2025 WNBA Season Preview
After another exciting offseason and draft process, the 2025 WNBA season is upon us! In this post, I included predictions for the standings, playoffs, and awards, while also including an analysis of each team. In the analysis, I also included an X-Factor who is a role player who could make a big impact for the team. As a note, I discussed players who might have been waived from teams since I wrote most of these predictions and analyses prior to the final wave of cuts that occurred; my apologies about any confusion upon reading these and not seeing any players in the roster.
Standings
1: Minnesota Lynx
2: New York Liberty
3: Las Vegas Aces
4: Indiana Fever
5: Atlanta Dream
6: Chicago Sky
7: Seattle Storm
8: Los Angeles Sparks
9: Phoenix Mercury
10: Dallas Wings
11: Golden State
Valkyries
12: Connecticut Sun
13: Washington
Mystics
Playoffs
1st Round
1 Minnesota Lynx beats 8 Los Angeles Sparks 2-0
2 New York Liberty beats 7 Seattle Storm 2-0
3 Las Vegas Aces beats 6 Chicago Sky 2-0
4 Indiana Fever beats 5 Atlanta Dream 2-1
Semifinals
1 Minnesota Lynx beats 4 Indiana Fever 3-1
2 New York Liberty beats 3 Las Vegas Aces 3-2
Finals
1 Minnesota Lynx beats 2 New York Liberty 3-2
Awards
I find it so silly to predict awards (or even discuss them
that much), but I still do it every year for these prediction posts for some
reason. Even though only MVP allows for more
than 1 name to be listed, I will list a top-3 for each.
MVP
1. Napheesa Collier, MIN
2. Caitlin Clark, IND
3. A’ja Wilson, LAV
Collier is the safest prediction since I believe Minnesota
will easily be the top team in the league while potentially having a record
setting season. I don’t think Clark will
have the second best season or even be the second most valuable player on the
court, but Indiana will likely have their best season since at least 2015,
which will make her a popular choice given her fame. I think the third spot will be either Wilson
or Breanna Stewart; I’m going with Wilson here since it feels like a safe
choice to predict that Wilson will have a comically amazing season. Other potential recipients include Stewart,
Jonquel Jones, Rhyne Howard, Nneka Ogwumike, Kayla McBride, Kelsey Plum,
Chelsea Gray, Alyssa Thomas, Sabrina Ionescu, Angel Reese, and Kelsey Mitchell.
Rookie of the Year
1. Paige Bueckers, DAL
2. Leila Lacan, CON
3. Sonia Citron, WAS
I think Bueckers will be the unanimous Rookie of the Year
since I think she is the best and will have the most opportunities. After that, I think it really comes down to
who will have the opportunities, and Lacan and Citron are the two most obvious
choices beyond that since I think they’ll be the most likely to put up bigger
numbers on bad teams. Other potential recipients
include Juste Jocyte, Dominique Malonga, Hailey Van Lith, and Monique Akoa-Makani.
Defensive Player of the Year
1. A’ja Wilson, LVA
2. Ezi Magbegor, SEA
3. Cameron Brink, LAS
In the last few seasons, the Defensive Player of the Year
award has often been the consolation prize for the first great defender to not
win the MVP. Even with that, Wilson is
an elite defender who likely will be the best defender. Over the last few seasons, Magbegor has gained
a reputation of being an elite defender, and the votes keep increasing; she
could end up beating Wilson. Even though
Brink will likely not be the third best defender, I think she’ll lead the
league in blocks, which will be enough to finish third. Other potential recipients include Napheesa
Collier, Alyssa Thomas, Breanna Stewart, Alanna Smith, Natasha Cloud, Angel
Reese, Gabby Williams, Nneka Ogwumike, Ariel Atkins, DiJonai Carrington,
Brittney Sykes, and DeWanna Bonner.
Sixth Woman of the Year
1. Leonie Fiebich, NYL
2. Azura Stevens, LAS
3. Sophie Cunningham, IND or Lexie Hull, IND
I’m not sure who will end up starting for each team, so this
always involves a bit of guessing. I
think Fiebich will largely come off the bench so Natahsa Cloud can start, and I
could see her being one of the leaders in three-point shooting. I think Stevens will have her best season
since she was in Chicago, which will make her a fair choice. I think an Indiana player will receive votes,
but I’m not sure who will start, especially whether they would start Cunningham
or Natasha Howard. Cunningham and Hull
will both be great and will probably each get a vote if eligible, but I’m not
sure if Cunningham will be. Other
potential recipients include Dorka Juhasz, Shatori Walker-Kimbrough, Dana
Evans, Marine Johannes, Katie Lou Samuelson, and Tyasha Harris.
