Late Season WNBA Tiers
With the WNBA season winding down, I decided it would be fun to give a status of where each team is. While I originally intended to release this in WNBA Week+, I got a little busy and this took a little longer than I expected. All records are after the games on 9/1.
Championship
Frontrunner
Minnesota
Lynx (32-8)
Minnesota has been the frontrunner all year; I thought they
would break the record for most wins in a WNBA season entering the year given
the fact that this is the first season with 44 games, and they can break the
record if they go 3-1 during the rest of the season. They have already almost clinched the top
seed, as they are 6 games up with 7 games remaining. They easily have the best offense and the
best defense, as well as an otherworldly net rating of +12.3. Napheesa Collier was the clear frontrunner
for MVP before getting injured (it’s much closer now), but she is still having
the best season of her amazing career. Kayla
McBride and Courtney Williams have both been excellent this year and are genuinely
the perfect stars to pair with Collier given their ability both on and off the
ball. Their depth has been great (even
with Dorka Juhasz opting out of this year, who was likely going to be a key
role player), as the team is made up of excellent shooters and versatile
defenders who fit with their stars. If
you need to find anything to nitpick or be afraid of besides health, Alanna
Smith’s free throw shooting has fallen off a cliff, as she is suddenly shooting
below 45% from the line (it is a small sample size though, as she is taking
fewer than 2 a game). At this point, I
would tell basketball fans to just watch them play and have fun with it, especially
offensively, where they have the best 3P% and 2P% in the league.
What to watch: The single season wins record, health, Alanna
Smith’s free throw struggles, the joy of watching this team play
Fighting
for Homecourt Advantage
Atlanta
Dream (26-14)
Prior to the season, I thought that Atlanta could be good
with the help of a potential MVP candidate; the catch is that I thought Rhyne
Howard would break out and have her best year, but instead it has been
30-year-old Allisha Gray who has been an MVP-candidate. Gray has been at her best season in every aspect
of the game, which has allowed Atlanta to be as good as they have been. Brionna Jones has also been great for them,
and several players have been comfortable in their roles, including Britney
Griner (who has been happy to be a role player and veteran leader for them) and
rookie Te-Hina PaoPao (who has embraced a role of sharpshooter no matter the
minutes she gets). While they were 13-10
on July 22nd, they have really been clicking since, as they are now
24-14 and have only 1 loss in their last 15 games where they lost by more than
2 points. A big part of this has been
because their defense has been among the best in the league; in particular,
they force opponents to shoot the most 2-pointers in the league while they have
allowed the lowest percentage. The areas
of concern are Howard’s inconsistency (this has been by far her least efficient
season from 3) and Jordin Canada’s health (she has only played 23 games, but has
been good when she plays). Something
else I am intrigued by is their spacing and shot consistency. It was no surprise that Atlanta would take a
ton of 3-pointers once Karl Smesko was hired as their head coach (when the head
coach at Florida Gulf Coast University, that was a huge part of their offense);
the issue is that they have the 2nd most attempts per game but the
10th best percentage. While
they have opened up the floor for 2-pointers more, I question if they are
utilizing the most effective offense with their shooting.
What to watch:
Rhyne Howard’s consistency, Jordin Canada’s health, shot selection, amazing
defense, Allisha Gray’s dominance
Las Vegas
Aces (26-14)
Remember when Las Vegas was 14-14 and it seemed like it was DefCon1? I can’t say I expected that they would have
won every game since at the time of writing.
They have been riding on A’ja Wilson so much, who is putting up hellacious
numbers on both ends of the court to follow her historic MVP season last
year. During this stretch, several
others have been playing better; Jackie Young is suddenly hitting her shots
again after struggling for a while, Chelsea Gray has been much better, Jewell
Loyd has been a much better fit off the bench (the fit was clunky from the
start, but she has the freedom to play on the ball more when coming off the bench),
and NaLyssa Smith has been a nice fit on both ends, while seemingly finding a
home. I do think they don’t have the
perfect 5th starter; they have tried Young (which didn’t work), Kiah
Stokes (who is a negative on offense), and Kierstan Bell (who has not been
efficient with her shot); I expect it will depend on the matchup, but I would
even consider going really small and try Dana Evans, though that would be an
issue with their spacing off the bench. Something
to note is that they have not been elite at either end of the court throughout
the season, as they were below average defensively and average
offensively. This makes me wonder what
version of Vegas is real, the 12-0 Vegas or the 14-14 Vegas? Their net rating is only +1.5, which is
around league average. The biggest contributor
to this is the fact that 9 of their 12 straight wins were by fewer than 10
points, so this stretch hasn’t boosted the net rating as much as one would
expect.
