do

 

10:  Toronto Raptors

Toronto is one of the teams that is likely to have a strange season.  They made it clear on media day that they will not be trying to win a ton of games, but the bottom 6 teams in the East could all be bad, meaning one of them has to stumble into the Play-In.  Still, they clearly have a young star in Scottie Barnes, who is already an impressive scorer, rebounder, and playmaker who projects to be a good defender as well.  After acquiring him during the season, Immanuel Quickley scored a lot while also showcasing impressive playmaking ability that he was never able to showcase in New York, suggesting he has a bright future if this is legit (I think the playmaking is).  The other player they got back in the OG Anunoby trade, R.J. Barrett, had a breakout performance and scored more efficiently from everywhere than he had prior.  Some other players on the team who will play a large role include Jakob Poeltl (a talented defensive big who is also a good finisher), Bruce Brown (a consistent and versatile two-way player who can play several positions, though he is recovering from an injury), Gradey Dick (a young sharpshooter who could make a jump this year), Kelly Olynyk (a skilled big who doesn’t get enough attention for his shooting or playmaking, Ochai Agbaji (a 3-and-D prospect coming off of a tough season), Ja’Kobe Walter (a raw rookie guard who has upside and plays hard), and Davion Mitchell (an impressive defensive guard who hasn’t shown much offensively).  While I sometimes second guess this decision, I think Toronto is the team I trust the most out of the bottom-6 teams in the East.

X-Factor:  After his rookie year in the 2022-23 season, Utah appeared extremely resistant to trade Ochai Agbaji, as he showed a lot of promise as a 3-and-D wing who looked like a smart player.  By the trade deadline, they gave him up to Toronto for a pretty weak return alongside Kelly Olynyk after struggling for Utah.  He ended up playing horribly in Toronto as well, which makes it easy to think he is an odd man out of this rotation.  That said, if he can rediscover his shooting touch and improve a bit on defense, he could be a really nice rotation piece who earns significant minutes.

Best Case Scenario:  Barnes and Quickley are awesome, at least one other player makes a jump, and they sneak into the playoffs and are an annoyance in the first round (though the counter argument is that it would be better for them to just miss the playoffs and then get lucky in the lottery…).

Worst Case Scenario:  They’re horrible, several players regress (including Quickley), Barrett’s hot finish was a fluke, Barnes is done with the team, and they end up with rotten luck in the lottery.

 

11:  Detroit Pistons

Detroit has been really bad for the last few years, and I totally understand if the expectation is that they will be bad again.  That said, I feel more confident about them than I do about most of the other teams in the bottom 6 in the East; in fact, I wouldn’t be shocked if they ended up in the Play-In.  Cade Cunningham has quietly emerged as an amazing point guard, as he is a great shooter and playmaker whose shot selection will probably improve with the improved shooting that Detroit has added.  Many people would probably laugh about the idea that Tobias Harris is their second best player, but is a good shooter and scorer who is an underrated defender; the issue is that Philadelphia wanted him to shoot so many more 3’s than makes sense given his game.  Otherwise, they have Jalen Duran (a raw athletic big with potential as a finisher, defender, and rebounder), Ausar Thompson (an amazing athlete and defender with some playmaking chops, though he cannot shoot), Isaiah Stewart (a physical big who has significantly improved his jumper), Malik Beasley (an excellent shooter), Jaden Ivey (a young aggressive scoring guard who has shown glimpses of her upside, though is still raw), Simone Fontecchio (a versatile wing who is an amazing shooter), Tim Hardaway Jr. (a skilled scorer and great shooter), Marcus Sasser (an aggressive scoring guard who might be a better playmaker and ball handler than I initially thought), Ron Holland (an athletic rookie who plays hard on both ends and has playmaking upside), Paul Reed (a steady backup big who has found success on both ends), and Bobi Klintman (a raw but freakishly athletic forward with amazing size).  Even if they don’t end up being in the Play-In mix, newly hired J.B. Bickerstaff will be a much better fit there, especially since I imagine he’s more excited to be there than Monty Williams.

X-Factor:  There were a lot of things that Monty Williams struggled with as Detroit’s coach last season, but one that grew a lot of derision from the front office was his handling of Jaden Ivey and his apparent ignorance of the fact that Detroit drafted Ivey to also play the point in situations (something that even I knew they did and I am not involved with the team).  Now that J.B. Bickerstaff is at the helm, Ivey can get a fresh start with a new coach (again) and without the looming threat of Killian Hayes playing horribly replacing Ivey.  He is still raw, but he is an aggressive scorer, has shown shooting glimpses, and has playmaking potential.  Getting more reps will only help Detroit see what they have in him and allow him to develop as they would like him.

Best Case Scenario:  Cade Cunningham is an All-Star, they make the Play-In, and end up competing for a playoff spot while several young players are competitive.

Worst Case Scenario:  More of the same; they stink, the lineup is clunky, and they end up with the 5^th pick yet again despite having the best odds of getting the top pick.

 

12:  Chicago Bulls

Another year, another season where the Chicago Bulls will compete for a lower Play-In seed.  Now that DeMar DeRozan is gone, they might be able to start a rebuild…as soon as they can trade Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic.  LaVine is a talented scorer who is incredibly efficient, but his contract (this year it is $43M, but there is another year and a player option that gets up to nearly $49M) and knees are not good for what his role would be as a third option on a winning team; on the other hand, Vucevic is on a more fair contract ($20M this year, one more year remaining) and is a good scorer and rebounder, but he is a horrible defender, and his shot has totally evaporated, reducing his value.  They took a risk this offseason and traded for Josh Giddey, who wasn’t a good fit in OKC, but is a great playmaker and rebounder at 6’8 who is best pushing in transition (think early career Lonzo Ball).  Last season, Coby White emerged as a combo guard who thrived with an increased role; he is so skilled both on and off the ball, and his size makes him difficult to deal with defensively.  They also have Patrick Williams (a raw combo forward who is a good shooter with nice size and defensive upside), Ayo Dosunmu (a versatile scorer who is a great shooter and has shown glimpses defensively), Lonzo Ball (he hasn’t played in 2.5 seasons due to injuries, but was an amazing defender, shooter, and playmaker prior to the injuries), Torrey Craig (a steady 3-and-D player who seems to play at his best when with Phoenix), Jalen Smith (a strong shooting and finishing big), Jevon Carter (a good defensive guard who is a good shooter), Matas Buzelis (a raw big with some upside regarding multiple skills, though I’m lower on him), Chris Duarte (a good shooting wing who hasn’t improved since his rookie year), and Dalen Terry (a raw but athletic wing who has shown glimpses as a finisher and defender).  This team is a really weird one; it shouldn’t compete, but it’s Chicago, so they probably will and then will find themselves accidentally in the Play-In mix.

