2025-26 NBA Season Preview
After a fun WNBA season and a wild NBA offseason, the NBA season is back! I again have my season preview, which includes my predictions for standings, the Finals, awards, and my analysis. As a note, I did not predict All-Stars this year due to the new format of having a certain number of international players, and I keep losing track of who is eligible as international players with multiple passports.
Standings
East
1. New York Knicks
2. Cleveland Cavaliers
3. Orlando Magic
4. Atlanta Hawks
5. Milwaukee Bucks
6. Detroit Pistons
7. Boston Celtics
8. Philadelphia 76ers
9. Toronto Raptors
10. Chicago Bulls
11. Miami Heat
12. Indiana Pacers
13. Charlotte Hornets
14. Washington Wizards
15. Brooklyn Nets
West
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. Denver Nuggets
3. Houston Rockets
4. Los Angeles Clippers
5. Minnesota Timberwolves
6. Los Angeles Lakers
7. Golden State Warriors
8. San Antonio Spurs
9. Portland Trail Blazers
10. Dallas Mavericks
11. Memphis Grizzlies
12. Sacramento Kings
13. New Orleans Pelicans
14. Phoenix Suns
15. Utah Jazz
Finals
Prediction
I used to always predict the entire playoffs, but I find
that kind of pointless since we don’t know who will even make the playoffs, let
alone how each matchup will shape out.
That said, there are a few front runners in each conference. In the East, I currently think New York and
Cleveland are the front runners, though I am also high on Orlando and a little
less high on Atlanta. In the West, I
think Oklahoma City is the clear favorite with Denver being a close second,
followed by Houston, the Clippers, and Minnesota. That said, I still think OKC is going to be
clear frontrunner overall.
Prediction:
Oklahoma City beats New York, 4-1
Awards
I find awards to be the dumbest things to predict since
there are so many variables that can contribute to this, most notably the
65-game minimum to be eligible for them, but I’m still reluctantly making these
predictions because apparently that’s something that’s required with these
predictions.
MVP
1. Nikola Jokic, DEN
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL
4. Jalen Brunson, NYK
5. Luka Doncic, LAL
It took one of the best seasons from a guard for Jokic to
not win MVP, even while Jokic had an amazing season. I think the Jokic fatigue has worn off, which
will make Jokic the frontrunner. I think
SGA will have another elite season, which will make him a frontrunner given his
OKC’s likely dominance. Milwaukee will
likely bank on Antetokounmpo putting up comically amazing statistics, so he’ll
probably be a finalist. I expect Brunson
will get love due to an amazing season from him and New York being a top
team. While I don’t think that L.A. will
be amazing, there is recent precedent for a 6-seed or lower being near the top
of the MVP vote, as Stephen Curry was a top-3 finalist when Golden State was
the 8-seed a few years ago; I expect Luka will put up monster numbers, and he
already has been a popular choice with the voters. Other possibilities include Donovan Mitchell,
Trae Young, Kevin Durant, Anthony Edwards, Paolo Banchero, Victor Wembanyama, Jalen
Williams, Cade Cunningham, Amen Thompson, Stephen Curry, Jaylen Brown, and
James Harden.
Rookie of the Year
1. Cooper Flagg, DAL
2. Ace Bailey, UTA
3. Tre Johnson, WAS
Usually, the winner of this award is someone who either is a
key player on a competitive team or someone who has a high usage rate and puts
up big numbers. I don’t think anyone fulfills
the first one, and I’m not certain if anyone can be grouped in with the second
unless Utah gives Ace Bailey the loosest leash (I wouldn’t be shocked by
it). I still think Flagg will win
because a highly touted prospect ends up putting up notable numbers even if
there is a tough competition (some example of this includes LeBron James
beating Carmelo Anthony, Andrew Wiggins beating out Nikola Mirotic, Nerlens
Noel, and Elfrid Payton, and Victor Wembanyama getting winning unanimously
despite Chet Holmgren’s great rookie year).
I think there will be growing pains, but I think Flagg will be very good
for a team that is trying to win, which will allow Flagg to be the
favorite. I think Bailey will put up big
numbers and is going to be a clear contender.
I think the question for the last spot will come down to who gets the
minutes and opportunities, and I’m not sure who will, but Johnson has the easiest
path for minutes and scoring opportunities (I also think he is an impressive
scorer already). Some other
possibilities include Dylan Harper, VJ Edgecombe, Jeremiah Fears, Kon Knueppel,
and Egor Demin.
Defensive Player of the Year
1. Amen Thompson, HOU
2. Evan Mobley, CLE
3. Victor Wembanyama, SAS
There is always one award that I feel totally lost about,
and I think this will be the award this year; when creating a shortlist, I ended
up with 21 players as possible, which is obviously a bit high. I believe the best defender this season will
be Wembanyama, but the voters for some reason decide that this award also has
to be a team award, and I don’t think the Spurs will be a great defensive
squad. I went back and forth between the
three finalists I listed above and Ivica Zubac, but ultimately went with
Thompson for four reasons: his versatility,
the expectations for a great season, Houston likely being a good defensive
team, and…because that’s who felt right while writing it? I genuinely don’t know. I think Mobley will get votes, but I am skeptical
of his odds to win since there were a lot of people that felt like Mobley was a
disappointing winner last season (though I thought he deserved it and would
have been who I would have voted for if I had a vote). I’m also curious if we see a finalist who is
on a bad team in general, since there’s some great defenders who are on teams
that I think will miss the Play-In.
Besides the top 3 and Zubac, I also considered Mikal Bridges, Luguentz
Dort, Jaren Jackson, Ausar Thompson, Dyson Daniels, Bam Adebayo, Toumani
Camara, Chet Holmgren, Rudy Gobert, Derrick White, Alex Caruso, Herb Jones,
Jaden McDaniels, Jarrett Allen, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and OG Anunoby (I also
considered Jalen Suggs, but I’m uncertain he will reach the minimum games).
Sixth Man of the Year
1. De’Andre Hunter, CLE
2. Cason Wallace, OKC
3. Bobby Portis, MIL
Take my predictions for this award with a grain of salt, as I
have predicted players to win this award who ended up starting on several
occasions (fortunately, most of these came before I started this blog). Hunter could end up starting too many games,
but I think he will get a lot of nods due to his playing style that involves
scoring a lot of points. I think Wallace
or Anthony Black will be the best bench player, but the voters usually go with
a high-volume scorer instead. I think
Portis will end up scoring a ton due to the questions I have about Milwaukee’s
lineup, which will make him in consideration.
Some others I considered are Naz Reid, Anfernee Simons, John Collins,
Anthony Black, Miles McBride, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Tari Eason, Alex
Caruso, Donte DiVincenzo, P.J. Washington, Buddy Hield, and Keldon Johnson.
Most Improved Player
1. Amen Thompson, HOU
2. Chet Holmgren, OKC
3. Derrick White, BOS
While this award is one that I often don’t feel confidence
in, a frequent trend with this award is that the winner is either a player in
their third season (there are several voters who won’t vote for a player in
their second season, who often improve significantly from their first season,
but they justify it by voting for players in their third season for some
reason) or who suddenly have a big opportunity in their role. I think there are several players who could
win this, but the popular choice is Thompson, as he could be an All-Star this
year while also likely getting more opportunities as a playmaker and ball
handler with Fred VanVleet likely to miss the season. While I’m not sold on Chet Holmgren’s
candidacy since he had a nice season when healthy, I wouldn’t be surprised if
there are people who are focused on his offensive inconsistencies in the
playoffs. For the last spot, I was torn
between White and Andrew Nembhard, both of whom I think will have an increased
role. I think Boston will be better and
White will have a huge jump, but I think Nembhard will finish ahead of White if
Indiana is better than I expect. In
addition to the three finalists and Nembhard, I also considered Deni Avdija, Brandon
Miller, Myles Turner, Keyonte George, Shaedon Sharpe, Neemias Queta, Anthony
Black, Bilal Coulibaly, Isaiah Jackson, Kevin Porter Jr., and Benedict Mathurin.
Coach of the Year
1. Jamahl Mosley, ORL
2. Mike Brown, NYK
3. Chauncey Billups, POR
This one is always a silly one to project since the winner
of the award is usually the coach of the team that surprised the most people in
their standings, so the true answer for this is to ask me after the
season. I think Orlando will be amazing
this year and Mosley will continue to deserve the respect that he has gotten so
far, especially for the buy-in that he continues to get from his teams on the
defensive end. I think New York will be
a better regular season team this year in part due to their depth and Brown
being likely to play more their bench, so he will get a ton of credit. I was torn between Billups and Ime Udoka for
the last spot, but I think Portland will surprise a lot of teams by competing
for the playoffs; if some teams ahead of them falter and they end up making it
without the Play-In, he could win the award.
In addition to my top-3 and Udoka, I considered Quin Snyder, David
Adelman, Mark Daignault, Tyronn Lue, and Kenny Atkinson.
Executive of the Year
1. Rafael Stone, HOU
2. Jeff Weltman, ORL
3. Onsi Saleh, ATL
This award is voted on by other executives, but I still
think it would be fun to include here. I
think the four obvious choices are Jeff Weltman, Onsi Saleh, Rafael Stone, or Ben
Tenzer. I think Stone will have the edge
due to the Kevin Durant trade, especially if they are still a top-3 seed. Weltman could rise a bit in the rankings if
the Magic are better than the 3-seed, but he should get a lot of votes due to
the Desmond Bane trade. Atlanta’s
acquisitions of Nickeil Alexander-Walker and the Pelicans’ valuable first round
pick for next season will give Saleh some love.
The reason I am a little lower on Tenzer despite Denver’s amazing
awesome offseason is because he is currently the interim GM; if he becomes the
full-time GM, he will likely be higher on the list, whereas I think there will
be confusion on who to vote for if another executive fills the role.
All-NBA
1. Nikola Jokic, DEN
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL
4. Jalen Brunson, NYK
5. Luka Doncic, LAL
6. Donovan Mitchell, CLE
7. Trae Young, ATL
8. Anthony Edwards, MIN
9. Kevin Durant, HOU
10. Victor Wembanyama, SAS
11. Paolo Banchero, ORL
12. Cade Cunningham, DET
13. Amen Thompson, HOU
14. Jalen Williams, OKC
15. Stephen Curry, GSW
All-Defense
1. Amen Thompson, HOU
2. Evan Mobley, CLE
3. Victor Wembanyama, SAS
4. Ivica Zubac, LAC
5. Mikal Bridges, NYK
6. Luguentz Dort, OKC
7. Ausar Thompson, DET
8. Bam Adebayo, MIA
9. Jaren Jackson, MEM
10. Dyson Daniels, ATL
All-Rookie
1. Cooper Flagg, DAL
2. Ace Bailey, UTA
3. Tre Johnson, WAS
4. Dylan Harper, SAS
5. VJ Edgecombe, PHI
6. Jeremiah Fears, NOP
7. Konn Knueppel, CHO
8. Noa Essengue, CHI
9. Egor Demin, BRK
10. Cedric Coward, MEM
Analysis
This is my favorite part of these posts, as I go into a
paragraph long dive into each team while highlighting their players. I intentionally put this one at the bottom
because I know a lot of people see this much reading and run for cover (I get
it). I also included an X-Factor for
each team, which is a role player who could be very important for this
team. In the past, I have done ceilings
and floors for each team; I didn’t do that in this post, though I alluded to it
in my analysis for each team.