Most Improved Player
1. Cecilia Zandalasini, GSV
2. Natasha Mack, PHO
3. NaLyssa Smith, DAL
There aren’t that many players who I think will show marked
improvement based on the roles that I think teams will allow for teams, but we’ll
se as the season goes on. I think
Zandalasini will be one of Golden State’s best players this season, so she’ll
probably win if that’s true. Phoenix is
so desperate after their big 3 that they’ll need someone to play a big role,
and I think Mack will be given the most opportunities. I don’t think Smith will improve the most,
but I think she’ll be a good fit in Dallas and will get votes as a result. Some other potential recipients include Temi
Fagbenle, Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Diamond Miller, Jade Melbourne, Leonie Fiebich,
and Emily Engstler.
Coach of the Year
1. Cheryl Reeve, MIN
2. Stephanie White, IND
3. Karl Smesko, ATL
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but I think
Minnesota could break the record for most wins in a season, so Reeve seems like
a clear choice for Coach of the Year. I
don’t think White will be the second best coach this year, but I think she’ll
get credit for Indiana’s inevitable improvement and get votes. I think several coaches are possible, but I
think Smesko will get credit for Atlanta finishing 5th in a year
where I think a lot of people have forgotten about them. Other potential recipients include Becky
Hammon, Sandy Brondello, and Tyler Marsh.
All-WNBA
1. Napheesa Collier, MIN
2. Caitlin Clark, IND
3. A’ja Wilson, LAV
4. Breanna Stewart, NYL
5. Rhyne Howard, ATL
6. Nneka Ogwumike, SEA
7. Jonquel Jones, NYL
8. Kelsey Plum, LAS
9. Kayla McBride, MIN
10. Chelsea Gray, LAV
All-Defense
1. A’ja Wilson, LAV
2. Ezi Magbegor, SEA
3. Cameron Brink, LAS
4. Napheesa Collier, MIN
5. Breanna Stewart, NYL
6. Alyssa Thomas, PHO
7. Alanna Smith, MIN
8. Natasha Cloud, NYL
9. Angel Reese, CHI
10. Gabby Williams, SEA
All-Rookie
1. Paige Bueckers, DAL
2. Leila Lacan, CON
3. Sonia Citron, WAS
4. Juste Jocyte, GSV
5. Dominique Malonga, SEA
All-Stars
East
1. Caitlin Clark, IND
2. Breanna Stewart, NYL
3. Brittney Griner, ATL
4. Angel Reese, CHI
5. Sabrina Ionescu, NYL
6. Jonquel Jones, NYL
7. Aliyah Boston, IND
8. Rhyne Howard, ATL
9. Kelsey Mitchell, IND
10. Marina Mabrey, CON
11. Brionna Jones, ATL
12. Allisha Gray, ATL
West
1. A’ja Wilson, LAV
2. Napheesa Collier, MIN
3. Kelsey Plum, LAS
4. Chelsea Gray, LAV
5. Cameron Brink, LAS
6. Jackie Young, LAV
7. Arike Ogunbowale, DAL
8. Nneka Ogwumike, SEA
9. Kayla McBride, MIN
10. Paige Bueckers, DAL
11. Alyssa Thomas, PHO
12. Jewell Loyd, LAV
Analysis
1: Minnesota Lynx
I think I’m higher than Minnesota than many others are, but
there are a few reasons for this. First,
they were so good last season, especially on defense, and appear to be primed
for another run. Second, they returned
almost everybody in their rotation, and replaced the one key role player they
lost in the Expansion Draft with another with a similar skillset. Possibly most importantly, they were so close
to winning the championship last season, so they’re probably going to be on an
absolute tear this season. Napheesa
Collier is a superstar who is coming off her best season, and she can do
everything, as she is an elite scorer, defender, and rebounder, while also
being a good playmaker and strong leader.
The only complaint I have about her is that she sometimes takes major risks
when trying to get a steal, but if that’s my only complaint then I’ll take
it. I loved the rotation they had with her
as a small ball 5 surrounded by good shooters, as the lineup allowed for a lot
of versatility on both ends and was so smooth.
Before last season, I made the mistake of classifying Kayla McBride as not
a star, but I think she proved me wrong, especially since I thought she made an
All-WNBA case last year. She is an elite
shooter and underrated playmaker who competes so hard that she makes up for
defensive deficiencies by being so pesky; she is the perfect second star on
this team since she can thrive when off-ball without a play drawn for her or
when the play calls for her to score. They
also have Alanna Smith (an elite defensive and rebounding forward who is versatile
and is coming off a year where she easily hit her career high from deep), Courtney
Williams (a competitive guard who is a good shooter, though doesn’t have the
best shot selection, and has developed into a great playmaker), Bridget Carleton
(a low-maintenance 3-and-D forward who had her best year last season), Dorka
Juhasz (a steady backup big with good ability on defense and a versatile
offense game), Karlie Samuelson (a 3-and-D guard whose shot looks legit after
the last couple years), Natisha Hiedeman (a solid backup guard who is an
undersized 3-and-D guard with some playmaking abilities), Diamond Miller (a raw
but athletic forward who hasn’t played much, but has shown glimpses), Alissa
Pili (a sharpshooting forward coming off a tough rookie year), and Jessica
Shepard (a solid backup forward/big who is a good finisher). Even if the shooting doesn’t go as well as it
did last year, I think they are well-positioned to have an amazing season. This might be insane, but I think they could
break the record for most wins a season, especially since I don’t think there is
a clearcut hierarchy after the top few teams (it also helps that there will be
44 games this year, so they have 4 additional games that weren’t available for Vegas
when they won 34 games).