X-Factor:  Now that Chicago traded for Josh Giddey, there are a lot of ball dominant guards who will be competing for minutes in Giddey, Coby White, and Zach LaVine; on top of that, Lonzo Ball is hoping to make a comeback to the NBA after missing 2.5 seasons.  With all of these guards who will likely get a good number of minutes and shots, I wonder how Ayo Dosunmu is going to be used this year.  Dosunmu is an aggressive scorer who is really good at getting to the rim and is especially creative and crafty at finishing.  On top of that, he is a great shooter and is especially skilled at shooting off the pass.  I expect he will come off the bench, but I have no idea how many he looks as long as Giddey, White, and LaVine are healthy and remain with the team (the last being the primary focus of health and trade possibilities).

Best Case Scenario:  From a winning standpoint, they are a Play-In team and both Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic reestablish their value.  From a realistic standpoint, they get the number 1 pick, and several players look like they will be part of their future.

Worst Case Scenario:  They try for the Play-In again…I mean, they struggle mightily, several players are injured, and their young players leave more questions than answers…and then end up in the Play-In.

 

13:  Charlotte Hornets

There is a bit of variance about where Charlotte could end up finishing, as they could be a Play-In team, though it all hinges on the health of one player:  LaMelo Ball.  When healthy, Ball is an offensive force, as he is an aggressive scorer, good shooter, great passer who is improving as a playmaker, and has awesome size; while he isn’t a good defender, I think part of that is how few reps he’s had, as he has shown glimpses on that end.  The biggest issue is that he is often hurt; he has played just 184 games in his 4 seasons in the league, and just 58 games in the last 2 seasons, so I can’t bank on him being healthy in my predictions (though I hope he is; he is an absolute blast to watch).  Brandon Miller had a promising rookie year, especially in the second half, here he demonstrated a nice shooting stroke and finishing ability, while also showing improvements on the defensive end; I’m curious to see how he is able to play in year two if Ball is more in the fray, especially now that he is more comfortable with the NBA athleticism and physicality.  The team has several players who could provide value, including Miles Bridges (an aggressive scorer who is a streaky but solid shooter), Mark Williams (a raw but athletic 2-way big who has amazing upside, but unfortunately hasn’t been healthy yet), Grant Williams (a competitive forward who is a good 3-and-D type forward of the bench), Josh Green (a skilled 3-and-D wing who is also a good finisher), Tidjane Salaün (a rookie forward who is raw, athletic, and certainly not lacking confidence), Tre Mann (a steady guard who is an aggressive scorer, good shooter, and improving playmaker), Nick Richards (a solid big man who is a great finisher), Vasilije Micic (a big point guard who is a great finisher and good playmaker), Cody Martin (a wing who looked like a solid shooter prior to being injured the last two years), and Nick Smith (an aggressive scorer who looks to be a good shooter).  If they’re healthy enough, I wouldn’t be shocked if they end up in the 10^th seed (if Ball hadn’t had injuries, I would project this); the issue is that I can’t project Ball to be insanely healthy.

X-Factor:  While Charlotte has been struggling and acquiring draft picks for several years, they have struggled to have a lot of success stories, especially sticking with those who could play a solid role.  The biggest need they have in that regard is a guard who could play both alongside Ball (if he’s healthy) and can also back him up while being a lead playmaker.  Why not Tre Mann for that role?  If the shooting touch he showed last year season is real (I think it is), he looks well on his way to be able to play off the ball as needed; I also think he’s improving enough as a playmaker where he could easily be a backup point guard.  The defense when he and Ball are on the court together will be atrocious, but they’re not trying to win a championship yet, so they can let the two develop.

Best Case Scenario:  Ball has a healthy year, Miller takes a leap, and multiple players exceed expectations, making them a Play-In team that genuinely has a shot for the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario:  Ball still isn’t healthy, Miller doesn’t improve, and there are questions about all the other supporting cast members, while they also miss out on one of the top picks in the draft.

 

14:  Brooklyn Nets

After reacquiring their draft picks, it’s safe to assume that they will be losing quite a bit.  I am guessing that Cam Thomas will be among the league leaders in points given how high volume of a scorer he is; he also is a good shooter, which helps out his cause.  It might sound insane to say that Nic Claxton is their best player, but he is an exceptional defender and great finisher, as well as a great rebounder and improving playmaker.  They also have Cam Johnson (a good shooter and finisher who is a solid defensive player), Dorian Finney-Smith (a skilled and versatile 3-and-D wing), Bojan Bogdanovic (a talented shooter with nice size), Dennis Schröder (an aggressive scorer who is a better playmaker than he gets credit for), Ben Simmons (he was previously a great playmaker and defender; maybe a comeback is there, though I’m not holding my breath anymore), Day’Ron Sharpe (an athletic big who is still raw but has shown impressive upside as a finisher and defender), Ziaire Williams (an athletic wing who is raw but an aggressive scorer and impressive athlete), Trendon Watford (a solid finisher, shooter and defender as a forward), and Jalen Wilson (a forward with 3-and-D upside).  They’re at the start of a rebuild, so they’ll be bad this year; the biggest thing to watch with them is probably how many players get traded.

X-Factor:  After showing upside as a rookie in the 2021-22 season, injuries ruined Ziaire Williams’ season the following year, and he looked rough upon returning in a healthy season last year.  He is a skilled athlete and aggressive scorer who has shown glimpses as a finisher and defender, though he is still incredibly raw.  The Grizzlies gave up on him in part because they’re trying to win, but Brooklyn isn’t, so they have the opportunity to play around with him.  If he clicks, he could be a valuable piece for their future that they didn’t give up for much.

Best Case Scenario:  They’ll stink either way, so the best thing is to get good returns for veterans, get some production and upside from their younger players, and get the top pick.

Worst Case Scenario:  Not only do they stink, but they get a bad pick and nobody looks promising for the future.