East
New York Knicks
After a year where they stumbled their way to the Conference
Finals (I know Knicks fans will be furious about that characterization, but
they were bad against the Pistons and only played well in two games against the
Celtics before being clearly outmatched by the Pacers), I think it is safe to
say that the Knicks got better. In a
year where we can expect a few competitive teams to be worse, New York is
starting healthy and is likely deep enough to withstand any injuries (unless it
is to one of their stars, but no teams can withstand that). Even though they have a deeper team and a new
coach (I think coach Mike Brown will be a better fit for this team than Tom
Thibodeau was, though he had a successful tenure), they still do have 7 of
their top players from last year’s playoff run are back. Jalen Brunson is a superstar on offense who
is a freakishly efficient shooter and scorer while also being a great playmaker
who is comfortable with the ball in his hands for large stretches of the game. While he gets a ton of hate over his playing
style and what he can’t do, Karl-Anthony Towns is an elite offensive talent and
shooter who can score from everywhere on the floor (I’ve wondered if he could
ever reach 50/40/90) and can totally change the spacing of the offense, though
he is a poor paint defender. In his
first full year in New York, OG Anunoby proved that he has a more complete
offensive game in the right situation than he ever was able to demonstrate in
Toronto, which is a great pairing to go with his high-level versatile
defense. They also have Mikel Bridges
(an elite 3-and-D plus player who can do more on offense than shoot 3’s while
also being a versatile defender), Josh Hart (an excellent defender and
rebounder at the wing who is an underrated playmaker), Mitchell Robinson (an
excellent rim protector and finisher, though he is often injured), Miles
McBride (a skilled shooter and aggressive scorer who is a nice bench piece),
and Guerschon Yabusele (a skilled and athletic smaller big who was amazing in
his comeback to the NBA). Beyond that,
they have several options about who makes the roster and gets playing time, as
they can choose veterans (such as Jordan Clarkson, Landry Shamet, Alex Len,
Garrison Matthews, and Matt Ryan) or young players (such as Tyler Kolek, Ariel
Hukporti, and Pacome Dadiet). I think
the combination of top-level talent, a better coach for the team, and improved
depth will make them a force all season.
X-Factor: As
amazing of a fit as Karl-Anthony Towns has been with New York, especially on
offense, it has become clear how much their defense suffers when he is at
center. Even though they had three great
defenders surrounding him in Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Josh Hart, he is a
poor rim protector, which hurt them significantly. One thing they are considering doing is
starting Mitchell Robinson to utilize a 2-big lineup, which would be a good fit
due to Robinson’s great rim protection; while some would worry about the
shooting, it’s not like Hart is a consistent shooter, so it’s not the worst
drop-off. The biggest question is
whether Robinson is healthy; he played fewer than 60 games each of the last 3
seasons while only playing 17 games last year.
They really need his defense because there really isn’t another option
to be a starting-level rim protector.
Cleveland Cavaliers
After a successful regular season, I expect they will win a
ton of games again, though they are dealing with injuries already, as Darius
Garland and Max Strus will both likely miss the start of the season. Their top star out of their four is still
Donovon Mitchell, who is an elite offensive talent who was more than willing to
take a lesser role offensively, which allowed his defense to be better. The biggest aspect of their continued growth
is the improvement of Evan Mobley, who was the Defensive Player of the Year
last season and improved his offensive game significantly, which allowed for a
lot more versatility as he improved as a shooter and passer. While Garland will likely miss the start of
the season due to injury, he is a talented offensive player who fits so well
alongside Mitchell since he is great both on and off the ball while seemingly
happy to play either role for a winning team.
The underrated star on this team is Jarrett Allen, who is often
overlooked because he isn’t a high-volume scorer, but he is an excellent
defender, finisher, and rebounder who is happy to thrive in the role that he is
in. Some of their other key players
include De’Andre Hunter (an impressively efficient high-volume scorer who has
thrived off the bench), Max Strus (a talented off-ball shooter whose skill and
IQ have made him a great fit in the starting lineup), Lonzo Ball (an
oft-injured point guard who has become an excellent shooter and defender), and
a pair of elite shooters in Sam Merrill and Dean Wade. Some other players who could play a role
include Larry Nance Jr., Craig Porter Jr., Thomas Bryant, Jaylon Tyson, and
Tyrese Proctor. Even while there are
going to be continued questions about fit and health, I still think this team
will rack up a lot of wins in the regular season while challenging for a
championship run.
X-Factor: Dean
Wade has had such an unlikely path to becoming a valuable role player. When he graduated from Kansas State, it
appeared very unlikely that he would be drafted due to concerns about his
athleticism, though his shot looked nice at his size. While he played well on a 2-way contract
offensively, I was a little surprised that he ended up getting a role after
signing a standard NBA contract. Each
season, he improved defensively to the point where he is serviceable on that
end while remaining a good shooter at 6’9.
While he has dealt with injuries, he is such a nice player to have who
can play either forward position and fits as a starter or off the bench. He is so smart about where to be on the
court, which helps out so much.
Orlando Magic
Expecting a big jump from Orlando might seem like a lot, but
I believe they’ll be better than they were two seasons ago, when they were the
5-seed. They were greatly hampered by
injuries last year, but I’m not worried about this since two largely healthy
stars each getting oblique injuries feels like a bit of a fluke. Paolo Banchero has proven that he is a star,
as he is a great scorer who also has some nice rebounding and playmaking chops,
but he needs to shoot better from 3 than he did last year. Franz Wagner has also emerged as a star who
can do a lot on the court, especially as a passer and finisher, though his shot
has totally evaporated over the last couple seasons and needs to improve
significantly to help this offense. I
think the biggest help is the acquisition of Desmond Bane, whose shooting,
efficient scoring, off-ball movement, and playmaking will make him an amazing
fit; his health will be something to watch, as he has dealt with injuries over
the past 3 seasons. They also have Jalen
Suggs (an elite defender who has improved significantly offensively, though he
is still nursing an injury), Wendall Carter (a consistent defender and finisher
who should rebound from a horrible year from 3), Tyus Jones (a reliable and
consistent point guard due to his playmaking and shooting), Jonathan Isaac (an
elite defender who is one of the best in the game, though he is usually on a
minutes restriction due to his awful injury history), Anthony Black (a massive
point guard who is already an elite defender and is improving as a playmaker
and offensive player), Mo Wagner (a great defender and finisher who can also
stretch the floor a bit), Goga Bitadze (an amazing defender and finisher who is
a great traditional big), Tristan Da Silva (a versatile forward with a lot of
skills), and Jase Richardson (a rookie who has a high IQ and nice jumper). I’m not sure how Orlando did it, but they
managed to get better at the top of their lineup and deeper as well; they had
an amazing offseason, which I believe will pan out. I think it’s entirely possible that they end
up as the 1-seed in the East, especially if New York and Cleveland aren’t as
worried about the regular season.
X-Factor:
After losing in the playoffs to Cleveland in 2024, Paolo Banchero
emphasized the need for a better playmaker with this offense. They didn’t acquire one that offseason, and
while Suggs is a good playmaker, I love what he does off the ball, so acquiring
another playmaker seemed like a good decision, especially with Suggs nursing an
injury. While most of the attention has
been rightfully on the acquisition of Desmond Bane, they also signed Tyus
Jones, who will likely be their backup point guard. Jones was the best backup point guard in the
league with Memphis since he is an excellent playmaker who is a natural at
controlling the game. In the last few
seasons, he has improved his shooting significantly, which has allowed his
offensive game to advance significantly since he’s only 6’1. I think he will be an amazing fit with
Orlando while being surrounded by great defenders and improved spacing; I
genuinely believe he is the playmaker that Banchero was calling for.
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta is a popular team to finish high, and while they
were a Play-In team last year, it feels like they could make the jump since
their team makes so much sense. While
there’s a lot to gripe about with his shot selection (I have often complained
about that) and defense (the entire world complains about that), he is an elite
playmaker and great scorer who could be a top 2- or 3-player on a competitive
team; it is also worth noting that he has made an effort to be better on
defense and off the ball, though I doubt he’ll ever be a league average
defender. When healthy, Jalen Johnson
has emerged as a star over the last two seasons, and especially has improved as
a playmaker, to pair with his great finishing, rebounding, and defense; the
issue is that he has played just 92 games over the last two seasons due to
unrelated injuries. They also have Dyson
Daniels (an elite defender with massive size who has improved immensely on offense),
Kristaps Porzingis (a prolific offense talent and rim protector, though he is
often injured and has only reached 65 games once since the 2017-18 season), Zaccharie
Risacher (a young 2-way player who looks like he will be a high-level starter
already), Onyeka Okongwu (a skilled undersized center who is improving as a
passer and shooter), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (a skilled combo guard who is a
good shooter, finisher, playmaker, and defender), Luke Kennard (an elite
shooter, though his confidence wanes at times), and Vit Krejci (a massive point
guard who is a strong finisher); we’ll also see what Mouhamed Gueye and Asa
Newell can do. It’s possible that
they’re not this good this year, but I think they have the potential to win a
bunch this year.
X-Factor: In
their first few seasons together, Trae Young and Kevin Huerter appeared to fit
nicely offensively due to Huerter’s shooting ability off the ball, though
Huerter’s statements with some podcasts (most notably Zach Lowe’s podcast)
seemed to imply that he wanted the ball a little more than he did alongside
Young. What if you substitute this with
a player who doesn’t appear to be bothered when he doesn’t have the ball in his
hands a ton? Insert Luke Kennard, who is
an elite shooter and great off-ball player who has never appeared to be mad if
he wasn’t initiating the offense more.
The only caveat with him is that he goes through stretches where he
appears to doubt his ability, which stinks to watch since he is one of the best
off-ball shooters in the game. That
said, he should get better looks than he’s ever seen given Young’s playmaking
and command, as well as the spacing that Atlanta could provide this year.
Milwaukee Bucks
I have no idea what to expect from Milwaukee; I have them 5th
in the East because they have Giannis Antetokounmpo and several other teams in
the East will likely be worse, but I also think this team got a lot worse. They still do have Antetokounmpo, who is one
of the best players in the league and is in his prime, though he already
appears to be a little disgruntled with the direction of the team (I can’t say
I blame him; I have no idea what this team is doing); I wouldn’t be shocked if
he puts up comical video game type numbers without any true offensive threats
around him. They made a risky move by
acquiring Myles Turner after waiving and stretching Damian Lillard to do so,
but he is an amazing shooter, finisher, and rim protecter; the issue is that
Turner will be badly miscast in his role, as he is likely a third or fourth
best player on a contending team, whereas he is the second-best player on this
team. They also have Bobby Portis (an
awesome backup big who can score from anywhere on the court and rebound at a
high level), Kyle Kuzma (a skilled player, though he always seemed miserable in
a complimentary role on a winning team), Gary Trent Jr. (an excellent shooter
who has been a passable team defender with the right lineup around him),
Taurean Prince (a nice shooter, though the rest of his game is a bit empty),
Kevin Porter Jr. (a talented scorer, shooter, and athlete with playmaking
potential, though he has also had a ton of off-court and legal issues), Andre
Jackson Jr. (a solid defender who hasn’t showcased his tools on offense), A.J.
