2024 WNBA Finals Game 2 Observations
Game 2 of the WNBA Finals is in the books, and New York won 80-66. While Minnesota again wiped a big lead and made it a 2-point game in the 4th quarter, New York went on a run late and played great defense down the stretch, resulting in a sizeable win.
Three-point shooting changed the game
Simply put, New York shot 11-24 (45.8%) from 3 while
Minnesota shot 6-20 (30%) from 3. If
they had shot close to their season averages (using these in lieu of playoff numbers
for a larger sample size) on those attempts, we would expect New York to make 8
or 9 and Minnesota to make 7 or 8; if we assume 9 and 8 respectively, that
suddenly results in a 12-point swing in a 14-point game. In general, shooting numbers can be volatile
by game, especially late in a season as legs get more tired, Minnesota’s most
reliable 3-point shooters this season of Kayla McBride, Alanna Smith, and
Bridget Carleton went a combined 4-14 (28.6%) from deep. If they had shot better, it’s also possible
that Smith would have taken more 3’s (she went 0-2). However, it is also worth noting that New
York’s Leonie Fiebich only went 1-3, so a couple more good attempts from her
would make this game a little more lopsided.
Breanna Stewart’s defense was the most important part of
the game for New York
While people could look at Stewart’s offensive stats and see
the 21 points, 5 assists, and 8 rebounds and consider this a good game, it’s
worth noting that this wasn’t that strong of an offense for Stewart. She went 7-18 (38.9%) from the field while
missing several good looks by her standard, which admittedly is very high. That said, her defense was other
worldly. Yes, she did have a Finals
record 7 steals, including some clutch ones in the 4th quarter, but
she also did a phenomenal job on Napheesa Collier, who only took 12 shots, many
of them being very difficult looks. Her
ability to limit Collier was game changing, as was her clutch steals later in
the game, all of which seemed like good moves as well.
New York played really good defense against Courtney
Williams
In Game 1, Williams was able to get to her spots easily off
screens and in transition. After she
started shooting well, New York started double teaming her on several
screens. When this happened, New York,
who is incredibly long, effectively threw limbs at Williams, Minnesota’s
smallest player in the starting lineup, and she couldn’t find any passing
lanes. What needs to happen is either
the open player or the closest player needs to come around the opening to
provide an open passing lane, though it’s easier said than done to make that
quick read.
Alanna Smith was Minnesota’s best player this game
Smith was Minnesota’s most efficient scorer, as she had 14
points on 6-9 shooting (almost all of which were closer to the rim), and on
several occasions made amazing reads.
She also played impressive defense on Jonquel Jones, who went 6-13 and
was limited inside the paint, while often having to stand outside the paint
since there was nothing she could do. Smith
had an excellent game without shooting well from 3 (0-2), which is something
that I think is replicable, especially if she can make a couple 3’s.
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton’s jumper appeared to be helped by
more minutes
Laney-Hamilton’s shot has not been dropping ever since she
returned from her injury, though I had always wondered how much the 5-minute
increments prevented her from getting into a groove. I had my answer in Game 2, who shot 4-6 from
3 and 8-14 overall when this restriction was lifted, as she appeared to be more
comfortable as the game went on and as she played more minutes in stints. The downside will be how tired and healthy
she looks.
Minnesota still has an offensive rebounding problem
It might have only been a 10-5 deficit in offensive
rebounding, but that also was with Jones only picking up 3. I would naturally expect New York to get more
offensive rebounds due to their size advantage (while they don’t have a
traditional big, they have more length), there were multiple offensive rebounds
that resulted in a putback because they had poor position. Minnesota needs to limit these as much as
possible; while they did better in Game 2 than Game 1, it is still something to
work on.
Bridget Carleton needs to get going in Game 3
Carleton has been a non-factor on offense. She went a combined 5-13 (38.5%) from the
field after shooting just 3-9 from the field and 2-6 from 3 in Game 2. While she was more aggressive in Game 2 and
made some smart reads, she hasn’t done a ton on offense and hasn’t been notably
excellent on defense. It’s going to be
incredibly difficult to win with her shooting that poorly.
Minnesota has to be scared about the Sabrina Ionescu game
After Ionescu only went 8-26 in Game 1, she shot 55.6% from
the field…but only took 9 shots and scored 1 point in the second half. New York has been the better team throughout
the entire series even with Ionescu shooting horribly in Game 1 and being a
non-factor in the second half of Game 2.
Ionescu is such an excellent scorer and shooter that Minnesota has to be
prepared for her to torch them, especially considering the fact that her shot
selection has played a role in their struggles.
New York still needs to be concerned about the comebacks
Minnesota is making
New York won by 14, but Minnesota got the game down to a 2-point
game in the 4th before New York pulled away with it. I expect a lot will talk about the willpower
or determination that New York had to not allow a comeback, but to me it’s a
load of crap since New York allowed this to occur by not having willpower during
the whole game. You can’t play with your
food when facing Minnesota; New York should have learned that in Game 1.
The refs were not good in this game
I don’t want to blame the refs in this game, but they
changed what they were calling. While
they didn’t call much of anything (or focused on cardio, as Curt Miller
humorously claimed), they started calling a lot more in the second half. Even if referees are calling something that
most wouldn’t call, there is a certain level of subjectivity in how each ref
calls a game; the issue is when they change their style, which is a big no-no
in refereeing and is not something that should happen in any professional game.
What did you think of this game? Let me know in the comments!
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