 

15:  Washington Wizards

The nicest way I can say this is that this season will be rough; that said, Washington should want that since they are early in a rebuild.  While he is still very raw, Bilal Coulibaly has shown immense potential, as he showed potential as a shooter, finisher, and defender; if he can work on his handle and playmaking, he could be a star in the league.   They have 3 rookies who were first round picks in Alex Sarr (a raw big man who has upside as a defender, finisher, and some as a passer/ball handler for a big, though it will likely be a roller coaster for a couple of years), Bub Carrington (an aggressive scoring guard with playmaking ability who is so confident but horrible shot selection), and Kyshawn George (a great shooter and passer with nice size which could make up for all his others deficiencies in the right situations).  Kyle Kuzma is still with the team after turning down the opportunity to go to Dallas (which probably worked well for Dallas), which has continued to feed the narrative that he would prefer to put up monster numbers for a bad team, though he is an impressive scorer.  Outside of this, it really is a weird team of okay veterans and okay rookies, including Jonas Valanciunas (a strong and reliable big who is a great rebounder and finisher in the paint), Jordan Poole (an high-volume scorer who appears to have lost his confidence since getting punched by his then teammate Draymond Green), Malcolm Brogdon (a consistent combo guard who is a great scorer and good playmaker when healthy), Corey Kispert (an excellent shooter who is efficient from anywhere), Saddiq Bey (a wing/forward who has shown glimpses, but still hasn’t found the consistent success he had during his rookie year), and Marvin Bagley (he’s young and isn’t what some thought he would be in the draft, though he has shown glimpses that he can be a good backup center on offense).  This will be bad, but there are some bright spots.

X-Factor:  I would not bet on most of the players on this team being a part of Washington’s rebuild (especially anyone above the age of 25), but Corey Kispert is right on the edge of that range at the age of 25.  His shooting, cutting, finishing, and offensive IQ are all things that could make him a valuable part of a winning team or help his teammates improve on a rebuilding team.  The biggest question is if he can be a good defender; while he is a solid athlete, he still looks lost on that end of the court.  I don’t think he will ever be a great defender, but if he can develop into an average defender, then Washington will already have a quality role player on their team when they are ready to compete.

Best Case Scenario:  Unless something weird happens, they should stink; that said, if they have at least 4 players who look like they should be a part of their future, then they are well on their way.  Getting the number 1 pick would also be a great bonus in a loaded draft.

Worst Case Scenario:  Their rookies struggle, Coulibaly regresses, and there are no bright spots for the future, suggesting that this will be a brutal rebuild for years to come.  On top of that, they end up missing one of the top picks.

 

 

 

West

1:  Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City had a better year than most expected last season (I expected them to be the 2-seed going into the year, and they even exceeded my expectations), and none of it looks like a fluke that cannot be repeated or built on, especially since they made moves to improve.  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the best players in the game right now, and he is an amazing scorer, shooter, and defender who is also an underrated playmaker; it’s clear that he wants to win so bad and is willing to put in so much effort to get there.  Chet Holmgren had an amazing rookie year where he demonstrated that he is a valuable part of this team with his shooting and rim protection; while he is still kind of skinny, he will naturally gain strength as he continues to be in an NBA workout setting (think of how Kevin Durant and Brandon Ingram were both considered skinny upon entering the league but nobody commented on that within a few years).  The most pleasant surprise from last season was probably how well Jalen Williams played for the team; while he looked like a key player, his shooting, finishing, and defense all took a huge leap to the point where he looks like he could be an All-Star as soon as this season.  On top of that, they have Luguent Dort (an impressive 3-and-D wing willing to take on anybody), the recently traded-for Alex Caruso (an excellent defensive guard who appears more confident on offense, especially with his jumper), the newly signed Isaiah Hartenstein (a valuable big who is a great defender, rebounder and finisher, though he is recovering from a broken hand), Isaiah Joe (an excellent shooter who is a great off-ball mover), Cason Wallace (an impressive young combo guard who is a good defender and shot better than I expected), Aaron Wiggins (an efficient and good shooting wing who is a good defender), Kenrich Williams (a sharpshooting forward who by all accounts loves being a role player and leader for them), Jaylin Williams (a good shooting backup big), and Dillon Jones (a strong rookie forward who has shooting upside and played better than I expected in preseason).  I think they’re the best team in the West this year, but even if they don’t make it to the NBA Finals, they are on their way to be a potential dynasty.

X-Factor:  While I expected Cason Wallace would fit better in the NBA than he did in college since players of his prototype (a strong defensive combo guard) tend to play better in the NBA, I did not expect him to play as well as he did.  He looked like an NBA ready defender for a good chunk of the season, which is rare for any rookies.  On top of that, he was amazing from 3; while I expected he would be a solid 3-point shooter within a couple years, I wasn’t expecting him to top 40% as a rookie.  I don’t believe this rookie year was a fluke, so now the question arises of just how good he could be.  While I was high on him when he was drafted (I had him 8^th on my unofficial big board), I wonder if his shooting unlocks a higher potential.  On top of that, he probably won’t need to do much on the ball, but if he can do more on-ball, that would make him such a great player.

Best Case Scenario:  The new pieces fit perfectly, several players make a jump (including first time All-Star Jalen Williams), and they win the title.

Worst Case Scenario:  Some past injury concerns arise, they slip in the standings and lose in the first round of the playoffs, and several key players regress.

