2025 NBA Playoffs Prediction

We have reached the end of the NBA regular season, meaning that the playoffs are finally here!  Now that we know the 7 and 8 seeds in each conference (for some reason, I waited until after the Memphis-Dallas game before I wrote that first round analysis; I quickly realized how stupid of a decision that was, since I don’t have much going into that series), we can finally make predictions!  I think there will be several series that are going to be competitive at the minimum and exciting at the maximum.  For each round, I gave some analysis (or in the case of OKC-Memphis, some suggestions for days when Memphis can look into booking their ticket to Cancun), an X-Factor for each series who is not a star (there is one team where I ran out of players who I think will provide big minutes, so I included a potential Defensive Player of the Year candidate who isn’t viewed as a star outside of their market), and my prediction.

 

First Round

East

1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 8 Miami Heat

I know that there will be many Miami fans that will cite so-called “Heat Culture”, but I don’t see how Cleveland loses this series, as they are so much better.  I’m stunned that Miami made it out of the Play-In, but congratulations to them.  I’d give ways that Miami could beat Cleveland, but I don’t think they’ll have any success on either end of the court.  This might change if at least 3 of Cleveland’s stars are injured and out for the series, but I’m lower on how several of Miami’s players have been this year.

X-Factor:  While there isn’t going to be one player who makes or breaks the series for Cleveland, I always question who will play most of the wing minutes; usually, I would predict that Max Strus would start games, De’Andre Hunter would finish games, and some combination of Isaac Okoro, Dean Wade, Sam Merrill, and Ty Jerome would make up most of the remaining minutes.  I think the big question out of these players is what Okoro will be able to do offensively.  He is an amazing wing defender who is very versatile, but he seems scared to shoot.  He often won’t shoot 3’s unless wide open, so the defense can gladly leave him open while he is hesitant to shoo; if he hits the open looks, that will really change the spacing and offense.

Prediction:  Cleveland, 4-0

 

2 Boston Celtics vs. 7 Orlando Magic

In theory, this should be a very tough series for Orlando.  They have been a great defensive team and have been great at reducing three pointers, but Boston is a different breed.  When they’re clicking, they are great at creating open looks due to their playmaking, and they have been clicking incredibly well in the last couple months.  They also were a great defensive team, which will make it more difficult for Orlando, especially who is one of the worst offensive teams in the league.  Orlando could win one game because sometimes a young team with energy can stumble into a win, but Boston is much better.  Maybe it would be a different series if Jalen Suggs were healthy, but I don’t see how Orlando can win this; I think it’s a push to have them winning more than one game.

X-Factor:  Orlando is big and physical, which could cause some matchup difficulties for Payton Pritchard at times.  While he is a skilled all-around player, he is only 6’1.  There are a few reasons I think he still will find success.  First, he is an amazing shooter who can shoot from deep, which will stretch the team out even when the starters are off the court.  He is also a competitive player on both ends, which will help any time Orlando is dealing with a down stretch or are feeling deflated.  Lastly, he is a shockingly good rebounder for his size, which means they have to keep an eye out for him, which adds an interesting additional element to a team with several big wings and guards.

Prediction:  Boston, 4-1

 

3 New York Knicks vs. 6 Detroit Pistons

If you were to tell me that New York was the average defensive team without a great rim protector and strong offense was the Tom Thibodeau-coached Knicks, I’d think someone was off their rocker (and I have never felt so old by saying that).  The young Pistons are the better defensive squad out of the two, but their half-court offense is very inconsistent.  While Cade Cunningham has been amazing, New York has two reliable guys on offense in Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson.  While Towns gets a lot of criticism, he is an amazing offensive talent who can score at any point in the shot clock, which is such a valuable thing to have in the playoffs.  I also do want to emphasize that New York has some reliable defenders; in fact, I can’t wait to see a series with OG Anunoby guarding Cunningham.  Detroit is a young athletic team, which means that they will likely win a couple games, especially against a team that doesn’t have the best rim protection.  Detroit is a good team, but they’ll likely not win this series since a bunch of their young players are raw and haven’t reached their potential yet; I could see them looking more promising in a couple years, but New York is probably more prepared for this season.

