2025 Men's March Madness Predictions

We have again reached the most exciting time in college basketball, the NCAA tournament (more frequently referred to as March Madness)!  It is what I consider the perfect time for people to pretend to be experts and have the perfect measurements to predict what is happening, but never get any of it right...so I'm going to do exactly that; at least I'm self-aware of it!

There are 4 metrics I use for the men's tournament: draftable players (the one that has been the best indicator of success, it determines the number of potential draft picks on each team while giving credit based on experience; champions almost always have a score of at least 10, and most Final Four teams do as well), three-point percentage (surprisingly more valuable than other offensive metrics, even more than attempts), free throw percentage (teams that struggle at the line typically are eliminated early), and defensive rating (while strong offenses tend to be more reliable in the college level, a team who is poor defensively and isn't elite offensively is unlikely to advance to the Sweet 16).  There are usually several teams that fair well overall or are poor at several, so few teams are perfect fits.

As often, there are several teams that have a chance to make it far.  In particular, there are 11 teams that have a draftability score of at least 10 (though it's worth noting that Arkansas have the highest score of 21 due to having several sophomores who were former top recruits who could potentially be drafted late, though they have no shot of actually winning the tournament, let around 2 rounds), and 21 with a score of at least 5, neither of which happen often.  As such, this year is going to be difficult to predict, especially since some of the top teams have injury questions.  That said, I have Auburn beating Alabama, though I don't feel amazing about it.

The format of this post will be different than usual.  Normally, I discuss several teams at depth and include upsets and potential upsets, but I am only going to discuss individual teams that are interesting briefly based on their metrics more than anything.  There are two reasons for this: I am writing this on a phone due to my computer being repaired, and I am currently out of the country on vacation.

Interesting Teams

These teams are either competitive or have some interesting variance.

Auburn

Surprisingly, there are many instances where the overall number 1 does not win the tournament (the team seeded in this position is most likely to win it all, but it's far from a lock, which isn't surprising due to the number of possible outcomes).  Even this year, Auburn is the best team, but is not an overwhelming favorite in my opinion; I was curious of they would be the overall number 1 seed due to their late season struggles.  They are the third best team in draftability with 17 (they are the best if you omit Arkansas, who I acknowledged as a strange outlier in the intro, and a team dealing with injury issues who I'll discuss soon), largely due to star redshirt senior Johni Broome, who could end up sneaking into the first round.  They are also 15th in 3-point percentage, 30th in free throw percentage, and 33rd in defensive ratings; while there should be concerns that none of these are in the top-10, they are at least average in each while being elite in the draftability ranking.  It's also worth noting that they likely have an easy path to the Final Four.

Alabama

Alabama is a team that does not make any sense to make it as far as I project them due to their poor free throw percentage (50) and defensive rating (60) while only being an average team from deep (35).  They are really riding on a high draftability rating with 14 (5), a fairly easy path with one major exception (the Elite Eight matchup is the biggest test), and some injury luck with their opponents.  One thing to watch is that star Grant Nelson is questionable due to a knee injury, though I think they can make it to the Sweet 16 without him healthy.

Florida

A lot of people have Florida winning it all, and while there are some metrics that are concerning, I totally get it.  They are 9th in draftability with a score of 10 due to some older players helping their rating.  They also are 27th in 3-point percentage, 51st in free throw percentage (that's one of my bigger concerns about them), and 18th in defensive rating.  Their schedule is going to be tough, as they could (if my predictions come true) face a reigning two-time champ in UConn (though they have been inconsistent), Maryland and potential lottery pick Derick Queen, and an interesting Kansas team before facing Auburn prior to the championship.

Gonzaga

This is a strange team to select for the Final Four, as Gonzaga is an 8-seed.  I don't focus on seeding due to a focus by the committee on late-season surges and conference tournament results, neither of which are as much of an indicator of success as the committee make it appear; that said, it is worth noting that I think Gonzaga should have been at worst a 6 seed.  While they could have to face some difficult teams, including Houston, Tennessee, and Kentucky (one of the strangest teams in the tournament).  I originally had Gonzaga not making it this far, but something happened that changed my mind.  Even still, they're 8th in draftability with 12, 39th in 3-point percentage, 2nd in free throw percentage, and 19th in defensive rating.

Duke

This entire season, I have been torn about how Duke will fare.  On one hand, they are very young, which almost never results in a long tournament.  On the other hand, their blend of experienced players, competitive young players, and balanced team reminds me of the 2015 Final Four (and undefeated until that point) Kentucky team, which only had 3 seniors who played a combined 25 games.  I think the fact that they have multiple older players who are valuable separate them from the 2019 Duke team that was led by 4 highly touted freshman (even though Tre Jones was drafted the next year, I'm grouping him here) that stumbled their way to the Elite Eight because UCF just barely lost and Virginia Tech just missed an easily makeable shot.  They are 6th in draftability with 14 (Alabama holds the tiebreaker due to older players), 8th in 3-point percentage, 7th in free throw percentage, and 3rd in defensive rating.  The biggest thing to watch is how healthy Cooper Flagg is after his recent injury; this is the reason I have Alabama beating them.