X-Factor: The
biggest key to their success next year is that last year’s shooting numbers
weren’t flukes. In particular, Smith and
Carleton had easily career years, and Samuelson wasn’t an excellent shooter
until two years ago. If any of these
players struggle, the easiest answer would be to give Alyssa Pili more playing
time. While she had a tough rookie season,
she is a great shooter who has nice size.
She will likely be limited defensively, but she is a good enough shooter
and strong finisher to hopefully make it all worthwhile.
2: New York
Liberty
Now that New York has won a championship, I expect a lot of
people will predict them to win another just by nature of them going far last
year and having a great roster on paper.
I still think they will be great, but there’s a couple of issues. First, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, who has been a
valuable player for them on both ends as a 3-and-D wing with some extra pop, is
likely to miss the season due to a meniscus injury. On top of that, while several players are
expected to leave during the season for the Euro championship games, New York
will likely be hit harder than most with players who play a role. Despite all of this, they still have stars,
starting with Breanna Jones, who can do everything and is one of the best players
in the game despite coming off a tough shooting season. Sabrina Ionescu has truly evolved her game,
as now she has developed into a strong and smart off-ball player after looking
so good on-ball early in her career but not as good off-ball; she really shines
when paired with multiple other stars. Now
that Jonquel Jones has become comfortable in New York, she is one of the most
important players on the team, as she can do anything on the court while being
an excellent defender as a small-ball big or a forward in a bigger lineup. They also have Natasha Cloud (an awesome defensive
and playmaking guard, though she is a bad shooter), Leonie Fiebich (a
sharpshooting wing with great size), Marine Johannes (a sharpshooting off-ball
guard), Nyara Sabally (a great defensive and finishing big who burst onto the
scene in Game 5 of the Finals due to a risky but brilliant adjustment), Isabelle
Harrison (a competitive defensive forward with nice size), Ivana Dojkic (a guard
with a nice jumper), and Marquesha Davis (a competitive defensive guard with
size to be a forward who is coming off a tough rookie year). Even while I have some concerns with them, they
should still be contending for the championship.
X-Factor: Courtney
Vandersloot was a valuable player for them in the regular season, but her role
was reduced in the playoffs after it became clear that she was a mismatch
defensively and was hesitant to shoot. With
her departure to Chicago, the natural solution is to have Natasha Cloud fill
the role, as the additional playmaking and defense are valuable things to have
on the court, but they will run into the same issues in the playoffs. While Cloud is much more willing to shoot
than Vandersloot, how will Cloud hold up when she cannot shoot efficiently (not
if, but when, since she is very inefficient)?
That will be something that could cause problems, especially with
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton missing the season.
3: Las Vegas Aces
While I personally like this team, I do have some questions
regarding their bench and how the stars will fit given a major change. A’ja Wilson is coming off one of the best
seasons in WNBA history and can do just about anything on both ends; I
especially believe that having her play the 5 has totally unlocked her offensive
game. After an Unrivaled season where
she looked healthy, I would guess that Chelsea Gray will be much better than
she was last season, which was a big part of Vegas’s disappointing season; she
is such a talented point guard who can also operate off the ball due to her
high IQ and strength, which makes her such a great fit alongside the other
guards on the team. Jackie Young was
also dealing with a nagging injury last year, so a return to form will be
awesome for her, even if she was great last year anyways; she is an amazing
shooter who is also so smart both on and off the ball while also developing
into a very good playmaker. The biggest
question is how Jewell Loyd will fit in the void left by Kelsey Plum’s
departure; she’s a good shooter and is a better defender than Plum, but she’s always
been an inefficient finisher who is a bit too trigger happy and is coming off
an atrocious shooting year. They also
have Kiah Stokes (a good defensive big who is a massive negative on offense), Dana
Evans (a competitive backup guard who had a career shooting year out of
nowhere), Tiffany Mitchell (a solid defensive guard who doesn’t do much offensively),
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus (an awesome defensive forward who is also a good finisher,
though she will likely miss a good chunk of the year due to pregnancy), Megan
Gustafson (a good backup big who is a good shooter and finisher), and Kierstan
Bell (a forward who I can’t give up on yet due to her defensive upside). Despite some concerns, I don’t think they
will finish as low as fourth again; I think they are better than every team
outside of Minnesota and New York.