X-Factor:  When facing a team that is as competitive as Detroit and truly is reminiscent of the Bad Boys Pistons of the past, you really need a player who can match the nastiness of someone like Isaiah Stewart or Ron Holland (not saying that they’re dirty players, just that they have a nasty edge).  While I’d like it to not be New York’s six-man, Miles McBride is the natural guy who can give you reliable minutes and is super competitive.  He is a good shooter, an aggressive scorer, and has a level of nastiness that New York might need for a long series.

Prediction:  New York, 4-2

 

4 Indiana Pacers vs. 5 Milwaukee Bucks

This probably would have been a much more exciting series if we knew the health status of Damian Lillard; he is out for Game 1 at the minimum with a blood clot.  I know that they’re listing him as day to day, but how quickly can someone actually come back to an NBA game after a blood clot?  Both teams have been good in the second half of the season, which could make this a very exciting series.  Overall, both are solid offensively and defensively.  I think there are two main things to watch from their stars that could shift the series:  how aggressive Tyrese Haliburton is at looking for his shot and how Giannis Antetokounmpo succeeds at free throw shooting.  Without Lillard, it feels like the Bucks could use one player:  ironically, it’s Khris Middleton (especially with Kyle Kuzma not being the perfect fit they seemed to envision).  I’m hoping that it is the high-paced athletic series that this series has the potential to be; this could be a blast!

X-Factor:  In the second half of the season, Milwaukee has played a very big lineup, which could give Indiana some difficulties at times.  Despite being at a potential size disadvantage, I’m curious to see how Aaron Nesmith fairs in this series.  He is very athletic (when he was in Boston, Brad Stevens had him double team players regularly on the ball and then have him run back to his man, which was something he did a very good job with), which I like in transition on both ends.  He’s also an amazing shooter, which makes him a great matchup against Milwaukee, especially if it turns into a shootout.

Prediction:  Indiana, 4-2

 

West

1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 8 Memphis Grizzlies

I don’t know why I’m even forcing myself to write this for this series.  OKC thrived throughout the season despite injuries to several players, and Memphis limped their way to the end of the season so badly that their then coach, Taylor Jenkins, was fired with 9 games left in the season (until Denver decided it was a competition, that was pretty much unheard of for a playoff team).  Congratulations on getting out of the Play-In despite so many things going wrong, Memphis.  That said, you might want to book your flights to Cancun; the evening of April 26^th (Game 4) sounds like a good time to reserve; if you need some more time in the ice bath, April 27^th is a good option as well.

X-Factor:  I think it might be beneficial to use a deeper rotation in this round, especially since they are almost certainly going to win.  Kenrich Williams could provide some valuable minutes during this series.  He’s not a star, but he’s 6’7, has a beautiful jumper, and is a good enough defender to earn minutes throughout the playoffs.  Why do I think Williams in particular should get a lot of minutes in the first round?  There could be a game later down the road where you need a 3, and Williams is someone that would be a great option to shoot it; you want to keep that shot warm and not let him get too rusty by not playing.

Prediction:  Oklahoma City, 4-0

 

2 Houston Rockets vs. 7 Golden State Warriors

This could be the most competitive series in the first round; on top of that, if you like defense, this should be the series for you.  A lot of people are predicting Golden State will win easily, but I think this is one of the worst matchups they could have drawn in the first round.  Houston is incredibly physical and has the versatility and athleticism that will be needed to wear a Golden State team with older stars down.  What makes it worse for Golden State is that Houston can make adjustments by literally throwing other players on a guy who is cooking if one guy isn’t working (for example, if Jimmy Butler is cooking one player, Houston can literally rotate between Dillon Brooks, Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, Jabari Smith Jr., and even Jeff Green or Jae’Sean Tate, if he’s healthy).  I think the thing that people are underrating is that Ime Udoka isn’t going to be afraid to bench a player if he is struggling, especially defensively.  The other thing that a lot of people have cited is experience; while Stphen Curry, Butler, and Draymond Green all have a lot of playoff experience, the only rotation player with significant playoff minutes is Kevon Looney; while Moses Moody, Gary Payton II, and Jonathan Kuminga have all played in multiple playoff series across multiple seasons, they didn’t play 20 MPG in any run.  I don’t think the experience will be as much of a factor for the role players as people expect.  For Houston, I think it will be interesting to see how Thompson and Alperen Sengun play; while neither are good shooters and both play better on the ball, there is a lot of off-ball potential for each by either having Thompson cut a lot off the ball when a defender is sagging off him, or having Sengun set a screen and then position himself in the post to get the ball and make a pass from a motion.  I think the series will go to 7 games, but eventually the older Warriors stars will be too beaten down to score on Thompson and Brooks.