Green (an elite shooting wing), Cole Anthony (a competitive backup guard with a
solid jumper), Ryan Rollins (a great shooter with some defensive upside), and
Gary Harris (a solid shooter and smart defender, though he’s likely best suited
for a smaller role). I think it will be
a lot easier for this team to fall below this spot, though I doubt that they’ll
miss the playoffs as long as Antetokounmpo is with the team.
X-Factor: From
a skillset standpoint, Kyle Kuzma has all the tools you would want in a role
player: he has nice size, is a good athlete, is a great finisher, has an okay
shot, has shown glimpses of passing ability, and doesn’t turn the ball over a
ton for his usage rate. The issue is
that he has never appeared content in a situation where he isn’t a star player;
on top of that, he doesn’t try defensively, has horrible shot selection, tries
to resist passing in favor of shooting, isn’t competitive for rebounds, and
hasn’t improved on his game that much ever since coming into the NBA back in
the 2017-18 season. He only appeared to
be happy when he’s starring on a team, but this only happens when he’s on a
terrible team that is out of contention within a month of the season. Now that he’s 30, will Kyle Kuzma ever change
while he’s still in his prime? This is
what will raise Milwaukee’s ceiling; if he makes winning plays, he could be a top
3 player on this team and they will easily secure a playoff spot. However, I expect they’ll be stuck with him
on the roster and are unable to trade him, leading him to be the clubhouse
cancer that he was in Washington.
Detroit Pistons
I’m a little torn on Detroit; I think they could be a top 5
team, but I also feel like they’re slightly worse this year due to some of
their key role players being replaced by either players who are worse or worse
fits; on top of that, Jaden Ivy’s injury isn’t going to help. That said, I think they’ll make the playoffs
while likely doing so without going through the Play-In, so this might be their
floor. Unless one of their young stars breaks
out, Cade Cunningham is their lone star, but he is a superstar after having an
All-NBA season; he is a great scorer and playmaker, though he still turns the
ball over a lot and could improve a little more on defense if Detroit finds the
right fit of ball handlers around him.
They also have Jaden Ivy (a talented combo guard on offense who was
limited to 30 games due to injury), Jalen Duren (a strong finishing and
rebounding big who has moments where he isn’t the most focused), Tobias Harris
(a veteran forward who is a good shooter from deep and the midrange and can create
his own looks), Ausar Thompson (an elite defender and athlete who is a bad
shooter but a better finisher than I projected he would be), Caris LeVert (an
aggressive scorer who was more efficient than ever last season), Duncan
Robinson (a nice shooting wing who appears to have regained his confidence
while improving his driving ability), Isaiah Stewart (a competitive big who is
a versatile scorer and has a mean streak), Ron Holland (a competitive defender
with a feisty edge), and Marcus Sasser (a score-first backup point guard who is
efficient from anywhere on the court). I
think this team is set up for the future, but I think them finishing higher
will take a couple of their young players improving their game.
X-Factor:
While so many people questioned the Ron Holland draft selection, I loved
it because of his size, point forward ability, defensive upside, and
competitiveness. Even with all of that,
I was stunned by just how well he fit, especially as a defender and in
transition. There were many Detroit
players who had a bit of a mean streak in them last year, which made Holland,
who is insanely competitive, fit right in.
There are still issues with his offense in the half court, as he is a
poor shooter. The good news for Detroit
is that he is a smart cutter and off-ball mover for his age, so they can do a
lot with that. The bad news is that
Ausar Thompson is also a bad shooter, so there are limitations to how much they
can play the two together. There is a
lot of work to be done if he wants to have a bigger role than a bench effort
guy, but I think he can contribute a ton, especially if they use him as a 4 in
small ball lineups (there are reports that they have interest in trying this).
Boston Celtics
As soon as Jayson Tatum tore his Achilles, it became clear
that this year would be a year where they weren’t necessarily competing for a
championship. That said, I have no idea
what to expect, since they have some amazing top-end talent, yet are either
unproven or underwhelming in depth. They
do have Jaylen Brown, who is still a star player who is a natural scorer
(albeit at a worse efficiency last season) and good wing defender; if they’re a
top 5 team, Brown could find himself in the MVP race. Over the last two seasons, Derrick White has
been in All-Star consideration due to his shooting, defense, finishing,
playmaking, and versatility, though he has never been selected; if Boston
finisher higher than this, I would expect that White will make the All-Star
team. After that, this team really has
an odd collection of players, including Payton Pritchard (the reigning Sixth
Man of the Year who is a talented shooter and ball handler while also a
competitive defender and rebounder), Anfernee Simons (an excellent shooter and
scorer who is an underrated passer, albeit at the expense of defense), Sam
Hauser (an elite shooter who can hold his own defensively due to his size),
Chris Boucher (an athletic big who can shoot, finish, and defend in spurts),
Neemias Queta (a good finisher and solid defender who thrived as the third
big), and Xavier Tillman (a solid third string center). It’s also possible that Jordan Walsh, Baylor
Scheierman, and Hugo Gonzalez end up playing a role. I don’t think their ceiling is particularly
high, but I still think that they are a playoff team.
X-Factor: During
the last two seasons, Boston had amazing depth with their bigs, but now they
lost Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, and Luke Kornet. Now, their remaining bigs include Chris
Boucher, who is better suited as an athletic 4, Xavier Tillman, who is best
suited as a third string, and Luka Garza, who shouldn’t play a lot of
minutes…which leaves Neemias Queta, who is the best player of the bunch. He’s not a star, but he is good at what he
can do. He is a skilled finisher and
screener who is also a good paint defender.
I think he can at least get the job done as a start in 20 MPG,
especially after he thrived in EuroBasket.
Philadelphia 76ers
Look, I don’t know what to do with this team. If they’re healthy, they could finish near
the top of the East, but I don’t think they can ever be reliably healthy; on
the other hand, they could finish last if they are as injured as last year, but
I don’t think things will be quite that bad.
Their success starts with their superstar Joel Embiid, who is one of the
best players in the game when healthy, but he is never healthy; he only played
58 games over the last two seasons and already is reportedly dealing with knee
injuries already, so don’t be surprised if they pace his minutes. Tyrese Maxey has become the second-best
player on this team, and while he was always fun due to his speed, athleticism,
shooting, and scoring creativity, his improved playmaking has made him a force
on offense. While Embiid’s health has
made his contract be one of the worst in the game, Paul George’s huge contract
has been a total flop; while he likely won’t play at the level he did in his
prime (he is 35), they have to hope he can be a more efficient scorer, better
defender, and healthier. They have an
intriguing bench, as they have Jared McCain (a prolific off-ball scorer and
shooter, though he is still dealing with injuries and will likely miss time),
VJ Edgecombe (an athletic and talented rookie guard who will probably have more
success with NBA spacing), Quentin Grimes (a great shooter and solid defender
who also showcased some skills as a finisher and ball handler), Kelly Oubre (an
athletic and aggressive scoring forward who has found more consistency in
Philly), and Justin Edwards (an intriguing young scorer with some upside due to
his athleticism and shooting). They can
also trot out Trendon Watford, Adem Bona, Lonnie Walker IV, Andre Drummond,
Kyle Lowry, and Eric Gordon, depending on who makes the team out of them. I literally only put them here because I have
no idea what to do with this team; I wouldn’t be shocked if they fall off,
especially if the team struggles with injuries again.
X-Factor: I
have always been fascinated by Kelly Oubre’s career, which was evident when I
wrote a post about the wild ride of his career that has been a comedy of errors
(look back at that post if you want to relive the legendary trade that got
called off because Phoenix and Memphis were talking about two different players
with the last name Brooks). In Oubre’s
first season in Philly, he found consistency in his life, as he was thriving in
his role while playing well, though his shot was a bit streaky while dealing
with an injury; he also was playing the best defense he had in his career. While the defense and shooting were both
worse last year, I think part of that was due to how much of a nightmare the
season was for Philly. I think he can
have consistent success off the bench for this team, especially alongside some
great athletes.
Toronto Raptors
Toronto is another team that I’m not sure what to make of
it; I could see it working very well, especially if their players buy in on
defense and defensive versatility, but the similar playing styles of several
players on this team will likely make that end of the court a difficult one to
watch. I also think there will be
concerns with injuries, as I don’t believe anybody on this lineup reached 70
games last season. Scottie Barnes is
still their best player and is quite the talent, as he has improved is game to
the point where he can do almost everything; the catch is that his shooting is
not that good and his finishing isn’t the most consistent for his size and
athleticism, and I fear that the inconsistent spacing of this team will not
help. I am curious to see how Brandon
Ingram fits, as he took so many 3’s last year in his limited sample size (he
only played 18 games) and has developed into a serviceable playmaker, but he
still takes so many midrange shots (which could cause some issues stylistically
with Barnes) and has never been a good defender; I think the defense can be
resolved by being in an environment where defense is treated as a priority,
which might be true in Toronto (I’m not sure anymore with this team). They also have Immanuel Quickley (an
aggressive scorer and solid playmaker who is a good shooter but doesn’t have
the best shot selection), Jakob Poeltl (an awesome center who is a great
defender, screener, and finisher), RJ Barrett (a high-scoring wing who doesn’t
have the best shot selection, though he is an improving shooter), Gradey Dick
(a great shooter whose jumper hasn’t been elite due to spacing), Ochai Agbaji (a
3-and-D wing who is coming off his best season), and some combination of
rookies and second year players in Ja’Kobe Walter, Jamal Shead, Jonathan Mogbo,
Collin Murray-Boyles, and Jamison Battle.
While I am not high on their upside, I think they should make the
Play-In due to their defensive upside.
X-Factor:
Toronto pulled off a bit of a heist when they acquired Ochai Agbaji in 2024
since Agbaji, who showed some promise as a 3-and-D wing in his rookie year and
was considered off-limits from trades prior to that season, was having a bad
season. Last year, he had easily his
best year, as he already looks like a promising defender and shooter. Toronto has favored length and versatility
over the last few seasons, and I think Agbaji fits well as he is 6’5 with a
6’10 wingspan. If their starting lineup ends
up being a bit clunky, Agbaji and Gradey Dick make the most sense to give more
minutes due to their shooting, but Agbaji has a defensive versatility and
ability that Dick doesn’t.
Chicago Bulls
If there’s one thing you can count on in the NBA, it is that
the Chicago Bulls will be trying to reach the Play-In, even though they are not
a good enough team to be a top 8 team and would be better off trying to rebuild
and get a top pick. While I’m not sure
if they have a player who will be a top 2 player on a competitive team at any
point, they do have some interesting younger players. Their top player will likely be Josh Giddey,
who played the best basketball of his career in the second half of last season,
as he was given more freedom to play in transition, which allowed him to
showcase his playmaking and downhill driving while also improving his shooting;
the defense is still a concern for him, though there will always be the benefit
of his size. Coby White has been an
excellent shooter and scorer over the last two seasons, and he appears to be a
great fit with Giddey due to his ability to thrive both on and off the ball. They
also have Nikola Vucevic (a strong offensive and rebounding center who is
coming off a great year from deep, though he’s 35 and a poor defender), Matas
Buzelis (a second year player who looks like he has a lot of upside in a lot of
areas), Ayo Dosunmu (a versatile combo guard who can do a lot on offense), Patrick
Williams (an inconsistent combo forward who has the skills to be a solid
player), Kevin Huerter (a good shooter and underrated cutter for a guard), Isaac
Okoro (a great defender who lacks confidence on offense), Noa Essengue (an
athletic rookie who is raw but has wild upside), Tre Jones (a steady backup
point guard who is a nice playmaker), Zach Collins (a backup big who is a solid
finisher) and Jalen Smith (a big with nice finishing ability and a streaky
jumper). I really don’t know what to
expect from this team long-term, but I think they’re still at least fighting
for the Play-In.