 

2:  Minnesota Timberwolves

After their second ever Western Conference run, Minnesota decided that the perfect thing to do was to make a cost-cutting measure in trading Karl-Anthony Towns that brought back some depth, but a clunky fit that lowers their ceiling.  That said, they are still a contending team.  Anthony Edwards has emerged as a superstar who wants to play the part, and he is an excellent scorer, shooter, and defender who is improving as a playmaker; he is still young and has youth mistakes on the court, but those will continue to minimize as he gains more experience.  After I declared Rudy Gobert to not be the best defender on the team prior to last year (I thought Jaden McDaniels would be better since I thought Gobert was declining; oops), he proved me wrong and won his 4^th Defensive Player of the Year award while absolutely dominating on that end of the court throughout the season; he is also a great finisher and rebounder, though you really don’t want him doing much more than finishing and setting screens on offense.  After trading for Julius Randle, I question his fit with the team; while he is a good playmaker for a big forward and a more consistent defender in the pick and roll than Towns, his jumper is streaky at best, and I don’t see him being as willing to play off the ball as Towns was.  They also have Jaden McDaniels (one of the best defensive forwards in the league who has some untapped offensive potential), Mike Conley (a steady point guard who has brought calmness and reliability to the team, and is a good playmaker and shooter), Naz Reid (the reigning Sixth Man of the Year who is a great shooter and finisher as a big while also improving as a defender), Donte DiVincenzo (a talented 3-and-D guard who is also a solid finisher), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (a backup scoring guard who is a good shooter and defender), Joe Ingles (a great playmaker and shooting forward), Rob Dillingham (a smaller rookie guard who is a dynamic scorer and good shooter), and Terrence Shannon (a rookie who projects to be a 3-and-D wing who also has some on-ball skill).  I’m pretty high on them overall, even if I don’t get the Randle fit.

X-Factor:  After effectively wandering through the desert for his first four seasons, where he either struggled with his jumper, defense, or minutes, Nickeil Alexander-Walker found a role in Minnesota as a key player off the bench.  His shooting ability, defense, and confidence made him an important player who found time in every game.  That said, the natural question is if this is real.  Even if the shot isn’t consistent (though I think the last two seasons have indicated its legitimacy), he always had defensive upside, though there was either inconsistency or a learning curve that was more of the issue rather than not being a good defender.  I think he is comfortable now and will continue to be a reliable key player for Minnesota.

Best Case Scenario:  Edwards is an MVP finalist, both Gobert and McDaniels are named to the All-Defense First Team, Randle fits, Reid wins another Sixth Man of the Year (unless DiVincenzo beats him out), the rookies are successful, and they win a championship.

Worst Case Scenario:  Their older players regress, Randle is a horrible fit, the rookies look horrible, and they lose in the first round without getting home court advantage, causing Edwards to question the team’s focus on winning.

 

3:  Denver Nuggets

After another offseason where Denver lost a key role player (this time losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope), they look a little thin, especially with some injury concerns among their core.  The most reliable part of this team is Nikola Jokic’s stardom, as he is one of the most dominant offensive players I have ever seen, as he is an elite finisher, shooter, playmaker, and rebounder as a big; he also is almost never injured.  The biggest question for this team might be what they get from Jamal Murray; when he’s on, he’s a dynamic scorer and excellent shooter, but he has been inconsistent and is often injured.  The biggest issue is that he’s being paid like the second option, so they need him to play at his best if they want to win it all.  Aaron Gordon has been amazing in Denver and has consistently been a top-3 player for them; he is an amazing finisher and an exceptional and versatile defender, making up for his lack of a consistent jumper.  Other players on the team include Michael Porter Jr. (an elite shooter and great finisher who is often injured, though was healthy last season), Christian Braun (a skilled wing and good athlete who Denver needs to make a jump), Peyton Watson (an athletic wing who took a leap defensively last year), Russell Westbrook (an athletic guard who provides a lot of chaos), Dario Saric (a big who is a great shooter and finisher), Julian Strawther (a wing with upside as a 3-and-D player), Vlatko Cancar (an efficient bigger forward coming back from an injury), and Zeke Nnaji (a backup big who they need to work on his shot).  There is a lot that needs to go right in order for them to win (especially Murray and Braun playing at a high level), but Jokic alone is enough to contend.

X-Factor:  The natural selection to have starting in the wake of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s departure is Christian Braun, though I don’t think his skillset is as natural a fit in the starting spot.  If Julian Strawther is more efficient this year from the field, I think that his skillset makes a lot of sense in this role.  In particular, he projects to be a good shooter both on and off the dribble, which I think makes him a cleaner fit, even if he won’t be dribbling a ton.  He also is a little bigger, which would make them even more difficult to score on.  That said, if he struggles, then it likely makes more sense to play Braun.

Best Case Scenario:  Everyone is healthy and plays well all the way to their championship.

Worst Case Scenario:  Injuries add up and they end up losing in the first round of the playoffs.  On top of that, Michael Malone leaves the team, calling into question what the front office is doing.

 

4:  Dallas Mavericks

After Dallas made a run to the NBA Finals which was only slightly shocking (while I didn’t predict it, it took P.J. Washington magically was an elite 3-point shooter), it shouldn’t be considered a shock if Dallas again finishes near the top of the West, though it’s not a lock.  Luka Doncic is one of the best players in the game, as he is an elite scorer, great shooter, exceptional playmaker, and awesome rebounder; while his defensive effort has fluctuated, he is a good defender when focused, in large part due to his size and IQ.  As polarizing/controversial as he is, Kyrie Irving is an elite scorer and shooter with one of the best handles I have ever seen; the catch is that he is almost always injured, as he last topped 60 games in 2018-19.  Outside of them, they have the newly acquired Klay Thompson (an elite shooting wing who, while not in his prime and most people like to focus on his weaknesses, is automatic off the pass), P.J. Washington (a great finishing forward and defender who needs to cut back a bit on his 3-point attempts if he’s going to shoot like he did last year), Dereck Lively (a talented young big who looks like a great finisher and defender), Daniel Gafford (an impressive shot blocking and dunking big who is great at the pick and roll), Naji Marshall (a good defensive forward who shot better than ever last year), Jaden Hardy (an aggressive scorer who is already a good shooter), Maxi Kleber (a talented shooting big who has dealt with injures over the last few years), Spencer Dinwiddie (an aggressive scoring who is a streaky shooter, but has had his best shooting years when alongside Doncic), Dante Exum (a great defensive guard who improved as a shooter and finisher, though he is injured for at least 3 months), Dwight Powell (a steady big who is a good finisher), and Quentin Grimes (a younger wing who has shown upside as a 3-and-D player).  I get it if people don’t love them, but I feel pretty optimistic about them; they have so much depth that even if several players don’t work out, they can try others.  On top of that, they are well positioned with contracts to move a player if a team is desperate to make a trade without getting a pick back.

X-Factor:  While he is still young and raw, I’m surprised that Jaden Hardy hasn’t played a little more.  He is an aggressive scorer who needs to work on efficiency and shot selection, but he is a great athlete and is already an impressive shooter.  I think he makes more sense off the bench since he does operate on-ball a lot still, but he could play a major role for the team.  His make-or-break skill is likely his defense; while he has the athleticism, he often lacks focus on that end of the court, though I think part of that is his youth and getting used to NBA defenses.  I’ve been high on him ever since Dallas got him in the second round; I think they have something special in him.