Kentucky

If it weren't for injury concerns, I would have Kentucky in the championship game (incidentally, this would give an entirely SEC Final Four).  They are 2nd in draftability with 19 (that is such a high score to not have winning the tournament, and yet they aren't even the top, which really showcases how strange the Arkansas situation is), 9th in 3-point percentage, 31st in free throw percentage, and 64th in defensive rating (this is a big concern).  They are better coached than the last few years with Mark Price in his first year with the team, but there are several key role players injured, including Jaxson Robinson, which has prevented me from having them go far.

Tennessee

Tennessee would likely not be making a run for the Elite Eight if Kentucky were healthy, but they have a balanced team and a path that isn't the most competitive.  They are 14th in draftability with 8, 40th in 3-point percentage, 27th in free throw percentage, and 9th in defensive rating.  This is similar to their team two years ago, where their defense was great but none or the other metrics stood out; that said, I think their offense is better this year.

Kansas

Kansas is one of the stranger teams in this year's tournament, as they are a lower seed, have been inconsistent this year, and haven't been stellar at any metric besides draftability (4th in that with 16, but 31st in 3-point percentage, 52nd in free throw percentage, and 23rd in defensive rating).  I want to compare them to Creighton a couple years ago, who were in the Elite 8 and only tested well with draftability (the only reason I didn't have them going past the second round was because they faced Baylor, who I had going to the Finals), but they're more inconsistent than Creighton, which makes it tougher to be convincedconvinces.

Arizona

I want to believe in Arizona again (I had them winning last year because their draftability rating was significantly higher than everyone else's), especially since their draftability ranking is still good (they're 11th with 10).  The biggest reason I'm not sold on them is because their other metrics aren't as good outside of free throw percentage (8th in that, but 59th in 3-point percentage and 45th in defensive rating).  I'm also a bit scared of putting all my trust into Caleb Love again; while the highs in his scoring ability are so high, the lows were rough.

Iowa State

Iowa State has no business going far if you just look at their draftability ranking (19th with 6) and are good but not elite in their other metrics (25th in 3-point percentage, 16th in free throw percentage, and 14th in defensive rating).  Why am I so high on them given these?  They have an easy schedule where they'd likely face either a worse 2-seed in my metrics with Michigan State or a 7-seed in Marquette.  From there, even though they'd face Auburn, it is only one game to make the Final Four.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin is one of the strangest team I've ever seen in the tournament for one reason: they are a 3-seed with a draftability score of 0.  As for their other metrics, they're 26th in 3-point percentage, 1st in free throw percentage, and 47th in defensive rating.  The best comparison that comes to mind is the 2021 Ohio State team, who was a 2-seed with a draftability rating of 0 and lost in the first round; the difference there is that Ohio State that year wasn't as good at free throw percentage and lost by 1 while shooting around 50% from the line; I don't see that happening with Wisconsin, though I also don't see them winning much.

UConn

I only put them here because they're the two-time reigning champions.  Do they honestly have a shot?  Sure, they have a draftability rating of 9 and their metrics are ok, but I'd be stunned if they beat Auburn.

Texas Tech

Texas Tech's draftability is only 5 (22nd), but they are 6th in 3-point percentage, 12th in free throw percentage, and 29th in defensive rating.  On top of that, their path to the Elite Eight could be easier, especially if Kansas falters early.

St. John's

I get that they're the flavor of the week because they won the Big East and they have Rick Pitino leading the way, but I'd be stunned of they made the Elite Eight.  They have an amazing defense (2nd), but that's it; their draftability is 7 (16th) and their shooting is atrocious (66th in 3-point percentage and 63rd in free throw percentage).  I think it would be more shocking if they made it to the Elite Eight than if they lost in the first round, which is bad for a 2-seed.

Michigan State

I have seen some discuss Michigan State as a championship contender, but I'm going hard the other direction.  Their draftability rating is only 3 (39th) and 3-point shooting is atrocious (65th).  It's worth noting that they are 9th in free throw percentage and 16th in defensive rating.

Houston

Houston has a draftability rating of 9 (12th) and is 1st in 3-point percentage, 28th in free throw percentage, and 1st in defensive rating.  Why am I so low on them?  Only because they're facing Gonzaga.  If they win in the second round, they're probably going to end up in the Final Four at worst.

Michigan

I want to acknowledge Michigan since they have a draftability rating of 10 (9th).  That said, they are 48th in 3-point percentage, 42nd in free throw percentage, and 35th in defensive rating, so they probably shouldn't be treated as a contender.

Baylor

Baylor has been inconsistent all year and are 33rd in 3-point percentage, 25th in free throw percentage, and 49th in defensive rating.  That said, they have a draftability rating of 13 (7th).  I don't think they'll go too far, especially since they'll likely be matched up against Duke in the second round, but the draftability is favorable for them.

My Bracket

Due to getting a screenshot on my phone, it isn't as good of a picture as usual; my apologies about this.

Who do you have winning the tournament?  Are there any matchups you are interested in?  Let me know in the comments!