X-Factor:
Look, at this point, it’s safe to assume that Patrick Williams’ contract
will end up being bad deal, especially given the current restrictions in the
CBA. I was skeptical of him when he was
drafted since I didn’t think he was particularly good at anything at the time
of the draft, and while he has shot well and shown glimpses of a skillset, he
really hasn’t improved much and still looks like an unpolished player. The issue is that he is now 24 and is
entering his 6th year, which is especially glaring since he is also
coming off his worst season. Now that
Matas Buzelis has proven that he deserves more minutes and that Chicago
acxquired Isaac Okoro and Noa Essengue (as well as some guards they can play in
a smaller lineup), Chicago doesn’t need to keep playing him if he struggles; as
such, this could be a huge year for him to remain in the role that he has had
in Chicago.
Miami Heat
While I understand that there is optimism to think that
Miami could be better after a season where they were atrocious on offense
(especially considering that Bam Adebayo is coming off a tough season where he
looked a little lackadaisical on both ends), the truth is that they were still
bad on offense last year after the Jimmy Butler trade, and Tyler Herro likely
missing a month of the season is not going to help. While Adebayo is not the player who would be
the top player on a contending team due to his lack of offensive aggression (I
think he is perfect as the second best player on a contender), he is still an
amazing player who should be better this year; he is an elite defender and good
passing big, though another element to his game that he showcased last year is
an improved 3-pointer, which could really change his game. I know that Tyler Hero gets a lot of hate
because he is a poor defender and has struggled in the playoffs outside of his
rookie year in the Bubble, but he is a talented offensive player who is a great
shooter and scorer and is coming off his best season, especially with
efficiency and playmaking; hopefully he’s not out for too long with his current
injury. They also have Norman Powell (an
aggressive scoring wing who is incredibly efficient and rarely turns the ball
over), Andrew Wiggins (an aggressive wing who has struggled in the last couple
seasons, but appeared to rediscover what made him crucial to Golden State’s
last championship later in the season), Kel’el Ware (a young big who had his
inconsistencies last season, but already looks like a good defender while
showing offensive upside), Nikola Jovic (a forward who has become a reliable
defender and efficient scorer/shooter), Jaime Jaquez (a forward who is coming
off a tough second season, but has a high IQ on both ends and is a solid
defender), Davion Mitchell (a great perimeter defender who also shot very well
in Miami last year), Simone Fontecchio (a steady and versatile wing who is
coming off a tough season), Precious Achiuwa (a competitive backup big who is
willing to do the dirty work), Pelle Larsson (a young guard who showed glimpses
on both ends), and Kasparas Jakucionis (a big rookie guard who is raw but oozing
with potential). I think they’ll compete
for the Play-In, but I can’t get behind them being a top 7 or 8 team. If all else fails, they could always dust off
Terry Rozier to play, since nothing could go wrong with that…right?
X-Factor:
While I loved Kel’el Ware entering the 2024 draft (he was 10th
on my unofficial board), I questioned how he would fit alongside Bam Adebayo
and just how ready he was immediately. By
the end of the season, he was starting alongside Bam and already looked like an
NBA-level defender. While he had some
inconsistencies with his jumper and had some rookie mistakes (which is not
uncommon for players his age), he improved so drastically that I could see him
and Bam starting together in a big lineup if Miami chooses that for years to
come. The reason that I chose him as the
x-factor is not because of how good he looked, but because I’m curious about
how good he’ll become. Part of the
reason I was so high on him compared to others (I even had him higher than
Donavan Clingan, which seemed insane given how obsessed draft analysts were
with him) is because I think there is so much untapped potential, especially as
a shooter. The jumper is still streaky, but
I’m excited to see if he improves this season.
Indiana Pacers
After making the NBA Finals last year and putting up a good
run for their money, I am skeptical about the success of this year’s team given
injuries to Tyrese Haliburton (likely to miss the season) and T.J. McConnell
(likely to miss at least a month) and the departure of Myles Turner. I wouldn’t be shocked if they finished higher
than this (such as in the Play-In), but their ceiling is likely capped low with
no Haliburton and weak center depth. This
year will be a year where Pascal Siakam needs to just how amazing he is, as he
is a great finisher, solid shooter, is steady with the ball in his hands, is an
underrated defender, and is so smart with cutting; while he proved that he
could be the top player on a playoff team during a couple seasons in Toronto, I
don’t know if this Pacers team is quite as good as those Toronto teams. They also have Andrew Nembhard (a solid combo
guard who will have the ball in his hands a lot more this year), Aaron Nesmith
(a terrific athlete who has developed into a reliable 3-and-D player pretty
quickly into his career), Benedict Mathurin (an aggressive scorer who will
likely get a lot more looks this year), Obi Toppin (an elite finisher and good
shooter who has improved enough to thrive as a small ball 5), T.J. McConnell (a
great backup guard who is great at pushing the pace and will be welcomed
immediately upon being healthy), Ben Sheppard (a steady wing who has shown
3-and-D potential), Jarace Walker (a forward who has been a good shooter and
defender while showcasing an interesting skillset), Isaiah Jackson (an
interesting rim-running and rim-protecting big coming off an injury), James
Wiseman (a big who has shown glimpses, though he is already 25), Jay Huff (a
nice shooting big), Tony Bradley (a nice option as a third big), and Johnny
Furphy (a young wing who a ton of experts and analysts love). While this year could be rough, the big focus
should be on seeing who makes sense once Haliburton gets back; if Haliburton is
as good as he was prior to his injury and they have at least one player who
proved to be right for the team in his absence (especially if it is a big),
they will be ready to compete again as soon as next season.
X-Factor: With
Myles Turner now in Milwaukee, this team’s center rotation is a little weak;
while I would expect Obi Toppin and Jarace Walker will find time in small ball
lineups, both are 6’8, which is undersized for the center position. Their other options include Jay Huff (who is
a good shooter, but maybe not suited to play a ton of minutes), Tony Bradley (who
is likely best suited as a third string big), James Wiseman returning from an
injury (while there’s some upside, he is still really raw for a 24-year-old),
and Isaiah Jackson, who I would be interested in favoring. While he is still a little raw, fouls a ton,
and only played 5 games last year due to an Achilles injury, he has proven to
be a good paint defender and rim protector, which is also what Turner is best
at defensively. He also improved as a
finisher at the rim, making me think that he could be a rim-running big who
thrives in the pick-and-roll. If he
plays well in this role, I think he would be an awesome fit alongside
Haliburton when he returns, potentially giving them a center for the future.
Charlotte Hornets
This team just outright confuses me; I’m not sure how any of
the talent makes sense, I don’t know which players on guaranteed contracts will
wind up making the team, and I just don’t know what their floor or ceiling
is. All the questions start with their
star, LaMelo Ball, who is an exciting player, good shooter, skilled passer, and
has nice size, but he doesn’t play defense, has horrible shot selection,
doesn’t make winning plays, and has only played 55 or more games once in his
5-year career (back in the 2021-22 season, when he played 75); the problem is
that nobody would want to trade for him at his current contract, so even if
they decide he’s not the star of the future, they’re stuck. Their other potential star is Brandon Miller,
who has shown glimpses of what he can be as a scoring wing and defender, though
he was limited to just 27 games last season due to injury. They also have Miles Bridges (a high-volume
scorer who has a streaky shot and doesn’t play a lot of defense), Collin Sexton
(a high level scoring guard who is also very efficient), Kon Knueppel (an elite
shooting rookie who a lot of scouts were excited about), Josh Green (a reliable
low-maintenance 3-and-D wing), Grant Williams (a feisty sharpshooting
undersized backup 4), Tidjane Salaün (an athletic young forward who had an
inconsistent rookie year), Tre Mann (a good shooter and solid playmaker who
fits the role of backup point guard), and Liam McNeeley (a rookie who had a
tough year at UConn being the primary scorer, though he should be more
successful in a supporting role with better spacing in the NBA). I have no idea who they’ll play at center,
though I figure either Moussa Diabate, Ryan Kalkbrenner, or Mason Plumlee will
get at least some minutes; maybe we see some of Pat Connaughton or Sion James. I don’t think this team is good, but I also
don’t know what this team is for both the present and the future, especially if
Ball’s career continues to go as it has been.
X-Factor: I
know he missed most of last season due to injury, but it really feels like
Charlotte is squeezing Tre Mann out of the rotation, which I never really
understood given his skillset. While
he’s likely never going to be a starting guard, he is a good shooter and solid
playmaker, which, coupled with his aggressiveness, makes him an ideal backup
combo guard. On top of that, while he’s
only 6’3, he should be able to play alongside LaMelo Ball offensively because
Ball is so big and Mann is such a good shooter that he should be able to have
no problem alongside a passer as good as Ball (the issue there is on the
defensive end, but they’re not making the playoffs anyways, so they might as
well play around a bit). They acquired
several players who are guards or wings this offseason, and I question if this
is their way of having an insurance plan in case Ball is injured or their way
to replace Mann. Mann is only 24 and is
making $8M for the next couple seasons; I think he makes the most sense to hang
onto and see what they have in him.
Washington Wizards
I understand if someone was to look at this team and be
confused about what they were doing, especially after they traded away Kyle
Kuzma and Jordan Poole to get back Khris Middleton and CJ McCollum as the
player side of the trade (both players they got back are arguably not as
talented as the players they sent out at this point in their careers), but they
made it clear they’re doing what is likely the right thing: they have all these young guys and wanted to
bring in some reliable veterans who are respected and have contributed in major
ways to winning teams. While they don’t
have a clear star at this point (though they have a few with interesting
potential), I truly believe Alex Sarr is a special player; while he is still
raw on both ends of the court and will have his difficult moments (especially
on offense), he looked like a solid NBA defender by the end of the season,
despite turning 20 at the end of the season.
Bilal Coulibaly looked so good during his rookie year and got off to a
hot start last season, but struggled after getting injured, especially with his
jumper; if he can improve and look even better than he did in his rookie year,
he can be an impressive talent. Their
other young players include Bub Carrington (an aggressive scoring guard whose
shot and finishing were streaky, though he oozes with talent and confidence), Tre
Johnson (a rookie wing/scoring guard who can make difficult shots at an
insanely high rate), Kyshawn George (a big shooting guard who projects to be an
interesting off-ball option and possibly a 3-and-D player), Cam Whitmore (an
aggressive scoring forward who is surprisingly efficient for his shot
selection), AJ Johnson (a raw young guard with great athleticism and some
interesting potential), Will Riley (a rookie whose long-term key role player
potential excited a lot of scouts in the draft process), and Justin Champagnie
(a breakout player from last year who is a good shooter and solid finisher with
some defensive upside). Their veterans
include Khris Middleton (a Bucks legend who is still a good shooter and hard
worker), CJ McCollum (a great shooter and scorer who is beloved by the league),
and I guess Corey Kispert (a great shooter who has a high IQ and is a great
mover off the ball). I don’t expect that
they’ll be good yet, but they definitely are going in the right direction. Obviously not all the young players will pan
out (odds are that most won’t), but they have built an infrastructure that will
give their young players the highest likelihood of making it, which is something
they have struggled with for many years.