X-Factor:  While I expect a lot of analysts would suggest Houston should play big, I think it would be interesting to see them play small.  In particular, I would love to see Tari Eason play a type of floating 5 for them.  While they do have to be careful of the Warrior’s IQ, I think that he has the athleticism and length to make it difficult when the Warriors go small, especially if Draymond Green is at the 5.  The thing to watch out for if they have him roam is that they have to be ready for a Draymond-Steph Curry pick-and-roll to come out; if that happens, he will need to react quickly if he sees a screen happen.  I don’t think Houston would ever do that in this series (if anything, I could see them using multiple bigs), but I would love them to try a “small” ball lineup with a ton of length and athleticism.

Prediction:  Houston, 4-3

 

3 Los Angeles Lakers vs. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves

This could be one of the wackiest series, as you have a lineup that has to play small (L.A.) facing a lineup that has to play big (Minnesota).  For some, it might seem obvious that L.A. has an advantage with LeBron James and Luka Doncic, even if the roster is flawed around them (they at least made the offense work); for others, it might seem obvious that a paint presence by Minnesota is the easiest route to go, especially if L.A.’s 3’s are not falling.  While L.A. is setting themselves up for some defensive struggles whenever Doncic and Austin Reaves are on the floor, they will have ways that they can hide each; on top of that, Reaves is a good athlete and Doncic is strong, so they’re not necessarily total zeros defensively.  I think the biggest issue for Minnesota is how clunky the fit of Julius Randle will be in this series; he really hasn’t tried to succeed without the ball in his hands ever since becoming an All-Star with the Knicks, but the issue is that Minnesota needs someone to operate off the ball (for all the criticism he gets, Minnesota really misses Karl-Anthony Towns on offense).  The easiest path for Minnesota to win is by attacking the paint, which you would hope means that Anthony Edwards needs to be aggressive in the paint, Rudy Gobert needs to exploit mismatches, Mike Conley needs to play better and attack the paint, and their guards off the bench need to recognize mismatches and openings.  The issue is that I don’t see Minnesota playing that way; now that Edwards has largely abandoned attacking the rim like he used to in favor of 3’s, Conley has struggled mightily this year, the guards might be a bit lost in headlights at times, and Gobert is not consistently reliable finishing, especially against mismatches.  I think both teams will win at least two games, but I think L.A. is better suited for this matchup.

X-Factor:  I think it will be interesting to see how L.A.’s smaller lineup will fare against Minnesota’s big lineups.  Rui Hachimura is an essential part of this lineup, as his shooting and willingness to play off-ball while making quick decisions have been essential for the team.  On offense, he barely has any unassisted baskets, and he has thrived alongside playmakers like Luka Doncic and LeBron James, who have helped him get easier looks than he did in Washington, allowing Hachimura to score so efficiently from both 2 and 3.  The big question is how he will do defensively; while he has been better defensively for them, he will have to defend some bigger guys, as I wouldn’t be shocked if there are games where the smallest guy that he has to cover is Julius Randle.  How will he fare against this size, especially in the paint?  Realistically, he only needs to be average, especially if he is guarding Rudy Gobert, who isn’t the most aggressive scorer offensively.

Prediction:  Los Angeles, 4-2

 

4 Denver Nuggets vs. 5 Los Angeles Clippers

This is another series that could be a lot of fun, as both are good teams.  I love what L.A. has done this year, especially with their strategy while Kawhi Leonard was injured.  While it is tough to survive without your star player, they did well, as James Harden running the show has worked shocking well at the age of 35 despite a loss in athleticism and ability to get to the rim (in an interview Ivica Zubac gave to Brian Windhorst, he discussed how much Harden trusts and empowers his teammates, which is something that most people don’t give Harden enough credit for).  Zubac and Norm Powell have both had career years, especially with Zubac fitting with Harden as a pick-and-roll threat and also playing the best defense of his career.  Once Leonard game back, he fit so well with the team and played at a very high level; in particular, they finished on a 15-2 run.  I get that Nikola Jokic is having another comically incredible season, but I question how healthy Jamal Murray is, how many 3’s Aaron Gordon will make, and who can defend L.A.’s wings.  While their ceiling is high, the combination of these elements and the bench not being great is not a good sign for Denver.  The biggest reason I cannot select Denver in this series:  are we sure that there isn’t something wrong in Denver?  I’m convinced that we’ll see reports of dysfunction as soon as Denver loses, which I think will be the first round.

