2025 Women's March Madness

Now that the men's tournament for March Madness has begun, the women's tournament is about to start!  Like the men's tournament, even though nobody really knows what's going to happen, let's pretend we have a clue!

There are 4 metrics I use for the men's tournament: record against top-25 teams (one that has been really good in the early rounds), three-point percentage (surprisingly more valuable than other offensive metrics, even more than attempts), free throw percentage (teams that struggle at the line typically are eliminated early), and defensive rating (unlike on the men's side, this usually is beneficial, especially in the early rounds). There are usually several teams that fair well overall or are poor at several, so few teams are perfect fits.  There are many teams that have a shot of winning it all, making it a little difficult to predict the winner.  I currently have UConn beating South Carolina, but I don't feel good about this result.

Something to note about the women's tournament is that I typically don't predict as many upsets in the early rounds as I do on the men's side.  The reason for this is because the top-4 seeded teams of each region host the first two rounds, making upsets a little less likely.

The format of this post will be different than usual. Normally, I discuss several teams at depth and include upsets and potential upsets, but I am only going to discuss individual teams that are interesting briefly based on their metrics more than anything. There are two reasons for this: I am writing this on a phone due to my computer being repaired, and I am currently out of the country on vacation.

Interesting Teams

These teams are either competitive or have some interesting variance.

UConn

While there is a lot of randomness in the men's tournament, it is common for a 1-seed to win the tournament (in many situations, the overall number 1 is the winner).  Why am I so bullish on 2-seed UConn?  They are great at each metric being considered.  They were 6-3 against top-25 teams, 6th in 3-point percentage, 16th in free throw percentage, and 1st in defensive rating.  It's worth noting that the Big East wasn't as competitive as the SEC or Big Ten this year, but UConn were still so much better than many of these other teams.  On top of that, several of their players are going to be leaving after this year, so they likely want to win it all.

South Carolina

After winning the last two championships, it should not be surprising that they should go far.  While they were only 48th in 3-point percentage, they were 15th in free throw percentage, 12th in defensive rating, and 12-3 against top-25 teams.  Even though the metrics aren't as amazing as they often are, there are two things that I think are worth noting with them: their schedule was insane, and their shooting is better than it was last year, when they won the championship.  Additionally, for a little blasphemous opinion for a Connecticut resident, I think that there's a serious case to be made that Dawn Staley is the best coach in college basketball right now.

Notre Dame

I originally had Notre Dame beating South Carolina because of their metrics, but I got really scared of South Carolina since they're so good against great teams.  Notre Dame was 8-4 against top-25 teams, 1st in 3-point percentage, 12th in free throw percentage, and 13th in defensive rating.  The biggest reason I have them going far is because stylistically, that is the type of team that plays well against teams like South Carolina and Texas, teams that are great defensively but cannot hit shots from deep (especially Texas).  Still, if their shot isn't falling, they could wind up losing very early.

UCLA

UCLA being selected as the overall 1-seed generated controversy due in part to their easier non-conference schedule, but they have been good against great teams, even if their metrics that I listed are underwhelming.  They were 10-2 against top-25 teams, 49th in 3-point percentage, 38th in free throw percentage, and 14th in defensive rating.  The biggest thing to note is that they are amazing at the rim in particular, so their offensive is better than their metrics I used indicate.  The issue I think they'll face against UConn is the free throw battle, especially if UConn is killing it from deep.

USC

USC has a legitimate shot to make the Final Four, but it largely hinges on their offense, especially against UConn.  They were 9-2 against top-25 teams, 52nd in 3-point percentage, 13th in free throw percentage, 11th in defensive rating.  I think a big thing to keep in mind is the difference in how analytics translate between men's and women's basketball, especially shooting efficiency, is a big part of why USC is so praised, as star JuJu Watkins isn't an efficient scorer (though a big part of that is shot selection), which plays a big role in their 3-point percentage, considering how many shots she takes.  If she is on a heater though, they should be treated as legitimate contenders (and possibly favorites to win it all).

Texas

Texas is a team that I am nervous about due to their offense, despite them having an amazing year.  They were 10-3 against top-25 teams, 64th in 3-point percentage, 20th in free throw percentage, and 5th in defensive rating.  While they don't shoot a lot of 3's and operate their offense mostly on 2's, they're also inefficient from that range, as they shot less than 50% from 2.  On offense, their saving grace is that they get a lot of offensive rebounds and shoot well from the line, but you really can't rely on that in the tournament.  I think they'll get smoked by Notre Dame if they even make it that far (I think they'll make the Elite Eight due to their defense).

Duke

I find Duke to be kind of confusing, especially their offense.  They were 8-5 against top-25 teams, 32nd in 3-point percentage, 59th in free throw percentage, and 16th in defensive rating.  On top of the unspectacular shooting numbers, they also shot less than 50% from 2 (though I think that number would have been higher if they focused their shots at the rim, but I digress) and they don't have anyone who's an amazing playmaker.  Like Texas, they are a good offensive rebounding team, but I don't think they'll go further than the Elite Eight; in fact, the only reason I have them that far is due to their schedule.

LSU

This is my annual reminder that I am scared of Kim Mulkey, meaning the glare I feel when I get to LSU means I put them further than I want (I changed my bracket to have them advance further prior to writing this).  They're really not great in any of the metrics; they're 5-4 against top-25 team, 42nd in 3-point percentage, 34th in free throw percentage, and 33rd in defensive rating.  They lucked out a bit with drawing NC State as a potential 2-3 matchup (more on them in a second), but it all comes down to how they fair against Florida State.

Florida State

Speaking of Florida State, I originally had them in the Elite Eight before I got scared of LSU and Mulkey.  The metrics are a mixed bag (3-4 vs. top-25 teams, 26th in 3-point percentage, 5th in free throw percentage, and 59th in defensive rating), so it's tough to say.  If this were the men's tournament, I would be more inclined to have them go further with their offensive metrics, but the defense matters so much more for the women's tournament, especially since you can get away without an efficient offense.  That said, if they beat LSU, I think they'll beat NC State and end up in the Elite Eight.

NC State

I wish I could honestly say that this transition was intended, but I just added teams as I thought of them.  I am very low on NC State and am surprised that they were good enough to be a 2-seed just by the metrics alone; obviously the wins are more important to the committee, but their metrics makes them feel like at best a 5-seed.  They were 6-5 against top-25 teams, 46th in 3-point percentage, 63rd in free throw percentage, and 54th in defensive rating.  I have them in the Sweet 16 due to matchups, but I'll be stunned if they go past that.

Kansas State/Alabama

I don't think Kansas State or Alabama will go far in the tournament, but their 3-point percentages are very high (they are second and third respectively).  Neither have a great free throw percentage (45th and 61st, respectively) or defensive rating (21st and 38th, respectively).  If they're hot from deep, they can shock people.

Lehigh...wait, 15-seed Lehigh?

I understand that this is so strange, but something to note is that Lehigh is first in free throw percentage.  I don't think they'll win, but if they have a slight lead late, you can't count on them to miss free throws.

My Bracket

Due to getting a screenshot on my phone, it isn't as good of a picture as usual; my apologies about this.

Who do you have winning the tournament? Are there any matchups you are interested in? Let me know in the comments!