X-Factor: On a
team with several young players and some key veterans, where on earth does
Corey Kispert fit? He has only played 4
seasons and has never played in the playoffs (though this is because he is in
Washington), but he is turning 27 this season, is a great off-ball mover, and is
a hard worker by all accounts I’ve read.
He will absolutely be able to demonstrate the right routines to do with
the players on the team and help the young players make the right plays, but he
will also listen to Middleton and McCollum with learning how to create winning
habits. On the court, his off-ball
ability makes him so easy to fit on any team, even if he isn’t the best
defender, so they should try to keep him around in case they start getting good
while he is on his current contract.
Brooklyn Nets
With Brooklyn’s lineup going into this year, it’s safe to
assume that this will be a bad year given that they have so many young players,
so many rookies, and only a few players who would currently be starters on a
competitive team. While there were a lot
of questions about their draft strategy, in which they selected a ton of ball
handlers, I would say that they’re so bad that they might as well give anything
a try with the goal of maximizing talent.
Their leading scorer will likely be Cam Thomas, who is a prolific scorer
and good shooter; the interesting thing to watch is that he is on a qualifying
offer, so I wonder if he will try to showcase winning play or scoring ability
to show off for other teams. The other
player who will probably get a lot of looks on offense is Michael Porter Jr.,
who had thrived in an off-ball role in Denver, especially since he is a great
shooter, but I’m wondering if he will be able to demonstrate the on-ball
ability that he demonstrated in high school and made him one of the top
recruits of his high school class. They
also have a few NBA players who have proven to be solid players, including Nic
Claxton (a skilled big who is a great defender and finisher), Terance Mann (a
3-and-D wing who has been inconsistent over the last couple seasons), and
Haywood Highsmith (a 3-and-D combo forward who is also a good finisher). They are going to try trotting out 5 rookies
who might not fit cleanly together in Egor Demin (a big point guard who is an
elite playmaker but struggles at everything else), Nolan Traore (an athletic
point guard who is good with the ball in his hands), Drake Powell (an athletic
wing with defensive upside), Ben Saraf (a big point guard who is a good
playmaker), and Danny Wolf (a big who loves passing). They also have other young guys who have
shown glimpses, including Ziaire Williams (an aggressive scorer who was more
efficient last year than he was prior), Noah Clowney (a big whose jumper has
improved drastically), Jalen Wilson (a solid shooting forward), Day’Ron Sharpe
(a good finishing big who is still raw, but is improving defensively), and
Tyrese Martin (a solid shooting wing). I
have no idea who they will play or who will be with the team at the end of the
year, but we’ll see which young players who have potential and have success as
the season goes on.
X-Factor: I
feel bad for Nic Claxton at this point, since he doesn’t make any sense with a
team that is not trying to win and is clearly miserable. He looked in disbelief when he set a great
screen and got wide open in the paint, only for the ball handler to not even be
aware of how a pick and roll play even works.
He also ended up getting a ton of technical fouls, and I think that was
just because he was so frustrated that nobody on the team knew how to play
winning basketball (or even cared). Instead
of discussing an X-Factor (I don’t think there’s any saving this team), I will
instead use this section as a plea to save Claxton from this team. His skillset makes sense with a team that is
looking for a big (especially one that is competitive and has a good point
guard), and it makes sense for Brooklyn to take a solid offer to trade him and
then try someone like Noah Clowney, Day’Ron Sharpe, or Danny Wolf in a larger
role.
West
Oklahoma City Thunder
Last season, Oklahoma City won 68 games while several
players missed time during the season; what’s stopping them from topping 70
wins? While there’s some injury concerns
already (Thomas Sorber being out for the season, Kendrich Williams being out for
at least 6-8 weeks, Nikola Topic being out for at least 4-6 weeks, and Jalen
Williams still dealing with his injury), I think they are going to be
better. It all starts with their
superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is the reigning MVP and is one of the best
offensive players in the game, especially as a scorer, while also being a very
good defender. Jalen Williams has also
emerged as a superstar after having an All-NBA season, as he is an amazing scorer
and defender while also developing into a solid playmaker. Chet Holmgren is an elite defensive player
who is also a strong offensive player, though he already has dealt with
injuries in 2 of his 3 seasons. They
also have Luguentz Dort (an elite defensive player who has emerged as a great
shooter), Isaiah Hartenstein (an excellent rebounding and defensive big), Alex
Caruso (an elite perimeter defender who is a good shooter), Cason Wallace (an
elite perimeter defender who has also been an efficient scorer and shooter
immediately), Aaron Wiggins (a great shooter and finisher who is really
creative at finishing difficult shots), Isaiah Joe (an amazing shooting guard),
Kenrich Williams (a great shooting forward who is a solid defender and appears
to love playing in OKC), Jaylin Williams (a backup big who has developed a nice
jumper), and Nikola Topic (a redshirt rookie who could have success in the role
that OKC was planning on using Josh Giddey off the bench had they not traded
him). While it’s possible that the team
takes it a little easier in the regular season, I still think they should be
the top team in the West, if not the NBA.
X-Factor: OKC’s
elite defense was the biggest part of their dominant season last year, and the
fact that they have elite defenders off the bench just makes things even better
for them. While most of the focus was on
Alex Caruso (who is an elite defender), Cason Wallace is such an excellent
player for this team. He is already an
elite defender, and he isn’t even 22 yet (his birthday is in November); he’s such
a good defender that there are times that he played at the end of close games
on defense. On top of that, he has also
been a solid shooter and efficient finisher off the ball. While he hasn’t done as much on the ball, I
think he has a lot of potential as a creator on the ball. He really is such a key player who would be a
starter on a lot of teams.
Denver Nuggets
While Denver was very good last season, I think they could
be better this year due to how deep they are this year. They still have Nikola Jokic, who is one of
the best players in the game since he is a 6’11 center who can do anything on
offense (for crying out loud, he’s coming off a year where he averaged a
triple-double and topped 41% from 3 on 4.7 attempts per game); I can’t say that
I’ve seen anything quite like him. Their
second best player is still Jamal Murray, who is an amazing combo guard when healthy
and consistent, but he has always dealt with injuries and had stretches where
he was incredibly inconsistent; as much as I’d like to question if he can shake
these off, he is 28 at this point, so that might just be what he is. They also have Aaron Gordon (an excellent
finisher and versatile defender who has been a perfect fit alongside Jokic), Cam
Johnson (a sharpshooting forward who should fit into the Michael Porter Jr.
role successfully on offense), Christian Braun (an athletic shooting who is a great
cutter and has improved each season), Jonas Valanciunas (a strong backup big
who is a great big and rebounder), Bruce Brown (a versatile forward and great
defender who will be back in Denver after two years of wandering in the
desert), Tim Hardaway Jr. (a great shooter who is underrated at creating his
shots and moving off the ball), Payton Watson (an athletic young wing who is a
good defender and improving offensive player), Julian Strawther (a skilled
shooter and finisher), Jalen Pickett (a solid shooting wing), and DaRon Holmes
(a redshirt rookie who is projects to be a solid shooter and rim
protector). While their core is largely
the same (the Porter for Johnson swap is the biggest change), the improvement
of their depth is going allow them to be a lot better in my opinion; I really
like this team this year. Even if their
depth doesn’t work, they still have Jokic.
X-Factor: After
years of trying to find a backup center ever since Mason Plumlee left in free
agency after the 2019-20 season, Denver might have found their guy in Jonas
Valanciunas. The goal in the Jokic-less
minutes is not to replace Jokic, but to not ruin everything they built, which
is what happened ever since Plumlee left.
His rebounding, strength, and post play make him a good backup, as he
demonstrated in Washington and Sacramento.
The biggest question from that is if he can ever play alongside Jokic; I
don’t see it for more than 2 minutes, but there is an entire regular season to
see if it’s possible.
Houston Rockets
Look, I know that Fred VanVleet is going to miss the entire
season, and while that will certainly sting, they should still be a great team
even without him this season. They did
trade for Kevin Durant for a reason, and while he shouldn’t need to do quite as
much as a desperate Phoenix team (and an oft-injured Brooklyn team) needed, he
still should be their top scorer and will fit in very well with the team due to
his offensive talent. Despite tailing
off with efficiency a bit, Alperen Sengun had an excellent year last year; he
is an impressive offensive talent in the post as a scorer and passer while also
being a good rebounder, though the defense hasn’t been great. So many people are convinced that Amen
Thompson is about to have an exceptional year, and I am one of them; while he
already demonstrated an impressive skillset with excellent defense, finishing,
rebounding, and athleticism, as well as an improving (though still bad) jumper,
he should get to showcase more of the playmaking that made him the 2nd
best player on my unofficial big board ahead of the 2023 Draft (while I didn’t
officially release it, I alluded to the fact that I thought he was the second
best player after Victor Wembenyama, which made me feel a bit lonely on an
island since everyone loved Brandon Miller and/or Scoot Henderson…and some
loved Ausar Thompson more). They also
have Jabari Smith (a great shooter and defender who can guard either forward or
center spot comfortably), Tari Eason (an elite defender who is also a great
shooter and finisher), Dorian Finney-Smith (a 3-and-D power forward who is so
low maintenance), Steven Adams (an incredibly strong center who is a great
rebounder and screener as well as a reliable defender and finisher), Reed
Sheppard (a great shooter who Houston will really need to have a great year), Clint
Capela (a big who should have success in a rebounding role off the bench), and
Josh Okogie (an excellent perimeter defender whose offensive game leaves
something to be desire); as needed, they can also play Jae’Sean Tate, Jeff
Green, and Aaron Holiday, all of whom can offer something and would get more
playing time on a team that isn’t as deep.
While there are going to be some difficulties without VanVleet (I had
them as the 2 seed prior to his injury), I don’t get why some analysts are
questioning if they’ll even be the 4-seed; they were the 2-seed last year and
got Durant and Finney-Smith, both of whom I think will make them better, as
well as have guys that can improve some more.
X-Factor: After
Fred VanVleet went down with an injury, it became clear that Reed Sheppard, who
was already expected to have a bigger role, will really be essential at the
point guard spot. His playing time
fluctuated significantly throughout the season, but he still showcased some of
his shooting ability that made him a reasonable pick at 3rd in the
draft. That said, his lack of
athleticism made it clear pretty quickly that his ceiling as a finisher and
defender will be capped, which wasn’t particularly surprising to me, especially
since his college defensive metrics were high due to the number of steals he
compiled. What they need from him is to
be competitive defensively this year and to improve as a playmaker; if he
struggles with these, he will have to come off the bench, which will cause a
little bit of a challenge for Houston (while they can make it work with Amen
Thompson at the 1, I think they would prefer him get some off-ball
opportunities due to his cutting and off-ball movement, which is great).