What to watch:
What version of Vegas is real, A’ja Wilson’s dominance, Jackie Young’s
improvement, how everyone fits together
New York
Liberty (24-16)
Some would see New York’s season and consider it
disappointing that they are not the first- or second-best team. The catch is that New York has had rotten
luck with injuries, most notably missing Breanna Stewart for a stretch of games
where they struggled (including the game she got hurt 3 minutes in, they went
5-9 while she was injured). Even with
that, their offense is still very good, especially with creating looks from deep. Something interesting with this is that Stewart
and Sabrina Ionescu, two elite shooters, suddenly cannot hit 3’s. Ionescu’s shot has always been streaky due to
her shot selection, but this year is worse than usual; on the other hand,
Stewart has been atrocious from deep the last two years, while only shooting
20% from deep this year. That said, the
team is still so much fun to watch given the offensive versatility and
size. In particular, I find the
chemistry of Jonquel Jones and the newly acquired Emma Meesseman to be a lot of
fun given their shooting, finishing, and playmaking at their size; it could be
even more fun once Stewart has her legs under her. Ultimately, if the team is healthy, I do believe
that they are a contender to make the Finals.
That said, the biggest road block would be if they finish 5th,
since not only would they have a difficult matchup in the first round, but they
also would lose home court advantage, where they have been much better. Of course, the most important thing for me to
watch is because Ellie the Elephant is the great mascot in sports. Seriously, if you have league pass, watch as
many New York Liberty games as you can for Ellie, if nothing else.
What to watch:
Health, the shooting of the stars, just how entertaining this team is,
Ellie the Elephant
Phoenix
Mercury (25-14)
While I already did a blog post about how I was so wrong I
was about Phoenix (I had them missing the playoffs), I still cannot discuss how
wrong I was about this team enough. Even
while dealing with some injuries, they are still a fair bet to be a top-4
team. Alyssa Thomas has been the
lynchpin of this team on both ends of the court, as she continues to be one of
the best playmakers and defenders in the league while also being a triple-double
machine. It has been especially fun to
watch what she has been able to do with more spacing than she had in
Connecticut while also still having the success in transition, which was how
Connecticut scored any points. The
combination of Thomas, Satou Sabally, and Kahleah Copper has worked well due to
their size and versatility, even with Copper’s injury and Sabally’s
inconsistency with her shot. Their depth,
which I had questions about entering the year, has been much better than I
expected, as their rookies have contributed in a variety of ways; DeWanna Bonner’s
addition has also been a key part of the addition. As the season progresses, I think it will be
interesting to watch how the chemistry of their stars continues to develop; I
also really like their defense. I also
think it will be interesting to see how their shot is consistent during the
playoffs, which will be essential in the playoffs with their half court
offense.
What to watch:
Alyssa Thomas’s dominance, defense, shooting consistency, how the
chemistry of their stars continues to develop
Fighting
for a playoff spot
Golden
State Valkyries (21-18)
No matter what happens with Golden State, this has to be
considered a massive success since no expansion has ever made the playoffs in
their first season. It doesn’t make any
sense that they are still so good, especially since Kayla Thornton, their
All-Star, has been injured for the season; since Thornton went down, they have
been 10-6. Their offense has been slightly
below league average, but they have had a good defense, and I genuinely believe
that the entire team has bought into head coach Natalie Nakase’s game plan, with
those who aren’t as strong at that end getting fewer minutes. They have had so many players play throughout
the season due to international commitments and injuries (Veronica Burton is
the only player who has topped 800 minutes at the time of writing, which is an
extreme oddity); not only is it so funny looking at who I discussed in my
preseason predictions compared to their current lineup, but even looking at
different parts of the season is insane to look at. It all shouldn’t work, as they don’t have a star,
shoot a ton of 3’s but are terrible from deep, and force so few turnovers and
blocked shots. That said, I watch them
and am just blown away by the fact that they’re able to win games pretty
easily. This doesn’t feel like a model
for success in the playoffs, but they could be a pesky team that is annoying
for a top team to have to face if they make it.