Best Case Scenario:  Everyone is healthy enough for them to make another deep run in the playoffs, potentially even challenging for a championship.  After the year, Doncic signs the supermax and vows to stay in Dallas for life.

Worst Case Scenario:  Injuries add up, and this season is closer to 2023 than 2024, making Doncic question his future with the team.

 

5:  Phoenix Suns

Phoenix is again a talented team that has upside, but it they are so many injury concerns again.  Kevin Durant remains one of the best players in the game and is a prolific offensive player and scorer who is an underrated defender, though he has dealt with injuries ever since his Achilles injury; in particular, last year was the first season she even played more than 55 games since his final year in Golden State (he played 75 games).  Devin Booker is an amazing shooter and scorer who is incredibly efficient; this season, he won’t be a full time point guard, which will allow him to score more easily.  The biggest question is what Bradley Beal will be; he is an impressive scorer and will be better not as the point guard, but he isn’t a good defender and hasn’t played more than 60 games since 2018-19.  They also have Grayson Allen (a sharpshooting wing who is an underrated defender), Tyus Jones (a skilled point guard who is a reliable playmaker and shooter), Jusuf Nurkic (a good rebounding big who is a good finisher, though his ability has faded a bit due to injuries), Royce O’Neale (a solid 3-and-D wing), Josh Okogie (a good defensive player who is a poor shooter), Damion Lee (a good shooting guard who is coming off an injury), Mason Plumlee (a solid backup big who has a high IQ), Monte Morris (a good shooting and scoring backup point guard), and Ryan Dunn (a rookie wing who is an amazing defender and shot well in the preseason).  Phoenix has a high upside if everyone is healthy, but there are still so many injury concerns.

X-Factor:  Josh Okogie has consistently been a great defender throughout his career and has been able to consistently find a role due to that.  The issue for him has been on the offensive end, where he has been a negative.  His free throw percentage has been average, so I would figure that he could at least be an average shooter, but he only topped 33% from deep once.  With more wings and guards who could compete for playing time, how is Okogie going to earn minutes if he can’t do anything on offense?  He needs to improve at shooting at the minimum.

Best Case Scenario:  They are healthy this year and they end up being playoff contenders.

Worst Case Scenario:  All their best players are injured and they struggle while missing out on a playoff berth, putting into question what the team is.

 

6:  New Orleans Pelicans

This team never ceases to confuse me, and this year might be the most confusing yet, as they feel like a team that couldn’t find one more trade and eventually just gave up.  Zion Williamson is one of the best offensive players in the game and is an awesome finisher, underrated playmaker, and improving defender; that said, there will always be questions about his health, conditioning, and reduced athleticism, making him a difficult player to build around.  They acquired Dejounte Murray in the offseason for a lighter package than I expected, and he is coming off a year where he had a career best year in 3P%, 2P%, and PPG while also being a good playmaker; while his defense has taken a hit over the last couple years, I expect the decrease in offensive responsibility will allow him to go back to the high level of defense he demonstrated with San Antonio.  While I have always been high on him and felt like he is underrated, Brandon Ingram remains a clunky fit who I thought was going to be moved this offseason; while he is a natural scorer and shooter with a nice handle and underrated playmaking ability, he is an inconsistent defender who doesn’t love shooting off the pass.  They also have CJ McCollum (a high scoring guard with a great jumper), Trey Murphy (a talented young 3-and-D wing who is improving on the ball), Herb Jones (one of the best defensive forwards in the game who is also developing a jumper), Jose Alvarado (a pesky defender who has also developed a solid jumper), Jordan Hawkins (a young wing who is a great shooter), Daniel Theis (a steady, versatile backup big), and Yves Missi (a raw rookie big man with potential as a rim runner).  Ultimately, the season depends on Williamson’s health, but they feel incomplete; while they feel well-equipped to make a trade, they were resistant to in the offseason after acquiring Murray.

X-Factor:  While I think Herb Jones is better than how I would normally define the X-Factor, the truth is that his fit at center could make or break New Orlean’s season.  It was announced that Jones would start at center, which is an interesting decision since he’s only 6’8 and plays more like a forward than a center.  While I am confident the offense won’t be an issue, how will the rebounding and defensive schemes be altered or face difficulties due to their small lineup?  I wouldn’t be surprised if they try to get a center at the deadline, but his performance might be the second biggest aspect of how New Orleans performs after Zion Williamson’s health.

Best Case Scenario:  The whole team is healthy and meshes well, resulting in them making a deep playoff run.

Worst Case Scenario:  Williamson is injured, the fit is very clunky, they get smoked in the paint and on the boards, and they badly miss the playoffs.

 

7:  Sacramento Kings

Sacramento does looks like they are better than they were last year, though their upside isn’t amazing compared to some of the other contending teams.  Domantas Sabonis is a great finisher, playmaking, and rebounding big who would be the best playmaking big in the league if Nikola Jokic wasn’t there, though he is a poor defender.  They just signed DeMar DeRozan, who is still an impressive scorer and underrated playmaker who absolutely raises any team’s floor.  De’Aaron Fox is such a clutch player who is an aggressive scorer, improving shooter, and solid playmaker; I’ve loved him so much ever since he was drafted in 2017.  Keegan Murray is already an amazing fit with this team who is a good shooter and finisher and improving defender; he also has shown some ability on the ball as well.  They also have Malik Monk (a valuable scoring guard off the bench who is a great shooter and also improving as a playmaker), Kevin Huerter (a great shooter off the ball), Trey Lyles (a good shooting backup big), Keon Ellis (a solid 3-and-D big guard), Jordan McLaughlin (a solid backup guard who is a good defender), and Devin Carter (a rookie guard with defensive ability and shooting upside, though he is going to be injured for part of the season).  I don’t think they have championship upside and it will be tough for them to reach the Conference finals, but I would be shocked if they missed the Play-In.

