Things I Saw in the Bubble

 

Now that the NBA is planning to begin its next season with trades beginning today, let’s take a trip back down memory lane and discuss something that’s been beaten to death:  The NBA Bubble.  The Bubble was certainly controversial in ways and resulted in complaints from some, but there was good that came out of it:  a champion was crowned, nobody got Covid-19, and Jimmy Butler founded a coffee business.  In all seriousness though, there were several things that I saw in the Bubble and playoffs that I’d like to discuss; some are specific to the Bubble, some are specific to the playoffs, and some seem to be trends starting or that have continued for years.

 

The Bubble worked

The Bubble was controversial at first due to its high cost and use of several tests that would not be available for the public.  However, this controversy seemed to fizzle out after the season resumed and the basketball was exciting and played well.   Ultimately, the most important things for the Bubble to be successful were for a champion to be crowned and nobody to get Covid-19.  Both happened, but there was more that came out of it.  An additional goal of the NBA and the Players Association was to partner with Yale to have a more efficient Covid-19 test completed, which a saliva-based test has been developed and is currently being expanded.  The goal was to create an accurate, effective, efficient, affordable, easy, and readily available test, which has been accomplished.  Additionally, the players were able to incorporate more social justice causes and reform than they probably would have been able to otherwise.  From the start, allowing kneeling during the anthem, “Black Lives Matter” to be written at half court, and messages to be written on the jerseys showed that they were more willing to work with the players in that regard than the other major leagues will likely be in the foreseeable future.  Additionally, after players boycotted games in the wake of the Jacob Blake shooting, the Players Union worked with the owners and league to start a social justice coalition, agree to a plan for donations, and a push to help individuals vote.  It is also important that the league was able to announce a plan to resume before the MLB and begin before the NFL started.  Realistically, the MLB should have been the first due to the lack of contact involved compared to the others, but the tension between the players and owners that had been subtly brewing for the last few years stalled their plan.  Even though the MLB started shortly before the NBA, there was more talk about how long it took to prepare it and, for the first month, how many cases of Covid-19 there were.  The NBA needed to begin before the NFL because they would get killed in the ratings (more than they did by the end at least) otherwise.

 

Multiple stars and strong role players continue to be necessary to win

It’s no secret that the contending teams tend to have multiple stars.  In fact, there have only been nine champions in history that had only one All-NBA player or player who was considered a star at that point, and most of those teams either had players named in the previous years before or would be stars later.  These teams include 2011 Mavericks (Dirk Nowitzki), 2004 Pistons (Ben Wallace; Chauncey Billups was named one in future years), 1994 Rockets (Hakeem Olajuwon), 1979 Supersonics (Dennis Johnson; Jack Sikma wasn’t quite there yet), 1975 Warriors (Rick Barry; Jamaal Wilkes wasn’t quite there yet), 1951 Royals (Bob Davies), 1948 Bullets (Buddy Jeannette), and 1947 Warriors (Joe Fulks).  Further, there are only two champions with one player who was All Star, Hall of Famer, or All-NBA Player in the previous three seasons to that point:  the 1948 Bullets and the 1947 Warriors, who were both playing when it was still the BAA.  The point is that stars drive the league.  The Conference Finalists for this year included the Lakers with two clear superstars (LeBron James and Anthony Davis), the Heat with a superstar and a young star as well as two players who played like the part in the playoffs (Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Goran Dragic, and Tyler Herro), the Celtics with two stars and a player approaching it (Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker, and Jaylen Brown), and the Nuggets with one superstar and a player who played the part in the playoffs (Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray).  These teams also had a substantial amount of depth, which is typical among winning teams.  Typically, the champions have quality role players and former All-Stars who pair with the stars, and the Lakers had some underrated players in the Bubble.  Despite missing Avery Bradley (opted out due to family reasons), they still had Rajon Rondo (playmaker, defensive intensity, and leadership), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (3-and-D wing), Kyle Kuzma (additional scoring option and improved defender), Danny Green (3-and-D wing), Dwight Howard (big man), JaVale McGee (big man), Markieff Morris (hard-nosed player who can also score and defend well), and Alex Caruso (energy guy who can also defend decently well and score enough).  While some of these players struggled at times (especially Green), many of them thrived in their roles (especially Rondo and Caldwell-Pope).  Given the lack of a clear third option that many teams had, they needed these players to shine and they did.

