2025 NBA Finals Predictions

After an exciting, chaotic, and entertaining first 3 rounds of the playoffs, we have reached the NBA Finals!  I typically make predictions regarding the Finals with a bit of analysis, but I honestly feel like nobody actually knows what’s going on anymore, as I feel like I don’t.  Out of the Conference Finalists, I only predicted one correctly (even the one I got right took 7 games in the second round to make it there), which is the fewest I have ever predicted.  With the combination of weird series results, smaller markets going far, several superstars missing out, and the inevitable discussion about ratings (even though ratings don’t really matter to anyone given the fact that streaming makes these numbers difficult, let alone mattering to fans who will harp on them relentlessly), the basketball itself will likely be an afterthought, which is unfortunate for this series, which could be fun, though is often the norm with the sport.

Theoretically, Oklahoma City should wipe the floor with Indiana.  Indiana is a good team, but there are counters for everything they have.  In particular, Indiana is facing a team that doesn’t turn the ball over much, defends the fast break well, can shoot well, defends both quickly and physically, can match the speed, will run up the score, and has a ton of bodies.  Every single one of Indiana’s players appears to either have a better counterpart or someone who can thwart them from the OKC side.  With this, it would be intuitive to rule out Indiana in this situation, but despite it being a difficult matchup for Indiana, they’ve shown they’re a great team and cannot be ruled out.

There are a few things that I think Indiana has going for them.  First off, they have been shooting incredibly well during the playoffs; in fact, the only starter that hasn’t topped 40% from deep during the playoffs is Tyrese Haliburton, who is probably the best shooter from the mix.  Oklahoma City’s players can be streaky from deep (they especially have been in the playoffs), so you can count on Indiana winning at least one shootout.  Another thing to consider is how Oklahoma City defends the fastbreak baskets that come after a made basket.  This is something most teams aren’t used to since these don’t usually exist, but Indiana exploited this against New York on multiple occasions.  Lastly, you cannot rule out Rick Carlisle outcoaching everybody; while Mark Daignault is an excellent coach, Carlisle has proven during this playoff run that he is an excellent and brilliant basketball mind who has outcoached some excellent coaches.

I still think OKC will win, but I don’t think it will be a sweep; Indiana’s offense should carry them to 3 competitive games, with 2 being wins.

Here are some other things I am curious about throughout the series:

• Will OKC treat Haliburton like they treated Nikola Jokic and force him to score?  While a great shooter, Haliburton will go through stretches where he is not aggressive.  Additionally, he has been passive against OKC a bunch over the last couple seasons in the regular season matchups.  I wouldn’t even double Haliburton at any point unless he’s torching OKC and another player is struggling.
• Lu Dort will likely start on Haliburton.  If Haliburton gets by him, they will likely have Alex Caruso or Cason Wallace guard Haliburton (I also expect OKC will just keep throwing bodies at Haliburton to give Dort a break).  If they need one of those guys near the end of a game, what does this mean for Dort?  Would they not play him, or would they throw him on someone like Pascal Siakam?  Honestly, I’m not a huge fan of either of those moves.
• I expect Andrew Nembhard will be stuck guarding Jalen Williams (unless they do something crazy and throw Nembhard on Chet Holmgren, but that would mean Pascal Siakam would have to guard Williams).  How does Williams handle this matchup?  Williams is a great player, though he has inconsistencies offensively still.
• I’m interested to see who OKC has their two bigs guarding.  I expect Holmgren will be on Siakam and Isaiah Hartenstein will be on Myles Turner for a good chunk of the series, though I would consider switching them.  Turner is not the most traditionally physical big, which suites Holmgren better, and while Siakam is a great shooter, he’s an even better finisher at the rim, which can be thwarted a bit if Hartenstein is in the paint.
• I think both teams should use smaller lineups a decent amount; if they do, can we see matchups where Obi Toppin and Kenrich Williams are the bigs going up against each other?  I hope so; that would be so fast paced and chaotic.
• Both teams are great at forcing turnovers, but also rarely turn the ball over.  While this conundrum will be interesting in general, I’m curious about how Indiana creates baskets in the half court, which isn’t their strongest suit.
• Neither team is elite at rebounding.  In particular, the only player who I would say is a great rebounder is Isaiah Hartenstein (though Holmgren is good at it).  How will Indiana do at keeping Hartenstein off the glass?  I’m genuinely not sure how they do this, especially if Turner is out.
• In general, shooting often is the first thing to go as players get tired.  However, OKC’s 3P% has dropped nearly 4 percentage points from the regular season (from 37.4% to 33.6%).  How real is this?  The reason that I’m not sold on this being more than a fluke is because it’s such a small sample size (16 games), but almost everyone is shooting worse (worth mentioning that Alex Caruso is tearing it up from 3 and is more confident).  If it is legit, how do they combat Indiana shooting well?
• Indiana has been relentless with full court press this offseason; while I don’t have the updated stat, I think going into the Conference Finals they were picking up ball handlers over 50 feet from the rim on average (that number is just comedic).  It will be interesting to see how OKC handles this press.

 

Prediction:  Oklahoma City, 4-2

 

Who do you think will win?  What are you looking forward to in the Finals?  Let me know in the comments!