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Showing posts from March, 2025

2025 Women's March Madness

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Now that the men's tournament for March Madness has begun, the women's tournament is about to start!  Like the men's tournament, even though nobody really knows what's going to happen, let's pretend we have a clue! There are 4 metrics I use for the men's tournament: record against top-25 teams (one that has been really good in the early rounds), three-point percentage (surprisingly more valuable than other offensive metrics, even more than attempts), free throw percentage (teams that struggle at the line typically are eliminated early), and defensive rating (unlike on the men's side, this usually is beneficial, especially in the early rounds). There are usually several teams that fair well overall or are poor at several, so few teams are perfect fits.  There are many teams that have a shot of winning it all, making it a little difficult to predict the winner.  I currently have UConn beating South Carolina, but I don't feel good about this result. Someth...

2025 Men's March Madness Predictions

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We have again reached the most exciting time in college basketball, the NCAA tournament (more frequently referred to as March Madness)!  It is what I consider the perfect time for people to pretend to be experts and have the perfect measurements to predict what is happening, but never get any of it right...so I'm going to do exactly that; at least I'm self-aware of it! There are 4 metrics I use for the men's tournament: draftable players (the one that has been the best indicator of success, it determines the number of potential draft picks on each team while giving credit based on experience; champions almost always have a score of at least 10, and most Final Four teams do as well), three-point percentage (surprisingly more valuable than other offensive metrics, even more than attempts), free throw percentage (teams that struggle at the line typically are eliminated early), and defensive rating (while strong offenses tend to be more reliable in the college level, a team who...