X-Factor: Kiah
Stokes will likely be starting for Vegas again, as she is an awesome defender who
can switch and relieves the pressure for Wilson for the beginning of the
game. The question with her has been her
offense, where she has been atrocious; in her 3 full seasons with Vegas, she
has never topped a 47 eFG%, 2.3 PPG, and 2.1 FGA. Last year was the worst of all, as she
attempted more 3’s than 2’s (1 per game vs. 0.6), but had more than double the 2P%
than 3P% (50% vs. 22.5%), meaning she was favoring an incredibly inefficient
and non-optimal shot. I have written in
the past that her defender could leave her wide open as long as she wasn’t in
the paint, and last year proved to be true.
They likely need her to play significant minutes due to their lack of
depth after their top-4, but how does it work this year, especially with Loyd
also often being an inefficient scorer?
4: Indiana Fever
It’s possible that Indiana ends up finishing higher since they
are an enticing team on paper, but I don’t believe they are as good as the three
teams I have ahead of them (though Vegas isn’t a lock). After a strong rookie year, Caitlin Clark
will probably be one of the top finishers for the MVP due to her popularity;
she is an amazing offensive player, especially as a shooter and playmaker,
though she needs to improve her defense.
Aaliyah Boston has already proven that she will likely be a star in the
W for years to come, but despite her talent as a rebounder, finisher, and
passer, the fit with Clark was a bit clunky for most of the season; I think
Clark developing as a player to make it where she can play with bigs in ways
other than the pick-and-roll will help Boston out, who can provide more than
she was allowed last season. Kelsey
Mitchell has always appeared to be on path for stardom, as she is an amazing
shooter, but she was even better in an off-ball role last year, as I thought
she even had a serious case of being an All-WNBA player last season. Indiana made an intriguing move this
offseason in signing DeWanna Bonner, who has always been a streaky but
confident shooter and is skilled on both ends, especially as a versatile
defender who can guard most positions; I also think her jumper will be a bit
more consistent this year given the shooting that is surrounding her,
especially compared to a putrid shooting Connecticut team from last
season. They also have Natasha Howard (a
consistent and versatile forward on both ends with nice defensive skillset, a streaky
jumper, and an improving passing game), Sophie Cunningham (a sharpshooting wing
who should fit beautifully with Clark), Lexie Hull (a sharpshooter coming off
an exceptional second half of the season), Brianna Turner (an amazing defensive
forward who can guard multiple positions), Damiris Dantas (a solid rebounder
and defender who also improved her shooting), and Sydney Colson (a nice backup veteran
guard who shot well last year). Another
key thing to watch this season is how new head coach Stephanie White,
especially since she has never been the best coach in half-court offense. Even with that, I expect they’ll be good.
X-Factor: Through
her first 6 seasons in the league, Brianna Turner has shown that she is a
valuable defender, as she is an amazing individual defender who can guard
multiple positions, has a high IQ on defense, and is adept as a help
defender. Last season, she barely played
for Chicago since they overloaded on bigs and someone was going to be the odd one
out. This year, Turner makes the most sense
as a backup big, but I think it will be interesting to see what she does on
offense. She doesn’t shoot the ball much
at all (her career high in attempts per game is 6.1) and never stretches the
floor, which makes me curious how the fit with Clark will be unless pick-and-rolls
are set. Even if she isn’t much
offensively, she has never appeared bothered with focusing on defense, so that
makes her a valuable fit on this team.
5: Atlanta Dream
Seeds 5-10 are a bit up in the air; I have no idea what to make
of any of these teams and don’t love any of them, but four of them have to make
the playoffs by default. Atlanta is the team
that feels the safest out of these teams to finish in 5th. In order to reach their upside, Rhyne Howard,
who has been an aggressive scorer and solid defender, needs to take a jump to
the next tier of stardom; while she is a skilled player who can do a lot more
than she is given credit for, she has always been an inefficient scorer, which
is something that she needs to improve on.
They signed Brittney Griner in the offseason, which is an interesting
addition to the team; while she hasn’t been what she was prior to being
detained in Russia (which makes sense given that she was detained in a Russian
penal colony), she has still been an All-Star level player who is a great
finisher and defender who also offers playmaking and shooting ability. They also signed Brionna Jones, another big
who is a good defender and finisher, though she has always had limitations in
the playoffs. While the fit might seem a
little strange to have Griner and Jones both on the court together, Jones had consistently
played with other bigs in Connecticut, so I think the fit can work. In my opinion, Allisha Gray needs to be the
third best player on this team; she is a great defender, shooter, and secondary
playmaker, who I think will be even better with other stars to focus on. They also have Jordin Canada (a great
playmaker and defender who struggled with injuries last year), Naz Hillmon (a
nice defensive forward/big who is improving as a finisher), Shatori
Walker-Kimbrough (a solid backup guard with a streaky but solid jumper), Nia
Coffey (a solid backup forward whose shot is streaky but good when it’s on), Shyanne
Sellers (a skilled rookie guard who they acquired off waivers that I had 3rd
on my draft board), and Te-Hina PaoPao (a rookie who is a great shooter). I think they will be good this year, though
they need several players to prove it.