X-Factor:  It might sound insane to say that Kris Dunn should be the fifth starter (behind Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, Ivica Zubac, and Norm Powell), but his defense gives L.A. so many options.  I Think there is a case to be made that Dunn is was of the best guard defenders in the league.  After a few years of struggling offensively, preventing him from remaining on the court, he improved his off-ball ability, as he is a good mover and finisher, while being a solid shooter.  In this series, he is the perfect guard to throw on Murray due to his size, athleticism, and IQ.

Prediction:  Los Angeles, 4-2

 

 

Second Round

East

1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 4 Indiana Pacers

As good as Indiana has been during the season, especially as the season got going, I think Cleveland will be a difficult matchup for them.  I think Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen can be good defensively against either Myles Turner or Pascal Siakam, and I would consider throwing a wing on Tyrese Haliburton to make it even more difficult to defend (if Isaac Okoro is on the court, I would consider doing that since he is versatile on switches and has nice size).  On top of that, I don’t believe that Indiana has the defense to defend both Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland.  I also think Cleveland has enough athleticism to slow down Indiana, which will make it even more difficult for them to score.  Indiana really needs Haliburton to be aggressive with his shot, but he has moments where he is very passive.  I think this will be a tough series for Inidana.

X-Factor:  Indiana’s star player, Tyrese Haliburton, is obviously not the easiest guy to defend; he is an elite playmaker, great shooter, and an underrated finisher.  What I wonder is if Ty Jerome would ever be defending him, and how that would go.  Jerome had a breakout year as a shooter and finisher, especially on difficult floaters.  I was very low on him in the 2019 Draft since I didn’t think that he was athletic enough to make the league, but he has proven that he can make it in the league this season.  That said, can he keep up with Haliburton if he is switched onto him?  If I were Cleveland, I would try to switch another wing onto him if available.

Prediction:  Cleveland, 4-1

 

2 Boston Celtics vs. 3 New York Knicks

I know most people would say that Boston will beat New York easily since they swept the season series and New York didn’t appear to have answers, but there are still a few questions.  The biggest question is how healthy Jaylen Brown is, as this could be a series changer given his versatility and scoring ability, even if his efficiency was down this year.  I think the biggest thing is the health of Kristaps Porzingis; he can change Boston’s spacing by both shooting 3’s and finishing in the post, making that difficult to defend.  While Boston takes a ton of 3’s, I think their stars must realize they need to target the rim, especially since Karl Anthony-Towns isn’t the best rim protector.  New York’s defense has not been great this year, despite some talented individual defenders, which will be tough against Boston, who has one of the best offenses in the league.  Something interesting is that both teams operate at an incredibly slow pace; I imagine Boston would be more likely to lose against a team that operates at a faster pace.  While New York is a good team, I don’t think they’re a good matchup against Boston.  Even if OG Anunoby does a great job against Jayson Tatum, Boston just has so much to throw at New York.

X-Factor:  Sam Hauser has been dealing with a lingering back issue for most of the season; while he played 71 games, you do hope that he’s healthy.  Even while sore, he still shot very well; despite shooting at the worst clip of his career, he still topped 41% from deep and has the fifth highest active career 3-point percentage.  While he isn’t the best defender, he has nice size, which makes him at least an average defender.  If he is dealing with an injury, it might be a bit tough for him to play against New York’s wings.

Prediction:  Boston, 4-1

 

West

1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 5 Los Angeles Clippers

I know there are a lot of people that aren’t ready to crown Oklahoma City as anything but a fun first round team because they cite things like experience, but there is precedent for the majority of players on a team that had even less playoff experience than OKC does:  the 2021 Phoenix Suns.  While they had Chris Paul, Devin Booker was their best player and, like many on the team, had never played in a playoff game before that season.  OKC seems to be different than them since they are so poised and mature for their age (I know some people will point to the press conferences, style, or ads, but I mean their demeanor and on-court play is really mature).  I think the additions of Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein gives them even more experience, but it will come down to their stars.  L.A. has several great defenders that they could throw at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren, but Shai is amazing, Holmgren appears comfortable being a secondary option if needed, and OKC has defenders they can throw right back at them.  I could see James Harden having a little more difficulty getting to the rim and finishing against this team, which could totally change the offensive dynamic for L.A.  OKC was the best defensive team in the NBA, and I think this will translate to this series.  It’s also worth noting that Kawhi Leonard hasn’t been on the court for an entire playoff run since the Bubble in 2020.  I think OKC is a much better team this year and will have more reliable health.