Los Angeles Clippers
I know most of the focus this season will be surrounding the
investigation related to alleged salary cap circumvention (for more information
on this, I would highly recommend listening to Pablo Torre’s podcasts about
this topic; he has done an excellent job on reporting this story), but I think
they will be a very good team that is incredibly deep for the second year in a
row. If he’s healthy, Kawaii Leonard is
one of the best players in the league on both ends of the court; the problem is
that he has played more than 60 games once since 2016-17 (the last season
before his playoff injury). While he’s
lost a step or two and isn’t as good at getting into the paint, James Harden is
still an amazing player due to his playmaking and shooting; he’s also a nice
pairing with Leonard due to his consistently good health. Harden’s presence has also allowed Ivica
Zubac to emerge as a star; he’s an elite defender, rebounder, and finisher who has
been the perfect pairing with Harden in particular. They also have Bradley Beal (an elite shooter
and scorer who will fit better in this role than he did in Phoenix), Bogdan
Bogdanovic (a great shooting wing who can be a nice secondary playmaker in
stretches), Brook Lopez (a great shooter and defender who is great at boxing
out and will be a nice fit off the bench despite losing a step), Chris Paul
(who is still an elite playmaker and is reliable despite being 40), John
Collins (an athletic 4 who is a great finisher and solid shooter), Derrick
Jones Jr. (an elite athlete and finisher who is also a great defender and solid
shooter), Kris Dunn (an elite defensive guard), Nicolas Batum (a skilled
forward who is an amazing role player for this team), and Yanic Konan
Niederhauser (a raw but athletic rookie big man who could be a nice rim
runner). They do have a lot of older
players on this team, but I think they have the depth to counter these issues.
X-Factor: Last
year, the hidden gem on this team was Derrick Jones Jr. because he was a
high-level sub for Kawaii Leonard who could also start alongside him. Most NBA fans know that he is an elite
finisher and dunker due to his Slam Dunk Contest success, but his game has
developed to be much more than that. He
is also a great defender and a solid shooter who showed that he can be
successful at either forward spot, which allows him to get even more playing
time. He has improved as a cutter off
the ball as well, which makes him such a natural fit. If Leonard is injured, he can easily fill
into the role of starting 3 or 4; if Leonard is healthy, he can either be a
starting 4 or a backup forward who can provide a spark immediately.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota could be better than this, though I have some
reservations with their depth and fit.
Either way, Anthony Edwards has already emerged as one of the best
players in the game while only 24; he is a great finisher and shooter while
also working super hard on defense (though he does lose focus or watch the ball
a bit when he’s defender off the ball). It’s
to the point that Rudy Gobert is probably underrated, as he is still an elite
defender at the age of 33 while also being a strong finisher (though he does
have moments where he wants to try a bit too much on offense, which isn’t
always the best result); I like his fit with Edwards. The biggest question is how Julius Randle
will fit, as he was a bit of a clunky fit despite playing well in the playoffs;
he is a good player who is best suited as a second or third option on a
competitive team, but his on-ball focus and inconsistent jumper makes him an
awkward fit at times. They also have
Jaden McDaniels (an elite and versatile defender who is one of the most
underrated players in the league), Naz Reid (an elite shooting and scoring big
who has thrived in a role off the bench), Mike Conley (a steady point guard who
is still a great shooter and nice contributor despite losing a step at the age
of 38), Donte DiVincenzo (an athletic 2-guard who has become a nice 3-and-D guard),
Terrence Shannon (a wing who showed glimpses as a 3-and-D player in his rookie
year), Jaylen Clark (a strong defender who is a low maintenance offensive
player), Rob Dillingham (an athletic guard who is small but showed glimpses of
his potential), Johnny Juzang (a solid shooting wing with nice size), and Joan
Beringer (a raw but athletic young big).
I have my concerns about just how good this team will be, but I think
they will be an awesome defensive team and a good enough offensive team to at
least be competitive.
X-Factor: With
Mike Conley showing the natural decline that is expected from a 38-year-old and
Nickeil Alexander-Walker joining Atlanta in free agency, there are three
options of who to have playing the backup point guard: Donte DiVincenzo (who is more of a 2-guard,
but should have success in the role), Anthony Edwards (who can do it, though I
think it is better to not wear him too thin), or Rob Dillingham, who I think
they’ll be banking on during the regular season at least. He didn’t play a ton as a rookie because he
was pretty raw, but he showed glimpses of why I was high on him entering the
2024 Draft (I had him 6th on my board despite my general hesitation
to favor small guards). He is explosive
at getting to the rim and was a solid shooter in limited attempts. While he struggled at times to finish at the
rim, I think that will improve with experience.
He will always have limitations as a defender due to his size, but I
think he can be a good enough offensive player to outweigh them; Minnesota needs
him to be given their lack of depth of natural point guards.
Los Angeles Lakers
I’m not sure what to do with this team; I think they’ll be
good and will make the playoffs, but it feels weird to have them anywhere
between 4 and 10 (that said, I don’t think they’ll be top-3 or bottom-5). The interesting thing to watch is that LeBron
James will miss the start of the season due to sciatica (I’ve had that on a
recurring basis and it is not fun, so I feel for him), and to see how he looks
once he is back; that said, the good news is that usually that isn’t going to
keep people out for too long unless it is a really bad case (my bouts usually
don’t last more than a week, and it literally comes because I don’t know my
limits with my body and overdo it in anything).
They do have Luka Doncic for the full year, who is one of the best and
most complete offensive players in the game; I think he will be better this
season now that he will have some more chemistry with the team (especially with
LeBron James, once he returns from injury) and since he reportedly is in great
shape. Whenever LeBron James returns to
play, I think James will be great having another lead playmaker to take some of
the burden off of him, something that helped him at previous stops as well; the
fact that he is still a top 10 or 15 player in the league at the age of 40
(turning 41 in December) is wild, especially since he improved his shooting
throughout his career to supplement his amazing finishing and elite playmaking. While I’ve gone back and forth about whether
Austin Reaves is a star, his shooting and scoring could make him an All-Star
this year if the Lakers exceed expectations, though he has been an
underwhelming defender throughout his career.
They also have Rui Hachimura (a strong finishing power forward who has
developed a nice jumper), Deandre Ayton (a big with tons of potential on both
ends, though his lack of consistency and focus has prevented him from reaching
his ceiling), Marcus Smart (a competitive and aggressive defender who is an
underrated playmaker, though a bit too trigger happy with his shot), Gabe Vincent
(a solid backup guard who is steady off the ball), Dalton Knecht (a young
sharpshooter who trailed off after L.A. tried to trade him), Jarred Vanderbilt
(a great defensive power forward/undersized center, though he is limited
offensively), Jake LaRavia (a combo forward with an intriguing all-around
skillset), and Jaxson Hayes (a big who is a solid defender). I think the biggest storyline with this team
could be defensive struggles with their starting lineup; if they struggle
early, it will be interesting to see if they change their starting lineup.
X-Factor: While most
of the focus of L.A.’s roster has been their rotation of bigs, their shooting
is something that will be interesting to watch.
While they have several players who are good or great shooters, very few
appear most comfortable off of a catch-and-shoot 3, which is valuable to space
the floor for players like Luka Doncic and LeBron James; on top of that, most
of their good shooters appear to also love the midrange, which isn’t horrible,
though it does make the court a little less spaced. Dalton Knecht is their best shooter in terms
of comfort level from deep, but there is a bit of an issue: after L.A. tried to trade him, neither side
seemed particularly interested in him playing, reaching the point where he
played fewer than 4 minutes during the playoffs. L.A. needs his shooting, and Knecht needs to
play well if he does in fact want to be traded so that the demand for him can
exist more.
Golden State Warriors
I understand why some are so high on this team considering
the names, top-end talent, and depth, but there is the possibility for
injuries, implosion, or wear-and-tear, especially considering the age of many
of their players and the precocious situation they have with
personalities. Stephen Curry is still
one of the best shooters and offensive players in the game who is a constant
threat (even without the ball due to his elite off-ball movement), though his
health and usage are worth watching (he is 37, for crying out loud). They acquired Jimmy Butler, who was a good
fit due to his IQ, scoring ability, and defense, but he is an inconsistent
shooter and inevitably will miss games (the last time he played 65 games was
2018-19, and the last time he played 70 games was 2016-17, a mark he has
reached twice in his 14-year career), especially now that he’s 36; the other
thing to watch is that he has burnt just about every bridge available due to
his personality, which will interesting to watch, especially due to the next
star I’m going to discuss. Draymond
Green is still an amazing defender and playmaker who has such a high IQ, though
he appears allergic to shoot and inevitably will miss around 15 games a year
(which isn’t shocking since he’s 35); he also has been a bit of a ticking time
bomb over the last few years, so that will be something to monitor, especially
with Butler also on the lineup. They
also have Brandon Podziemski (a great 2-way wing with a boatload of skills), Al
Horford (a great shooter and defensive big, though he probably will be extended
a bit too much as a 39-year-old starting big), Jonathan Kuminga (an immensely talented
and athletic forward who is still a bit raw, though his relationship with the
team might be non-existent), Buddy Hield (a sharpshooting wing who is always
healthy), Moses Moody (a nice young 3-and-D wing who is consistently
improving), Trayce Jackson-Davis (a solid backup big who is a good athlete,
finisher, and defender), Quentin Post (a nice shooting backup big), Gary Payton
II (an elite defensive guard who is a nice finisher, though is oft-injured), De’Anthony
Melton (an elite defensive and solid shooting combo guard who is coming off
injuries), and Gui Santos (a solid finishing and defending combo forward). If all goes well, they could be an amazing
team, though I have serious concerns about injuries (especially with their
older players) and personality clashes resulting in the team imploding.
X-Factor: I get bored
using the X-Factor to discuss the most discussed role players, but Jonathan
Kuminga has to be the guy here. While
he’s still raw, he is an insane athlete and talented finisher who has shown
glimpses as a scorer, defender, and passer.
The issue is that the Warriors haven’t known how to utilize him. Their policy with young players for several
years has been if a guy made a mistake, no matter how raw they were, they
pulled them. There are three obvious
issues with this: the regular season is
the perfect time for young players to learn from mistakes, young players are
inevitably going to make mistakes, and Kuminga’s scouting report pretty much
included in bold text that he was raw and would need reps. Both sides have made it clear that they don’t
want him in Golden State anymore, which is going to be interesting to watch,
especially since they have two other personalities in Jimmy Butler and Draymond
Green that can be, for lack of better words, combative.
San Antonio Spurs
I’m a little torn about this team since they have upside
with their young talent (including one of the best players in the game already
prior to turning 22), but there is still raw talent and talent that fits
awkwardly. The good news is that they
have a generational talent in Victor Wembanyama who is now cleared to play
basketball again; he is already an elite defender and shot blocker (while he
doesn’t qualify for the career record yet, he has more career BPG than anyone
in NBA history) while also demonstrating nice ability as a shooter and
finisher, as well as some ball handling potential (though they’re better suited
with him not being the primary playmaker if they want to win now). While they weren’t expecting to end up with
tons of guards when they traded for De’Aaron Fox (jumping up to the 2 pick and
being able to draft Dylan Harper was not something they could have planned for
when Fox was available), Fox should be an interesting pairing with Wembanyama
due to his athleticism, scoring ability, and underrated playmaking; while Fox
isn’t a good shooter or defender, he works hard at both of those, which will be
beneficial for the younger players to see.