X-Factor: Nia
Coffey has always been a solid defender, but the biggest question about her
game is how her jumper will be that year.
While she is a career 36.4% shooter from deep, her last 4 years has
consisted of 2 seasons of 2 seasons above 40% and 2 years below 30%. Atlanta could really use the shooting off the
bench, so that would be especially beneficial if she rebounded from her
atrocious year from deep last year. She
deserves minutes due to her defensive intensity, but the shooting will be
needed given that they have 3 stars who don’t rely on 3’s.
6: Chicago Sky
It doesn’t quite make sense for me to have Chicago where I
do, but it feels like they are desperately trying to make the playoffs, which
might allow them to finish ahead of the teams that are flawed. Angel Reese had a successful rookie year, but
she is one of the strangest stars; she is one of the best rebounders the game
has ever seen and is a great defender, but she is so inefficient from everywhere
on the court, which is something that she needs to improve on. Now that she has a year under her belt, I
think Cardoso could have a jump; while she had her inconsistencies, she is a
good finisher and defender who is really smart on both ends. Chicago has made it clear that they’re ready
to compete by giving up a decent amount to trade for Ariel Atkins, who is one
of the league’s best perimeter defenders and a good shooter; I think she’ll fit
in very well with this team on both ends.
They also have Courtney Vandersloot returning to Chicago (a legendary
point guard who is still an elite playmaker), Rebecca Allen (a great shooter
who is a solid help defender in the right system), Elizabeth Williams (an amazing
defensive big who is returning from injury), Rachel Banham (a sharpshooting
guard), Michaela Onyenwere (a young forward with nice size coming off her best
shooting year), Hailey Van Lith (a rookie guard who is an aggressive scorer and
underrated playmaker), Kia Nurse (a competitive guard/wing, though she has
struggled since her ACL injury a few years ago), and Moriah Jefferson (a
competitive backup guard who is coming off a tough season). While it’s possible that they miss the
playoffs, I think that the combination of organic internal improvement and the
new additions they made will allow them to improve from last season.
X-Factor: How
real was Michaela Onyenwere’s shot last season?
There was always potential for her to be a good shooter due to her free
throw numbers and how the shot looked, but she was never consistent with it
until last year, when she shot 36.8% from deep (albeit on 2 attempts per
game). This team needs shooting,
especially in their starting lineup alongside Reese, Cardosa, and Vandersloot. If the shot is either a fluke or is streaky,
it could be difficult for her to find as consistent minutes as she received
last season.
7: Seattle Storm
While they have the star power to finish higher, a big thing
to watch is injuries, especially now that they have likely lost Jordan Horston
and Nika Mühl for the entire season with ACL injuries. While neither were stars, it does impact
their depth, which wasn’t amazing to begin with. While 34 and turning 35 during the season,
Nneka Ogwumike remains one of the most underrated superstars in the league; she
is an excellent scorer from everywhere, an exceptional and versatile defender,
and a skilled passer out of the post. Skylar
Diggins is coming off a difficult first year back from maternity leave in terms
of efficiency, but she is still an amazing playmaker and competitive scorer who
should be better alongside Ogwumike now that they’ve been together for a
year. Ezi Magbegor is only 25, which is
insane to say since she is one of the best defenders in the league; while she
is also a good finisher at the rim, I’m interested in seeing if her shooting
from 2 years ago was just a fluke. They
also have Dominique Malonga (a rookie who will probably have her
inconsistencies this year, but has high upside due to her size, athleticism,
and skillset), Alysha Clark (a versatile defender and great shooter who has been
a valuable player for several contending teams, including in her previous stint
in Seattle), Gabby Williams (an amazing defender who is hasn’t developed a ton
of offensive talents), Katie Lou Samuelson (a wing with nice size and good shot
who is now another year removed from her missed season for maternity leave), Erica
Wheeler (a solid backup guard who is looking to rebound after a tough year last
year), Lexie Brown (a competitive guard who is hoping to play more like she did
in 2023), and Li Yueru (a big with amazing size). While their depth is better than it was last
year, I’m not sure the team is as good, especially without Jewell Loyd (even
while she had a tough year last year).
X-Factor: After
appearing to finally find a role in the league, Katie Lou Samuelson found a
niche by being a consistent 3 point shooter, as she consistently topped 35%. After missing 2023 for maternity leave, she
came back last year and struggled across the board, though her 3P% ended up
being 33%. I think she should be able to
be better now that she has another year under her belt. Something to watch is that she has struggled
from 2 the last couple seasons, not even topping 40% over that stretch. That said, she has embraced the fact that the
3 is generally her most efficient shot and has continued to shoot more 3’s. While Seattle’s depth is a tiny bit better
from last season, it’s still not great, and they need her to shoot more like
she did prior to her leave; I think she can.