X-Factor:  While part of this is due to due to injuries, Cason Wallace started the fifth most games for the Thunder.  Even if they have a 2-big starting lineup or use Alex Caruso (who came off the bench for most of the season) in the starting lineup, Wallace is one of OKC’s better role players (especially defensively), and has earned big minutes.  He is an amazing defender, but is also a good shooter and finisher while also making smart moves on both ends of the court.  His listed height is only 6’4 (he was listed at 6’2.5 at the 2023 Draft Combine), though his wingspan was measured at 6’8.5.  I expect that will be big enough to still compete in this series, but it’s something to watch, especially since L.A. has several long wings and forwards.

Prediction:  Oklahoma City, 4-2

 

2 Houston Rockets vs. 3 Los Angeles Lakers

In my opinion, this could be a competitive but strange series.  While both teams are good, I don’t feel like either are what I think of for a Conference Finals team.  The Lakers have two superstars in Luka Doncic and LeBron James, as well as a high-level offensive option in Austin Reaves and multiple players who fit alongside them; the issues are that they don’t have the size to make sense against Houston, they don’t have a perfect lineup, they have a rookie coach, and their defense isn’t great.  On the other hand, Houston has insane depth, plenty of guys who are competitive, a great defense, and a veteran coach who is brilliant, but they don’t have a traditional offensive option, a great half-court offense, or much experience.  The top-2 players are both with the Lakers, but depending on how you view Reaves, the next several best players in the series could be from Houston.  This will be a huge defensive series for Houston’s young guys; I think Amen Thompson will be ready for the moment, but I have no idea about anyone else.  I worry that Alperen Sengun might get played off the court on the defensive end, but I don’t think that is a catastrophe in the same way it would be for most All-Stars due to their depth.  The rebounding will be interesting to watch, as Houston is much better than L.A. at that end, especially on the offensive glass.  Ultimately, I have no idea who will win this one, as I think any result is possible.  I went with L.A. in 7 just because I didn’t feel good betting against Luka or LeBron, but I could see either team winning this series.

X-Factor:  When the Lakers go small, there have been many occasions where Dorian Finney-Smith plays the 5.  It will be interesting to see how he plays on each end of the court.  On defense, it will be curious to see how he plays against their bigs, especially Alperen Sengun.  Offense will be even more interesting; Sengun is not a good defender and I expect he will be on Finney-Smith.  Finney-Smith will need to be more aggressive than he normally is from deep, especially anytime a big is on him, as this will space out the floor.  If he does this, this series could be over a lot quicker than I expect.

Prediction:  Los Angeles, 4-3

 

 

Conference Finals

East

1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 2 Boston Celtics

I think this series will be a very competitive series even though I think one team is certainly better than the other (this statement probably makes no sense, but I do know what I’m talking about).  I think the Celtics are better and are much better suited to succeed in the playoffs, but I have one major concern:  exhaustion.  Due in large part to the allotment of minutes that Boston coach Joe Mazzulla opted for, there were several instances where Boston’s stars looked gassed during the fourth quarter of games.  While many of these game on the second night of back-to-backs (something that will not occur during the playoffs), there were several instances where they had a day off in between after playing physical or athletic teams and they looked drained.  This might be irrelevant in the playoffs for a number of reasons, most notably rest schedule between games, but their prior matchups are against teams that have several physical or athletic players.  Ultimately, I think the biggest thing is that Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland will struggle defensively against Boston’s length.  I feel bad for Garland since he is such a good player, but this is probably the worst possible matchup in the entire NBA on both ends of the court.  I think it will be interesting to see if Boston goes with a double big lineup frequently or trusts Jayson Tatum on Evan Mobley (I personally think Tatum is up to the task, but giving him a breather from that matchup will have its benefits too).  None of this is to say that Cleveland can’t win by outplaying Boston, as Cleveland is an amazing team; I just think this isn’t the best playoff matchup for them, and it honestly might be the toughest playoff matchup.  Of course, if Jaylen Brown’s injury is still acting up, ignore most of what I said and give Cleveland an edge.