 

The big man could make a comeback

Ever since Golden State won by utilizing small ball lineups and using the “Lineup of Death”, the league has tried to mimic that and go smaller.  However, Miami made it through the East while having Bam Adebayo dominate any matchup thrown at him.  In the West, Portland struggled to contain the Los Angeles Laker’s size and Denver’s Nikola Jokic struggled against the combination of Dwight Howard, Anthony Davis, and JaVele McGee.  Expect teams in the East to try to acquire big men to contain Adebayo while teams in the West try to match up against the Laker’s size (even with Howard’s free agency).  The most notable free agent in this offseason is Anthony Davis, but I expect he’ll resign with the Lakers.  I expect the most sought-after free agent centers will be less expensive players who can average 20 minutes per game at a strong level such as Howard, Nerlens Noel, Aron Baynes, Marc Gasol, and Derrick Favors.  Serge Ibaka would cost more but should also be sought after.  While Tristian Thompson is also a good fit with a lot of teams, I expect him to resign in Cleveland.  Other free agents include Mason Plumlee, Hassan Whiteside, Jakob Poeltl (RFE), Bismack Biyombo, John Henson, and Ian Mahinmi.  I expect the trade market will be more fruitful for this position.  I expect Myles Turner will be traded this offseason and will be targeted by many teams due to his defensive ability and his shooting. The availability of Rudy Gobert is a little murky given the new owner, but Andre Drummond is a possibility.  Despite the off-year, I expect Al Horford will be traded.  Some others include Jarrett Allen, Cody Zeller, Gorgui Dieng, Steven Adams, and Dewayne Dedmon, but some of those might be bought out instead.  While they are rawer, Robert Williams and Mo Bamba could garner some attention as well.

 

There could be some wacky moves this offseason

It was already expected to be a strange offseason with not much cap space, not a lot of elite players available this year, and several stars that could be available next year.  Add to the mix that the top 3 picks aren’t as coveted as they are in many other years while several other players could be sought after in the remainder of the lottery.  Overall, I expect most of the movement made will be done via trade instead of free agency considering very few teams have the cap space for a major free agent.  I also think we will have the Timberwolves and the Warriors trying to trade away their top-2 picks while several other teams explore trading for picks 4-12.  I think that this is reminiscent of 2013 when there were several valuable players available outside of the top few picks.  Some of the names I expect will garner some trade attention are Chris Paul, Myles Turner, Victor Oladipo, Jrue Holiday, Gordon Hayward (Player Option), Buddy Hield, Al Horford, and Robert Covington.  While some free agents struggled in the Bubble, such as Danilo Gallinari, Hassan Whiteside, and Montrezl Harrel, there were others that probably earned themselves a raise, including Fred VanVleet, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Goran Dragic, Dwight Howard, Patrick Patterson, and Rajon Rondo.  Jerami Grant, Paul Millsap, Nerlens Noel, Marcus Morris, D.J. Augustin, Justin Holiday, and Serge Ibaka also are among the players that will probably be able to find a job easily.

 

The best teams made the Finals

One critique about the playoffs in the bubble was that the teams should have been ranked 1-16 instead of by conference so that the best teams could have played in the Finals.  There are two reasons this argument is baseless:  the results would have probably been similar, and the best teams did make the Finals.  If the playoffs were ranked 1-16, the only first round matchups that would have been different would be Toronto vs. Portland, L.A. Lakers vs. Brooklyn, Indiana vs. Oklahoma City, and Houston vs. Miami.  I would consider it safe to assume Toronto and Los Angeles would win their matchups.  While the other two are tougher, I would say OKC would probably win theirs.  Suppose Miami won their matchup.  If that happened, then the second-round matchups would be Milwaukee vs. Miami, Toronto vs. Oklahoma City, L.A. Lakers vs. Denver, and L.A. Clippers vs. Boston.  In this case, we still have Milwaukee and Miami playing against each other, so I see no reason for Milwaukee to beat them just because we changed who Miami played in the first round; the same goes for the Lakers-Nuggets series.  I would guess Toronto would beat Oklahoma City.  Since the Clippers struggled in the Bubble, I would be shocked if they could beat Boston, which would mean they would still lose in the second round in this version as well.  This results in a “Conference Finals” of Toronto vs. L.A. Lakers and Boston vs. Miami.  I would guess that the Lakers would beat the Raptors for the first one and we saw Miami beat Boston, which gives us the same Finals matchup of L.A. Lakers vs. Miami.

Further, I would argue that the teams that advanced in each round were the better team.  In the first round, there were only a few teams that made a case in other circumstances.  Indiana was a shell of itself without Domantas Sabonis and a fully healthy Victor Oladipo, Philadelphia was hopeless without Ben Simmons, and Oklahoma City was in trouble when both Danilo Gallinari struggled and James Harden suddenly played defense.  In the second round, the Lakers were obviously better than the Rockets and the Celtics were slightly better than the Raptors.  The Heat played better in their series than the Bucks did.  For the Bucks, Khris Middleton shot 41.7% from the field (compared to 49.7% during the season), Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 21.8 PPG (compared to 29.5), Eric Bledsoe shot 33.3% from the field (compared to 47.5%), and George Hill shot 33.3% from deep (compared to 46.0).  On top of that, they were unable to stop Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic, and Bam Adebayo.  Dragic was guarded by Bledsoe and Adebayo was guarded by Brook Lopez, both of whom were on an All-Defensive Team this year.  While Defensive Player of the Year Antetokounmpo should have been guarding Butler, he guarded Jae Crowder instead and allowed him to shoot 42.4% from three.  As for the Eastern Conference Finals, it became very evident while watching that the Heat played like they wanted to win the series and the Celtics did not.  As a Celtics fan, I was glad they lost that series because after playing hard in the first two rounds, it looked like they gave up by the Conference Finals.  The Heat were the best team in the East during the playoffs and deserved to get out of the East.  