8: Los Angeles
Sparks
I am torn on L.A. this year; on the one hand, I could see
them being a competitive team due to the players on their teams, but on the
other, I think there will be issues with fit, how some veterans have been over
the last few years, and how young a few players are. Their biggest offseason move they made was trading
the second overall pick and some players to get Kelsey Plum, an offensive
superstar; the hope is that she makes them immediate contenders due to her scoring
aggressiveness, shooting ability, underrated playmaking, and competitiveness on
defense. Another major addition is
Cameron Brink returning from injury; prior to her injury, she was looking like
a great shot blocker and rebounder immediately, though questions still remain about
her fouling and finishing, both of which were concerns entering the
league. While people are ready to call
her a superstar, I think Brink needs to still to develop a little more. Their biggest breakout star from last season was
Dearica Hamby, who had her best season to date at the age of 30 last year; she’s
always been a great finisher and defender, but she also rebounded, assisted,
and shot 3’s at career levels last year, though we’ll see how real all of it is
(some of it can certainly be replicable).
They also have Rickea Jackson (an aggressive and skilled scorer and
shooter who had a nice rookie year, though she still has some skills to
develop), Azura Stevens (a big with nice size, defense, and shooting ability), Rae
Burrell (a nice shooter with potential defensively), Odyssey Sims (a steady playmaking
guard with a ton of experience), Mercedes Russell (a consistent defensive big
with some finishing ability), Sarah Ashlee Barker (a rookie who is very skilled
at a lot of aspects of the game), and Aari McDonald (a competitive guard who is
an underrated playmaker). I’m not sure
just how good they will be; no matter what happens, I think they will be an
interesting team.
X-Factor: After
her final year in Chicago in 2022, I considered Azura Stevens to be one of the
best free agents that offseason, as she demonstrated impressive ability as a
shooter, defender, and finisher while being the runner-up for the Sixth Woman
of the Year award. The issue is that she
hasn’t been the same so far in L.A.; while her shooting improved last year, the
finishing ability and defense weren’t quite as good as they were in Chicago. That said, I would have her fill the 6th
woman role and play her anytime any of Brink, Hamby, or Jackson are off the
court. I think this role will allow her
to face less pressure early on which will allow her to get into a smoother
routine as the game goes on, hopefully allowing her to improve.
9: Phoenix Mercury
I get it, having Phoenix missing the playoffs is going to be
considered a hot take because they are trotting out a big 3 that is better than
their big 3 that was the 7 seed, but I challenge anyone who thinks they will be
good to name who their other starters will be, let alone who will be in their
rotation. This question is a little bit
of a cheap trick on my part since I am writing this before the lineups are
finalized, but there’s a lot of players who I am just confused by the
selections for training camp. After
acquiring her in a sign and trade, Alyssa Thomas, one of the best players in
the league, is now going to be their best player; she is an elite playmaker,
rebounder, and defender who has been a finalist for MVP each of the last few
seasons. While Thomas is amazing at
making other players better on offense while also being a versatile player on
both ends (she’s a point guard with forward size who is so strong), it’s worth
noting that her game was optimized in 2023 when Connecticut played more
shooters. Their best player from last
year, Kahleah Copper, is back, and after having arguably the best season of her
career (if I had an MVP vote, I would have had her 3rd after A’ja
Wilson and Napheesa Collier), I think she’ll be more efficient alongside
Thomas; she is an aggressive scorer who was a good shooter in Chicago when she
wasn’t as much of the focus. They took a
big risk in signing Satou Sabally, a skilled forward with nice size; in 2023,
she was 5th in MVP, but she was only healthy one other season (2020,
which only had 16 games due to the Bubble).
When healthy, she is an impressive scorer, shooter, passer, rebounder,
and defender who can easily be the best player on a team. After that, I genuinely don’t know who will
even make the team (Phoenix has not announced their roster decisions at the
time of writing), let alone play a role, so the players I’m listing are those
who I think make the most sense to make the team; my apologies if I discuss any
players who do not make the team. Some
potential players they could have include Sami Whitcomb (a competitive defender
and solid shooter who is coming off a tough season from deep), Natasha Mack (a good
defensive forward who is a strong finisher), Kalani Brown (a strong finishing
center), Monique Akoa-Makani (a rookie who was a good playmaker and shooter in
Europe), Kitija Laksa (a good shooting rookie who has played in Europe over the
last few years), Kathryn Westbeld (a rookie who was a role player in college
before dominating in the paint in Europe), Celeste Taylor (a good defensive guard
who looked promising in her rookie year), and Murjanatu Musa (a good rebounding
and shooting big who has played internationally for the last several
years). It’s entirely possible that this
team ends up being a playoff team no problem, but I have concerns with their
depth, especially when one member of their big 3 is often injured.