What to watch:
Who is playing for them down the stretch, defense, the earthquake that
happens if they make the playoffs
Indiana
Fever (21-19)
I don’t know if I have ever seen a WNBA team as unlucky with
their depth as Indiana has been. While
the big story is that Caitlin Clark has missed most of this year due to injury
(she’s also struggled when she has played due to this), they also ended up
agreeing to a buyout of DeWanna Bonner, who was expected to be a huge free
agent depth piece, and they lost Aari McDonald, Sydney Colson, and Sophie
Cunningham for the season due to different injuries. That said, they are still in the playoff mix
due to the dominance of Kelsey Mitchell and Aaliyah Boston, who are both having
exceptional seasons while they also have developed great chemistry (while not
having Clark is a big loss for them, I’m not sure they would have developed
this level of chemistry with Clark there since it has allowed Mitchell to have
the ball in her hands more). They also play
at a very high pace, which has allowed their offense to shine more (while they
have an average defense, their offense has been impressive). In general, I really do like the lineup they
have used lately that includes Mitchell, Boston, Natasha Howard, Lexie Hull,
and Odyssey Sims, as it has been reliable on both ends. I think there are some issues to watch out for
in the playoffs, with the most notable being how Clark will fit. While Clark is their best player, she is very
ball dominant, which is difficult to fit immediately. While some might say that she is a great
shooter which can allow her to succeed off the ball, last season was the first
season she was playing with another star player (while some would site the fact
that Kate Martin was drafted, she is a low-maintenance off-ball shooter on
offense); this is a total culture shock if she comes back in the playoffs. Something else to note is that their net
rating would indicate a better record, and a big part of that is due to their
struggles in close games (they are 2-7 in games decided by 5 points or fewer). While some would say that the lack of Clark
is the reason for this, I think blame also lays with Stephanie White, who has
struggled with coaching decisions, especially with offensive plays, matchups,
and minute distribution/substitutions. I
have often been negative regarding her away from my writing (in the season she
won Coach of the Year with Connecticut due to changing the offense with Brionna
Jones by playing a fast pace offense with Alyssa Thomas at the point, I thought
she was slow to do this, especially since I thought they should have been
playing that way in the beginning of the season). Of course, the biggest question will be who
they have that can even play by the end of the season.
What to watch:
The chemistry of Kelsey Mitchell and Aaliyah Boston, how Caitlin Clark
can fit with the lineup if healthy, Stephanie White’s decision making, who is
available by the end of the season
Los
Angeles Sparks (19-20)
After 20 games, it seemed like L.A. was a total flop this
season, as they were 6-14 and looked like they were toast, especially since
they looked like a turnstile on defense.
Suddenly, they turned it around and went 13-6 since while being clearly
in a fight for the final playoff spot. I
think the biggest thing is that they figured out their identity of being a fast-paced
offensive team while not being quite as bad defensively. They play at the league’s fastest pace, and
while they turn the ball over a ton, they also are the most efficient team from
the field from 2 (albeit at a lower sample size than almost every other team)
and are one of the best teams from deep.
This makes sense to exploit given their roster, which includes Kelsey
Plum, an elite offensive talent, Dearica Hamby, an elite finisher and brilliant
basketball mind, Azura Stevens, who has been shooting and finishing at an elite
clip, and Rickea Jackson, an aggressive young scorer who is talented yet still
has some growing. The playmaking of
Kelsey Plum and Julie Allemand has also been something to marvel at, as both
have been great at developing the plays on the ball. Their defense hasn’t been as horrible as it
was to start the season, which ironically has coincided with the return of
Cameron Brink, despite the fact that she has not been good so far; their
defense has still not been good, but it’s not a bottom-3 in the league at least
(it’s 10th out of 13 teams now, but that’s beside the point). Even if they miss the playoffs, Jackson is an
awesome player to have; even while she has her inconsistencies and is
incredibly chaotic, she is talented and a blast to watch.