X-Factor:  With Cleveland starting two bigs, I could see Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford getting some minutes together, which would likely translate to Luke Kornet getting a few more minutes than I would expect in the playoffs.  While Boston has multiple backup bigs who could get minutes on competitive teams (including Neemias Queta and Xavier Tillman), Kornet has been a valuable backup big for them over the last couple years, especially when guys are injured or resting.  He has transformed his game from being a stretch big to being more of a traditional big who sets screens, dunks, and is a drop defender who is so consistent in the paint.  He has honestly thrived in this role and has been so consistent, making the Celtics spoiled that they have a third string big who most other teams would love to have as their backup.

Prediction:  Boston, 4-3

 

West

1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 3 Los Angeles Lakers

I’m sure a lot of people would predict the Lakers over the Thunder, but I don’t understand how they would do that.  First off, while some would argue that the best player in the series is either Luka Doncic or LeBron James, I would say it’s been Shai Gilgeous-Alexander pretty clearly.  He is an elite offensive player and, while he is certainly overhyped on defense, he is still a good defender.  Also, given the current rosters of each team, I think that Gilgeous-Alexander will be the toughest player in the series to slow down.  While the top few players on the Lakers are good, I think OKC is the much better team out of the two.  If both teams are going to attempt to play big, L.A. will be at a clear disadvantage since their best big man is Jaxson Hayes, who I can’t see getting more much more than 10 MPG in the playoffs.  If both teams attempt to go small, I also believe that OKC has an advantage there since I believe their shooting is more consistent.  While I don’t love betting against Luka and LeBron, I’m more scared to bet against Shai and OKC in the season that they are having.  L.A. will likely win a couple games in the series, but I think OKC is far superior.

X-Factor:  With L.A. being a smaller team who isn’t great at rebounding, there is one clear and obvious way for OKC to get an advantage:  have Isaiah Hartenstein go off.  The Lakers have been very bad at rebounding this year (something that will likely be tougher in the playoffs without a big that they trust with big minutes), and that is something Hartenstein is incredible at.  On top of that, if there is a game where their 3’s are not falling (it’s almost certainly bound to happen at some point during the playoffs; even the best shooters have an off-game), they’ll have to face Chet Holmgren and/or Hartenstein in the paint, which will give challenges to L.A.

Prediction:  Oklahoma City, 4-2

 

 

NBA Finals

2 Boston Celtics vs. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder

I truly believe that this would be a very fun series.  While I think it’s a tossup in general, cue what I wrote about Boston’s exhaustion in the previous round.  Jumpers often get inconsistent when exhausted due to the legs getting tired, which would totally torpedo Boston’s offensive game.  While I think they can adjust against Orlando and New York in particular if their shots aren’t falling, OKC will be very difficult to get past due to the versatility and athleticism.  Physicality will also play a role in how defenses are played, especially by OKC; OKC is often very physical, which allows them to get away with some fouls (realistically, the logic is that almost nobody wants the refs to call every foul, so they typically won’t) and also tire down their opponents even more.  One thing to note is that Boston is a little bigger than OKC, which will be a fun added element, especially if Boston utilizes this size in the paint.  I don’t understand why so many people are saying that OKC cannot win the championship solely because they are young (it’s not like their players haven’t had any playoff experience; even Shai was on the Chris Paul OKC team).  Eventually, you have to look at the metrics and figure that maybe one of the best regular season teams of all time who also are built in a way that works well in the playoffs will result in a Championship.  That said, both teams are amazing and could win.

X-Factor:  It almost feels blasphemous to consider Lu Dort in this category, but I need to emphasize just how important he is in this series.  While it seemed like he wanted to be viewed as a star earlier in his career (I don’t even blame him since he is a very good player), he appears to have totally bought into the role of 3-and-D superstar, as he is one of the team’s best defenders (if not the best).  In my opinion, the most important thing he provides in this series is not his IQ or athleticism per se, but his strength.  Boston has amazing size and athleticism at each position, so having Dort there to slow down anyone that is torching them is a valuable piece.  His versatility also allows him to guard almost anyone on the court for at least portions of the game (centers might be a bit tough, but he can pull it off for anyone else).  As an added development to his game over the last couple seasons, he went from being a player you could keep open from behind the arc to a 40% 3-point shooter, giving OKC yet another option to space the floor.

Prediction:  Oklahoma City, 4-3

 

 

Who do you think will win the Championship?  Any selections you disagree with me about?  Let me know in the comments!