X-Factor: The
only role player who I feel confident will make the roster is Sami Whitcomb, so
let’s discuss her in this section.
Throughout her career, she has been a very good shooter and competitive
defender. After it took her 7 years to
make the league after graduating, she has been a low-maintenance player willing
to start or come off the bench and do the dirty work. Whitcome had a difficult year from deep last
year, but the hope has to be that she shoots well this year, especially since
Alyssa Thomas operates best on offense when there are shooters to pass to. I think she will have a bounce back year.
10: Dallas Wings
While it’s possible that Dallas ends up making the playoffs,
I don’t think it will be the easiest path for them and that a lot will have to
go right for them. One thing that has
gone right for them so far is selecting Paige Bueckers with the overall number
one pick in the draft; she is a smart and skilled player on both ends who is
more of a score first guard who can still be a playmaker, likely projecting to
be a star in the W. I’m interested to
see how she pairs with their current star Arike Ogunbowale, a score first guard
who has inconsistent shot selection, but is an aggressive scorer and talented
shooter with underrated playmaking ability.
I could see the fit being a bit clunky at first, but it could be fun to
watch. They also have NaLyssa Smith (an
athletic forward who is a good defender and finisher and will be looking to get
a fresh start with Dallas), DiJonai Carrington (an athletic forward who is a
great defender), Tyasha Harris (a good shooter and competitive defensive
guard), Teaira McCowan (a great finishing and rebounding center), Maddy
Siegrist (an aggressive finisher with shooting upside), Myisha Hines-Allen (a competitive
forward who is a good shooter, defender, and finisher), and Aziaha James (a rookie
who is a competitive though undersized scoring guard). While there are some interesting individual
players, the biggest concerns I have about this team are the youth, depth, and fit.
X-Factor: I
never thought I would be saying that NaLyssa Smith would be eligible for this
and not be a star after her second season, but it showed that she wasn’t a
right fit offensively in Indiana alongside Caitlin Clark. That said, Smith is still a valuable player,
as she is athletic, a good defender, and a good finisher, even if there is some
development needed. What I am most
interested in about how she plays is if they use her as a big. Outside of Teaira McCowan, there isn’t an
obvious big who will get a ton of playing time, which will be tough for Paige
Bueckers initially since she plays best with a screen setting big. Why not try using Smith in for the role? While Smith has always been more of a forward,
she is strong and athletic, which would make her a great pick-and-roll finisher,
allowing Bueckers more space and Smith to get some open looks.
11: Golden State
Valkyries
This will be a weird post to write because I don’t even know
who Golden State will have on their roster considering they have favored both
competitive players and international players between the expansion draft,
draft, and free agency. My apologies in
advance if I don’t discuss players who play key roles, as I have no idea who
will remain on the team after training camp.
They really don’t have any stars, but let’s talk about former All-Star
and reigning 6th Woman of the Year Tiffany Hayes. Hayes has magically been an efficient scorer
over the last few years, but I’m interested to see how she handles consistently
being the focus of defenses. As for the
rest of the team, they have Temi Fagbenle (a steady finishing big who is good
in the pick-and-roll game), Kayla Thornton (a solid defensive wing who shot
well last year), Monique Billings (a versatile bigger forward who is a reliable
defender but inconsistent offensive player), Cecilia Zandalasini (a
sharpshooting 3-and-D forward), Juste Jocyte (a rookie guard who is raw, but is
a big guard with intriguing upside), Stephanie Talbot (a good shooting backup
big), Julie Vanloo (a competitive defender with a streaky shot), Kate Martin (a
wing with a nice jumper), Carla Leite (a raw rookie who played well on both
ends in Australia last season), and Veronica Burton (a competitive guard who looks
like a good shooter and defender). While
I’m low on them, it might seem like a surprise that I don’t have them in
last. I think they’ll be bad, but I
believe that their identity and veterans who are competitive will make them
stumble into a few more wins than the two teams after them.
X-Factor: If
someone were to look at her isolated numbers without any context, someone might
be confused with my belief that Cecilia Zandalasini could be one of the best
players on this team. She didn’t play a large
number of minutes due to Minnesota being so talented and deep, but she carved a
role as a low-maintenance 3-and-D sharpshooter who is competitive on both
ends. I wouldn’t be shocked if she has
the ball in her hands a little more with this team out of need, which is
something I think will be interesting to see.
While there have been glimpses of her making good passes, I wonder if
she can be strong in a prominent role on the ball. I wouldn’t be shocked if she gets Most
Improved Player votes, but I’m curious just how good she can be in the role.