It is worth seeing how long that Fox is out due to his injury, since
he’s unlikely to miss the start of the year.
They also have Devin Vassell (a 3-and-D wing who also has some
playmaking ability), Stephon Castle (a guard with great size and a high IQ who
is the reigning Rookie of the Year and looked really good in the second half of
the season), Harrison Barnes (a sharpshooting combo forward who is so
underrated and is beloved by all teammates), Keldon Johnson (an athletic
forward who is a nice finisher and aggressive scorer), Dylan Harper (a big
rookie guard who might have his struggles this year, but I am very high on his
upside), Jeremy Sochan (a versatile forward who has been a bit of an awkward
fit at times with the team), Kelly Olynyk (a great shooting big who is an
underrated passer), Julian Champagnie (an efficient shooting and finishing
wing), Luke Kornet (a nice backup big who is a good finisher and defender,
though his “Kornet Contests” piss me off to no end), and Carter Bryant (a
rookie wing who a lot of people are high on due to his potential 3-and-D
ability, though I am low on him). There
will be growing pains due to some clunky fits, but this team could be good
enough to be a playoff team.
X-Factor: When
Jeremy Sochan was drafted in 2022, I praised the Spurs for this pick because I
loved his upside, comparing him to a raw Ben Simmons, with his playmaking
upside and athleticism being what I was most impressed by. There have been a few issues with how we have
reached a point where it doesn’t make sense for the Spurs to offer Sochan an
extension. First, the playmaking has not
particularly developed. Second, the
defense isn’t all that good yet (it’s improving, but not there). Third, the jumper is still bad. Fourth, and most importantly, I couldn’t have
predicted the team would look like this at that time, and he is now an awkward
fit with the team. While he has improved
his finishing ability, he needs to improve at least one other skillset to be
league average for him to be a worthwhile player off the bench; right now, I’m
not sure if he is going forward.
Portland Trail Blazers
I’m sure that a lot of people are going to be lower than me
on Portland, and it’s possible that I’m wrong, but even without Damian Lillard
for this year, I think this team will be a lot better than they were over the
last couple of seasons. It is worth
noting that they have a few players dealing with injuries, as Scoot Henderson
is going to miss the start of the season and Robert Williams hasn’t been
cleared for contact quite yet. Deni
Avdija isn’t a traditional star, but he has improved so much over the last
couple seasons that he now is their best player; he can do everything well on
the court (I enjoy his decision making when he is driving downhill), and I
think that he can have a huge season as long as they don’t do something dumb
like benching him in favor for Jerami Grant.
Even though his shot selection and defense are not the most consistent,
Shaedon Sharpe looks like a special player; his scoring ability is something to
marvel at, and I wonder if his shot selection improves with the veteran presence
that is there. They also have Toumani
Camara (an elite defensive forward whose shot has developed nicely), Jrue
Holiday (an elite defensive guard and good shooter who is an amazing teammate
and brilliant basketball player who can succeed on and off the ball), Scoot
Henderson (an athletic young guard who is improving drastically as a shooter,
finisher, defender, and playmaker), Donovan Clingan (a young big who has looked
good as a rim protector, finisher, and rebounder, though he still fouls a ton),
Jerami Grant (an athletic forward who had a tough season last year and has
struggled to be in a comfortable role on a winning team), Matisse Thybulle (an
elite defender whose jumper is improving), Robert Williams (an amazing defender
and finisher when healthy, though he is almost never healthy), Yang Hansen (a
rookie big who will be raw, but has an interesting offensive skillset), and
Kris Murray (a solid finishing forward who is also improving as a
defender). While health will play a big
role in this season, I think this team will improve significantly, especially
on the defensive end; I think they’ll try really hard to win games during the
regular season.
X-Factor: As I
alluded to, the main thing preventing Deni Avdija from having a huge breakout
year is if Portland decides that Jerami Grant should start over Avdija. Grant had a bad year last season but was
still one of the starters (likely because I expect they’re trying to see if
they can find a trade partner for his current big contract). In the 2019-20 season, Grant thrived as a
sixth man/spot starter in Denver who was so versatile, but he opted to sign
with Detroit to be their star. While he
put up scoring numbers in Detroit, he struggled with efficiency and could not
contribute to winning. The same thing
has happened in Portland as a top 2 guy, though the efficiency improved when he
was playing with Damian Lillard. Now
that he hasn’t played in the playoffs since he was in Denver in 2020, would he
rather play a bench role for a team competing or play a starting role for a
disappointing team? I think he has value
as a bench player for them, but I wouldn’t be shocked if this doesn’t happen.
Dallas Mavericks
This team had a strange season that was followed by a bit of
an unusual offseason, but I also have no idea what this team is going to be,
especially with injuries. I don’t think they
will be as injured as they were last season, but I don’t think they are as
well-constructed as they likely think they are; I especially have concerns about
their playmaking. Anthony Davis is an
amazing talent who is an elite defender, is skilled with the ball in his hands,
and is a great rebounder when healthy; the issues are that he is often injured
(he has topped 70 games just 3 times in his 13-year career, and they’ll need
him to top it this year) and has not had much success with wins as the top
player on a team, though he was with an inept New Orleans team for many years,
to his credit. Kyrie Irving is currently
injured, and while I don’t want to predict when he’ll be back, I wouldn’t bank
on him playing until the new year, after which he might need some recovery
time; the good news is that he is an elite offensive player and scorer who has
recovered well from significant injuries in the past, so that will be good news
if Dallas doesn’t overextend him too soon (the bad news is that this is a
possibility). While I’m not sure that
Cooper Flagg will be a star instantly, I think he will be a very good player
due to his defensive IQ, shooting, and playmaking upside; I could see Dallas
overextending him as a playmaker instantly or play him out of position, which
could cause some growing pains, but I still think he’ll be good this year. They also have Klay Thompson (one of the best
shooters in NBA history who is still an elite shooter at the age of 35, though
his defense has declined significantly), P.J. Washington (a skilled bigger
forward who has improved drastically defensively), Dereck Lively (a young
center who is already an excellent finisher and paint defender, though he is
often injured), Daniel Gafford (a great finisher and rim protector who has
played the best basketball of his career since being traded to Dallas), D’Angelo
Russell (an aggressive scoring guard who is a good scorer and good shooter,
though his shot selection is terrible, as is his defensive effort), Dante Exum
(an oft-injured guard who has totally revamped his efficiency and career since
joining Dallas), Max Christie (a great shooter with 3-and-D upside, though he
needs to improve the defense), Naji Marshall (an impressive finishing forward
who played well in a heightened role last year), Caleb Martin (a solid shooting
and defensive wing who is coming off an injured season), and Jaden Hardy (an
aggressive scorer and good shooter who needs to improve his shot selection and
defense). With the number of bigs on
this team and lack of guards, it is clear that they built this team for Luka Doncic,
who is gone; the biggest problem is that it is not ready for injuries, as they
have several oft-injured players.
X-Factor: With Kyrie
Irving out to start the season, Dallas needs someone to fill the role of point
guard. They will likely try the newly
signed D’Angelo Russell as their starting point guard, which will have its
issues due to his shot selection (the number of times he takes a contested deep
2 instead of an open 3 makes no sense, though he at least is better), isn’t a
natural playmaker, and doesn’t even try defensively. When he’s not on the court, who will be the
lead playmaker? The natural answers will
likely be Cooper Flagg (I don’t love him doing that as a rookie, especially if
Dallas is trying to win), Jaden Hardy (who I have always been high on, but he’s
not a playmaker), or Anthony Davis (because Dallas isn’t going to try to
overextend the oft-injured Davis enough…please for Davis’s health don’t bank on
this), but the answer needs to be Dante Exum.
Since returning to the NBA with Dallas, he has been freakishly efficient
(his eFG% with Dallas is almost .100 higher than that of his career, albeit on minimal
attempts), has been an improved playmaker, has been an elite shooter (albeit on
small sample size), and has looked better than ever defensively. The problem is that, like most of his career,
he has been injured; Exum has been limited to just 75 games across 2 seasons
and only played 20 last year due to a broken hand. While I love him as a combo guard, he makes
sense in the role given the number of good passers on this team, though they
need him healthy in order to make this happen.
Memphis Grizzlies
While there might be focus on the Desmond Bane traded,
breaking up a trio that had so much promise but didn’t amount to much, all I
can say is that the injuries are already starting, as Jaren Jackson Jr. just
returned from turf toe and both Zach Edey and Brandon Clarke will miss the
start of the year due to injury. There’s
also the question of whether Ja Morant is the best player to build around, as
he has limitations on the court (he is an inconsistent shooter and defender),
is often injured (has topped 65 games just once in his 6-year career), and had
multiple suspensions already; that said, he is a great playmaker and explosive
finisher who should rebound from a down season with a better offensive
system. While there is a lot of focus
of Jaren Jackson Jr’s lack of rebounding, he is still an elite defender and
good shooter who has made it clear that he can be one of the top players on a
competitive team. They also have Kentavious
Caldwell-Pope (a great 3-and-D perimeter player who will likely rebound off a
rough season), Jaylen Wells (a versatile and efficient shooter and finisher who
had a nice rookie year last season), Zach Edey (a big who has adapted to the
NBA much better than I expected), Ty Jerome (a talented offensive guard who had
a breakout season last year), Santi Aldama (a solid shooting and finishing big
who has been a solid defender off the bench), Scotty Pippen Jr. (an impressive
guard who has become one of the better backup guards in the league; it’s crazy
how Memphis keeps doing this), Brandon Clarke (a great backup big who has often
been injured), Cedric Coward (an athletic rookie wing who has skills, but might
be a tad raw), and GG Jackson (an aggressive young scorer with interesting
upside). If healthy, they will finish
higher, especially since they are deep, but I’m not optimistic that they will
be healthy given the last few seasons.
X-Factor: I’ve
always tried to be honest about when I’m wrong with this blog (I think it’s
better and more refreshing, especially since people are wrong all the time,
especially me), and while there were several players I think I was too low on
in the 2024 Draft (including Matas Buzelis, Isaiah Collier, Ryan Dunn, and Kyle
Filipowski), I think it is safe to say at this point that I am wrong about Zach
Edey, as I thought he would be a 15-20 MPG center, but already showed that he
can be a starting center on a playoff team.
I think the biggest thing I was wrong about him with his immediate
success was just how strong he was, which benefited him immediately in the
paint on both ends; while not the fastest, it didn’t appear as though the NBA
is too fast for him, which is something I was expecting. The other major factor was that his IQ is
high, and while I thought his IQ would provide him with a role in the NBA, I
didn’t feel like he made as many mistakes as most rookies and young players
make. Now the biggest question that
could change this team: how good can he
become? I would try utilizing a
pick-and-roll game between him and Morant a ton, which could be potent due to
Edey’s strength and Morant’s elite speed, which gives him a key role
immediately. Memphis has tried having
him attempt some 3’s, and while it’s been a minimal sample size, the results
have been promising (34.6% on 56 attempts).