X-Factor:  Unless something crazy happens, there are 4 players who are starting in Domantas Sabonis, DeMar DeRozan, De’Aaron Fox, and Keegan Murray.  While there are a few different players who could be the fourth start, the cleanest choice is Keon Ellis.  Ellis is a good shooter and finisher who doesn’t need a lot of shots.  On top of that, he looks like a good defender with good size, so the Kings could really utilize his size.  He probably won’t finish games, but could be a key piece for them.

Best Case Scenario:  They finish 4^th and win the first round while challenging for the potential of a Conference Finals.

Worst Case Scenario:  The defense doesn’t work and they end up in the Play-In.

 

8:  Houston Rockets

Houston is clearly trying to make the playoffs and are so deep, but I genuinely don’t know how they’ll have enough minutes for everyone or who will miss out, especially since they have 14 players who I could see getting minutes.  Alperen Sengun was an All-Star candidate who is an incredible finisher, rebounder, and playmaker in the paint as a big, though he is still not a good defender, which could limit their ceiling.  Jabari Smith Jr. has become immensely underrated since he was drafted right behind Paolo Banchero and Chet Holmgren, but he is such a talented forward who is a versatile defender, great shooter, and is improving on the ball; while he is viewed more as a role player, I genuinely believe he has the upside to be the second-best player on the team.  Jalen Green is such a weird player with an Ime Udoka team, but he is such an aggressive scorer with some playmaking potential who is improving as a defender; the big issues are that he is not a consistent shooter, and he is an inefficient scorer due in large part to shot selection, though he went on a tear at the end of the season.  Houston also could get minutes from Fred VanVleet (a talented guard who is a good playmaker, shooter, and defender despite his side), Amen Thompson (a versatile defender and playmaker who played a massive role last year, though he still is not a good shooter), Dillon Brooks (a pesky defensive wing who shot well from deep last year), Tari Eason (a versatile combo forward who is a great defender and efficient scorer coming off an injury), Cam Whitmore (a young, aggressive scorer and good shooter who can light it up in stretches and looks at home in the NBA), Reed Sheppard (a rookie sharpshooter with playmaking potential), Steven Adams (a strong, physical defender and rebounder who is coming off an injury), Jeff Green (a versatile forward who has become a source of consistency after years of inconsistency), Jae’Sean Tate (a solid defensive forward), Jock Landale (a consistent backup big), and Aaron Holiday (a great shooting smaller guard).  While it’s possible that Houston doesn’t make the playoffs, I think they’ll be serious competitors for a spot.  On top of that, definitely watch them for a major trade.

X-Factor:  At this point, it feels safe to say that Fred VanVleet will not be in the long-term plans for Houston, though he will be a key player this year.  After him, the obvious options for a potential point guard are Jalen Green (who isn’t a point guard) and Reed Sheppard (who I like off the ball as well).  While Alperen Sengun is a great playmaker so Reed Sheppard would work, why not Amen Thompson?  While Thompson played more of a forward role, he ended up defending everyone from 1-5 at different points this past season.  That said, a big part of why I was so high on him during last year’s draft (I had him second on my unofficial big board after Victor Wembenyama) is because I thought he was a point guard at 6’7.  He is a bad shooter, but he is so amazing at just about everything else already that I think he would be an interesting point guard for Houston.

Best Case Scenario:  Several young players make a jump and Houston makes it to the second round of the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario:  Multiple young players regress and Houston falls out of the playoffs.

 

9:  Memphis Grizzlies

There is a lot of variance about where this team can finish; it’s possible that they’re back at the top of the West, and it’s also possible that they miss the Play-In.  They have Ja Morant back, who is an explosive scorer and amazing playmaker, though his shot is streaky, he isn’t a focused defender, and he is often injured.  Despite having an off year on defense last season, he is still an amazing defender and strong offensive player who showcased more of his ability than he would have in most seasons.  Desmond Bane has emerged as a strong second or third option, as he is great scorer and shooter who also has shown playmaking and defensive ability.  They also have Marcus Smart (a great defensive and playmaking guard who gets a bit too trigger happy with his shot), Zach Edey (a rookie big who was a great college player, though I don’t think will translate as Memphis seems to expect, considering he is not good in transition), Luke Kennard (one of the league’s best off-ball shooters who sometimes loses his confidence), Brandon Clarke (an efficient finishing backup big who is a solid defender and is now healthy), Santi Aldama (a good shooting and finishing big forward), GG Jackson (an aggressive and talented forward who will miss at least 3 months with injuries), Vince Williams Jr. (a good shooting and finishing guard with defensive potential), Jake LaRavia (a solid shooting forward with some upside), Jaylen Wells (a sharpshooting rookie wing who has some upside), and John Konchar (a good defensive wing and a solid finisher).  I feel like it all depends on health and how Edey adapts.  I’m lower on Memphis since I think they’ll be shocked by how much he struggles in transition and in a faster paced style.

X-Factor:  Luke Kennard twice led the league in 3P%, but there are times where he appears hesitant, almost as if he loses his confidence.  Pro athletes often end up being so confidence that it’s shocking to see anyone who is so good at one skill to ever not have 100% confidence.  When Kennard is on his game, he is so valuable and cannot be left open.  He is especially a great player to have around Morant due to the shooting touch and the ease in which he can get open.

Best Case Scenario:  Most players are healthy, Morant has an amazing return, Edey wins Rookie of the Year, and they end up in the Western Conference Finals.

Worst Case Scenario:  They’re injured again, Edey doesn’t fit in the NBA, and they end up finishing in 13^th.

 

10:  Golden State Warriors

Sometimes, the hardest thing is to recognize a former contender is no longer a championship contender, and that appears to be the state that Golden State is in.  That said, in a Western Conference with several teams competing for the playoffs, they are right in the mix for a spot.  Stephen Curry is still one of the most dangerous shooters in the game, and it feels like the game is over if he has the ball in his hands at the end of a game; he has dealt with some random injuries over the past few years, so they have to be prepared for 15-20 games where he is out.  Draymond Green is in an interesting situation at this point in his career, as he is still so valuable given his defense and playmaking, but he appears to be resistant to shoot a lot of times; he also is coming off a year with multiple suspensions, which is something that needs to change if the team wants to compete.  While he is still a little raw since he is still so young, I think Jonathan Kuminga has star potential and should be a no brainer to start and feature on this team given his athleticism, finishing ability, and upside defensively and with his shot.  The team also features Andrew Wiggins (a forward who looked like a great fit in Golden State with his defense, shooting, and competitiveness, though his last two seasons have been rough due in part to personal/family reasons), Brandin Podziemski (a versatile young wing who can do a lot on and off the ball), Kevon Looney (a valuable big who thrives defensively and rebounding who is coming off a tough season), De’Anthony Melton (a great defensive combo guard and solid shooter who is coming back from an injury), Buddy Hield (an elite shooter who is one of the best off-ball shooters of all time given his volume and accuracy), Kyle Anderson (a smart forward who can also operate as a backup point guard), Moses Moody (a young wing who projects to be a good 3-and-D player), Trayce Jackson-Davis (a young big who looks like a good finisher with defensive upside), and Gary Payton II (a talented defensive guard who is oft injured).  I think the loss of Klay Thompson majorly impacts their offense and possibly upside, but they do have a deep team; there are just a lot of what-ifs needed for them to go far.