12: Connecticut
Sun
There are two teams that I think could be comically bad: Connecticut and Washington. After making 6 straight Conference Finals but
never winning the Championship (they made the Finals twice, but were clearly overmatched
both times), they traded their entire starting lineup and fired head coach
Stephanie White (to their credit, she wasn’t even subtle about the fact that
she preferred to be coaching Indiana). The
reason I think Connecticut will be better than Washington is because Connecticut
has a good shooter who will shoot them into enough wins in Marina Mabrey. While there is a trade request that Mabrey
submitted (I could see the demand being high for her at the trade deadline),
she is an amazing shooter who is a solid playmaker coming off her the best
basketball of her career after being traded to Connecticut; I could see her
being an All-Star since there’s almost always a high-volume scorer on a bad
team that is selected, and I could see Mabrey average as many as 25 PPG this
year. The most interesting dynamic to
watch is how Tina Charles fits with this team; while she is still a good player
who has shooting, passing, and finishing ability, she is 36, hasn’t stuck with
a team for more than a season, has prioritized starting over coming off the
bench, and would be taking away minutes from Olivia Nelson-Ododa, who I was
interested in seeing how she could do in a starting role. They also have the aforementioned Nelson-Ododa
(a young big with upside as a finisher and defender), Leila Lacan (a young
international rookie who is raw but has an intriguing skillset and upside), Lindsay
Allen (a steady playmaker, though an inefficient scorer and inconsistent defender),
Jacy Sheldon (a raw guard who still has some upside despite a tough rookie
year), Nikolina Milic (a solid shooter with nice size), Aneesah Morrow (a rookie
who got a lot of hype with her energy, though I’m pessimistic on her future in
the W), and Saniya Rivers (a rookie who is a good defender but can’t do
anything offensively off the ball). They
won’t be good for a few years, but we’ll see how long they stay true to their
decision to not trade Mabrey, who would net a lot of value while being unlikely
to resign with the team.
X-Factor: Now
that Diamond DeShields was surprisingly waived (I originally wrote about her
for this section), Connecticut will likely be going with Lindsay Allen, Jacy
Sheldon, and Bria Hartley as their point guards. While I would guess that Allen will be
granted the first chance, I think Sheldon is an interesting prospect to
develop. She had a bad rookie year, but
there are glimpses of playmaking and shooting with decent size. The biggest question is what her defense will
look like this year. Prior to her being
drafted, I said that I thought it would take a couple years to improve as a
defender, but she was atrocious defensively last season. If she is a little better defensively and is
serviceable as a shooter and playmaker, then it might be worth a shot to start
her.
13: Washington
Mystics
While I expect Connecticut will also be terrible, the bad
news for Washington fans who want competitive basketball is that there really
isn’t a clear path to success for this year.
The best thing is to allow their young players to continue to develop,
but the difficult news is that Georgia Amoore could miss the entire season with
an ACL injury (I didn’t expect her to be that good this year, but that could be
an issue in the future, especially as a smaller guard who did utilize
athleticism a decent amount in college).
I don’t think they have a star, but I believe their best current player
is Brittney Sykes, who is an elite perimeter defender as a guard who had her
best shooting year two seasons ago; while she was hurt half of last season, I’m
curious to see if that was a fluke.
Their two obvious players to build around are Aaliyah Edwards and
Shakira Austin. Edwards still looks a bit
raw offensively, but she was good as a defender and rebounder last year; I don’t
think she’ll be an All-Star at any point, but I could see her being a good
starter who could compete for an All-Defense team. Austin has been an amazing defender over her 3
seasons, but she has been injured for most of the last two seasons; if she gets
healthy, she and Edwards could develop into an awesome defensive forward-big
combo. They also have Stefanie Dolson (an
amazing shooting big with a bunch of experience), Sonia Citron (the third pick in
the draft this year who can do just about everything), Kiki Irafen (a high
energy rookie forward who I am lower on, but is a competitive defender), Jade
Melbourne (a guard with 3-and-D upside), and Sika Kone (a raw forward who has
nice size and upside, especially defensively); if they make it out of training
camp, they also have Emily Engstler (a forward with 3-and-D upside who hasn’t
gotten much playing time anywhere) and Sug Sutton (an inefficient scorer but
solid playmaker who could be a nice backup if she can play like she did in
2023). It will probably be rough for a
little while, but they have potential role players that they can develop; if
they get lucky in the next couple years, they could have draft a young star for
a well-developed team.
X-Factor: With
Georgia Amoore injured, there isn’t a clear point guard on the roster after
Brittney Sykes. While Sug Sutton makes
the most sense, I wonder what Jade Melbourne could do with the play in her hand
a little more. She was largely off-ball
over the past two years, but there were moments where she had it a little more in
her hands last year out of desperation, and…it honestly didn’t go well. That said, while I think she is best suited to
be a 3-and-D guard, she’s a bit small for a 2 and has shown some passing
ability. I wonder if she and Citron
could pair together as secondary playmakers who rotate the lead playmaking role
when Sykes is on the bench.
What do you think of this season? Any teams or players you are looking forward to? Let me know in the comments!
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