I also thought he had some playmaking potential, which is something that
could be utilized if Morant is ever off the court. Even if he doesn’t improve a ton, he’s a
starting level player who has easily exceeded my expectations.
Sacramento Kings
Leave it to the Sacramento Kings to have one amazing year, get
stressed after a disappointing year, make a panic move, then make several panic
moves and ruin everything they ever built.
The result is a team that makes no sense on either end, likely resulting
in a poor offense and defense, and I think the Keegan Murray injury will make
matters even more difficult. They still
have Domantas Sabonis, who is an exceptional rebounder, passer, and finisher
and has been great in the regular season, though his defensive struggles make
it difficult to built around him in the playoffs (though Sacramento is a tough
sell to make it that far). DeMar DeRozan
is an underrated player at this point, as he is a great finisher who is
impressive at getting to the line and is also a good playmaker, though he isn’t
a good defender and is an awkward fit with a lot of teams, including this
one. While I have been torn about Zach
LaVine throughout his career due to his lack of defense and winning, but he is
an explosive athlete and scorer who is an efficient shooter and scorer. They also have Keegan Murray (a nice combo
forward who is a solid shooter and finisher while a decent defender, though he
will miss the start of the season due to injury), Malik Monk (an aggressive
scorer and solid shooter who has been perfect in the bench role in Sacramento),
Dennis Schröder (an aggressive score-first guard who can be a playmaker at
times, though he is also best suited off the bench), Russell Westbrook (a
freakishly athletic guard who is still great at boosting the pace and attacking
despite the fact that he is turning 37 in November), Keon Ellis (a young wing
who already looks like a nice 3-and-D player), Dario Saric (a solid shooting
backup forward/big who is coming off an injury), Devin Carter (a young guard
who is a good defender but is coming off a largely lost rookie year due to
injuries), Nique Clifford (a rookie wing who projects to be an off-ball
shooter), and Maxime Raynaud (a rookie big who is a nice shooter and
rebounder). I expect they’ll at least
compete for the Play-In, but I don’t like or understand this team. If there aren’t many teams in the West that
are dealing with injuries, I think they’re in danger of finishing 14th.
X-Factor: On a
team where there are so many guys who need the ball in their hands and like to
score, it is natural to think that the key player would be a guy who is more of
a natural playmaker, but you already have some very good passers in Domantas
Sabonis and DeMar DeRozan. As such, the
key to this team is getting role players who are consistently good shooters and
defenders, which means that I’m referring to Keon Ellis. He is almost exclusively off the ball (his
usage of 12.7% is so low), but he has a great off-ball shooter on offense. On the defensive end, his versatility is
necessary for a team that has a lot of poor defenders surrounding him. I think he is the perfect starter for this
team, but I don’t expect them to do that, which will be a big loss for the
team.
New Orleans Pelicans
I get that there will be hate for New Orleans due to their
weird and disappointing offseason, but I genuinely do not understand or like
this team. They made moves to try to
improve the team, but they’re building a team that includes key roles from
several oft-injured players or players who have not helped team success,
although I don’t believe they will be quite as injured as they were last
season; it is worth noting that Kevon Looney is already injured and Dejounte
Murray is still out. They are still
trying to bring back a team built around Zion Williamson, who is an amazing
offensive player and finisher when healthy; the issue is that he isn’t healthy
(he’s topped 62 games once since he was drafted in 2019) and hasn’t been a good
defender, so he hasn’t been a good player to build around. While I’m not certain if he is a star, Trey
Murphy looked amazing when healthy last year, and he appears to be more than a
3-and-D player that I thought he would be, as he demonstrated some more on-ball
ability last year; that said, he is elite off the ball, and has thrived off the
catch. They also have Herbert Jones (an
elite defender who has improved dramatically as a shooter as well), Dejounte
Murray (a skilled offensive player who is best suited as a third option so he
can also thrive defensively), Yves Missi (a talented finisher and rim protector
who is still a bit raw, but had a promising rookie year last year), Jordan
Poole (a talented offensive player who hasn’t been the best contributor to a
team), Jose Alvardo (a pesky guard who is a steady backup while causing chaos),
Kevon Looney (a high IQ big who played very well with Golden State, though he
had two tough seasons), Jeremiah Fears (an athletic rookie guard who is raw but
could be better with NBA spacing if he develops to his potential), Jordan
Hawkins (a nice shooting wing who is coming off a tough season), Derik Queen (a
skilled rookie big who is raw and might be a bit of a clunky fit with this
team), Saddiq Bey (a streaky shooter with nice size who is coming off an
injury), and Karlo Matkovic (a big who is a good finisher). I don’t want to be too callous and say that
they don’t have much of a chance of competing, but I genuinely am not sure how
they will pull it off this year. What’s
worse is that they aren’t motivated to lose since they traded the worst of
their pick and that of the Bucks to Atlanta, so they are in trouble if they
struggle and Milwaukee doesn’t.
X-Factor: A
team is usually in trouble when Jordan Poole is their X-Factor. While he had success as a bench player in
Golden State, his shot selection and lack of effort on defense have not
resulted in success in a role more than that.
The problem is that they need him as their starting point guard as long
as Dejounte Murray is injured since Jeremiah Fears probably will need time to
develop. I don’t see the fit going
particularly well with New Orleans as a starter. The way that they make the playoffs would be
if everyone is healthy, everyone meshes well, and Poole plays like a winning
player; the issue is that he would have to play in a different style than he
ever has at the age of 26, which doesn’t usually happen.
Phoenix Suns
I don’t understand this team at all; while there are some
interesting pieces, the entire team seems to be shooting guards, centers, and a
few small forwards, but I don’t know how any of these will fit, especially
since I don’t think several of their players are good enough to play key roles
on a winning team yet. Their star is
still Devin Booker, who is an amazing offensive shooting guard who is a great
scorer, shooter, and good playmaker, though he has dealt with some injuries,
isn’t a consistent defender, and isn’t best suited for the primary point guard
role that they will likely have him play (while he’s a good shooter, his
playing style is more suited to be a shooting guard). Their second option offensively is likely
Jalen Green, who is an aggressive scorer and solid shooter, though he is a
streaky shooter and has poor shot selection; on top of that, I expect that the
fit with Booker will be really clunky since their playing styles don’t pair
particularly well (he also is nursing an injury, so we’ll see how long he’s out
for). They also have Dillon Brooks (an
awesome defender who has a streaky shot, though you never have to worry about a
lack of confidence), Mark Williams (a raw big who has upside as a finisher and
defender, though he is almost always injured and still has a lot of development
left), Grayson Allen (a sharpshooting guard who is an underrated athlete,
though an inconsistent defender), Ryan Dunn (an amazing defender who is a
decent finisher and shot better than I expected as a rookie), Royce O’Neale (a
solid 3-and-D forward despite being a tad undersized for a 3/4), Nick Richards
(a solid traditional big who is perfectly suited to be a solid backup), Khaman
Maluach (a rookie big who is a little raw, but I am very high on due to his
size and skillset), Oso Ighodaro (a solid finisher and smart player who has
some playmaking upside and is a solid backup big), Collin Gillespie (a nice
shooting big who had success last season as a backup point guard), and Rasheer
Fleming (a rookie who could be a solid 3-and-D player due to his size, though
he is limited offensively). Maybe I’m
being too harsh, but I don’t even know what the path to success for this team
would be; unless several teams deal with injuries and they outperform
expectations, I don’t know how they make the Play-In. Something important to note is that even
though they still have Devin Booker, he has previously thrived while the rest
of the team around him struggled because it was an incompetent build, like how
the team was constructed this year.
X-Factor:
Somehow, Phoenix has constructed a lineup without a starting-level point
guard after having difficulties with playmaking last season. The lone true point guard on this team who I
expect will get playing time on this team is Collin Gillespie, who is a good
shooter and decent playmaker. His
shooting should warrant playing time, especially since he is a serviceable
enough playmaker and defender off the bench.
The issue is that I expect that Phoenix will not necessarily want him on
the ball, which will put other players in situations that are probably a bit
much for them. While Gillespie is a good
player off the ball, I think their path to success (or at least as much as
there can be with this team) is also having him operate on the ball when he’s
on the court to run the offense.
Utah Jazz
Let’s cut to the chase and say that this team is unlikely to
try to win this year, but that’s not an issue given where they are in their rebuild,
especially since they should be trying to develop their players and figure out
who makes sense as a piece for the future.
I’m not certain who will get playing time this season, but I would
expect that there will be younger players who get more playing time as the
season goes on. Lauri Markkanen had a
bit of a down year last year (though part of that was Utah not trying to
optimize their odds of winning), but he is still a great shooter, scorer, and
rebounder who would easily fit as a second or third option while playing at an All-Star
level in either role; I’m not sure what his long-term fit with a rebuilding
team, but he is still a nice player to have due to his ability. I think Ace Bailey has gotten a bad rap due
to playing for a bad team in college (it wasn’t entirely his reason that they
stunk; the team genuinely wasn’t good outside of him and Dylan Harper) and from
his then advisors giving odd draft advice, but he is a talented player who
should be an impressive scorer and shooter; I also think that he could be a
good defender while improving as a playmaker as well. They also have several young players,
including Walker Kessler (an excellent defender, rebounder, and finisher,
though neither side seem to be totally thrilled with this marriage for some
reason), Keyonte George (a solid shooter and aggressive scorer who is improving
rapidly as a playmaker), Isaiah Collier (a raw and inefficient scoring guard
who already looks like an impressive playmaker), Brice Sensabaugh (an efficient
scoring wing with a smooth jumper), Kyle Filipowski (a big who is an impressive
finisher and shooter, making him look like he’ll be a great backup big at worst
if the defense doesn’t develop), Taylor Hendricks (a young forward with 3-and-D
potential, though he has rarely been healthy), Cody Williams (an athletic young
wing who had an atrocious rookie season), and Walter Clayton (a good shooter
who I am low on, though he has a nice handle and could find a role in
Utah). While I don’t expect their
veterans will play much down the stretch, we could see some of Jusuf Nurkic,
Kyle Anderson, Kevin Love, Georges Niang, and Svi Mykhailiuk. While they won’t be good this year, the good
news is that they have some players who might be something. They will play those players a ton, which is
what they should good, and hopefully at least a couple players look like key
parts of their future.
X-Factor:
There are very few situations where a rookie is better on defense than
he is on offense because almost all rookies are poor defenders; while sometimes
it is because a player is an NBA-ready defender (like Ryan Dunn last year or
Ausar Thompson the year before), the reason Cody Williams was better on defense
was because he was bad on both ends, but absolutely atrocious on offense. I was a little lower on him due to his poor
finishing and unwillingness to shoot, and in retrospect I probably should have
been even lower (I think that I was scared that I was missing something since
many scouts were much higher on him).
While I think he can naturally improve defensively, he needs to improve
on offense if he is ever going to be an NBA-level player, as I believe his best
value on offense is that a team that is rebuilding can play him to improve
their draft lottery odds by losing a ton with him.
What are you looking forward to this season? Who do you think will win the Championship? Let me know in the comments!
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