X-Factor:  Kevon Looney has been with Golden State since being drafted in 2015 and emerged as a key starter in their Championship run back in 2022.  His rebounding, defense, competitiveness, and willingness to not be a primary scoring option.  However, he struggled on both ends of the court last year and ended up losing his starting role.  I personally believe this was just a rough season for him, but there are questions about how he will fit with the team going forward, especially with Draymond Green still playing a key role and Jonathan Kuminga rising, as both have to be considered non-shooters at this time; the emergence of Trayce Jackson-Davis also complicates what he is on this team.

Best Case Scenario:  None of their key players get hurt, Green never gets suspended, several players make a jump, and the team gets home court advantage while making a deep run in the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario:  Curry gets hurt, Green is suspended for half the year, Kuminga’s jump is a fluke, and the team badly misses the playoffs.

 

11:  Los Angeles Lakers

Another year, another season where I don’t know what to do with the Lakers.  I personally am lower on them this year since they were a 7-seed last year (due to winning the Play-In) who got worse and had great luck with the health of their two stars, but I don’t want to rule out their stars.  It’s insane that LeBron James is still one of the best players in the game despite turning 40 in December; he is an amazing scorer, playmaker, athlete, and defender who has developed his 3 nicely, though last year was the first time since he left Cleveland that he reached 70 games, so injuries have to be a concern with him.  I’m not banking on Anthony Davis taking over this team, but he is still an elite second option, as he is an amazing finisher, defender, and rebounder who is an underrated passer; the two issues with him are his health (last year was the first time he played 70 games since 2017-18) and him having more confidence in his jumper than he should.  The team also has Austin Reaves (a great shooter and finisher who is also a solid defender and playmaker), D’Angelo Russell (a great shooter and underrated passer who can catch on fire for stretches), Rui Hachimura (a strong finisher who shot well from 3 last year), Jared Vanderbilt (a great defensive big forward and strong finisher who is recovering from injuries), Gabe Vincent (a solid off-ball guard who is a good shooter and is coming off an injury), Max Christie (a great shooting wing who has 3-and-D upside), Jaxson Hayes (a raw big who is a strong finisher and has upside defensively and as a shooter), Dalton Knecht (a rookie who projects to be a good shooter and scorer), Christian Wood (a big who is a skilled scorer off the bench, though he is a poor defender, is dealing with an injury, and has yet to help a winning team in the playoffs), Cam Reddish (look, he’ll get minutes because a bunch of people are high on him as a 3-and-D player, especially defensively, though I don’t get it).  There’s a wide variance for results; they could get home court advantage, and they could finish 13^th; I’m lower on them though.

X-Factor:  L.A. has a lot of bench guys who are recovering from injuries or have been inconsistent, which makes Max Christie so valuable.  While he hasn’t played a ton, he has already shown that he is a great shooter with nice off-ball skill.  He is also a good athlete who has great size, so he projects to be good, but it depends how quickly he puts everything together.  He has the opportunity to play a lot this year with L.A. dealing with several injuries.

Best Case Scenario:  They get home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs and make a run to the Conference Finals with their whole team healthy.

Worst Case Scenario:  James and Davis (as well as several bench players) deal with injuries and the team finishes near the bottom of the conference.

 

12:  Los Angeles Clippers

I was a little worried about the Clippers when Kawhi Leonard was dealing with injuries going into the year, but now there is even more of a reason to be scared.  Leonard is one of the best players in the game when healthy, as he is a natural scorer and great defender, but he is now sidelined indefinitely due to knee inflammation.  In his absence, you can bet on James Harden trying to play his Houston style where he is ball dominant, where he will probably have success due to his shooting and playmaker; the issue for him is that as he has aged, he has lost a step getting into the paint, which has taken a hit on his 2-point efficiency.  The team also has Norm Powell (a great shooter and efficient scoring wing), Terance Mann (a quality 3-and-D player who is so reliable), Ivaca Zubac (a skilled traditional big who should fit very well with Harden), Derrick Jones Jr. (a great finisher and versatile defensive forward who shot better than he ever has from deep last year), Nicholas Batum (a versatile forward who is an efficient shooter and finishing while also a good defender), Amir Coffey (a sharpshooting wing who is also an improving finisher), Kris Dunn (a good defensive guard who has shown glimpses of being efficient), Kevin Porter Jr. (an aggressive scorer and good shooter coming off a season where he didn’t play due to legal issues), and Mo Bamba (an athletic big with glimpses of finishing, shooting, and rim protection).  I’m low on this team, though they are deep; we’ll see how quickly Leonard comes back and if he can stay healthy.

X-Factor:  While always a strong finisher and defender, Derrick Jones Jr. had his best shooting season from 3 last year, breaking 34% from deep for the first time.  I have no question that he will have success catching lobs from James Harden and dunking, but the big question is how real his shot is.  If he regresses back to under 33% from deep (which he shot less than prior to the last two seasons), what will his role be if Harden is playing the ball dominant role?  Non-shooters didn’t usually succeed with Harden unless they were pick-and-roll finishers as a big, so we’ll see how this goes.

Best Case Scenario:  Leonard is healthy sooner than I expect, Harden plays well, the bench is awesome, and they make a run in the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario:  Leonard misses the whole season, Harden is not Houston Harden, and they badly miss the playoffs.