What to watch:
Their amazing offense, if their defense can improve, the chaotic play of
Rickea Jackson
Seattle
Storm (22-20)
At the end of July, Seattle was 16-11 and all was looking
good despite their apparent lack in confidence in Ezi Magbegor (I never
understood this consistent lack of confidence they have had in her over the
last few seasons, especially since she is an elite defender). After they dropped two winnable games to
start August, they appeared to get desperate and make a trade for Brittney
Sykes, a fit I questioned offensively.
They didn’t win again until August 15th and had dropped to 16-17
before going 6-3 after, so I’m not sure what this team is anymore (while they
beat Minnesota and Atlanta, they also had wins against Dallas, Washington, and
2 against Chicago). Their stars are a
lot of fun to watch, as they have Nneka Ogwumike (one of the most underrated
superstars who can score efficiently from anywhere and defend at a high level),
Skylar Diggins (a competitive guard who is an aggressive scorer and playmaker while
also being a better defender), and Gabby Williams (one of the best perimeter
defenders in the game who is a sneaky good playmaker). On top of that, Sykes and Magbegor have been
amazing fits on defense, where this team has been elite, but the offense has
been inconsistent. I’m not sure how they
have managed to do this, but they take a ton of 2’s yet don’t make it to the
line, making them slightly below average in points per game (as well as
offensive rating) despite playing at a fast pace, taking a ton of shots, and
rarely turning the ball over. I think
there will be some questions about how the chemistry pans out in the playoffs,
which I am not bullish about for them to make a run. Even if this team ends up being a short
playoff run, which I imagine would be viewed negatively by the team, there is
one massive positive from the season:
rookie Dominique Malonga has looked so good over the last couple weeks
and looks like she could be an exciting piece to build around at the age of 19.
What to watch:
Chemistry, lineups, defense, the exciting nature of their stars’ games
Just
eliminated, but put up a great fight
Washington
Mystics (16-25)
While they ultimately were eliminated from the playoffs and
have been atrocious since the Brittney Sykes trade, this season has to be
considered a huge success. Going into
the season, I had them finishing last and said that I expected them to be
comically bad alongside Connecticut; the fact that they were competing for a
playoff spot late in the season shows that they easily exceeded my
expectations. On top of that, their two first-round
rookies, Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen have both looked amazing already. While I was low on both of them at the time
and questioned their upside, both have already played better than I expected
they ever would while also demonstrating there is still room for them to
grow. I think the pairing of the two of
them and Shakira Austin is a great core to build around. I also have been impressed with the job that
Sydney Johnson has done. I believe there
have been glimpses of what they can do on both ends, especially defensively,
though there is still growth that needs to be done. I don’t know who will be with the team going
forward, but they have a nice core for the future. At this point, they should just see how well
the remaining of their young players play and get them touches, though I expect
they will still give a lot of minutes to their veterans they have on their team
just because they have so far as well.
What to watch:
Growth from their young players, who plays down the stretch, likely a
lot of losing
Eliminated
a while ago
Chicago
Sky (9-30)
It is evident if you were to look back at my preseason
predictions that Chicago was expected to have a much better season; it was bad
when they were 7-13, but I wasn’t expecting them to go 2-17 since. They have the worst offensive rating and net
rating while also having the second worst defensive rating. They are atrocious at scoring from everywhere
on the court, turn the ball over a ton, get blocked a lot, rarely get fouled, and
allow a horrible percentage from deep; the only thing they are great at is
rebounding. It looked like it was going
to be bad news when Courtney Vandersloot was out for the season after 7 games,
but it got even worse when Angel Reese missed 3 weeks due to an injury. They traded for Ariel Atkins likely because they
expected to be competitive, but while she’s been solid, she isn’t the type of
player who would make a bad team good, so she’s been badly miscast with this
team. Several of their bench players
have either had worse years or have struggled in general, as the lone bright
spots of their supporting cast have been Rachel Banham (who is 31 and shouldn’t
be viewed as a cornerstone of a team that isn’t ready to compete) and Michaela
Onyenwere (who is 25, but is an unrestricted free agent this year). The true bright spots have been that Angel
Reese and Kamila Cardosa have both improved significantly while looking like
they can play together and be pillars for the team. They have tried Reese with the ball in her
hands more (which I think is a good idea because she has a high basketball IQ
and is better at scoring in the paint when she is more of a downhill driver),
and she has found some success in the role while still being a great rebounder,
as she has been much more efficient from the field while also improving as a
playmaker; she is still turns the ball over a lot, but I think that is partially
because she is aggressive with her driving.
