I Screwed Up: How I Was So Wrong About the Phoenix Mercury

This post is a part of WNBA Week+.  During this stretch, I will release several blog posts related to the WNBA, including news stories, player discussions, and teams’ seasons.

 

If you’ve been following my releases on either blog or my podcast for a while, you know that I enjoy making predictions.  Obviously, predictions are right or wrong, which is part of the fun of these in my opinion.  While I have had several predictions in either music or basketball that were spectacularly right, I also have several that have been horribly wrong (the pair I always reference in music was back around 2012, prior to my podcast or blogs, when I predicted that two of the biggest rock acts in the world would end up being Tame Impala, which I felt good about after they headlined Coachella in 2019, and Unknown Mortal Orchestra…oops).  While I had some predictions this WNBA season that have been correct (most notably that Minnesota would be dominant and could end up chasing the record for most wins in a season), I got some wrong (I thought Washington and Golden State would be in the bottom-3 this season).  The one that I got most wrong was that I predicted that the Phoenix Mercury would miss the playoffs; the catch is that they are comfortably in a top-5 spot at the time of writing and are a contender for the 2-seed.

Before looking at some of the reasons I was wrong, I think it is important to highlight why I was hesitant about Phoenix.  While I thought their big-3 would fit well, I was worried about injuries.  On top of that, I was worried about their depth; their depth was largely made up of rookies who had played in international leagues previously instead of directly coming from college (with several not being drafted).  On top of that, both Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally dealt with injuries at different point (especially with Copper missing significant time), so I thought there was no chance that they would play well.  Even while they have struggled a bit since the last All-Star break, but they are still one of the top teams in the league.  With that, let’s evaluate some of the reasons why they have been so good.

 

Alyssa Thomas is playing like an MVP

Thomas is one of the best players in the WNBA, so it isn’t surprising to say that she is an MVP candidate, especially since she was a top-5 finisher each of the last 3 seasons.  This season has been different though, since Phoenix has also played more to her playing style.  She went from a team that had a plodding half-court offense and inconsistent shooting in Connecticut to a team that has much better spacing, which is such a clean fit.  While having career highs in usage and points, she has career highs in assists per game (while also decreasing her turnovers from last year) and efficiency from the field.   She is also playing great at the defensive end, demonstrating just how elite she is at both ends of the court.

 

Their offense is fast paced, which fits well with the team

Prior to the 2023 season, I was adamant that Alyssa Thomas was a point guard who would be best utilized in a faster paced offense than Connecticut.  Halfway through the season, All-Star big Brionna Jones went down with an injury, forcing Connecticut to do what I dreamed of:  start Thomas at point guard on offense and surround her with an additional guard/wing in lieu of Jones and go much faster.  The result was beautiful and resulted in Thomas’s best playmaking prior to this season (while her efficiency was down, she had such a big offensive load and still didn’t have elite spacing around her).  It looks like Phoenix took a page of this book on offense, and it has maximized most of their players, not just Thomas.  While Thomas is having her best season to date, Copper has been elite from deep, Sabally has looked good in her role even while her shot isn’t falling, and all of their supporting cast members have filled in smoothly.  While their efficiency from the field has been inconsistent, limiting their half court offense, they play at one of the fastest paces in the league which allows them to still have enough success on offense.

 

Their defense is excellent

As much fun as I have with their offense, Phoenix’s calling card is their defense.  I think an underrated part of their team building is the fact that they have so much length (a nice feature that occurs when Alyssa Thomas is your point guard is that you have the versatility to play another guard, but Phoenix has often paired her with another wing/forward instead).  While they don’t really have a true traditional rim protector, they make up for it by not allowing a ton of looks at the rim; at the time of writing, they allow the second fewest 2-point attempts per 100 possessions (the only team that allows fewer is Golden State), and opponents don’t shoot that well from there.  It feels like a lot of teams force 3’s against them because they struggle to do anything else, but opponents are shooting below league average from deep against Phoenix.  Opponents aren’t getting a lot of shots off as well (only Dallas has allowed fewer shots per 100 possessions), and a big part of that is because Phoenix is so good at forcing turnovers (only Seattle and Minnesota have forced more per 100 possessions).  This defense has allowed Phoenix to operate much quicker in transition, allowing their offense to operate at its best (and fastest).

 

DeWanna Bonner’s fit is perfect and helps their depth

While I’m not certain about what happened in Indiana with DeWanna Bonner, it seemed clear that it didn’t work, likely due to miscommunication about what her role was going to be.  It has already been clear that Bonner knew what her role was going to be upon entering Phoenix, and it has worked.  While in a complementary role compared to what she did in Connecticut as recently as last year (when I would have voted for her for All-WNBA if I had a vote), she has been more efficient than ever from 2 and has remained a threat to go off from deep.  While she has great chemistry already with Thomas (they are engaged, for crying out loud…and they were also teammates for 5 seasons prior to this year, which might be more important on the court), she has fit smoothly into the role that they want her to play on both ends of the court.  While I focused a lot on her offensive fit, I think her taking a lesser role on offense while still getting shots has allowed her to still play hard on defense, which is important since she is such a good defender, but also is 37.

 

Their spacing is good, even while they’re not great at shooting

There is something that is odd in basketball where people talk about a team having good spacing while only referring to the shooting.  While these often overlap, it is entirely possible for a team of good shooters to have poor spacing (this happens to the Boston Celtics when they start missing some shots, as they revert away from their driving-oriented offense and are largely stationary).  Phoenix has shot for an average clip this year, but their spacing has been really good.  I think the clearest indicator of this is just how well Thomas and Bonner have been from 2 compared to last season in Connecticut (who was atrocious at shooting and spacing).  While most of their supporting cast has been streaky from 3, a big part of their success is that at least one of their players are bound to go off based on probabilities, allowing more room on the arc to take pressure off the paint.  I think Copper’s elite shooting has played a huge role in this, especially since she has shown that she can really shoot well while playing alongside great playmakers in the past (which was largely missing from Phoenix’s lineup last season).

 

Everyone is comfortable in their roles

It feels obvious to say that a team is in better shape when players appear to be comfortable in their roles, but it truly appears that everyone has bought in.  Their big-3 appear to fit really well in the roles that they are in where each of the three get a lot of looks; it definitely helps that Copper has shown in the past that she has been willing to be a second or third scoring option on a contending team and that Thomas doesn’t seem as bothered by not taking as many shots, which easily allows Sabally to take a few more shots than the other two.  I previously discussed Bonner’s willingness to be in the role she plays, Sami Whitcomb appears more than happy to launch from deep when she gets the ball without being as worried about her star status, and their other rotation players seem totally fine with buying in on their roles at that moment.  I think the best example of this was when Phoenix trotted out a unique starting lineup on August 19^th, subbing out Monique Akoa Makani from the starting lineup, where started each game prior, for Whitcomb, who has been shooting better during this stretch.  I think that can often be a concern for teams to imagine egos and minutes, but Phoenix appears to not be worir

 

The natural question about them is what Phoenix’s ceiling is, but I don’t actually know; it’s possible that they make it to the Finals, especially if they’re the 2-seed, and it’s also possible that they end up losing in the first round in a 4-5 matchup, which is part of what makes seeds 2-5 fun this season.  However, I don’t worry about that when I watch them; I just find it so much fun to be entertained by them while laughing about just how wrong I was with my prediction.  While I’m not sure that this model should be the way going forward for teams, it fills me with joy to watch this team totally defy any expectations I had for them, which is part of what sports are all about.

 

What do you think of the Phoenix Mercury?  Let me know in the comments!