 

13:  San Antonio Spurs

I have the Spurs finishing 13^th since I think they’re too young to make a greater jump, but it wouldn’t be a shock if they make the playoffs without having to play in the Play-In.  His rookie year has shown that Victor Wembenyama is the real deal; while he’s still a little raw with his shot selection and shot making, he is an elite shot blocker and defender, strong rebounder, and great finisher already.  While he is skinny, he should organically get stronger as he does more NBA workouts (see my earlier point about Chet Holmgren).  While he will miss the start of this season due to injury, Devin Vassell has emerged as a potential star, as he has improved his 3-and-D skillset to showcase a lot more ability on the ball than I projected when he entered the draft.  While Chris Paul is not a star at this point, I think he will provide a lot of value for this team as both a veteran and experienced playmaker.  The Spurs also have Harrison Barnes (a consistent and beloved veteran combo forward who is an efficient shooter and finisher and an adept defender), Jeremy Sochan (a raw forward who has shown glimpses with finishing, defending, and playmaking, though the shot remains a concern), Keldon Johnson (an aggressive scoring forward whose shot is streaky), Tre Jones (a steady playmaking point guard who looks like a good backup point guard), Zach Collins (a solid finishing and shooting big), Stephon Castle (a competitive and high-IQ rookie guard who had upside as a playmaker and could be a league average shooter), Malaki Branham (an aggressive scorer who is a good shooter), Julian Champagnie (a good shooter and finisher with some defensive potential), and Blake Wesley (a competitive scorer who has improved defensively). 

X-Factor:  After signing Chris Paul and drafting Stephon Castle with the plan being to play both at the point at different points, Tre Jones has to be wondering what his role on the team is.  He has already proven to be a good finisher, great playmaker, and solid defender.  I think he projects to be a good backup point guard on a winning team, but there is one major weakness in his game:  he is not a good shooter.  On top of that, he isn’t the best off-ball player since he hasn’t done that a lot in his career.  In order for him to be successful, he needs to improve his off-ball game to play alongside another guard.  He is a good enough player to warrant minutes, so he needs to show that the fit can work.

Best Case Scenario:  Wembenyama thrives, multiple young players make a jump, and they make the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario:  They finish near the bottom of the West and none of the young players make a jump, leaving questions regarding who they can build around Wembenyama.

 

14:  Utah Jazz

I believe that Utah is finally going to be near the bottom of the conference since I just don’t think the team is going to be as good as any other team in the conference.  Lauri Markkanen is an impressive offensive player who has emerged as a star since going to Utah, as his scoring and rebounding has been amazing.  While there isn’t an obvious second-best player on the team, Collin Sexton is an aggressive scorer and shooter who has played so well in Utah and has improved as a playmaker.  The team also has Keyonte George (an aggressive scorer who demonstrated potential as a shooter and playmaker), Walker Kessler (a young big who is a good defender, though Utah has been disappointed with his offensive development), John Collins (an aggressive scoring bigger forward who is a great finisher and shooter), Jordan Clarkson (an aggressive scoring guard who has thrived off the bench in Utah), Taylor Hendricks (a young forward with 3-and-D upside), Drew Eubanks (a strong backup big who is a solid defender), Cody Williams (a young, raw forward who has upside, though he will take a lot of development), Isaiah Collier (a strong, aggressive rookie guard who has some playmaking upside to pair with his scoring mindset), Brice Sensabaugh (a young, aggressive scoring forward), and Kyle Filipowski (a rookie big who fell to the second round despite offensive upside).  I would expect several of these players to be moved as the season goes on and many young players to get a lot of minutes; brace yourselves.

X-Factor:  Two seasons ago, Walker Kessler had an amazing rookie year and finished 3^rd in the Rookie of the Year voting.  Last season, he had a great defensive year, but did not improve at all on offense.  Since then, Utah has made it very transparent that they are not pleased with his development and don’t believe he is a part of their future.  I think it’s insane that Utah has already given up on him since he is such an amazing defender that he will provide value.  Even if his offensive game is limited beside finishing at the rim, he still provides a ton of value.  I have to ask honestly though:  during the draft process prior to drafting him, what did they expect him to do offensively?  I don’t recall trusting his offensive upside besides finishing at the rim.

Best Case Scenario:  They’re going to stink, but they have a path going forward with a few young guys going forward.

Worst Case Scenario:  They stink and there is no young players who make a clear name for themselves in Utah’s future.

 

15:  Portland Trail Blazers

Let’s not beat around the bush:  Portland is going to be bad.  At this point, I’m not even sure who is going to get playing time out of all the players on this team, so now I’m stuck mentioning most of their team since it feels like it’s fair game.  Despite a rough rookie season, Scoot Henderson showed glimpses as to why he was the third pick in the draft, as he was a good playmaker, was an aggressive scorer, and has shooting upside.  Shaedon Sharpe still has a lot of upside as a shooter and scorer while showing glimpses of defending.  They also have Anfernee Simons (a skilled shooter and scorer with some playmaking upside), Deni Avdija (a skilled scorer, defender, and playmaker as a big forward who projects to be a good role player who can be built around), Jerami Grant (a good shooter and scorer who is a good defender when he is focused on it), Deandre Ayton (a big who is a good finisher and rebounder who is looking to rebuild his value), Robert Williams (an amazing defender and finisher with playmaking ability, though he is unfortunately often injured), Donovan Clingan (a traditional big with upside on both ends in the paint), Matisse Thybulle (a great defensive wing who has improved as a shooter), Toumani Camara (a good shooter and solid finisher who has defensive upside), Jabari Walker (a good finishing big who is improving as defender), Kris Murray (a good finisher with defensive upside), Duop Reath (a big who is a good finisher and solid shooter), Dalano Banton (a big guard and forward who is an aggressive scorer), and Rayan Rupert (a wing with defensive upside who shot well as a rookie).  Give them a few years and there is potential for them to be better, but it’ll take a while.

X-Factor:  Portland is at the start of a rebuild, and they have a ton of bigs and forwards, which gives some Deni Avdija opportunities to be more of a playmaker.  In Washington, he demonstrated that he is a good finisher and defender who has improved his jumper.  He has shown upside as a playmaker and passer, but didn’t get a ton of opportunities in Washington.  If he develops as a skilled playmaker and is ready to be a playmaker, not only will he be a good fit, but he could be a massive fit for the future.

Best Case Scenario:  They stink and several young players play well while showing upside.

Worst Case Scenario:  They stink and none of their young players have potential.