The most important thing for Cardosa is that she looks more comfortable;
I felt like she was often hesitant and looked lost in her rookie year, but she
has been more aggressive while the season has gone on while also developing some
nice chemistry alongside Reese. I think
it’s possible they can use these two as building blocks, but the issue is that
they traded their first round pick in 2026 to trade up for Reese and then gave
up a 2027 swap to get Atkins.
What to watch: The
Reese-Cardosa pairing, if they can figure out anything over their last few
games
Connecticut
Sun (10-30)
I originally had Connecticut in their own tier because they were
so much worse than everyone; they were 3-20 and had easily the worst offense
and defense in the league. Since then,
they have gone 7-10 and no longer have the worst record (Dallas does), offense
(Chicago does), defense (Dallas does), or net rating (Chicago does). I wrote a previous post about just how bad
they were because it has been unbelievable, but they started to turn it around
so I had to change the tone of my post. What
happened during this stretch? The most
obvious thing is that two of their key young players, rookies Leïla Lacan and
Saniya Rivers, have been legitimately very good in this stretch (not even just good
for rookies, but they’ve looked like good starters). The other obvious aspect is the fact that
Tina Charles, who was okay all season prior to this stretch, has been fantastic
and is playing the best basketball during this stretch since she was in
Washington in 2021. I think another
important aspect is that coach Rachid Meziane, who struggled mightily during
the 3-20 stretch, has become more comfortable and confident while also clearly
having buy-in from the team, which is excellent news for the future. While Marina Mabrey, who I thought could lead
the league in scoring this year, has struggled mightily with efficiency, there
are several young players who have shown glimpses of promise; while Lacan and
Rivers have shown star potential, I think that Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Aneesah
Morrow, and Aaliyah Edwards all have shown that they could find a role in the
WNBA. While some of their veterans who
had earned minutes likely held back the minutes for some of their players, Bria
Hartley’s season ending injury will likely open more minutes for Rivers and
Lacan. They don’t have their pick this
year, so it makes sense to keep seeing what they can do; if they win, that’s
great, since they now are showing things they can do things that work. Of course, the other thing to watch is just
how many fights this feisty Connecticut team gets in during the remainder of
the season…prior to Hartley’s injury, it wouldn’t have been irrational to have
predicted at least one a game.
What to watch:
Their shining young core, Rachid Meziane’s growing comfort, Tina Charles’
dominance, how many fights they get into
Dallas
Wings (9-32)
While I didn’t think Dallas would make the playoffs, they
have been rough, as they have a bad offense and a league-worst defense. The issue on defense is that they can’t
defend any shot, especially 3-pointers, which obviously makes it tough to do
anything. They started 1-11, and after
showing some promise in a 5-2 stretch, went 3-19. The biggest downside on offense has been Arike
Ogunbuwale having the worst season of her career before missing nearly the last
month due to injury. They made multiple trades
because players didn’t fit and waived other players who were expected to play a
bigger role, but they have some players who could play a role in the future. The most obvious positive is that Paige
Bueckers already looks like a star who can thrive as a top scorer and playmaker
on a team. They also have several
players who have shown glimpses, including Maddy Siegrist (who has looked more
like the scorer that was expected when she was drafted in 2023), Luisa
Geiseloder (who looks like an intriguing stretch big with defensive upside), Li
Yueru (another stretch big who has been more willing to let it fly this year),
JJ Quinerly (an aggressive scorer), Aziaha James (another aggressive scoring
guard who could be better than I predicted), Hayley Jones (who could be a secondary
ball-handler as a guard/wing), and the surprise emergence of 7-day contract
player Amy Okongwo (she has thrived offensively on 7-day contracts, especially
as a finisher). Dallas has continued to
give these young players as many minutes as possible, which I think is honestly
the right decision to develop. Of
course, the side-effect of that is that they will likely lose many games; as they
still have to face L.A. and Phoenix in their final two games, it’s worth
wondering how many points they will allow.
What to watch:
Paige Bueckers, the continued development of their youth, the continued
trainwreck of what their defense is
What do you think of these teams? Who are you excited for in the rest of the season and playoffs? Let me know in the comments!
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