It’s no secret the adversity and hardships the Clippers faced:  they had chemistry issues, Lou Williams really wanted some wings, Montrezl Harrell had a death in the family that prolonged his return, Paul George couldn’t take responsibility, George and Kawhi Leonard didn’t play as they would, Patrick Beverley was constantly in foul trouble, and nobody was the leader they needed.  There were several players whose scoring was down across the board:  Leonard’s 24.3 PPG and 44.2% from the field were down from 27.1 and 47.0% during the regular season (in 7 fewer minutes), George had 21.7 PPG (he had 21.5 during the regular season in 7 fewer minutes), Williams shot 35.4%, Landry Shamet shot 29.2%, and Reggie Jackson went 1-5 in limited playing time.  Beverley shot very well from the floor but committed 26 fouls during the series.  Harrell shot very well from the floor in fewer minutes than usual but was totally outmatched against Nikola Jokic.  JaMychal Green and Ivica Zubac played better than Harrell, but Rivers still opted to play the Sixth Man of the Year despite his struggles.  Ultimately, the Nuggets (especially Jokic and Jamal Murray) outplayed them while their bench was more reliable.  The Nuggets were the better team after Game 1 which is why they won the series.  The Clippers were often passive in the final games during the series and the Nuggets played hard consistently.  If a team does not play like the best team during a series, that means they are not the better team during that series; in the playoffs this year, the Nuggets were better than the Clippers.  Additionally, the Lakers were clearly better than the Nuggets and Heat.

 

It makes sense to try to avoid a bubble in the future

As I mentioned previously, the Bubble was a resounding success.  Nobody caught Covid inside the Bubble, the NBA finished the season, the owners and players teamed up to at least take steps towards empowering players regarding social/political views (a long way to go with that though), and the individuals involved largely bought in to do what needed to be done.  However, there were several factors that eliminate the possibility of a future bubble.  First, it cost too much to be ideal.  Commissioner Adam Silver referenced in an interview with Sports Illustrated that so much money was invested in the Bubble that they didn’t make a substantial amount of money from doing this.  Additionally, there were times that players seemed uncomfortable with the entire situation and would be doubtful to approve this for an entire season.  Additionally, now that the MLB has completed their season without a bubble, the NBA might see that it is possible to pull this off.  I think it will be more telling how the NFL manages considering that the MLB has more flexibility to reschedule games than the NFL and NBA have.

 

There is currently no clear frontrunner for next season

The lack of a definitive frontrunner entering this past season was part of what made this past season so much fun for me, and next year looks to be more of the same entering the offseason.  Pending any major transactions this offseason, the West has the Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, Mavericks, Rockets, and Warriors that could all contend to a greater extent than the other teams, and the Jazz, Trail Blazers, Thunder, Grizzlies, Suns, Spurs, Kings, Timberwolves, and Pelicans as playoff teams.  In short, depending on the circumstances, anyone could be a playoff team in the West theoretically.  I expect the Thunder and Spurs to trade away some of their major parts, the Kings to not be up to the same level as the other teams, the Grizzlies to take a slight step back, the Timberwolves to mightily struggle defensively, and the Pelicans to be too contingent on Zion Williamson’s health to make the playoffs.  As for contenders, I don’t think the Rockets have the flexibility or depth, the Warriors have the depth or bench experience, the Mavericks have the experience yet, and the Nuggets have a definitive third option.  However, I expect each of these teams to make some moves to address these issues.  In the East, the Bucks, Celtics, Nets, and Heat appear to be the clearest frontrunners, but each have their questions.  It feels safe to predict the 76ers, Raptors, and Pacers will make the playoffs, and could each be surprise contenders.  The last spot is probably up for grabs; while I expect the Magic will take a bit of a dip given Jonathan Isaac’s injury, we could see them, the Wizards, Bulls, and Hawks heavily compete for this spot.  The Cavs and Pistons might try to compete, and who knows what the Knicks will try to do.  I don’t expect the Hornets to compete, but it’s possible they surprise.  The Clippers and Bucks are in situations where they need to win the championship, but it’s far from guaranteed that they can with their current roster construction.